Non-Roster Invitees 2020 - NL East

Jumping across leagues from the last batch of Non-Roster Invitees I profiled, here are some highlights of the non-roster players invited to Spring Training by teams in the National League East division. As a recap, for each team, I'll highlight how many total NRI's will be in big league camp, which of them appeared in the majors in 2019, which were ranked in MLB.com's top 800 fantasy player rankings, and which appeared on MLB.com's Top 100 Prospect list. (All player statuses are current as of February 18, 2020, the first day when full squads were present for workouts for all 30 teams.)


Atlanta Braves
Total NRI: 26
MLB 19: 6
Ranked: 2
Top 100: 3

The back-to-back NL East champion Braves don't have a ton of holes to fill on their roster, but a couple of those holes have the chance to be occupied by non-roster players in big league camp. Starting with the top player ranked by MLB, we have Ian Anderson, a pitching prospect who has yet to make his major league debut. Based on his ranking (#448), he actually projects as Atlanta's fifth starter: their locks at one-thru-four rank between 114 and 233, although the usage of Sean Newcomb (#404), a reliever in 2019, could change that calculus. Another rotation candidate at the polar opposite of his career trajectory to Anderson is 15-year veteran Felix Hernandez (#587), who is trying to recapture his Cy Young award-winning form after finishing out a big contract with Seattle.

Aside from King Felix, some notable players who saw major league time in 2019 are returning Braves Charlie Culberson and Rafael Ortega, veteran utility journeyman Yangervis Solarte, and rave-review-getter Peter O'Brien. Turning our gaze to members of MLB's top 100 prospects, outfielder Drew Waters leads the pack at #26, which is the same amount of career games he has at the Triple-A level (all coming in 2019). The above-mentioned Anderson is next in line at #37 - he also split his 2019 season between Double-A and Triple-A, with about the same ratio as Waters. The ninth overall pick in last year's draft, catcher Shea Langeliers, falls in at #70, even though his professional career consists of 54 games at the Single-A level.

UPDATE: One particular characteristic of minor league deals with invitations to spring training is that they tend to fly under the radar as far as MLB.com's official transaction log is concerned. For example, Atlanta's transaction log currently shows two such signings of 2019 big leaguers: returning Brave Josh Tomlin (on February 12th) and first baseman Yonder Alonso (on February 14th). However, I downloaded a version of that same transaction log on February 18th (my self-professed cutoff date), and those two transactions are nowhere to be found therein. It's an idiosyncrasy that I doubt matters to anyone but the most fastidious roster-obsessed folks like myself, but it occupies a fair amount of my attention every winter/spring.

Miami Marlins
Total NRI: 25
MLB 19: 6
Ranked: 1
Top 100: 1

This is not a stat I'm keeping track of throughout all teams, but a whopping 11 of Miami's 25 non-roster invitees were signed to minor league deals from outside the organization (rather than culled from existing minor league depth), showing how seriously the Marlins are about camp battles for roster spots. The only one ranked in MLB's top 800 fantasy players is former MVP candidate Matt Kemp, although his ranking of #754 shows that his chances of being a meaningful contributor are rather low. Other former MLB players include infielder Sean Rodriguez, catcher Ryan Lavarnway, former closer Brad Boxberger, and switch pitcher Pat Venditte. Their one top-100 prospect was another 2019 first round pick (fourth overall), outfielder JJ Bleday (ranked #28).

New York Mets
Total NRI: 23
MLB 19: 11
Ranked: 1
Top 100: 0

Of the teams we've looked at so far, the Mets trail only the Yankees and the Rays in total number of 2020 NRI's, but just under half of them saw action in the big leagues last year. The only one ranked by MLB is first baseman and hopeful outfielder Matt Adams (#613), fresh off a World Series winning 2019 campaign with the Nationals. His chances of making the roster will depend on both his aptitude in the grass and the injury status of one Yoenis Cespedes (ranked #493, but still seemingly not close to game action). Former White Sox outfielder Ryan Cordell, iron gloved infielder Eduardo Nunez (late of the Red Sox), and returning backup catcher candidate Rene Rivera make up the rest of the most notable 2019 major leaguers. While New York NL doesn't have a single NRI ranked within MLB's top 100 prospects, it's interesting to note that former NFL quarterback Tim Tebow is still trying to make the transition from the gridiron to the diamond.

Philadelphia Phillies
Total NRI: 28
MLB 19: 10
Ranked: 4
Top 100: 2

The Phillies NRI's with the top 2020 fantasy rankings from MLB.com are also the two players included in MLB.com's top 100 list. Based solely on the rankings, #34 overall prospect Spencer Howard (#317) projects as the third best starter on Philadelphia's staff (50 to 75 spots in front of rotation candidates Jake Arrieta, Vince Velasquez, and Zach Eflin), despite the fact that Howard has not pitched above Double-A. Likewise, #30 overall prospect Alec Bohm (#414) is ranked as the top third base option in the organization - assuming Scott Kingery (#206) beats out Adam Haseley (#556) for the center field job. Of course, that's not taking into account veterans Neil Walker (#733), Josh Harrison (#774), Logan Forsythe, Phil Gosselin, and Ronald Torreyes (all unranked), who could factor into the infield picture. Shifting to the bullpen, returning Phillie Blake Parker, starter-turned-lefty specialist Francisco Liriano, journeyman Anthony Swarzak, and bounceback candidates Bud Norris and Drew Storen could all potentially see some high-leverage innings.


Washington Nationals
Total NRI: 22
MLB 19: 7
Ranked: 1
Top 100: 1

The reigning world champions were the last team to publicly announce their non-roster invitees, publishing the list on February 12th, but there are a few notable names among them. The only one with a rank from MLB.com is backup catcher candidate Welington Castillo (#710), who has already technically been a member of three teams since the 2019 season ended, as the White Sox traded his contract to the Rangers, who then declined his option the next day. However, the Nats also brought in several options to bolster both their outfield mix (Mac Williamson, JB Shuck) and their bullpen (Javy Guerra, David Hernandez, Fernando Abad). Their lone appearance on the top 100 prospects list just barely made it as Luis (V.) Garcia (not to be confused with Luis (A.) Garcia, the established right handed reliever who is in camp with the Rangers) clocked in at #97 according to MLB.com.

Non-Roster Invitees 2020 - AL East

It's finally here! Spring Training games are being broadcast on MLB Network! The long arduous baseball offseason is coming to an end! Which means that it's one of the busiest times of year for those of us who are unhealthily obsessed with baseball rosters: Non-Roster Invitation Season! At around this time every year, each MLB franchise supplements the players on its roster with a group of non-roster invitees (NRI's), whose goals are either to a) compete for a roster spot, or b) gain valuable experience by being around MLB players and staff for a month before returning to the minor leagues.

Since today's first game on the MLB Network docket features the Yankees and the Blue Jays, I'm starting this analysis with the AL East teams. For each team, I'll highlight how many total NRI's will be in big league camp, which of them appeared in the majors in 2019, which were ranked in MLB.com's top 800 fantasy player rankings, and which appeared on MLB.com's Top 100 Prospect list. (All player statuses are current as of February 18, 2020, the first day when full squads were present for workouts for all 30 teams.)


Baltimore Orioles
Total NRI: 27
MLB 19: 12
Ranked: 1
Top 100: 1

As a team in the middle of a lengthy rebuild, the Orioles are in a position to let plenty of non-roster players compete for significant time in the big leagues this year. However, the only player ranked in MLB.com's top 800 is lefty swing-pitcher Wade LeBlanc (#709), who put up 521 points and 20.0 points per game for the Mariners last year. Seattle declined a team option they held over the pitcher known as "Frenchy," which led to a minor league deal with Baltimore, where he'll compete with rostered players David Hess, Kohl Stewart, and possibly prospects like Dean Kremer (#691), Keegan Akin (#720), and Brandon Bailey (#721) for a spot in the O's rotation. Other players who saw MLB action in 2019 include Tommy Milone (who also saw action in Seattle last year), Stevie Wilkerson (Baltimore's regular center fielder last year, who was outrighted off the roster after the season), and Bryan Holaday (signed out of Miami to compete for the backup catching job). As for the one member of MLB's top 100 prospects, that honor goes to the first overall pick in last year's draft, catcher of the future Adley Rutschman (#4).


Boston Red Sox
Total NRI: 26
MLB 19: 6
Ranked: 0
Top 100: 1

The results of the league's investigation into Boston's alleged sign stealing in 2018 is still pending, the team lost incumbent manager Alex Cora because of his role in Houston's sign stealing scandal from the year prior, their new general manager traded away their best player in a blatant cost-saving move, and there are essentially no players of note in Red Sox camp. Cesar Puello (an outfielder who split his 2019 between Anaheim and Miami) and Marco Hernandez (a former Red Sox infielder who was non-tendered and re-signed) represent the only players who put up more than 40 fantasy points in the majors last year, and none of Boston's NRI's were ranked by MLB. Adding insult to injury, the one member of MLB's top 100 prospects (Jeter Downs, #44) was acquired in the above-mentioned Mookie Betts trade, and is named after Yankees Hall of Fame shortstop Derek Jeter.

UPDATE: I set the cutoff date of this particular analysis as Feb 18, 2020 (the date when full squads for all teams have reported to camp), but minor league deals with NRI's will continue to trickle in for the remainder of Spring Training. One such deal was the Red Sox signing Jonathan Lucroy (ranked #722 by MLB) to compete with Kevin Plawecki (#725) for the backup catcher position. Despite his offensive drop-off in recent years, I'd say Luc has a decent shot of winning the camp battle, not least because Boston's new interim manager Ron Roenicke managed the veteran backstop during his heyday in Milwaukee.


New York Yankees
Total NRI: 21
MLB 19: 9
Ranked: 1
Top 100: 1

According to broadcaster Michael Kay (who, in my opinion, did his best work in All-Star Baseball 2000 for the Nintendo 64), Yankees players missed more than 2,000 player-games due to injuries last year, so they clearly know the importance of organizational depth. That said, the only ranked player among New York's NRI's is Chris Iannetta (#760) who will provide some veteran competition to presumed backup catcher Kyle Higashioka (#734). (That's the same purpose served by fellow veteran backstops Erik Kratz and Josh Thole.) Otherwise, the  majority of MLB veterans in camp are pitchers: David Hale, Luis Avilan, Chad Bettis, Dan Otero, and Tyler Lyons. Their one top 100 prospect is right handed pitcher Clarke Schmidt (#88), who spent the majority of the 2019 season with the class A-advanced Tampa Tarpons.


Tampa Bay Rays
Total NRI: 21
MLB 19: 7
Ranked: 1
Top 100: 0

Speaking of Tampa, the Rays didn't invite a lot of heat to their MLB camp this year, focusing, as many teams do, on the catching position. One of Kevan Smith (ranked #740, late of the Angels) or Chris Herrmann (fresh off a deal with the A's) is a good bet to land the big league backup catching position behind Mike Zunino. Ryan LaMarre saw a handful of games in Minnesota's outfield last year, but Tampa Bay already has a deep group there. The only other real player of note is the 6'10" right-hander Aaron Slegers, who is the second-tallest player invited to a Spring Training camp in 2020 (behind only Giants hurler Sean Hjelle, by a single inch).


Toronto Blue Jays
Total NRI: 24
MLB 19: 9
Ranked: 1
Top 100: 1

The Blue Jays just closed out this first 2020 Spring Training broadcast over the Yankees, despite a rocky ninth inning by Jake Petricka, one of six pitchers who saw MLB action in 2019. However, the one player who was ranked by MLB heading into the season - who is also the same player to appear on the top 100 prospects list - hasn't yet gotten his first call to the show. Based on his ranking, pitching prospect Nate Pearson (ranked #276, and named as the game's #8 prospect) is widely expected to contribute heavily to Toronto's pitching staff: the only pitchers ranked above him on the Blue Jays roster are free agent acquisition Hyun-Jin Ryu (#119) and closer Ken Giles (#129). Does that mean Pearson is likely to beat out the likes of Tanner Roark (#388), Matt Shoemaker (#418), Chase Anderson (#426), or even today's starter Trent Thornton (#518) for an opening day rotation spot? Unlikely, given both service time considerations and the fact that he only has three games above the Double-A level. But keep your eyes on that transaction log as the summer rolls around.

Fantasy Astrology 2018 Spring Training Depth Charts

I know I should be editing the highlight videos for Round 2 of the Divisional All-Stars 2017 Tournament -- check out Round 1 on my YouTube channel, and while you're at it, why not stick around for some Arkham Let's Play action? However, Spring Training games just started for all clubs this past Friday, which is traditionally when I take a "snapshot" of all MLB rosters (and non-roster invitees) and update my proprietary player database. So I spent the weekend plugging in all the new rankings for the upcoming season and generating tons of lists, which got me thinking about another one of my best-loved projects (by me, at least), Fantasy Astrology Baseball.

I'll get back to the Divisional All-Stars soon enough (trust me, I've sunk too much work into the project to abandon it now), but before I do, here's a look back at the four Fantasy Astrology playoff teams from 2017, and how their projected lineups stack up, according to the rankings MLB.com's player preview. Rankings for each team's starters are included in the graphics above the commentary, while rankings for runners-up are referenced in parentheses, where applicable.

Last year, the Aries Rams unseated the four-time champion Libra Scales in the final round, so we'll start with them. The Aries rotation is once again led by Corey Kluber and Chris Sale (who are, incidentally, scheduled to face off against each other in Game 1 of the Divisional All-Stars "ALCS," so stay tuned!), and Carlos Carrasco makes the Rams the only team with three starters in the top 30. Kenta Maeda was relegated to bullpen duty for the Dodgers in the playoffs, but he's pretty well situated to lock down the SP4 spot. For the fifth starter, we have a three-way competition representing three different aspects: Felix Hernandez (track record, and a ranking of 203), Eduardo Rodriguez (upside, 215), and Jake Odorizzi (stability). UPDATE: This may have just become a two-horse race, depending on the severity of King Felix's "upper forearm" injury he sustained when he was hit by a line drive today.) With a full season of save opportunities on the horizon, Brad Hand slots into the top closer's role, pushing Edwin Diaz to number 2. However, even if neither of these two options work out, they've got two more proven closers in the mix: Mark Melancon (191), who's hoping for a bounce back season after injuries ruined his 2017 in San Francisco, and Brad Brach (217), who will once again be filling in for an injured Zach Britton (411) in Baltimore.

On the offensive side, let's start with the known knowns before moving into some notable changes from last year's end-of-season lineup. Aries will bring back Buster Posey behind the plate, Daniel Murphy at the keystone, Nolan Arenado at the hot corner, and its entire starting outfield of Lorenzo Cain, Jay Bruce, and Dexter Fowler. Travis Shaw (200) lost his first base eligibility (a holdover from his 2016 season with the Red Sox), but despite his 30 HR, 100 RBI, 2,000 fantasy point season, MLB.com's rankings strongly prefer a potential return to form by Miguel Cabrera, ranking him exactly 110 spots above (below? in front of?) Shaw. For DH duties, MLB points to 2017 rookie phenom Matt Olson of the A's, who has the edge over such luminaries as Adrian Beltre (142) and Carlos Santana (162). But what makes this team so scary is that Astros third baseman Alex Bregman gained shortstop eligibility, as he spent at least 20 games filling in for the injured Carlos Correa last year, shoring up a position that otherwise would have gone to Adeiny Hechavarria (517).

As I've mentioned before, Libra has won the Fantasy Astrology championship four out of the six times I've run this simulation, and they look to be a powerhouse again this year. Diamondbacks teammates Zack Greinke and Robbie Ray once again sit atop the Scales rotation, with Tampa Bay Ray (at least for now) Chris Archer following closely behind. Lance McCullers Jr. and Alex Cobb (135) are neck and neck in terms of rankings, but until the latter actually signs a contract to play for a team in 2018, I'm more likely to name J.A. Happ or even Tanner Roark (161) as this team's fifth starter. Kenley Jansen and Sean Doolittle figure to reprise their roles as the 1 and 2 bullpen options, but should either of them falter, the next line of defense has some upside: the rankings predict that Jeurys Familia (240) should take back the mantle of Mets closer from last year's trade deadline acquisition AJ Ramos (425), and Brad Ziegler (400) is a good bet to serve as the Marlins' 9th inning specialist, in an effort to keep youngsters Kyle Barraclough (328) and Drew Steckenrider (371) from racking up saves-enhanced arbitration paydays.

Kurt Suzuki and Ryan Zimmerman remain basically the only viable options for catcher and first base, respectively, even though Tyler Flowers (359) is projected to start ahead of Zook, and the ranking system has no love for Zimm's 2,000 point season last year. The rest of the Libra infield represents a changing of the guard of sorts in MLB's young talent landscape: a few years ago, Robinson Cano (83), Evan Longoria (237), and Troy Tulowitzki (373) would be the clear starters, but now that trio has been supplanted by Jonathan Schoop, Jake Lamb, and Xander Bogaerts; although it could be argued that Cano should hold a spot in this lineup as the DH. That role is currently occupied by Andrew McCutchen, the fourth-highest-ranked outfielder on the team, behind top 20 corner outfielders Mookie Betts and Bryce Harper, and projected center fielder Starling Marte. Although, if you consider that Cano and McCutchen's ratings are probably buoyed by their up-the-middle positional eligibility, you could make a case that Yoenis Cespedes (104) deserves some DH consideration as well, but I'm sure a lot of these issues will sort themselves out as spring training camp goes on.

The Virgo starting staff is more reliant on pitchers hoping for bounce back seasons than any other contender. Projected ace Noah Syndergaard had a lost 2017 after tearing his lat muscle (immediately after the Mets told him to take an MRI, which he refused), and David Price battled through his own injuries last year, and was only able to return as a reliever for the Red Sox in the playoffs. Carlos Martinez and Gerrit Cole are good bets to put up strong seasons again, despite the latter moving to the star-studded AL West in the offseason. But if Gio Gonzalez experiences some likely regression, this team could be in for some trouble, as there's not much on hand in the way of pitching depth: after Gio, there's a dropoff of more than 120 points in the rankings, as returning Japanese league standout Miles Mikolas (248) and largely unproven Jakob Junis (252) are next on the depth chart. Although they should get a jolt next year when Cardinals phenom Alex Reyes (450) returns to the starting staff following Tommy John surgery. I'm pretty sure I've made this joke before, but if you put the names of this team's two closers together (Wade Davis and Ken Giles), you get the old timey method of transcribing Mandarin Chinese.

You know your catching situation is in trouble when the best option is the backup to one of the majors' best and most reliable backstops (Aries catcher Buster Posey), but the Maidens roster is so strong everywhere else, they can afford to punt behind the plate. The most notable source of this strength is at first base, where Virgo gets to choose from three of the top 25 players: Paul Goldschmidt, Joey Votto, and Freddie Freeman (22). What's more, if Freeman's 11 game experiment at third base last year had lasted just nine games longer, Virgo could get all three of them in the lineup (with the DH spot), creating a nigh-unstoppable offensive force. That would allow Jose Ramirez to move to second base (where he might not qualify again next year, provided his Indians teammate Jason Kipnis (250, Aries) can stay healthy in 2018), where he would team with Carlos Correa for an All-World double play combo. As it stands now, Dodgers super utility player Chris Taylor would occupy second base, with Ramirez remaining at third... that is unless Mike Moustakas (188) has a dramatic jump in rankings upon signing with a team. If that happens, Taylor would likely not move back to the outfield, which already features Justin Upton, George Springer, and Billy Hamilton, not to mention Brett Gardner (138) waiting in the wings.

If you look at only active major leaguers when determining the starting rotation for the Cancer Decapods (formerly Crabs, but why have a team named after TWO diseases when you could change one of them to something more scientific?), you would have a very top-heavy unit. Stephen Strasburg is one of the top five pitchers in the game, according to the rankings (number five, in fact), but Aaron Sanchez is coming off a season marred by chronic blister problems, and even so, he just barely ranks within the top 150. Michael Wacha proved that he was healthy (if unspectacular) in 2017, whereas Dinelson Lamet doesn't have much of a track record at all, although the ranking system seems to love his upside. All this would seem to set up a fifth starter battle between Marco Estrada (184) and Patrick Corbin (189)... until you factor in the game's number one prospect (according to MLB.com) Shohei Ohtani. I have no idea how to deal with his status as a two-way player in my database (let alone in terms of fantasy sports software -- does he take up two rosters spots?), but the number two spot in this Cancer rotation is his to lose, even if he doesn't take an at-bat for this team. In the bullpen, Felipe Rivero will return as the team's top reliever after taking over as the Pirates closer last year, while Blake Treinen has emerged as the best option behind him, as he's slated to close for the A's.

It's very important for the Decapods to take advantage of Ohtani's rookie season because of some positional logjams that will likely arise in 2019. First the things that won't change: Yadier Molina remains entrenched at catcher (and incidentally, if and when he chooses to hang up his spikes, his heir apparent in St. Louis, prospect Carson Kelly (630), is also on this team). Cody Bellinger will play first, even though he carries left field eligibility, because the next best option to field throws from the infielders is still-unsigned Adam Lind (461). Ian Kinsler and DJ LeMahieu (113) will be engaged in their usual battle at second base, with Josh Harrison (247) likely lagging behind those two. And two outfield spots will surely be filled by Charlie Blackmon, last year's top offensive scorer, and Andrew Benintendi, both of whom qualify for center field eligibility. Projected Rangers DH Shin-Soo Choo, who's coming off a rather underrated offensive year, has to man the other outfield corner, which is where we get into the complications.

As of now, Cancer's top two infielders are shortstop Trea Turner (who I think is pretty seriously over-hyped at #4 overall, but I'll take it) and third baseman Manny Machado, who has expressed an interest in moving back to his original position of... shortstop. If this comes to pass, it won't be a problem for the coming season, as Machado's 3B eligibility will carry over from next year, and even if he does vacate third, Eugenio Suarez (164) will be around to take over. However, the problem with moving Machado to DH lies in the fact that slugger Nelson Cruz just lost his outfield eligibility from 2017, which means that he and his 39 home runs would have to sit on the bench in order to get both Turner and Machado in the lineup. Now, this is thinking way ahead, and one of three things can happen to avoid this mishap: Machado could continue to take enough reps at 3B to keep his eligibility, or the Mariners could abandon their youth-and-defense movement and run Cruz in the outfield with more regularity, or the Nationals could acquire a top shortstop and shift Turner back to center field, where he played during his sophomore season in 2016. But none of these are locks to occur, which is why 2018 is such an important year for the Decapods to capitalize on the weird eligibility vs. capability disconnect that helps make Fantasy Baseball the amazingly complex pastime it is.

Astrology Camp Battles: Leo

Leo is best known for boasting the number one overall ranked player in baseball this year in Mike Trout. But when you look at their top-three starting pitchers, you'll see the aggregate ranks of Max Scherzer (11), Madison Bumgarner (14), and Yu Darvish (41) are better than all teams save Pisces (followed closely by yesterday's profiled team Aries. Of course LEO will always be darkened by the tragic loss of Jose Fernandez from their ranks, but I say the best way to honor his memory is to focus on the game he enjoyed so much!

C
Evan Gattis (164) will likely spend the bulk of his 2017 season as the DH, which will not only allow him to focus on his offense more than the usual backstop, but also keep him healthier than if he had to squat in a crouch for nine innings every night. Speaking of staying healthy, Wilson Ramos (413) could replace Gattis if/when he returns from his torn ACL last year. But even before that happens, Austin Hedges (361) could make a serious impact in San Diego.

RP1 and RP2
The closing situation for Leo is completely up in the air and dependent on many factors other than the talents of those involved. The top ranked reliever on this roster, Carter Capps (326) didn't pitch at all in 2016, and the legality of his pitching motion has recently been called into question, leaving both Padres brass and MLB The Show 2017 programmers scrambling. The most effective closer in 2016 (Santiago Casilla, 462) will likely be setting up in Oakland next year. Brandon Kintzler (386) emerged as the Twins closer last year, but his opportunity to reprise that role will depend on the health of Glen Perkins (PIC, 449). Huston Street (438) could potentially reclaim his spot at the back of the Angels bullpen, even though Cam Bedrosian (LIB, 232) has the inside track. And Drew Storen (448) or Jake McGee (578) could pick up some saves in uncertain bullpen pictures in Cincinnati and Colorado, respectively. Pick any two of those and you should be good.

Astrology Camp Battles: Aries

I always thought there would be a certain poetic justice for baseball players born under the sign which includes the birth dates that usually encompass Opening Day to be especially talented. That has mostly been the case with the Aries fantasy astrology team, which boasts four players in the top 20, and 12 of the top 100, including the top ranked catcher in the MLB, Buster Posey (34), two-time MVP Miguel Cabrera (18), recent Cy Young recipient Corey Kluber (20), and the member of the offseason's most high profile trade Chris Sale (16). Let's see how the middle-back of the Rams roster shapes up this year.

DH (2B or 3B)
This is a straight toss up between Jason Kipnis (68, and 37 spots behind Daniel Murphy on the 2B depth chart) and Adrian Beltre (whose 75 ranking can't compete with Nolan Arenado's 5). Positional scarcity might come into play here: 3B is extremely strong this year, with four of the top ten ranked players at the hot corner. But these two were extremely close in stats last year, with Beltre having the edge by less than 140 total points. Another name to look out for is Carlos Santana, whose 138 ranking can't compete with the above mentioned players, but he could be a factor considering all the skill positions are already filled.

OF2
On paper, two center fielders - Lorenzo Cain (105) and Jackie Bradley Jr. (133) - and Rockies 2016 rookie sensation David Dahl (113) would make up a solid starting outfield for ARE (notice I changed the abbreviation to avoid confusion with ARI, which stands for the Diamondbacks in the real world). But with the latter of those three suffering through some injury troubles, the last corner outfield spot could be a toss-up (or platoon situation?) between lefty Jay Bruce (166) and righty Hunter Pence (176). Also, don't count out Dexter Fowler (192) if you'd rather have an all-CF alignment.

SS
There's not much of a competition here, but it is a good opportunity to discuss fantasy vs. real life. Adeiny Hechavarria is the lowest ranked starting shortstop in the league at 491. Alex Bregman (92) is more than capable of playing shortstop, with 128 minor league games there, against 53 at his 2017 projected position of 3B. But he likely won't gain fantasy eligibility at the position any time soon, due to the presence of Carlos Correa (VIR, 23) also on the Astros roster. I'm just saying, this team would surely benefit if this experiment were a video game simulation, rather than a traditional fantasy league.

SP4 and SP5
On paper, this rotation looks set, with five starting pitchers ranked within the top 130, including the #3 ranked top-three starter combination in the league, with Carlos Carrasco (67) joining Sale and Kluber. But the bottom 40% has some question marks. Kenta Maeda and Matt Harvey are within two ranking spots of each other (125 and 127, respectively), and while each has a tremendous amount of talent and competitiveness, 2017 will be just Maeda's second full season in the majors since coming over from Japan, and of course Harvey just had his second major surgery in the span of three years. If either of them falters, waiting in the wings are formerly elite Felix Hernandez (203 and a Cy Young of his own), potential ace of the Reds Anthony DeSclafani (199), and the solid but unspectacular pair of Jake Odorizzi (154) and Jeremy Hellickson (216).

RP2
This battle isn't even close if you go by the rankings: presumptive Mariners closer Edwin Diaz's rank is more than twice as good as White Sox trade bait David Robertson (72 to 147). But when you consider that Robertson more than doubled Diaz's career saves total in 2016 alone, you have to give the veteran some consideration in a format where traditional roles are concerned. Speaking of traditional roles, Dellin Betances (161), the poster boy for how said roles create a regrettable financial loophole for the establishment, is also in this bullpen, but will likely be sitting on the bench for the majority of the fantasy season.

Astrology Camp Battles: Pisces

An old baseball adage states that pitching wins championships, so it makes sense that Pisces is the only team other than Libra to come away with a fantasy astrology title, given that their top three starters are Clayton Kershaw (7), Justin Verlander (22), and Jake Arrieta (36), making them the only team to have three starters ranked within the top 40 players. However, it's also difficult to win a championship without any offense to speak of (and no, Chris Davis (59) and Jean Segura (58) alone aren't enough to carry a team), which is why the Fish have only won once in the last five years. Let's check out how they shape up for 2017.

DH (C or OF)
It's unusual to see a catcher competing for the DH spot, because a) backstops are usually more prized for their gloves than their bats, and b) the defensive necessities of the position make it rare for even a fantasy team to have two playable ones on the roster. J.T. Realmuto (151) has cemented himself as the starter in Miami, which leaves Brian McCann (218) as the highest ranked player to place second on a positional depth chart, and thus best suited for DH duties on paper. However, given how much positional scarcity might contribute to McCann's relatively high ranking, the Fish might be better off with power threat Jorge Soler (277), former speedster Denard Span (274), or even potential platooner Josh Reddick (311) in this slot.

2B or SS
The above-mentioned Jean Segura's positional versatility basically ensures him one of the middle infield spots, but which one and who takes the other are still somewhat up for debate. The rankings dictate that Segura should man short (where he will line up with the Mariners next year) with Devon Travis (231) at the keystone. But given the young Blue Jays second baseman's propensity for injuries, it could end up being just as effective to put Segura back where he spent most of 2016 with the Diamondbacks and have Didi Gregorius (289) serve as his double play partner. Only time will tell which alignment will prove the most effective.

RP_
RP2

The only relief pitcher who can compete with Aroldis Chapman (51) leaguewide is Kenley Jansen (38), and since he's a Libra, the Cuban Missile has a lock on the top spot here. But since the RP slot in fantasy baseball mirrors the arbitration process in that it's all about saves, for the next spot, we have we have to look at projected role rather than ranking or even talent level. Andrew Triggs (263) is the next highest ranked qualifying "reliever," but since he's ticketed for the A's starting rotation next year, I'm leaving him out of the running here. As far as actual relievers go, Hector Rondon outranks Fernando Rodney by 66 spots (332 to 398), but Rodney is almost assured the D-Backs' closer's role, albeit on a worse team than Rondon's Cubs, but at least he's not stuck behind newly acquired Wade Davis (89, VIR) in the saves pecking order.

Astrology Camp Battles: Virgo

When I first looked at these rankings in the beginning of February, I thought this might be the year that the Virgo Maidens could put it all together and make a run at the title. Circumstances have conspired to make this journey more difficult, so the players who emerge victorious from these camp battles could have a serious impact on the astrology playoff picture in 2017.

SP4 and SP5
I'm starting with pitchers because this rotation looked like a powerhouse around the time of the Super Bowl. Noah Syndergaard (21) is establishing himself firmly atop the pitching pantheon (as well as the Norse pantheon). David Price (44) will be pitching with a chip on his shoulder after a disappointing 2016. Carlos Martinez (82) was deemed valuable enough to recently get an extension from the Cardinals. Gerrit Cole (115) is an ace in the making who hasn't yet lived up to his full potential. And Alex Reyes (226) was just ranked as the number three prospect in all of baseball.

Flash forward one month later and Reyes is on the shelf due to Tommy John surgery and Price had an elbow scare of his own. While the Red Sox's second lefty ace looks to have avoided any major problems, his uncertain status could create an opportunity for some other pitchers lower down on the VIR depth chart. One of Gio Gonzalez (215) or Adam Wainwright (229) is assured Reyes's old spot in the rotation, with the other one able to step in if Price has to miss any time. Price's real life teammate Steven Wright (259) and 2016 postseason non-contributor Jason Hammel (260) are also waiting in the wings as depth options. It's still an impressive group, but the questionable status of some top flight talent could really hurt this team going forward.

1B
I mentioned how a hypothetical two-DH lineup would benefit the Capricorn team in my write up from last week, but Virgo would even more poised to take advantage of this particular fantasy format. Paul Goldschmidt (6) has a stranglehold on the starting 1B gig, but Joey Votto (26) and Freddie Freeman (27) are LITERALLY neck and neck to see who will back him up / play DH. Unless someone really steps up or gets injured in Spring Training, this veritable offensive love triangle will likely continue all season long.

OF2
Ian Desmond is slated as this team's opening day center fielder and George Springer (25) will likely gain CF eligibility pretty soon into the season. Gregory Polanco (61) is the best bet to occupy the third slot, but he was only two ranking spots away from Virgo having three center fielders patrol the outfield grass (Billy Hamilton, 63). If you're more into power hitters than speedy slap hitting types, there's also Justin Upton (79) and Adam Duvall (174) waiting in the wings.

C
One position where Virgo lacks a clear starter is behind the plate, where Nick Hundley (559) lost out on the potential for regular at bats when the Giants signed him to back up Buster Posey (34, ARE), and Christian Bethancourt (496) is firmly behind Austin Hedges (361, LEO) on the San Diego depth chart as he tries to make it as a two-way player. Catcher isn't typically that important in fantasy, so I don't see this as a major drawback for this team's chances.

Astrology Camp Battles: Cancer

I'm always optimistic about my "home sign" team the Cancer Crabs - which shares its names with two human afflictions that range from downright undesirable to potentially fatal. Maybe it would be more positive to call them the Cancer Decapods - look it up! Either way, I think this year CAN might just have the firepower to pull off a deep playoff run. See for yourself:

SS_
SS
Cancer has one of the most interesting shortstop situations in the league, given that top 10 talent Manny Machado qualifies for both SS and 3B. Right now I have Machado at the hot corner so that White Sox prospect Tim Anderson (242) can head up the middle infield, but if we put Machado up the middle, either Yangervis Solarte (248) and Eugenio Suarez (249) are ready to take over at third. However, throwing Trea Turner (12) into that mix, who played CF and 2B last year, but should take over at short for the Nationals in 2017, will quickly put this debate to rest, while also opening up a corner outfield spot for superprospect Andrew Benintendi (116).

2B

This is a pretty cut and dry case as whoever loses the battle between fiery Tigers keystone Ian Kinsler (71) and NL Batting Champ DJ LeMahieu (78) will unquestionably serve as the DH. But I'm mentioning it here because it's rare to see two such talented players at skill positions, which highlights the versatility and flexibility that gives this team the edge. And also it's just fun that these two are so close in rank, 

SP_

SP5
Wei-Yin Chen (249) currently leads the battle for the fifth starter spot between three lefties by 15 and 17 spots in the MLB.com rankings, respectively, and he will be pitching with a chip on his shoulder, following some harsh self-criticism of his 2016 performance. Speaking not of shoulders, but of elbows, Tyler Skaggs (266) will be back for his first full year since a Tommy John surgery, and could make an impact on the Angels. But Jaime Garcia (264) and I share the same birth day and date, so I will always be biased towards including him in my lineups. Add to this group Robert Gsellman (315), a potential SP6 for the expanded Mets rotation, and Michael Wacha (325), who is almost assured a spot in the Cardinals starting five after the unfortunate injury to prospect Alex Reyes (822, VIR), and you have some decent depth indeed.

RP2

As of last month, Jim Johnson (269) and Brandon Maurer (337) would have been locked in a battle to see who would join Seung Hwan Oh (62) in the Decapods bullpen this year. However, since then, the erstwhile Padres closer has dropped nearly 50 spots in the rankings from 291 due to the excitement surrounding the new and even more unorthodox delivery of Carter Capps (326, LEO). His rank hasn't yet been affected by the fact that his "double drag-hop" strategy has just been ruled illegal by MLB, in an effort to prevent people from pitching like Smee from the movie Hook (shout out to FanGraphs commenter whiptydojoe in the above-linked article for the comparison). Who knows whether this rule change will also cause the talented reliever's  effectiveness to drop as well, but if it does, Maurer (no relation to the twins of the same estate) will be there to pick up the pieces.

Astrology Camp Battles: Capricorn

2016's runner up Capricorn Goats is the latest in a series of five separate signs who went up against the four-time League Champion Libra Scales in the finals. With both a Cy Young Award winner and league MVP on their roster, they have the top end to do it again. But will poor versatility be an issue when trying to maximize a one-sided offense? Find out below!

DH2
DH2
Have you ever played in a 2 DH fantasy baseball league? It can be fun to just load up on firepower at the top end, but I never really enjoyed it, because it's never something you'd see on the field in a real baseball game. But if there was a 2 DH Astrology league, it would be pretty sweet to see home run threats Edwin Encarnacion (43), Hanley Ramirez (83), and Albert Pujols (114) hit back to back to back... And especially considering all those Dominican born mashers would hit behind last year's NL MVP Kris Bryant (4). Unfortunately EE and HanRam occupy the only 1B and DH slots, but were there another available, Phat Albert would have some competition from Victor Martinez (184)

SP4 and SP5

With a top three in the rotation in the top 100 players in the game, you're starting from strength. When you consider that number jumps to seven starters in the top 120, and you realize there's bound to be some competition in the back end. I'm almost compelled to go by the numbers here, as former Cy Young winner Dallas Keuchel ranks 101 and recently extended Danny Duffy ranks 102. Consider also that these two aforementioned hurlers are lefties. The two RIGHTIES who stand next in line - Kevin Gausman (117) and Danny Salazar (120) - could both be poised for breakout years in 2017. 

I'm going Duffy and Gausman, on the strength that overall fantasy points total in a given season is the best predictor of future opint totals in future seasons.

Astrology Camp Battles: Libra

I'm modeling this new feature after one in MLB Trade Rumors about competitions for roster spots in spring training. Even though Astrology teams do not have spring training camps, because they are not in fact real teams, the same principle applies with regard to roster construction. And because it's a fantasy league format (12 teams instead of 30), the competitors should be of better quality than a typical major league team. However, because they are uniquely determined, sometimes you get competitors you wouldn't expect.

In any event, these battles could make for some interesting reading, when combined with full disclosure of each team's projected roster, mostly according to MLB.com's rankings, as of Not-My-President's Day. For the scoring, I'm using my archaic yet preferred small world fantasy points. I'm starting with Libra, winners of four out of the five fantasy astrology seasons to date.

Libra doesn't have a single camp battle for a position player. They're just that darn good. They've got two of the top 10 ranked players. Then it jumps to eight of the top 50, and 10 of the top 100. The only thing to say about this lineup is that if we were going by projected 2017 position rather than fantasy eligibility, the team would suffer greatly if Brad Miller (181) ends up ceding the Rays first base job to Logan Morrison (457, VIR), because next on the LIB 1B depth chart is Ryan Zimmerman (545 and trending down).

SP5
Is it just me, or does everyone seem to sleep on Tanner Roark (187)? Back in 2015 when the Nationals signed Max Scherzer (11, LEO), it was Roark who got bumped to the bullpen, despite a season of nearly 200 innings, 15 wins, and a 2.85 ERA? And now, even after an arguably superior 2016 season, he's getting ranked behind Lance McCullers Jr. (173), who only managed 81 innings over 14 starts last year due to injury. I'd pick Roark, who has a track record of solid performance, whereas McCullers has yet to perform over a full season.

RP2
Jeurys Familia (88) is far and away the best candidate to join Kenley Jansen (38) in the LIB bullpen over the course of a full season, but his uncertain status stemming from a domestic violence charge puts the beginning of his season in doubt. Until he comes back, Cam Bedrosian (232) likely has the best track to saves, as I have to imagine that Huston Street (438, LEO) will be on a short leash in Anaheim, whereas Tyler Thornburg (366) and Brad Ziegler (437) are now well down on the reliever pecking order in their new homes.

The Harsh Reality of Fantasy Ranks

Photo from Sporting News, via Twitter

Yesterday afternoon, the baseball community saw something nobody ever wants to see: a pitcher getting struck in the face with a line drive. The pitcher was Aroldis Chapman, star closer for the Cincinnati Reds, and everyone involved in the sport is (or should be) sending their thoughts and prayers to him and his friends/family. Word is that the Cuban fireballer will need facial surgery that will keep him out of action for 6-8 weeks, on top of any concussion-related concerns, and I'm sure he's getting the best medical care Bob Castellini's money can buy.

But what happens next is part of the harsh reality of baseball as a business (and the reason why we have depth charts), since someone has to close for the Reds for the next two months. Manager Bryan Price and GM Walt Jocketty still have a week and a half to make that decision, in which they will evaluate their options, both internal and external (I'm looking at you, Kevin Gregg). But another group of people, somewhat further removed from the game itself and with considerably less at stake in the matter, will be doing their own evaluations of Cincinnati's bullpen prospects. This group of course are the people who compile fantasy baseball rankings.

In my last sounding of MLB.com's rankings (the weekend of 3/15, for my fantasy draft) Chapman ranked 56th overall - fourth among relief pitchers - and was designated by ESPN's fantasy staff as part of the "Cream of the Crop" at his position. Since his freak injury, the once and future closer's stock has fallen by a factor of more than 2, all the way to 117. Interestingly enough, this still makes him Cincinnati's highest-ranked reliever, as 2/3 of a season from Chapman is preferable to a full campaign from any of his prospective replacements. Assuming the Reds stay in-house, the most viable of these options looks to be 2013 rookie J.J. Hoover - acquired from the Braves for Juan Francisco in 2012 - who jumped in the rankings as much as Chapman fell: 55 spots, from 516 to 461. Two of the Reds' other three ranked relievers don't figure to play into the closer competition - Sean Marshall will remain the lefty specialist when he's ready to play regularly, while Sam LeCure will be relegated to middle relief work. But an interesting name to keep in mind is Jonathan Broxton, who recently rose more than 100 spots in the rankings. True it was from 731 to 628, but the big right hander has closed as recently as 2012, and if his surgically repaired right forearm is fully healed, he could be a prime candidate to return to that role.

While the process of transforming projected games missed into lost spots in the rankings may seem dehumanizing, remember that every crisis is also an opportunity. While I'm sure no one in the Reds bullpen has any positive feelings about this unfortunate injury befalling their leader, I'm also sure that one (or more) of them will jump at the chance to excel in his place. So here's hoping that Aroldis Champan's fractures heal quickly, the metal plate they're putting in his head holds steady, and that he doesn't have any residual effects from the minor concussion he sustained. And until that happens, here's hoping that another future star emerges from Cincinnati's relief corps.

Thoughts About AL West Lineups

I've decided to start with the AL West, not because my unabashed favorite team plays there, but because the Non-Roster Invitee dropdown menu starts with three teams from the division. Going in order of last year's standings, here's my projected lineup (with 2013 stats and pre-2014 rankings) for a team I've spent a lot of the off-season thinking about: the Oakland Athletics:

Coco Crisp just signed a decent extension, which at his age might lay the groundwork for him ending his career as an Athletic, which I for one would thrilled to see, given the energy he's provided at the top of their lineup these last four years. I know the prevailing statistical theory is to bat your best hitter in the 2 hole, and last year that was definitely Josh Donaldson, but I'm not so sure some regression towards the mean isn't in his future. Plus, I think Donaldson plays with a lot of emotion, and I think he gets a mental boost out of being the guy in the prototypical power spot. I think it's for the opposite side of that same reason (i.e. keeping the pressure off) that Bob Melvin keeps Yoenis Cespedes out of the cleanup spot. That and the splitting up lefties and righties, and the fact that Brandon Moss is no slouch himself, what with the 30 HR and .337 average last year.

You like to see John Jaso at catcher rather than DH to optimize his bat, but even if you completely disregard positional scarcity, Jaso is a very talented hitter who gets on base prolifically. Also if Tommy Milone indeed fails to make the rotation, having Derek Norris play regularly is the only way to justify the 2011 trade for Gio Gonzalez. I would personally have the offensively minded Alberto Callaspo spend most of the time at 2B with Eric Sogard serving as a frequent defensive replacement, but I have a feeling we're going to see more of a straight platoon.

With Ron Washington's penchant for putting power in the leadoff spot (cf. Ian Kinsler until he was traded this off-season) I don't think there's much chance new acquisition #1 Shin-Soo Choo moves from the top of the order. But however the Rangers organize their 1-5, this is an extremely formidable lineup. Then again, I thought the same thing when it was A-Rod, Rafael Palmeiro, Andres Galarraga, and Ken Caminiti instead of Adrian Beltre, Prince Fielder (new acquisition #2) and Alex Rios. 2001 taught us that you can't win without pitching, and without a healthy Derek Holland and possibly Matt Harrison to start the year, there might be a lot of spot starts for Nick Tepesch and Tommy Hanson. I guess it's not too late for Texas to sign Ervin Santana, but I hope it doesn't come to that...

Where's this year's splashy free agent signing from the Angels? Joe Smith is a very capable bullpen arm and Raul Ibanez might hit the occasional home run, but they're no Josh Hamilton, Albert Pujols, or C.J. Wilson. Maybe Los Angeles (or is it Anaheim?) are taking the smarter, more subtle approach. They certainly are with Mike Trout's placement in the order, assuming he stays at #2 like he did last year. The MLB.com player preview certainly believes Pujols can stay healthy enough to play 1B, which would give relative unknown Kole Calhoun the chance to start in the outfield, since they pegged him with a ridiculously high ranking (in my opinion) for a player with just 247 MLB at-bats. Some people have also made some noise about Calhoun batting leadoff, but he would have to have an incredible spring for Mike Scioscia to trust him with that responsibility.

Seattle has one big new face and two rookies in high positions. Robinson Cano's monster 10-year free agent deal was undoubtedly the roster move news of the winter, but as I asked of the Rangers, do the Mariners have enough pitching to support their $240 million man? James Paxton and Taijuan Walker are two of the biggest names in pitching prospect-dom, and they performed very well in limited action last year. (Plus their buddy Danny Hultzen might join them in at some point in 2015 after he recovers from shoulder surgery.) But with Hisashi Iwakuma facing some injury issues (in addition to the dreaded regression towards the mean) and the built-in uncertainty with rookie pitchers, King Felix might have to rule a kingdom of one. Health is also a question for this team's next two big offensive acquisitions, Cory Hart and Logan Morrison. Both of whom are recovering from knee injuries, and with Franklin Gutierrez out for the year, one of them will be asked to play the outfield regularly.

The Astros have the hardest lineup to figure, but in a sense, they're also the team for which it matters the least. Moving unknowns like Robbie Grossman or spare parts like Jesus Guzman up or down in the batting order won't make the difference between 90 or 100 losses. The upside is that before too long we might see such talented prospects as George Springer (OF) and/or Jonathan Singleton (1B) take over and contribute before long. Going by the rankings on the pitching side, I must be missing something, because MLB has Dallas Keuchel (490, 20.8 ppg last year) ranked way above Jarred Cosart (624, 47.9 ppg and with more upside)... Unless the thing I'm missing is that Houston wants to keep the bigger prospect from hitting early arbitration by letting other folks start meaningless major league games. If so, then I am missing it no longer.


There you have it! Next time I will switch leagues but stay in the same geographical area for the NL West.

Thoughts About Spring Training Starting Tomorrow

It's finally happening. After almost four long months without any baseball, all 30 teams have reported to their Spring Training camps (I'm looking at you, Colorado Rockies, the last team to have to show up) and start playing honest-to-goodness games tomorrow. Well, actually it's just the Yankees and the Tigers taking on a couple of college teams tomorrow, but the NEXT day, teams start playing honest-to-goodness games against each other. And that's a good enough reason for me to finalize my first 40-Man Rosters document of 2014. And in conjunction with this document, I will return to blogging with a series of posts outlining my take on what each team's lineup might look like.

I know that rosters aren't anywhere close to being finalized, as there are still some high-ish profile free agents out there (I'm looking at you, Ervin Santana, Stephen Drew, and Kendrys Morales). But if David Schoenfield at ESPN's SweetSpot blog can conjecture about starting lineups, I see no reason why I shouldn't give it a shot. But before getting into the lineups, I'd like to talk a little bit about the recent trends in fantasy rankings. Not a lot has changed since I first looked at MLB.com's Player Preview (which was, not coincidentally, the day they were released), but the movement of players up and down the hierarchy can tell us a lot about how the season might play out, even in the early going.

Here's a rudimentary chart of the top 30 players to show a statistically significant trend:

As you can see, the highest ranked player on this list - both in his old and new rank - is Matt Kemp, whose gimpy ankle will likely keep him from being ready for opening day in Australia... not that anyone is excited about the trip anyway. Kemp remains the team's #2 ranked outfielder - he was behind Cuban phenom Yasiel Puig either way - and while a change of 8 spots doesn't seem like much, it's a lot more telling when no one else around him changed at all. Depending on his health, Kemp is still a top 50 player, but this recent trend should give potential drafters pause. Cole Hamels, another high profile #2 (pitcher, behind Cliff Lee on the Phillies) dropped some ranks after it was revealed that shoulder troubles will keep him from starting on Opening Day. My prediction is that overall he'll do just fine pitching between Lee and newly acquired A.J. Burnett.

The top player to trend up is Nelson Cruz who just recently agreed to terms with the Orioles (although the deal has yet to be officially announced). My guess is that the gain of more than 20 ranks is due to the assumption that he was going to sign with the Mariners and play his home games at spacious Safeco field rather than the much more forgiving Camden Yards in Baltimore. Cruz's fellow new Oriole Ubaldo Jimenez actually LOST 10 ranks upon ending his 2014 Free Agency. I don't know if that also had anything to do with the park factors of his projected location vs. his actual location, but it seems curious nonetheless. Staying with Baltimore, projected closer Tommy Hunter got a bump of more than 40 ranks, presumably because the pundits believe that he'll have more opportunities to save games with a Cruz-enhanced offense.

I mentioned Seattle earlier as being linked to Nelson Cruz, and it seems like his signing elsewhere has affected the makeup of Seattle's outfield - that and the announcement that Franklin Gutierrez will sit out all of 2014 to nurse an ailing stomach. The two most likely candidates to take over center field, Dustin Ackley and Michael Saunders, both jumped nearly 30 ranks, although corner outfield/DH candidate Corey Hart dropped more than double that as his surgically repaired knee is still giving him some trouble. Barring a re-signing of Morales, look for Justin Smoak to start the season at 1B with Logan Morrison doing most of the DHing.

On the pitching side, Seattle's new closer Fernando Rodney jumped 20 spots in the rankings upon his signing, which pushed potential incumbent Danny Farquhar down a staggering 285 spots from 244 to 529, the largest difference not counting players who will miss all of 2014 due to injury (Cory Luebke) or voluntary choice (Ryan Dempster). Meanwhile, Seattle's top 2013 point scorer Hisashi Iwakuma lost nearly 50 ranks due to a finger issue. I personally think his new spot more accurately represents his value, as one terrific season shouldn't be enough to place anyone in the top 100.

It looks like there might be a battle for the closer's role in Arizona this year, based on the dramatic slide in rank of trade acquisition Addison Reed (who cost the Diamondbacks the 2013 Futures Game MVP Matt Davidson (-126 ranks), who is himself losing significant ground to Conor Gillaspie (+151) in the battle for the White Sox 3B job... but I digress). Reed's loss of 59 ranks coincides with J.J. Putz going up 47 and Brad Ziegler gaining 67. Neither setup man is within 200 ranks of the former White Sox closer, but it's surprising to see his bullpen mates gaining such significant ground. Another positional battle in the desert is taking place at shortstop, where incumbent Didi Gregorius is closing in on challenger Chris Owings. While the rankings still suggest that the job is Owings's to lose, what was once a 239 point gap (653 - 414) is now down to just 75 (545 - 470). Neither of these players are fantasy draftable at this stage, but it's an interesting competition between prospects to keep an eye on.

Jerry Crasnick recently wrote an article on ESPN's Spring Training blog entitled "Rangers' rotation one big jumble" and the rankings seem to reflect that opinion. Yu Darvish is solid at the top, but his #2 from last year, Derek Holland, will be out for most of the first half with a fluky knee injury, and fellow lefty Matt Harrison's back issues will likely keep him from being ready to start the season. None of the above pitchers moved at all in the rankings (ditto recently extended Martin Perez), but the same cannot be said of the placeholders behind them. The rankers seem to see a lot of upside in Alexi Ogando's move back to the rotation (he jumped more than 100 spots to be the team's clear number 2 starter), but the drops of 2013 spot starter Nick Tepesch (-59) and new acquisition Tommy Hanson (-97) do not bode well for the bottom 3/5ths of Texas's rotation. The jump in Neftali Feliz's value (along with the corresponding drop in Joakim Soria's) reflects the former starter turned closer turned starter's return to the 9th inning role.

I hope these findings help some fantasy players avoid some downwardly trending pitfalls and/or draft some upwardly trending sleepers. Now if you'll excuse me it's time to bury my head in some rosters and analysis until I have some lineups ready to post!