Showing posts with label MLB 2020. Show all posts
Showing posts with label MLB 2020. Show all posts

Wednesday, September 2, 2020

Trade Deadline 2020

I must admit that I've paid very little attention to baseball in 2020. Not only are there more dire and important things going on in this country - a still-raging global pandemic, an ever-increasing number of police brutality cases, which our governments are unable/unwilling to address, white supremacy-motivated violence in the streets, incited by the president, and the upcoming battle for the future of our nation's democracy in November. And while all those things are still at the forefront of my mind (and probably those of most Americans), I still can't help but be fascinated by the MLB trade deadline. Sure, it's happening a month later than usual, which happens to be just less than two-thirds of the way through the 60-game 2020 season. But player movement gives us a chance to check in on which teams are surging, which teams are struggling, and who is primed to make the most impact in the most unique MLB playoff push in history.

Here's a position-by-position lineup of the top players who changed teams at or near this year's deadline, evaluated by my favorite fantasy point system. They're also listed with some fun color-coded information, including offseason acquired status (first name highlighted in Yellow, to go with the Cyan that indicates a midseason acquisition), and my personal favorite bit of triviality: each player's astrological sign.




After making his MLB debut last year, Austin Nola emerged as Seattle's top catcher when Tom Murphy went down with a foot injury. The Capricorn Nola was acquired by the Padres, moments after they also picked up lefty-swinging Jason Castro (120 points, 6.7 points-per-game) from the Angels, solidifying their backstop platoon. When you consider that the Friars sent Luis Torrens to the Mariners as part of the return for Nola, and also traded Austin Hedges to Cleveland in a blockbuster trade, San Diego was involved in four of the five catchers to change teams during the 2020 deadline. (The only outlier was Robinson Chirinos, who went from the Rangers to the Mets.)

Speaking of San Diego, they also scored the top overall fantasy point-scoring trade deadline acquisition in Mitch Moreland. After years of languishing in the bowels of the Virgo depth chart behind the likes of Paul Goldschmidt, Joey Votto, and Freddie Freeman, the 34-year-old Moreland finally found his power stroke during his fourth year playing for the Red Sox. Again, he's only had about 80 plate appearances this year, but Moreland's career-high marks in batting average, on-base, and slugging percentages earned him a trade to a contender out west.

The next two infielders on the lineup also qualified at first base, but they'll be occupying second and third base, respectively, for the purposes of this project. In addition to positional eligibility, another thing that Tommy La Stella and Todd Frazier have in common is that they're both Aquarians, which has historically been the worst performing fantasy sign of the baseball zodiac (at least over the last 30 years, which is as far back as my comprehensive astrology baseball database stretches). Rounding out the infield is Jonathan Villar, who was traded from one surprise contender (the Marlins) to another (the Blue Jays). Miami's plan to play the Taurean infielder in center field this year didn't exactly pan out, but perhaps he'll become a backup outfielder in Toronto Buffalo after he's done filling in for the injured Bo Bichette at shortstop.

Libra has had a crazy strong outfield alignment for the last ten years, from Andrew McCutchen, Jose Bautista, Carlos Gonzalez, and Matt Kemp from the early 2010s, to Mookie Betts, Bryce Harper, and Starling Marte of today. Marte's time in the desert was brief, having been acquired by the D-Backs during the offseason, and now he should solidify Miami's outfield as they unexpectedly push for a playoff berth. The other two outfielders also have center field eligibility dating back to 2019, but both Kevin Pillar and Brian Goodwin have spent their 2020 seasons in the corners flanking some pretty high-level defenders: Jackie Bradley Jr. and Mike Trout, respectively. Rounding out the starting nine, infielder Ty France is neck-and-neck with outfielder Jose Martinez (186 / 7.8) for the DH spot, the universal adoption of which is one of the only positive developments I can see coming out of the debacle that is the 2020 MLB season.





In terms of 2020 stats, Taijuan Walker is the top performing starting pitcher to change teams at the deadline. The Leo starter, who was drafted and developed by Seattle, returned to his original team in the offseason after three years in Arizona, before the Mariners shipped him off to the Blue Jays. But the top pitcher moved in terms of star power is Mike Clevinger, who went to the ever-active Padres from the Indians. The Sagittarius starter known as "Sunshine" made headlines (and missed time) earlier in the season for violating the team's COVID protocols, but I guess he was given a clean bill of health prior to his trade to sunny California. Clevinger's Sagittarius teammate Ross Stripling joins him on this All-Acquired team, after the Dodgers were finally able to deal him. (Remember, they tried and failed to send "Chicken Strip" to the Angels as part of the first iteration of the Mookie Betts deal.)

Neither of the two lefties that round out the rotation have had very impressive 2020 seasons, although  to be fair, Mike Minor has a recent track record of excellence, and Tommy Milone's allowed less than 4 runs per 9 innings with the Orioles until his disastrous first start with the Braves (7 runs allowed in 2 1/3 innings) pushed his ERA to 5.68. In the opposite circumstance, Minor's last start with Texas, before he joined the Athletics, was a masterpiece against the Dodgers... although he still failed to pick up his first win of the season (0-5, 5.60 ERA). I feel like I should mention Cal Quantrill in this section, since he served as a starter in his debut year of 2019, but he has pitched almost exclusively out of the bullpen with the Padres, before going to Cleveland as part of the return for Clevinger.

Trevor Rosenthal finally gets to star in the big comeback story that he has been trying to author since 2017, his last season as the closer for the Cardinals. The Gemini known as Big T is yet another player heading to the Padres, and he'll be joined by Cancer cusper Taylor Williams, who emerged as the Mariners' closer, after being picked off waivers from the Brewers during the offseason. The next two relievers on this list are both Leo closers: Archie Bradley, who went from Arizona to Cincinnati, and Brandon Workman, who joined the Phillies from Boston. Speaking of the Phillies, they also acquired David Phelps (185 / 15.4) from Milwaukee, and also Heath Hembree (110 / 6.9) in the same deal as Workman. Other honorable mentions are a pair of relievers traded from the Orioles: Miguel Castro (187 / 11.7) to the Mets, and Mychal Givens (152 / 12.7) to the Rockies.


Those are the lineups: now a few words about some further Astrology implications. Of the 66 players traded at the deadline, 47 of them have appeared in the majors in 2020. Of those 47, the relative majority (8) were Leos. However, curiously, five other signs had exactly 5 players represented: Gemini, Libra, Capricorn, Aquarius, and Pisces. One of these, Pisces, is one of only two signs to not have a player in my "starting lineup" pictured above. The other is Aries, which had only one player traded this deadline season (outfielder Cameron Maybin (88 / 6.3) who went from Detroit to the Cubs). This is also particularly curious because Aries has been the top scoring sign of the last several years - when taking into account a similar "starting lineup" configuration (although with just three relievers). I'll be going into some more big picture detail later, but until then, stay safe, practice social distancing, and hope that your favorite team doesn't get any(more) positive COVID tests.

 

Tuesday, July 14, 2020

Thoughts About the 2020 MLB Season

As the owner of the Internet website "thoughts about baseball dot com," I'd like to officially express my thoughts about Major League Baseball's 2020 season. Namely, I don't think Major League Baseball should go forward with the 2020 season. Don't get me wrong, it makes me terribly sad to envision a whole calendar year without MLB action. Canceling the season would be devastating for everyone who depends on organized baseball for their livelihoods (not to mention mildly annoying for the billionaire owners, who would suffer a loss on their balance sheets, and STILL be left with more money than they could possibly ever spend in a lifetime...)

But here's the thing: everyone who would be devastated by the loss of baseball is ALREADY being devastated by the deadly global pandemic, which is still-raging (in the U.S. at least). And what's more, the very existence of baseball threatens to make the pandemic worse - even without fans in the stadiums, there's still a huge network of players, coaches, trainers, and essential staff (and their personal networks, and networks of networks, etc.) who are being put at risk. And for what? For a sporting event? Baseball might be our national pastime, but at bottom it's also just entertainment.

And while missing the season would undoubtedly be bad for baseball as a whole, who's to say what ramifications await us if the season goes forward as planned? How many players will get sick and have LASTING respiratory problems, which will affect the landscape of the sport through multiple future seasons? Because you can't have an effective baseball season unless the players are healthy and able to play. And the players can't be healthy and able play if there's still no end in sight for this pandemic. And the quickest way to end the pandemic is to avoid dangerous, disease-spreading activities such as professional baseball. (Coupled with basic human decency practices, such as wearing a mask.) The logic seems flawless to me, but I don't know, I'm just a Philosophy major...

So yes, 2020 without MLB would be Bad For Baseball, but it would also be Good For Public Health. And which is more important right now?

Sunday, March 29, 2020

Aries - Fantasy Astrology 2020 Preview

A few days ago, the Karmic Wheel began a new rotation as the sun entered Aries. This is of course the sign under which are born the members of the Aries Rams Fantasy Astrology team. I previewed  the last two signs with projected rosters of my upcoming Fantasy Astrology League (courtesy of ESPN), which are now all done; but two major things happened since then. First, the delay of the 2020 MLB season due to COVID-19, rendering said fantasy league irrelevant in the near future. Second, the release of the newest entrant in the MLB The Show franchise, allowing me to create fantasy astrology simulations with in-game lineups. What follows is an Aries-centered comparison of the player RANKING system developed by MLB.com (i.e. 1st is best, etc), and the player RATING system used by the video game's algorithm (on a 1 to 100 scale).

Aries is represented by the Phillies, mostly because of the uniforms' red color scheme.

First, the unquestioned top end. There are only four players who receive a 99 overall rating in MLB The Show 2020: Mike Trout, Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom, and Nolan Arenado, the latter of which is the Aries third baseman. (Two of those are Leos, but that's a post for August, when we'll HOPEFULLy have some actual baseball going on.) Arenado is ranked in MLB's top 10, along with the player who is #2 on the Rams depth chart, Alex Bregman. Thankfully, Bregman and his 95 rating are also eligible at shortstop, due to Carlos Correa's frequent injuries. Matt Olson has proved himself a powerhouse on both sides of the ball, and the fact that he plays a great first base makes it even more palatable for switch-hitting Carlos Santana to occupy the DH slot. David Dahl is developing into a very solid player anywhere in the outfield, but Lorenzo Cain is the best choice to roam center field. He may even be more valuable in the game setting, where his fabulous defense counts for something.


Now to the discrepancies between the game and the fantasy rankings. Jeff McNeil carries an 89 rating into the game, making him the top option to handle second base. His ranking of 77 also affords him that honor, but given his ability to play all over the diamond, McNeil's better suited shoring up an outfield that is weak beyond the Dahl/Cain duo. This is especially true when you consider former top prospect Cavan Biggio is ranked 94 by MLB.com, so you would want that configuration to maximize a lineup with the best-ranked players (actually HIGHEST-ranked in terms of quality, but lowest sum of of ranked players). But either MLB.com is overrating young former prospects, or the game is underrating them, because Biggio has to settle for a 75 overall rating. We see a similar situation behind the plate: Buster Posey was undoubtedly one of the best catchers of the last decade, which is reflected in his 83 overall game rating. Such high marks certainly aren't reflected by Posely's 2019 production (a meager average of 7.7 points per game), which helped him fall all the way to 303 in the rankings. Much higher (at 102) is Dodgers catcher Will Smith (not to be confused with the Braves (Cancer) reliever of the same name), and he's not that far behind Posey, with a 79 rating... but he technically wouldn't win the backup catcher's job due to Tom Murphy's 82 and Mike Zunino's 81. (To be fair, if this were a real-life situation where a manager REALLY trusts Posey, you'd want Smith to get regular reps in Triple-A.


I actually did some in-depth calculations to link astrology signs to real life teams. You can read about it here:
https://thoughtsaboutbaseball.blogspot.com/2018/11/astrology-signs-to-mlb-teams.html

One thing that makes a simulation simpler than a real-world-reflecting fantasy league is the lack of injuries... at least to start the season. Red Sox ace lefty Chris Sale is rated 93 in the game, even though his ranking had been plummeting: down to 144 when play was suspended on March 10 (Pisces season). This was due due to an arm problem that led to Tommy John surgery, wiping out any of Sale's potential 2020 campaign. Another former top Aries pitcher had a lost 2019 season, as two-time Cy Young winner Corey Kluber - whose 87 ranking almost exactly mirrors his 88 rating - is newly recovered from a broken pitching arm. Even though that was injury was the result of a comebacker hit to the mound, that reminds me of the injury notification from All-Star Baseball 2001 for the Nintendo 64: "Corey Kluber is injured with a br. arm." Talk about ominous...


I give each simulated team the option of carrying up to seven (7) starting pitchers, including two in long relief roles. One of these might be an especially good option for Kenta Maeda - even though he out-rates (however slightly) the likes of Eduardo Rodriguez and Jake Odorizzi - since the Dodgers have utilized Maeda that way in the later parts of recent seasons. Another big discrepancy in rankings vs. ratings happens in the person of Frankie Montas: the suspension returnee is ranked a strong 130, but enjoys just a 76 rating in the game.

If you've looked at analysis of Aries in past fantasy astrology seasons, you may recognize the lack of an important bullpen piece: a study I did after the close of last season suggests that Indians closer Brad Hand may actually be a Pisces. However even a Hand-less Rams bullpen is still an unmistakable strength, with arguably the best reliever in the game, Josh Hader, joining with breakout closer Kirby Yates to create a lefty-righty one-two punch. And it doesn't stop there, with top setup reliever Dellin Betances, potential Pirates closer Keone Kela, the upside of Edwin Diaz, and the injured David Robertson waiting in the wings.

* Baseball Tarot *
Many years ago, when I was going through a Tarot phase, I was gifted a Baseball Tarot deck, which replaces the arcane and occult imagery of the traditional Tarot with baseball concepts and metaphors. One of the most basic two-card layouts is called "Pitch and Swing" where the first card represents the situation you're facing and the second card represents your best course of action or attitude in response. Since fantasy baseball rankings and Tarot both share aspects of Divination, I've decided to do a reading as part my analysis of each sign's upcoming season.


As with Pisces, we have one of the Major Arcana as the first card - and we finally get a reading that doesn't include the Three of Bases. The Aries "Pitch" is XII The Slump, although it is notable that this card came out inverted. Aries won the Fantasy Astrology championship back in 2017, and no team except Libra has multiple victories (since I started this project in 2012), so a two-year drought would not exactly qualify as a slump, at least not relative to the rest of the league. That might be where the inverted factor comes into play: this card corresponds to The Hanged Man in a traditional Tarot deck, and THAT card has a very different connotation when inverted (since the man is hanged upside down).

The book that comes with the Baseball Tarot deck explains that when the Slump card appears in a reading, "You are probably in a rut, experiencing self-doubts or a wave of depression, confronting difficulties that just won't go away." I wouldn't say that this outlook applies specifically to the Aries roster, excepting of course ace pitcher Chris Sale's season-ending injury. But it's an understatement to say that the sport of baseball (and the world in general) is experiencing "difficulties that just won't go away" due to the Coronavirus pandemic. Seen from this wider perspective, the Aries "Swing" card, The MVP of Mitts (Cups in traditional Tarot), can be viewed as a guide to action for everyone in this global crisis. The "Accomplishments of the Heart and Spirit" subtitle references internal awareness, trusting your emotions, and compassion, something that we could all stand to focus on during these times of quarantines and social distancing. The book describes the upside of this card's meaning as "Success in an endeavor requiring love, giving, sensitivity, or intuition," which I think is a good way to describe how we should be approaching life right now.

As I mentioned above, Aries represents the start of a new rotation of the Karmic Wheel, thus the Tarot reading associated with this sign can be expected to have wider-reaching implications than some other signs. I've given up trying to assess what this reading might say about the particular outlook of the Aries Rams team in the potential upcoming season, choosing instead to focus on the bigger picture. With that in mind, I'd like to close with one more quote from the Baseball Tarot book by Mark Lerner and Laura Phillips: "The outcome will be influenced most by your ability to recognize and experience your feelings, tap into your intuition, and act with compassion toward everyone in the situation, including yourself." Easier said than done, obviously, but good advice to keep in mind. Stay safe and stay at home, everyone!

Friday, March 20, 2020

Players Missing from MLB The Show 20

Ever since MLB 20: The Show came out on Tuesday, I've been poring over the default rosters, compiling a database of where all the players are located in terms of batting orders and pitching rotations. Or rather, I've been adding that information to my existing database, built on 40-player rosters, non-roster invitees, and players with MLB experience in 2019. And I came across some rather disturbing discrepancies: 20 players among MLB.com's top 800 fantasy players (including three members or MLB.com's top 100 prospects) were omitted from the game's player pool. Here's the full list, starting with offensive players, followed by pitchers.


Gavin Lux, MLB's #2 prospect, is projected to start at second base for the heavily favored Los Angeles Dodgers (whenever the season ends up starting). Since he's absent from the game's code, utility player Enrique Hernandez gets the virtual nod at LA's keystone. Going by fantasy ranking, next up is Nationals infield prospect Carter Kieboom (#21 on MLB's top 100 prospects list), who has a good chance to take one of Washington's non-Trea Turner infield spots - either second or third base, depending on where new acquisition Starlin Castro ends up. Without Kieboom in the game, fellow newcomer Asdrubal Cabrera is in the starting lineup at the hot corner for the defending World Series champions. The next two players on the list are both imports from Japan's Nippon Professional Baseball: Shogo Akiyama was brought in to join a crowded Reds outfield mix, while Yoshitomo Tsutsugo was brought in to join a crowded Rays DH mix. Since neither player has any MLB experience, I guess it's sensible that the game's developers wanted to wait on creating player models for them until they got a chance to see them play in the states. I don't know, is that how programming for sports video games works?

None of the other missing offensive players ranked below 600 on MLB's top 800, so they're unlikely to make a major impact in 2020, but there are some notable names. Jake Fraley is looking like the favorite to grab one of the starting corner outfield jobs in Seattle until Mitch Haniger is ready to return. Abraham Toro could have some added utility to an Astros club mired in turmoil, since he made his MLB debut long after the time period covered in the sign-stealing scandal. Willi Castro could see some time in the unsettled infield mix for the rebuilding Tigers. The Rangers acquired outfielder Adolis Garcia in a minor trade, after he was designated for assignment by the Cardinals. And the lone non-rookie player on this list, Luis Rengifo, was ALMOST included in a trade from the Angels to the Dodgers (centering on LAD outfielder Joc Pederson), but those talks were scuttled after Boston bowed out of the original configuration of the Mookie Betts blockbuster.


Moving to the pitchers - and, quite honestly, the whole reason I first realized something was amiss - burgeoning Athletics left-hander A.J. Puk (#60 on MLB's top 100 prospects list) is nowhere to be found in the game's player pool. While it's true the Puk managed little more than a cup of coffee in his major league debut last season, after spending most of the year recovering from an injury, the same is true of Jesus Luzardo, ANOTHER A's prized lefty (#12 on the prospects list), and he's firmly entrenched as Oakland's number two starter. Six spots behind Puk on MLB's fantasy rankings, we have Josh Lindblom, a former fringe major leaguer who became a star pitching in the Korea Baseball Organization, and is now attempting a stateside return. Much like famed KBO slugger Eric Thames on the offensive side, Lindblom is attempting said comeback with the Milwaukee Brewers, yet he doesn't appear anywhere on their virtual rotation. The Dodgers were hit particularly hard by these omissions, as they lost not only their top infield prospect, but also one of their best pitching prospects in Tony Gonsolin, although their rotation still looks stacked, even without the cat-shirt enthusiast. Going out of order here, the only dedicated reliever on this list is James Karinchak, who spent some time as a closer in Cleveland's minor league ranks in 2019.

I skipped to Karinchak above because I want to group the next two pitchers together. Kwang Hyun Kim and Shun Yamaguchi both spent their careers to date pitching in overseas leagues - the former in the KBO and the latter in the NPB - but are scheduled to make their major league debuts whenever the season gets underway. Both pitchers are also looking at rather unsettled roles: had the season opened as planned, Kim was all but assured a spot in the Cardinals' rotation, due to an injury to Miles Mikolas. But with the delayed start to the season giving the returning expat additional time to recover, Kim could be ticketed for starting his MLB career with a bullpen role. Yamaguchi has actually had success as both a starter and a reliever in Japan, and given the lengths to which Toronto went to improve their pitching staff in the offseason, it was always rather unlikely that Yamaguchi would start the year in the rotation. In the lone Fantasy Astrology reference I'll make in this post, both of these pitchers represent the Cancer Crabs, a sign that has historically lacked depth in the starting pitching department.

Of the final five pitchers on this list, three are veterans (i.e. non-rookies) who didn't see any time in the majors last year due to injury. Kendall Graveman and Chad Kuhl are both recovering from Tommy John surgery (the former was given a make-good deal by the Mariners, while the latter remains with the Pirates), while Cardinals lefty Austin Gomber was pitching in the minors when he went down with biceps and shoulder issues in May. The other two are lower level prospects who could see extended opportunities due to health issues elsewhere on their respective clubs. The Indians acquired Logan Allen (alongside Franmil Reyes and Yasiel Puig) in a trade with the Padres (and the Reds) at last year's July 31st deadline, and he could help Cleveland fill in for injured hurlers Mike Clevinger and Carlos Carrasco. Patrick Sandoval struggled in both the majors and the minors last year, but the Angels will likely need him to step up early in the year due to uncertainty surrounding Shohei Ohtani (as a pitcher, anyway) and Griffin Canning.

Sunday, March 8, 2020

Fantasy Astrology 2020 Team Ranks - Super Tuesday

If you follow my Twitter, you'll know that I tried just about everything to distract myself from politics following Super Tuesday, to no avail. One of my activities was to determine aggregate team ranks for my Fantasy Astrology Baseball League. To do this, I re-updated my baseball database with up-to-date rankings for all of MLB.com's top 800 players, then I determined projected lineups for all 12 signs based on those rankings, and finally I added up the rankings of all the players in those projected lineups to create one all-encompassing number representing the fantasy talent level of each sign. The results may shock and surprise you...




First of all, it's curious that stars from both the top and bottom ranked signs inked extensions with their real-life clubs just days ago. Sagittarius outfielder Christian Yelich, the #1 ranked player according to MLB this year, will continue with the Brewers for the next nine years. Meanwhile Yoan Moncada will handle third base for the White Sox for the foreseeable future, although he's pushed to DH on Gemini by the presence of Anthony Rendon. Also remember that we're dealing with rankings and not fantasy point totals, so the lower numbers are better. Which is why SAG having the top two-ranked players (Ronald Acuna Jr. is #2) puts them handily at the top of the list.

Possibly not coincidentally, the next-ranked team, Leo, has the #3 overall player Mike Trout (a consensus #1 player for many years before this). And the trend continues with Cancer finishing behind them with the help of #4 player Cody Bellinger (last year's NL MVP). The fourth team, Aries, has not only the #5 player, but also the #8 player... but you can check out more detailed analysis of the top-ranked fantasy players in MLB here.

Moving towards the bottom, of both this list of signs and of MLB.com's fantasy rankings, last year's champion Virgo falls to the bottom four largely because of a single position. The only ranked catcher in the VIR talent pool is John Hicks, who was a frequently-used backup for the Tigers in 2019, but finds himself third (at best) on Arizona's depth chart, and on a minor league invitation to spring training. This uncertain status leaves him with a ranking of 798 out of 800, dragging down an otherwise respectable lineup at basically every position.

While individual player rankings will change (some of them drastically) in the (roughly) next three weeks before the start of the season, but I doubt if the general hierarchy of fantasy signs will shift that much. But only time (and the injury bug) will tell if the stars will show stability or upheaval.

Wednesday, March 4, 2020

Pisces - Fantasy Astrology 2020 Preview

As the calendar turns to the month of March, we also march into the biggest month of Pisces season. Thus, Pisces will be the next sign I'll profile in my preview of the 2020 Fantasy Astrology Baseball season. For details on this particular preview series, please check out the previous post about Aquarius. Although unlike the Water Carriers, the Fish have had some Fantasy Astrology success, winning the championship back in 2015, unseating threepeat champions Libra team, thanks to the performances of Clayton Kershaw, Jake Arrieta, and Chris Davis. I'll bet you'll be able to guess which two of those three players will start the 2020 season on the Pisces projected 40-player roster:



Remember that the fantasy rankings displayed here are current as of Valentine's Day, which is why Luis Severino is listed here, despite the fact that he will miss the entire 2020 season due to Tommy John surgery. While it surely hurts to lose a pitcher of Sevy's caliber, the Fish still have a high quality rotation, with a top end of Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw, and German Marquez. The depth falls off somewhat after that, at least considering established starters, despite the fact that Anibal Sanchez was an integral part of the World Champion Nationals last season. But in terms of replacing Severino's production, the best shots might be pitching prospect Mackenzie Gore, depending on when the Padres see fit to bring him up to the Show.

But while the Fish have lost a starter (due to injury), they actually gain a reliever (due to some bookkeeping corrections). Players aren't supposed to change teams in the Fantasy Astrology landscape, but some research I did this offseason shows that I had misclassified Brad Hand as an Aries in previous versions of this project. Hand joins the Pisces player pool prior to 2020, joining flamethrowing Cuban Aroldis Chapman to form arguably the best lefty-lefty bullpen duo in the league. The bullpen is deep too, with former/potential closers Scott Oberg, Daniel Hudson, Sergio Romo, and Emmanuel Clase.



The same bookkeeping corrections that delivered Brad Hand also took away longtime shortstop Didi Gregorius, who is in fact an Aquarius. The incumbent shortstop, Jean Segura, will maintain his eligibility, even though he is moving over to second base in Philadelphia to make room for... you guessed it, Didi Gregorius. But as soon as Segura does qualify at the keystone, he'll move to make room for Blue Jays recent prospect graduate Bo Bichette. Speaking of infielders north of the border, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. didn't break out last year like we all hoped, but everyone believes the potential is there. Still, he might need to look over his shoulder at Miguel Andujar, depending on his role/production with the Yankees.

As far as locks for the roster, J.T. Realmuto is arguably the best catcher in the game. Jorge Soler, Nick Castellanos, and Tommy Pham should fill up the corner OF/DH slots, leaving center field for Michael Conforto, and creating a camp battle at first base between Trey Mancini and Rhys Hoskins. That leaves Kyle Schwarber to fight for a bench spot against two of baseball's most versatile utility players: Marwin Gonzalez and Niko Goodrum.


* Baseball Tarot *
Many years ago, when I was going through a Tarot phase, I was gifted a Baseball Tarot deck, which replaces the arcane and occult imagery of the traditional Tarot with baseball concepts and metaphors. One of the most basic two-card layouts is called "Pitch and Swing" where the first card represents the situation you're facing and the second card represents your best course of action or attitude in response. Since fantasy baseball rankings and Tarot both share aspects of Divination, I've decided to do a reading as part my analysis of each sign's upcoming season.


Divination really sucks sometimes. All the excitement after pulling one of the Major Arcana for the "Pitch" (XVI: Whole New Ballgame), only to be totally crestfallen when the "Swing" turned out to be the same card I pulled for Aquarius (Three of Bases: Shake-Off). However, this time it was inverted? That's gotta count for something? But back to that momentous first card: in the traditional Tarot deck, Whole New Ball Game corresponds to The Tower, a card that represents a period of great upheaval. While lightning striking a scoreboard depicting a dramatic comeback by the home team doesn't evoke the same catastrophe as the traditional art (where the eponymous tower is literally crumbling and its denizens are falling to their dooms), it's clear that a shocking change is in store.

The biggest change that comes to mind between when I made the above charts and now is Luis Severino's elbow injury. The book that comes with the deck features the bullet point "The Deeper Truth Comes Out" in its entry for this card, and in this case, the deeper truth could refer to the rotation depth that will be necessary to get through the season. Another change in the Pisces roster involves the departing/arriving players (i.e. Didi Gregorius and Brad Hand, respectively), which could correspond to the "Chaos Leading to New Knowledge" bullet point in the book. In either case, the important thing Pisces should focus on is staying grounded so as best to cope with surprises: either the ones that already happened, or the ones that are in store.

As for the inverted Three of Balls, I wrote about that one last time, saying that it represents "admitting unhappiness," knowing something is wrong, and realizing you must make a change. Obviously this dovetails nicely with the catastrophic change that's depicted in the first card, but the fact that the Shake-Off is inverted could represent an unwillingness to accept this change (kind of like the GM who says the team will "rely on internal options" in the wake of a significant injury). Or it could mean that an unorthodox, out-of-the-box solution is necessary in this case (e.g. the opener strategy). Either way, big things are clearly on the horizon for Pisces in 2020.

Tuesday, February 25, 2020

Non-Roster Invitees 2020 - NL East

Jumping across leagues from the last batch of Non-Roster Invitees I profiled, here are some highlights of the non-roster players invited to Spring Training by teams in the National League East division. As a recap, for each team, I'll highlight how many total NRI's will be in big league camp, which of them appeared in the majors in 2019, which were ranked in MLB.com's top 800 fantasy player rankings, and which appeared on MLB.com's Top 100 Prospect list. (All player statuses are current as of February 18, 2020, the first day when full squads were present for workouts for all 30 teams.)


Atlanta Braves
Total NRI: 26
MLB 19: 6
Ranked: 2
Top 100: 3

The back-to-back NL East champion Braves don't have a ton of holes to fill on their roster, but a couple of those holes have the chance to be occupied by non-roster players in big league camp. Starting with the top player ranked by MLB, we have Ian Anderson, a pitching prospect who has yet to make his major league debut. Based on his ranking (#448), he actually projects as Atlanta's fifth starter: their locks at one-thru-four rank between 114 and 233, although the usage of Sean Newcomb (#404), a reliever in 2019, could change that calculus. Another rotation candidate at the polar opposite of his career trajectory to Anderson is 15-year veteran Felix Hernandez (#587), who is trying to recapture his Cy Young award-winning form after finishing out a big contract with Seattle.

Aside from King Felix, some notable players who saw major league time in 2019 are returning Braves Charlie Culberson and Rafael Ortega, veteran utility journeyman Yangervis Solarte, and rave-review-getter Peter O'Brien. Turning our gaze to members of MLB's top 100 prospects, outfielder Drew Waters leads the pack at #26, which is the same amount of career games he has at the Triple-A level (all coming in 2019). The above-mentioned Anderson is next in line at #37 - he also split his 2019 season between Double-A and Triple-A, with about the same ratio as Waters. The ninth overall pick in last year's draft, catcher Shea Langeliers, falls in at #70, even though his professional career consists of 54 games at the Single-A level.

UPDATE: One particular characteristic of minor league deals with invitations to spring training is that they tend to fly under the radar as far as MLB.com's official transaction log is concerned. For example, Atlanta's transaction log currently shows two such signings of 2019 big leaguers: returning Brave Josh Tomlin (on February 12th) and first baseman Yonder Alonso (on February 14th). However, I downloaded a version of that same transaction log on February 18th (my self-professed cutoff date), and those two transactions are nowhere to be found therein. It's an idiosyncrasy that I doubt matters to anyone but the most fastidious roster-obsessed folks like myself, but it occupies a fair amount of my attention every winter/spring.


Miami Marlins
Total NRI: 25
MLB 19: 6
Ranked: 1
Top 100: 1

This is not a stat I'm keeping track of throughout all teams, but a whopping 11 of Miami's 25 non-roster invitees were signed to minor league deals from outside the organization (rather than culled from existing minor league depth), showing how seriously the Marlins are about camp battles for roster spots. The only one ranked in MLB's top 800 fantasy players is former MVP candidate Matt Kemp, although his ranking of #754 shows that his chances of being a meaningful contributor are rather low. Other former MLB players include infielder Sean Rodriguez, catcher Ryan Lavarnway, former closer Brad Boxberger, and switch pitcher Pat Venditte. Their one top-100 prospect was another 2019 first round pick (fourth overall), outfielder JJ Bleday (ranked #28).


New York Mets
Total NRI: 23
MLB 19: 11
Ranked: 1
Top 100: 0

Of the teams we've looked at so far, the Mets trail only the Yankees and the Rays in total number of 2020 NRI's, but just under half of them saw action in the big leagues last year. The only one ranked by MLB is first baseman and hopeful outfielder Matt Adams (#613), fresh off a World Series winning 2019 campaign with the Nationals. His chances of making the roster will depend on both his aptitude in the grass and the injury status of one Yoenis Cespedes (ranked #493, but still seemingly not close to game action). Former White Sox outfielder Ryan Cordell, iron gloved infielder Eduardo Nunez (late of the Red Sox), and returning backup catcher candidate Rene Rivera make up the rest of the most notable 2019 major leaguers. While New York NL doesn't have a single NRI ranked within MLB's top 100 prospects, it's interesting to note that former NFL quarterback Tim Tebow is still trying to make the transition from the gridiron to the diamond.



Philadelphia Phillies
Total NRI: 28
MLB 19: 10
Ranked: 4
Top 100: 2

The Phillies NRI's with the top 2020 fantasy rankings from MLB.com are also the two players included in MLB.com's top 100 list. Based solely on the rankings, #34 overall prospect Spencer Howard (#317) projects as the third best starter on Philadelphia's staff (50 to 75 spots in front of rotation candidates Jake Arrieta, Vince Velasquez, and Zach Eflin), despite the fact that Howard has not pitched above Double-A. Likewise, #30 overall prospect Alec Bohm (#414) is ranked as the top third base option in the organization - assuming Scott Kingery (#206) beats out Adam Haseley (#556) for the center field job. Of course, that's not taking into account veterans Neil Walker (#733), Josh Harrison (#774), Logan Forsythe, Phil Gosselin, and Ronald Torreyes (all unranked), who could factor into the infield picture. Shifting to the bullpen, returning Phillie Blake Parker, starter-turned-lefty specialist Francisco Liriano, journeyman Anthony Swarzak, and bounceback candidates Bud Norris and Drew Storen could all potentially see some high-leverage innings.


Washington Nationals
Total NRI: 22
MLB 19: 7
Ranked: 1
Top 100: 1

The reigning world champions were the last team to publicly announce their non-roster invitees, publishing the list on February 12th, but there are a few notable names among them. The only one with a rank from MLB.com is backup catcher candidate Welington Castillo (#710), who has already technically been a member of three teams since the 2019 season ended, as the White Sox traded his contract to the Rangers, who then declined his option the next day. However, the Nats also brought in several options to bolster both their outfield mix (Mac Williamson, JB Shuck) and their bullpen (Javy Guerra, David Hernandez, Fernando Abad). Their lone appearance on the top 100 prospects list just barely made it as Luis (V.) Garcia (not to be confused with Luis (A.) Garcia, the established right handed reliever who is in camp with the Rangers) clocked in at #97 according to MLB.com.

Saturday, February 22, 2020

Non-Roster Invitees 2020 - AL East

It's finally here! Spring Training games are being broadcast on MLB Network! The long arduous baseball offseason is coming to an end! Which means that it's one of the busiest times of year for those of us who are unhealthily obsessed with baseball rosters: Non-Roster Invitation Season! At around this time every year, each MLB franchise supplements the players on its roster with a group of non-roster invitees (NRI's), whose goals are either to a) compete for a roster spot, or b) gain valuable experience by being around MLB players and staff for a month before returning to the minor leagues.

Since today's first game on the MLB Network docket features the Yankees and the Blue Jays, I'm starting this analysis with the AL East teams. For each team, I'll highlight how many total NRI's will be in big league camp, which of them appeared in the majors in 2019, which were ranked in MLB.com's top 800 fantasy player rankings, and which appeared on MLB.com's Top 100 Prospect list. (All player statuses are current as of February 18, 2020, the first day when full squads were present for workouts for all 30 teams.)


Baltimore Orioles
Total NRI: 27
MLB 19: 12
Ranked: 1
Top 100: 1

As a team in the middle of a lengthy rebuild, the Orioles are in a position to let plenty of non-roster players compete for significant time in the big leagues this year. However, the only player ranked in MLB.com's top 800 is lefty swing-pitcher Wade LeBlanc (#709), who put up 521 points and 20.0 points per game for the Mariners last year. Seattle declined a team option they held over the pitcher known as "Frenchy," which led to a minor league deal with Baltimore, where he'll compete with rostered players David Hess, Kohl Stewart, and possibly prospects like Dean Kremer (#691), Keegan Akin (#720), and Brandon Bailey (#721) for a spot in the O's rotation. Other players who saw MLB action in 2019 include Tommy Milone (who also saw action in Seattle last year), Stevie Wilkerson (Baltimore's regular center fielder last year, who was outrighted off the roster after the season), and Bryan Holaday (signed out of Miami to compete for the backup catching job). As for the one member of MLB's top 100 prospects, that honor goes to the first overall pick in last year's draft, catcher of the future Adley Rutschman (#4).


Boston Red Sox
Total NRI: 26
MLB 19: 6
Ranked: 0
Top 100: 1

The results of the league's investigation into Boston's alleged sign stealing in 2018 is still pending, the team lost incumbent manager Alex Cora because of his role in Houston's sign stealing scandal from the year prior, their new general manager traded away their best player in a blatant cost-saving move, and there are essentially no players of note in Red Sox camp. Cesar Puello (an outfielder who split his 2019 between Anaheim and Miami) and Marco Hernandez (a former Red Sox infielder who was non-tendered and re-signed) represent the only players who put up more than 40 fantasy points in the majors last year, and none of Boston's NRI's were ranked by MLB. Adding insult to injury, the one member of MLB's top 100 prospects (Jeter Downs, #44) was acquired in the above-mentioned Mookie Betts trade, and is named after Yankees Hall of Fame shortstop Derek Jeter.

UPDATE: I set the cutoff date of this particular analysis as Feb 18, 2020 (the date when full squads for all teams have reported to camp), but minor league deals with NRI's will continue to trickle in for the remainder of Spring Training. One such deal was the Red Sox signing Jonathan Lucroy (ranked #722 by MLB) to compete with Kevin Plawecki (#725) for the backup catcher position. Despite his offensive drop-off in recent years, I'd say Luc has a decent shot of winning the camp battle, not least because Boston's new interim manager Ron Roenicke managed the veteran backstop during his heyday in Milwaukee.


New York Yankees
Total NRI: 21
MLB 19: 9
Ranked: 1
Top 100: 1

According to broadcaster Michael Kay (who, in my opinion, did his best work in All-Star Baseball 2000 for the Nintendo 64), Yankees players missed more than 2,000 player-games due to injuries last year, so they clearly know the importance of organizational depth. That said, the only ranked player among New York's NRI's is Chris Iannetta (#760) who will provide some veteran competition to presumed backup catcher Kyle Higashioka (#734). (That's the same purpose served by fellow veteran backstops Erik Kratz and Josh Thole.) Otherwise, the  majority of MLB veterans in camp are pitchers: David Hale, Luis Avilan, Chad Bettis, Dan Otero, and Tyler Lyons. Their one top 100 prospect is right handed pitcher Clarke Schmidt (#88), who spent the majority of the 2019 season with the class A-advanced Tampa Tarpons.


Tampa Bay Rays
Total NRI: 21
MLB 19: 7
Ranked: 1
Top 100: 0

Speaking of Tampa, the Rays didn't invite a lot of heat to their MLB camp this year, focusing, as many teams do, on the catching position. One of Kevan Smith (ranked #740, late of the Angels) or Chris Herrmann (fresh off a deal with the A's) is a good bet to land the big league backup catching position behind Mike Zunino. Ryan LaMarre saw a handful of games in Minnesota's outfield last year, but Tampa Bay already has a deep group there. The only other real player of note is the 6'10" right-hander Aaron Slegers, who is the second-tallest player invited to a Spring Training camp in 2020 (behind only Giants hurler Sean Hjelle, by a single inch).


Toronto Blue Jays
Total NRI: 24
MLB 19: 9
Ranked: 1
Top 100: 1

The Blue Jays just closed out this first 2020 Spring Training broadcast over the Yankees, despite a rocky ninth inning by Jake Petricka, one of six pitchers who saw MLB action in 2019. However, the one player who was ranked by MLB heading into the season - who is also the same player to appear on the top 100 prospects list - hasn't yet gotten his first call to the show. Based on his ranking, pitching prospect Nate Pearson (ranked #276, and named as the game's #8 prospect) is widely expected to contribute heavily to Toronto's pitching staff: the only pitchers ranked above him on the Blue Jays roster are free agent acquisition Hyun-Jin Ryu (#119) and closer Ken Giles (#129). Does that mean Pearson is likely to beat out the likes of Tanner Roark (#388), Matt Shoemaker (#418), Chase Anderson (#426), or even today's starter Trent Thornton (#518) for an opening day rotation spot? Unlikely, given both service time considerations and the fact that he only has three games above the Double-A level. But keep your eyes on that transaction log as the summer rolls around.

Sunday, February 16, 2020

Aquarius - Astrology 2020 Valentine's Day Preview

If Valentine's Day falls during Aquarius season, does that mean Aquarius is the most romantic astrological sign? I know that it's the first sign, both alphabetically and also according to the calendar, going by the months in which each sign starts. I also know that it has historically been the worst sign by far at producing quality major league baseball players born under its constellation. At least in the past two decades for which I have data: it might surprise you to know that both Babe Ruth and Hank Aaron are Aquarians, so there was a time when the sign had some respectability. But then again, so were Vladimir Guerrero and Roberto Alomar, and the sign still faltered in the late 90's.

Either way, the 2020 Aquarius Water Carriers (or Water Bearers? Is that better?) look to continue the trend of Fantasy Astrology Baseball bottom feeders. This fact is illustrated in AQU's current 40-player roster, as determined by me, the commissioner of the only known Fantasy Astrology Baseball league on the Internet. As a Valentine's Day present to myself, I reactivated the league and started work on the rosters for 2020, the first results of which you'll see below.


First, the Aquarius pitchers, sorted by 2019 position (i.e. starter or reliever) and then MLB.com's fantasy player rankings. The first thing to note is that the top two scoring starters from 2019 (Jeff Samardzija and Marco Gonzales) don't even project to make the rotation based on the rankings. I'm honestly not sure what the pundits see in Adrian Houser to make them rank him ahead of those two, plus recent injury-returnee Johnny Cueto. While he's slated for a rotation spot this coming year, the "Position 2" column shows that he split last year between the rotation and the bullpen, and it's not like he performed better as a starter - 4.57 ERA in 18 starts (80 innings), vs. a 1.47 ERA in 17 relief appearances (30 innings). But for a sign that's been as hard up as Aquarius has been in the recent past, they surprisingly have plenty of starting pitching depth.

The relief pitching depth, on the other hand, isn't quite as impressive, but it doesn't need to be, since the starting lineups in my league are set up with five starters and just two relievers. Some signs don't even have two dedicated closers, let alone two star closers such as Roberto Osuna and Liam Hendriks, so AQU is very well set up in that respect. Of course it all falls apart if one of them were to get injured or suspended for some reason... but that's the case for many positions for many signs around the Fantasy Astrology league.


And now the Water Carrier batters, which is where things really start to slide downhill. A cursory glance will reveal just two position players in the top 100, and just one in the top half of the top 100: Whit Merrifield, who will likely spend most of his time in the outfield to make room for Rougned Odor at second base. Joining Whitley in the outfield are two center field capable players, Max Kepler and Bryan Reynolds, with former platoon player Mark Canha able to step in. As an A's fan, I hope the top brass gives Canha more regular playing time, even against southpaws, as opposed to throwing plate appearances to replacement level lefties like Robbie Grossman (ranked a toothless 766).

2020 is especially interesting for AQU, since it will be the first year with their "new" starting shortstop, Didi Gregorius - the resources I had previously been using to determine birth signs had incorrectly identified him as a Pisces. It's not like this sign has been lacking help up the middle, with Dansby Swanson and Brandon Crawford as mainstays, but it never hurts to have more talent on hand. Speaking of supplanted infield stalwarts, it seems likely that long time third baseman Todd Frazier might lose playing time to 2019 breakout performer Tommy La Stella, super utility type Jon Berti, or even up-and-coming prospect Ke'Bryan Hayes before the season is over.

* Baseball Tarot *

Many years ago, when I was going through a Tarot phase, I was gifted a Baseball Tarot deck, which replaces the arcane and occult imagery of the traditional Tarot with baseball concepts and metaphors. For example, the Major and Minor Arcana are renamed the Major and Minor Leagues, and the four suits comprising the latter are changed from Cups, Swords, Wands, and Coins to Mitts, Balls, Bats, and Bases. One of the most basic two-card layouts is called "Pitch and Swing" where the first card represents the situation you're facing and the second card represents your best course of action or attitude in response. Since fantasy baseball rankings and Tarot both share aspects of Divination, I've decided to do a reading as part my analysis of each sign's upcoming season.


For Aquarius, the Pitch was Assist (Twelve of Bases) while the Swing was Shake-Off (Three of Balls). My first impressions of these cards are that they're both defensive (a fielder makes an assist and the pitcher shakes off a sign from their catcher), indicating that now might not be the year that Aquarius will storm to the top of the Fantasy Astrology league. Referring to the book included with the deck, the entry under Assist starts with the heading "demonstrating reliability," which in this situation calls to mind the lyric in the song "Heart" from the musical Damn Yankees: "The team has been consistent." "Yeah, we always lose!" One aspect of this card is understanding expectations, which, for Aquarius, are understandably low. On the other hand, the entry for Shake-Off starts with "admitting unhappiness," knowing something is wrong, and realizing you must make a change. Something has decidedly been wrong with Aquarius's performance, based on their place in the Fantasy Astrology standings... but what exactly must change to turn them into contenders will have to come to light over the course of a long season.

Thursday, February 13, 2020

Astrology 2020 Top Ranked Players

As of today, pitchers and catchers from all but two MLB teams will have reported to Spring Training camps. The Dodgers and the Reds are the last to officially summon their battery-mates, which they do on Friday and Saturday, respectively. Given we're taking our first tentative steps into the 2020 baseball season, I thought this would be a good time to emerge from my offseason blog-cation, and look at the Astrology Baseball landscape, through the lens of MLB.com's fantasy player rankings.

Below you'll find a brief analysis of the top-ranked player in each sign - or more, in the special case of a sign having multiple players in the top 10 overall. Next to each player's name, you'll see his 2019 fantasy point totals and points per game average (the latter in parenthesis).


Sagittarius
1. Christian Yelich - 2,709 (20.8)
2. Ronald Acuna Jr. - 2,674 (17.1)

This special case applies to the top two players in the sport, according to MLB.com, as superstar outfielders Yelich and Acuna were both born under the Sagittrarius star sign. Yelich won the 2018 NL MVP award, and a late-season injury was likely the biggest factor that prevented him from taking home back-to-back trophies. Acuna also got some hardware in 2018, earning Rookie of the Year honors, and he followed up that performance with three stolen bases shy of a 40-40 season. With such a dynamic duo roaming the grass, could this be the year where the Archers win it all?


Leo
3. Mike Trout - 2,568 (19.1)

For years, Trout hasbeen the consensus best player in MLB, which is why this ranking is a bit perlexing to me. He doesn't seem to be showing any signs of slowing down, as the 28-year-old won the AL MVP last year (his third time in the last six seasons), although he has missed  time due to injuries in each of the past three seasons. Honorable mention for the Lions goes to starting pitcher Max Scherzer, who was ranked #11 overall, fresh off a World Series winning season.


Cancer
4. Cody Bellinger - 2,849 (18.2)

Bellinger won the NL MVP over Yelich last year, not only because of his legit offensive breakout, but because he was able to stay on the field for 26 more games than the defending champion. Belli settled into right field for the Dodgers, but his eligibility at first base and in center field will help a Crabs roster that is not particularly deep at either position. One position where the Decapods are particularly deep is shortstop, where Trea Turner leads the field at #13.


Aries
5. Nolan Arenado - 2,525 (16.1)
8. Alex Bregman - 2,739 (17.5)

The only other sign with two players in the top 10 is Aries, where Arenado and Bregman once again comprise the left half of the Rams infield. Despite his displeasure with his current organization, a trade sending Arenado away from the Rockies (and thus hitter-friendly Coors Field) seems unlikely, so his park factors should remain in place this season. If Carlos Correa ever has a full, healthy season aside Bregman in Houston, it would be bad news for Aries's ability to maximize its best players positionally: without the shortstop eligibility Bregman has from serving as a frequent backup, he would have to take up the DH slot.


Libra
6. Mookie Betts - 2,560 (17.0)

Bellinger's newest teammate in Los Angeles, Betts was involved the most dramatic blockbuster trade of the offseason, which not only helped the Red Sox duck under the luxury tax threshold, but also delivered a second MVP-caliber outfielder to the Dodgers (Betts won the AL MVP in 2018). The only thing that would make this saga complete is if Betts pulled a Paul Goldschmidt and signed a long term extension with Los Angeles after spurning multiple attempts from Boston. Libra has a fairly large gap between their top fantasy talents: the next Scales players on the list are Betts's former teammate Xander Bogaerts and Cardinals ace Jack Flaherty at #25 and #26, respectively.


Virgo
7. Gerrit Cole - 3,148 (95.3)

Before the Astros became mired in the infamous sign-stealing scandal, they had to watch arguably their best pitcher Cole depart for the Yankees, who forked over the largest ever contract for a pitcher in free agency to land the 2019 Cy Young award runner-up. Cole's durability (he made at least 32 starts in four of the last five seasons) and ability to miss bats (he led the AL with 326 strikeouts and 13.8 K/9) will be welcome for a New York team that saw a record number of injuries in 2019. Next after Cole on the Maidens list of top players is Atlanta's slugging first baseman Freddie Freeman at #14.


Scorpio
9. Francisco Lindor - 2,232 (15.6)

Like Betts, Lindor has shown no willingness to engage his current club in extension talks, so it's not unreasonable to predict that the Indians will ship him to another team sometime between now and the end of the 2021 season, his final year of team control. The switch hitter known as "Mr. Smile" will continue to lead the way for both the Tribe and the Scorpions with his electric style of play. In perhaps the worst positional logjam in the Astrology Baseball landscape, Scorpio's top two players are shortstops: Colorado's Trevor Story follows Lindor closely at #12.


Pisces
10. Justin Verlander - 3,235 (95.1)

Houston Astros teammates Verlander and Cole put up nearly identical numbers in the 2019 season, but it was  the veteran J-V who came away with second Cy Young award (the other was in 2011), while the Cole Train had to content himself with a huge bag full of money. Verlander turns 37 years old in a week, but he'll be counted on to lead a Houston staff and change the narrative from investigations into cheating to winning ballgames. His co-ace on the Fish for years has been Clayton Kershaw, although the Dodgers lefty has fallen on some inconsistent times as he approaches his early-mid 30's, dropping all the way to #42 in the rankings.


Gemini
15. Jacob deGrom - 2,495 (77.9)
16. Anthony Rendon - 2,673 (18.3)

The first of the signs to not have a player in the top 10, Gemini nevertheless has a very strong one-two punch in back-to-back NL Cy Young award winner deGrom and Mike Trout's newest supporting cast member Rendon. Both will play for their current real-world teams for the foreseeable future, as deGrom signed a five-year extension (plus an option) with the Mets prior to last year, and Rendon got a massive seven-year free agent deal to play in Anaheim.


Taurus
18. Jose Altuve - 1,915 (15.4)

I guess allegations of using an electronic buzzer to receive signs from his teammates didn't affect Altuve's fantasy standing, as the diminutive second baseman still finds himself ranked within the top 20. That was absolutely an unfair dig, as Altuve has been one of the best hitters in the sport long before the shadow of scandal darkened Houston's doorstep, even winning the MVP award in 2017, the year that the trash can scheme reached its zenith... wait a minute... maybe that dig wasn't so unfair after all! Looking down the Bulls roster, we have Aaron Judge next at #30, who won Rookie of the Year the same year that Altuve took home his MVP.


Capricorn
31. Fernando Tatis Jr. - 1,437 (17.1)

The son of the former major league third baseman with the same name never really got much Rookie of the Year consideration due to an injury-shortened debut season - Tatis Jr. only managed 84 games, despite the fact that the Padres bucked the service time manipulation trend and put him on the active roster to start the year. Unfortunately, the Mets used the same strategy with Sagittarius slugger Pete Alonso, and he went on to set the rookie record for home runs in a season. Next on the Goats hierarchy is Tatis's double play partner Ozzie Albies at #38.


Aquarius
49. Whit Merrifield - 2,154 (13.2)

Bringing up the rear, we have the always-hapless Aquarius, which has just one player in the top 50. Whit Merrifield is a tremendously talented player, with some versatility built in, but experienced fantasy drafters wouldn't pick him until the fourth or fifth round. Jose Abreu is next at #60, but neither is the type of player around whom you'd want to build a team. On an interesting historical note, this year I learned that not only are baseball legends Babe Ruth and Hank Aaron both Aquarians, but their birthdays are one day apart! (One calendar day, that is - Hammerin' Hank was born the day before the Babe's 39th birthday.) While the 2019 Water Carriers don't look too exciting, Aquarian baseball fans can look at this fact and dream of a time when their sign will once again rule the Astrological diamond.

Friday, January 3, 2020

All-Acquired 2019-20 - National League

In my last post, I went over the top new players acquired by American League teams during the 2019-only portion of the 2019-20 offseason. Today I'll continue with the National League version, after which I will lock myself in my room for as long as it takes to update my team-by-team baseball database with rosters current as of New Year's Day.


Going by both 2019 fantasy points and by prior MLB track record, the top free agent starting pitcher to sign with a new NL team this winter was Madison Bumgarner. The big lefty jumped ship within his division, going from the Giants (with whom he won three World Series titles as part of the even-year dynasty) to the Diamondbacks (presumably because of their hitter-friendly ballpark). In terms of contract size and future upside, the top acquisition was Zack Wheeler, who easily topped $100MM in his five-year deal with the Phillies. Continuing down the list of MLB Trade Rumors's top-ranked free agents (Stephen Strasburg of course being ineligible because he re-signed with his former team), we have veteran lefty Cole Hamels, who will take the Braves' rotation spot vacated by veteran lefty Dallas Keuchel who finds himself in the AL version of this list. Another veteran lefty, Wade Miley, will round out a quite strong 2020 Reds rotation, despite the fact that he was left off Houston's playoff roster in 2019.

The Brewers have three names in the All-Acquired starting pitcher pool, headlined (at least in terms of 2019 fantasy points) by Brett Anderson, who somehow managed to stay healthy enough to put up a full season's worth of starts for the A's. Milwaukee grabbed a second new southpaw starter, Eric Lauer, in a trade with the Padres, for whom they sent out righty Zach Davies. The third Brew Crew acquisition appears in the below image, since Josh Lindblom pitched 2019 in the Korea Baseball Organization. The former Dodgers prospect will try to follow in the footsteps of fellow KBO-returnee Eric Thames in Milwaukee, except for the part where the latter unceremoniously had his contract option declined after the past season. Speaking of imports from the KBO, the Cardinals picked up Kwang-hyun Kim (it's spelled "Gwang-hyun" if you're looking for his baseball-reference page), whose former team will receive a posting fee equal to 20% of his contract with St. Louis. The only team other than the Brewers with multiple starter acquisitions is the Mets, who picked up both Rick Porcello and Michael Wacha, with one of them presumably headed to the bullpen to start the year. 


At this point in the offseason, the NL has been much more active than the AL on the relief market, with two pitchers who served as their teams' closers for at least part of 2019 having changed hands already. The Braves are supposedly planning to have Will Smith act in a setup role in front of Mark Melancon (another pitcher late of the Giants), but I'm hoping for the sake of the Cancer Crabs Fantasy Astrology team that they change course and Smith gets to rack up saves all year. Speaking of the Cancer Crabs, Blake Treinen followed up his historic 2018 season with a total dud in 2019, although that didn't stop the Dodgers from taking a one-year flier on the hard-throwing sinkerballer. Former starter Drew Pomeranz blossomed into a star reliever after a midseason trade to the Brewers last year, and the Padres are hoping that improvement will be sustainable in his second stint with the club. And Dellin Betances was a bastion of excellence for the Yankees until an injury-ruined 2019, but his track record led the crosstown Mets to take a chance on a return to glory.


It's a curious coincidence that the NL All-Acquired first base pool includes both the new Brewers first baseman and the old Brewers first baseman. Justin Smoak hasn't been able to replicate a breakout 2017 with the Blue Jays, but a switch-hitting power hitter with plate discipline is always good to have around. Jesus Aguilar's own unsustainable breakout came in 2018, and his fall from grace saw him get traded to the Rays at the 2019 deadline, and then picked up on waivers by the cross-state Marlins this winter. Speaking of the Marlins, they also picked up middle infielder Jonathan Villar, after the Orioles let their top fantasy-scoring player go via the waiver wire. He's followed on the second base depth chart by a couple of intriguing possibilities: Jurickson Profar was traded from the A's to the Padres after failing to capitalize on his own 2018 breakout with Texas, while Eric Sogard (another former Athletic) found a statistically unsustainable power stroke in 2019 (who here is a believer in exit velocity?), but the Brewers brought him back into the fold as part of their infield mix.

Speaking of second base, the Reds signed Mike Moustakas to play there, giving the longtime third baseman the type of deal that he has arguably deserved during the last two offseasons. However, if I was building a lineup out of these players, I would put Moose at his customary position, given the depth of second base talent, and my complete lack of faith in Ryon Healy's ability to hold down the hot corner. It's questionable how much the Giants expect Zack Cozart to play at any position next year, as his trade was effectively a way for the Angels to clear some salary space for Anthony Rendon. Didi Gregorius was one of the handful of players whose astrological sign I had been misrepresenting over the past several years, but whatever his star sign, he'll be locking down the shortstop spot in Philadelphia, pushing his erroneous former Pisces teammate Jean Segura over to second base. Luis Urias was one of four players involved in the above-mentioned Milwaukee-San Diego trade, and he'll battle with Sogard for playing time in the Brewers infield. Jake Cronenworth didn't make it into the show in 2019 (the blue highlight in his Bats/Throws column indicates he was a non-roster invitee to Spring Training last year), and we'll explore the trade that sent him from the Rays to the Padres...


...now! Tommy Pham had a better overall season than Hunter Renfroe in 2019, but as an aging player whose earnings are slated to approach his actual value via the arbitration process, he was not the type of asset that a penny-pinching organization like the Rays prefers to keep on hand. Thus Tampa Bay sent Pham and Cronenworth to San Diego in exchange for younger, cheaper outfielder Hunter Renfroe and a pair of prospects. Such is life! Speaking of outfielders acquired by the Padres, Trent Grisham went over to southern California in the twice-above-mentioned Brewers-Padres deal, where he'll join a somehow still-crowded outfield picture in San Diego. A pair of lefty-swinging corner bats also changed hands via free agency, with longtime Angels right fielder Kole Calhoun landing with the Diamondbacks, and journeyman Corey Dickerson settling in Miami (at least until the 2020 trade deadline. 

While Avisail Garcia got some time in center field with the Rays last year, his true calling is as a corner outfielder, where he'll play opposite Christian Yelich in Milwaukee next year. The Mets picked up Jake Marisnick in a trade with the Astros to replace their former glove-first fourth outfielder Juan Lagares. But the biggest fish in the center field pond is Japanese import Shogo Akiyama, whose deal with the Reds hasn't yet been formally announced. As far as catcher is concerned, Omar Narvaez, Milwaukee's replacement for Yasmani Grandal is also the top catcher acquired by an NL team this winter... the top hitting catcher, at least. And the fact that he's left-handed makes him a perfect platoon partner with new Braves backstop Travis d'Arnaud. As with the American League, possible backup backstops abound: former A's folk hero Stephen Vogt follows MadBum from SF to ARI, Francisco Cervelli is going to try to stave off concussion-related retirement for one more year in Miami, and Luke Maile still plays Major League Baseball.


So that's how the two leagues' All-Acquired teams look as the calendar flips to 2020. In short: the AL had the more splashy acquisitions, while the NL has the edge in terms of depth (especially in the bullpen and the outfield). These rosters will surely look a lot different by the time MLB 20: The Show hits shelves in the spring, so we won't get to see an accurate simulation with these players as headliners. But it's fun to take stock of the baseball roster landscape, even as the worldwide political landscape hurtles into scarier and more unstable territory day by day...