All-Decade 2010-19 - World Series Edition

A couple months ago, I outlined the parameters of my "All-Decade Teams" project. At the time, I only had one full decade's worth of stats to work with (2000 thru 2009 - yes, I'm starting the decade at 00 and not 01, deal with it), but since then, with the conclusion of the 2019 regular season, I've been able to start creating a new database for decade #2. In honor of the World Series off-day, I'm going to take a brief look at the all-decade rosters of the two competing teams. Specifically, I'll be profiling just the players who are both all-decade leaders (according to games played) and currently on the roster. I'm starting with the Nationals, not because they're currently sitting on a 2-games-to-none series lead, but because the Washington franchise sported a better overall record than Houston over the course of the last decade: fourth overall, in fact, at 879-740, good for a .543 winning percentage.

Beginning with the starting rotation, both pitchers who have wins so far in the World Series are members of the Nationals' all-decade starting five. Former first overall draft pick Stephen Strasburg is not only the pitching staff's all-decade leader in games started, he also has the distinction of starting a game for the club in every year of the decade. Game 1 starter Max Scherzer technically slots in as the SP4 (remember, for this project I go strictly by games played), but in terms of pure talent and durability, he has unquestionably served as the team's All-Decade ace, AVERAGING just over 2,711 fantasy points per season since he signed with Washington prior to 2015. On the bullpen side, the current Nationals roster contains no top 5 all-decade relievers, a group headlined by Tyler Clippard (371 appearances) and Drew Storen (355).

While Ryan Zimmerman is technically behind Adam LaRoche by a handful of appearances at first base, it becomes clear why I gave him the starting nod when you look across the diamond (and past all-decade second baseman Danny Espinosa, who is not within the scope of this post). When you add in Zim's games at third base, he actually becomes the most prolific Nationals all-decade position player with 1,015 games total (he narrowly edges the recently departed Bryce Harper, who totaled 978 appearances between the three outfield spots). Another reason I included the second base tally in this excerpt was to remind everyone that Anthony Rendon, the clear all-decade leader at the hot corner, started his career primarily at the keystone, racking up a combined 928 games between the two infield positions. The only other all-decade starter on the WAS World Series roster is currently serving in a bench role: Michael A. Taylor amassed an agonizingly close 419 games in center field (beating Denard Span's 361), and hit a home run last night after coming in as a defensive replacement.

Hopping over to the Astros, the only two all-decade starting pitchers who were with the team in 2019 are not occupying those roles in the World Series, for various reasons. Collin McHugh (who also made 85 appearances out of the bullpen this decade) ended the year on the injured list, presumably for elbow issues that initially placed him there in May. Brad Peacock (add 94 relief appearances for him) has a game "started" on his resume during the postseason, but it was in an "opener" capacity in that pivotal Game 6 of the ALCS. I extended this excerpt to Houston's top 11 all-decade starters so we could see how Game 1 and 2 starters Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander fall in the rankings. On the bullpen side, Will Harris leads all Astros pitchers with 309 all-decade appearances, while Chris Devenski, who made his first 2019 postseason appearance last night, sits in third place with 214 games.

It's kind of crazy that Houston finished this decade with a losing 789 and 831 record (.487) considering that their very impressive offensive core are predominantly all-decade starters. I guess that cluster of 100-loss tanking seasons didn't quite even out with the current streak of 100-win seasons. The overwhelming leader in games here is Jose Altuve, former AL MVP and reigning ALCS MVP. I heard somewhere that he's the only player to appear in every season since the Astros migrated from the NL to the AL, and I have no reason to doubt that (or to double check the numbers). Outfielder George Springer finishes second, when you consider his 258 appearances in center field - his multi-positional status is why his name appears in italics (see also Zimmerman, Rendon, McHugh, and Peacock... although I couldn't tell you why Lance McCullers is underlined up there). Next is Carlos Correa, who impressively put up almost 550 appearances, despite a lengthy injury history. During those injuries, Alex Bregman took over his customary shortstop spot, and adding his 129 games there would vault him past Jake Marisnick... until you add the 104 games that Marisnick played in the outfield corners. Yuli Gurriel would have some more games on his ledger if you consider his handful of times he appeared across the diamond at third, but even without those, he still finished comfortably ahead of Brett Wallace at first (remember him?).


There's a lot more to unpack in this database, which is still far from being finished. But until then, please continue to enjoy the World Series on your local FOX network, for at least the next two nights!

100th Post Spectacular: 2010-11 Off-Season Review

100 Posts, can you believe it? It seems like only yesterday that I started this blog with nothing but a concept and a positive attitude. And now look at it: pretty much the same as when it started, but with slightly more content in the archives. And now, with Spring Training less than a month away and with the last of the big name free agents having found a home, what better way to celebrate getting into triple digits than by kicking off a three-part series overviewing some of the biggest action that took place over the off-season.

The Baseball Off-Season is all about free agents. The market becomes flooded with them immediately after the World Series, and they generally represent the quickest way to add new talent without giving up any existing talent (not counting sacrificing draft picks for Type A or B free agents). But just as important as giving a new home to a player with wanderlust is holding onto your own free agency-eligible players. And although trades can happen at any time during the season, off-season trades have a somewhat different character - they are made with the idea of preparing for the coming season rather than bolstering an already-existing lineup.

So here is the first list:

TOP 10 NEW FREE AGENT SIGNINGS (+1 Extra Bonus Pick!)

Without using baseball-reference.com, could you guess who played the majority of games in left field for the Boston Red Sox in 2010? Now be honest, who here would have said Daniel Nava, the 27-year-old rookie who hadn't seen any major league action before last year? Doesn't sound like a starting corner outfielder on a championship caliber team, does it? Well it wasn't, but boy do they have one lined up for next year - and for six years thereafter. Crawford is one of the fastest players in the game, he's flashed some decent power, and he doesn't embarrass himself in the field.

But for the grace of God, Beltre could have been flashing his awesome glove at the hot corner for the Oakland A's, representing a massive step toward helping their fans forget the injury woes of Eric Chavez - just as Beltre's phenomenal 2010 in Boston helped his supporters forget his woes in Seattle. But instead he signed with the Rangers, a team who already had a perfectly viable third baseman (in Michael Young) AND who failed to re-sign their best starting pitcher.

Lee is the above-mentioned pitcher that the Rangers failed to sign - he was picked up by the Philadelphia Phillies in a surprising move, since many saw his negotiations as a two-horse race between the Rangers and the Yankees. That race has left both runners up clawing at each others' throats, while the winner came away with four staff ace-caliber pitchers (Roy Halladay, Lee, Roy Oswalt, and Cole Hamels). If there was any doubt about the National League team to beat in 2011, I'd like to consider that doubt dispelled.

He hits for more raw power than Crawford and draws more walks, but Werth is all but guaranteed to be nowhere near the 2011 playoffs, seeing as he's locked up with the perpetually basement dwelling Washington Nationals. I know Stephen Strasburg is on the way back from surgery and Bryce Harper is s'posed to be one heck of a hitter, but will Werth and his gargantuan contract still be around when those youngsters are ready to participate at the big league level?

You got to hand it to the Tigers, making a couple of moves to try and stay competitive in what could be a weak AL Central. Experts say that V-Mart will likely spend most of his time as Detroit's DH, although he does have the ability to play both catcher and first base. His value goes down a bit considering his production won't be coming from the game's weakest offensive position, but he might perform better without the physical strain that comes from playing behind the plate.

Soriano put up really impressive numbers as the Rays' closer, yet he will spend 2011 setting up for perhaps the greatest living closer ever in Mariano Rivera. Perhaps the Yankees committed too much cash for such a fungible position, and it seems almost wasteful NOT to have one of last year's most effective closers actually closing out games, but, as I've noted before, relief pitchers play a valuable role in their teams' success, and a deep bullpen never hurt anyone.

Dunn is a one-sided talent, but since he was signed by the White Sox, who already have an All-Star first baseman in Paul Konerko, Dunn won't even have to play the field at all. (He used to be an outfielder, but last year his manager finally gave up on sending him out there, opting instead to plant him at first base.) This is one of those picture-perfect scenarios: big hit, no field player signs with an American League team to finish up his career as a DH. They happen so rarely that it's a situation worth keeping an eye on to see if it actually pans out as planned.

This spot was somewhat of a toss-up between Uribe and Miguel Tejada. Both put up very similar numbers playing shortstop for contending NL West teams, but it was Tejada's poor play at third base for the Orioles during the first half of his season that gave me pause. Uribe is slated to play second base for the Dodgers in 2011 while Tejada should move back to short for the Giants, so Tejada has a higher expected value next season, but I think Uribe has the better chance to succeed.

Matsui will represent not only the best, but the ONLY power bat on a pitching-and-defense oriented Oakland A's roster. He hit decently in 2010, and as long as the A's keep him OUT of the outfield, he should be able to contribute more than he did last year with the Angels (he represented a full 0.4 wins BELOW replacement last year in the field). But perhaps more important than how he performs with the bat is whether "Godzilla" will attract more fans of the Japanese persuasion to attend games at the dilapidated Oakland Coliseum.

It seems like no former closers are being signed to actually be closers this year: lefty reliever Brian Fuentes will be setting up for former Rookie of the Year Andrew Bailey. He excelled in this role with the Twins last year after spending the previous 5.5 years closing for first the Rockies, then the Angels. The A's bullpen should definitely be able to protect leads... if the offense ends up scoring any runs.

I added an extra spot for the O-Dog, and since he's signed for three years, this should be his last appearance on this list for a while (after two straight one-year deals). We'll see if he, along with new double play partner Jason Bartlett, can reinvigorate a San Diego lineup suffering from the loss of franchise player Adrian Gonzalez.

Next Time: A significantly shorter list, comprised of the best Free Agent Re-Signings... STAY TUNED!

Relief Pitchers

Most Baseball games these days last 9 innings. Starting Pitchers during the 2010 MLB season averaged exactly 6.0 innings pitched per start. Closers usually only pitch one inning, and then only in close games where their team has the lead.

So who makes up for the rest of those innings?

You guessed it: Relief Pitchers.

Relief Pitchers inhabit that transitional space between when the starter can simply go no further and either a) the end of the game or b) the Closer is called in to protect a lead. They have no set schedule when they'll pitch. They have no set roles (save for LOOGYs and loosely-categorized "setup men"). As a group, they probably receive the least attention of any "position" in the game. And yet - since Starting Pitchers are showing no indication of becoming more like starting Quarterbacks - they play a necessary part for any team that hopes to be successful.

In 2010, the Year of the Pitcher, three dedicated relievers (Hong-Chih Kuo, Evan Meek, and Matt Thornton) were selected as All-Star reserves by the managers, which to me indicates some interesting recognition for Relief Pitchers qua position rather than just failed starters, or potential Closers who aren't quite good enough to close. Just as the position itself has an element of transience, many relief pitchers find themselves in that role as they're transitioning to or from a more defined role in their careers, which is reflected in the extremely high turnover rate among relievers from year to year. But that doesn't mean that particular pitchers can't excel in that role while they're in it.

Below is a chart of the Relief Pitchers who most excelled (according to swp) in 2010:

Only two dedicated Relievers scored over 20 points per game: Hong-Chih Kuo and Koji Uehara. Both of these guys spent some time as closers in 2010, each recording at least 10 saves, but neither pitched in enough save opportunities to get a CL next to their name. By the numbers: Kuo appeared in 13 of his team's 59 SVOpps (22%) - Uehara appeared in 15/62 (24.2%). As you may recall, my cutoff to qualify someone as a Closer is 25%, so both of these are extremely marginal cases.

As for the other two 1,000 point-scorers who didn't have saves to pad their stats (Tyler Clippard and Matt Belisle each had just one save), you can isolate three similar factors in their performances: innings pitched, earned runs, and strikeouts.

When you jump down to the next three, taking us through the 980s (Rookie Evan Meek, lefty specialist and future closer Matt Thornton, and Clay Hensley, bouncing back after a year off) we see some different trends. There's a wider range in innings and strikeouts, earned runs are still similar, but certain rate stats (namely H/9, HR/9, and BB/9) are almost identical.

But SWP are so variable, since there are many different ways to achieve the same "score" - even among players of the same position - that it's futile to try to find any kind of true correlation. Or rather at least MY efforts have proved futile. Perhaps more astute minds than mine will/would have more success.

So to avoid this pitfall, let's use a more reliable (or at least a more trendy) one-number statistic: Wins Above Replacement. Here's the top Relieves according to WAR:

A lot of the top guys in SWP are still ranked toward the top. But what, for instance, makes Daniel Bard so special that he's worth more "wins" than any of his compatriots while scoring so many fewer "points?" Thornton is within 0.001 points in WHIP. Clippard and Belisle have him way beat in strikeouts and innings. Kuo and Joaquin Benoit have lower ERA.

And what is it about Darren O'Day and Sean Burnett that make them more "valuable" than our 1,000 point powerhouses? What's the secret?

Do they factor in salary to the WAR equation? Seems like that's not totally intuitive or productive.

I suppose there's just too many variables. So many things go into evaluating a player's performance, and it only gets harder with such a nebulous position as Relievers, who basically only have one stat (holds, MAYBE inherited runner scored percentage) to separate them from their other more durable, effective, or specialized pitching colleagues.

But as long as starters continue the trend of not completing every game and closers don't all morph into multiple inning monsters a la Bruce Sutter, we're going to see plenty of action from Relief Pitchers. And until they go away, I will continue to show my appreciation by learning everything I possibly can about them.

AL Wild Card Divisional All-Stars

With this eight-part series drawing to a close, I find myself ready and yet reluctant to let it fade. It's been great to give myself an overview of the best performers of 2010, but on the other hand, my left brain is so swamped with stats and numbers and rankings that it's hard to keep everything straight. I'll attempt to provide a little perspective along with the numbers when I present this "Best of the Rest" Wild Card lineup:

Wow, look at Juan Pierre's swp/WAR ratio: unsightly much? This is probably a perfect storm of one metric drastically overvaluing (probably due to steals being worth 30 swp each) and one metric drastically undervaluing (probably because of the lack of extra base hits, which we all know produce lots of runs). He was the AL's fourth highest scoring left fielder to Delmon Young by just 1 swp, which is funny because the best and second best (by far) left fielders came from the East and West respectively: Carl Crawford of the New Big Contract and Josh Hamilton of the MVP honors.

Like Pierre, John Buck was another "True Wild Card" candidate: fourth place in the league in terms of stats. The Twins' Joe Mauer was obviously the best, the Red Sox's Victor Martinez was next (although he will be playing next season with the Tigers), and then the Angels' Mike Napoli (who actually spent the majority of his time at first base... no one has to know...). Billy Butler was likewise the fourth best first baseman, but his case is slightly different because the four teams actually feature five first basemen: Detroit's Miguel Cabrera is #1, his runner-up, Paul Konerko, serves as the AL Central's DH, the Yankees' Mark Teixeira led his division, and Butler is sandwiched between him and the A's' Daric Barton.

Despite his Wild Card berth, Nick Swisher amassed the third best swp as a right fielder, behind Jose Bautista and Shin-Soo Choo, but just edging out Bobby Abreu in the West. Same circumstances for B.J. Upton, who again fell behind his Central and Eastern center field counterparts (Alex Rios and Vernon Wells respectively), but finished ahead of Torii Hunter (again from the West and again playing for the Angels).

It's deja vu all over again for Alex Gonzalez despite the fact that he split his time between leagues: behind Derek Jeter (Yankees, East) and Alexei Ramirez (White Sox, Central), but ahead of Cliff Pennington (A's, West). Aaron Hill somehow finished ahead of Orlando Hudson in swp (but behind Robinson Cano and Howard Kendrick), despite failing to crack even a single WAR. Much better choices would be Chone Figgins (1,364 swp / 2.0 WAR) or even the injury-shortened season of Ian Kinsler (1,351 swp / 2.7 WAR).

Alex Rodriguez of the Yankees was the third best third baseman, but like first base, he is out of five players of his position represented. Strange piece of trivia: all three of the AL's top third basemen came from the East: Evan Longoria from the Rays, Adrian Beltre from the Red Sox (East's DH), then A-Rod. Michael Young (who may be moving to DH to make room for aforementioned Beltre when the Rangers sign him), and Jhonny Peralta fell far short.

David Ortiz was one of two full-time DH's represented - the other being Vladimir Guerrero, an erstwhile right fielder. What's the difference between these two? The Red Sox picked up Ortiz's option whereas the Rangers declined Guerrero's. He remains unsigned at the date of this writing.

Starting pitchers are a little easier to rank because there aren't any positions to deal with; it's just straight stats right down the line. The top three Wild Card starters come from the West: Gio Gonzalez (A's), Colby Lewis (Rangers, late of Japan), and Ervin Santana (Angels). Gio would be the #2 starter for the Central and the #5 starter in the East - the only Wild Card starter to crack a spot in the Eastern rotation. Any of the next three (starter #4 is Toronto's Ricky Romero, representing the East) could pitch #5 for the Central team. The Wild Card's #5 starter, Matt Garza, is the lowest scoring pitcher to make it into one of these Divisional rotations.

Mariano Rivera's age seems to have finally caught up to him, as he only pitched well enough to be a True Wild Card candidate. Rafael Soriano (Rays), Joakim Soria (Royals), and Rookie of the Year Neftali Feliz (Rangers) surpassed the great Mo. He narrowly surpassed Jonathan Papelbon, who had a rotten year by his standards. We'll have to wait and see if he can regain extra-human status next season.

Oh boy relief pitchers. I wanted to do a study on them specifically, but that's going to have to wait until after the imminent announcement of who gets into the class of 2011 of the Baseball Hall of Fame. Is it wrong that I'm more excited about these ultimately meaningless announcements than I am about the entire Football/Basketball seasons combined?

AL West Divisional All-Stars

Finally, some teams to which we can relate! In the Year of the Pitcher, check out how many A's are present on the offensive end...

Two! Two A's! Ah ah ah!

(That was Count von Count from Sesame Street, by the way...)

Yes, just two, and pretty near the bottom of the lineup, but they are the only two representatives from teams not the Angels or Rangers. Two more A's appear on the team, one starter and one reliever, the latter surrounded by THE ENTIRE TEXAS RANGERS BULLPEN! I mean, seriously, right? I know they went to the World Series, but were their relievers really THAT badass?

As far as holdovers from last year, only a pair of Angels in the Outfield (haha, remember that one?): Bobby Abreu and Torii Hunter. Abreu didn't even have to compete with Ichiro this year and took the right field spot outright. Last year's top two pitchers - Hernandez and Weaver - returned for another go-round, as did three relievers: the '010 Rangers' two Darren O's (although Oliver pitched for the Angels in '09 and O'Day's time was split with the Mets) and Craig Breslow.

Notice how last year's bullpen was dominated by the A's in not quite as dramatic a way that this year's is dominated by the Rangers. Also notice how both teams featured the AL Rookie of the Year in the Closer's spot. Strange how these things match up...

All this talk about the bullpen draws focus away from the sad sad state of the offense in this division. Looking for some oWAR above 4? Josh Hamilton's your man, and no one else. Even Vlad Guerrero, with his impressive swp-measured stats, couldn't crack a measly 3 wins above replacement. The starters make up for it, as you won't find a starter with a WAR below 4.

Only one more team to go after this one. As I near the end of this project, I find it hard to keep track of the scope of it and what it all means. With the AL Wild Card I'll also do some big picture wrapping up in general. I don't know how much all you readers out there in readerland are absorbing of any of this, but it sure was a fun way for me to spend the offseason. Much more productive than agonizing about who's going to sign the next big free agent...

AL Central Divisional All-Stars

With the completion of this list, I will be 3/4 of the way through the Divisional All-Stars project. Starting to get a little burned out on the lists? Me too, kind of. When dealing with so many fantastic players, there becomes less and less to say about each one of them in terms of commentary. For the AL Central, I'd like to focus on repeat honorees, folks who were good enough to make the list two years in a row. But first, the raw numbers:

Right away we can see some of the best hitters to appear in this project followed directly by some of the very worst. Not that guys like Jhonny Peralta are bad athletes - he was just rewarded with a new contract from the Tigers - but put him up next to some of his competition (Evan Longoria, Adrian Beltre, Alex Rodriguez, Michael Young), and it's easy to see that we're dealing with one of the weaker divisions in the sport right now.

As far as holdovers, there's only six: three batters, one starter, and two relievers. At the plate, we have Mauer, Cabrera, and Choo, with the supporting cast around them just as lackluster as this year's bunch, minus the DH spot, of course (last year occupied by Michael Cuddyer, spending most of his playing time in right field). On the mound, Verlander is the starter to appear on last year's team, although Danks did headline last year's AL Wild Card starting staff. The two reliever Matt's (Thornton & Guerrier) showed up on both teams.

A weak offense, the loss of both Zack Greinke and Cliff Lee from the rotation; this AL Central is but a shadow of its former self. Consider the WAR of their starting staff: four 4's and a 3, compared to the AL East's four 5's and a 3. The story of Francisco Liriano's comeback is an inspiring one, but great teams are made by great players, not great stories.

I must admit, I'm a little baffled by what makes a high WAR score. If it were strikeouts, Verlander would be way ahead. Pavano has a big lead in complete games. Danks didn't seem to do anything that special. I don't know what crazy algorithm they've got going, but it escapes me. However they're calculated, they sure make the Royals look smart for locking up Joakim Soria for a multiyear deal - as I hinted at last time, he scored the most WAR of any reliever in the game.

While comparing these teams to one another, I found myself wishing that I had access to some fancy simulation software, where I could plug in all these players and their stats, and "watch" what would happen if they faced off in a fictional Playoff situation. Then I realized that such software does in fact exist - in the form of video games on our most powerful consoles!

I haven't played a baseball game regularly since MVP '05 for the PS2... and by regularly, I mean obsessively. Heck, I'd still be playing it, if the lag created by plugging my older system into my schmancy new HDTV didn't make the game unplayable. Maybe if I gift myself a PS3 for Christmas, I'll consider buying one of the new games, adjusting the rosters, and setting in motion a simulated series. I'd feel like Aristotle's Unmoved Mover as I watched the pixelated teams that I created run and jump and swing and slide all over a computer-generated field.

Wouldn't that be exciting? Now I just have to decide which game throw my support behind: the MLB "The Show" series or the 2K_ series. Any suggestions from baseball gamers out there?

AL East Divisional All-Stars

Alright, time to forget about recent developments like the close of the Winter Meetings, the Golden Globe nominations, and the announcement of Time's Person of the Year, and jump right in to the American League Divisional All-Stars!

Not to always harp on this newfangled swp/WAR ratio I've started calculating, but let's start with our duo of overrated Yankees in the starting lineup. Mark Teixeira struggled to the lowest slash stats since his age 23 rookie season, but somehow put up good enough numbers (mostly through runs and walks - he had the lowest extra base hit percentage of his career) to rack up an impressive amount of points. Derek Jeter didn't necessarily earn his new $51 million contract, putting up an offensive win percentage below .500 for the first time ever since taking over as regular shortstop in 1996. Despite being a totally offensive-minded metric, swp seems to more accurately predict Gold Glove winners than valuable batters - both of the above players were recipients of the defensive award last season.

Now let's take a minute to marvel at Jose Bautista's season. 54 home runs OUT OF NOWHERE. 124 RBI to go with them. .86 BB/K ratio, compared to his career mark of .58. And all this with a .233 batting average on balls in play, which suggests that he was immensely UNlucky in terms of hits/outs this season. A season for the ages, just as next season will undoubtedly be in the running for one of the biggest season-to-season dropoffs of all time...

I lost many nights of sleep trying to determine who should occupy the DH spot: whether it should be the best runner-up out of all the position players or the best player who played the majority of his games as the DH. If there weren't two very good candidates, it would have been much tougher, but David Ortiz (2,017 / 13.9) gave Adrian Beltre a run for his money, especially considering just swp and also that as the DH his defensive prowess means less.

Overall, this team is remarkably economical with their swp. Aside from the two Yankees mentioned before and Carl Crawford - who had a remarkably impressive season, but played in an uncharacteristically deep position - not a single ratio above 500 on the lineup or the starting staff. Speaking of the starting staff, check out the league leaders included in that bunch: Sabathia in wins (21), Lester in K/9 innings (9.7), and Buchholz in adjusted ERA+ (187). The pitcher with the lowest WAR (Shaun Marcum) actually had the highest K/BB ratio of the bunch (3.65) - plus he just came back from a full season of not pitching, so we should cut him some slack.

Look at how much WAR likes setup man Daniel Bard: his 3.3 wins above replacement is the highest among all non-closer relievers. (It's also good for second overall among ALL relievers, tied with Brian Wilson and behind... well, you'll find out next time!) On the other end of the spectrum, look at how little WAR appreciates the unique talent of the swingman: David Hernandez, who started roughly 20% of his games, sits pretty with less than 1 win above replacement. Although we might find that's not the norm next week...

Also, as a point of trivia, check out Koji Uehara's swp/g: 20.1! As (technically) a reliever! He's an example of a fringe reliever: my criteria for distinguishing CL's from RP's is that a Closer must have appeared in at least 25% of his team's save opportunities (SVOpp's). Guess Uehara's percentage: that's right, 24.2%. At least WAR puts him in his place as far as effectiveness goes.

Next Week: AL Central.

NL Wild Card Divisional All-Stars

The Wild Card team features "the best of the rest" - players taken from all three NL divisions who didn't score quite enough points to be included in their division's all-star team. Doesn't mean they're not solid players, one and all. Here's the list:

The first thing I did when analyzing this list was to tally up which players came from which divisions, to see which division had the edge. And guess which one did? Not a single one! 21 players on the roster, 7 from  each of the three NL divisions. What are the odds!? (This is counting Ted Lilly just for the Cubs, since that's where he spent most of his time. Ditto with Dan Haren who actually spent the latter part of his season in the American League.) Pretty uncanny, eh? The East and the Central are pretty split in the batting and pitching, and the West dominates the bullpen.

According to WAR, Brian Wilson was better than the guy who beat him in the NL West, Heath Bell. But the difference in swp is small; I don't know what accounts for the difference of 0.7 WAR. Maybe the beard factors in. Like I said, I don't understand what witchcraft goes into sabermetrics.

Also look at Edward Mujica's swp/WAR ratio. Unbelievable, right? First Gregerson, then Mujica. Suddenly the Padres' stellar bullpen isn't looking so impressive after all...

Working up, check out how Jonathan Sanchez, the Giants' No. 3 starter, headlines this Wild Card All-Star Team. Speaks volumes about the new World Champs, doesn't it?

But the team leader in WAR is NL East third base runner-up Ryan Zimmerman, which puts him in the running for the highest-valued swp in the league. Here's the top 10 ranking:

As you can see, Zimmerman sits at No. 7, good for 4th among position players, and 1st among non-catcher position players. (Catcher swp are notoriously overvalued, because replacement level catchers are such notorious light hitters.) I don't know what caused his points to be valued so highly, but I'll bet it hinges on that high slugging percentage, indicating a high number of extra base hits. If there was a stat stock market, I would envy the visionary who first bought stock in OPS...

Batting behind him in my fictional order, despite his higher swp total, is right fielder Hunter Pence, who sports some of the lowest valued points in the league - second lowest to Mark Reynolds. (I won't put the whole list up here - it's too depressing.) Sure enough, if we look at Pence's stats: low walk total and a SLG well south of .500. Maybe there's a correlation to be found after all.

Once I have all 8 of these teams done, I'll likely calculate an average swp/WAR ratio, and with 8 (teams) x 21 (players) + however many honorable mentions I calculated, I should have a pretty decent sample size of the best players in the game right now to see how the two metrics compare. Hopefully it'll be enlightening. I hate to think that I might be wasting my time with all these lists...

NL West Divisional All-Stars

At the risk of bombarding you, my loyal readers, with too many indecipherable numbers, I've added two columns to the NL West graph. They are the 2010 oWAR (offensive wins above replacement) and the swp/WAR ratio, which is exactly what it sounds like. Remember, a player with a lower ratio's points were valued higher than a player with a higher ratio - lower-ratio'd players got more for their points so to speak. This is all in the effort seeing how my silly method of player evaluation compares with the hottest minds in sabermetrics.

Right away I want to point out an inconsistency in the selection of the outfielders for this team. Andres Torres played primarily center field for the Giants, but he logged significant playing time at each of the outfield positions. Ditto Carlos Gonzalez, except with left field as his main spot. Seeing as we had two star outfielders without a fixed position, I picked the three outfielders with the highest swp and put them wherever they would fit. Had I stuck strictly with positions, Torres would have been left out and Andre Ethier would have taken his place in right. Here's how their two lines compare:

Torres: 1,828 / 2.9 = 630
Ethier: 1,755 / 3.7 = 474

As you can see, Ethier was more valuable in terms of both my newly included columns. (Defensively, it was a different story: 1.6 dWAR for Torres vs. -1.7 for Ethier. Yikes!) But I've thrown my lot in with swp, and that's how the story goes. Plus Torres is a better fit to bat leadoff than flash-in-the-pan Kelly Johnson.

MVP candidate Carlos Gonzalez (or CarGo as the fans have dubbed him) had an incredible season, but he had rather low-valued swp. That might be because power hitting outfielders are relatively easy to come by. See as an example his Rockies teammate shortstop Troy Tulowitzki, who logged the same number of Wins Above Replacement, yet scored measurably fewer swp (due to an injury-shortened season).

But, wait, that logic can't hold, because isn't first base one of the deepest positions in terms of production? Then how come Aubrey Huff and (especially) Adrian Gonzalez had such highly valued swp? Maybe it has something to do with all the walks they drew. Maybe it's all the extra-base hits. Maybe there's just something about this sabermetrics movement that I don't understand.

What I do understand is that Mark Reynolds is way overrated, at least by traditional offensive measures. He's still better than average, but leading the league in strikeouts three years in a row? Makes you wonder if the Orioles front office (the team that just recently acquired Reynolds) has access to the latest evaluating measures.

I also understand that Ubaldo Jimenez was as impressive as Tim Lincecum was disappointing. I don't know if WAR takes into account park effects, but to give up just 10 home runs in high-altitude Coors Field is a feat of absolute mastery. Only two pitchers in the league (Roy Halladay and Adam Wainwright) had higher swp's, but no one could best him in WAR for pitchers. He was a bit wild, with a K/BB ratio dwarfed by Cy Young winner Halladay, but he's only 26 and looks to have several more great seasons ahead of him.

Tim Lincecum's season was a silly one: as you can see he's way down there in swp, whereas he was among the leaders in the last two years (where he won two Cy Youngs). He still piled on the strikeouts this year, leading the league for the third straight year, but I guess he just gave up too many hits and let too many runs score.

Just a word on a couple of over-valued relief pitchers: Heath Bell was one of the best in the game - you generally don't see a reliever with WAR above 3.0 - but seeing as swp highly overvalues the save stats (30 swp per!) it takes him a lot of points to get to one WAR. Conversely, someone like Hong-Chih Kuo, who pitched comparably, but didn't rack up as many prestige stats, has points that more accurately represent his value.

Just for a second, look at Luke Gregerson's swp/WAR ratio. Wow, right? It would take him nearly 1,300 swp to log 1 WAR! Looks like the Padres made the right decision trading him to the Marlins for a young center fielder - get the most you can for him while his traditional stats are over-valued.

NEXT: NL Wild Card

NL Central Divisional All-Stars

Going geographically, the NL Central stars are next:

(Does the center alignment of all the names look strange to you? It usually looks more professional, more "baseball," if the names are aligned left. And maybe if the stats were aligned right...)

Among these players - all of whom are among the best in the NL Central - we can recognize a few players who are among the best in the Game right now.

First of all, the 1B / DH / really just another 1B combination of MVP Joey Votto and MVP-runner-up Albert Pujols. Interestingly enough, you can see that the eventual winner was outscored in swp by the loser - and baseball-reference's version of WAR (wins above replacement, remember those?) agrees: 7.4 for Pujols, 6.9 for Votto. But here's the real kicker: when determining how swp relates to WAR, Pujols and Votto had exactly the same swp/WAR ratio.

Votto: 2,650 / 6.9 = 384
Pujols: 2,843 / 7.4 = 384

Coincidence...? YOU DECIDE!

Matt Holliday may very well turn out to be one of the game's best outfielders, but he doesn't do everything particularly well enough for him to be considered one of the greats. Rickie Weeks had a fantastic season, but he's been inconsistent because of injuries. Andrew McCutchen has the "tools" to become a star, but he's not quite there yet.

On the pitching side, Adam Wainwright has blossomed into an absolute staff ace. Four years since converting from a reliever, he's shown that he has the staying power to lead a competitive rotation. Roy Oswalt pitched like one of the best in the game during his 11 starts for Philadelphia... but he didn't pitch nearly that well for the Astros, or overall. If Chris Carpenter once was one of the best in the game, he's not pitching like it now.

Given what's out there now, Carlos Marmol certainly looks like one of the top 6-8 closers in the game right now. Evan Meek had a deserved All-Star season as a rookie, but we know how volatile the middle relief position can be... or we soon will be.

One more thing of note: a possible catching snub - of defensive whiz Yadier Molina in favor of more offensively-minded Geovany Soto. The race was reasonably close: Soto had 1,157 swp with Molina at 1,058. We all know that swp takes no account of defensive stats... so when comparing swp to WAR, I've used only offensive WAR. Molina, the fan-voted All-Star starter by a landslide, picked up 1.7 defensive WAR in '010. Soto, who struggled mightily last year, but bounced back after slimming down, is sitting pretty at 0.0 - he is exactly a replacement level defensive catcher. But in terms of offense, Soto's 3.2 oWAR blow Molina's 1.4 out of the water.

One has to admit: when factoring WAR into swp, a clear winner emerges. Soto actually had the lowest swp/WAR ratio of anyone on this NL Central team:

Soto: 1,157 / 3.2 = 362
Molina: 1,058 / 1.4 = 756

The next highest is Evan Meek: a middle reliever whose swp isn't inflated by saves:

Meek: 990 / 2.6 = 381

Then come Votto and Pujols with 384. What this means is that swp scored by players with low ratios are somewhat undervalued and points scored by players with high ratios are overvalued. What does that mean, in the big picture? I haven't the slightest idea. Ask me again next off-season.

NL East Divisional All-Stars

Now that these lists are quickly becoming a yearly tradition, I won't repeat last year's full-blown introduction. Suffice it to say, I compile a starting lineup for each division consisting of the best players at each position in that division. Players who were traded or acquired get credited with their full season's worth of statistics, but they count towards the particular division in which they spent the majority of their times (measured in games, plate appearances, or innings pitched).

Now that we've got all the particulars out of the way, let's dive right in with the NL East's Divisional All-Stars.

POS	Name	__SWP__	SWP/G	TM
SS	Hanley Ramirez	2,111	14.9	FLA
CF	Shane Victorino	1,988	13.5	PHI
3B	David Wright	2,156	13.7	NYM
RF	Jayson Werth	2,252	14.4	PHI
2B	Dan Uggla	2,221	13.9	FLA
1B	Adam Dunn	2,061	13.0	WAS
DH	Ryan Howard	1,998	14.0	PHI	1B
C	Brian McCann	1,608	11.2	ATL
LF	Raul Ibanez	1,724	11.1	PHI
SP1	Roy Halladay	2,882	87.3	PHI
SP2	Tim Hudson	2,142	63.0	ATL
SP3	Josh Johnson	2,043	73.0	FLA
SP4	Cole Hamels	1,978	59.9	PHI
SP5	Johan Santana	1,772	61.1	NYM
CL	Billy Wagner	2,217	31.2	ATL
RP1	Tyler Clippard	1,071	13.7	WAS
RP2	Clay Hensley	981	14.4	FLA
RP3	Jonny Venters	894	11.3	ATL
RP4	Ryan Madson	842	15.3	PHI
RP5	Jose Contreras	686	10.2	PHI
P	Hisanori Takahashi	1,337	25.2	NYM

As far as catchers go in the National League, there's really only one name to know: Brian McCann. He's played in the last five All-Star games and picked up four of the last five Silver Slugger awards at his position. Throw in his 2010 All-Star Game MVP award and .429 Division Series average, and he's proving he can perform on the sport's biggest stages.

There was a logjam at first base seeing as Adam Dunn shifted there full time in '10 and thanks to Ryan Howard's ankle sprain, which cost him about half of August. Neither are good defensive first basemen but both hit for massive power, both stand about 6 1/2 feet tall, and both make more than $10,000,000 annually.

Dan Uggla's career year at the plate earned him some minor MVP support, a Silver Slugger award... and a trade to the Braves. He still boots plenty of balls (he led the league in errors as 2B with 28), but the power numbers he puts up at a historically weak position should not be overlooked when determining value. 

David Wright is back! After inexplicably losing his power last year, his home run total is climbing back to his career norm. His OBP is his lowest since becoming a regular, but I guess all those big swings for the fences have an adverse impact on one's ability to reach base consistently. He's apparently not great in the field though - each of our divisional all-star infielders sported negative defensive WAR in 2010 (wins above replacement, possibly more on that in the future).

Hanley Ramirez was the only one of the usual big three East shortstops to show up in '10. Jose Reyes had a slow return from a hamstring tear in '09. Jimmy Rollins missed time with a calf injury. Han Ram's power has been declining a bit and his defense is certainly not improving, but he put up some solid numbers and he's signed through 2015, so he should be making pretty regular appearances on this list.

As it happens, the entire NL East Divisional All-Star Outfield comes from the Philadelphia Phillies. Ibanez, Victorino, Werth. The left field spot likely would have been a lock for the Mets new acquisition Jason Bay had he not lost most of the season to a concussion. Werth continued a trend of awesome seasons, putting him in the position of the year's most prized free agents. Victorino sacrificed some average for power, but with his Gold Glove in '10, he's the only one on this squad who shined in the field.

There's not much  more to say about Roy Halladay. Everyone predicted that he would tear it up upon leaving the sport's toughest division for the weaker league, and he did not disappoint, winning 21 games, completing 9 of them (including one perfecto), and leading the league in strikeout-walk ratio. He was rewarded with his second Cy Young award.

After two injury-abbreviated seasons, Tim Hudson is back with a vengeance at age 34. He kept his ERA down and won a bunch of games using his regular strategy of inducing ground balls and letting his defense do the work. Josh Johnson would have garnered more Cy Young support than he did were his season not ended a month early due to a back strain. He still managed to lead the league with a 2.30 ERA.

A pair of lefties rounds out our rotation: Cole Hamels and Johan Santana. Hamels dispelled doubts following a subpar 2009 season and acted as a very solid number two to Halladay. Word leaked that Santana had been pitching with a torn capsule in his left shoulder for perhaps many years, much to the chagrin of irresponsible Mets management. The fact that he was still able to put up impressive numbers cements his place as one of the greats.

At the end of the bullpen is another injury comeback story, Billy Wagner. An elite closer since 1997 for the Astros, Phillies, and Mets, he missed most of 2009 except for a brief "audition" with the Red Sox. He performed well enough to get a one-year deal with the Braves, and he showed that age 38 was little different from age 28 (well, 27 or 29: Wagner was injured for pretty much his entire age 28 season).

As far as the middle relievers go - the unsung heroes of any baseball team - I don't want to shove them down here at the end of this article. Rather, I'm planning to do some digging into what makes them great and why they represent some of the most volatile positions with one of the highest turnover rates in the sport.

Before then, however, you can expect seven more of these divisional all-star teams. PLEASE ENJOY!

Databases and Withdrawals

Boy, there sure is a wealth of information and emotion that accompanies the end of a baseball season, isn't there? The information: full season statistics for 1,000+ Major League players, just waiting to be studied and organized and analyzed. The emotion: the winners of various prestigious awards, the trades and signings of star players and journeymen alike, the revolutionary discussion to alter MLB's playoff structure after the worst-rated World Series in history. And of course, just the general feeling of letdown and instant nostalgia that seems to instantly hit as soon as the new World Champions wrap up their victory parade.

At the moment, I've been mostly concerning myself with statistics, specifically their study and organization. You might remember my detailed list projects from last year, but for the 2010-11 offseason, I've started another undertaking: a Baseball Database, that includes searchable information in all types of various categories, meaningful and trivial. It's arduous and time consuming, but for me, all sorts of fun. And I hope we can all have some fun with the results, also.

As those projects are underway, I plan for periodic updates in the form of Divisional All-Stars. Then I'll turn my attention to elected All-Stars, award winners. Upon their completion, I additionally have planned a treatise on middle relievers, and a treatise on cleanup hitters.

Then, when I'm clear-headed enough to turn to emotion, I'll do some thinking about the proposed new format for MLB playoffs, which would include an additional Wild Card team per league.

This should put us right in the middle of hot-stove season, but any extensive analysis of trades and new acquisitions will probably be left for the 2011 Season Preview. To this slate, I'd like to add something regarding Top Prospects, but the format remains to be determined.

Oh, the things we do to stave off Baseball-Withdrawal in the Offseason...

The World Series

Wow, it's been nearly a week since the World Series! It all happened so fast, I hardly even noticed. In keeping with my yearlong tradition of not posting a single article on this site during the duration of the actual World Series, I've been keeping quiet this week.

I'll admit, I was pulling for the Rangers. I think they're a cooler team and I generally like the AL over the NL. Plus, go Dodgers, thus boo Giants.

But as I go through the listing process that I do after each season, I'm starting to like the Giants' makeup more and more. I'm happy Lincecum has a ring: he deserves it. The supporting cast around him, maybe not so much... like the Aubrey Huffs, the Juan Uribes, the Nate Schierholtz's. And Buster Posey hasn't even proven his worth in the majors yet, so he's jumped the gun a little. 

Both teams were under-the-radar types, which resulted in the lowest rated world series ever. I was just thankful it wasn't the same two teams from last year. It's always good to see parity in the major leagues. It shows that big budgets can't always buy championships. (By the way, we saw a similar result in the California Gubernatorial race this year.)

Which brings me to another cool part about the off-season: Rewards Season. Soon we'll (probably) see Jason Heyward upset Posey for the Rookie of the Year and other voting results that will prompt all sorts of analysis and pounding-on-tables behavior from our preeminent sports journalists.

Did I say "cool" part of the off-season? I meant "ultimately useless."

Although, I do think All-Star selections and MVP-type awards voting are useful tools for beginners to get involved with the sport. Once you have a good handle on the best players, it's easier to get into the supporting casts around them. In addition to my 2010 baseball list, I'm going to try and use an All-Star approach to learn more about basketball this off-season. It's not technically the subject matter for this blog, but maybe I'll even talk a little about some of my findings.

That's pretty much it. It's been such an emotional letdown after the season ended that I haven't really been able to concentrate on much, at least not analytically. List-season will change all that though. You just get ready for some numbers and some crunching of said numbers...

the giants win the pennant!

The giants win the pennant! The giants win the pennant!

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Postseason Experience

Most everyone agrees that playing in the Postseason constitutes a qualitatively different baseball experience than playing in the regular season. Although the format of the game itself remains the same, it's easy to point out some vastly different circumstances:

- You're playing for one of eight teams in contention rather than one of 30.

- The games are elimination tournament style.

- Every moment of every game is crucial and receives intense media scrutiny.

Given these discrepancies, it's natural to think that success in the postseason requires a different set of attributes than success in the regular season (see the ongoing debate over the existence of Clutch Hitting). And thus it's natural to think that having experience playing in the postseason can help one develop these attributes.


If you accept the above two propositions as true, then it follows logically that a team employing a greater number of players with significant postseason experience should have an advantage over a team that employs a lesser number of such players.


If all the above is true, than the charts provided below - which show the postseason experience (not counting the 2010 DS's) of the players on each remaining playoff team - could potentially tell us something about who might win the two upcoming league championship serieses. If the above is meaningless - well, at least the charts are pretty to look at.

YANKEES
POS	Name	Games	AB/IP	__swp__	swp/g
SS	Derek Jeter	138	559	1,923	13.9
C	Jorge Posada	111	372	958	8.6
3B	Alex Rodriguez	54	199	876	16.2
DH	Lance Berkman	29	106	493	17.0
2B	Robinson Cano	28	106	227	8.1
RF	Nick Swisher	24	71	115	4.8
1B	Mark Teixeira	19	76	202	10.6
LF	Brett Gardner	14	13	7	0.5
CF	Curtis Granderson	13	53	187	14.4
DH	Marcus Thames	8	21	36	4.5
C	Francisco Cervelli	2	1	-2	-1.0
SP	Andy Pettitte	40	249	1,877	46.9
SP	CC Sabathia	10	61.1	398	39.8
SP	A.J. Burnett	5	27.1	122	24.4
SP	Phil Hughes	11	12	74	6.7
CL	Mariano Rivera	88	133.2	3,081	35.0
RP	Kerry Wood	8	36.2	309	38.6
RP	Joba Chamberlain	12	10	88	7.3
RP	David Robertson	5	5.1	114	22.8
RP	Dustin Moseley	1	1	13	13.0

The Yankees obviously dominate the competition here. Jeter and Posada, both members of the Yankees legendary "Core Four" - have what basically amount to a single season's worth of at-bats. Pettitte and Rivera - the other two members of the above-mentioned group - have logged enough innings to make up for about a season-and-a-quarter's worth. All four have performed admirably.


Other standouts include A-Rod (having appeared in playoff series with both Seattle and New York), Lance Berkman (who slugged pretty well during the Astros' World Series appearance in '05), and Cano (who seems to have struggled a bit under the pressure).

As for pitchers, Sabathia carried the Brewers into the playoffs in '08 and was an absolute horse as part of a three-man rotation for the Yankees in '09. If Phil Hughes and Kerry Wood look like they have disproportionate numbers based on their roles, you're right - Hughes appeared last year as a reliever and Wood started for the Cubs during their '03 Steve Bartman-shortened playoff run.

RANGERS
POS	Name	Games	AB/IP	__swp__	swp/g
DH	Vladimir Guerrero	29	112	305	10.5
C	Bengie Molina	29	91	231	8.0
RF	Jeff Francoeur	4	17	40	10.0
SP	Cliff Lee	5	40.1	589	117.8
RP	Darren Oliver	14	26	190	13.6
RP	Dustin Nippert	2	2.1	36	18.0

Oof, not much to say about these guys. We all remember Lee's dominance against the Yankees in last year's World Series, and are interested in seeing if he can repeat the feat in the AL. A fun bit of trivia: Molina and Guerrero played the exact same number of postseason games, both with the Angels, but in different seasons. (However they did overlap in '04 and '05.)

PHILLIES
POS	Name	Games	AB/IP	__swp__	swp/g
SS	Jimmy Rollins	32	134	362	11.3
RF	Jayson Werth	35	123	600	17.1
CF	Shane Victorino	32	119	509	15.9
1B	Ryan Howard	32	118	490	15.3
2B	Chase Utley	32	115	538	16.8
C	Carlos Ruiz	32	99	393	12.3
3B	Placido Polanco	25	81	177	7.1
LF	Raul Ibanez	24	71	204	8.5
3B	Greg Dobbs	16	21	39	2.4
OF	Ben Francisco	11	11	-11	-1.0
SP	Cole Hamels	10	60.2	566	56.6
SP	Roy Oswalt	8	46.2	371	46.4
SP	Joe Blanton	8	34.2	295	36.9
CL	Brad Lidge	32	39.1	908	28.4
RP	Jose Contreras	14	45	362	25.9
RP	Ryan Madson	24	23	283	11.8
RP	J.C. Romero	23	19	170	7.4
RP	Chad Durbin	13	8.2	73	5.6
RP	Antonio Bastardo	2	0.1	3	1.5

 
Talk about solidarity: five of the starting eight have played the exact same number of games, and they all played them together and all in the last two years. A sixth (Werth) played every game with those other five, but he got an additional taste of the tournament in '04 with the Dodgers.

Hamels pitched all his games with the Phillies, Oswalt pitched all his with the Astros, and Blanton made an additional playoff appearance with the A's in addition to the last two years. Contreras started about half his October appearances, including the '05 World Series against Berkman's Astros, which is why his numbers look a little inflated for a setup man.

GIANTS
POS	Name	Games	AB/IP	__swp__	swp/g
SS	Edgar Renteria	55	207	523	9.5
CF	Aaron Rowand	15	57	139	9.3
LF	Pat Burrell	17	55	159	9.4
SS	Juan Uribe	16	54	159	9.9
2B	Mike Fontenot	5	8	3	0.6
(SP)	(Barry Zito)	7	44.1	409	58.4
RP	Guillermo Mota	7	8.1	66	9.4
RP	Jeremy Affeldt	7	5.1	62	8.9
RP	Javier Lopez	8	5	-46	-5.8
RP	Ramon Ramirez	1	0	-35	-35.0

Slim pickings here: Renteria's been around the block (who remembers his hit for the '97 Champion Florida Marlins?), Rowand and Uribe are two more members of those '05 White Sox, and Burrell played all his postseason games with his opponents. One notable exception from their roster is the only starting pitcher who has appeared in the playoffs: Barry Zito. I guess Manager Bruce Bochy is smart enough to realize that he's a different pitcher now than he was then: not only much much richer, but he's also much less effective.