Showing posts with label Divisional All-Stars. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Divisional All-Stars. Show all posts

Tuesday, January 31, 2017

Divisional All-Stars 2016 American League

Last week, I presented Divisional All-Stars lineups for the National League (all three divisions and one wild card team), and now I present the same for the American League! Here's how the four teams shape up in terms of total fantasy points of players on their respective 25-man rosters:

1. AL East: 40,427
2. AL Central: 37,983
3. AL West: 36, 158
4. AL Wild Card: 33,417

Even though a Central team won the AL Pennant this year, I'm going to present these teams in order of overall points, because this AL East team scored the most out of any division, beating out the NL West by a measly 77 points. Let's check out this heavily Boston-influenced roster:


Everywhere you look, there's another Red Sock: Mookie Betts scored the most fantasy points among all batters in 2016, Rick Porcello won the AL Cy Young award, Koji Uehara still has closer-worthy stuff even at age 41, they're solid up the middle with Pedroia, Bogaerts, and Bradley Jr., and David Price's "disappointing" season still landed him just outside the top five scoring starting pitchers in the league. The elephant in the room is retired DH David Ortiz, who trailed only Betts, Porcello, and the previous year's AL MVP Josh Donaldson in fantasy points last year (while finishing just ahead of his fellow Dominican DH Edwin Encarnacion, who is also making his final appearance on this division's roster... for now). If we honor Big Papi's decision to step away from the game (and assume that he wouldn't be willing to return for (at most) 11 games for this special occasion), the DH spot would be filled by Orioles third baseman Manny Machado. While it would definitely be a waste not to put someone with his defensive prowess in the field, his bat definitely plays well enough for a DH, although this change would create a ripple effect for the AL Wild Card team, but more on that later.

A quick look through this roster reveals that there are only two players who comes from a team that's not the Red Sox, Blue Jays, or Orioles: number three starter Masahiro Tanaka (flanked by two Blue Jays stars J.A. Happ and Aaron Sanchez) and bench bat Tim Beckham. Based on playing time, Yankees rookie Gary Sanchez could technically have qualified as a bench piece, but despite his short season, his role was clearly as a starter when he played. Technically there is one player who spent some time with the Atlanta Braves (reliever Jason Grilli), but he qualified with the Toronto, plus he doesn't really figure to eat into the playing time of Baltimore's three-headed-monster of arguably the league's top closer Zach Britton, All-Star Brad Brach, and 2016 rookie Mychal Givens. Speaking of three-headed monsters, neither of Yankees much heralded setup aces Andrew Miller and Dellin Betances qualified as middle relievers last year due to their time spent closing games, and not even fireballing Aroldis Chapman could compete with Britton when judged as a closer.


Despite representing their league in the World Series, the Indians only has one representative in each of the four categories in this Divisional All-Star roster: Shortstop Francisco Lindor in the starting lineup, ace pitcher Corey Kluber in the rotation, underrated workhorse Dan Otero in the bullpen, and beloved veteran Juan Uribe on the bench. If not for the ridiculous depth at second base in this division, Jason Kipnis might have had a spot here, but he couldn't compete with the prodigious power of Brian Dozier or the all around sterling production of Ian Kinsler. As it is, Kipnis will still be involved in these proceedings as part of the AL Wild Card team, joining his teammate Carlos Santana at DH. However, there are a couple of stellar pitchers in Cleveland (Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar come to mind) who could make this list next year if they manage to have full seasons, possibly replacing former Chicago ace Chris Sale, who traded in his White Sox for the Red variety this offseason. I could also see relief aces Cody Allen and Andrew Miller taking a couple of bullpen spots, depending on their usage: if they end up splitting time as closer, it might be difficult to make a case for either of them.

Two long time Detroit stalwarts headline the rotation and the lineup (Justin Verlander and Miguel Cabrera, respectively) and neither look to be leaving anytime soon due to their massive contracts and no-trade protection. Speaking of trades, it was somewhat controversial to plug recently shipped off Adam Eaton into the center field slot, given that he spent most of his time in right field last season for Chicago. However, the alternative was platoon specialist / speedster Rajai Davis, and Eaton is slated to play center next year with the Nationals, after playing nearly 50 games there this past year. On the topic of roster moves, Jose Quintana might have spent his final year as an AL Central Divisional All-Star, based on how much his name has been bandied about the rumor mill this offseason, while Royals ace Danny Duffy will likely be around for the foreseeable future after just inking a new deal this offseason. Speaking of Duffy (and his teammate Salvador Perez, who also appears on this roster), I'd like to offer my deepest condolences to the Royals organization after the untimely death of Yordano Ventura, another rising star who was taken from the baseball community all too soon.


As is the case with any list that includes the current AL MVP, this lineup is all about Mike Trout. Well, actually, Jose Altuve was almost as impressive as the Angels center fielder last year, forming half of perhaps the best double play combo in the majors with Astros shortstop Carlos Correa. And don't forget the tremendous home run power of Nelson Cruz. And then there's future Hall of Famers Albert Pujols and Adrian Beltre. And George Springer is a darn fine ballplayer as well. Come to think of it, this is a very strong lineup. It would look a lot less strong if I hadn't played somewhat fast and loose with positional eligibility: both Cruz and Pujols spent the majority of their 2016's at DH. And given the presence of Robinson Cano, neither of the two aforementioned sluggers would even have made the roster if I didn't make an exception - Cruz would be replaced by Ian Desmond (see the AL Wild Card team, below) and Pujols would give way to his real life teammate C.J. Cron, whose 1,258 points on the year should not put him in the conversation of division's best first basemen. I did however make the opposite decision regarding another majority DH, Evan Gattis and his 1,467 points. Even though Gattis did play 55 of his 128 games at catcher, I figured you would want a more regular option behind the plate since the catcher position is significantly more defensively challenging than first base and the outfield. Plus Stephen Vogt made his second consecutive All-Star appearance this year, and plus GO A'S!!!

Where this team lags behind the other divisions is the starting pitching. Cole Hamels had an ace caliber season in Texas and Rich Hill pitched like a number one when he was healthy enough to take the field. But the issue here is that many projected key players didn't live up to their expectations, for a number of reasons. Injuries prevented Yu Darvish, Sonny Gray, and Garret Richards from reaching their full potential, and both 2015 Cy Young Award winner Dallas Keuchel and perennial ace "King" Felix Hernandez fell completely out of relevance for some reason. Things don't get much rosier at the back end of the bullpen: a proven closer Sam Dyson ain't, but the fact that he went from minor trade deadline acquisition to unheralded setup option to ninth inning force all in the span of one year is a pretty neat story. The bullpen behind Dyson is really solid, led by baserunner strander extraordinaire Ryan Dull, long reliever / swingman Chris Devenski, and hard-throwing lefty Jake Diekman (who just underwent a scary surgical procedure on his colon - here's wishing him a speedy recovery). And the bench has a good mix of speed, defensive versatility, and upside, in the form of Billy Burns, Shawn O'Malley, and Jurickson Profar, respectively.


I've mentioned four of the top five hitters in the AL Wild Card lineup above, and at this juncture I would like to point out that in the event that Manny Machado would have to replace the retired David Ortiz in the AL East lineup, he would be replaced in the this lineup by Mariners third baseman Kyle Seager (2,123 points, with Evan Longoria and his 2,052 points waiting in the wings). This outfield is quite shaky defensively, and that's even with Hanley Ramirez moving to first base full time: Ian Desmond has less than a year's experience in center field, and both Carlos Beltran and Khris Davis are best suited for DH work. But at least they have defensively gifted reserve Jake Marisnick ready to take plenty of late innings in the outfield.

If you thought the AL West rotation was shaky, you might want to turn away before looking at these pitchers. Not one of them even reached 1,700 points on the year, and the most impressive on a points per game basis (Michael Fulmer with 60.6) had an abbreviated rookie season due to innings limitations. Chris Tillman was the top scorer on an underwhelming Orioles staff and Jake Odorizzi led the Rays in pitching fantasy points (even if Chris Archer is the de facto ace of that team), but Marco Estrada has dealt with some injury issues and Ian Kennedy is vastly overpaid. The only saving graces are 2016 Cubs bullpen teammates Aroldis Chapman and Mike Montgomery, the former of which will nail down the ninth inning, while the latter could even be used to shore up a weak rotation. Not a single one of these middle relievers are worth writing home about. Which means that if I do a video game simulation, the MLB: The Show AI will absolutely 100% make sure that this team wins it all.


So that's it for the 2016 Divisional All-Stars! Lots of fun baseball stuff coming up soon with Spring Training just weeks away and the WBC in March, and I've also been playing a lot of Batman video games, so stay tuned to this channel for some fun updates!

Friday, January 27, 2017

Divisional All-Stars 2016 National League

If I talk about Divisional All-Stars in the context of the fairly recently completed 2016 baseball season, is that a pretty self-explanatory concept? Like, for every year that I do this feature, do I really have to reiterate that these are rosters made up of the best players at each position from each of MLB's six divisions (plus one Wild Card team from each league)? Well, I've just gone and done it again, so I guess I won't have to ask this question again until after the 2017 season. This year, I took a step beyond my usual lineup/rotation/bullpen structure and included a bench section, which means that I'm presenting full 25-man rosters, of the type that might someday face off against each other in a simulation using an upcoming MLB: The Show video game...

For this hypothetical matchup, I haven't decided whether I would use traditional playoff structure (with only one Wild Card team, of course) or a round robin style, following the structure of the image at right from ErasableTournamentBrackets.com (you're welcome for the free plug), wherein each team from each division would play each other once, with the winners of each going on to face each other in a winner take all series. To determine seeding for the playoff format, I added up the fantasy points from each player on each roster, with the following results:

1. NL West: 40,350
2. NL Central: 39,796
3. NL East: 38,769
4. NL Wild Card: 32,682

But despite the point totals, let's start thing off with the division that produced this year's World Series champion Chicago Cubs, the National League Central:


It's not difficult to see that those World Series champs were the dominant force in this division: 9 of the 25 players, or 36% of the roster, played for the Cubs. That includes 4 out of 5 members of the starting rotation, which is the same amount of TOTAL players contributed by each of the Pirates and Brewers. (The Reds came in second with 5 and the Cardinals brought up the rear with 3.) NL MVP Kris Bryant is the team's overall fantasy point leader, and I left him batting second because that's where he started the majority of his games in 2016 (83 to 62 batting third). However, I separated Bryant from his usual lineup protector, Anthony Rizzo, because in these compilation-type lineups, it's fun to switch things up from how they would normally look in real life - also because Joey Votto had the superior offensive season, both in terms of fantasy points and in offensive rWAR (5.4 to 4.6). The reason why Votto has to languish in the DH spot (yes, I'm using a DH spot for both leagues, don't make me explain why again) is because he was worth a career-worst 2.4 defensive wins BELOW replacement in the field, while Rizzo just about broke even with the glove (0.2 defensive rWAR).

I did put a fair amount of thought into these batting orders, and I understand the implications of placing two left-handed hitters back-to-back, but considering that both Votto and Rizzo put up OPS's above .830 when facing same-handed pitching, I don't think it would prove much of an issue. Some of this thought process included going against fantasy points with Andrew McCutchen's spot in the batting order for mostly sentimental reasons: the Cubs and Reds already had representatives in this lineup, and McCutchen has been the face of his franchise for so long that he deserves a shot at redemption. Since any bench that includes super utility type Sean Rodriguez is automatically a plus, the one weakness of this team has to be the bullpen after closer Mark Melancon, who is eligible for the NL Central because he spent the majority of his season there before being traded to the Nationals in the NL East. Kevin Siegrist has been a solid lefty option for three out of his four years in the bigs and Raisel Iglesias pitched well as a swingman with closer potential in 2016. But the rest of the relief corps is filled with regression candidates and significant question marks. But then again with a starting rotation this stacked (which is basically World Series winning rotation plus Carlos Martinez of the Cardinals), the bullpen likely has some significant breathing room.


A big factor in why the NL West earns the top spot in the rankings is a whopping five position players who topped the National League as a whole in production at their respective positions. The complete list is: Nolan Arenado (3B), Paul Goldschmidt (1B), Charlie Blackmon (CF), Jean Segura (2B), and Buster Posey (C), although Segura probably deserves an asterisk, since he also spent a significant amount of 2016 at shortstop (where he will presumably play next year in Seattle). Even with that caveat, the West is still the clear leader: the NL Central owns Jonathan Villar at SS and Ryan Braun in RF, while the NL East has just Christian Yelich in LF (with Daniel Murphy filling in at 2B in the unlikely event that Segura is disqualified). Even though the top of this lineup is heavily skewed to Arizona and Colorado, all five teams in the division are represented, thanks to Rookie of the Year Corey Seager of the Dodgers at SS and Wil Myers from San Diego as the DH. And even if you're so backward-thinking as to leave out the DH, Matt Kemp qualified for the West because he spent the majority of his resurgent 2016 season in San Diego before being shipped to Atlanta at the trade deadline.

Even though the West doesn't have the top-scoring NL pitcher (read on to find out who that is), they do have numbers two, three, and six. These are, respectively, Madison Bumgarner and Johnny Cueto of the Giants, and Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw, who earns the top spot in this team's starting five due to his astronomical points-per-game average, even though he missed the most significant time of his career due to injury in 2016. The last two pitchers in the rotation, Kenta Maeda and Jeff Samardzija, just reinforce how much starting pitching in the NL West was a two-horse race last year. The same can be said about relief pitching in the West, but with the Padres replacing the Giants as the other horse joining Kenley Jansen and the Dodgers, thanks to two breakout lefties from San Diego. I know that it's cheating slightly to put Jon Jay in a bench role, since he started for the Padres until his season ended due to a broken forearm, but with iron gloved Matt Kemp and Carlos Gonzalez in the outfield corners, this team needs all the defensive help it can get.


Despite MVP candidate Freddie Freeman, near-batting-champion Daniel Murphy, and once-and-future superstars Bryce Harper and Yoenis Cespedes, the NL East has the weakest offense of the three National League divisions. I mean, Christian Yelich has a lot of potential, and his possible eventual move to center field is a big plus, since I'm not that high on Odubel Herrera (despite the awesome name - and what are the odds that he's on the same Divisional All-Star team as someone named Asdrubal?). And not that this will impact any proposed simulation involving these rosters, but Wilson Ramos is due to miss some time next year after undergoing knee surgery, and his best backup option, current free agent A.J. Pierzynski, is not only uninspiring offensively, but a polarizing clubhouse figure to boot.

Speaking of players that won't make an impact in any potential simulations, a word has to be said about the tragic death of Jose Fernandez, who would have been this team's number two starter behind overall 2016 fantasy points leader Max Scherzer. I left his name in the document as a monument to his greatness, but I also provided another starter to take over for the Cuban phenom. Fernandez was a rising star who will be missed not only by his family, friends, and Marlins teammates, but by the baseball community as a whole.

On a more positive note, this pitching staff makes up for the lackluster offense with a surplus of aces to go with Scherzer. Noah Syndergaard has emerged as the clear leader of the Mets starting staff after Matt Harvey's injury troubles and Jacob deGrom's regression. Stephen Strasburg pitches behind Scherzer in real life, but he could serve as the ace for most MLB clubs. And their Nationals teammate Tanner Roark could move to the bullpen in a four-man playoff rotation scenario in favor of Julio Teheran who has started for his entire career. Like Wilson Ramos, closer Jeurys Familia will also miss the beginning of the 2017 season, albeit for more sinister reasons. But this team has his real life Mets backup, Addison Reed, ready to fill in. Also ready in the wings is the pitcher who might end up closing games for the real life Nationals if they don't get active on the free agent or trade market, Shawn Kelley.


I haven't run the numbers on this, but I'm pretty sure it's mathematically impossible for the Wild Card Divisional Roster team to finish anything but fourth place out of four in overall fantasy points. Because by design, every player on this team has at least one player at his position who outscored him (possibly more for position players because of the DH spot, many more in the case of pitchers). But despite that, this lineup looks pretty solid overall, including a batting champion (DJ LeMahieu), a home run leader (Chris Carter), and recipients of two of the winter's largest free agent contracts (Dexter Fowler and Justin Turner). Plus, when you look at the contributions on both offense and defense from cornerstones of their respective franchises Starling Marte, Yadier Molina, and Brandon Crawford, you have the makings of a scrappily underrated club. Of course, Carter still hasn't found a home and the Mets can't seem to give Jay Bruce away, but that's mostly due to quirks in the market than any deficiencies in the players themselves (excepting, of course, Bruce's struggles down the stretch last year).

This team clearly would have looked stronger with Julio Teheran atop the starting rotation instead of Dan Straily (a recent addition to the NL's All-Acquired roster), but that's obviously the least significant effect of the Jose Fernandez situation. As it stands, Straily will join fellow All-Acquired rotation mate Bartolo Colon, qualifying offer recipient Jeremy Hellickson, and Drew Pomeranz (who qualifies for the NL due to spending more time (and pitching better) with the Padres than the Red Sox last year) as the top options in a playoff rotation. Interestingly enough, lefty Travis Wood, who rounds out this team's bullpen, could potentially return to starting next year, but he would be unlikely to unseat any of the regular starters. OH also, looking at this team's bench, the presence of David Ross is obviously a historical anachronism, since the beloved backstop retired after helping his Cubs win the World Series last year, but I've already taken the screenshot (which shows that Google Docs does not recognize the abbreviations for Relief Pitcher or the Cincinnati Reds), so I'm not going to go back and fix it. He should have been replaced by Diamondbacks backup Chris Herrmann, who actually outscored Ross in terms of fantasy points (548 to 533), but who lacked the requisite 200 AB to merit official consideration on these lists.


Stay tuned for the Divisional All-Stars for the American League!

Thursday, October 16, 2014

Divisional All-Stars 2014: National League

So I made a mistake on the chart from Tuesday's post. Did anybody notice? I'll reveal it at the end in case anybody wants to take a stab at guessing what it was. I'll give you a hint: it happened when I was rearranging the bullpens in order to give everyone a lefty. I'm not changing it because it's too much of a pain to re-screen grab those charts and upload everything again. Plus, I think people should own up to their mistakes on the internet, even though I have been known to use the "Update" button if I find a particularly glaring error.

Anyway, on to the National League, going west to east, here are your Divisional All-Stars!


A pair of injuries made this team a lot worse than it might have been. If Paul Goldschmidt (1,693 / 15.5) and Troy Tulowitzki (1,455 / 16.0) had not missed the ends of their seasons (or if I put more stock in average PPG than overall fantasy points), the two of them would likely be holding down the first base and shortstop positions (as well as the 3 and 4 spots in the batting order), respectively. But as it stands, Adrian Gonzalez's penchant for driving in runs and Hanley Ramirez's last year before free agency stand front and center. Well, actually not too center for Hanley, whose own injury-shortened season was not bad, but neither was it spectacular enough to overshadow any of the four star outfielders who hit above him in my batting order. Other than one of those outfielders, this offense is made up entirely of Dodgers and Giants, which is not surprising considering one of those teams won the second-most games in the league and the other very well might be heading to its third world series in five years.

Speaking of the Dodgers and the Giants, this top three doesn't quite rival the AL Central team, but it comes close. Well, maybe less close if you take the playoff version of Clayton Kershaw as opposed to his regular season variety, but he's still undeniably the best pitcher in the sport right now. Meanwhile, Petco Park continues to revitalize the careers of marginal pitchers, both in the rotation and the bullpen. While it's not a requirement for me to have these teams feature a player from each club in their respective divisions (the AL Central was notably Twins-absent, but both Brian Dozier and Phil Hughes showed up in the AL Wild Card squad), the Diamondbacks do get a representative in Brad Ziegler, who just barely squeaked in over Tim Stauffer (616 / 14.0), who was cut to make room for the lefty Jeremy Affeldt.


This team is pretty self-explanatory, except that it might seem weird to have Josh Harrison, a guy who qualified at three different positions last year, listed as the DH. In fact, it might seem weird to have a DH listed at all on a National League team, but I always prefer getting a ninth batter in there so we can more easily compare the two leagues to each other. Notable exceptions include rookie base stealing phenom Billy Hamilton and reputation rebuilding slugger Ryan Braun, who haven't yet become / aren't anymore considered to be one of the elite central division players. Also, Cubs franchise shortstop Starlin Castro narrowly missed inclusion in favor of the formerly steroid-aided power of Jhonny Peralta, making him the second Divisional All-Star who was suspended in 2013 due to Biogenesis related issues.

Before looking at this post, I wondered who would have guessed that 2014's highest overall fantasy point scorer was Reds ace Johnny Cueto, but that was indeed the case. He didn't quite reach Kershaw's point per game totals, but remember the Dodgers' top pitcher also missed most of the first month of the season due to injury. Like Kershaw, Adam Wainwright is another guy whose regular season far outshines his playoff performance, plus it's pretty much thanks to him that the NL won't receive home field advantage in this year's World Series, but you can't get a much more solid number 2 starter. But do you know who actually (very slightly) outperformed Waino in PPG? The surprisingly successful Jake Arrieta, who might be a reason for Cubs fans to have some hope for the future - that and the roughly 1,000 promising offensive prospects they have moments away from the majors.

K-Rod is back, and just in time for him to hit free agency again! His last couple of go-rounds, he's signed with the Brewers at a discounted rate, but with Jim Henderson due back from shoulder surgery and Jonathan Broxton still under contract, the need might not be great in Milwaukee. Pat Neshek and Tony Watson present what might be the best righty/lefty combo in this little experiment (their main competition being Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller in the AL East).


This lineup is a little top-heavy, with Giancarlo Stanton's season-ending injury coming later enough than those of his fellow MVP candidates from the NL West that he still easily leads this club in points. Anthony Rendon did give him a run for his money, however, which is all the more impressive considering he did it while playing two different positions, and that he's still playing out the contract he signed out of the draft in 2011. (The questionable nature of the 5th year option in that deal is the reason for the question mark in his Free Agency status column.) With Denard Span's club option a virtual lock to be picked up following a season in which he set a Nationals franchise record in hits, this team has a staggering zero players slated to hit the open market next year.

Looking at Tanner Roark's numbers and the way they match up with the other powerhouse starters in this rotation, it's a crying shame that he wasn't utilized more in this year's postseason. Not that it there's a guarantee that it would have made a difference in the Nationals' chances, but he's too talented to be used as an occasional short reliever. Speaking of short relievers, the ones on this club leave a little to be desired. Carlos Torres pitched a ton of innings and Tyler Clippard is a former closer, but if I were Craig Kimbrel, arguably the best closer in the game, I would hope for a slightly better bridge from my starters.  It might be a little unfair to have Alex Wood in the swingman slot here, since his point total would put him as the number 2 starter on the NL Wild Card team, but he did relieve in enough games to qualify, so in a way he justifies the lack of a true setup ace.


Unlike his middle infield partner in Philadelphia, Jimmy Rollins has showed some signs of slowing these last few years, but he brought just enough speed and pop to beat out Tulo's injury shortened season for the Wild Card shortstop honors. Ditto for both Lucas Duda and Adam LaRoche, except replace Tulo with Goldy and omit the part about the speed. Overall, this lineup is a little bit awkward looking, not only because it's overwhelmingly left-handed, but because it lacks a clear established middle of the order thumper. Devin Mesoraco's season was a revelation when healthy, but neither he nor Corey Dickerson have a track record to think that they won't seriously regress toward the mean. But the same thing happened to Matt Carpenter from last year and he still ended up on this team, so perhaps there is hope yet.

Speaking of regression, there is no way that fill-in starter Alfredo Simon comes close to the dominance that he showed in the first half of this season, but I can picture him morphing into a very valuable bullpen piece if he struggles as the innings pile up. Doug Fister on the other hand is only getting better, as he looks to have figured things out in his first year in the NL. Jonathan Papelbon doesn't exactly inspire confidence in the back end of the bullpen, but as it happens they have an insurance policy in Mets closer Jenrry Mejia, who started enough games to qualify for swingman status. Plus Philly's closer-in-waiting Ken Giles is also waiting in the wings.


So there you have it: four teams made up of the best of the NL organized by division and position, to go with the AL's four similar teams. Speaking of the AL, the answer to my above trivia question as to what mistake I made on Tuesday: Yankees reliever Adam Warren was mistakenly placed on the Wild Card team when he really should have been on the AL East squad, switching place with Blue Jays lefty Brett Cecil. Riveting stuff, I know. At least you know that someone is paying attention...

Tuesday, October 14, 2014

Divisional All-Stars 2014: American League

I know the playoffs are in full swing, but now that the A's are out of it, I'll leave the day-to-day commentary to the beat reporters and analysts that spend more time following the games themselves (or at least to the bloggers who have access to cable TV on which to watch the games). Instead, I'll publish the first fruits of my exhaustive 2014 baseball database in the form of an age-old project of mine: Divisional All-Stars! For those of you who haven't seen any of the other times I've done this project in the past, it basically consists of eight lineups - one for each division plus one wild card team in each league - made up of the best players at each respective position in that division.

The format in each year has been slightly different, but what gave me the most consistent tsuris was figuring out how to place players who changed teams (or, more specifically, divisions) mid-season. I've tried it where a player belongs to the division in which he received the most plate appearances or scored the most fantasy points. But this year, seeing as I spent so much time keeping up to date 40 man rosters this season, I'd just have each player belong to the team with which he finished the season. That might be a blatant bias towards the AL West, who gets two top of the line starting pitchers and an elite closer while losing just Yoenis Cespedes. But we'll see how it works, and if it's terribly overpowered, we can always try another pass. It's not baseball blogging unless you have to do it twice!

Since I was just talking about the AL West, that seems like a perfect place to start:


Starting your lineup with the AL batting champion and following that up with the universally-agreed-upon best player in baseball is not a bad place to be as far as this little thought experiment is concerned. Second string second baseman Cano performed just a tick below the next couple people in the lineup, but I thought it was important to get a lefty in there (if only so we could have someone to pinch hit Jonny Gomes for in a crucial situation), plus I've heard that lineup construction doesn't matter much anyway. Second base was obviously deep in this division - Howie Kendrick had a great season but remains on the bench - but third base was even deeper, with both Adrian Beltre and Kyle Seager showing up on the AL Wild Card team (see below).

The presence of Brandon Moss in the outfield is a good reason to say a word about positional eligibility: in order to be play at a certain position, a player needed at least 20 games at that position during the regular season, with the exception of corner outfielders (who I allow to play either corner outfield spot) and center fielders (who I allow to play any outfield spot). Moss qualified in both right and left field, as he filled in for the injured Josh Reddick and the departed Yoenis Cespedes, respectively. It's interesting that Moss scored higher than his nearest competition (Dustin Ackley) by nearly 200 points despite his abysmal second half, which was caused by either the departure of his beloved lineup protector Cespedes or the torn cartilage in his hip that required offseason surgery... YOU DECIDE!

I mentioned that Lester and Samardzija would not have belonged to this team if I had used the formula from years past, but this starting staff would still have been pretty darned impressive without them: Jered Weaver would have taken the fourth slot with one of either Dallas Keuchel or Hisashi Iwakuma to follow. As it stands, all three of them ended up on the Wild Card team. The same goes for the closer position: Wild Card stopper Fernando Rodney did almost as well as Street in his first season with the Mariners, while David Robertson of the Yankees would easily finish games for the best-of-the-rest. Just for a minute, look at Otero's numbers vs. Gregerson's (even not accounting for the blown saves) and tell me who you think should have been pitching in late and close situations.


Remember the days when Victor Martinez qualified as a catcher? Or when Miguel Cabrera was a third baseman? If either of those was still the case, this team could have had those two plus rookie sensation Jose Abreu holding down the 3-4-5 spots in the batting order. I feel like it's a little ironic that the reason Carlos Santana no longer qualifies behind the plate is the emergence of Yan Gomes, who is no slouch, but at least the Santana at third base experiment worked well enough to avoid having Trevor Plouffe start at the hot corner. Meanwhile, if breakout star Michael Brantley hadn't qualified in center field, this team would have had to put up with Rajai Davis instead of Torii Hunter. Speaking of Hunter, I made a somewhat sentimental decision to start him rather than his teammate who had another breakout year, J.D. Martinez (1,592 points / 12.9 PPG) because a) Hunter has a stronger track record of success than one partial season and b) it might be his last year if he decides to retire.

There's no doubt that this squad has the strongest starting rotation out of all the Divisional All-Star teams, and it wouldn't even have been close if David Price were disqualified and replaced with Phil Hughes, the Wild Card's staff ace. I don't believe that Corey Kluber should win the Cy Young over Felix Hernandez, but he did have a season for the ages, Chris Sale was dominant, even having missed time in the beginning of the year, and both Max Scherzer and James Shields likely pitched themselves into supermassive free agent contracts. The bullpen is basically the same thing that Royals fans got to watch all season long with a couple guys from Cleveland thrown in. I also fudged the numbers to get Phil Coke in there instead of Al Alburquerque, because studies have shown that it's good to have at least one lefty in the pen for those tough matchups.


At first glance, it isn't hard to tell that this team is all about the Dominican Republic: the first five spots in the lineup are filled with guys who the Dominicans would LOVE to trot out there in the next World Baseball Classic. But cultural solidarity was not the only reason for arranging the lineup thus: even though a guy like Zobrist profiles more as a prototypical #2 hitter while Bautista would normally hit in a middle of the order power position, I took a page out of the Mike Scioscia/Sabermetrics book and bat the team's strongest hitter second (he actually started 21 games at that spot in the batting order this year, enough to qualify there if I used the same system as defensive positions).

The rotation definitely looks a little weak, especially considering the other two divisions we've seen so far. Tanaka obviously has lights-out stuff, but the status of his partially torn UCL has got to be troubling to the Yankees, even though his long term doesn't necessarily enter into this project. In the meantime, it feels like none of these other four guys would be aces on the majority of contending teams. The bullpen is rock solid though, with a first year closer who's really blossomed in the role, three well-publicized middle relief aces, and a rookie who totally flew under everybody's radar to put up an awesome season. It looks like this team's strategy would be to out-slug its opponents early while holding on for dear life in the late game.


With the Wild Card team, I like to start off with a quick breakdown of what divisions were deep enough to supply an overflow. In this case, we have five from the central, six from the east, and a whopping 10 from the west. Most of those western folks are pitchers, as I mentioned earlier. Most of the central folks are batters, including the two top offensive scorers Dozier and Abreu. And the east fills in the outfield and bullpen cracks. It's interesting to see that almost all these starters outmatch the starters on the AL East team, but where this team is at a huge disadvantage is in the bullpen, where none of the ace setup men are available. There seems to be a good mix of impact power hitters and scrappy contact/speed guys in the lineup, which could prove for some frustrating matchups for opposing clubs.


Next time I'll come back with the NL teams. Until then, go back to watching the actual playoffs.

Thursday, December 6, 2012

NL Central Divisional All-Stars 2012

Now for the final division before we get into the Wild Cards. This is the division that brought you the MLB's two worst teams in 2012, but also the NL's highest overall point scorer. Let's see if this team displays the same level of disconnect. I bring you:

NL CENTRAL DIVISIONAL ALL-STARS



The aforementioned NL high-scorer is the only player to appear on all four of my Divisional All-Star lists is the steroid-popping, guilt-sidestepping, former MVP and 2012 league leader in runs scored, HR, and OPS, Brewers slugging LF Ryan Braun. Now, Aramis Ramirez is no slouch - he led the league with 50 doubles and had an OPS over .900 while hitting behind Braun in the regular season, plus he earned the NL Central starting 3B job last year too while with the Cubs - it's just that he doesn't strike the same kind of fear into opposing pitchers that Prince Fielder did when he hit clean-up for Milwaukee in the recent past. It's interesting though that with Fielder and Albert Pujols signing huge contracts to move to the AL and with Joey Votto injured, a Brewer still ended up as the starting 1B on this team: Corey Hart turned in a fine season after shifting from RF (where he repped Milwaukee on the 2010 AL Central team). Andrew McCutchen continued his steady rise to superstardom with a trifecta of accolades: a Gold Glove, a Silver Slugger, and his second consecutive All-Star berth - he even came in third in MVP voting, despite his Pirates' inability to log their first winning season in a decade. Starlin Castro, like McCutchen, has appeared on this team for the past three years, was named to his second All-Star team in 2012, and played for a losing team.

Two pairs of teammates from one of the league's biggest rivalries (and with 11 Divisional All-Star appearances between them) round out this squad: Yadier Molina had by far his best season ever, earning his fifth consecutive Gold Glove, his fourth consecutive All-Star appearance, and surpassing his previous career-high in OPS by 60 points. Matt Holliday obviously played second-fiddle to Braun, but makes it in as the DH. It's interesting to note that Holliday's first appearance in this feature in 2009 was for the AL West, as he spent the majority of his season in Oakland. Brandon Phillips reprises his leadoff role for this squad from last year despite nearly 200 fewer points. Jay Bruce is the only one from this paragraph with less than three appearances, and last year's was as the Wild Card's DH - hey, can you blame him for playing a deep position in a tough division?

Top free agent starter Zack Greinke's inclusion in this division (he had a 123 to 89 IP split between the Brewers and the Angels after a mid-season trade) makes this team one of only two clubs to feature four 2,000+ point-scorers in the rotation. (The other, as you'd know if you were paying attention last week, was the AL East.) But at the top of the rotation, we once again see the Reds/Cardinals rivalry manifesting itself. Leading the pack is my fantasy team's ace Johnny Cueto - whose pick in the 14th round ALMOST made up for Cliff Lee's no-win-itis. Another free agent (and, in my opinion, a huge candidate to see a drop-off in production) Kyle Lohse (of the ridiculous 18-3, .847 winning percentage) was not far behind. A couple newcomers to the division round out the rotation: Mat Latos overcame a slow start after coming from the Padres in a big trade to contribute to Cincinnati's dominant pitching attack, and A.J. Burnett returned to form upon leaving the Yankees and became the Pirates' unlikely ace.

The three Reds in this group proves that Cincinnati's pitching attack came at both ends of the game. Aroldis Chapman had one of the most dominant seasons out of the bullpen ever - his last for the foreseeable future, since he is likely to move to the rotation next year. Lefty Sean Marshall is the only reliever to have appeared on a previous Divisional All-Star team, and he's appeared on all of them - the last two years as a setup man and the year before that as a swingman for the Cubs. Mitchell Boggs will likely continue setting up closer runner-up Jason Motte in St. Louis and Jose Arredondo used to pitch for the Angels, but as for the other two, I couldn't have named them prior to (heck, even halfway through) this season. Brad Lincoln still qualifies for the NL Central despite having been shipped to Toronto for a former #6 ranked prospect by Baseball America - which seems kind of unbalanced (even if the ranking was from three years ago), but I guess when you need bullpen help, you need it bad and quick.


This concludes the six Divisional All-Star squads corresponding to MLB's six divisions. Before coming back with the Wild Card teams, I've got a little project that I've been waiting to unveil, which will likely take precedence over the weekend. Until then, keep watching that Hot Stove to make sure your pots and pans full of rumors don't boil over!

Tuesday, December 4, 2012

AL East Divisional All-Stars 2012

The polar opposite of yesterday's team in terms of division and league (but not talent level), I now bring you the:

AL EAST DIVISIONAL ALL-STARS



This lineup consists of three Yankee infielders who each have appeared on three out of the last four Divisional All-Star teams. Two of them will likely not return next year. Let's see if you can guess who. 38-year-old Derek Jeter showed no signs of slowing down last year, leading the league in plate appearances and hits, and winning his fifth Silver Slugger award... until he broke his ankle during the post-season, putting his opening day status in doubt. 29-year-old Robinson Cano is not so arguably the top 2B in the game, he reached the 30 HR plateau for the first time this year en route to his fourth Silver Slugger and second Gold Glove. 36-year-old Alex Rodriguez hasn't played 140 games in five years, he's only on this list because his injury-riddled 2012 season was less catastrophic than Evan Longoria's injury-riddled 2012 season, and he's about to miss the first half of 2013 with hip surgery. There might have been a fourth Yankee on this list: IF I had chosen to use only the points players scored in their respective division, THEN Mark Teixeira's 1,576 points would have ruled the day. But I chose to include the full season of now four-time Divisional All-Star Adrian Gonzalez - he moved back to his old division mid-2012 in the most epic waiver-wire blockbuster trade in history.


Blue Jays DH Edwin Encarnacion edged Cano by a mere 12 points to be the team's highest offensive scorer. Think of what Toronto's offense could have looked like if Jose Bautista's injuries hadn't made a mockery of my #1 pick in this year's fantasy draft. Taking his place in RF is the ever-versatile Ben Zobrist who this year added his original position (SS) back to his usual 2B-RF repertoire. His teammate Desmond Jennings becomes perhaps the least-qualified Divisional All-Star, but I just couldn't bring myself to move Curtis Granderson over to a position where he didn't play a single inning in 2012. He missed out in CF to the Orioles' $85 million dollar man Adam Jones who, along with Matt Wieters, looks to lead a competitive birds team for the rest of the decade.

Any starting rotation led by the Cy Young award winner is sure to be exciting, even though Justin Verlander had a slightly more impressive fantasy season. The fact that all five of these pitchers come from only two teams makes it somewhat less exciting, although David Price's fellow Ray James Shields could very well find himself changing uniforms before the off-season is over. The combination of Sabathia, Kuroda, and Hughes (who each tallied at least 15 wins for the Yankees last year) will be back together next year, although the star of New York's 2013 rotation just might be 41-year-old Andy Pettitte, whose 2.87 ERA in 12 games after his 17th comeback from retirement prompted him to re-up with the club that made him a star.

Where the rotation was comprised solely of Rays and Yankees, the bullpen has only Rays and Orioles. Comeback player of the year Fernando Rodney turned in the best year out of any reliever in 2012 - an ERA under 1.00 will best even a 105 mph fastball from a tumbling Cuban superstar. Relief stalwart Darren O'Day makes his third appearance after showing up two years in a row with Texas, but no other pitcher in this group has made a Divisional All-Star team before. The Rays have such a glut at starting pitching that they were able to let Wade Davis try his hand at relieving, which worked out quite well. Jake McGee fills that ever-important lefty role in the first season he's spent entirely in the majors. Carlos Villanueva reprises his role as swingman - a role I clearly don't count as part of the bullpen proper, since he pitched for the Blue Jays and showed up on this team last year.

Monday, December 3, 2012

NL West Divisional All-Stars 2012

With the Winter Meetings in full swing, some big changes to the Free Agency landscape have already occurred, some of them affecting this very team! With that in mind, let's change leagues but stay in the same geographical location as last time, to give you the division that brought you this year's World Series Champions:

NL WEST DIVISIONAL ALL-STARS



The World Champion San Francisco Giants are well-represented in all parts of the lineup: Angel Pagan, the erstwhile free agent who just re-upped with his former team in one of the above-mentioned transactions, leads off as he did for the 2010 NL Wild Card team while representing the Mets. Buster Posey bats third after winning the NL MVP, Silver Slugger, and batting title in a crucial year following a brutal leg injury. And Marco Scutaro serves as the team's DH after being both traded and acquired by teams in the NL West. (Usually when a good player changes team's midseason, I have to choose one division, based on where he played more or scored more fantasy points, whichever is more advantageous. It's a slightly questionable practice, but luckily in this situation there was no choice to be made.) The team's highest offensive scorer, breakout 3B Chase Headley, earned some hardware of his own (a Silver Slugger and Gold Glove) while becoming the first Padre to start on the NL West team since Adrian Gonzalez left the division after the 2010 season. Also from San Diego is surprise SS Everth Cabrera, whose league-leading 44 SB allowed him to fill in for injured Troy Tulowitzki, who had been the NL Wests's starting SS for all three years of this feature.

Colorado has another NL West stalwart in Carlos Gonzalez, who has reached the 20-20 plateau in each of the last three seasons, although he hasn't come close to his ridiculous unreal 2009 in which he hit 37 HR and won the batting title, Silver Slugger, and Gold Glove awards. He actually picked up another GG this season... despite the fact that he cost his team nearly two whole wins with his defensive ineptitude (-1.9 dWAR, 9 Zone Fielding Runs BELOW Average in 2012). The remaining three spots are filled by Diamondbacks (no Dodgers in this lineup - that should change next year with (hopefully) full seasons from Matt Kemp, Adrian Gonzalez, and Hanley Ramirez). Aaron Hill showed that he can once again have a flukily-amazing season at 2B as he did for Toronto in 2009. Justin Upton maintains his spot in RF despite a drop of nearly 500 points from his output last year. And Paul Goldschmidt had his moment in the sun as the second-highest-scoring 1B in the entire NL (behind the NL East's Adam LaRoche).

Moving to the defensive side, Matt Cain is the only pitcher to have appeared in the NL West's starting rotation all four years of this feature. However, he's never been more deserving than in 2012, where he reached career highs in W's and K's, and career (full season) lows in ERA and BB's, not to mention his historic perfect game. His lefty compliment Clayton Kershaw didn't equal his astounding 3,000-point Cy Young-award winning performance from last year, but he was still the top fantasy LHP in the game, leading the league in ERA and WHIP. Madison Bumgarner and Ryan Vogelsong are two Giants starters who jumped to the divisional rotation from the Wild Card rotation last year, while Rookie of the Year runner-up Wade Miley of the Diamondbacks makes his first appearance in his first full season.

After sporting five different 2,000+ point closers in the last three years (Jonathan Broxton, Heath Bell (once for the division and once for the Wild Card), J.J. Putz, and Brian Wilson (WC)), the 2012 NL West suffered from inconsistency at the back end of their bullpen with Kenley Jansen leading the pack - despite the fact that he didn't take over from Javy Guerra until the end of April and gave way to Brandon League in the middle of August. Luke Gregerson once again turned in a stellar setup season, as he also did two of the previous three years. David Hernandez also has two previous appearances - one last year as an NL West setup man and one in 2010 as an AL East swingman. Brad Ziegler and Ronald Belisario make their first appearances since 2009, with Ziegler making his first divisional appearance (he last represented Oakland on the AL Wild Card team). One weakness in this bullpen is the lack of a lefty reliever - Dale Thayer unfortunately earned the last spot due to his inflated stats from his short time as the Padres fill-in closer (which corresponded to the time he spent on my fantasy team). If I was really building this lineup, I'd switch him with COL LHP Rex Brothers. Josh Collmenter became a part-time starter after finishing 5th in ROY voting last year, and looks to remain there with top prospects Patrick Corbin and Tyler Skaggs waiting in the wings.

Friday, November 30, 2012

AL West Divisional All-Stars 2012

It's Friday, a new Undercover Boss airs this evening on CBS (if you liked Stephen Cloobeck from the Season 3 premiere, be sure to tune in), and I deserve to write about the division that houses my favorite team. So let's move out west but stay in the same league for today's installment of the 2012 Divisional All-Stars. Here's the lineup and analysis:

AL WEST DIVISIONAL ALL-STARS



As has been the case for the last couple of years, the offense on this squad is very Texas-heavy. We all know how well Josh Hamilton was doing before his famous caffeine overdose slowed the former MVP's production. What we DON'T know is what team will be willing to shell out for his services next year and beyond. Adrian Beltre, an All-Star with both his bat (5.5 oWAR) and his glove (1.4 dWAR), successfully defends his starting 3B crown from last year. Recent astrological research shows that Ian Kinsler, who had been incorrectly languishing on the Gemini team, actually belongs to Cancer, my own sign's team. That little gaffe on my part very well might have cost us the fantasy-astrology championship. Mike Napoli was named to his first actual All-Star team this year, the fifth in a row in which he reached 20 home runs - pretty impressive for a catcher.

The Angels are represented with two of the highest-profile players in the league. Last off-season, Albert Pujols went through the same free agent rigamarole Josh Hamilton is currently going through, although Mike Trout's Rookie of the Year presence in the Angels outfield will likely prevent his going to the same team where Phat Albert ended up. The A's also have two players on this team, but despite Josh Reddick winning a gold glove, Yoenis Cespedes finishing second in ROY voting, and each picking up some MVP votes, the players repping the Green & Gold flew much lower under the radar than their counterparts. You'll notice also that I was a little liberal with assigning positions, considering Hamilton played mostly in CF and Cespedes played in LF. However, both players spent enough time at their secondary positions to qualify in fantasy, and it wasn't worth relegating Hamilton to the Wild Card team in favor of Michael Young's 1,457 points at DH.

It took us the entire offense, but we finally have a Mariner on this list: in the year of his perfect game, King Felix Hernandez headlines this staff as he did in 2009 and '10. Last year he finished behind the trio of Jered Weaver, Dan Haren, and C.J. Wilson, of which only the first pitcher returns this year, after leading the league in wins and WHIP. First-time All-Star Matt Harrison makes the divisional team for the first time as a starter: in 2010 he made the squad as a swingman, and in 2011 he started for the Wild Card team. Yu Darvish also makes his first appearance, which is appropriate since it's his first year since coming to the majors from Japan. Jason Vargas has come into his own as a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter just in time for his last year of arbitration eligibility.

Joe Nathan hasn't been a star reliever since he dominated the AL Central with Minnesota in 2009, but a weak closer class this year gives him the crown once again at age 37. My close personal friend Jerry Blevins (he signed my book of stats during Spring Training 2011) and rookie Robbie Ross hold it down from the left side, while it's interesting that the three righty relievers in this bullpen have all spent time as starters earlier in their careers. Depending on what happens with free agents Zack Greinke and Dan Haren, Angels swingman Jerome Williams might find himself with an opportunity to start full time.

Thursday, November 29, 2012

AL Central Divisional All-Stars

In the past, I have always ordered this feature by league and geographically by division, but this year I thought I'd mix it up and jump around a bit. So without further ado, here's the 2012 version of the...

AL CENTRAL DIVISIONAL ALL-STARS



Three key positions from the AL Champion Detroit Tigers remain intact in this lineup - I guess you don't get to the World Series with schlubs in the 1, 3, and 4 spots in the order. Austin Jackson makes his first appearance in this feature in his third full season with an OPS more than 100 points above his previous career high. Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder on the other hand have never missed an appearance: Miggy was the AL Central's starting 1B the last 3 years running and the change back to his original position only seemed to increase his production, what with his MVP/Triple Crown performance. Fielder has bounced around a little: he started at 1B for the NL Central last year (ahead of both Joey Votto and Albert Pujols), was relegated to the Wild Card team in 2010 (behind Votto and Pujols), and earned a spot as the NL Central's DH in 2009 (behind Pujols, but ahead of Votto and the surprisingly resurgent Derrek Lee).

Sandwiched between those Tigers is one of two Twins to merit inclusion on this list (surprising based on how dismal their season was). While Joe Mauer will likely never approach his legendary 2009 that led to a record contract, but his high batting average and plate discipline still make him one of the top catchers in the game. Speaking of impossible-to-live-up-to contracts, Alex Rios has had two out of three good seasons since leaving the team that signed him and going to Chicago, even garnering some MVP votes in 2012 for the first time in his career. Back to the Twins, left fielder Josh Willingham returns from last year where he DH'd for the AL West team representing the A's. As Willingham's 2011 placement indicates, I tend to play fast and loose with the DH position even in the AL, since many teams are using it not as a full-time spot, but as a way to rest their veterans on a regular basis. But the Royals' regular DH Billy Butler happened to be the best candidate to fill that position on this team. Jason Kipnis just missed rookie eligibility (not that it would have mattered with the likes of Mike Trout in the equation), but he could develop the power/speed abilities worth building a team around.

Except for 2009 when he played second-fiddle to Zack Greinke's unbelievable season, Justin Verlander has been the ace of the AL Central staff every year since I started this feature, and deservedly so. Chris Sale graduated from Divisional All-Star setup man to Divisional All-Star SP2, and his teammate Jake Peavy makes his first appearance on this list in his first injury-free season since before he joined the White Sox in '09. Scherzer and Fister are repeats (Scherzer is in fact a three-peat), although Fister's place on the '11 list is somewhat controversial: he pitched more innings for Seattle, which would place him in the AL West, but he scored more points for Detroit. I'm usually very scientific about these things, but sometimes the heart has to triumph over the head.

Talk about the volatility of Major League relief pitchers - exactly ONE member of this bullpen showed up on any other divisional All-Star team since 2009: Vinnie Pestano of the Indians. His teammate gained the closer role with a mediocre season after Jose Valverde (famously perfect in save situations in '11) flamed out and lost his job in the playoffs. Anthony Swarzak on the Twins can't seem to hold on to a starter spot, which makes it questionable why he needs to be included here, but I'm a sucker for a swingman.

With this new system I have in place, who can tell which team will show up here tomorrow? The only way to find out is to tune in!

Wednesday, November 28, 2012

NL East Divisional All-Stars 2012

Since I'm taking a more casual, relaxed approach to my quest towards 100% completion of LEGO: The Lord of the Rings, it's going to be a while until I have anything of note to report on that front. Let's just say at this point I'm focusing my efforts on unlocking the score multipliers so I'll be able to purchase all the interesting characters at a much faster rate. The one time I strayed from this plan was to purchase the "8-bit music" upgrade, which, to my complete and utter disappointment, WASN'T an 8-bit rendition of Howard Shore's music that we love so well, but a dull, boring, generic background tune - at least for the overworld. I haven't tried it out in-level yet, so I may yet be pleasantly surprised.

My next project - a video Power Hour based on Batman: The Animated Series - is nearing completion, so expect a detailed analysis of that as soon as it's ready to hit the presses (by which I mean probably YouTube). So until then, let me return to a best-loved feature of mine, one that was not published last year due to my unhealthy yet creatively productive obsession with Batman: Arkham City - Major League Baseball Divisional All-Stars! To recap: these are lineups consisting of the best players at each position in each division (East, West, Central, and one Wild Card - screw the new two-team setup). I'll provide the lineup (arranged according to my projected batting order) and then provide some analysis, including mentioning runners-up when applicable. Hope you enjoy the first of eight painstakingly researched lineups!

NL EAST DIVISIONAL ALL-STARS



Jose Reyes may have played for a different team than in 2011, but he stayed in the same division, which allowed him to repeat as starting SS and leadoff hitter for the NL East squad. He hit 50 points lower than his league-leading .337 average last year, but not for lack of trying: his 716 plate appearances were the most of anyone in the league. The NL East is known for producing a glut of star shortstops, and 2012 was no exception: Jimmy Rollins was not only the 2nd-highest scoring SS, but he was also the team's 9th-highest scorer overall, allowing him to claim a spot on this lineup as the DH - which is ironic because J-Roll won a Gold Glove in 2012. I chose to bat him 6th (or "second leadoff") rather than 2nd despite his point advantage over Michael Bourn because, as an NL team, this squad won't have Rollins available to start every day and I didn't want to gum up the chemistry in such a crucial spot in the order. Plus, as table-setters go, Bourn is probably the better fit with a 30 point advantage in OBP.

I wanted the heart of the order to alternate handedness of the batters, so I sandwiched David Wright (who had a nice comeback after injuries kept the 2010 starting 3B off the list in 2011) between two power lefties making their first Divisional All-Star appearances: Jason Heyward (who flashed 20/20 power/speed after suffering through a sophomore slump last year) and Adam LaRoche (who took advantage of an injury to NL East 1B stalwart Ryan Howard to post Silver Slugger numbers). Carlos Ruiz's rise to prominence as an elite backstop perfectly coincides with runner-up Brian McCann's slide into mediocrity: the Braves' hometown hero missed inclusion this year for the first time since I started blogging this feature in 2009. In a similar vein, slugging 2B Dan Uggla (who had held the spot two years running, first with the Marlins, then with the Braves) fell to Danny Espinosa by the margin of one point.

Perhaps the most shocking development in this year's NL East pitching staff is the absence of 3-time ace Roy Halladay (twice for the NL East, once for the AL East). In his place is surprise Cy Young winner R.A. Dickey. The ulnar collateral ligament-less knuckleballer, ranked 303 by MLB prior to the season, ended up leading the league in innings, strikeouts, complete games, and shutouts. He's followed by a trio of lefties: Cole Hamels (who was supposed to be the Phillies' SP3, but was forced to take on the role of ace), Gio Gonzalez (who led the league in wins), and Cliff Lee (who couldn't buy a win with his $21.5mm 2012 salary, despite a league-best 7.39 K/BB ratio). I'm pleased to announce that Stephen Strasburg will make an appearance on this team, despite being shut down in the most controversial personnel decision of the year.

Craig Kimbrel was once again the closer to beat in the NL, pushing the division's newest bullpen addition (Jonathan Papelbon, 1,966 points) to the curb. Just when we had gotten used to seeing Tyler Clippard in the setup role, an injury to Drew Storen made him the de facto closer, but fortunately his replacement Craig Stammen did quite well. Despite Frank Francisco's 5.50+ ERA, the Mets never committed to making Bobby Parnell the full-time closer. This team has the luxury of having both a long lefty (Gorzelanny) and a situational lefty (O'Flaherty), which should make playing matchups that much easier. Kris Medlen was one of the best starters down the stretch after being a very effective reliever the rest of the season, so the swingman role is a perfect place to put him.

Wednesday, January 11, 2012

Top Players: AL & NL 2011

While the analysis of Box Office numbers is fun and insightful and economically significant, let's not forget the original focus of this blog: Baseball statistics. Using my patented Baseball Database, I have calculated the Top Players in each position in each league, which I now present in lineup form.







Some pretty impressive players all around. A good mix of young players and veterans, expected performers and breakout stars. Let's break them down further, not by position or by team, but by how they were expected to do from a fantasy standpoint. Granted, my system is going to be a little incongruous, cuz I'm using mlb.com's rankings and a form of calculating fantasy points (swp) that has been outdated for many years. But I believe that in combining the two, I'll arrive at a sort of Hegelian synthesis of fantasy evaluation methods.


Four (4) of our players ranked within the Top 10 according to MLB: 1B Miguel Cabrera (who anchored my fantasy team btw), SS Troy Tulowitzki, LF Ryan Braun (who won this year's NL MVP, prior to a positive PED test), and 1B Joey Votto. By contrast, there were four (4) total batters who ranked out of the top 100: CF Curtis Granderson (who surpassed all expectations by destroying his career-highs in HR, RBIs, runs and walks), C Miguel Montero (high-ranked catchers are very hard to come by, since catchers as a position don't produce a lot of points), SS Asdrubal Cabrera (a legitimate breakout All-Star season), and LF Alex Gordon. Gordon, a former 3B prospect [see also Ryan Braun] who everyone had just about given up on, was by far the lowest-ranked starter among all others on the team (458).


The highest-ranked pitcher was Roy Halladay (16). The two hurlers who accomplished the near-superhuman feat of breaking 3,000 points were ranked 32 (Kershaw) and 50 (Verlander). One starting pitcher from each league had surprising and unexpected seasons: Ian Kennedy (232) and James Shields (240). Non-Closer Relief Pitchers rarely contribute enough points to warrant a roster spot (unless your league measures Holds, in which case you'll need a couple of the best). Craig Kimbrel was this year's Rookie of the Year, so it's understandable why he was ranked 213 - just 9 slots higher than teammate Jonny Venters, who had a shot to win the closer role right up until opening day. Valverde, who performed significantly worse than Kimbrel in terms of both stats and ability to control his emotions, ranked 117.



This is all part of an ongoing process to use these numbers to hone in on different players' fantasy value, but updates on that project will have to wait, as there is a whole real world out there to see and experience.

Wednesday, January 5, 2011

AL Wild Card Divisional All-Stars

With this eight-part series drawing to a close, I find myself ready and yet reluctant to let it fade. It's been great to give myself an overview of the best performers of 2010, but on the other hand, my left brain is so swamped with stats and numbers and rankings that it's hard to keep everything straight. I'll attempt to provide a little perspective along with the numbers when I present this "Best of the Rest" Wild Card lineup:




























Wow, look at Juan Pierre's swp/WAR ratio: unsightly much? This is probably a perfect storm of one metric drastically overvaluing (probably due to steals being worth 30 swp each) and one metric drastically undervaluing (probably because of the lack of extra base hits, which we all know produce lots of runs). He was the AL's fourth highest scoring left fielder to Delmon Young by just 1 swp, which is funny because the best and second best (by far) left fielders came from the East and West respectively: Carl Crawford of the New Big Contract and Josh Hamilton of the MVP honors.

Like Pierre, John Buck was another "True Wild Card" candidate: fourth place in the league in terms of stats. The Twins' Joe Mauer was obviously the best, the Red Sox's Victor Martinez was next (although he will be playing next season with the Tigers), and then the Angels' Mike Napoli (who actually spent the majority of his time at first base... no one has to know...). Billy Butler was likewise the fourth best first baseman, but his case is slightly different because the four teams actually feature five first basemen: Detroit's Miguel Cabrera is #1, his runner-up, Paul Konerko, serves as the AL Central's DH, the Yankees' Mark Teixeira led his division, and Butler is sandwiched between him and the A's' Daric Barton.

Despite his Wild Card berth, Nick Swisher amassed the third best swp as a right fielder, behind Jose Bautista and Shin-Soo Choo, but just edging out Bobby Abreu in the West. Same circumstances for B.J. Upton, who again fell behind his Central and Eastern center field counterparts (Alex Rios and Vernon Wells respectively), but finished ahead of Torii Hunter (again from the West and again playing for the Angels).

It's deja vu all over again for Alex Gonzalez despite the fact that he split his time between leagues: behind Derek Jeter (Yankees, East) and Alexei Ramirez (White Sox, Central), but ahead of Cliff Pennington (A's, West). Aaron Hill somehow finished ahead of Orlando Hudson in swp (but behind Robinson Cano and Howard Kendrick), despite failing to crack even a single WAR. Much better choices would be Chone Figgins (1,364 swp / 2.0 WAR) or even the injury-shortened season of Ian Kinsler (1,351 swp / 2.7 WAR).

Alex Rodriguez of the Yankees was the third best third baseman, but like first base, he is out of five players of his position represented. Strange piece of trivia: all three of the AL's top third basemen came from the East: Evan Longoria from the Rays, Adrian Beltre from the Red Sox (East's DH), then A-Rod. Michael Young (who may be moving to DH to make room for aforementioned Beltre when the Rangers sign him), and Jhonny Peralta fell far short.

David Ortiz was one of two full-time DH's represented - the other being Vladimir Guerrero, an erstwhile right fielder. What's the difference between these two? The Red Sox picked up Ortiz's option whereas the Rangers declined Guerrero's. He remains unsigned at the date of this writing.

Starting pitchers are a little easier to rank because there aren't any positions to deal with; it's just straight stats right down the line. The top three Wild Card starters come from the West: Gio Gonzalez (A's), Colby Lewis (Rangers, late of Japan), and Ervin Santana (Angels). Gio would be the #2 starter for the Central and the #5 starter in the East - the only Wild Card starter to crack a spot in the Eastern rotation. Any of the next three (starter #4 is Toronto's Ricky Romero, representing the East) could pitch #5 for the Central team. The Wild Card's #5 starter, Matt Garza, is the lowest scoring pitcher to make it into one of these Divisional rotations.

Mariano Rivera's age seems to have finally caught up to him, as he only pitched well enough to be a True Wild Card candidate. Rafael Soriano (Rays), Joakim Soria (Royals), and Rookie of the Year Neftali Feliz (Rangers) surpassed the great Mo. He narrowly surpassed Jonathan Papelbon, who had a rotten year by his standards. We'll have to wait and see if he can regain extra-human status next season.

Oh boy relief pitchers. I wanted to do a study on them specifically, but that's going to have to wait until after the imminent announcement of who gets into the class of 2011 of the Baseball Hall of Fame. Is it wrong that I'm more excited about these ultimately meaningless announcements than I am about the entire Football/Basketball seasons combined?