Thursday, October 24, 2019

All-Decade 2010-19 - World Series Edition

A couple months ago, I outlined the parameters of my "All-Decade Teams" project. At the time, I only had one full decade's worth of stats to work with (2000 thru 2009 - yes, I'm starting the decade at 00 and not 01, deal with it), but since then, with the conclusion of the 2019 regular season, I've been able to start creating a new database for decade #2. In honor of the World Series off-day, I'm going to take a brief look at the all-decade rosters of the two competing teams. Specifically, I'll be profiling just the players who are both all-decade leaders (according to games played) and currently on the roster. I'm starting with the Nationals, not because they're currently sitting on a 2-games-to-none series lead, but because the Washington franchise sported a better overall record than Houston over the course of the last decade: fourth overall, in fact, at 879-740, good for a .543 winning percentage.


Beginning with the starting rotation, both pitchers who have wins so far in the World Series are members of the Nationals' all-decade starting five. Former first overall draft pick Stephen Strasburg is not only the pitching staff's all-decade leader in games started, he also has the distinction of starting a game for the club in every year of the decade. Game 1 starter Max Scherzer technically slots in as the SP4 (remember, for this project I go strictly by games played), but in terms of pure talent and durability, he has unquestionably served as the team's All-Decade ace, AVERAGING just over 2,711 fantasy points per season since he signed with Washington prior to 2015. On the bullpen side, the current Nationals roster contains no top 5 all-decade relievers, a group headlined by Tyler Clippard (371 appearances) and Drew Storen (355).

While Ryan Zimmerman is technically behind Adam LaRoche by a handful of appearances at first base, it becomes clear why I gave him the starting nod when you look across the diamond (and past all-decade second baseman Danny Espinosa, who is not within the scope of this post). When you add in Zim's games at third base, he actually becomes the most prolific Nationals all-decade position player with 1,015 games total (he narrowly edges the recently departed Bryce Harper, who totaled 978 appearances between the three outfield spots). Another reason I included the second base tally in this excerpt was to remind everyone that Anthony Rendon, the clear all-decade leader at the hot corner, started his career primarily at the keystone, racking up a combined 928 games between the two infield positions. The only other all-decade starter on the WAS World Series roster is currently serving in a bench role: Michael A. Taylor amassed an agonizingly close 419 games in center field (beating Denard Span's 361), and hit a home run last night after coming in as a defensive replacement.


Hopping over to the Astros, the only two all-decade starting pitchers who were with the team in 2019 are not occupying those roles in the World Series, for various reasons. Collin McHugh (who also made 85 appearances out of the bullpen this decade) ended the year on the injured list, presumably for elbow issues that initially placed him there in May. Brad Peacock (add 94 relief appearances for him) has a game "started" on his resume during the postseason, but it was in an "opener" capacity in that pivotal Game 6 of the ALCS. I extended this excerpt to Houston's top 11 all-decade starters so we could see how Game 1 and 2 starters Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander fall in the rankings. On the bullpen side, Will Harris leads all Astros pitchers with 309 all-decade appearances, while Chris Devenski, who made his first 2019 postseason appearance last night, sits in third place with 214 games.


It's kind of crazy that Houston finished this decade with a losing 789 and 831 record (.487) considering that their very impressive offensive core are predominantly all-decade starters. I guess that cluster of 100-loss tanking seasons didn't quite even out with the current streak of 100-win seasons. The overwhelming leader in games here is Jose Altuve, former AL MVP and reigning ALCS MVP. I heard somewhere that he's the only player to appear in every season since the Astros migrated from the NL to the AL, and I have no reason to doubt that (or to double check the numbers). Outfielder George Springer finishes second, when you consider his 258 appearances in center field - his multi-positional status is why his name appears in italics (see also Zimmerman, Rendon, McHugh, and Peacock... although I couldn't tell you why Lance McCullers is underlined up there). Next is Carlos Correa, who impressively put up almost 550 appearances, despite a lengthy injury history. During those injuries, Alex Bregman took over his customary shortstop spot, and adding his 129 games there would vault him past Jake Marisnick... until you add the 104 games that Marisnick played in the outfield corners. Yuli Gurriel would have some more games on his ledger if you consider his handful of times he appeared across the diamond at third, but even without those, he still finished comfortably ahead of Brett Wallace at first (remember him?).


There's a lot more to unpack in this database, which is still far from being finished. But until then, please continue to enjoy the World Series on your local FOX network, for at least the next two nights!

Tuesday, October 15, 2019

MLB One-Page Summaries - ALCS Edition

With the ALCS moments away from its pivotal Game 3 matchup, where one of the Astros or the Yankees will take a series lead in New York, let's look at those two teams' rosters, as I did with the NLCS teams last weekend. As a reminder, these one-page summaries were the very first baseball lists I ever put together, starting with stats from 2000. So with the completion of this year's version, I now have a whopping 20 years' worth of lineups, rotations, and bullpens in the books! But enough about me: here are the two teams vying to represent the American League in the 2019 World Series!



Houston finished 2019 with the best record in baseball, and their unquestioned top offensive performer was primary third baseman Alex Bregman. The Aries infielder could easily steal an AL MVP award from Mike Trout, due to his fully healthy season and defensive versatility - he took over at shortstop while Virgo Carlos Correa was on the injured list for a variety of maladies. Two other Astros put up Bregman-like production on a per-game basis, but didn't approach his full season fantasy point total: primary center fielder George Springer missed a month with a hamstring strain (although he was still Virgo's highest-scoring outfielder), while rookie designated hitter Yordan Alvarez didn't make his MLB debut until June (and he'll miss out on inclusion in the 2019 Cancer Crabs lineup due to the presence of ageless wonder Nelson Cruz at DH). Gemini corner infielder Yuli Gurriel benefitted greatly from MLB's homer-happy environment in 2019, finishing with 58% more HR's than his previous career high. Looking at the points-per-game column, it's clear that both Taurus second baseman Jose Altuve and Correa put up similar production, and would easily have cleared the 2,000-point threshold if not for injuries. In terms of player movement, the only qualified hitter (at least 200 PA) to leave Houston this season was underperforming first baseman Tyler White, who was shipped off to the Dodgers.


If 2019 Cy Young Award voters don't seriously consider splitting the honors between Houston's co-aces Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole, then I'm not sure what the point of the award even is. Verlander just edges out disgraced Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw as the longest-running current Pisces starting pitcher, while Cole's mastery was a big reason Virgo walked away with the Fantasy Astrology championship this year. The Astros picked up yet another ace to serve as their SP3 when they acquired Libra's top pitcher Zack Greinke from the Diamondbacks at the trade deadline. Curiously, Houston's projected fourth starter Wade Miley (who was also the SP4 of the Scorpio Scorpions) was left off the ALCS roster, leaving the team with an all-right-handed pitching mix. Aquarius relief pitcher Roberto Osuna has seemingly put his heinous domestic violence suspension behind him to once again post an elite season as a closer. In the rest of the bullpen, 13 was a lucky number, as three separate relievers averaged that many points per game. Remember that "P" is shorthand for a pitcher with at least five starts, but more games in relief than games started, and Jose Urquidy didn't make the list of primary starters because he didn't log the requisite 10 GS and 60.0 IP - although he did reach the 40 innings necessary for inclusion on the list in general.



The main story of the 2019 Yankees is how the team somehow managed to record more than 100 wins despite the majority of their roster spending significant time on the injured list. Two player who were not bitten by the injury bug were infielders DJ LeMahieu and Gleyber Torres, neither of whom are listed at their primary positions (as evidenced by the italics in the first column). New York signed the Cancer free agent LeMahieu as a utility infielder, and while he did fill that role, qualifying at first, second, and third bases, they probably didn't expect him to put up a career year while doing so. Torres spent the majority of his time in 2019 at shortstop (that "SS" should not be italicized over on the right, that was a mistake on my part), but the versatile Sagittarian moved to the keystone when Pisces Didi Gregorius returned from Tommy John surgery. Starters who didn't make NYY's playoff roster include DH Luke Voit (due to a prolonged slump) and left fielder Mike Tauchman (calf strain) - they were replaced by Edwin Encarnacion (who arrived in New York via trade) and Giancarlo Stanton (who played only 18 games in 2019 due primarily to a knee injury - and who's out once again with a balky quad).


Injuries also affected the Yankee pitching staff, as the ace from 2017-18 Luis Severino missed nearly the entire year with rotator cuff and lat issues. However, the Pisces hurler will be back to pitch this afternoon. In a shocking non-injury-related twist for this team, Leo Domingo German will not be eligible to participate in the playoffs due to a suspension for apparently slapping his girlfriend... in view of an MLB official at an event. Meanwhile, Scorpio Masahiro Tanaka (who's at the top of the list since it's arranged by innings pitched) has turned in a masterful postseason so far, while retiring veteran Cancer lefty CC Sabathia will work out of the bullpen for the last few outs of his career. New York''s bullpen has been a clear strength behind another Pisces Aroldis Chapman, but the two leaders in bullpen innings got there as either long relievers of "follow pitchers," i.e. those who enter in relief of an "opener," who in the Yankees' case was pretty much exclusively Chad Green. While we might see Green "open" game 4 (no starters have been announced as of this writing), it seems clear that Ottavino, Britton, and Kahnle will occupy the more traditional setup spots going forward.

Sunday, October 13, 2019

MLB One-Page Summaries - NLCS Edition

I've only published one batch of excerpts from my mammoth spreadsheet tracking Fantasy Astrology Baseball lineups through the last two decades, but it's already time to move onto another type of baseball list. These one-page team summaries were my first attempt at tracking yearly baseball rosters vis-a-vis fantasy points, and although the layout and parameters have changed somewhat since the first time I did this exercise in the year 2000, the basic format remains the same. I finished putting the 2019 list together yesterday, just in time for the Nationals to go up on the Cardinals two games to nothing in the NLCS, so let's start by examining the rosters (i.e. lineup, rotation, and bullpen) of the National League's Wild Card winner.


This is a pretty easy one to start with, because the Nats had one of the more consistent starting lineups throughout the 2019 season. Beginning with the most relevant column - 2019 fantasy points - we see that MVP candidate Anthony Rendon and 20-year-old sophomore Juan Soto led the team offensively, so it makes sense that the Gemini and Scorpio (respectively) hit back-to-back home runs off longtime Dodgers (and Pisces) ace Clayton Kershaw to tie the decisive NL Division Series Game 5 on Thursday. Cancer Crabs shortstop Trea Turner also eclipsed the 2,000-point threshold, and if you look at his points-per-game column (in parentheses), you'll see that he produced at the same rate as Soto when healthy, but he missed time with a broken finger early in the season.

Now to explain some formatting quirks of the list. You might have already deduced that the positions listed to the left of the players' names are their primary positions, and the ones to the right (where applicable) are secondary positions, and you would be right... but ONLY when those secondary positions are in italics. The only example in this lineup is fellow CancerCrab and NLDS Game 5 hero Howie Kendrick, who qualified at both first and second base in 2019. However, when the italicized position is on the left, such as in the case of Virgo benchwarmer Matt Adams, that was NOT the player's primary position, indicating that I futzed with eligibility rules to fill a team's positional need. Indeed, National League teams don't have access to the DH (...yet!) but I list nine players in all 30 starting lineups so as to better compare overall point totals. You may have also deduced that players below the starting nine represent bench depth, but what's not so obvious is that the "^" symbol next to Taurus backup outfielder (and the Baby Shark himself) Gerardo Parra denotes that he was acquired midseason and spent time with another MLB team in 2019.

The 2019 Nationals have a starting rotation with one of the most impressive "Big Threes" in recent memory with Scherzer, Strasburg, and Corbin (a Leo and two Cancers, respectively). Despite his solid-not-great 2019 regular season production, manager Dave Martinez has made the argument to make that "Big Four" after Pisces Anibal Sanchez's stellar performance in Game 1 of the NLCS on Friday. In stark contrast to the starting staff, Washington's bullpen has been much maligned all year, and rightly so, with Libra closer Sean Doolittle and under-the-radar late-May waiver claim Javy Guerra the only relievers to average 10+ points per game. However, this list doesn't feature other more significant midseason acquisitions, such as new closer Daniel Hudson, tilted-cap-wearer Fernando Rodney, and former Mariners closers Roenis Elias and Hunter Strickland, because these four failed to rack up the requisite 40 innings and/or appearances necessary for inclusion on the list. Speaking of rules for inclusion, Austin Voth is down at the bottom, despite an impressive 2019 rookie season, because I require pitchers to rack up at least 10 games started and 60 innings pitched to make it into the list of non-italicized SP's (Voth had 8 GS and 43 2/3 IP). Also, the generic "P" next to Joe Ross's name is my shorthand for a "spot starter" type - a pitcher with more than 5 games started, but more relief appearances than starts (Ross started 9 games out of 27 total appearances).


At first glance, it's clear that St. Louis's offense doesn't feature the same scary performers as Washington's, as longtime Virgo first baseman Paul Goldschmidt needed a red-hot September to barely eclipse 2,000 points (he's AVERAGED 2,322 over the seven years prior to 2019). Scorpio Slugger Marcell Ozuna had a decent platform season heading into free agency, but you can see that he didn't log a full season by comparing his points/PPG columns (like Turner above, he too missed time with a broken finger). Leo shortstop Paul DeJong had a solid and healthy regular season, but he's recently been relegated to the 8th spot in the batting order in the postseason. Batting above him is rookie Taurus utility player Tommy Edman, who despite logging most of his brief MLB time in the infield so far, has gotten the lion's share of starts in right field, while veteran Aries Dexter Fowler moves to center, pushing Gemini defensive stalwart Harrison Bader to the bench (remember the NL does not get the benefit of a DH spot).

Beyond ace Jack Flaherty (who's a Libra), you can't toss a baseball into the Cardinals pitching staff without hitting a Virgo: not only were starters Adam Wainwright, Miles Mikolas, and Dakota Hudson all born between mid-August and mid-September, but the same is true of starter-turned-closer Carlos Martinez, and currently injured once-and-future closer Jordan Hicks. (His line appears in italics because, while he didn't reach the requisite innings/appearances totals, he accounted for over 20% of his team's save opportunities, earning him mention as a part-time closer.) This looks like a sound strategy for Cardinals management, since Virgo did win the fantasy astrology championship this year, after all. Beyond Martinez, Leo reliever Giovanny Gallegos has blossomed into a nice bullpen piece, making the trade of Luke Voit look much less one-sided - the Aquarius slugger isn't even on the Yankees' ALCS roster. Speaking of people left off rosters, John Gant didn't make St. Louis's, despite a solid regular season overall - although I guess he did post a 6.20 ERA in the second half. But with former postseason strikeout machine Andrew Miller and hard-throwing John Brebbia (both Gemini's) on the roster, I'd say STL's late-inning corps looks a bit more impressive than WAS's.

Thursday, October 3, 2019

Astrology All-Decade Teams - First Excerpts

I'll be honest, last night's AL Wild Card Game very nearly sapped all possible interest I may have had in the rest of the baseball season. That A's loss, coupled with the newfound resistance the ownership group is facing in their quest to build a new stadium and keep the team in Oakland might dissolve my interest in the sport for the foreseeable future. But before I drift into the next round of the playoffs, where I'll uncharacteristically be hoping for the Astros to stomp their next opponent, I want to share the first excerpts from an Expansive List I've been working on that encompasses my entire baseball-watching history. This has to do not with the petty, corruptible accomplishments of real world MLB teams, but with a hypothetical fantasy realm, where rosters are constructed based on astrology.

Because when you think about it, dividing players by their astrological signs gives you a much clearer picture of their true level of talent, since there's no way for an astrology general manager to trade a player to a different sign. Of course, the whole concept of astrological signs in themselves is fairly arbitrary, but it's been established pseudoscience for centuries, and there's definitely less noise than having to take into account baseball's complex player development structure, the market factors that drive trades/acquisitions, and how personalities in both the front office or the dugout can affect any given player's standing with a particular team.

Anyway, since 20 years is a long time to think back on without any guidance, I'll start showing you bits and pieces of my list by outlining the most fantasy-relevant player of each team that participated in the Wild Card Games. (Wild Cards Game? Wilds Card Game?)


The first is Washington Nationals ace Max Scherzer, who has also led the Leo Lions for eight of the last nine years, and he'll no doubt return again this year. Keep in mind that the "SP1", "SP2", etc. in the position column are mostly arbitrary, and don't represent the sign's actual #1, #2, etc. ranked pitcher for any given year - they're arranged this way mostly with an eye towards maintaining continuity of the  same pitchers in the same columns for as many years as possible. But in Leo's case, a Bumgarner/Scherzer one/two punch would be pretty enviable to have for most of the decade.


I'm sticking with the National League here, because the losing team's top fantasy hitter has a career that goes back one year even longer than Scherzer, and stretches across two positions. Ryan Braun started his career for the Milwaukee Brewers in 2007 as a Rookie of the Year third baseman, but quickly shifted to the corner outfield, where he continued as a mainstay for the Scorpio Scorpions for eight of the next nine years (meaning he was in the starting lineup for nine out of ten years overall). Although he's now in the twilight of his career - and limited by injuries besides - Braun was still a big part of the Brew Crew's recent run of success.


For the ALWC winning Tampa Bay Rays, would you believe that outfielder Avisail Garcia is the top fantasy performer in Kevin Cash's bootleg lineup? And he only features prominently on the Gemini Twins because their squad has a historically thin outfield mix, and I stretched/completely ignored positional eligibility rules by pretending he's a regular center fielder (that's what the "*" means next to his name... plus most of the other outfielders in this screenshot). That's who the A's lost to: a team full of nobodies! That's who! ARGH why do I even let myself care about a sport that inspires me to feel such RAGE!?!?!


I'm convinced one of the main reasons why the Oakland Athletics lineup wasn't clicking down the stretch was the hip injury suffered by Khris Davis while making an ill-advised start in the outfield during an interleague game. This is yet another argument for the universal DH, a position to which Davis is confined, according to eligibility rules, and common sense, apparently. Fortunately, the Sagittarius Archers had a deep stable of outfielders to take over when "Khrush" was moved to his bat-only role, although he will surely miss the roster this year, after a down season.


Once I finish entering stats from 2019 into this database, I'll have a full 20 years' worth of Fantasy Astrology data to sort through. This includes yearly summaries of each sign's total output, allowing me to track the fortunes of these teams over two decades. It's a lot of tedious data-entry work, but it'll be more interesting than watching what's left of baseball in 2019...