Adam Wainwright's Injury, and what it means for pitchers everywhere

It's official: Adam Wainwright, arguably one of the top 3 pitchers in all of baseball, will be shut down for the entire 2011 season following Tommy John ligament replacement surgery. This is a sad story, no matter what Jonny Gomes may think of it. Nobody likes to see young athletes in the prime of their physical careers cut down due to injury, predictable or otherwise.

A number things come to mind with this news; among them how it affects the Cardinals' chance to win the NL Central, and how that in turn affects Albert Pujols's contract status for next season. For the contemplative among us, it brings up myriad questions about Wainwright himself - how old is he? (29) What's his previous injury history? (One 2 1/2 month stint in 2008.) And what about his development could have caused this flameout after 2 absolutely dominant seasons?

We can shed some light on the last question by referring to an article by Craig Wright found in this year's Hardball Times Annual, which I picked up recently in preparation for the new season. In order to understand this piece, I need to first say a few words about how pitchers are commonly handled and Wright's radical (rational?) theories about how they should be handled.

These days, you hear a lot about pitch counts - i.e. for individual games. The agreed-upon limit for pitches a starting pitcher can throw in any given game is set somewhere around 100. Except in the case of potential no-hitters or shutouts, any pitch beyond the hundredth is carefully monitored, and any mistake can get the pitcher yanked.

Some team executives - most notably Nolan Ryan - have railed against such a strategy, and has encouraged his pitchers (those on the team he owns, the Texas Rangers) to work deeper into games and throw more pitches; just like pitchers did in Ryan's day. (Interestingly enough, starters on Ryan's 2010 Rangers averaged 98 pitches per game, exactly the league average.)

Craig Wright has a novel way of looking at pitch counts for individual games: he thinks that a) a standard, fixed pitch limit for all pitchers regardless of experience or maturity is a potentially harmful practice and b) that determining a pitcher's proper workload requires a detailed examination of not only the pitcher's aggregate work over the entire season, but also knowledge of the pitcher's developmental period.

According to Wright's research, the joints are among the last parts of the human body to develop - the extremely crucial (in life as well as in pitching) elbow and shoulder joints may not reach maturity until age 25. Thus any pitcher younger than 25 is still developing, not only as an athlete, but as a human being. Wright separates the developmental years into three stages: 1) the teenage years, 2) age 20-22, and 3) age 23 and 24.

If a pitcher can get through those crucial developmental stages without putting too much stress on his arm or showing signs of trouble, he will generally be able to enjoy a longer career and rack up more innings than if he was abused as a youngster. If a pitcher is adequately nurtured and brought along slowly enough, increasing his workload at the proper increments, he can build up enough arm strength and stamina to regularly put together 130-140 pitch outings.

In the article, Wright points out how Nolan Ryan, thanks to non-serious injuries and military obligation, was able to put together a picture-perfect developmental profile, allowing him to pitch effectively into his mid-40s. He contrasts Ryan to Bobby Witt, a star prospect whose career fell flat due to an unhealthy workload during the years before his arm was fully mature.

I don't want to repeat the whole article, but the whole theory made so much sense to me, that I vowed to pay extra close attention to pitchers in their developmental years and see which are being used correctly and which are being pushed too far. Expect that to be a common thread in this blog heading into 2011.

Oh, back to Wainwright: looking at his developmental profile, we see something like this:

His move to reliever in his first years in the majors (2005-06) helped limit his innings in his last developmental, although it looks like he missed some significant time in 2004 (my knowledge of minor league injury history is not exactly up to par). Other than that blip, it looks like he had a pretty measured workload for those formative years. Each major league player is different, and sometimes they have issues that their history cannot point out. I don't know what caused Wainwright's injury, although it seems like the Cardinals brass was expecting this to happen. I wish him the best in his recovery - he is one of the best after all.

Top Off-Season Trades

Judging by the news that Michael Young has requested a trade from Texas after being relegated to the DH spot (a roster move that apparently has nothing to do with the request... yeah, I'm sure, just like when one spouse's cheating has nothing to do with the other asking for a divorce...), we might not be done with big trades in the 2010-11 off-season. But with pitchers and catchers about a week from reporting to camp, I feel like it's late enough to give a rundown of the

TOP 10 OFF-SEASON TRADED PLAYERS (+1 Extra Bonus Pick)

The R-Sox fell from contention in 2010, but aim to get right back in it with a couple of big personnel moves between seasons: they signed speed with Crawford and traded for power in Gonzalez. A-Gon was pretty darn good even playing in Petco Park, the most pitcher-friendly stadium in the game, so he should really thrive in the much comfier Fenway Park.

Dan Uggla should bolster the Braves' lineup as only the heaviest-hitting second baseman in the league can. Atlanta struggled to score runs last year, with rookie Jason Heyward and perennial All-Star Brian McCann the team's only big offensive threats. He's sure to boot a few balls hit his way (which I'm sure ground-ball machine Tim Hudson will take some issue with), but he'll more than make up for it at the plate.

Marcum was one of two big pitcher acquisitions by the Brewers this off-season (see below). I guess they're making a push for Prince Fielder's last season before free agency. Marcum's kind of a risk, coming off a good season, but having missed the entire year before. But if his 2010 is any indication of his true ability, he should absolutely thrive in the National League.

It's unclear exactly where Wells will play, since the Angels already have erstwhile defensive whiz Torii Hunter manning the 8 spot... but judging by the latest defensive metrics, a move to left field might not be such a bad thing. Wells returned to form at the plate in 2010 following a 3-season-long power outage, and should help the Angels field a more well-rounded team.

Greinke fell far short of his 2009 Cy Young performance, which is the only reason he's below fellow Brewer acquisition Sean Marcum on this list. He still shows a lot of upside heading into his age 27 season, especially if he can keep his hits and earned runs down, and the move to the National League won't hurt. Now's Greinke's big chance to prove that his breakout season wasn't a fluke - and to partly justify my wasting my third pick on him in last year's fantasy draft.

This is just good baseball economics: the Rays had a surplus of starting pitchers, and they got the most they could for one of their mid-level guys off a career-high in wins, but not much else. He should help a Cubs pitching staff that ranked near the bottom of the league in ERA last season. However, perhaps they shouldn't have given up five top prospects on the basis of an outdated, meaningless statistic.

Former Angel catcher Bengie Molina is out and former Angel catcher Mike Napoli is in... but this one also plays first base to boot. He can back up both Yorvit Torrealba and Mitch Moreland, neither of whom project as above-average full-time major league starters. Napoli's big time power should also be better served by the Ballpark in Arlington than by Angel Stadium in ANAHEIM NOT AT ALL LOS ANGELES.

Davis has it all: speed on the basepaths, speed in the outfield... okay, so maybe he doesn't have it all, but he's good at what he does have: speed, speed, and more speed. If nothing else, he should cover a lot of ground taking over for former franchise player Vernon Wells in Toronto.

Infante is on this list almost solely due to his selection to last year's All-Star team. He has durability, he has versatility, and he can rack up a lot of base hits if given the opportunity. Despite his lack of any apparent baseball skills that lead to immediately scoring or preventing runs, he's pretty much tops on the Marlins' depth chart for second base, third base, and even maybe center field.

Some people might remember Frank Francisco from his one year setting up for C.J. Wilson, some may remember his one year tenure as Texas's closer... I remember him for tossing a chair at a fan in a fabled fight at the Oakland Coliseum. He'll take his aggression north of the border where he'll join a duo of sometime-relievers-sometime-closers at the back end of the Blue Jays bullpen.

Who can tell if Reynolds will cut down on his strikeouts on a new team in a new league with a new manager, but if he can, then the American League East had better watch out. He's got legendary power, but also owns the major league record for most strikeouts in a season ever, and last year he even failed to crack the Mendoza line. He'll have his work cut out for him in a division that includes Evan Longoria, Alex Rodriguez, and Kevin Youkilis.

Top Off-Season Free Agent Resignings

The Baseball Off-Season is not all about big name players changing hands. Sometimes players hit free agency, test the waters, and then decide that they're better off staying put where they played the year before. Here are some such players who chose not to abandon their former employers for the promise of greener pastures.

TOP 5 (+1 Bonus) FREE AGENT RESIGNINGS

Konerko broke out with perhaps his biggest season ever after a couple of years of mediocrity. At age 34, he scored the highest OPS of his career (.977), missed his career highs in average by .001, in homers by 2, and in RBI by 5. His 5.0 WAR eclipsed his previous career mark by 1.5. He made his fourth All-Star team (as a bonus 39th man selection, or whatever, but still). The White Sox rewarded him with a 3-year deal AND a big bat to protect him in the lineup (see #7 of the previous entry).

Huff was by far the biggest bat on a San Francisco team that won the World Series mostly on the strength of pitching - he led the team in homers, RBI, and OPS. He also contributed by manning both corner outfield spots when his team was in need. He'll have at least two more years with the Giants (plus a possible third year with a team option), and with no significant offensive upgrades (despite an offense nicknamed "Torture" by Giants fans, they only managed to add aging shortstop Miguel Tejada and hold on to aging leftfielder Pat Burrell) Huff looks to continue as the team's brightest star at the plate for quite some time.

After being acquired in 2009, Pavano stuck around for a full season with Minnesota and worked wonders. Rejuvenating a career that almost stopped short with the Yankees in 2005, Pavano pitched even better than his breakout 2004 season (which netted him that big contract with New York in the first place), leading the league with both 7 complete games and 2 shutouts. How the 34-year-old managed so many innings and wins with such a (relatively) low strikeout rate (3.16 for every walk) we may never know... but the Twins are banking on him to repeat the feat for two more years.

Any year you can hang onto perhaps the best living relief pitcher has to be considered a winner, even though Rivera, a lifelong Yankee, wasn't likely to sign anywhere else. The Yanks stuck with Rivera's $15 mil per annum price tag for two more years, the same they'd been paying him the previous three. Some may question whether 60 innings a year is worth so much money - and we all know that saves are the most overvalued statistic in all of baseball - but there's also that tangible intimidation factor and the relative assurance of an 8-inning game for those 60 or so games in which he does appear.

Perhaps no one was more useful off the bench last year than Thome was for the Minnesota Twins. They've got him back for a year at age 40, but the only question is where to put him. He got a chance to play last year when first baseman Justin Morneau went down with an injury, but he's back at first base, All-Underrated team member Michael Cuddyer and imminent arbitration case Delmon Young occupy the outfield corners, and Jason "The Future" Kubel is the full-time DH. I don't know if he'll earn his $3 mil as a full-time pinch-hitter, but his '011 salary, as low as it seems, is a full 100% increase from what he was paid in '010, which should give you some idea of his value.

And finally, what list of resignings would be complete without the product of the year's most talked about negotiation period, Captain Derek Sanderson Jeter, Shortstop, Esq.? He only squeaks by on a bonus pick because a) he wasn't really that productive last year, b) he's in his mid-30s and likely won't stay at his customary position for long, and c) I really didn't want to revisit those agonizing few weeks towards the end of 2010 when it looked like Cap'n Jetes might be seen wearing anything other than pinstripes.

So that's pretty much it. A lot more action in the finding-a-new-job market than in keeping-your-old-job. The best honorable mention is the aforementioned Pat Burrell, who isn't even slated to start for the Giants, pending Mark DeRosa's return to relevancy. As you'll see next time, there was much more news in the trade department...