When I started the 2018 version of "If the Season Ended Today," it was understood that "Today" would refer to "the All-Star Break." However, the momentum has shifted in a couple of key playoff races between then and now, and I thought it would only be proper to highlight that here in an additional post. Entering play today (the REAL today, Monday, August 6), the Diamondbacks are tied with the Dodgers for the NL West lead, and the Athletics have overtaken the Mariners for the AL's second Wild Card spot. Since division titles are more highly prized in today's system (even though, if the season actually ended today, the co-leaders would be subject to another one-game playoff, although this one would be called "Game 163" rather than a Wild Card Game), let's start with the D-Backs.
Sticking with the All-Star theme, even though it's been nearly three weeks since the All-Star Game, Arizona sent three representatives to Washington for this year's festivities. Slugging Virgo first baseman Paul Goldschmidt was selected to the roster by MLB, and ended up batting cleanup as the DH - right in front of fellow slugging Virgo first baseman Freddie Freeman... who was himself subbed out later in the game for yet a THIRD slugging Virgo first baseman Joey Votto. Nobody said fantasy astrology baseball was fair. The other two ARI All-Stars were pitchers: Patrick Corbin was another MLB selection, while Zack Greinke was picked as a replacement for Jon Lester, although neither actually made it into the game.
In terms of injuries, they're responsible for Jake Lamb's depressed point total - he missed time earlier in the year and recently went back on the disabled list. But one player's crisis is another's opportunity, as utility infielder Daniel Descalso had a chance to shine while filling in for him. A couple of outfielders acquired in the offseason were also hit by the injury bug: Jarrod Dyson (495 points as of the break, 7.4 points per game) is still on the DL as of this writing, while Steven Souza Jr. (112 / 4.9) is active, but the amount of time he missed so far has all but made him a non-factor; plus it opened the door for the trade for Jon Jay. The rotation was bolstered by another oft-injured midseason acquisition - this one by way of a minor league deal - in Clay Buchholz, who has rediscovered some of his old form with 423 points and 60.4 PPG. He was activated a week after the ASG, in a transaction that saw Matt Koch return to the minors.
Moving on to trades made after the All-Star Break, the Diamondbacks made plenty of them, and by plenty, I mean four. The only post-break offensive upgrade sought by GM Mike Hazen was to pick up slugging Twins infielder Eduardo Escobar (1,100 / 12.2) basically as a way to answer Jake Lamb's struggles. The other three swaps were made with an eye toward improving the Snakes' bullpen: a week before the deadline saw them snag long relief specialist / spot starter Matt Andriese (382 / 14.7) from the Rays, then deadline day saw Arizona land a pair of setup arms in their own former closer Brad Ziegler (512 / 10.9) from the Marlins, and colon-less lefty Jake Diekman (348 / 8.5) from the Rangers. However, the most significant bullpen addition might have been when T.J. McFarland (598 / 17.6) was activated from his own DL stint, the day before Buchholz made it back to the active roster. We'll see if this group can hold off the Dodgers and the Rockies for division lead, as all three teams currently trail the two NL Wild Card contenders.
When I wrote about the Phillies in my 30 Teams in 30 Days feature earlier this year, I talked about how teams are often most exciting to watch at the time when they're set to emerge from a period of rebuilding. While that's usually true, another, perhaps even more exciting time to be a fan of a particular team is when, like the 2018 A's, they were not at all expected to contend, and yet something just clicks. All-Stars Jed Lowrie and Blake Treinen lead a very impressive offense and an unexpectedly lights-out bullpen, respectively, but Oakland has had worse injury luck in their rotation than basically any team except their cross-state rival Angels: no fewer than four projected starters have undergone the dreaded Tommy John surgery this year (Kendall Graveman, Jharel Cotton, Daniel Gossett, and prospect A.J. Puk), and that doesn't include currently DL'd starters Paul Blackburn and Andrew Triggs. But the current group of spare parts, including a combination of former A's can't-miss prospects (Cahill and Anderson) and journeyman reclamation projects (Edwin Jackson) have held their own just fine.
The rotation had been so effective that Oakland's front office braintrust of GM David Forst and President of Baseball Operations Billy Beane decided not to add any starters at the deadline. In fact, the only addition the team made before July 31st was former Mets closer Jeurys Familia (with a very strong total of 929 points at the break, at a rate of 23.2 points per game), who presents a bit of a moral quandary for an A's fan to root for, given that he does have a domestic violence suspension on his resume. Speaking of embattled relievers (although not on nearly the same scale), just yesterday the Athletics picked up Shawn Kelley (345 / 11.1) after he was designated for assignment by the Nationals due to attitude problems - specifically "act(ing) like a baby" in a recent appearance. But these cases pale in comparison to the most controversial bullpen trade at the deadline. UPDATE: Just moments ago, the news broke that Forst & Co. claimed on waivers, and then swung a trade with the Tigers for, starting pitcher Mike Fiers (818 / 45.4), a deal that had erroneously been reported to have happened at the deadline. But now back to what I was talking about before.
I did a lot of reading on the subject of Jeurys Familia when he was acquired by the A's. On Halloween night 2016, Familia was arrested on a domestic violence charge, after his wife called the police claiming that he was "drunk" and "going crazy." In the ensuing month and a half, his wife dropped the charges and the case was dismissed. I am aware that there can be mitigating, sometimes sinister, circumstances that can lead to a victim close to their abuser choosing not to pursue such a case further, but it nevertheless sheds some light on the circumstances. Despite the case's resolution, the Commissioner's Office suspended Familia for the first 15 games of the next season, and that was the end of the story. I'm ashamed to say that I had actually forgotten about this whole saga until Familia's name surfaced in trade rumors this year.
The case of former Blue Jays closer Roberto Osuna has played out significantly differently this year. While details of his case have not been made public, at the time of his acquisition by the Astros, Osuna was still in the midst of a 75-game suspension, the second-longest such suspension issued for domestic assault. (The longest, an 82-game ban, was served by Hector Olivera, who hasn't returned to affiliated ball since.) It's important to note that these types of suspensions are at the discretion of the Commissioner, and thus have no legal basis, and tend to be quite reactionary in nature. But it's just as important to note that the assault charges against Osuna have decidedly NOT been dropped and the case against him is still ongoing - his attorneys represented him at a hearing on August 1, two days after the trade went down, and he's scheduled to be in court again September 5, right in the middle of the stretch run.
It's almost surreal to be talking about baseball playoff implications within the framework of domestic violence, but that remains a grim reality, given that a player suspended in this manner is still eligible to compete in the MLB postseason. This is not the case for players suspended for use of performance enhancing drugs, which to me seems like a glaring moral lapse on the part of MLB. It's basically an admission that the organization does not care one bit about a player's character, so long as their actions didn't directly affect their play on the field. But beyond that, it's perhaps an even more glaring lapse on the part of Houston's front office to willingly acquire such a player and put him in the national spotlight of a playoff race. Before the trade, Osuna would have languished on Toronto's restricted list, safely out of contention for the rest of the year, but now the defending World Series champions have abandoned any semblance of pretending to foster a positive clubhouse environment, and laid bare their cold, calculating, win-at-all-costs mentality... which, in fairness, is likely shared by all major sports teams, and all big businesses in general. But that doesn't mean that it's not going to impact the fans (or, in fact, the players) in a negative way.
Roberto Osuna was reinstated from his suspension yesterday, but didn't appear for Houston in their 3-2 loss to the Dodgers. Honestly, the best case scenario for the Astros might be that he pitches poorly for the next month and is subsequently shipped off to Canadian prison in September, effectively removing a potential postseason PR disaster from the table. But part of me wonders if the damage hasn't already been done.
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Showing posts with label If the Season Ended Today. Show all posts
Showing posts with label If the Season Ended Today. Show all posts
Monday, August 6, 2018
Wednesday, August 1, 2018
If the Season Ended Today 2018 Top Seeds
Well, the trade deadline has come and gone, and perhaps predictably so, the two top seeded teams in each league came out of the flurry of moves leading up to 7/31 looking very different than when they went in. But since this feature is stuck at the All-Star Break, we're statistically frozen at 7/16. In this final installment, check out how the Red Sox and Cubs would have lined up If the Season Ended Today (asterisk). First, we'll see how the first MLB team to 70 wins aims to fend off its competitors.
Boston had five All-Stars in the 2018 festivities, second-most of any team. These included two fan elected starters (Libra arbitration hearing winner Mookie Betts in the outfield and Leo offseason acquisition J.D. Martinez at DH), and one manager-elected starter (the pitcher Aries ace Chris Sale, whose recent trip to the DL is going to hurt his cosmic team's chances heading into the stretch run). First baseman Mitch Moreland (who is SO far down the Virgo depth chart at 1B, behind such notable names as Goldschmidt, Freeman, Votto, even Desmond, nevertheless) got two hits in this game coming in as a player ballot substitution. However Gemini star closer Craig Kimbrel didn't enter the game in relief.
It's not evident looking at their win-loss record, but injuries have beset this team's roster in every category. The starting rotation would look much more complete with breakout lefty Eduardo Rodriguez (1,145 / 60.3) instead of rookie spot-starter type Hector Velazquez, even if he is having a fine first full MLB season since making the jump from the Mexican League. Third base is currently occupied by another Eduardo, Nunez, while super utility player Brock Holt is at the keystone, but the upside of young Rafael Devers (940 / 10.6) and the track record of veteran Dustin Pedroia (5 / 1.7, but remember I said TRACK RECORD) would definitely be preferable in the playoffs. And even the bullpen saw a potentially promising weapon go down in Carson Smith (124 / 6.9), whose catastrophic circumstances literally add insult to injury. And that's not even mentioning defensive standout catcher Christian Vazquez (Leon has superior offensive numbers on the year), or starters Drew Pomeranz and Steven Wright (they've played so little this year between them to make a dent statistically).
But luckily Red Sox Prez of Baseball Ops David Dombrowski was active in finding solutions for some of these problems, at least in 2/3 of the areas mentioned above. First was to beef up their bench from the right side with Blue Jays technically-utility player Steve Pearce (447 / 12.4) who was actually the top first base (mostly) eligible player to change teams at the deadline this year. Second and actually foremost was resurgent starter Nathan Eovaldi (420 (blaze it) / 46.7) who is just now returning from multiple Tommy John surgeries. He's one of the reasons why Angels and A's fans should have some hope: true, more pitchers are succumbing to elbow ligament surgery, but more pitchers are also coming back from it... just ask Jonny Venters, another recent trade target. And last but not least, they acquired a ready-made hedge in case homegrown star Pedroia can't take the field at the keystone, Ian Kinsler (755 / 9.2) from the Angels. The number three second baseman on the Cancer Decapods fantasy astrology depth chart - behind injured DJ LeMahieu (922 / 13.0) and multi-position threat Yangervis Solarte (980 / 10.7) - was only the third-highest scoring second baseman moved at the deadline - behind Brian Dozier (1,116 / 12.0), the newest Dodger and Asdrubal Cabrera (1,094 / 11.9) who came to the Phillies several days ago.
While Chicago's NL team has the best record in the senior circuit, they however don't have the most wins: the Brewers have two more, but also two more losses. They also only had three 2018 All-Stars to Boston's (and Milwaukee's) five. Both leadoff hitter / pride of Sagittarius Javier Baez and new Taurus starting catcher Willson Contreras were voted in by the fans, while former Red Sox / current Capricorn starting pitcher Jon Lester was unavailable to pitch. Their lineup was also miraculously devoid of injury at the break - the only unavailable regular Albert Almora Jr. (799 / 9.3) was on family leave. (Of course Kris Bryant has since fallen to the DL thanks to shoulder troubles.) On the pitching side, the loss of Yu Darvish (227 / 28.4) is certainly hurting them, but his ineffectiveness was just as bad before the injury troubles started. Plus Mike Montgomery has settled in as a better option even than another offseason acquisition Tyler Chatwood (288 / 16.9) who it turns out still walks tons of batters, even outside the rarefied air of Coors Field. (And it's important to note that since the break, dependable closer Brandon Morrow has also been placed on the shelf with a biceps issue.)
Bryant's injury did not seem to bother Cubs PBO Theo Epstein too much, but the pitching injuries did, prompting him and his Jed Hoyer-led front office to acquire three pitchers in the deadline season. Two of these pitchers came from the same team (the Rangers), but they have very different roles and very different career paths. Alternating spot starter and long relief specialist Jesse Chavez (530 / 17.7) can add quality length to any bullpen. Former lefty ace Cole Hamels (737 / 38.8) is still being paid like a current ace, despite the decline in raw skills and results. However, he's strictly better than ineffectively wild Chatwood and adds comes with a good postseason resumé to boot. The most recent acquisition, from deadline day itself, was to pick up former Twins closer Brandon Kinzler (306 / 7.7) from the Nationals, where his depressed fantasy point total shows that he had been relegated to middle relief duty in Washington.
So that's it for all the teams that would have been playoff-bound If the Season Ended Today (astersisk). If the season ended TODAY today (i.e. the day after the Trade Deadline), the AL playoff picture would be the same, but in the NL the Diamondbacks would have the edge over the Dodgers and Rockies for the NL West lead. Maybe I can afford to post about one more lineup...
(asterisk) TODAY IS THE ALL-STAR BREAK, I'VE WRITTEN THAT SO MANY TIMES NOW.
Boston had five All-Stars in the 2018 festivities, second-most of any team. These included two fan elected starters (Libra arbitration hearing winner Mookie Betts in the outfield and Leo offseason acquisition J.D. Martinez at DH), and one manager-elected starter (the pitcher Aries ace Chris Sale, whose recent trip to the DL is going to hurt his cosmic team's chances heading into the stretch run). First baseman Mitch Moreland (who is SO far down the Virgo depth chart at 1B, behind such notable names as Goldschmidt, Freeman, Votto, even Desmond, nevertheless) got two hits in this game coming in as a player ballot substitution. However Gemini star closer Craig Kimbrel didn't enter the game in relief.
It's not evident looking at their win-loss record, but injuries have beset this team's roster in every category. The starting rotation would look much more complete with breakout lefty Eduardo Rodriguez (1,145 / 60.3) instead of rookie spot-starter type Hector Velazquez, even if he is having a fine first full MLB season since making the jump from the Mexican League. Third base is currently occupied by another Eduardo, Nunez, while super utility player Brock Holt is at the keystone, but the upside of young Rafael Devers (940 / 10.6) and the track record of veteran Dustin Pedroia (5 / 1.7, but remember I said TRACK RECORD) would definitely be preferable in the playoffs. And even the bullpen saw a potentially promising weapon go down in Carson Smith (124 / 6.9), whose catastrophic circumstances literally add insult to injury. And that's not even mentioning defensive standout catcher Christian Vazquez (Leon has superior offensive numbers on the year), or starters Drew Pomeranz and Steven Wright (they've played so little this year between them to make a dent statistically).
But luckily Red Sox Prez of Baseball Ops David Dombrowski was active in finding solutions for some of these problems, at least in 2/3 of the areas mentioned above. First was to beef up their bench from the right side with Blue Jays technically-utility player Steve Pearce (447 / 12.4) who was actually the top first base (mostly) eligible player to change teams at the deadline this year. Second and actually foremost was resurgent starter Nathan Eovaldi (420 (blaze it) / 46.7) who is just now returning from multiple Tommy John surgeries. He's one of the reasons why Angels and A's fans should have some hope: true, more pitchers are succumbing to elbow ligament surgery, but more pitchers are also coming back from it... just ask Jonny Venters, another recent trade target. And last but not least, they acquired a ready-made hedge in case homegrown star Pedroia can't take the field at the keystone, Ian Kinsler (755 / 9.2) from the Angels. The number three second baseman on the Cancer Decapods fantasy astrology depth chart - behind injured DJ LeMahieu (922 / 13.0) and multi-position threat Yangervis Solarte (980 / 10.7) - was only the third-highest scoring second baseman moved at the deadline - behind Brian Dozier (1,116 / 12.0), the newest Dodger and Asdrubal Cabrera (1,094 / 11.9) who came to the Phillies several days ago.
While Chicago's NL team has the best record in the senior circuit, they however don't have the most wins: the Brewers have two more, but also two more losses. They also only had three 2018 All-Stars to Boston's (and Milwaukee's) five. Both leadoff hitter / pride of Sagittarius Javier Baez and new Taurus starting catcher Willson Contreras were voted in by the fans, while former Red Sox / current Capricorn starting pitcher Jon Lester was unavailable to pitch. Their lineup was also miraculously devoid of injury at the break - the only unavailable regular Albert Almora Jr. (799 / 9.3) was on family leave. (Of course Kris Bryant has since fallen to the DL thanks to shoulder troubles.) On the pitching side, the loss of Yu Darvish (227 / 28.4) is certainly hurting them, but his ineffectiveness was just as bad before the injury troubles started. Plus Mike Montgomery has settled in as a better option even than another offseason acquisition Tyler Chatwood (288 / 16.9) who it turns out still walks tons of batters, even outside the rarefied air of Coors Field. (And it's important to note that since the break, dependable closer Brandon Morrow has also been placed on the shelf with a biceps issue.)
Bryant's injury did not seem to bother Cubs PBO Theo Epstein too much, but the pitching injuries did, prompting him and his Jed Hoyer-led front office to acquire three pitchers in the deadline season. Two of these pitchers came from the same team (the Rangers), but they have very different roles and very different career paths. Alternating spot starter and long relief specialist Jesse Chavez (530 / 17.7) can add quality length to any bullpen. Former lefty ace Cole Hamels (737 / 38.8) is still being paid like a current ace, despite the decline in raw skills and results. However, he's strictly better than ineffectively wild Chatwood and adds comes with a good postseason resumé to boot. The most recent acquisition, from deadline day itself, was to pick up former Twins closer Brandon Kinzler (306 / 7.7) from the Nationals, where his depressed fantasy point total shows that he had been relegated to middle relief duty in Washington.
So that's it for all the teams that would have been playoff-bound If the Season Ended Today (astersisk). If the season ended TODAY today (i.e. the day after the Trade Deadline), the AL playoff picture would be the same, but in the NL the Diamondbacks would have the edge over the Dodgers and Rockies for the NL West lead. Maybe I can afford to post about one more lineup...
(asterisk) TODAY IS THE ALL-STAR BREAK, I'VE WRITTEN THAT SO MANY TIMES NOW.
Tuesday, July 31, 2018
If the Season Ended Today 2018 AL Division Series
Of the teams that would be guaranteed to face each other in one of the American League Division Serieses if the season ended today (but also at the All-Star Break, when this feature is based) one has a fairly insurmountable lead in their division, while the other got off to a tremendous start, but has since seen their competition surge forward. In fact, the former team (the Indians) doesn't even have a better record than the THIRD PLACE team in the division of the latter team (the Astros). But that bit of trivia doesn't mean that one team would steamroll the other were they to match up in a best of five series. Let's check out the roster of:
If it sounds crazy that Houston may have gotten even better than the season where they became the defending World Champions, just remember that we're living in a crazy world. The 'Stros sent six (6!) players to the All-Star game this year, which is a total only matched by (spoiler alert) their projected opponents in this ALDS. Of those six, the only fan-elected starter was diminutive second baseman Jose Altuve, who actually just went on the disabled list for the first time in his career last week. Ace pitcher Justin Verlander was deemed unavailable due to scheduling concerns, and last year's Game 7 hero Charlie Morton was only brought in as a replacement for Aroldis Chapman, and ended up with the first of two blown saves on the night. 2017 World Series MVP George Springer and the AL's lone Home Run Derby participant Alex Bregman both made it via the player ballot, and each player drove in a run during the proceedings. Offseason acquisition Gerrit Cole was the main reason for this team's year-over-year improvements, but his own manager, A.J. Hinch, chose not to utilize him in the All-Star Game.
I n terms of non All-Star acquisitions, Hector Rondon had taken over as the team's closer due to the struggles (and subsequent demotion) of Ken Giles (518 fantasy points in the majors this year, 15.2 points per game). But Rondon will likely be ousted from that role this coming Sunday, when the newest member of the Astros, Roberto Osuna (404 / 26.9), is eligible to come off the Restricted List. The former Blue Jays closer is serving a 75-game domestic violence suspension - a crime for which he is still facing criminal charges and possibly jail time - yet unlike players who have been caught using performance enhancing drugs, Osuna WILL be eligible for the postseason (a gross moral oversight on MLB's part, at least from the perspective of this Philosophy major with a concentration in Ethics). In a less controversial bullpen move, General Manager Jeff Luhnow also just recently acquired high spin rate specialist Ryan Pressly (391 / 8.1) from the Twins. If there's a way to imagine the above-presented lineup getting EVEN BETTER, it's looking forward to the DL activations of shortstop Carlos Correa (977 / 13.4) - whose position is currently being filled by Marwin Gonzalez - and catcher Brian McCann (302 / 6.0) - although the latter's absence was made easier to stomach with the trade that brought in former Gold Glove winner Martin Maldonado (493 / 6.7) from the Angels. Oh, and also consider that the four-man playoff-style rotation I listed above doesn't even include former Cy Young Award winner Dallas Keuchel (899 / 45.0).
As I mentioned above, Cleveland, like Houston, had six All-Star representatives this year, and also like Houston, just one was a fan-elected starter: MLB offensive fantasy point leader Jose Ramirez. In yet another similarity to the defending champs, ace Corey Kluber was unavailable, but the Indians had one more replacement player than the Astros did: emergent co-ace Trevor Bauer stepped in for Verlander (ironically enough) and backstop Yan Gomes took the roster spot (but not the starting lineup spot) of injured fan-elected catcher Wilson Ramos (929 / 11.9). Player Ballot honorees Francisco Lindor and Michael Brantley saw action as late inning replacements, but a sacrifice fly by the latter was the only notable production from the pair.
As is apparent from the ragtag pair of relievers listed behind closer Cody Allen, the bullpen has been a source of weakness all year for Cleveland, owing in no small part to the injury (and ineffectiveness when healthy) of lefty relief ace Andrew Miller (114 / 6.7). Could it be that two postseasons in a row of blatant overuse is finally catching up to him? Either way GM Chris Antonetti went and picked up another lights-out lefty arm for skipper Terry Francona to abuse in the form of Brad Hand (1,190 / 29.0), plus first-year rookie Adam Cimber (463 / 11.0) from the Padres shortly after the break. Miller isn't the only significant injury to befall the Tribe, as both projected right fielder Lonnie Chisenhall (255 / 8.8) and center fielder Bradley Zimmer (220 / 6.5) have both gone down long term, testing the integrity of the team's bench bats (also including Greg Allen, 227 / 5.0) and minor league depth (i.e. Melky Cabrera, 123 / 7.2). Does anyone else see a trade of Adam Jones (878 / 9.5) as a natural fit?
Only one more post to follow: the top-seeded teams in both leagues!
If it sounds crazy that Houston may have gotten even better than the season where they became the defending World Champions, just remember that we're living in a crazy world. The 'Stros sent six (6!) players to the All-Star game this year, which is a total only matched by (spoiler alert) their projected opponents in this ALDS. Of those six, the only fan-elected starter was diminutive second baseman Jose Altuve, who actually just went on the disabled list for the first time in his career last week. Ace pitcher Justin Verlander was deemed unavailable due to scheduling concerns, and last year's Game 7 hero Charlie Morton was only brought in as a replacement for Aroldis Chapman, and ended up with the first of two blown saves on the night. 2017 World Series MVP George Springer and the AL's lone Home Run Derby participant Alex Bregman both made it via the player ballot, and each player drove in a run during the proceedings. Offseason acquisition Gerrit Cole was the main reason for this team's year-over-year improvements, but his own manager, A.J. Hinch, chose not to utilize him in the All-Star Game.
I n terms of non All-Star acquisitions, Hector Rondon had taken over as the team's closer due to the struggles (and subsequent demotion) of Ken Giles (518 fantasy points in the majors this year, 15.2 points per game). But Rondon will likely be ousted from that role this coming Sunday, when the newest member of the Astros, Roberto Osuna (404 / 26.9), is eligible to come off the Restricted List. The former Blue Jays closer is serving a 75-game domestic violence suspension - a crime for which he is still facing criminal charges and possibly jail time - yet unlike players who have been caught using performance enhancing drugs, Osuna WILL be eligible for the postseason (a gross moral oversight on MLB's part, at least from the perspective of this Philosophy major with a concentration in Ethics). In a less controversial bullpen move, General Manager Jeff Luhnow also just recently acquired high spin rate specialist Ryan Pressly (391 / 8.1) from the Twins. If there's a way to imagine the above-presented lineup getting EVEN BETTER, it's looking forward to the DL activations of shortstop Carlos Correa (977 / 13.4) - whose position is currently being filled by Marwin Gonzalez - and catcher Brian McCann (302 / 6.0) - although the latter's absence was made easier to stomach with the trade that brought in former Gold Glove winner Martin Maldonado (493 / 6.7) from the Angels. Oh, and also consider that the four-man playoff-style rotation I listed above doesn't even include former Cy Young Award winner Dallas Keuchel (899 / 45.0).
As I mentioned above, Cleveland, like Houston, had six All-Star representatives this year, and also like Houston, just one was a fan-elected starter: MLB offensive fantasy point leader Jose Ramirez. In yet another similarity to the defending champs, ace Corey Kluber was unavailable, but the Indians had one more replacement player than the Astros did: emergent co-ace Trevor Bauer stepped in for Verlander (ironically enough) and backstop Yan Gomes took the roster spot (but not the starting lineup spot) of injured fan-elected catcher Wilson Ramos (929 / 11.9). Player Ballot honorees Francisco Lindor and Michael Brantley saw action as late inning replacements, but a sacrifice fly by the latter was the only notable production from the pair.
As is apparent from the ragtag pair of relievers listed behind closer Cody Allen, the bullpen has been a source of weakness all year for Cleveland, owing in no small part to the injury (and ineffectiveness when healthy) of lefty relief ace Andrew Miller (114 / 6.7). Could it be that two postseasons in a row of blatant overuse is finally catching up to him? Either way GM Chris Antonetti went and picked up another lights-out lefty arm for skipper Terry Francona to abuse in the form of Brad Hand (1,190 / 29.0), plus first-year rookie Adam Cimber (463 / 11.0) from the Padres shortly after the break. Miller isn't the only significant injury to befall the Tribe, as both projected right fielder Lonnie Chisenhall (255 / 8.8) and center fielder Bradley Zimmer (220 / 6.5) have both gone down long term, testing the integrity of the team's bench bats (also including Greg Allen, 227 / 5.0) and minor league depth (i.e. Melky Cabrera, 123 / 7.2). Does anyone else see a trade of Adam Jones (878 / 9.5) as a natural fit?
Only one more post to follow: the top-seeded teams in both leagues!
Sunday, July 29, 2018
If the Season Ended Today 2018 NL Division Series
If the 2018 MLB season ended at the All-Star Break, the participants in the NL Division Series (the one that would not involve a Wild Card team) would be separated by just a half game: the Phillies and the the Dodgers had the same number of wins, but Philadelphia had one fewer game in the loss column. Looking at the standings heading into play this Sunday, that's in fact still the case. The last time these two teams faced each other in the playoffs, the Los Angeles lost two straight NLCS matchups in 2008-09, but needless to say, there have been wholesale changes to each organization in the decade since. Let's check out the Dodgers lineup that will hope to reverse the recent historical trends of the postseason meetings between these two teams.
This Dodgers team hinges on positional versatility, as evidenced by the fact that the above lineup makes no sense if you look only at the Position 1 column. In order to make this particular group of players work, no fewer than three players would have to rely on their secondary position: Cody Bellinger would need to move from first base to center field to make room for breakout Home Run Derby participant Max Muncy. All-Star starting left fielder Matt Kemp would have to shift across the outfield to accommodate Joc Pederson in left - at least that was the case until regular right fielder Yasiel Puig returned from the disabled list this weekend, who has 835 fantasy points on the year, with 11.5 points per game. And utility player Enrique Hernandez is currently the top scoring second base option, relegating Chase Utley and Logan Forsythe (293 / 4.7) to bench/DH roles. Of course this whole calculus changes with the post-All-Star Game acquisition of Manny Machado (1,524 / 15.9), fresh off representing the Orioles as the starting shortstop for the AL All-Star squad, as a replacement for the injured Corey Seager (272 / 10.5).
The order of the starting pitchers presented above is somewhat skewed, given that they're organized by total points. Ross Stripling has had a tremendous season, despite picking up the loss in the All-Star Game, but Clayton Kershaw would clearly start Game 1 of any playoff series, health permitting. If we go by last year's playoff usage, Kenta Maeda would be relegated to the bullpen in favor of Rich Hill (350 / 29.2), but this year, manager Dave Roberts will hopefully also have to factor in rookie Walker Buehler (597 / 54.3) and currently injured Hyun-Jin Ryu (443 / 73.8) into his postseason plans. This team's bullpen has been something of a work in progress, beyond All-Star closer Kenley Jansen - LA has already acquired five different relievers midseason, including the above-pictured Dylan Floro (who was actually recently optioned to the minors). With just four days to go until the trade deadline, I would be surprised if GM Farhan Zaidi was done tinkering.
Of all the offenses we've looked at so far, Philadelphia's might be the least impacted by injury. Former top prospect J.P. Crawford (213 / 6.3) is currently on the 10-day DL, but he had already been leaprogged in the team's infield depth chart by just-graduated prospect Scott Kingery, who signed a multi-year extension with the club this offseason before appearing in a single Major League game. The offseason signing of Carlos Santana pushed Rhys Hoskins into the outfield full time, which hasn't led to a dropoff in power, as evidenced by his Home Run Derby participation this year. Center fielder Odubel Herrera is in the midst of a breakout season, and even the much maligned Maikel Franco is putting up decent numbers. If this team has an obvious weak link, it's in the outfield, where neither Nick Williams nor (especially) Aaron Altherr are living up to expectations... which is why it was surprising to me that GM Matt Klentak's biggest midseason acquisition so far was infielder Asdrubal Cabrera (1,094 / 11.9) from the division rival Mets.
It was also surprising that a first place team would have just one All-Star representative, but Aaron Nola was no token choice: he was in fact the sixth most productive starting pitcher in all of baseball at the break, according to fantasy points. Jake Arrieta hasn't quite lived up to the hype since signing a late free agent deal this spring, but he has served as a solid mid-rotation piece for first year manager Gabe Kapler. But the most surprising story of this pitching staff is the emergence of Zach Eflin (801 / 66.8), who just came off the DL to round out a very impressive starting five. The second-most surprising Phillies pitching story is the DE-mergence of Hector Neris (398 / 12.1) who not only lost his closer role to first year rookie Seranthony Dominguez, but was also optioned to the minor leagues prior to the break. Dominguez (Philly's #30 ranked prospect heading into the season) and fellow rookie reliever Victor Arano (#28) have held their own this year, joining veterans Tommy Hunter and Pat Neshek, but this strikes me as another team that could stand to pursue some bullpen help at the deadline.
Next time, I'll take a look at the AL Division Series, non-Wild Card edition.
This Dodgers team hinges on positional versatility, as evidenced by the fact that the above lineup makes no sense if you look only at the Position 1 column. In order to make this particular group of players work, no fewer than three players would have to rely on their secondary position: Cody Bellinger would need to move from first base to center field to make room for breakout Home Run Derby participant Max Muncy. All-Star starting left fielder Matt Kemp would have to shift across the outfield to accommodate Joc Pederson in left - at least that was the case until regular right fielder Yasiel Puig returned from the disabled list this weekend, who has 835 fantasy points on the year, with 11.5 points per game. And utility player Enrique Hernandez is currently the top scoring second base option, relegating Chase Utley and Logan Forsythe (293 / 4.7) to bench/DH roles. Of course this whole calculus changes with the post-All-Star Game acquisition of Manny Machado (1,524 / 15.9), fresh off representing the Orioles as the starting shortstop for the AL All-Star squad, as a replacement for the injured Corey Seager (272 / 10.5).
The order of the starting pitchers presented above is somewhat skewed, given that they're organized by total points. Ross Stripling has had a tremendous season, despite picking up the loss in the All-Star Game, but Clayton Kershaw would clearly start Game 1 of any playoff series, health permitting. If we go by last year's playoff usage, Kenta Maeda would be relegated to the bullpen in favor of Rich Hill (350 / 29.2), but this year, manager Dave Roberts will hopefully also have to factor in rookie Walker Buehler (597 / 54.3) and currently injured Hyun-Jin Ryu (443 / 73.8) into his postseason plans. This team's bullpen has been something of a work in progress, beyond All-Star closer Kenley Jansen - LA has already acquired five different relievers midseason, including the above-pictured Dylan Floro (who was actually recently optioned to the minors). With just four days to go until the trade deadline, I would be surprised if GM Farhan Zaidi was done tinkering.
Of all the offenses we've looked at so far, Philadelphia's might be the least impacted by injury. Former top prospect J.P. Crawford (213 / 6.3) is currently on the 10-day DL, but he had already been leaprogged in the team's infield depth chart by just-graduated prospect Scott Kingery, who signed a multi-year extension with the club this offseason before appearing in a single Major League game. The offseason signing of Carlos Santana pushed Rhys Hoskins into the outfield full time, which hasn't led to a dropoff in power, as evidenced by his Home Run Derby participation this year. Center fielder Odubel Herrera is in the midst of a breakout season, and even the much maligned Maikel Franco is putting up decent numbers. If this team has an obvious weak link, it's in the outfield, where neither Nick Williams nor (especially) Aaron Altherr are living up to expectations... which is why it was surprising to me that GM Matt Klentak's biggest midseason acquisition so far was infielder Asdrubal Cabrera (1,094 / 11.9) from the division rival Mets.
It was also surprising that a first place team would have just one All-Star representative, but Aaron Nola was no token choice: he was in fact the sixth most productive starting pitcher in all of baseball at the break, according to fantasy points. Jake Arrieta hasn't quite lived up to the hype since signing a late free agent deal this spring, but he has served as a solid mid-rotation piece for first year manager Gabe Kapler. But the most surprising story of this pitching staff is the emergence of Zach Eflin (801 / 66.8), who just came off the DL to round out a very impressive starting five. The second-most surprising Phillies pitching story is the DE-mergence of Hector Neris (398 / 12.1) who not only lost his closer role to first year rookie Seranthony Dominguez, but was also optioned to the minor leagues prior to the break. Dominguez (Philly's #30 ranked prospect heading into the season) and fellow rookie reliever Victor Arano (#28) have held their own this year, joining veterans Tommy Hunter and Pat Neshek, but this strikes me as another team that could stand to pursue some bullpen help at the deadline.
Next time, I'll take a look at the AL Division Series, non-Wild Card edition.
Saturday, July 28, 2018
If the Season Ended Today 2018 AL Wild Card
Previous Post: NL Wild Card
The American League Wild Card situation was somewhat more settled than the National League at the All-Star Break, with the Yankees and the Mariners trailing two of the league's most powerful superteams (the Red Sox and the Astros, respectively). If we were using today's date as the cutoff (as opposed to the All-Star Break), things would have tightened up a little, given the otherworldly play of the A's recently, but this would still be the matchup if the season ended TODAY today.
The Yankees had four players selected to the 2018 AL All-Star Team, but only two appeared in the game: starting outfielder Aaron Judge and ace pitcher Luis Severino. Closer Aroldis Chapman and star rookie infielder Gleyber Torres (816 points on the year, 13.0 points per game) were also elected via the player ballot, but were deemed unavailable for the proceedings. Torres was replaced on the All-Star roster by Oakland second baseman Jed Lowrie (1,196 / 12.7), whose team is currently just 1.5 games behind Seattle for the right to face New York in this game. In real-life, Torres has since been activated, but while he was on the shelf, offseason acquisition Neil Walker covered second base. Another injured starter who has been activated since the All-Star Break is catcher Gary Sanchez (728 / 11.6), but he was actually since placed BACK on the DL just days later, so it's going to be more Andrew Romine for the Bronx Bombers. Speaking of bombers, perhaps the biggest blockbuster acquisition of the offseason, Giancarlo Stanton, hasn't exactly lived up to the expectations since arriving in New York, but he's still a formidable force in the middle of the lineup.
While I'm sure every Yankee would prefer that their team surge forward and win the AL East rather than having to fight their way through a one game playoff, I'll bet Luis Severino would relish a second chance at a Wild Card Game, after making it through just 1/3 of an inning in last year's contest against the Twins. If New York should so happen to make it into the divisional round again, their best bet to start Game 1 would be Masahiro Tanaka, who has shown flashes of brilliance this year, or CC Sabathia, an 18-year veteran whose knee has given him so much trouble that he has at times contemplated retirement. As of the All-Star Break, manager Aaron Boone's best option for a number four starter would be the extremely disappointing Sonny Gray, but the trade market has been active since play resumed, and GM Brian Cashman just swung a deal with the Blue Jays two days ago to net lefty starter J.A. Happ (1,038 / 54.6) to shore up the middle/back of the rotation. Similarly, in the bullpen, if we extend the cutoff from the All-Star Break to Present Day, the Yankees would have access to a SECOND shutdown lefty reliever behind Chapman: former Orioles closer Zach Britton (249 / 16.6), whose numbers are less impressive than normal due to his recovery from offseason knee surgery.
Like New York, Seattle also had four All-Stars on the 2018 AL roster, but unlike New York, all four of them played in the game. Closer Edwin Diaz earned ("earned") the win, after also blowing the save in the ninth inning. (Incidentally, the game was closed up by the newest member of the Yankees, J.A. Happ, who was representing Toronto in the game.) Final Vote winner Jean Segura hit a big pinch hit home run that likely would have earned him All-Star Game MVP, if not for his teammate's late inning collapse. And Player Ballot recipients Mitch Haniger and Nelson Cruz combined for three plate appearances with one time reaching base between them (a walk by Cruz). The two players with cyan shading in their Last Name column shows that the game's busiest GM Jerry Dipoto has been at it again, striking an early deal with the Rays to net an outfielder and a late inning reliever.
The addition of Denard Span is especially important since the PED suspension of Robinson Cano (488 / 12.5) forced offseason acquisition Dee Gordon to move from center field back to his old position of second base, thinning out the outfield depth - although that still hasn't tempted manager Scott Servais to deploy Cruz in the outfield for even a single inning, causing his fantasy stock to suffer. On the injury front, the Mariners have seen significant losses, both on the mound and behind the plate. As impressive as Marco Gonzales has been this year, all things being equal (i.e. healthy), the clear choice to start a one-game playoff would be James Paxton (1,295 / 64.8). And of course possible Hall of Famer Felix Hernandez (656 / 34.5) would be a much better option to round out a playoff rotation (or even serve as a tag-team long reliever, given Wade LeBlanc's strong season) than whatever replacement level minor leaguers happen to be hanging around. And lastly (at least alphabetically), catcher Mike Zunino (435 / 7.3) has been activated in real life, but he remains sadly unavailable for this particular thought experiment.
National League Division Series coming up next!
The American League Wild Card situation was somewhat more settled than the National League at the All-Star Break, with the Yankees and the Mariners trailing two of the league's most powerful superteams (the Red Sox and the Astros, respectively). If we were using today's date as the cutoff (as opposed to the All-Star Break), things would have tightened up a little, given the otherworldly play of the A's recently, but this would still be the matchup if the season ended TODAY today.
The Yankees had four players selected to the 2018 AL All-Star Team, but only two appeared in the game: starting outfielder Aaron Judge and ace pitcher Luis Severino. Closer Aroldis Chapman and star rookie infielder Gleyber Torres (816 points on the year, 13.0 points per game) were also elected via the player ballot, but were deemed unavailable for the proceedings. Torres was replaced on the All-Star roster by Oakland second baseman Jed Lowrie (1,196 / 12.7), whose team is currently just 1.5 games behind Seattle for the right to face New York in this game. In real-life, Torres has since been activated, but while he was on the shelf, offseason acquisition Neil Walker covered second base. Another injured starter who has been activated since the All-Star Break is catcher Gary Sanchez (728 / 11.6), but he was actually since placed BACK on the DL just days later, so it's going to be more Andrew Romine for the Bronx Bombers. Speaking of bombers, perhaps the biggest blockbuster acquisition of the offseason, Giancarlo Stanton, hasn't exactly lived up to the expectations since arriving in New York, but he's still a formidable force in the middle of the lineup.
While I'm sure every Yankee would prefer that their team surge forward and win the AL East rather than having to fight their way through a one game playoff, I'll bet Luis Severino would relish a second chance at a Wild Card Game, after making it through just 1/3 of an inning in last year's contest against the Twins. If New York should so happen to make it into the divisional round again, their best bet to start Game 1 would be Masahiro Tanaka, who has shown flashes of brilliance this year, or CC Sabathia, an 18-year veteran whose knee has given him so much trouble that he has at times contemplated retirement. As of the All-Star Break, manager Aaron Boone's best option for a number four starter would be the extremely disappointing Sonny Gray, but the trade market has been active since play resumed, and GM Brian Cashman just swung a deal with the Blue Jays two days ago to net lefty starter J.A. Happ (1,038 / 54.6) to shore up the middle/back of the rotation. Similarly, in the bullpen, if we extend the cutoff from the All-Star Break to Present Day, the Yankees would have access to a SECOND shutdown lefty reliever behind Chapman: former Orioles closer Zach Britton (249 / 16.6), whose numbers are less impressive than normal due to his recovery from offseason knee surgery.
Like New York, Seattle also had four All-Stars on the 2018 AL roster, but unlike New York, all four of them played in the game. Closer Edwin Diaz earned ("earned") the win, after also blowing the save in the ninth inning. (Incidentally, the game was closed up by the newest member of the Yankees, J.A. Happ, who was representing Toronto in the game.) Final Vote winner Jean Segura hit a big pinch hit home run that likely would have earned him All-Star Game MVP, if not for his teammate's late inning collapse. And Player Ballot recipients Mitch Haniger and Nelson Cruz combined for three plate appearances with one time reaching base between them (a walk by Cruz). The two players with cyan shading in their Last Name column shows that the game's busiest GM Jerry Dipoto has been at it again, striking an early deal with the Rays to net an outfielder and a late inning reliever.
The addition of Denard Span is especially important since the PED suspension of Robinson Cano (488 / 12.5) forced offseason acquisition Dee Gordon to move from center field back to his old position of second base, thinning out the outfield depth - although that still hasn't tempted manager Scott Servais to deploy Cruz in the outfield for even a single inning, causing his fantasy stock to suffer. On the injury front, the Mariners have seen significant losses, both on the mound and behind the plate. As impressive as Marco Gonzales has been this year, all things being equal (i.e. healthy), the clear choice to start a one-game playoff would be James Paxton (1,295 / 64.8). And of course possible Hall of Famer Felix Hernandez (656 / 34.5) would be a much better option to round out a playoff rotation (or even serve as a tag-team long reliever, given Wade LeBlanc's strong season) than whatever replacement level minor leaguers happen to be hanging around. And lastly (at least alphabetically), catcher Mike Zunino (435 / 7.3) has been activated in real life, but he remains sadly unavailable for this particular thought experiment.
National League Division Series coming up next!
Thursday, July 26, 2018
If the Season Ended Today 2018 NL Wild Card
As someone who is used to having the MLB All-Star Game fall on or around my birthday, I couldn't help but notice that this year's festivities occurred later than usual. I'm aware that the All-Star Break has always happened several games after the season's mathematical midpoint, but this extra week makes it harder to refer to pre-break baseball as the "first half," even symbolically. However, this later midsummer classic provides a broader statistical baseline for a feature that I've returned to sporadically over the years: If the Season Ended Today! I'm considering "today" to be "the All-Star Break," because that's when I took a snapshot of rosters, stats, and defensive positioning and updated my patented baseball database, a task that has taken me the better part of the last 10 days.
I'm starting with the NL Wild Card game because it involved some of the closest playoff race at the break. The Brewers, who challenged for a wild card spot last year, had secured a one game lead, but behind them were four teams contending for three spots that were separated by less than a full game in the standings. In the NL East, the division of two of the season's most surprising contenders, the Phillies led the Braves by just a half game, while out west, the Diamondbacks trailed the Dodgers by the same amount. But given the precise winning percentages as of the 2018 All-Star Break, the NL Wild Card Game would be Milwaukee vs. Atlanta. Let's start with the Braves because a) they come first alphabetically, b) they would be the away team in this scenario, and c) however else I want to justify starting with the Braves.
I'm starting with the NL Wild Card game because it involved some of the closest playoff race at the break. The Brewers, who challenged for a wild card spot last year, had secured a one game lead, but behind them were four teams contending for three spots that were separated by less than a full game in the standings. In the NL East, the division of two of the season's most surprising contenders, the Phillies led the Braves by just a half game, while out west, the Diamondbacks trailed the Dodgers by the same amount. But given the precise winning percentages as of the 2018 All-Star Break, the NL Wild Card Game would be Milwaukee vs. Atlanta. Let's start with the Braves because a) they come first alphabetically, b) they would be the away team in this scenario, and c) however else I want to justify starting with the Braves.
Since this experiment is all about the All-Star Break, it's worth noting that the Atlanta roster has four All-Stars: fan-elected starters Freddie Freeman and Nick Markakis (making his first All-Star appearance) join fun-loving second baseman Ozzie Albies and staff ace Mike Foltynewicz, who made it via the player ballot. The green shading in superprospect Ronald Acuna's Position 1 column denotes his rookie status, the green in Pos 2 indicates that he was just added to my database this previous offseason (as a non-roster invitee to Spring Training), and the italic type shows that this is his first year in the majors. The only notable offseason acquisition on the Braves offense (yellow shading in the Name columns) is Charlie Culberson, the guy who would serve as the DH if the National League would get its act together; as it stands, he has manned left field, while Acuna was a) having his service time repressed, or b) injured.
If Atlanta managed to get past this hypothetical play-in game, they would be well positioned in terms of starting pitchers for a Division Series. Julio Teheran is a former ace himself, Sean Newcomb is living up to his top-prospect billing, and Anibal Sanchez is pitching near his peak career levels at age 34. Teams don't usually utilize a fifth starter in the playoffs, but that honor would go to now-injured Brandon McCarthy (505 points on the year, 33.7 PPG, or points-per-game). Speaking of injuries, closer Arodys Vizcaino (827 / 25.1) has been dealing with shoulder issues all season long, leaving a group of surprisingly effective, yet not at all recognizable rookies to hold down in the relief corps. A.J. Minter was seen by many as a successor to Vizcaino (hence his moderate preseason ranking), Shane Carle is a reclamation project from the Rockies (by way of the Pirates), Dan Winkler is ... (checks notes) arbitration eligible two more times, and Jesse Biddle (407 / 13.6) had some top prospect fanfare back in 2012-14 with the Phillies, but is just this year making his MLB debut. This strikes me as a team that could stand to add a shutdown arm to the back of their bullpen down the stretch.
If you thought Atlanta's four All-Stars were impressive, how about FIVE for the Brewers!? Player ballot honorees Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain happen to be two of the most significant offseason acquisitions league wide (one via trade, the other signed as a free agent). Breakout first baseman Jesus Aguilar won the NL's Final Vote (TM) competition. And then we have quite possibly the most controversial bullpen duo in the game: former hate-Tweet spewer Josh Hader (player ballot) and multiple substance abuse suspension server Jeremy Jeffress (chosen as a replacement for injured Nationals closer Sean Doolittle, who has racked up 1,267 points and 36.2 PPG on the year). It's been rumored that Milwaukee has been on the lookout for pitching help, so it's possible that the pitcher who might start a hypothetical Wild Card game might not yet be on the roster. But as things stand now, they're looking at the somewhat unimpressive Jhoulys Chacin, or Chase Anderson, or perhaps a combination of the two.
Injuries have really hit the Brewers hard this year, causing them to do a significant amount of midseason tinkering (represented by the light blue shading in the Name columns). Were they not each on the 10-day DL, Ryan Braun (702 / 9.9) and Eric Thames (670 / 13.4) would have helped shore up the outfield/first base situation. Jonathan Villar (642 / 7.4) wasn't playing great before he got hurt, prompting GM David Stearns to pick up Brad Miller from the Rays. And the catching situation has been in such disarray - with Manny Pina (430 / 7.3) on the DL and Stephen Vogt suffering a career-threatening shoulder injury - that they have to rely on journeyman Erik Kratz. And that's not even counting projected starting outfielder Domingo Santana (343 / 5.5), who played so poorly to start the year that he was optioned to the minors, and then bypassed by Keon Broxton when the team needed outfield reinforcements. That's the same fate suffered by former shortstop-of-the-future Orlando Arcia (228 / 3.5), whose poor play (combined with that of the since-released Eric Sogard, 84 / 1.5) led to the acquisition of utility infielder Tyler Saladino from the White Sox.
The Brew Crew's rotation has had its share of issues as well, with Junior Guerra (868 / 48.2) and Zack Davies (163 / 20.4) also on the disabled list at the time of the All-Star Break. It's worth noting that Guerra and the three above-mentioned position players have since been activated from their DL stints, but remember, it's not technically if the season ended ON TODAY'S DATE, but rather as of the All-Star Break. Of course, if we did extend the cutoff to today, starter Brent Suter would replace Guerra on the DL (he's out for the year with an elbow injury), and the team would also have access to former White Sox closer Joakim Soria (730 / 19.7), who was acquired just moments ago.
Stay tuned for more hypothetical mid(ish)-season playoff series projections!
If Atlanta managed to get past this hypothetical play-in game, they would be well positioned in terms of starting pitchers for a Division Series. Julio Teheran is a former ace himself, Sean Newcomb is living up to his top-prospect billing, and Anibal Sanchez is pitching near his peak career levels at age 34. Teams don't usually utilize a fifth starter in the playoffs, but that honor would go to now-injured Brandon McCarthy (505 points on the year, 33.7 PPG, or points-per-game). Speaking of injuries, closer Arodys Vizcaino (827 / 25.1) has been dealing with shoulder issues all season long, leaving a group of surprisingly effective, yet not at all recognizable rookies to hold down in the relief corps. A.J. Minter was seen by many as a successor to Vizcaino (hence his moderate preseason ranking), Shane Carle is a reclamation project from the Rockies (by way of the Pirates), Dan Winkler is ... (checks notes) arbitration eligible two more times, and Jesse Biddle (407 / 13.6) had some top prospect fanfare back in 2012-14 with the Phillies, but is just this year making his MLB debut. This strikes me as a team that could stand to add a shutdown arm to the back of their bullpen down the stretch.
If you thought Atlanta's four All-Stars were impressive, how about FIVE for the Brewers!? Player ballot honorees Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain happen to be two of the most significant offseason acquisitions league wide (one via trade, the other signed as a free agent). Breakout first baseman Jesus Aguilar won the NL's Final Vote (TM) competition. And then we have quite possibly the most controversial bullpen duo in the game: former hate-Tweet spewer Josh Hader (player ballot) and multiple substance abuse suspension server Jeremy Jeffress (chosen as a replacement for injured Nationals closer Sean Doolittle, who has racked up 1,267 points and 36.2 PPG on the year). It's been rumored that Milwaukee has been on the lookout for pitching help, so it's possible that the pitcher who might start a hypothetical Wild Card game might not yet be on the roster. But as things stand now, they're looking at the somewhat unimpressive Jhoulys Chacin, or Chase Anderson, or perhaps a combination of the two.
Injuries have really hit the Brewers hard this year, causing them to do a significant amount of midseason tinkering (represented by the light blue shading in the Name columns). Were they not each on the 10-day DL, Ryan Braun (702 / 9.9) and Eric Thames (670 / 13.4) would have helped shore up the outfield/first base situation. Jonathan Villar (642 / 7.4) wasn't playing great before he got hurt, prompting GM David Stearns to pick up Brad Miller from the Rays. And the catching situation has been in such disarray - with Manny Pina (430 / 7.3) on the DL and Stephen Vogt suffering a career-threatening shoulder injury - that they have to rely on journeyman Erik Kratz. And that's not even counting projected starting outfielder Domingo Santana (343 / 5.5), who played so poorly to start the year that he was optioned to the minors, and then bypassed by Keon Broxton when the team needed outfield reinforcements. That's the same fate suffered by former shortstop-of-the-future Orlando Arcia (228 / 3.5), whose poor play (combined with that of the since-released Eric Sogard, 84 / 1.5) led to the acquisition of utility infielder Tyler Saladino from the White Sox.
The Brew Crew's rotation has had its share of issues as well, with Junior Guerra (868 / 48.2) and Zack Davies (163 / 20.4) also on the disabled list at the time of the All-Star Break. It's worth noting that Guerra and the three above-mentioned position players have since been activated from their DL stints, but remember, it's not technically if the season ended ON TODAY'S DATE, but rather as of the All-Star Break. Of course, if we did extend the cutoff to today, starter Brent Suter would replace Guerra on the DL (he's out for the year with an elbow injury), and the team would also have access to former White Sox closer Joakim Soria (730 / 19.7), who was acquired just moments ago.
Stay tuned for more hypothetical mid(ish)-season playoff series projections!
Thursday, June 22, 2017
Tape Delay Blogging Thursday - COL vs ARI
In a bit of a throwback to one of my previous features on this blog, if the season ended today, the 2017 NL Wild Card game would be between the teams that are facing off today on MLB.tv's free game, the Rockies and Diamondbacks. Of course Colorado is just a half a game behind Los Angeles for the NL West lead, so these rankings could be very fluid over the more than half a season left in 2017, but given that it's the rubber match between these two today, let's take a little measurement of how these teams are doing. And the fact that it's just about a week before All-Star voting concludes should allow us to take stock of what this year's midsummer classic might look like:
Top 1st
Charlie Blackmon hits a leadoff homer (1 RBI)
Speaking of All-Stars, I would vote for Charlie Blackmon as the top National League outfielder. This is not just because he and I share an astrological sign (Cancer), but because he's objectively outscored his nearest competition of Bryce Harper and Marcell Ozuna. I would also put Blackmon on my shortlist of Best Facial Hair in Baseball '17, no matter how much my mother in law would disapprove of his personal stylings.
Top 2nd
Jeff Mathis grounds out to short, Rey Fuentes scores (1 RBI)
The game then gets tied by two players who are not technically starters for Arizona, but keep in mind that the notion of "starting catcher" has been somewhat foreign to the Diamondbacks this year.
Top 3rd
Paul Goldschmidt singles, scoring Jeremy Hazelbaker
Chris Owings homers to left field, Jake Lamb scores (2 RBI)
Back to the All-Star voting, I've voted for both Diamondbacks corner infielders, although since I did a statistical sounding, Nolan Arenado has overtaken Jake Lamb at third base in terms of fantasy points. Meanwhile, Paul Goldschmidt has hit like he has a chip on his shoulder ever since he sat on the bench for Team USA through most of the WBC in favor of Eric Hosmer.
Top 4th
Nick Ahmed singles to drive in Jeff Mathis (1 RBI)
Paul Goldschmidt homers to right, scoring Nick Ahmed and Jeremy Hazelbaker (3 RBI)
Seriously, Eric Hosmer? He of the 841 points and 11.8 points per game fantasy line on the season? And what's more, he just pulled ahead of A's first bagger Yonder Alonso (903 / 14.3) in All-Star voting? (Let's not talk about how Justin Smoak (1,019 / 14.6) and Logan Morrison (1,012 / 14.3) might technically be more deserving candidates, but you have to follow the ballots.) Whatever happens, it's too bad that home field advantage in this year's World Series will be so influenced by ballot-stuffing.
Top 8th
Zack Godley singles, scoring Chris Herrmann (1 RBI)
If this really were the NL Wild Card game, you can believe Zack Greinke would get the ball. He and lefty Robbie Ray have performed pretty similarly, but barring a huge change of fortunes, money usually does the talking in these situations. However, given how he's pitched AND hit tonight, the DBacks might want to consider giving Zack Godley the ball. If the mostly unheralded pitcher can live up to his lofty name, he will surely be a boon to the Developed Chicago Cubs roster... but that's an entirely different feature.
#VoteAlonso
Top 1st
Charlie Blackmon hits a leadoff homer (1 RBI)
Speaking of All-Stars, I would vote for Charlie Blackmon as the top National League outfielder. This is not just because he and I share an astrological sign (Cancer), but because he's objectively outscored his nearest competition of Bryce Harper and Marcell Ozuna. I would also put Blackmon on my shortlist of Best Facial Hair in Baseball '17, no matter how much my mother in law would disapprove of his personal stylings.
Top 2nd
Jeff Mathis grounds out to short, Rey Fuentes scores (1 RBI)
The game then gets tied by two players who are not technically starters for Arizona, but keep in mind that the notion of "starting catcher" has been somewhat foreign to the Diamondbacks this year.
Top 3rd
Paul Goldschmidt singles, scoring Jeremy Hazelbaker
Chris Owings homers to left field, Jake Lamb scores (2 RBI)
Back to the All-Star voting, I've voted for both Diamondbacks corner infielders, although since I did a statistical sounding, Nolan Arenado has overtaken Jake Lamb at third base in terms of fantasy points. Meanwhile, Paul Goldschmidt has hit like he has a chip on his shoulder ever since he sat on the bench for Team USA through most of the WBC in favor of Eric Hosmer.
Top 4th
Nick Ahmed singles to drive in Jeff Mathis (1 RBI)
Paul Goldschmidt homers to right, scoring Nick Ahmed and Jeremy Hazelbaker (3 RBI)
Seriously, Eric Hosmer? He of the 841 points and 11.8 points per game fantasy line on the season? And what's more, he just pulled ahead of A's first bagger Yonder Alonso (903 / 14.3) in All-Star voting? (Let's not talk about how Justin Smoak (1,019 / 14.6) and Logan Morrison (1,012 / 14.3) might technically be more deserving candidates, but you have to follow the ballots.) Whatever happens, it's too bad that home field advantage in this year's World Series will be so influenced by ballot-stuffing.
Top 8th
Zack Godley singles, scoring Chris Herrmann (1 RBI)
If this really were the NL Wild Card game, you can believe Zack Greinke would get the ball. He and lefty Robbie Ray have performed pretty similarly, but barring a huge change of fortunes, money usually does the talking in these situations. However, given how he's pitched AND hit tonight, the DBacks might want to consider giving Zack Godley the ball. If the mostly unheralded pitcher can live up to his lofty name, he will surely be a boon to the Developed Chicago Cubs roster... but that's an entirely different feature.
#VoteAlonso
Thursday, November 3, 2016
Thoughts about the 2016 World Series
Upon completion of the 2016 World Series, when Joe Maddon's Cubs orchestrated an improbable comeback against World Series legend Terry Francona's Indians, I felt a bit like C-3PO in this scene from The Empire Strikes Back:
The joke here, of course, is that up until this moment, Threepio had done nothing but spew criticism at R2-D2 as he tried to unlock the doors and aid in the Rebels' escape - much like how I reacted to seemingly every one of Joe Maddon's pitching changes from Game 3 onward. G3: Justin Grimm in the 5th with the bases loaded? G4: Pulling John Lackey after just 84 pitches? G6: Bringing in Aroldis Chapman in the 7th inning for the second time in two days? (For the record, the G5 decision was defensible, and perhaps the only way the Cubs hold on to a 3-2 lead - but then to use him the next day when up 7-3, and then to leave him in after he sprained his ankle covering first, and then AGAIN after the Cubs tacked on another two runs!?) G7: Bringing in Jon Lester, the guy who will never throw to a base, with a runner on in the 5th? And then trying to use Chapman for multiple innings for the third game in a row!? You have a bullpen full of specialized relievers! Why not use some of them!?
But somehow, the Cubs prevailed, cashing in on a best-in-baseball 103-win season, and finally getting the 108-year-old monkey (or goat?) off their backs. By the way, when I was explaining the legend of the Billy Goat Curse to my wife last night, I immediately thought of Black Phillip from last year's epic frontier horror film The Witch. Goats are capable of some nasty things: it was true in the 17th century, it was true in 1908, and it's true in 2016! The only thing capable of removing their influence was the actions of two of baseball's most famous curse breakers: Theo Epstein, the baseball operations executive responsible for building both the 2004 Red Sox and the 2016 Cubs, and Terry Francona, the manager of the aforementioned Red Sox team back in '04 (and in 2013 when they won again), but also of the opponent of this year's Cubs team. So win or lose, Tito will always be remembered fondly by followers of baseball superstitions.
One could argue that Francona's pitching choices did as much to help the Cubs as Maddon's choices did to nearly sabotage them. I know his starting rotation has dealt with some devastating injuries towards the end of the season, but asking ace Corey Kluber to pitch on short rest for the third time in the postseason must have been too much for him to handle. Don't get me wrong, I still think Kluber was the best option for Game 7, especially given how dominant he had been throughout the rest of the playoffs. I was among those who thought that Chicago was surely done when I saw that Cleveland's three-man rotation would send Kluber to the hill in the potential deciding game after they fell behind 3-1. But it was the overuse of relief ace Andrew Miller that might have been the final nail in the coffin for Francona's club. The more a batter sees of a pitcher, the more familiar he gets with the hurler's stuff and strategy, while the batter's game plan remains the same all throughout: see the ball, hit the ball. Miller was decidedly brilliant for most of the series, but after his fourth appearance of ~2 innings each, the Cubs were able to get a bead on him, and he gave up a couple of crucial runs in Game 7. I know hindsight is 20/20 and I've heard that Miller's usage could very well revolutionize how relief pitchers are evaluated and used. But over-reliance on one arm is never the answer: just ask how Aroldis Chapman felt after giving up that game-tying home run to Rajai Davis.
I was vocally in favor of the Cubs winning this World Series - not because of the racially insensitive nature of Cleveland's team name (although I do think it was a bit of a dirty trick for Commissioner Rob Manfred to call out the Indians on this point WHILE THEY'RE PLAYING IN THE WORLD SERIES), but rather because I was ready for this Cubs World Series drought narrative to end. A friend of mine took the opposite stance: if the Cubs don't have their "lovable losers" identity, what do they have going for them? But the problem is that ever since Theo Epstein's rebuilding effort started to bear fruit, the Cubs aren't "losers" anymore: they've won 200 games over the past two seasons. And winners aren't lovable unless they win it all. And now that they have won, they can start adopting a new franchise identity, albeit one that casual Cubs fans won't necessarily like that much. To paraphrase Harvey Dent from The Dark Knight: You either die a lovable loser, or you live long enough to see yourself become a hated dynasty.
I have friends who are Indians fans, and I felt bad about actively rooting for their sadness just for the sake of a silly baseball superstition. But think of what kind of narrative we would have had if Cleveland held on to win the championship. Sure, it would have been an inspiring story about overcoming injuries and using relief pitchers creatively and platooning outfielders as though a lefty hitter has never gotten a hit off a lefty pitcher. But at bottom, the Indians would have become just another spoiler in the Cubs' much longer and more storied history of futility. And I wouldn't wish the ire of the north side of Chicago on any baseball fan...
The joke here, of course, is that up until this moment, Threepio had done nothing but spew criticism at R2-D2 as he tried to unlock the doors and aid in the Rebels' escape - much like how I reacted to seemingly every one of Joe Maddon's pitching changes from Game 3 onward. G3: Justin Grimm in the 5th with the bases loaded? G4: Pulling John Lackey after just 84 pitches? G6: Bringing in Aroldis Chapman in the 7th inning for the second time in two days? (For the record, the G5 decision was defensible, and perhaps the only way the Cubs hold on to a 3-2 lead - but then to use him the next day when up 7-3, and then to leave him in after he sprained his ankle covering first, and then AGAIN after the Cubs tacked on another two runs!?) G7: Bringing in Jon Lester, the guy who will never throw to a base, with a runner on in the 5th? And then trying to use Chapman for multiple innings for the third game in a row!? You have a bullpen full of specialized relievers! Why not use some of them!?
But somehow, the Cubs prevailed, cashing in on a best-in-baseball 103-win season, and finally getting the 108-year-old monkey (or goat?) off their backs. By the way, when I was explaining the legend of the Billy Goat Curse to my wife last night, I immediately thought of Black Phillip from last year's epic frontier horror film The Witch. Goats are capable of some nasty things: it was true in the 17th century, it was true in 1908, and it's true in 2016! The only thing capable of removing their influence was the actions of two of baseball's most famous curse breakers: Theo Epstein, the baseball operations executive responsible for building both the 2004 Red Sox and the 2016 Cubs, and Terry Francona, the manager of the aforementioned Red Sox team back in '04 (and in 2013 when they won again), but also of the opponent of this year's Cubs team. So win or lose, Tito will always be remembered fondly by followers of baseball superstitions.
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Bill Murray wouldst like to live deliciously... |
One could argue that Francona's pitching choices did as much to help the Cubs as Maddon's choices did to nearly sabotage them. I know his starting rotation has dealt with some devastating injuries towards the end of the season, but asking ace Corey Kluber to pitch on short rest for the third time in the postseason must have been too much for him to handle. Don't get me wrong, I still think Kluber was the best option for Game 7, especially given how dominant he had been throughout the rest of the playoffs. I was among those who thought that Chicago was surely done when I saw that Cleveland's three-man rotation would send Kluber to the hill in the potential deciding game after they fell behind 3-1. But it was the overuse of relief ace Andrew Miller that might have been the final nail in the coffin for Francona's club. The more a batter sees of a pitcher, the more familiar he gets with the hurler's stuff and strategy, while the batter's game plan remains the same all throughout: see the ball, hit the ball. Miller was decidedly brilliant for most of the series, but after his fourth appearance of ~2 innings each, the Cubs were able to get a bead on him, and he gave up a couple of crucial runs in Game 7. I know hindsight is 20/20 and I've heard that Miller's usage could very well revolutionize how relief pitchers are evaluated and used. But over-reliance on one arm is never the answer: just ask how Aroldis Chapman felt after giving up that game-tying home run to Rajai Davis.
I was vocally in favor of the Cubs winning this World Series - not because of the racially insensitive nature of Cleveland's team name (although I do think it was a bit of a dirty trick for Commissioner Rob Manfred to call out the Indians on this point WHILE THEY'RE PLAYING IN THE WORLD SERIES), but rather because I was ready for this Cubs World Series drought narrative to end. A friend of mine took the opposite stance: if the Cubs don't have their "lovable losers" identity, what do they have going for them? But the problem is that ever since Theo Epstein's rebuilding effort started to bear fruit, the Cubs aren't "losers" anymore: they've won 200 games over the past two seasons. And winners aren't lovable unless they win it all. And now that they have won, they can start adopting a new franchise identity, albeit one that casual Cubs fans won't necessarily like that much. To paraphrase Harvey Dent from The Dark Knight: You either die a lovable loser, or you live long enough to see yourself become a hated dynasty.
I have friends who are Indians fans, and I felt bad about actively rooting for their sadness just for the sake of a silly baseball superstition. But think of what kind of narrative we would have had if Cleveland held on to win the championship. Sure, it would have been an inspiring story about overcoming injuries and using relief pitchers creatively and platooning outfielders as though a lefty hitter has never gotten a hit off a lefty pitcher. But at bottom, the Indians would have become just another spoiler in the Cubs' much longer and more storied history of futility. And I wouldn't wish the ire of the north side of Chicago on any baseball fan...
Wednesday, August 12, 2015
If the Season Ended Today: All-Star Break 2015 - League Leaders
So almost a month after this would be relevant, here's finally the league leaders, the two teams that would get a bye if the season ended at the All-Star Break. These two teams would still have that privilege, but since we're passed the trade deadline, they both look significantly different. But here's the image I made anyway:
Labels:
If the Season Ended Today,
MLB 2015,
Playoffs,
Preview
Monday, July 27, 2015
If the Season Ended Today: All-Star Break 2015 - Division Series
I pose to you a two-part hypothetical situation. 1) What if today was the first day of the All-Star Break. 2) What if the season ended today. If both of those statements are true, this is what the first ALDS matchup would look like. The second matchup would be dependent on the winner of one of the similarly hypothetical Wild Card rounds.
Labels:
If the Season Ended Today,
MLB 2015,
Playoffs,
Preview
Thursday, July 23, 2015
If the Season Ended Today: All-Star Break 2015 - Wild Card Round
When the All-Star Break comes around, all of my baseball attention (and most of my life attention) is spent on updating the massive Excel spreadsheet that tracks the roster status and fantasy progess of every player in the major leagues. The existence of this database gives the lie to a piece of advice from The Dark Knight Joker: If you're good at something, never do it for free. Problem is, I don't have any time to find someone to pay for the creation of such a database - because I've spent all my time on creating the database itself.
But that's fine, because creating the database is a complete labor of love, what some would probably describe as flow activity, whatever that means. It's also something I do pretty compulsively, so I try to find ways to spread it out, timewise, to prevent overflow of influx of information. One such way is to whittle the database down into a manageable size, e.g. a playoff bracket constructed as if the season ended today - although rather than today, I'll use the All-Star Break.
First is the Wild Card round in the NL, cuz it's the closest contest - not between the two participants, but rather between the contestants for the second wild card spot. As of the All-Star Break, the Chicago Cubs just beat out the New York Mets by mere percentage points for the right to face the Pittsburgh Pirates. Below is an infographic featuring a selection from my database showing projected lineups of each team, along with all the copious information contained for each player.
But that's fine, because creating the database is a complete labor of love, what some would probably describe as flow activity, whatever that means. It's also something I do pretty compulsively, so I try to find ways to spread it out, timewise, to prevent overflow of influx of information. One such way is to whittle the database down into a manageable size, e.g. a playoff bracket constructed as if the season ended today - although rather than today, I'll use the All-Star Break.
First is the Wild Card round in the NL, cuz it's the closest contest - not between the two participants, but rather between the contestants for the second wild card spot. As of the All-Star Break, the Chicago Cubs just beat out the New York Mets by mere percentage points for the right to face the Pittsburgh Pirates. Below is an infographic featuring a selection from my database showing projected lineups of each team, along with all the copious information contained for each player.
Labels:
If the Season Ended Today,
MLB 2015,
Playoffs,
Preview
Wednesday, October 1, 2014
Why I'm Glad the A's Lost
Who or what does one root for when one roots for a baseball team? My first instinct is to say the players, because they're the ones who actually make up the team. They're the ones that you cheer on the field and it's their level of play that determines whether the team wins or loses. But it's also more than that, because most fans of a specific team will support any player who wears that team's uniform. In fact I know there are some fans who root for the more abstract concept of organizational identity regardless of who's on the field. But behind every organization is another group of people: there's an owner who makes the financial decisions, a whole suite of front office executives who make the personnel decisions, and a coaching staff to make the on-the-field strategic decisions.
So now that we've identified three distinct aspects that make up a baseball team - the roster, the franchise, and the management - the question is, can someone be considered a true fan of a "team" if one or more of these aspects are completely at odds with each other in that person's mind?
This is the question that I - and hopefully many Oakland Athletics fans - are asking themselves this morning, after the A's suffered a heartbreaking(ly mismanaged) loss to the Kansas City Royals in last night's AL Wild Card Game. If you've followed the A's for the past couple years, you'd see an extremely likable group of guys on the field every day. The home run tunnel they do in the dugout? Pure class! That All-Star Game video that Josh Donaldson, Sean Doolittle, and Derek Norris did? Hilarious! Josh Reddick exposing himself in a celebratory picture when they finally clinched a playoff spot? You can't teach this stuff in the minor leagues and it makes them a heckuva lot of fun to watch.
I have all the respect and affection in the world for the A's players and they deserve a heckuva lot better than the managerial situation they had to endure last night. I find Monday-morning-quarterbacking to be a fruitless and frustrating venture for the most part, but when there were this many outrage-inducing decisions in a win-or-go-home playoff game, a little second guessing is in order. I would like to talk about two such decisions, the first of which is the obvious elephant (or perhaps donkey?) in the room: why didn't Adam Dunn start this game? I know he has hit poorly against James Shields (.586 OPS against him with 5 walks and 16 strikeouts), but Brandon Moss's OPS vs. Shields was even worse (.429) and he ended up hitting two home runs. It was a head scratcher to say the least, especially when all anyone could talk about before the game was how 14-year veteran Adam Dunn had finally made it to the playoffs for the first time in his last season before retirement.
It seemed as though this move would be overlooked, however, when the A's took a commanding four run lead into the 8th inning. That lead became three runs when Jon Lester started to struggle and was pulled after 7 1/3 innings, leaving two runners on base. And who should come in to pitch? Not lights out closer Sean Doolittle - who is perfectly capable of a five-out save, as he proved by pitching two full innings later in this game - but setup man Luke Gregerson who blew 8 (eight [EIGHT]) saves this season. As you hear all the time when you listen to investors, "past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results," but this guy pitched in 11 save opportunities in 2014 and fucked up in nearly three quarters of them. What's more, he allowed 43% of his inherited runners to score this year (14% higher than league average). And what did he do? Allowed two more runs, cutting the lead to one. Big surprise. Welcome to free agency, dude.
Sean Doolittle gave up the tying run in the ninth (which of course would have still resulted in a save had Gregerson somehow not been so Gregerson-esque), which at least provided the promise of seeing Adam Dunn get a pinch hitting appearance. But when light-hitting second baseman Eric Sogard came up to bat in the bottom of the 10th with two outs and nobody on base, who should step up to the on-deck circle but ... light-hitting second baseman Nick Punto. I figuratively lost my shit when I saw this move take place. Literally, that's the figurative reaction I had. Don't get me wrong, I love me some Puntissimo, but he's a clubhouse presence/defensive replacement kind of guy, not the one you bring up to pinch hit with the season on the line.
Punto strikes out looking, but that's not necessarily terrible (even though Sogard could have done that himself) since the A's weren't threatening and you want to save your best weapon for when you have the best chance to score. The A's had just that chance in the 12th inning with Josh Reddick on third and a righty coming up against a righty pitcher... and Alberto Callaspo comes in to pinch hit. It's hard to second guess this move since Callaspo got a base hit to give the A's the lead - and because Bob Melvin claimed he thought Dunn would just have been walked in that situation, setting up a double play for Derek Norris (who hit into 12 of them this year). But after Norris struck out, first base was not open for Nick Punto... who was allowed to bat a second time. Against a right handed pitcher (Jason Frasor) who has given up a .500 lifetime batting average to... Adam Dunn (albeit in only two at bats - one RBI single and one strikeout).
To not start Dunn against a pitcher who has owned him in the past, I can almost understand. But to not even give him a pinch hitting appearance, against a right handed pitcher, in the middle of a game-altering rally, in the only chance he would ever have to play in a postseason game, is indefensible and unconscionable. It's a complete and utter lack of respect for a player who was acquired FOR THE SOLE PURPOSE of playing in this one game. Not only that, it's a slap in the face to all of Dunn's fans, anyone who tweeted that he had played in 2,001 games without a playoff appearance, and anyone who enjoys watching games in which a team's best players actually get a chance to play. It bespeaks a smug, dismissive attitude toward any decision-making process, either analytical or emotional. So unless it comes out that Adam Dunn had a legitimate reason for being unavailable last night - he was injured, he was sick, he made a Brad Pitt joke within earshot of Billy Beane - there has got to be some serious explanation and accountability for this ignominious end to his career.
But as much flack as Bob Melvin took last night - and trust me, he deserved all of it and more - it's simply not possible that he was the sole person responsible for this fiasco. It's well documented that Billy Beane is an aggressively hands-on general manager, and I don't believe for a minute that Melvin was able to make such a controversial starting lineup decision before running it upstairs. If he didn't, you can bet the next press release coming out of Oakland will be announcing the second managerial firing in three days. If he did and it turns out that Beane was behind it all, maybe we should see a press release announcing the second general managerial firing in nine days. Even before last night, I would argue that the A's need some new leadership. Billy Beane has stated before that his "shit doesn't work in the playoffs" and that was true even when he had sound strategies, such as pursuing on-base percentage. The pitching-and-defense kick resulted in a long fallow period, and two years into the platoon-split obsession, we've seen nothing but heartbreaking losses so far. Of course the one constant obsession Beane has had throughout his tenure was trading away all his best players for the sake of making headlines and cementing his legacy as the most electrifying general manager in all of sports. ("Watch closely as I turn Matt Holliday into... Michael Taylor!") So why am I happy the A's lost? Beyond the usual sour grapes reasons - an offense with a one-legged Josh Donaldson, a one-handed Geovany Soto, and minus Coco Crisp altogether would not get far in the upcoming tournament - I think it's important that people take notice of this farce that's going on in Oakland's front office right now (most aspects of which would be overlooked had the A's won last night), which will hopefully inspire some changes for next season.
Keep in mind, these are all the angry ramblings of a heartbroken and disgruntled fan, and after a few months of obsessing over the rest of the playoffs, the winter meetings, the hot stove season, and spring training, I'll be ready to cheer on the green and gold again. I just need some time to grieve.
So now that we've identified three distinct aspects that make up a baseball team - the roster, the franchise, and the management - the question is, can someone be considered a true fan of a "team" if one or more of these aspects are completely at odds with each other in that person's mind?
This is the question that I - and hopefully many Oakland Athletics fans - are asking themselves this morning, after the A's suffered a heartbreaking(ly mismanaged) loss to the Kansas City Royals in last night's AL Wild Card Game. If you've followed the A's for the past couple years, you'd see an extremely likable group of guys on the field every day. The home run tunnel they do in the dugout? Pure class! That All-Star Game video that Josh Donaldson, Sean Doolittle, and Derek Norris did? Hilarious! Josh Reddick exposing himself in a celebratory picture when they finally clinched a playoff spot? You can't teach this stuff in the minor leagues and it makes them a heckuva lot of fun to watch.
I have all the respect and affection in the world for the A's players and they deserve a heckuva lot better than the managerial situation they had to endure last night. I find Monday-morning-quarterbacking to be a fruitless and frustrating venture for the most part, but when there were this many outrage-inducing decisions in a win-or-go-home playoff game, a little second guessing is in order. I would like to talk about two such decisions, the first of which is the obvious elephant (or perhaps donkey?) in the room: why didn't Adam Dunn start this game? I know he has hit poorly against James Shields (.586 OPS against him with 5 walks and 16 strikeouts), but Brandon Moss's OPS vs. Shields was even worse (.429) and he ended up hitting two home runs. It was a head scratcher to say the least, especially when all anyone could talk about before the game was how 14-year veteran Adam Dunn had finally made it to the playoffs for the first time in his last season before retirement.
It seemed as though this move would be overlooked, however, when the A's took a commanding four run lead into the 8th inning. That lead became three runs when Jon Lester started to struggle and was pulled after 7 1/3 innings, leaving two runners on base. And who should come in to pitch? Not lights out closer Sean Doolittle - who is perfectly capable of a five-out save, as he proved by pitching two full innings later in this game - but setup man Luke Gregerson who blew 8 (eight [EIGHT]) saves this season. As you hear all the time when you listen to investors, "past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results," but this guy pitched in 11 save opportunities in 2014 and fucked up in nearly three quarters of them. What's more, he allowed 43% of his inherited runners to score this year (14% higher than league average). And what did he do? Allowed two more runs, cutting the lead to one. Big surprise. Welcome to free agency, dude.
Sean Doolittle gave up the tying run in the ninth (which of course would have still resulted in a save had Gregerson somehow not been so Gregerson-esque), which at least provided the promise of seeing Adam Dunn get a pinch hitting appearance. But when light-hitting second baseman Eric Sogard came up to bat in the bottom of the 10th with two outs and nobody on base, who should step up to the on-deck circle but ... light-hitting second baseman Nick Punto. I figuratively lost my shit when I saw this move take place. Literally, that's the figurative reaction I had. Don't get me wrong, I love me some Puntissimo, but he's a clubhouse presence/defensive replacement kind of guy, not the one you bring up to pinch hit with the season on the line.
Punto strikes out looking, but that's not necessarily terrible (even though Sogard could have done that himself) since the A's weren't threatening and you want to save your best weapon for when you have the best chance to score. The A's had just that chance in the 12th inning with Josh Reddick on third and a righty coming up against a righty pitcher... and Alberto Callaspo comes in to pinch hit. It's hard to second guess this move since Callaspo got a base hit to give the A's the lead - and because Bob Melvin claimed he thought Dunn would just have been walked in that situation, setting up a double play for Derek Norris (who hit into 12 of them this year). But after Norris struck out, first base was not open for Nick Punto... who was allowed to bat a second time. Against a right handed pitcher (Jason Frasor) who has given up a .500 lifetime batting average to... Adam Dunn (albeit in only two at bats - one RBI single and one strikeout).
To not start Dunn against a pitcher who has owned him in the past, I can almost understand. But to not even give him a pinch hitting appearance, against a right handed pitcher, in the middle of a game-altering rally, in the only chance he would ever have to play in a postseason game, is indefensible and unconscionable. It's a complete and utter lack of respect for a player who was acquired FOR THE SOLE PURPOSE of playing in this one game. Not only that, it's a slap in the face to all of Dunn's fans, anyone who tweeted that he had played in 2,001 games without a playoff appearance, and anyone who enjoys watching games in which a team's best players actually get a chance to play. It bespeaks a smug, dismissive attitude toward any decision-making process, either analytical or emotional. So unless it comes out that Adam Dunn had a legitimate reason for being unavailable last night - he was injured, he was sick, he made a Brad Pitt joke within earshot of Billy Beane - there has got to be some serious explanation and accountability for this ignominious end to his career.
![]() |
"What are we going to do tonight, Breane?" "Same thing we do every night, Melvy: LEAVE OUR BEST PLAYERS ON THE BENCH!" |
Keep in mind, these are all the angry ramblings of a heartbroken and disgruntled fan, and after a few months of obsessing over the rest of the playoffs, the winter meetings, the hot stove season, and spring training, I'll be ready to cheer on the green and gold again. I just need some time to grieve.
Labels:
If the Season Ended Today,
MLB 2014,
Philosophy,
Playoffs
Monday, September 23, 2013
Liveblogging: Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins, 9/23/13
Torii Hunter strikes again with his second double and then is driven in by (who else) Miguel Cabrera, who looks to be playing through the pain. The Tigers just got another one and it doesn't look like the Twins are likely to score too many more runs off Verlander, so I'm going to sign off after this inning. In other news, the A's have taken a 2-1 lead in Anaheim, looking to at least keep pace with the Tigers in the home field advantage battle. Middle of the 7th Inning (and wake me up if this isn't the final score): DET - 3, MIN - 0
Twin traitor Torii Hunter finally drove in this game's first run in the 5th with a big ground rule double, complete with bat-flip. But that's all they can get with Miguel Cabrera striking out and Prince Fielder grounding out to the pitcher. I'm scared that with Cabrera's injury situation, if he can come back and contribute a couple of key hits down the stretch, the comparison's to Kirk Gibson's 1988 performance will be forthcoming, which are particularly painful to recall, due to my allegiances. If you'll recall, Gibson once played for the Tigers, making the comparison a little more relevant.
1-0 lead as we head into the 5th notwithstanding, I can't help but feeling as if the Tigers might be on a one way trip to cokesville, population Eric Chavez (or should I say "Choke-vez") based on the way they're getting mowed down my Mets castoff Mike Pelfrey. Sure it looks like we're seeing vintage Verlander, but remember it is the Twins after all. Speaking of the Twins, young catcher Josmil Pinto made the last out of the inning, but as his .362 average over his first 16 games shows, the kid can hit. A lineup featuring him behind the plate, Oswaldo Arcia in left field (not in the lineup tonight due to a batting practice injury) and a healthy Joe Mauer at first could look pretty good in a few years. End of the 5th Inning: DET - 1, MIN - 0
One cool thing about watching a Twins broadcast is getting to hear deserving Hall of Fame player Bert Blyleven as part of the team calling balls and strikes. In the baseball universe depicted in my baseball card collection, I included Blyleven on the team made up of cards from my Donruss 1990 set (his first year pitching for the California Angels) but left him off my Topps 1992 team (pictured), due to the fact that he did not pitch at all the previous year. It's a nice card though, and seeing as it's going for up to two American dollars on eBay, I guess I'll give him a position of honor in a sleeve.
A player of whom I don't have a card is pitching tonight for the Tigers: Justin Verlander, who has gone unbeaten against the Twins since 2010. He also victimized the Oakland Athletics in last year's division series, facing them in Game 1 at his home of Comerica Park (despite the fact that the A's had home field advantage) and then again to end the series at the O.co Colosseum. In case you hadn't heard, the A's won their division yesterday, for the second year in a row, and if the season ended today, they would face these Tigers in the American League Division Series. However, the season does not end today, and the Tigers still need two wins to lock up the division, while the A's are now just playing for the same home field advantage that so screwed them last year.
It is all but certain that if the Tigers manage to lock up their division with enough time left to set their ideal playoff rotation, Justin Verlander will NOT start Game 1 of the ALDS. As of now, he is not first, not second, but THIRD on his team in pitching points with 1,680 (52.8 Points Per Game) compared to last year's full season total of a staggering 2,722 (82.5 PPG). Luckily for the Tigers, Max Scherzer is on track to notch stats about on par with the 2012 edition of Verlander, currently sitting at 2,665 (86.0 PPG). Surprising SP2 Anibal Sanchez (1,977 with 70.6 PPG) is turning into one of the smartest-looking free agent re-signings this year. In the fourth starter spot, Doug Fister is no slouch, scoring 1,583 total points with 51.1 PPG so far.
The reason I'm obsessing so much about Detroit's rotation is because I want to compare it position-for-position to the A's, who they will most likely face to start October. I wouldn't dare write something like this before the A's clinched their division, but I have no worries about jinxing things for Detroit. I'd be totally happy if Cleveland steamrolled from behind and earned a spot, with Tampa Bay and Texas facing off in the Wild Card game, if only because then the A's wouldn't have to go up against this incredibly talented top four. But I think Oakland has some pretty impressive pitching weapons to trot out there as well.
First is the ageless wonder Bartolo Colon, who missed time due to a PED suspension last year and due to injuries this year, but still leads A's pitchers in points and PPG. Compared to his prospective opponents, he sits somewhere between Sanchez and Verlander: 1,882 with 64.9 PPG. He clearly doesn't have the raw stuff of Scherzer, but he has been in the league while Scherzer was still going through puberty, so I wouldn't count the old work horse out. Starting our hypothetical Game 2 would be the underrated A's homegrown prospect A.J. Griffin, whose bushy moustache and flowing locks recall some of Blyleven's teammates in the 1970s. Then Jarrod Parker, who started the season poorly but has had only one loss in his last 21 starts. For the fourth game, the A's now have some choices. They could go with lefty Tommy Milone, a playoff starter last year who nevertheless had to spend some time in the minors in '13 to refine his mechanics, Rookie strikeout specialist Dan Straily, the narrow leader in points between the two (1,177 to 1,149), or 2013 debutant Sonny Gray, who has the highest PPG among any of them since his call-up from the minor leagues (56.5 to 45.3 and 42.6). Whoever is not chosen to start could also serve out of the bullpen, along with oft-injured lefty Brett Anderson who has seemed to embrace a bullpen role since returning from a long absence.
Going into the Tigers offense, it looks like their biggest weapon is injured, injured bad. To watch him try to hobble down to first base after grounding out in the first inning would have made me feel bad if he wasn't such an integral part of ending the A's season last year. Speaking of bad injuries, Prince Fielder currently leads the league in consecutive appearances with nearly a season's worth of consecutive games more than runner-up Adam Jones. Someone who was just starting to creep their way onto the "Iron Man" list played the same position as the current all-time leader - Orioles 3B Manny Machado - almost certainly had his streak snapped with a gruesome knee injury. All us fans of the sport wish him the best in his recovery.
Cabrera (2,782 with 19.5 PPG) has just gotten on base via a "seeing-eye single" in the third inning, and it'll be interesting to see how he runs the bases with the significant goin/oblique issues he's going through. Oakland's point leader also plays third base: Josh Donaldson has eclipsed the 2,000 point plateau for the first time in his first full season in the majors (2,089 with 13.7 PPG, far behind Cabrera, but eclipsing Prince Fielder's 2,019 and 12.9, who just grounded out to end the inning). But two of their other main offensive players have had their troubles with injuries: Yoenis Cespedes, 2013's Home Run Derby champion, is nursing a sore shoulder while Coco Crisp has missed plenty of time with various problems on the road to a career high in home runs himself.
"Sweet Home Alabama" blares over the PA system as former Oakland Athletic Josh Willingham comes up to bat with two outs in the bottom of the third inning, both Justin Verlander strikeouts. And it's not long until the Fox Sports Theme plays after Willingham's second strikeout of the day makes it 8 total of Verlander. Now I know it's just the Twins, but if JV's returning to his top form, making the playoffs shouldn't be too hard for this Tigers team after all. End of the 3rd Inning, no score.
===
Twin traitor Torii Hunter finally drove in this game's first run in the 5th with a big ground rule double, complete with bat-flip. But that's all they can get with Miguel Cabrera striking out and Prince Fielder grounding out to the pitcher. I'm scared that with Cabrera's injury situation, if he can come back and contribute a couple of key hits down the stretch, the comparison's to Kirk Gibson's 1988 performance will be forthcoming, which are particularly painful to recall, due to my allegiances. If you'll recall, Gibson once played for the Tigers, making the comparison a little more relevant.
1-0 lead as we head into the 5th notwithstanding, I can't help but feeling as if the Tigers might be on a one way trip to cokesville, population Eric Chavez (or should I say "Choke-vez") based on the way they're getting mowed down my Mets castoff Mike Pelfrey. Sure it looks like we're seeing vintage Verlander, but remember it is the Twins after all. Speaking of the Twins, young catcher Josmil Pinto made the last out of the inning, but as his .362 average over his first 16 games shows, the kid can hit. A lineup featuring him behind the plate, Oswaldo Arcia in left field (not in the lineup tonight due to a batting practice injury) and a healthy Joe Mauer at first could look pretty good in a few years. End of the 5th Inning: DET - 1, MIN - 0
===

A player of whom I don't have a card is pitching tonight for the Tigers: Justin Verlander, who has gone unbeaten against the Twins since 2010. He also victimized the Oakland Athletics in last year's division series, facing them in Game 1 at his home of Comerica Park (despite the fact that the A's had home field advantage) and then again to end the series at the O.co Colosseum. In case you hadn't heard, the A's won their division yesterday, for the second year in a row, and if the season ended today, they would face these Tigers in the American League Division Series. However, the season does not end today, and the Tigers still need two wins to lock up the division, while the A's are now just playing for the same home field advantage that so screwed them last year.
It is all but certain that if the Tigers manage to lock up their division with enough time left to set their ideal playoff rotation, Justin Verlander will NOT start Game 1 of the ALDS. As of now, he is not first, not second, but THIRD on his team in pitching points with 1,680 (52.8 Points Per Game) compared to last year's full season total of a staggering 2,722 (82.5 PPG). Luckily for the Tigers, Max Scherzer is on track to notch stats about on par with the 2012 edition of Verlander, currently sitting at 2,665 (86.0 PPG). Surprising SP2 Anibal Sanchez (1,977 with 70.6 PPG) is turning into one of the smartest-looking free agent re-signings this year. In the fourth starter spot, Doug Fister is no slouch, scoring 1,583 total points with 51.1 PPG so far.
The reason I'm obsessing so much about Detroit's rotation is because I want to compare it position-for-position to the A's, who they will most likely face to start October. I wouldn't dare write something like this before the A's clinched their division, but I have no worries about jinxing things for Detroit. I'd be totally happy if Cleveland steamrolled from behind and earned a spot, with Tampa Bay and Texas facing off in the Wild Card game, if only because then the A's wouldn't have to go up against this incredibly talented top four. But I think Oakland has some pretty impressive pitching weapons to trot out there as well.
First is the ageless wonder Bartolo Colon, who missed time due to a PED suspension last year and due to injuries this year, but still leads A's pitchers in points and PPG. Compared to his prospective opponents, he sits somewhere between Sanchez and Verlander: 1,882 with 64.9 PPG. He clearly doesn't have the raw stuff of Scherzer, but he has been in the league while Scherzer was still going through puberty, so I wouldn't count the old work horse out. Starting our hypothetical Game 2 would be the underrated A's homegrown prospect A.J. Griffin, whose bushy moustache and flowing locks recall some of Blyleven's teammates in the 1970s. Then Jarrod Parker, who started the season poorly but has had only one loss in his last 21 starts. For the fourth game, the A's now have some choices. They could go with lefty Tommy Milone, a playoff starter last year who nevertheless had to spend some time in the minors in '13 to refine his mechanics, Rookie strikeout specialist Dan Straily, the narrow leader in points between the two (1,177 to 1,149), or 2013 debutant Sonny Gray, who has the highest PPG among any of them since his call-up from the minor leagues (56.5 to 45.3 and 42.6). Whoever is not chosen to start could also serve out of the bullpen, along with oft-injured lefty Brett Anderson who has seemed to embrace a bullpen role since returning from a long absence.
Going into the Tigers offense, it looks like their biggest weapon is injured, injured bad. To watch him try to hobble down to first base after grounding out in the first inning would have made me feel bad if he wasn't such an integral part of ending the A's season last year. Speaking of bad injuries, Prince Fielder currently leads the league in consecutive appearances with nearly a season's worth of consecutive games more than runner-up Adam Jones. Someone who was just starting to creep their way onto the "Iron Man" list played the same position as the current all-time leader - Orioles 3B Manny Machado - almost certainly had his streak snapped with a gruesome knee injury. All us fans of the sport wish him the best in his recovery.
Cabrera (2,782 with 19.5 PPG) has just gotten on base via a "seeing-eye single" in the third inning, and it'll be interesting to see how he runs the bases with the significant goin/oblique issues he's going through. Oakland's point leader also plays third base: Josh Donaldson has eclipsed the 2,000 point plateau for the first time in his first full season in the majors (2,089 with 13.7 PPG, far behind Cabrera, but eclipsing Prince Fielder's 2,019 and 12.9, who just grounded out to end the inning). But two of their other main offensive players have had their troubles with injuries: Yoenis Cespedes, 2013's Home Run Derby champion, is nursing a sore shoulder while Coco Crisp has missed plenty of time with various problems on the road to a career high in home runs himself.
"Sweet Home Alabama" blares over the PA system as former Oakland Athletic Josh Willingham comes up to bat with two outs in the bottom of the third inning, both Justin Verlander strikeouts. And it's not long until the Fox Sports Theme plays after Willingham's second strikeout of the day makes it 8 total of Verlander. Now I know it's just the Twins, but if JV's returning to his top form, making the playoffs shouldn't be too hard for this Tigers team after all. End of the 3rd Inning, no score.
Wednesday, September 2, 2009
AL Central: The Race that Time Forgot
At this point, I have talked about every playoff race save two: the AL Central and the NL Wild Card. In the former race, things have been going pretty much as expected. Everybody knew the division would be up for grabs, and we're now just watching it play out until the end of the season. The Tigers have pulled away as the clear favorites, holding onto first place since May 10. They've made a couple of "win-now" moves to strengthen their ballclub (acquiring pitcher Jarrod Washburn from the Mariners and first baseman Aubrey Huff from the Orioles) and just hope to ride it out, letting the Twins and White Sox take care of each other.
Less than a week ago, the White Sox gave up second place to the Twins, a place in the standings they had previously held since the trade deadline. This was right about when they learned that their big acquisition from said deadline - Jake Peavy (2007's Cy Young Award winner), who was already injured at the time of the trade - had no real timetable for his return. Since then, they've apparently opted for influencing the races in the NL West rather than their own, trading aging slugger Jim Thome to the Dodgers and starter Jose Contreras to the Rockies. At the moment, they're banking on Peavy to come back healthy next year and to remain healthy all the way through 2012, when his current contract expires. And if he ends up being worth the guaranteed $52 million they'll have to spend on him, that's just the icing on the cake.
The Twins have been surging of late, despite a rotation ravaged by injuries and ineffectiveness. Of the projected starting five, only Scott Baker and Nick Blackburn remain; Kevin Slowey and Francisco Liriano are injured, and Glen Perkins has been out of the rotation since the beginning of August. The remaining three spots currently belong to newly acquired veteran Carl Pavano, and some combination of rookies. We'll see if Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer can carry the offense and give the Tigers a run for their money down the stretch.
The Tigers' 4.5 game lead over the Twins isn't a lock, but given the statuses of the two teams, it looks pretty safe. It would be great if they battled it out towards the end, echoing last year's race between the Twins and the White Sox, which required a one game playoff to decide the division leader. Now, that was an exciting race and all (and a 1-0 White Sox victory in the one game playoff made it even more exciting), but let's not forget what happened to those same White Sox in the playoffs: they won a single game on their way to a beating by the AL East winning Tampa Bay Rays, the team that would eventually represent the AL in the World Series.
Given the other teams out there, I can't help but think that a similar fate is in store for whoever ends up winning the Central division. I know it's not fair to discount a team that's played well for the whole season, and I know that pretty much anything can happen in the first round of the playoffs, which is, after all, just a best-of-five series. But whatever powers of foresight I possess are telling me that the Tigers and the Twins (and now especially the White Sox) are unlikely contenders at best.
And it's not just gut feeling, either; their records bear this theory out as well. The Tigers are in first place in their division with 71 wins. The other first place teams have 85 wins (Yankees) and 78 wins (Angels). The two other second place teams have 77 wins (Red Sox) and 75 wins (Rangers). Both of these teams - the two teams competing for the AL Wild Card (see the previous post) - have outperformed the Tigers pretty significantly. Now look at the two other third place teams: the Rays (72 wins) and the Mariners (70 wins). So if the Tigers were in any other division, they wouldn't be anywhere close to the playoff hunt.*
*I know this is a ridiculous "if" here, because if the Tigers were in any other division, they would be playing the majority of their games against teams from that division, and the schedule would be different and all that counter-factual stuff that you have to take into account. Just for kicks, the Tigers have played .591 ball against their division rivals (29-20), .611 vs. the AL West (22-14), and .344 vs. the AL East (10-19). So they've actually played better in their division than out of it (.429 against the East and the West combined). But all this is nothing but fleeting conjecture.
A lot of fans like to see the less likely team blow by the favorites and take the playoffs by storm. I on the other hand stand content to watch the powerhouses steamroll the lesser teams and battle it out amongst themselves. Because, for me, a good Clash of the Titans story always beats out a good Underdog story. And vice versa.
Less than a week ago, the White Sox gave up second place to the Twins, a place in the standings they had previously held since the trade deadline. This was right about when they learned that their big acquisition from said deadline - Jake Peavy (2007's Cy Young Award winner), who was already injured at the time of the trade - had no real timetable for his return. Since then, they've apparently opted for influencing the races in the NL West rather than their own, trading aging slugger Jim Thome to the Dodgers and starter Jose Contreras to the Rockies. At the moment, they're banking on Peavy to come back healthy next year and to remain healthy all the way through 2012, when his current contract expires. And if he ends up being worth the guaranteed $52 million they'll have to spend on him, that's just the icing on the cake.
The Twins have been surging of late, despite a rotation ravaged by injuries and ineffectiveness. Of the projected starting five, only Scott Baker and Nick Blackburn remain; Kevin Slowey and Francisco Liriano are injured, and Glen Perkins has been out of the rotation since the beginning of August. The remaining three spots currently belong to newly acquired veteran Carl Pavano, and some combination of rookies. We'll see if Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer can carry the offense and give the Tigers a run for their money down the stretch.
The Tigers' 4.5 game lead over the Twins isn't a lock, but given the statuses of the two teams, it looks pretty safe. It would be great if they battled it out towards the end, echoing last year's race between the Twins and the White Sox, which required a one game playoff to decide the division leader. Now, that was an exciting race and all (and a 1-0 White Sox victory in the one game playoff made it even more exciting), but let's not forget what happened to those same White Sox in the playoffs: they won a single game on their way to a beating by the AL East winning Tampa Bay Rays, the team that would eventually represent the AL in the World Series.
Given the other teams out there, I can't help but think that a similar fate is in store for whoever ends up winning the Central division. I know it's not fair to discount a team that's played well for the whole season, and I know that pretty much anything can happen in the first round of the playoffs, which is, after all, just a best-of-five series. But whatever powers of foresight I possess are telling me that the Tigers and the Twins (and now especially the White Sox) are unlikely contenders at best.
And it's not just gut feeling, either; their records bear this theory out as well. The Tigers are in first place in their division with 71 wins. The other first place teams have 85 wins (Yankees) and 78 wins (Angels). The two other second place teams have 77 wins (Red Sox) and 75 wins (Rangers). Both of these teams - the two teams competing for the AL Wild Card (see the previous post) - have outperformed the Tigers pretty significantly. Now look at the two other third place teams: the Rays (72 wins) and the Mariners (70 wins). So if the Tigers were in any other division, they wouldn't be anywhere close to the playoff hunt.*
*I know this is a ridiculous "if" here, because if the Tigers were in any other division, they would be playing the majority of their games against teams from that division, and the schedule would be different and all that counter-factual stuff that you have to take into account. Just for kicks, the Tigers have played .591 ball against their division rivals (29-20), .611 vs. the AL West (22-14), and .344 vs. the AL East (10-19). So they've actually played better in their division than out of it (.429 against the East and the West combined). But all this is nothing but fleeting conjecture.
A lot of fans like to see the less likely team blow by the favorites and take the playoffs by storm. I on the other hand stand content to watch the powerhouses steamroll the lesser teams and battle it out amongst themselves. Because, for me, a good Clash of the Titans story always beats out a good Underdog story. And vice versa.
Sunday, August 30, 2009
Red Sox vs. Rangers, a Dialogue
Two --> weeks ago, the Red Sox and Rangers, embroiled in a very close race for the AL Wild Card, met in Arlington for a three game series. Of course, some time has passed since then, but the race is still close: the Sox currently stand 3.5 games ahead of the Rangers. The meeting of two contending teams at such a crucial point in the season gave me an idea: what would happen if the two guys who were in charge of personnel decisions for the two teams could talk to each other in a cordial, informative, and dramatic manner?
What follows is one such conversation between Theo Epstein, general manager of the Red Sox, and Jon Daniels, GM of the Rangers, about the fortunes of their respective teams, as it may have happened when they played against each other. It’s not exactly historically accurate, because since that fabled series (in which the Rangers took 2 of 3) many aspects of both teams have changed, and it’s in my interest to sacrifice historicity in the interest of staying up to date.
INT. Luxury Box, Rangers Ballpark in Arlington – DAY
JON: But he’s up now. He’s been up since July. He must be doing something right.
THEO: SHUT UP! Nobody’s written a book about me yet because I’ve succeeded! My story would be boring! Enter Theo: he saves the day. Millions upon millions of fans cheer. Exit Theo.
THEO: That was ONE TIME! And it was Halloween. And we auctioned that suit off for $11,000 for charitable organizations…
JON: Sounds like a stunt to me, T. A publicity stunt, if you know what I mean!
What follows is one such conversation between Theo Epstein, general manager of the Red Sox, and Jon Daniels, GM of the Rangers, about the fortunes of their respective teams, as it may have happened when they played against each other. It’s not exactly historically accurate, because since that fabled series (in which the Rangers took 2 of 3) many aspects of both teams have changed, and it’s in my interest to sacrifice historicity in the interest of staying up to date.
INT. Luxury Box, Rangers Ballpark in Arlington – DAY
Rangers GM Jon Daniels sits with a score sheet in front of him, keeping score of the Rangers vs. Red Sox game going on below. His open laptop is at his left hand, his blackberry at his right. The crowd cheers. He reacts to the play, writes something down on his score sheet, and moves to type something in his laptop.
There’s a knock at the door. Daniels closes his laptop quickly and suspiciously; turns around to see Theo Epstein standing at the door, holding a highball.
THEO: Hiya, Jonny.
JON: Hiya, Theo-y.
THEO: That’s quite a ballclub you’ve put together down there.
JON: Aw, thanks, T. You know, there were some good trades, and some bad ones.
THEO: Hey, speaking of trades (he leans in all secretively) didja see that one I made the other day for Victor Martinez?
JON: Yeah, T, I noticed. He’s down on the field right now, playing first base.
THEO: Is he? Are you sure he’s not playing catcher? Because he can play there too, you know.
JON: Yeah, yeah, he’s very versatile.
THEO: Oh, don’t I know it.
JON: How’s Varitek taking the new acquisition?
THEO: Who, Jason Varitek? Our starting catcher for the last 12 years? I think he’ll understand. Plus he’s been bothered by neck spasms, so he might actually be happy to know someone’s there to take his place when he needs some rest.
JON: Ooh, neck spasms? Sounds serious.
THEO: Well, he is 37 years old. That’s to be expected. And the best part of this whole situation: if Jason’s feeling alright and if Terry (Francona, manager) wants both his and Victor’s bats in the lineup, Martinez can play first too! That way Kevin Youkilis can shift over to third, and we won’t lose his production!
JON: It’s true, you acquired a very versatile player. And in that situation, what would Lowell think of being benched?
THEO (a politician now, more than a baseball man): Mike Lowell’s still our starting third baseman. But he’s old too (35) and he’s had some hip problems. So no harm, no foul there.
JON: So you just stock up on players so that you’ll be ready when (not if) one of them goes down with an injury? What does that do for the confidence of the players who you know are too fragile to be relied on?
THEO (correcting him): The players I know are too fragile on whom to be relied, Jonny. Never end a phrase with one of those ghastly prepositions. And listen, I don’t put together a team based on my players’ confidence or feelings. I put together a team that’s got the best chance to win ballgames. And Mike understands that, and Jason understands that, and Victor understands that. And they also understand that sometimes they’re not part of the combination that will win the most ballgames. They’re all consummate veterans.
JON: Seems like you kind of had the same strategy for your starting rotation before this season. Eight viable starting pitchers in the organization? I know you like to play it safe, but eight seems a bit excessive, even for you.
THEO: You think so? Let’s take a look at those starters I had at the beginning of the season.
*Josh Beckett: Our ace for four years. Helped us win a World Series with 20 wins in 2007. But he gets blisters trying to throw his own fastball. Hardly 100% reliable.
*Jon Lester: Young left-hander, ace quality. Beat cancer. Threw a no-hitter. Him we don’t have to worry about.
*Daisuke Matsuzaka: Pronounced “Dice-K.” Was a huge fan favorite. But he’s playing a game that’s played very differently here than it was in his native Japan. For instance, we baby our young pitchers. We put them on pitch counts, we limit their innings, we make them start their careers in the bullpen. But Japanese pitchers start pitching early, and they start taking on very large workloads early. He threw 180 professional innings at age 18. Then 167 at 19. Then 240 at 20. Do you know how many pitches Joba Chamberlain threw by age 20? He was still pitching in COLLEGE at age 20. My point is, I think that he’s been overworked and he’s tired and he’s not yet used to the American Style of Baseball, and I don’t trust his arm to hold out, quite frankly. I think we were living on borrowed time with Daisuke.
And I was right, wasn’t I? He last pitched in the majors in JUNE.
JON: Well, hindsight is always 20/20, T.
THEO
*Tim Wakefield: 42 year-old knuckleballer. We’re not the Phillies, are we? We don’t need senior citizens to make our team better! But, wait, he has wins by July? He’s still getting people out? Well, that performance is good enough for me. But wait: he just went on the DL and missed nearly 50 games with back and shoulder problems? Well, good thing we packed a spare…
*Brad Penny: …questionable veteran starter. But this one was nearly ineffectual last year after missing significant time due to injuries. What assurances do I have that he’s completely recovered? I don’t have any. So forgive me for doing my research and being careful.
JON: See, I understand all that, but then how can you justify your next move?
THEO: Who?
*John Smoltz? That was just good timing. He’s another veteran, a future hall of famer, in fact, released by his old team, desperate for one last shot. So I picked him up cheap. AND, he underwent shoulder surgery during the off-season and isn’t scheduled to return until June. So hopefully he’ll be ready by the time one of the other guys breaks down. Didn’t a certain Japanese import go down in June?
JON: But what’s the assurance that Smoltz will remain healthy?
THEO: There isn’t any. That’s the beauty of it! We have so many of them that at least ONE of them has to work out! (Theo begins to pace frantically, like a mad scientist)
JON: But Theo… that’s only six. What of the other two pitchers?
THEO (immediately stops pacing and becomes deadly focused): Ah, yes. We spoke of eight, but have covered, so far, only six. Who was the next one, Jon?
JON: You know who I’m talking about, T.
THEO: But I want to hear you say it, Jonny Boy.
JON: Clay. Buchholz.
THEO
*Clay Buchholz: My organization’s Number 1 Ranked Prospect prior to the 2008 season. He’s 24, he has a great makeup, and “competitive drive” and all that. But guess what he did in the 2008 season: 9 losses and a 6.75 ERA in 16 games. Whatever baseballamerica.com’s prospect ranker thinks of Buchholz, he’s clearly not yet ready for the bigs. He needs more time in the minors, like I’ve said a thousand times before.
JON: But he’s up now. He’s been up since July. He must be doing something right.
THEO: Doing what right? He has a 5.02 ERA in 8 games. He’s up because all my other guys went down. Daisuke has been ineffective all season. We released John Smoltz months ago. Wakefield’s just now back from his injury, which forced us to release Brad Penny.
JON: So, right there, you could have kept Penny and sent Buchholz down. So he must be doing better than Penny.
THEO: Slightly better than Penny, but Penny was just slightly worse than Junichi Tazawa.
JON: Who?
THEO: Why, the eighth man, my dear boy,
*Junichi Tazawa: A really good young pitcher from one of the smaller Japanese Leagues. We got him early in his development so we could show him the American baseball tradition of babying a starter every step of the way. He was the prize of the whole off-season, and yet nobody’s heard of him.
JON: Yeah? And what has he done for you lately?
THEO: Pay no attention to the 6.65 ERA! Trust me, he’ll pan out.
JON: So those were the eight men?
THEO: …Actually… there was another Eighth Man:
*Justin Masterson: who had been spending most of his time in the bullpen. But we traded him in August to get…
TOGETHER: …Victor Martinez.
JON: …and he’s sooooo versatile…
THEO: So, how many viable starters do we have now?
JON: Counting your bad ones?
THEO: Counting our only ones now…
JON: I guess five.
THEO: So it all worked out for me, then, right?
JON: I guess. But Masterson still has a high ceiling. And John Smoltz was picked up by the Cardinals, and he’s pitched two good games for them.
THEO: Ah, everybody plays better for the Cardinals. Just ask Matt Holliday. And Mark McGwire. Hmm, two former A’s.
JON: You’re thinking about Billy Beane again, aren’t you?
THEO: …No.
JON: You’re just jealous that nobody’s written a bestseller about you. And nobody’s asked Brad Pitt to play you in a movie, even though your team’s doing much better than his…
THEO: SHUT UP! Nobody’s written a book about me yet because I’ve succeeded! My story would be boring! Enter Theo: he saves the day. Millions upon millions of fans cheer. Exit Theo.
JON: In a gorilla suit…?
THEO: That was ONE TIME! And it was Halloween. And we auctioned that suit off for $11,000 for charitable organizations…
JON: Sounds like a stunt to me, T. A publicity stunt, if you know what I mean!
THEO: Oh, now you’re just jealous that you’re not even in anyone’s shadow! How’s your rotation these days, Jonny?
JON: Better than Billy Beane’s. And also beating his by 17 games in their division.
THEO; MY ROTATION’S BEATING BILLY BEANE’S TOO, JON!
JON: That’s not the point. The point is that my rotation may also be beating yours. We’re 3rd in the league in ERA. You guys are…?
THEO: 7th. But look at our peripherals. We’ve got more strikeouts by a lot, the least Home Runs allowed per nine-innings, and we throw much fewer walks than we do strikeouts. I don’t know if you’re beating mine just yet.
JON: Yes, T, but how much money did you spend on yours? And how much money did I spend on mine?
THEO (his jaw drops. Jon’s going there. Theo’s demoralized): On all of them?
JON: How much did your Big Eight cost this year and how much did mine cost?
THEO: You had eight?
JON: Pretty much. Here they are if you want to check:
*Kevin Millwood: Signed since 2005, expensive but possibly not worth it. Certainly not in the last couple years. But he’s doing really good this year! Maybe it’s because of new team president Nolan Ryan…
*Vicente Padilla: He was way overpaid, but he was a sunk cost. We found cheaper options, released him, and now he’s trying to find true happiness with the Dodgers.
*Scott Feldman: He’s bounced around the organization a bit, but we thought he was ready for the show. And he hasn’t let us down.
*Brandon McCarthy: We traded a really good pitcher (John Danks) to get this guy, and so far he’s disappointed us. Missed most of last year due to injury, and was done this year after just 11 games.
*Matt Harrison: Nobody really thought of him as any better than a decent pitcher. But that’s all we needed him to be if enough of our other options came through. And look: he too got hurt after exactly 11 games.
*Derek Holland: Haven’t heard of this guy? Well, he was our number 2 rated prospect this year by Baseball America. He hasn’t been lights-out, but he’s been serviceable and he’s played a very important role for the team.
*Tommy Hunter: Here’s a 22 year old who wasn’t on anyone’s radar, and boy if he hasn’t been our best pitcher. Ain’t baseball great?
*Dustin Nippert: To be fair, this guy wasn’t even really on our radar to start before this season. But we gave him a shot, and he’s started 8 games for us. And we couldn’t be happier.
THEO: So… shall we tally up?
JON: Let’s. You first, my dear boy.
THEO:
Beckett: $11,166,666 million
Lester: one million even
Daisuke: 8.3repeating million
Wakefield: 4 million
Penny: 5 million
Smoltz: 5.5 million (but the Cardinals are eating some of that)
Buchholz: $413,500
Tazawa: $450,000
Masterson: $415,000 (but the Indians have most of that, and plus it’s a negligible salary)
JON: Yeah, but the four more years of him that they get at that price is not negligible. But no matter, here’s mine:
Millwood: 12.868892 million
Padilla: $12 million (but the Dodgers have some of that, thank Cy Young)
Feldman: $434,680
McCarthy: $615,000
Harrison: $405,000
Holland: $400,000
Hunter: $401,000
Nippert: $411,760
THEO: So, for me, that’s $36,278,499. But you have to deduct from that money paid by the Cardinals and Indians for the remainders of the salaries of the players we released…
JON: Yeah, yeah, I know how it works. Are you quite finished? Read ‘em and weep: $27,536,332. Minus part of that 12 mil paid by the Dodgers. And mine’s got a better ERA!
THEO: Pretty impressive, Jon.
JON: Thank you, Theo!
THEO: And how’s your offense.
JON: Oh, not as good as yours, Theo. We’re behind you in runs, hits, AVG, OPS, and total bases – plus we strike out a good deal more – but we’ve hit more home runs than you.
THEO: That’s something, at least. How’s your bullpen?
JON: Couldn’t be better, thanks for asking! Frank Francisco’s been a very effective closer, C.J. Wilson and Darren O’Day are a great right/left combination to set him up, and Neftali Feliz has been awe-inspiring. He’s our number 1 ranked prospect and he might even be a starter one day. Wouldn’t that be just lovely?
THEO: Yeah, lovely. I can’t wait for my hitters to have to face his 101 mph fastball next season.
JON: Oh, they have faced them this season! He held your team to a .143 AVG in 7 AB this season.
THEO: Sample size alert…
JON: I know, it’s hardly a blip. But you must admit those fastballs are dazzling…
THEO: Alright, alright, they’re dazzling. You know, we have some dazzling fastballs in our bullpen too.
JON: Is that so, Theo? Why don’t you tell me all about them.
THEO: Jonathan Papelbon, Ramon Ramirez (acquired this off-season), Takashi Saito (also acquired this off-season), Hideki Okajima, young Daniel Bard, and newly acquired Billy Wagner.
JON: Billy Wagner? You mean fresh off of Tommy John Ligament Replacement surgery, Billy Wagner?
THEO: The very same. Have you seen his 96 mph fastball?
JON: Yeah, but he only threw two innings for the Mets before you acquired him. That’s a small sample size alert if I’ve ever seen one! Plus, what reassurances do you have that he’ll stay healthy?
THEO: But that’s the beauty of it! There’s so many of them!!!
JON: Great, back to this again?
THEO: Our bullpen’s fine, Jonny. You just worry about when Andruw Jones, Jarrod Saltalmacchia, Harrison, McCarthy, and Everyday Eddie Guardado get off the DL.
JON: Hey, T! That was harsh. I don’t poke fun at you because of your use of the disabled list. These are human beings here. Who are in pain.
THEO: Unless you’re Dontrelle Willis. Social Anxiety Disorder, my…
JON: Theo!
THEO: Sorry, that came from a bad place. I’m sorry.
JON: Apology accepted.
THEO: So, how’s it feel to be the youngest GM in baseball history? 28 years old, was it, when Jon Hart put you in charge of the Rangers in 2005?
JON: You ought to know; you held that honor once yourself. Back in 2002 when you took control of the Red Sox, also at 28.
THEO: A slightly older 28.
JON: Slightly older, true. But that was seven years ago and you’re now….
THEO: Don’t remind me.
JON: Could it be 35? While I myself am sitting pretty at 31.
THEO: 32 on the 24th. Happy Birthday, by the way.
JON: Thanks, pal!
THEO: No problem! And say hi to your buddies at Cornell, would you?
JON: Will do! And same for your pals at… what was it?
THEO: Yale.
JON: Yes, Yale, of course. How could I forget!
THEO: Well…
JON: Yes?
THEO: Good luck down the stretch!
JON: Hup! You too!
THEO: CheeriO!
Theo backs out the door, tipping his highball as if it were an imaginary top hat, and closing it gruffly behind him. Jon stares straight ahead for a second. Then he lets out a sigh, opens up his laptop, and types enthusiastically. As the crowd goes wild, he glances up casually at the game going on down below.
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