Thoughts About Super Tuesday 2020

In early 2016, Donald Trump was gaining momentum in the Republican presidential primary. Trump presented himself as an outsider who could shake things up: with no political experience whatsoever, he was known as a charismatic yet mostly failed business tycoon and a moderately successful reality TV star. By all appearances, the Republican establishment was not happy with Trump’s presence in the presidential race: for example, take Lindsey Graham’s oft-retweeted warning:

If we nominate Trump, we will get destroyed.......and we will deserve it.

— Lindsey Graham (@LindseyGrahamSC) May 3, 2016

However, Trump’s message apparently appealed to voters, he got the nomination, and the Republicans were not destroyed (except in the sense of being morally compromised, but that’s nothing new for politicians).

I am not a practiced political thinker, but I have developed two primary theories for how this happened. The first theory is that the GOP machine truly attempted to block Trump, but was too inept to stop his rise. Maybe everyone in the party who criticized and opposed Trump did so genuinely, but whether because of excessive pride or inadequate dealmaking efforts, nobody was able to do anything about him. The second theory is more sinister: Republicans secretly supported Trump all along, and they deliberately railed against him publicly to bolster his "renegade" image. Proponents of this theory would likely refer to the above-quoted tweet as an instance of Lindsey Graham playing "4D chess," but I prefer to call it good old-fashioned deception. Again, nothing new where politicians are concerned.

Fast forward to late February 2020. Bernie Sanders was gaining momentum in the Democratic presidential primary. Like Trump, Bernie was seen as an outsider in his party, but unlike Trump - whose message was based on hate, fear, and mockery - Bernie espoused progressive policies like universal healthcare, fair taxation of the super wealthy, and combating the climate crisis. Also, in an across-the-aisle mirror of the 2016 Republican primary, the Democratic establishment was nervous of Bernie's rise, as his socialist leanings threatened to upend how the political machine traditionally operated. But unlike the GOP in 2016, moderate Democrats were able to successfully consolidate against Bernie and hand him a defeat on Super Tuesday.

I've heard a lot of talk about how support for Joe Biden comes from the belief that he's the only candidate who can win the general election against Trump in November. But to me (and according to the polls that I've read), that rings patently false. We've been sold the "vote for you HAVE TO vote for in November" idea back in 2016, and yet Hillary Clinton lost the election to Trump. It's not that voters are just petulantly deciding to stay home because their favorite candidate isn't on the ballot; it's that many voters simply have no faith that the political party establishment - the one that determines which candidate you HAVE TO vote for - knows what it takes to win.

The fact is that Bernie has the very same "outsider" status and outspoken persona that helped Trump achieve power in his own party. And yet the Democratic party brass are not embracing this strategy that proved successful for their opponents, choosing to rally behind the established party figurehead. To me, this strategy has less to do with "electability" and more to do with a fear of progressive ideas that I've seen best expressed in this tweet by Nando Vila:

The Democratic Party is more committed to stopping mild social democracy than to stopping fascism. They would rather lose to Trump than give the citizens of this dying, decrepit empire the same basic rights the average European citizen takes for granted.

— Nando (@nandorvila) March 3, 2020

Do I think Joe Biden would make a better president than Donald Trump? Absolutely. Do I think a Biden presidency would usher in the types of changes that our country needs to adequately support the middle class and reverse the seemingly inevitable climate disaster our world is facing? Not as presently presented. And certainly not more than the presidency of a progressive like Sanders or Elizabeth Warren (who was consistently the most capable and prepared candidate in the Democratic field, but institutional sexism and misogyny is a subject for another post).

That said, I would happily* vote for Biden in November, IF I thought he had the best chance to beat Trump. The thing is, I haven't seen any evidence that Biden is the more "electable" candidate, which makes the actions of the Democrats that much more confusing. I will for sure vote for any candidate running against Trump, and a lot can change between now and November. But as of now, these are some reasons why Super Tuesday 2020 has left me feeling depressed.