Thursday, July 31, 2014

Hometown Teams Tournament, Round 1, Part 2

After all this Trade Deadline business with players changing teams left and right, it's nice to find comfort in some things that can't change, such as where players were born. That's why when you're done manically refreshing MLB Trade Rumors and you've had a chance to digest all the analysis from Fan Graphs, you should settle in and read about the lineups from the next matchup in my Hometown Teams 2014 All-Star Break Tournament feature! This game features all the best players born in the US state of Texas (ranked 8 out of 10) against the best players born in the country of Venezuela (ranked 9 out of 10).

I was surprised that the Venezuelans clocked in so low in the rankings despite a roster featuring arguably the game's best pure hitter (Miguel Cabrera) and right handed pitcher (Felix Hernandez). Not to mention a red-hot leadoff hitter (Jose Altuve), top 5 closer (Francisco Rodriguez), and a current and former All-Star catchers (Salvador Perez and Victor Martinez, respectively). But a weak outfield and lack of pitching depth kept this World Baseball Classic participant from the top 6 teams who get a bye in the first round of this 10-team double elimination format. Carlos Gonzalez is a powerhouse when healthy, but he's rarely ever been that for a long stretch of his career, and after him the outfield is so thin that Martin Prado had to move from his regular position of 3B (much like how he moved from his previous team earlier today). Likewise, the final two spots in this rotation are filled with primarily long relievers, neither of whom had started more than 4 games by the break. Anibal Sanchez has bounced back in the second quarter of 2014 and Henderson Alvarez has had a surprising season, but you want a little more stability and consistency in tournament style play such as this.


Speaking of consistency, you don't get much better in that department than Texas's best starting pitcher, who also happens to be the best starting pitcher in all of baseball, Clayton Kershaw. If this thought experiment ever became a reality, his game 1 matchup against King Felix would be one of the greatest pitching battles of our generation. Scott Kazmir has been a great story these last couple of seasons, rocketing himself back into relevance after several years on the shelf, and both Josh Beckett and John Lackey are veterans with solid postseason track records. Even though I'm assuming this tournament is taking place during the 2014 All-Star Break (since that's where the stats are from, which is why they're in italics and underlined) I left the two injured members of this team on the roster, because while Beckett has a couple of viable replacement candidates in the rotation (Nate Eovaldi and Homer Bailey come to mind), the best backup option for Gattis is Detroit second stringer Bryan Holaday, and that just didn't seem fair. Speaking of not fair, rookie super utility man Brock Holt slots into the shortstop position, even though he's only played 4 games there all year, because the next viable options were injured Cliff Pennington or minor leaguers Ryan Goins and Omar Quintanilla.


I'm really not sure who would win a matchup between these two teams, as each has a very different array of talents. Perhaps what I'll need to do is plug the rosters into my copy of MLB 14: The Show and see who comes out on top. Until then, I'll continue posting my analysis for the remaining teams, so stay tuned!

Wednesday, July 30, 2014

Hometown Teams 2014, All-Star Break Edition

Now that I've completed the majority of my midseason baseball research and compiled the results into a  sortable database, it's time to start organizing those stats into some virtual rosters. I've spent a lot of time talking about astrology teams these past two seasons and I did a feature on developed teams a few years ago, so the next logical step is to arrange players based on their hometowns. Well, to be fair, it's really based on their places of birth, because that's what's listed on MLB.com, but I'm sure a player's bond to the mystic portal through which he entered the world is strong enough to create some meaningful pattern to these rosters.

Through extensive research and numbers-crunching, I've identified 10 geographical areas that have produced enough players from which to pick a decent roster. First, the major breakdown: of the 1,152 major leaguers that have played before the break (there are actually a few more, but my database is admittedly not all-inclusive), 843 came from the US and 309 came from other countries (including Puerto Rico). The largest contingent from any single territory (to borrow a term from Risk) were the whopping 174 players from California. Must be something about the beaches, the sunshine, and the MLB leading five baseball teams that makes Californians flock to the diamond. The next highest is that baseball-lovin' island of the Dominican Republic with 121. Pretty impressive that those totals are so close given that the D.R.'s population is about 25% of CA's (as of the 2010 census the numbers were 9.4 million to 37.2 million, respectively).

The only other single territories to field full teams were Texas (95), Venezuela (81) and Florida (79). Four of the other five come from cleverly dividing the rest of the US into time zones: one team for combined Pacific and Mountain (and Hawaii, just 64 players total), one team for Central (140), and two teams for Eastern, divided by the Mason-Dixon line (North: 139, South: 132). The tenth and final team comes from grouping all the non-USA, non-Dominican, non-Venezuelan players together in a truly international milieu made up of 107 players from 18 countries, led by Cuba, Puerto Rico, Canada, Japan and Mexico.

Rather than just blasting all the lineups randomly over time, I've decided to set up a 10-team, double elimination bracket of sorts. And while I have no way to cheaply and easily simulate any results, the organization will make it easier to give some context to my upcoming analysis. I determined ranks by taking the fantasy point totals (as of the All-Star Break) of the top 40 scorers in each team (cuz, you know, 40-man roster), regardless of position. Since 10 team double elimination is kind of weird (but shout out to PrintYourBrackets.com for helping me make sense of it all), only the bottom four teams play in the first round. Below is the full bracket as it appears in round one, followed by the starting lineups for the very first matchup:


Starting from the bottom (now we here - sorry, I couldn't resist a line from a Canadian rapper in a post about hometowns) it makes sense that the team with the fewest players in its pool is ranked lowest. But that doesn't mean that the USA's West Coast team is full of scrubs by any means. The offense is led by Michael Brantley (WA), who is having a career year in Cleveland, Ian Kinsler (AZ), who is making Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski look like a genius for trading naked Prince Fielder for him in the off-season, and Jacoby Ellsbury (OR), who can lend stability to the top of any batting order. And don't forget that Hawaiian Kurt Suzuki was an All-Star this year. Taking the mound for game 1 is one of the most talked-about pitchers this trade deadline, Jon Lester (WA). He's followed by another headline maker in 2014, no-hitter author Tim Lincecum (also from WA). The starting pitching depth falls off a little after that, though, with only Baltimore rookie Kevin Gausman (CO) averaging higher than 30-something points per game. The bullpen is fronted by two pitchers who are kind of on the bubble between excellent setup men and proven closers in Mark Melancon (CO), currently closing for the Pirates, and Tom Wilhelmsen (AZ), who formerly closed for the Mariners. But the most interesting aspect of this lineup might be the wealth of impending free agents: in addition to Lester and Suzuki, four more of their west coast teammates are set to file for free agency after this season. Oh, and the surprising decline of Bryce Harper (NV).


The West will take on the best-of-the-worst Florida, a state known more for retirees than athletes, but that still has some star players on their roster. In fact, the first five players in their projected lineup were 2014 All-Stars, plus the first two starting pitchers in their rotation. Andrew McCutchen is obviously the cream of the crop (his performance is making me regret passing him over for Paul Goldschmidt with pick #3 of my fantasy draft this year), but Josh Donaldson, Dee Gordon, and Anthony Rizzo are all rising stars who have just begun to hit their strides. I did end up drafting ace pitcher Chris Sale for my fantasy team and did not regret it, despite a stay on the DL earlier this season, as he has the third-highest point-per-game average in the game (among pitchers with more than two starts *cough* James Paxton). I will actually be at Dodger Stadium tonight watching Florida's number two starter, as Zack Greinke takes on the Braves. If this team had one weakness it would be the bullpen, and I only say that because it lacks a "proven closer" who has been closing games for more than half a season. And in contrast to the West team, not one player on their roster is slated to become a free agent this year (pending options being declined).


Who will win? Tune in next time to find out. AND for analysis the second game in Round 1 as Texas takes on Venezuela! If only we could have seen matchups like that in the World Cup...

Wednesday, July 23, 2014

J.B. Smoove: Fantasy Football Guru

Remember when comedian J.B. Smoove was on Toyota's Legends of Fantasy Football campaign? I don't either, but it happened and here's proof:

http://vimeo.com/51008353




Monday, July 21, 2014

REMEMBER WHEN THE METRODOME COLLAPSED!?!?!?

WELL??? DO YOU??? If not, here's what it looked like:




I am only bringing this up because it's almost fantasy football season, which means it's almost regular football season, which means it's high time to start the debate over which team should relocate to Los Angeles, CUZ IT'S ABOUT TIME FOR US TO HAVE ONE! When the above calamity happened, a lot of people thought it would be the Vikings. Maybe it still will be. WHO CAN KNOW???

Friday, July 11, 2014

Souls of Magic 2015

Those of you who keep track of the big-picture themes in Magic: The Gathering will know that many expansion sets (or blocks) include what are known as "cycles" - a group of cards, usually one for each color on the color wheel, that are tied together by a common theme. The very first cycles showed up in the very first edition of Magic: 1993's Limited Editions Alpha and Beta (which I just learned actually represent two different printings of the same set and collectively are known as First Edition). One famous cycle is comprised of the three-for-one instants: each of these five spells costs one mana of the appropriate color and provides three of something in return (life for white, cards for blue, mana for black, damage for red, and power/toughness increase for green). Some of these cards are still in print (Giant Growth was active as recently as the last core set) while some of them were deemed too powerful almost from the jump (Ancestral Recall wasn't even printed beyond Unlimited Edition, or Second Edition, and is now banned). Another cycle from First Edition are the Moxes: five artifacts with casting cost zero that tap for one mana of the appropriate color. All five of these were deemed too powerful (they essentially allow a player to drop two lands per turn) and were also discontinued before Third Edition (i.e. Revised Edition) came to light.

First Edition's three-for-one (above) and Mox (below) cycles.

There have been many hundreds of cycles great and small throughout Magic's storied history. One that comes to mind is made up of the Blank-less One's from Onslaught - one uncommon Avatar Creature for each color, whose power and toughness are equal to the number of a specified creature subtype in play: Clerics for white, Wizards for blue, Zombies for black, Goblins for red, and Elves for green. (I'll get into the reason why that particular one came to mind later.) Some cycles span across multiple, unrelated expansions: the Invokers, first seen in Legions, are another creature cycle using the same color-specific subtypes as above, but paired with Mutant instead of Avatar, and each with an activated ability costing eight mana to play. Seven years later, in Rise of the Eldrazi, five more Invokers appeared, each also with an 8-CMC activated ability, just with different creature types.

Not all cycles are limited to the one-per-color format. There are numerous 10-card cycles from both sets that took place in Ravnica with each card representing one of the dual-colored Guilds. Each guild has two Guildmages (one from each Ravnica-set block), one Maze Runner (all from Dragon's Maze), any number of guild leaders (depending on who's in charge at the moment) and three mana related Artifacts (each has a Signet, a Keyrune, and a Cluestone). Cycles are not even limited to spells and artifacts, as there are myriad land cycles too, including dual lands, shock lands, slow lands, pain lands, man lands, fetch lands, scry lands... even the basic lands can be considered to be a cycle of sorts. If you're interested in learning more about cycles, the MTG Salvation Wiki entry for each expansion set lists the cycles for each one in great detail.

These five legendary "Maze Runners" starred in their own Intro Packs from Dragon's Maze.
Spoiler Alert: There are five more not pictured.
But the cycle that most recently drew my attention is one from the as yet unreleased Magic 2015 set, which will become the new official Core Set a week from today. (Those of you who can't wait until then can experience the prerelease events tomorrow and Sunday.) Unlike most cycles, this new one consists of six cards: one for each color and one colorless to represent the Artifact contingent. Each card in this cycle is mythic rare, they're each Creatures with the subtype Avatar (remember the "Ones" from Onslaught?), they each have power and toughness 6/6, they each cost six mana, and they each have an activated ability that can be activated once more from the graveyard with the same mechanic as flashback. But the most important thing that these cards have in common are their names, which follow the format "Soul of {Blank}" where {Blank} is the name of a plane that was recently the setting of a Magic expansion block.

For those of you without Vorthosian tendencies, "plane" refers to a setting where a specific storyline in the Magic multiverse takes place. Every expert level expansion set takes place on one or more planes, which function as something between a planet, a star system, and an individual universe (hence the term multiverse). Certain heroes in the multiverse can travel, or 'walk, between these planes (hence Planeswalker), as can every player who has built a Magic deck or opened a booster pack. Thus, for the first time ever, this cycle of Souls in M15 makes specific reference to the settings in Magic's recent history. In descending order from newest to oldest, these planes are Theros, Ravnica, Innistrad, New Phyrexia, Zendikar, and Shandalar. All of these planes but the last also lend their names to the expansion set in which the storyline takes place.

Theros was modeled after the world of Ancient Greek Mythology in top-down fashion. Heroic phalanxes defend their cities from the threat of monstrous Hydras, brutal Minotaurs, enticing Sirens and other creatures of myth, while a pantheon of Gods rules from their realm of Enchantment in the night sky. The Soul of Theros is white-aligned, which, along with the card art, represents the soldier motif. Ravnica, the plane composed entirely of a sprawling cityscape, has been the setting of two expansion blocks, each one built around the 10 above-mentioned dual-colored guilds. When last we left the plane, the previously-dissolved agreement whereby the guilds peacefully coexist was put back into existence by one of those famous Planeswalkers, who not only gets a new card in M15, but is also the namesake for the new font making its debut in this set. That Planeswalker happens to be blue-aligned, so it makes sense that Ravnica's soul is also blue.

Innistrad was the first top-down designed plane in the multiverse, this one based on the 19th Century gothic horror genre. Vampires, Werewolves and Zombies beset the terrified villagers while beautiful Angels fight to stem the tide of Demons and Devils. As befits the horror motif, the Soul of Innistrad is black-aligned. New Phyrexia was once known as Mirrodin, the purely metal plane that was besieged and subsequently dominated by one of the multiverse's oldest antagonists. Having been thwarted by Urza and the Coalition on Dominaria, the Phyrexians turned their attention to Mirrodin, corrupting the Artifact-haven right down to its core. It should be obvious what color (or lack thereof) New Phyrexia's soul is. Then we have Zendikar, one of my absolute favorite expansions, and not just because it was the newest set when I first started playing. The world of Zendikar is marked by abundant yet volatile mana (which explains its green-aligned Soul) and the inhabitants of Zendikar are filled with a yearning for adventure - or at least they were until the plane came under threat of annihilation by the kaiju-like Eldrazi.

As I mentioned, these last five Souls are named after previous expansion sets, but that's not the case for Shandalar, the plane with the red Soul. The name Shandalar only appears once in the Magic universe: in the flavor text of the Magic 2013 card Talrand's Invocation, which in turn references the Legendary leader of one of the M13 intro packs. Why does this little-referenced plane get such a high place of honor among the most recent game-defining settings? To answer that question, I'll need to go into the history of MTG's core sets. Through Tenth Edition, the only place you could find new Magic cards was in the expert level expansions, which all took place on a particular plane. The core sets, printed once every two years, consisted only of reprints from past expansions - except, of course, for the first edition, in which all the cards were obviously first printings. Thus in terms of storyline, the core sets were at once tied to every plane and no plane.

This arrangement all changed in 2009 when Wizards abandoned the numbered core sets and started printing one every year. Not only did they change the names to reflect the current year (actually, the year AFTER the current year, like car models), they also started printing new cards in core sets (including Planeswalkers) for the first time. Some of these new cards referenced familiar planes in the multiverse, but some of them introduced us to new never-before-seen locations and characters. The majority of these new additions take place on the plane of Shandalar. To get an idea of some of the main locations on that plane, one only has to look to another cycle from M13: the Rings. Thune, Kalonia, Xathrid, Valkas, and Evos Isle are all Shandalarian locations of great power that lend their names to powerful creatures as well.



So whichever plane to which you choose to 'walk for your next adventures in the Magic: The Gathering multiverse, keep in mind that there were many that came before it and many that will come after it. (The next expansion after M15 is slated to take place on Tarkir, the Dragon-infested homeworld of Planeswalker Sarkhan Vol... but don't even get me started.) All of these planes are inexorably linked, not only through the marketing campaigns of Wizards of the Coast, but through the decks that Magic players build, combining creatures and spells from all sorts of different and varied worlds. So instead of just "casting a creature card," take a moment to reflect on the particular plane from whence he/she/it was summoned. Don't just toss your spells into the graveyard after reading and following the rules text; give a little thought to the type of mana that first produced it and the mage who first thought of it. And above all, don't just PLAY the game of Magic; EXPERIENCE the game of Magic. It's what Jimi Hendrix would have wanted...

Tuesday, July 8, 2014

All-Star Game 2014: Depth Chart

I always like having a Cancer birth sign, because I feel like every midsummer I get a special birthday present from MLB in the form of the All-Star Game! Half a season is not a very accurate sample size for judging success, but it's such a darn good MILESTONE for checking in on some of the ever-changing statistics that measure performance. These are the counting stats that - in my estimation - should form the basis for fantasy evaluation. Taking a sounding at the season's traditional halfway point (the All-Star break actually occurs a handful of weeks beyond the season's mathematical halfway point) should give us an idea about which players in the league are excelling or falling below expectations.

The All-Star Game is just one week away, and rosters have been selected by the powers that be, i.e. the fans, the managers of last year's World Series teams, Bud Selig's secret network of spies, etc. I know that contests like the All-Star Game tend to turn into popularity contests, but more often than not, the voters will identify some of the most talented and deserving players in the game. Let's check out a projected depth chart and projected pitching staffs for each league, complete with fantasy stats thru Sunday 7/6, the date the All-Star Rosters were announced.



http://cdn2.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/35200066/450296454.0_standard_730.0.jpgAs you can see, there is a lot of information in these little graphics. Let me point you towards a couple of key areas to make it easier to digest. First of all, looking at pure point totals, the AL comes in first for both categories of player: Mike Trout of the Angels paces all All-Star starting batters pretty comfortably in both PTS and PPG, while Seattle's Felix Hernandez has racked up the most pitching points. The highest points per game honors, however, goes to the NL's likely starter (schedule permitting) Clayton Kershaw, already the author of a no-hitter and the recipient of some pretty high praise from FanGraphs this year. King Felix's ppg average, while impressive, is about on par with both the NL and the AL's second-best pitchers: ERA leader Adam Wainwright and Japanese win-machine Masahiro Tanaka, respectively. Johnny Cueto's new delivery helped him become the NL's highest scoring pitcher, while blast from the past Francisco Rodriguez has the highest point total among relievers.

Comparing the two leagues, we see that the shortstop position has the largest point deficit between position players (at 752, about the value of an All-Star catcher): Troy Tulowitzki might just be the most valuable player in fantasy, given positional scarcity and all, while Derek Jeter was clearly given the nod out of respect for this being his last season rather than any kind of on-field ability. Nothing wrong with that (cf. Cal Ripken Jr. in 2001) as a part of this exhibition game SHOULD be a popularity contest, even if it does count for something. The next biggest deficit comes at 3B (443 between Josh Donaldson and Aramis Ramirez), where both representatives come from the best teams in their respective leagues.

Ramirez will have three teammates joining him in Minnesota from the NL-leading (and neighboring) Milwaukee Brewers: outfielder Carlos Gomez also in the starting lineup, catcher Jonathan Lucroy on the bench (although if we were going by offensive prowess alone, while ignoring defense and notoriety, Lucroy would be the clear starter), and the above-mentioned K-Rod in the bullpen. Donaldson, by contrast, will be playing alongside a whopping FIVE more members of the AL-best Oakland Athletics, which of course, for A's fans, is gonna be a bit cringeworthy, since we'll be watching some of their most important pieces taking the field an extra time. There's plenty that can happen in the next week to change this arrangement, however: 1B/OF Brandon Moss recently injured his ankle and Donaldson was hit by a pitch on the hand last night (although he stayed in the game and drove in a run) and we've already seen two AL players replaced due to injury. But the fact that part-time catcher Derek Norris, reclamation project Scott Kazmir, and first-year closer Sean Doolittle all got honors is a true testament that Boston manager John Farrell really appreciates the team effort that's necessary for the Athletics having such a special season so far. It's a little less surprising that last year's Home Run Derby champion and impressive outfield assist machine Yoenis Cespedes will take part in the festivities, so it also bears less mentioning.

The World Cup will likely still be going on come next Tuesday, July 15th, when these two teams square off at Target Field, the pride of Minneapolis. I will be watching somehow, and I hope that anyone who reads this and also plans to watch will be somewhat enlightened by the information presented herein. And while it might be too much to hope that someone who wasn't planning to watch will change his or her mind based on what I've written here, the dream is always marginally alive. Happy All-Star Week Everyone!