Showing posts with label Preview. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Preview. Show all posts

Tuesday, July 14, 2020

Thoughts About the 2020 MLB Season

As the owner of the Internet website "thoughts about baseball dot com," I'd like to officially express my thoughts about Major League Baseball's 2020 season. Namely, I don't think Major League Baseball should go forward with the 2020 season. Don't get me wrong, it makes me terribly sad to envision a whole calendar year without MLB action. Canceling the season would be devastating for everyone who depends on organized baseball for their livelihoods (not to mention mildly annoying for the billionaire owners, who would suffer a loss on their balance sheets, and STILL be left with more money than they could possibly ever spend in a lifetime...)

But here's the thing: everyone who would be devastated by the loss of baseball is ALREADY being devastated by the deadly global pandemic, which is still-raging (in the U.S. at least). And what's more, the very existence of baseball threatens to make the pandemic worse - even without fans in the stadiums, there's still a huge network of players, coaches, trainers, and essential staff (and their personal networks, and networks of networks, etc.) who are being put at risk. And for what? For a sporting event? Baseball might be our national pastime, but at bottom it's also just entertainment.

And while missing the season would undoubtedly be bad for baseball as a whole, who's to say what ramifications await us if the season goes forward as planned? How many players will get sick and have LASTING respiratory problems, which will affect the landscape of the sport through multiple future seasons? Because you can't have an effective baseball season unless the players are healthy and able to play. And the players can't be healthy and able play if there's still no end in sight for this pandemic. And the quickest way to end the pandemic is to avoid dangerous, disease-spreading activities such as professional baseball. (Coupled with basic human decency practices, such as wearing a mask.) The logic seems flawless to me, but I don't know, I'm just a Philosophy major...

So yes, 2020 without MLB would be Bad For Baseball, but it would also be Good For Public Health. And which is more important right now?

Sunday, March 29, 2020

Aries - Fantasy Astrology 2020 Preview

A few days ago, the Karmic Wheel began a new rotation as the sun entered Aries. This is of course the sign under which are born the members of the Aries Rams Fantasy Astrology team. I previewed  the last two signs with projected rosters of my upcoming Fantasy Astrology League (courtesy of ESPN), which are now all done; but two major things happened since then. First, the delay of the 2020 MLB season due to COVID-19, rendering said fantasy league irrelevant in the near future. Second, the release of the newest entrant in the MLB The Show franchise, allowing me to create fantasy astrology simulations with in-game lineups. What follows is an Aries-centered comparison of the player RANKING system developed by MLB.com (i.e. 1st is best, etc), and the player RATING system used by the video game's algorithm (on a 1 to 100 scale).

Aries is represented by the Phillies, mostly because of the uniforms' red color scheme.

First, the unquestioned top end. There are only four players who receive a 99 overall rating in MLB The Show 2020: Mike Trout, Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom, and Nolan Arenado, the latter of which is the Aries third baseman. (Two of those are Leos, but that's a post for August, when we'll HOPEFULLy have some actual baseball going on.) Arenado is ranked in MLB's top 10, along with the player who is #2 on the Rams depth chart, Alex Bregman. Thankfully, Bregman and his 95 rating are also eligible at shortstop, due to Carlos Correa's frequent injuries. Matt Olson has proved himself a powerhouse on both sides of the ball, and the fact that he plays a great first base makes it even more palatable for switch-hitting Carlos Santana to occupy the DH slot. David Dahl is developing into a very solid player anywhere in the outfield, but Lorenzo Cain is the best choice to roam center field. He may even be more valuable in the game setting, where his fabulous defense counts for something.


Now to the discrepancies between the game and the fantasy rankings. Jeff McNeil carries an 89 rating into the game, making him the top option to handle second base. His ranking of 77 also affords him that honor, but given his ability to play all over the diamond, McNeil's better suited shoring up an outfield that is weak beyond the Dahl/Cain duo. This is especially true when you consider former top prospect Cavan Biggio is ranked 94 by MLB.com, so you would want that configuration to maximize a lineup with the best-ranked players (actually HIGHEST-ranked in terms of quality, but lowest sum of of ranked players). But either MLB.com is overrating young former prospects, or the game is underrating them, because Biggio has to settle for a 75 overall rating. We see a similar situation behind the plate: Buster Posey was undoubtedly one of the best catchers of the last decade, which is reflected in his 83 overall game rating. Such high marks certainly aren't reflected by Posely's 2019 production (a meager average of 7.7 points per game), which helped him fall all the way to 303 in the rankings. Much higher (at 102) is Dodgers catcher Will Smith (not to be confused with the Braves (Cancer) reliever of the same name), and he's not that far behind Posey, with a 79 rating... but he technically wouldn't win the backup catcher's job due to Tom Murphy's 82 and Mike Zunino's 81. (To be fair, if this were a real-life situation where a manager REALLY trusts Posey, you'd want Smith to get regular reps in Triple-A.


I actually did some in-depth calculations to link astrology signs to real life teams. You can read about it here:
https://thoughtsaboutbaseball.blogspot.com/2018/11/astrology-signs-to-mlb-teams.html

One thing that makes a simulation simpler than a real-world-reflecting fantasy league is the lack of injuries... at least to start the season. Red Sox ace lefty Chris Sale is rated 93 in the game, even though his ranking had been plummeting: down to 144 when play was suspended on March 10 (Pisces season). This was due due to an arm problem that led to Tommy John surgery, wiping out any of Sale's potential 2020 campaign. Another former top Aries pitcher had a lost 2019 season, as two-time Cy Young winner Corey Kluber - whose 87 ranking almost exactly mirrors his 88 rating - is newly recovered from a broken pitching arm. Even though that was injury was the result of a comebacker hit to the mound, that reminds me of the injury notification from All-Star Baseball 2001 for the Nintendo 64: "Corey Kluber is injured with a br. arm." Talk about ominous...


I give each simulated team the option of carrying up to seven (7) starting pitchers, including two in long relief roles. One of these might be an especially good option for Kenta Maeda - even though he out-rates (however slightly) the likes of Eduardo Rodriguez and Jake Odorizzi - since the Dodgers have utilized Maeda that way in the later parts of recent seasons. Another big discrepancy in rankings vs. ratings happens in the person of Frankie Montas: the suspension returnee is ranked a strong 130, but enjoys just a 76 rating in the game.

If you've looked at analysis of Aries in past fantasy astrology seasons, you may recognize the lack of an important bullpen piece: a study I did after the close of last season suggests that Indians closer Brad Hand may actually be a Pisces. However even a Hand-less Rams bullpen is still an unmistakable strength, with arguably the best reliever in the game, Josh Hader, joining with breakout closer Kirby Yates to create a lefty-righty one-two punch. And it doesn't stop there, with top setup reliever Dellin Betances, potential Pirates closer Keone Kela, the upside of Edwin Diaz, and the injured David Robertson waiting in the wings.

* Baseball Tarot *
Many years ago, when I was going through a Tarot phase, I was gifted a Baseball Tarot deck, which replaces the arcane and occult imagery of the traditional Tarot with baseball concepts and metaphors. One of the most basic two-card layouts is called "Pitch and Swing" where the first card represents the situation you're facing and the second card represents your best course of action or attitude in response. Since fantasy baseball rankings and Tarot both share aspects of Divination, I've decided to do a reading as part my analysis of each sign's upcoming season.


As with Pisces, we have one of the Major Arcana as the first card - and we finally get a reading that doesn't include the Three of Bases. The Aries "Pitch" is XII The Slump, although it is notable that this card came out inverted. Aries won the Fantasy Astrology championship back in 2017, and no team except Libra has multiple victories (since I started this project in 2012), so a two-year drought would not exactly qualify as a slump, at least not relative to the rest of the league. That might be where the inverted factor comes into play: this card corresponds to The Hanged Man in a traditional Tarot deck, and THAT card has a very different connotation when inverted (since the man is hanged upside down).

The book that comes with the Baseball Tarot deck explains that when the Slump card appears in a reading, "You are probably in a rut, experiencing self-doubts or a wave of depression, confronting difficulties that just won't go away." I wouldn't say that this outlook applies specifically to the Aries roster, excepting of course ace pitcher Chris Sale's season-ending injury. But it's an understatement to say that the sport of baseball (and the world in general) is experiencing "difficulties that just won't go away" due to the Coronavirus pandemic. Seen from this wider perspective, the Aries "Swing" card, The MVP of Mitts (Cups in traditional Tarot), can be viewed as a guide to action for everyone in this global crisis. The "Accomplishments of the Heart and Spirit" subtitle references internal awareness, trusting your emotions, and compassion, something that we could all stand to focus on during these times of quarantines and social distancing. The book describes the upside of this card's meaning as "Success in an endeavor requiring love, giving, sensitivity, or intuition," which I think is a good way to describe how we should be approaching life right now.

As I mentioned above, Aries represents the start of a new rotation of the Karmic Wheel, thus the Tarot reading associated with this sign can be expected to have wider-reaching implications than some other signs. I've given up trying to assess what this reading might say about the particular outlook of the Aries Rams team in the potential upcoming season, choosing instead to focus on the bigger picture. With that in mind, I'd like to close with one more quote from the Baseball Tarot book by Mark Lerner and Laura Phillips: "The outcome will be influenced most by your ability to recognize and experience your feelings, tap into your intuition, and act with compassion toward everyone in the situation, including yourself." Easier said than done, obviously, but good advice to keep in mind. Stay safe and stay at home, everyone!

Sunday, March 8, 2020

Fantasy Astrology 2020 Team Ranks - Super Tuesday

If you follow my Twitter, you'll know that I tried just about everything to distract myself from politics following Super Tuesday, to no avail. One of my activities was to determine aggregate team ranks for my Fantasy Astrology Baseball League. To do this, I re-updated my baseball database with up-to-date rankings for all of MLB.com's top 800 players, then I determined projected lineups for all 12 signs based on those rankings, and finally I added up the rankings of all the players in those projected lineups to create one all-encompassing number representing the fantasy talent level of each sign. The results may shock and surprise you...




First of all, it's curious that stars from both the top and bottom ranked signs inked extensions with their real-life clubs just days ago. Sagittarius outfielder Christian Yelich, the #1 ranked player according to MLB this year, will continue with the Brewers for the next nine years. Meanwhile Yoan Moncada will handle third base for the White Sox for the foreseeable future, although he's pushed to DH on Gemini by the presence of Anthony Rendon. Also remember that we're dealing with rankings and not fantasy point totals, so the lower numbers are better. Which is why SAG having the top two-ranked players (Ronald Acuna Jr. is #2) puts them handily at the top of the list.

Possibly not coincidentally, the next-ranked team, Leo, has the #3 overall player Mike Trout (a consensus #1 player for many years before this). And the trend continues with Cancer finishing behind them with the help of #4 player Cody Bellinger (last year's NL MVP). The fourth team, Aries, has not only the #5 player, but also the #8 player... but you can check out more detailed analysis of the top-ranked fantasy players in MLB here.

Moving towards the bottom, of both this list of signs and of MLB.com's fantasy rankings, last year's champion Virgo falls to the bottom four largely because of a single position. The only ranked catcher in the VIR talent pool is John Hicks, who was a frequently-used backup for the Tigers in 2019, but finds himself third (at best) on Arizona's depth chart, and on a minor league invitation to spring training. This uncertain status leaves him with a ranking of 798 out of 800, dragging down an otherwise respectable lineup at basically every position.

While individual player rankings will change (some of them drastically) in the (roughly) next three weeks before the start of the season, but I doubt if the general hierarchy of fantasy signs will shift that much. But only time (and the injury bug) will tell if the stars will show stability or upheaval.

Wednesday, March 4, 2020

Pisces - Fantasy Astrology 2020 Preview

As the calendar turns to the month of March, we also march into the biggest month of Pisces season. Thus, Pisces will be the next sign I'll profile in my preview of the 2020 Fantasy Astrology Baseball season. For details on this particular preview series, please check out the previous post about Aquarius. Although unlike the Water Carriers, the Fish have had some Fantasy Astrology success, winning the championship back in 2015, unseating threepeat champions Libra team, thanks to the performances of Clayton Kershaw, Jake Arrieta, and Chris Davis. I'll bet you'll be able to guess which two of those three players will start the 2020 season on the Pisces projected 40-player roster:



Remember that the fantasy rankings displayed here are current as of Valentine's Day, which is why Luis Severino is listed here, despite the fact that he will miss the entire 2020 season due to Tommy John surgery. While it surely hurts to lose a pitcher of Sevy's caliber, the Fish still have a high quality rotation, with a top end of Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw, and German Marquez. The depth falls off somewhat after that, at least considering established starters, despite the fact that Anibal Sanchez was an integral part of the World Champion Nationals last season. But in terms of replacing Severino's production, the best shots might be pitching prospect Mackenzie Gore, depending on when the Padres see fit to bring him up to the Show.

But while the Fish have lost a starter (due to injury), they actually gain a reliever (due to some bookkeeping corrections). Players aren't supposed to change teams in the Fantasy Astrology landscape, but some research I did this offseason shows that I had misclassified Brad Hand as an Aries in previous versions of this project. Hand joins the Pisces player pool prior to 2020, joining flamethrowing Cuban Aroldis Chapman to form arguably the best lefty-lefty bullpen duo in the league. The bullpen is deep too, with former/potential closers Scott Oberg, Daniel Hudson, Sergio Romo, and Emmanuel Clase.



The same bookkeeping corrections that delivered Brad Hand also took away longtime shortstop Didi Gregorius, who is in fact an Aquarius. The incumbent shortstop, Jean Segura, will maintain his eligibility, even though he is moving over to second base in Philadelphia to make room for... you guessed it, Didi Gregorius. But as soon as Segura does qualify at the keystone, he'll move to make room for Blue Jays recent prospect graduate Bo Bichette. Speaking of infielders north of the border, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. didn't break out last year like we all hoped, but everyone believes the potential is there. Still, he might need to look over his shoulder at Miguel Andujar, depending on his role/production with the Yankees.

As far as locks for the roster, J.T. Realmuto is arguably the best catcher in the game. Jorge Soler, Nick Castellanos, and Tommy Pham should fill up the corner OF/DH slots, leaving center field for Michael Conforto, and creating a camp battle at first base between Trey Mancini and Rhys Hoskins. That leaves Kyle Schwarber to fight for a bench spot against two of baseball's most versatile utility players: Marwin Gonzalez and Niko Goodrum.


* Baseball Tarot *
Many years ago, when I was going through a Tarot phase, I was gifted a Baseball Tarot deck, which replaces the arcane and occult imagery of the traditional Tarot with baseball concepts and metaphors. One of the most basic two-card layouts is called "Pitch and Swing" where the first card represents the situation you're facing and the second card represents your best course of action or attitude in response. Since fantasy baseball rankings and Tarot both share aspects of Divination, I've decided to do a reading as part my analysis of each sign's upcoming season.


Divination really sucks sometimes. All the excitement after pulling one of the Major Arcana for the "Pitch" (XVI: Whole New Ballgame), only to be totally crestfallen when the "Swing" turned out to be the same card I pulled for Aquarius (Three of Bases: Shake-Off). However, this time it was inverted? That's gotta count for something? But back to that momentous first card: in the traditional Tarot deck, Whole New Ball Game corresponds to The Tower, a card that represents a period of great upheaval. While lightning striking a scoreboard depicting a dramatic comeback by the home team doesn't evoke the same catastrophe as the traditional art (where the eponymous tower is literally crumbling and its denizens are falling to their dooms), it's clear that a shocking change is in store.

The biggest change that comes to mind between when I made the above charts and now is Luis Severino's elbow injury. The book that comes with the deck features the bullet point "The Deeper Truth Comes Out" in its entry for this card, and in this case, the deeper truth could refer to the rotation depth that will be necessary to get through the season. Another change in the Pisces roster involves the departing/arriving players (i.e. Didi Gregorius and Brad Hand, respectively), which could correspond to the "Chaos Leading to New Knowledge" bullet point in the book. In either case, the important thing Pisces should focus on is staying grounded so as best to cope with surprises: either the ones that already happened, or the ones that are in store.

As for the inverted Three of Balls, I wrote about that one last time, saying that it represents "admitting unhappiness," knowing something is wrong, and realizing you must make a change. Obviously this dovetails nicely with the catastrophic change that's depicted in the first card, but the fact that the Shake-Off is inverted could represent an unwillingness to accept this change (kind of like the GM who says the team will "rely on internal options" in the wake of a significant injury). Or it could mean that an unorthodox, out-of-the-box solution is necessary in this case (e.g. the opener strategy). Either way, big things are clearly on the horizon for Pisces in 2020.

Sunday, February 16, 2020

Aquarius - Astrology 2020 Valentine's Day Preview

If Valentine's Day falls during Aquarius season, does that mean Aquarius is the most romantic astrological sign? I know that it's the first sign, both alphabetically and also according to the calendar, going by the months in which each sign starts. I also know that it has historically been the worst sign by far at producing quality major league baseball players born under its constellation. At least in the past two decades for which I have data: it might surprise you to know that both Babe Ruth and Hank Aaron are Aquarians, so there was a time when the sign had some respectability. But then again, so were Vladimir Guerrero and Roberto Alomar, and the sign still faltered in the late 90's.

Either way, the 2020 Aquarius Water Carriers (or Water Bearers? Is that better?) look to continue the trend of Fantasy Astrology Baseball bottom feeders. This fact is illustrated in AQU's current 40-player roster, as determined by me, the commissioner of the only known Fantasy Astrology Baseball league on the Internet. As a Valentine's Day present to myself, I reactivated the league and started work on the rosters for 2020, the first results of which you'll see below.


First, the Aquarius pitchers, sorted by 2019 position (i.e. starter or reliever) and then MLB.com's fantasy player rankings. The first thing to note is that the top two scoring starters from 2019 (Jeff Samardzija and Marco Gonzales) don't even project to make the rotation based on the rankings. I'm honestly not sure what the pundits see in Adrian Houser to make them rank him ahead of those two, plus recent injury-returnee Johnny Cueto. While he's slated for a rotation spot this coming year, the "Position 2" column shows that he split last year between the rotation and the bullpen, and it's not like he performed better as a starter - 4.57 ERA in 18 starts (80 innings), vs. a 1.47 ERA in 17 relief appearances (30 innings). But for a sign that's been as hard up as Aquarius has been in the recent past, they surprisingly have plenty of starting pitching depth.

The relief pitching depth, on the other hand, isn't quite as impressive, but it doesn't need to be, since the starting lineups in my league are set up with five starters and just two relievers. Some signs don't even have two dedicated closers, let alone two star closers such as Roberto Osuna and Liam Hendriks, so AQU is very well set up in that respect. Of course it all falls apart if one of them were to get injured or suspended for some reason... but that's the case for many positions for many signs around the Fantasy Astrology league.


And now the Water Carrier batters, which is where things really start to slide downhill. A cursory glance will reveal just two position players in the top 100, and just one in the top half of the top 100: Whit Merrifield, who will likely spend most of his time in the outfield to make room for Rougned Odor at second base. Joining Whitley in the outfield are two center field capable players, Max Kepler and Bryan Reynolds, with former platoon player Mark Canha able to step in. As an A's fan, I hope the top brass gives Canha more regular playing time, even against southpaws, as opposed to throwing plate appearances to replacement level lefties like Robbie Grossman (ranked a toothless 766).

2020 is especially interesting for AQU, since it will be the first year with their "new" starting shortstop, Didi Gregorius - the resources I had previously been using to determine birth signs had incorrectly identified him as a Pisces. It's not like this sign has been lacking help up the middle, with Dansby Swanson and Brandon Crawford as mainstays, but it never hurts to have more talent on hand. Speaking of supplanted infield stalwarts, it seems likely that long time third baseman Todd Frazier might lose playing time to 2019 breakout performer Tommy La Stella, super utility type Jon Berti, or even up-and-coming prospect Ke'Bryan Hayes before the season is over.

* Baseball Tarot *

Many years ago, when I was going through a Tarot phase, I was gifted a Baseball Tarot deck, which replaces the arcane and occult imagery of the traditional Tarot with baseball concepts and metaphors. For example, the Major and Minor Arcana are renamed the Major and Minor Leagues, and the four suits comprising the latter are changed from Cups, Swords, Wands, and Coins to Mitts, Balls, Bats, and Bases. One of the most basic two-card layouts is called "Pitch and Swing" where the first card represents the situation you're facing and the second card represents your best course of action or attitude in response. Since fantasy baseball rankings and Tarot both share aspects of Divination, I've decided to do a reading as part my analysis of each sign's upcoming season.


For Aquarius, the Pitch was Assist (Twelve of Bases) while the Swing was Shake-Off (Three of Balls). My first impressions of these cards are that they're both defensive (a fielder makes an assist and the pitcher shakes off a sign from their catcher), indicating that now might not be the year that Aquarius will storm to the top of the Fantasy Astrology league. Referring to the book included with the deck, the entry under Assist starts with the heading "demonstrating reliability," which in this situation calls to mind the lyric in the song "Heart" from the musical Damn Yankees: "The team has been consistent." "Yeah, we always lose!" One aspect of this card is understanding expectations, which, for Aquarius, are understandably low. On the other hand, the entry for Shake-Off starts with "admitting unhappiness," knowing something is wrong, and realizing you must make a change. Something has decidedly been wrong with Aquarius's performance, based on their place in the Fantasy Astrology standings... but what exactly must change to turn them into contenders will have to come to light over the course of a long season.

Thursday, February 13, 2020

Astrology 2020 Top Ranked Players

As of today, pitchers and catchers from all but two MLB teams will have reported to Spring Training camps. The Dodgers and the Reds are the last to officially summon their battery-mates, which they do on Friday and Saturday, respectively. Given we're taking our first tentative steps into the 2020 baseball season, I thought this would be a good time to emerge from my offseason blog-cation, and look at the Astrology Baseball landscape, through the lens of MLB.com's fantasy player rankings.

Below you'll find a brief analysis of the top-ranked player in each sign - or more, in the special case of a sign having multiple players in the top 10 overall. Next to each player's name, you'll see his 2019 fantasy point totals and points per game average (the latter in parenthesis).


Sagittarius
1. Christian Yelich - 2,709 (20.8)
2. Ronald Acuna Jr. - 2,674 (17.1)

This special case applies to the top two players in the sport, according to MLB.com, as superstar outfielders Yelich and Acuna were both born under the Sagittrarius star sign. Yelich won the 2018 NL MVP award, and a late-season injury was likely the biggest factor that prevented him from taking home back-to-back trophies. Acuna also got some hardware in 2018, earning Rookie of the Year honors, and he followed up that performance with three stolen bases shy of a 40-40 season. With such a dynamic duo roaming the grass, could this be the year where the Archers win it all?


Leo
3. Mike Trout - 2,568 (19.1)

For years, Trout hasbeen the consensus best player in MLB, which is why this ranking is a bit perlexing to me. He doesn't seem to be showing any signs of slowing down, as the 28-year-old won the AL MVP last year (his third time in the last six seasons), although he has missed  time due to injuries in each of the past three seasons. Honorable mention for the Lions goes to starting pitcher Max Scherzer, who was ranked #11 overall, fresh off a World Series winning season.


Cancer
4. Cody Bellinger - 2,849 (18.2)

Bellinger won the NL MVP over Yelich last year, not only because of his legit offensive breakout, but because he was able to stay on the field for 26 more games than the defending champion. Belli settled into right field for the Dodgers, but his eligibility at first base and in center field will help a Crabs roster that is not particularly deep at either position. One position where the Decapods are particularly deep is shortstop, where Trea Turner leads the field at #13.


Aries
5. Nolan Arenado - 2,525 (16.1)
8. Alex Bregman - 2,739 (17.5)

The only other sign with two players in the top 10 is Aries, where Arenado and Bregman once again comprise the left half of the Rams infield. Despite his displeasure with his current organization, a trade sending Arenado away from the Rockies (and thus hitter-friendly Coors Field) seems unlikely, so his park factors should remain in place this season. If Carlos Correa ever has a full, healthy season aside Bregman in Houston, it would be bad news for Aries's ability to maximize its best players positionally: without the shortstop eligibility Bregman has from serving as a frequent backup, he would have to take up the DH slot.


Libra
6. Mookie Betts - 2,560 (17.0)

Bellinger's newest teammate in Los Angeles, Betts was involved the most dramatic blockbuster trade of the offseason, which not only helped the Red Sox duck under the luxury tax threshold, but also delivered a second MVP-caliber outfielder to the Dodgers (Betts won the AL MVP in 2018). The only thing that would make this saga complete is if Betts pulled a Paul Goldschmidt and signed a long term extension with Los Angeles after spurning multiple attempts from Boston. Libra has a fairly large gap between their top fantasy talents: the next Scales players on the list are Betts's former teammate Xander Bogaerts and Cardinals ace Jack Flaherty at #25 and #26, respectively.


Virgo
7. Gerrit Cole - 3,148 (95.3)

Before the Astros became mired in the infamous sign-stealing scandal, they had to watch arguably their best pitcher Cole depart for the Yankees, who forked over the largest ever contract for a pitcher in free agency to land the 2019 Cy Young award runner-up. Cole's durability (he made at least 32 starts in four of the last five seasons) and ability to miss bats (he led the AL with 326 strikeouts and 13.8 K/9) will be welcome for a New York team that saw a record number of injuries in 2019. Next after Cole on the Maidens list of top players is Atlanta's slugging first baseman Freddie Freeman at #14.


Scorpio
9. Francisco Lindor - 2,232 (15.6)

Like Betts, Lindor has shown no willingness to engage his current club in extension talks, so it's not unreasonable to predict that the Indians will ship him to another team sometime between now and the end of the 2021 season, his final year of team control. The switch hitter known as "Mr. Smile" will continue to lead the way for both the Tribe and the Scorpions with his electric style of play. In perhaps the worst positional logjam in the Astrology Baseball landscape, Scorpio's top two players are shortstops: Colorado's Trevor Story follows Lindor closely at #12.


Pisces
10. Justin Verlander - 3,235 (95.1)

Houston Astros teammates Verlander and Cole put up nearly identical numbers in the 2019 season, but it was  the veteran J-V who came away with second Cy Young award (the other was in 2011), while the Cole Train had to content himself with a huge bag full of money. Verlander turns 37 years old in a week, but he'll be counted on to lead a Houston staff and change the narrative from investigations into cheating to winning ballgames. His co-ace on the Fish for years has been Clayton Kershaw, although the Dodgers lefty has fallen on some inconsistent times as he approaches his early-mid 30's, dropping all the way to #42 in the rankings.


Gemini
15. Jacob deGrom - 2,495 (77.9)
16. Anthony Rendon - 2,673 (18.3)

The first of the signs to not have a player in the top 10, Gemini nevertheless has a very strong one-two punch in back-to-back NL Cy Young award winner deGrom and Mike Trout's newest supporting cast member Rendon. Both will play for their current real-world teams for the foreseeable future, as deGrom signed a five-year extension (plus an option) with the Mets prior to last year, and Rendon got a massive seven-year free agent deal to play in Anaheim.


Taurus
18. Jose Altuve - 1,915 (15.4)

I guess allegations of using an electronic buzzer to receive signs from his teammates didn't affect Altuve's fantasy standing, as the diminutive second baseman still finds himself ranked within the top 20. That was absolutely an unfair dig, as Altuve has been one of the best hitters in the sport long before the shadow of scandal darkened Houston's doorstep, even winning the MVP award in 2017, the year that the trash can scheme reached its zenith... wait a minute... maybe that dig wasn't so unfair after all! Looking down the Bulls roster, we have Aaron Judge next at #30, who won Rookie of the Year the same year that Altuve took home his MVP.


Capricorn
31. Fernando Tatis Jr. - 1,437 (17.1)

The son of the former major league third baseman with the same name never really got much Rookie of the Year consideration due to an injury-shortened debut season - Tatis Jr. only managed 84 games, despite the fact that the Padres bucked the service time manipulation trend and put him on the active roster to start the year. Unfortunately, the Mets used the same strategy with Sagittarius slugger Pete Alonso, and he went on to set the rookie record for home runs in a season. Next on the Goats hierarchy is Tatis's double play partner Ozzie Albies at #38.


Aquarius
49. Whit Merrifield - 2,154 (13.2)

Bringing up the rear, we have the always-hapless Aquarius, which has just one player in the top 50. Whit Merrifield is a tremendously talented player, with some versatility built in, but experienced fantasy drafters wouldn't pick him until the fourth or fifth round. Jose Abreu is next at #60, but neither is the type of player around whom you'd want to build a team. On an interesting historical note, this year I learned that not only are baseball legends Babe Ruth and Hank Aaron both Aquarians, but their birthdays are one day apart! (One calendar day, that is - Hammerin' Hank was born the day before the Babe's 39th birthday.) While the 2019 Water Carriers don't look too exciting, Aquarian baseball fans can look at this fact and dream of a time when their sign will once again rule the Astrological diamond.

Sunday, December 22, 2019

Star Wars: The Story of the Films So Far


As my wife and I contemplated seeing the latest Star War tonight, she says, "Sure, but I won't have any idea what's going on."

"That's OK, I'll tell you," I respond. But then started wondering at what a truly daunting task that was. Here's what I came up with:

* Star Wars: Episode 4 (1977) 

Back when it was released, it didn't have the subtitle "A New Hope," because they didn't flipping know that there were gonna be eight more of these things. It describes the conflict between the Empire, the evil rulers of the galaxy, and the Rebellion, who are fighting against them. Princess Leia is on a secret Rebel mission, but about to be caught by Darth Vader, the top enforcer for the Empire. At the last minute, she entrusts two droids, R2-D2 and C-3PO, with the maguffin: information about a secret Imperial weapon called the Death Star.

Artoo and Threepio head to a nearby desert planet to look for help - specifically an old ally Obi-Wan Kenobi. Instead, the droids run into Luke Skywalker, an orphan farmer who is a friend of "Ben" Kenobi, and takes them to him. Obi-Wan explains that R2 has important information about a big time Rebel mission, which Old Ben can't do himself, so he recruits Luke into joining him... but only after Imerpial troops slaughter Luke's family.

Luke and Obi-Wan enlist the help of Han Solo, a pilot/smuggler, and his first mate Chewbacca, who take them to their destination on their ship, the Millennium Falcon. The gang complete a daring rescue of Princess Leia, but Obi-Wan sacrifices himself in the process, throwing a lightsaber fight against Darth. Luke leads a heroic charge to destroy the Death Star and that's the end of movie number one.

* Episode 5: The Empire Strikes Back (1980)

Some time later, the Empire discovers the new Rebel base, and our heroes are forced to evacuate. Luke follows a message from the ghost of Obi-Wan, and heads to meet up with Jedi Master Yoda, to learn the ways of the Force. Meanwhile, Han, Leia, Chewie, and 3PO are chased by Darth Vader to Cloud City, where Han seeks shelter with his friend Lando Calrissian. However, Lando makes a deal with Darth, and betrays his friends.

Luke, using his new Jedi Divination powers, gets visions of Han and Leia in trouble. He recklessly heads off to help them, against the wishes of Yoda and Ben's ghost, and is too late to help them anyway. Han gets frozen in carbonite and sold to the bounty hunter Boba Fett, but Lando double crosses Vader in order to help Leia and Chewie escape. Luke confronts Vader, who defeats our hero in a lightsaber duel, and then delivers the big reveal: "I am your father!"

* Episode 6: The Return of the Jedi (1983)

Frozen Han is in the custody of Jabba the Hutt, the gang launches a daring rescue mission, and that's all we need to say about that. Luke returns to Yoda to talk about the new shit that has come to light, Yoda confirms that Darth is Luke's dad, then dies. Later, the ghost of Obi-Wan explains that Vader used to be his student, Anakin Skywalker, who turned to the dark side. Then he delivers another big reveal: that Leia is Luke's twin sister!

Luke gives Leia the news while they're both on a mission to destroy... you guessed it, another Death Star. (They've already run out of ideas by the third movie, and there's six more coming!?) Luke surrenders and tries to convince Vader to abandon the dark side, but Vader turns him over to his boss, the Emperor. He reveals that the whole thing with the Death Star II was a trap to lure the rebels in, and to make Luke watch while they get destroyed!

However, Leia befriends the cuddly Ewoks, who help the Rebels turn the tides and defeat the Imperial army. Meanwhile, Luke almost succumbs to his anger, and defeats Darth in a duel. However, he makes his Wisdom saving throw, and refuses to turn to the dark side. The Emperor then goes to plan B, attacking Luke with force lightning! Vader, seeing his boss about to kill his son, lifts up the Emperor and tosses him off a railing, presumably to his death. Darth has a touching moment of redemption with Luke, who then burns his old armor on a pyre.

* Episode 1: The Phantom Menace (1999)

Probably about 30 years before the events of ANH, a young Obi-Wan and his boss Qui-Gon Jin are on some diplomatic mission for the Republic. They help the local Queen, Padme Amidala, who is disguised as one of her handmaidens, escape from an invasion, but end up stranded on Tatooine, the same desert planet where we met Luke in Episode 4. Qui-Gon meets young slave Anakin Skywalker (who in the movies is like nine, but the story probably would have made more sense if he was closer to 15), and finds that Anakin is very strong with the Force (and let's leave it at that).

They escape and go to the Republic's homeworld, where Padme fails to get support for her planet. At the same time, the Jedis take Anakin to the Jedi headquarters, where Qui-Gon requests to take on Anakin as an apprentice. Yoda refuses, however, saying that Anakin has too much anger, and is prone to corruption from the Dark Side. But Qui-Gon defies Yoda, and takes Anakin back with them to Padme's home planet to help stave off the invasion. Qui-Gon ends up getting killed by Darth Maul in the climactic end battle (who is later killed by Obi-Wan), leaving Obi-Wan in charge of Anakin's Jedi education.

* Episode 2: Attack of the Clones (2002?) 

10 years after Episode 1, Anakin and Obi-Wan are a Jedi comedy team that's down on their luck. Padme is now a senator in the Republic, and she's engaged in a power struggle with Palpatine, who is also kind-of-secretly a bad guy who we all know will eventually go on to become the Emperor. Anakin is assigned guard duty to Padme, and they eventually fall in love and get married, but not before Anakin sees his mother get killed by some desert-planet bad guys, and it messes him up good.

Meanwhile, Obi-Wan investigates a clone army, which is I guess was spearheaded by Palpatine? I think he convinced the Republic senate to authorize it by coming up with a false flag operation? Also the clones are based on Boba Fett's dad? Also Yoda is very good at jumping and fighting with a lightsaber, even though he can barely walk two movies later? I didn't pay much attention in this one.

* Episode 3: Revenge of the Sith (2005?)

Anakin starts working with Palpatine somehow - I think it's because Anakin was getting Force-visions of Padme dying in childbirth, and Palpatine reveals himself as the Sith Lord Darth Sidious, and convinces Anakin that the Dark Side can prevent Padme's death. Meanwhile, in the senate, Palpatine seizes control of the clone army, and uses them to kill most of the exisitng Jedi. Notably Yoda and Obi-Wan escape, the latter of which confronts Anakin and tries to turn him away from his evil path, but from Anakin's point of view the JEDI are the ones who are evil.

Obi-Wan defeats Anakin, bisecting him and leaving him for dead. Padme does in fact die in childbirth, after giving birth to twins Luke and Leia, whom Obi-Wan decides to separate and hide from the newly-crowned Emperor. Speaking of which, Palpatine resuscitates Anakin, puts him in some Darth Vader-model life-support armor, and breaks the news of Padme's death in the least chill way possible.

* Episode 7: The Force Awakens (2015) 

Some 30 years after the original trilogy, the political situation is exactly the same as it was at the start of the original trilogy, only it's the First Order instead of the Empire, and the Resistance instead of the Rebellion. We meet Poe Dameron, a Resistance pilot doing a super secret mission on a desert planet (but don't worry, it's a DIFFERENT desert planet). Poe receives a map to the location of Luke Skywalker, who has gone missing, and stores it inside his droid BB-8. However, Poe's secret mission is interrupted by a guy in black with a red lightsaber, with Kylo Ren playing Darth Vader to Poe's Princess Leia.

BB-8 runs into Rey, just like how R2-D2 ran into Luke, but this one is totally different because R2 was BLUE and BB-8 is ORANGE. Meanwhile, Poe gets interrogated/tortured on Kylo's ship, until he is saved by Finn, a Stormtrooper who has a change of heart. Finn and Poe escape to the desert planet, but Poe is presumed dead in the crash. Finn tracks down Rey and BB-8, and the three of them escape in the Millennium Falcon, which is coincidentally in a scrapyard on this very planet.

Han Solo and Chewie track down the Falcon and befriend our heroes, helping them escape the First Order. On a random planet where they're hiding out, Rey stumbles on Luke's old blue lightsaber, which is also Anakin's old blue lightsaber, but is then captured by Kylo Ren. Han, Chewie, and Finn are rescued by Poe, who it turns out is not dead after all, who takes them to meet the Resistance leader General Leia. There it's revealed that Han and Leia, who had the hots for each other and the end of the first trilogy, did get together. The partnership didn't last, but they did have a son together, whom they named Ben, but who subsequently changed it himself to... you guessed it: Kylo Ren.

Finn, Han, and Chewie travel to the First Order's superweapon, which is totally different than the first movie, because that one was called the Death STAR, and this one is called StarKILLER. They make a daring rescue attempt, with Han sacrificing himself in the process - he confronts Kylo/Ben and tries to convince him to turn away from the dark side, but Kylo's demons win out, and he kills his own father. Finn and Rey escape after taking turns fighting Kylo with a lightsaber (Rey does better than Finn). The movie ends with Rey showing up at Luke Skywalker's private island.

* Episode 8: The Last Jedi (2017)

Luke doesn't want to train Rey in the ways of the Jedi, because he tried that once before and it failed miserably. The result of this failure is Kylo Ren, one of Luke's pupils who turned to the Dark Side, just like Anakin did when he was being trained by Obi-Wan. Luke recognizes the futility of the same patterns arising over and over again in this story, and decides to break from tradition. However, Rey is convinced that she can somehow convince Kylo to turn back (much like how Luke tried to turn Vader in ROTJ), and goes to confront him.

Meanwhile, Poe, Finn, and Leia are being chased by the First Order. Poe is unhappy with Resistance leadership, so he stages a mutiny and sends Finn and his new mechanic friend Rose out on a daring mission to save the Resistance fleet... which fails miserably. Poe learns a valuable lesson about not being reckless, and to trust the decisions of strong female leaders. Back to Rey, it ALMOST seems like she convinced Kylo to come back to the light side, when he betrays and kills his boss Supreme Leader Snoke (basically the new trilogy's version of the Emperor). However, Kylo clarifies that he was just staging a coup, and now sits at the top of the First Order hierarchy.

Rey escapes back to the remainder Resistance, hiding out in an old abandoned base, but Kylo has them cornered. He's about to obliterate them, when who should show up to save the day, but Luke. The bad guys' weapons can't harm him, and Kylo eventually realizes that Luke was using the 7th level Dungeons and Dragons spell Project Image to make an illusory duplicate of himself, acting as a distraction to give the Resistance enough time to escape. However, the effort of casting such an advanced version of the spell was too much for Luke (its usual range is 500 miles, but Luke was on a completely different planet!), who fails his Constitution saving throw, and dies.

* Episode 9: The Rise of Skywalker (2019) 

And here we are! I've avoided trailers and spoilers as much as possible, and luckily the opinions I've seen on the movie are so split down the middle that I haven't even gotten a sense of what it might be like. Although I guess split down the middle is another way of saying 50/50, which is a pretty bad score on Rotten Tomatoes... But we were all fans of The Saga Begins, so I'm excited to see how the saga ends.

Tuesday, June 25, 2019

MLB All-Star Finalists 2019

Yesterday (Monday 6/24/19), MLB reminded us of the results of the first round of the brand new All-Star voting system. This year, in a departure from the tried and true "the player with the most votes gets to start" system, the top three vote-getters at each position from the three-week "Primary phase" become "finalists." Then, in a 28-hour burst starting tomorrow (Wednesday 6/26/19), voters will cast a SECOND ballot to select the actual starters from amongst those finalists. (Because MLB did not learn from US presidential elections in 2000 and 2016 how disastrous things can get when we depart from the popular vote.) While this system seems like a blatant clickbait scheme to entice fans to visit the website with the ballot not once but twice, it does allow for a period of concentrated player analysis, in which I will gladly partake.

Below will follow a position-by-position breakdown of the finalists for each position, organized by fantasy points, rather than alphabetically, as they are arranged in the above-linked article, or by total number of votes, as in this post where they announced the results. MLB's Instagram account already pointed out which teams have the most "Starters Election Candidates" (i.e., which teams' fans are most prone to stuffing the ballot boxes), but I plan to do the same with astrological signs, which are displayed in the far right column.


Would you believe that Aries starting first baseman Carlos Santana has never had an All-Star appearance in his 10-year career? That's even despite averaging 4.1 WAR per year as a primary catcher from 2011-13 and garnering some MVP votes in the last season of that span. He's got a good chance to break that streak this year, despite up and coming Aquarius fan favorite Luke Voit, who has surged since his trade to the Yankees. Over in the National League, breakout Leo Josh Bell got off to such a hot start that I didn't think anyone would catch him, but three-time Virgo All-Star Freddie Freeman has surged into the conversation lately, leading the race by a mere five points (although he does trail by 0.4 points per game). Thanks to Bell's power display, fellow Leo (and also a three-time All-Star) Anthony Rizzo has been relegated to fantasy astrology DH duty, and he should be an afterthought in this election.


It seemed a bit curious when the Yankees signed Cancer second baseman DJ LeMahieu during the offseason, since they already had a full infield. But injuries to Miguel Andujar and Troy Tulowitzki opened up playing time for David John, and all the two-time All-Star has done is lead the league in batting average (like he did in 2016 for the Rockies) and provide his usual brand of sterling defense. The out-of-nowhere breakout of Aquarius former utility player Tommy La Stella has been inspiring, and Taurus mainstay Jose Altuve has made the last five AL All-Star teams (plus one two years before that in 2012), but the choice here should be clear.

Despite his lead in both points and PPG, I might have a hard time voting for the versatile Libra Ketel Marte as a second baseman, since he's spent almost half of his 2019 as a centerfielder for the Diamondbacks. However, the same could be said of three-time All-Star Virgo Mike Moustakas, as he's filled in at third base for the injured Travis Shaw in Milwaukee. In fact, Moose just moved to the keystone this year after occupying the hot corner for the entirety of his career up to this point. Capricorn Ozzie Albies made the All-Star Game in his first full big league season in 2018, despite having lost his rookie eligibility due to a 57-game pot of coffee in 2017.


Burgeoning video producer Alex Bregman has held down both left side of the infield positions for the Astros in the past, due to multiple injuries to Houston shortstop Carlos Correa, and his shortstop eligibility comes in handy for the Aries fantasy astrology team (see below). Hunter Dozier's 2019 breakout has done a great deal to stabilize Leo's infield situation, as they were slated to rely on the oft-injured Zack Cozart at the hot corner according MLB.com's preseason fantasy rankings. It's clear that Yankees nation came out in force to vote for fill-in third baseman Gio Urshela (who didn't even make Libra's season opening fantasy roster); much more than fans of their rivals in Boston, despite the Red Sox having a clearly superior third base candidate in Scorpio Rafael Devers.

Nolan Arenado is the reason why it's so important for the above-mentioned Bregman to have shortstop eligibility, which opens up the Aries DH slot for a player with less versatility. Nado is the leading candidate for the starting job, which would make it five straight All-Star teams for the Newport Beach native - heading into the season he's also got four straight Silver Sluggers and SEVEN straight Gold Gloves. Meanwhile, the most accomplished Capricorn batter Kris Bryant has two All-Star appearances on his resume, in addition to an MVP and Rookie of the Year award, so he's also got a good track record to build on. Two Sagittariuses (Sagittarii?) round out the NL third base contenders, with Josh Donaldson narrowly beating out Justin Turner, although the former has had a clearly superior season in his first year with the Braves.


Red Sox fans clearly have been lackadaisical this All-Star voting season, as Libra infield captain Xander Bogaerts has had the best season amongst AL shortstop contenders, yet he didn't earn enough clicks to appear as a finalist. As it stands, Cancer Jorge Polanco (playing for the first place Twins) and Sagittarius Gleyber Torres (who shifted from second base to fill in for Troy Tulowitzki's newest injury) are fairly close in the race for point leader amongst the AL finalists. Meanwhile, Scorpio Trevor Story has had by far the best season of the NL finalists, yet he has received the fewest votes of the three. Not that Sagittarius Javier Baez hasn't had a great, if injury-shortened, year and it's nice to see former number one overall pick Dansby Swanson (an Aquarius) finally start breaking out, but the NL starting infield really should have two Rockies in the mix.


It's fitting that the consensus best player in baseball, Leo centerfielder Mike Trout, is also the American League's leading vote-getter. He should be on track to make his eighth straight All-Star team. Libra should also be well-represented, as defending AL MVP Mookie Betts and Minnesota slugger Eddie Rosario are the next two in terms of total fantasy points on the season. Speaking of the Twins, their fans couldn't get Aquarius Max Kepler into the next phase of voting, despite the German-born outfielder having scored more fantasy points than all but three of the AL finalists. Meanwhile, all three Astros outfielders are in the mix, despite the fact that Virgo George Springer has been out of action since May 24.


Two spots in the NL starting outfield should go to Sagittarius (and defending NL MVP) Christian Yelich and Dodgers star Cody Bellinger (who has taken his game to another level since moving to right field full time). Fellow Cancer Charlie Blackmon also patrols right field for the Rockies this year, moving from center for the first time in his career due to defensive limitations. Yelich's Sagittarius "teammate" Ronald Acuna Jr. has also had a great follow-up to his Rookie of the Year campaign, and it would make a certain amount of sense for him to earn the starting nod, as he is the only one of the top four point scorers who currently plays center field. Speaking of center field, the fact that Albert Almora Jr. is a finalist with over a million votes shows how egregiously Cubs fans stuffed the ballot box in this primary phase. I know he's a good defender, but if he makes this team after not even earning a spot on the Aries fantasy astrology roster, I might boycott the All-Star Game on principle.


It's pretty clear in both leagues who should be the All-Star catcher, as Gary Sanchez and Yasmani Grandal (a Sagittarius and a Scorpio, respectively) have handy leads on their competition. However, you should never underestimate Cubs fans, who have voted in a finalists at every position except second base, so there's a shot that Taurus Willson Contreras will "earn" the nod here. Up in the AL, it's amazing how deep the Gemini catching corps is, and that's not even counting Angels starter Jonathan Lucroy and former fifth overall pick Matt Wieters.


Perhaps the game's best pure hitter, Leo slugger J.D. Martinez has a nice point lead in the AL-only DH race, but this year he does have some statistical as well as intangible competition. Based on his last few seasons with the Giants, it seemed like Hunter Pence's career was over, but a retooled swing for the Aries outfielder earned him an opportunity with the Rangers, and he has more than taken advantage of it. Those two are followed by two Cancers, Nelson Cruz and Shohei Ohtani, a full-time DH while his right elbow recovers from Tommy John surgery. Notably absent from this list is prodigious Sagittarius slugger Khris Davis, whose .248 batting average so far in 2019 has raised his career AVG to the same amount, despite it sitting it .247 for the last four years.

Sunday, April 14, 2019

Game of Thrones Season 8 Preview

Which characters' stories can we expect to see most represented in the upcoming Season 8 of HBO's Game of Thrones? This is a question that could be puzzling some viewers as they prepare to tune in before tonight's season premiere. I didn't think to ask it to myself just now, but it so happens that I had been maintaining a story grid of the scenes throughout the show's previous seasons. Examining the frequency of scenes primarily featuring certain characters could potentially be used to answer this question. Here's the top 10 appearing characters, according to the analysis I've put together, color-coded for ease of reference.


WARNING: SPOILERS AND MAYBE SOME HALF-ASSED PREDICTIONS AHEAD!




1. JON SNOW
113 total scenes

Most of the promotional material I've seen for GoT S8 has featured the lovely mug of Kit Harrington's lovable bastard... OR IS HE? I mean, he is lovable either way, but his lineage has been thrown into doubt with some conveniently-placed flashbacks. He's taken over the Night's Watch, recruited the Free Folk, and made an alliance with the Dragon Queen (i.e. the queen who has dragons, not the one who acts like a dragon). His upward trajectory and unwavering good alignment make Jon Snow a powerful protagonist, but will he feel any ill effects from the dark magic resurrection spell from the end of Season 5?


2. TYRION LANNISTER
109 total scenes

I have been known to clown Peter Dinklage's accent in the show, since as a straight-up British accent, it honestly isn't all that sharp. But that was in my younger, more judgmental days, and now I realize that his character's not British, he's not British, and not even all the people who play Lannisters on the show are British. It's an accent that is sui generis, and either way, it hasn't distracted me from enjoying the quality of Dinklage's acting through the years. Also THE DINKLES THO!!!1
As one of the prime behind-the-scenes movers in GoT, Tyrion has never exhibited the traits of a true power seeker, and he seems more like a support class than a classic hero.


3. DAENERYS TARGARYEN
101 total scenes

Khaleesi was a fan favorite from the moment audiences saw one of Emilia Clarke's 12,000 wigs (am I getting that right?). Westeros history buffs are also more likely to root for her, pointing out that her family was initially in charge of the Seven Kingdoms, until they were overthrown by the Starks and Baratheons. Although, who did the Targaryens take over the throne from when they emigrated from ... is it Easteros? Essos? The point is, you live by the coup, you die by the coup, and not all rebellions are bad as far as the PEOPLE are concerned. She's got dragons, an army, a love interest, a good advisor, and DRAGONS. Not to mention her goal is clearly the throne, so she's gotta be considered the number one contender.


4. ARYA STARK
76 total scenes / 75 primary scenes

5. SANSA STARK
76 total scenes / 62 primary scenes

It cannot be a coincidence that the two Stark sisters have appeared in the same number of total scenes over the course of seven seasons of television... OR CAN IT? Digging deeper into the numbers in the chart above, you can see that Maisie Williams's Arya has the advantage over Sophie Turner's Sansa in Primary Scenes (where a character's story was the primary purpose of the scene, from my unprofessional perspective), as opposed to Extra Scenes (where that character's story was advanced in a scene that primarily featured a different character). Either way, they are firmly back on the same side, manning the first line of defense against a zombie hoard, and starting further than anyone from the location of the actual Throne. Not looking terribly promising for the Winterfell crew.


6. CERSEI LANNISTER-BARATHEON
74 total scenes / 63 primary scenes

The only true villain so far on this list, Lena Headey's character is close in scene total to both Arya (in total scenes) and Sansa (in primary scenes), which makes sense, given all the scenes the two of them shared in Season 2. But the question is, should Cersei even still be referred to as Baratheon? Her Baratheon husband is dead, as are all three of the children that she was trying to pretend were Baratheon; might as well drop the charade, right? At any rate, in the eyes of succession nerds, her claim to the throne is at best suspect, but let's not forget that possession is 9/10ths and all that. Given that Cersei has all the resources of both King's Landing, the Tyrells, and the Greyjoy fleet, Daenerys would do well to remember that a rightful claim isn't power, POWER is power.


7. NED STARK / ROBB STARK
53 total scenes

8. STANNIS / DAVOS / MELISANDRE
50 total scenes

I'm grouping these two stories together because they're basically finished. Sean Bean, Richard Madden, and Stephen Dillane have been off the show for multiple seasons now. It's true that Carice van Houten's Melisandre has kind of become a free agent, and Liam Cunningham has gone on some solo missions since Davos Seaworth joined forces with Jon (most recently to pick up another throne claimant Gendry), but neither really drive the narrative at this point.


9. BRAN STARK
46 total/primary scenes

Since going north of The Wall, Isaac Hempstead Wright has gone full Druid, all but removing himself from the concerns of his now former family, the Starks. Bran now goes by the moniker "Three-Eyed Raven," he can see different areas of the timeline, and he has lost all sense of social interactions. Scrying, ahem, WARGING is a useful tool for any adventuring party to have, but it seems like Brandon has taken on more of a support role.


10. JAIME LANNISTER
46 total scenes / 45 primary scenes

This MUST be a coincidence, that the eldest surviving Stark son and the eldest surviving Lannister son appear in the same amount of scenes... OR IS IT!?!?!?!? We've seen a shift in Nikolaj Coster-Waldau's character from being purely power hungry and serving his own self-interests (thereby serving those of his family) to having some concern about the greater good. Will it be enough to aid in the battle against the darkness, or will the knight's change of alignment be too little, too late?



Above is the series cast summary for Game of Thrones on IMDB, as of just mere hours before the premiere, showing that the actors with top seven episodic appearances are also part of the top 10 in terms of story scenes. Of the remaining ones, Samwell Tarly (John Bradley, 38 scenes) is still in the mix, heading back to the action from Oldtown with some pertinent information. Theon Greyjoy (Alfie Allen, 37 scenes combined) has embarked on some sidequesting to rescue his sister Yara (nee Asha, played by Gemma Whelan, and who is also represented in the gray-shaded scenes). I had grouped Littlefinger (Aiden Gillen) and Varys (Conleth Hill) together, but they only truly carry 12 total scenes, since their two storylines were closely linked to Sansa and Tyrion, respectively. The same goes for Iain Glenn's Jorah Mormont, who had appeared in solely Daenerys-dominated scenes for the majority of his time on the show.

I know people always say that past results do not guarantee future performance, but you  mostly hear that in terms of finance or athletic performance. Who knows if it applies to a narrative that's been designed for a particular resolution? Either way, now you know who's had the most, if not screen time, than STORY time in all the past Games of Throne, and it's up to you to decide how it might affect the unfolding season!

Monday, November 26, 2018

Ultimate Masters New Art Reprints

I am in the middle of recaps for the 2018 Fantasy Astrology Baseball signs, but due to the questionable political actions of the corporate side of MLB, I'm taking some time off baseball content. Instead, I'm switching gears to preview the upcoming Magic: The Gathering expansion, and looking at the new pieces of art in Ultimate Masters. The newest addition to the Masters Series has 49 new art reprints, an overwhelming 38 of which are getting a second piece of unique art for the first time. Another ten cards got their third unique illustration, while just one went into rarefied air with new art number four - and you won't have to search your library to find out what it is...


Demonic Tutor was so iconic that any effect that allows you to search your library in Magic is colloquially known as "tutoring." This sorcery appears in the very first set in Magic's history (Limited Edition, Alpha printing) with a depiction of a demonic bookworm by Douglas Schuler (sic), and a set of rules text that was lightly errata'd in subsequent printings. (Notably, the inclusion of "You may" in the original version means that, rules as written, this card has the potential to do absolutely nothing when cast.) The first of these was among the promo cards given as gifts to Magic judges in 2008, with an updated piece of art by Daarken, which again shows a literary demon, but also adds its tutor in the background... or is it the other way around? The first Tutor showed up again the very next year as part of the third Duel Deck: Divine vs. Demonic, this time with art by Scott Chou showing the original black planeswalker Liliana Vess in the moment of having her demonic contract drawn onto her skin. The full frame format of Zack Stella's art for Ultimate Masters is an example of one of the 40 promo box toppers that come with Ultimate Masters booster boxes.


The ten three-timers in UMA include at least one of each color, plus an artifact and a land, so we might as well go around the color wheel. Faith's Fetters originally appeared in Ravnica: City of Guilds, the home plane of Magic's current story. Although the effect on the card would fit perfectly in Azorius, the blue/white guild wasn't introduced until the third set in the block (Dissension), which means that Chippy's art could either go with Boros or Selesnya. This card also has a similarity to Demonic Tutor in that they were both reprinted in the Divine vs. Demonic Duel Deck, although on opposite sides. The new art by Kev Walker follows the theme of Brian Despain's art from DD #3 in that they both show a generic angry horned demon being restrained by bonds of light.


Unstable Mutation has the honor of being the oldest card to have its third unique art reprint occur in UMA, as we first saw this aura in Arabian Nights. I'm not sure exactly what the figure on the ground has to do with the mutation in its original piece of art, but it's interesting to note that artist Douglas Shuler is credited with the correct spelling of his name. Charles Gillespie's art for the Fifth Edition printing takes away some of the ambiguity - I find it funny to imagine the -1/-1 counters coming as an effect of the enchanted creature being strangled by their freakishly long tongue. The art by Slawomir Maniak on the Ultimate Masters version is the first piece of unique art to appear on a card frame with the new and improved "Enchantment - Aura" subtype - Shuler's art appeared on the Time Spiral - Timeshifted version of the card back in 2006.


I haven't run all the numbers, but Lorwyn is likely the non-Dominaria plane most represented among UMA new art reprints, with nine cards originally from the Lorwyn/Shadowmoor mega-block - although none from the eponymous Lorwyn set. Rebecca Guay lent her trademark watercolor-style artwork to the first printing of this card, from 2008's Morningtide expansion, which also included a Faerie Rogue token with art by Jim Nelson. (While Guay's same art was used in the Modern Masters 2015 reprint, that version did get its own unique token, this one illustratd by Dave Allsop. I can only imagine that we'll get a new one when Ultimate Masters hits shelves on December 7, 2018.) Like Demonic Tutor before it, Bitterblossom was also included in the Judge Gift promo program, this time in 2011, and with art by Nils Hamm. And also like Demonic Tutor, and as you can see from the full frame surrounding Jesper Ejsing's art, this one is also available as a promo box topper.


Red leads this group with three cards, so it makes sense to go chronologically. Seismic Assault first showed up in Exodus, where Dermot Power's art shows our heroes desperately trying to escape the artificial plane of Rath in the skyship Weatherlight, in what would quite likely be tabbed as a "Story Spotlight" card in the current format. It's interesting to note that the Ultimate Masters art by Adam Paquette appears to be an updated version of what's happening in the card's first piece of art, although this could be the newly-constructed Weatherlight from the recent Dominaria expansion. In between these two printings, Greg Staples created a more generic volcanic piece of art for the Seventh Edition printing.


Gamble was originally printed in Urza's Saga, one of four cards from that expansion set to get new art reprints in UMA - along with one more from Urza's Legacy and an additional two from Urza's Destiny. There's nothing story-specific happening in Andrew Goldhawk's art in the card's original version - likewise, Winona Nelson's artwork for the Eternal Masters reprint leans heavily into the Indiana Jones-style treasure hunting aspect rather than depicting a recognizable event from the Magic multiverse. The newest printing, with art by Even Amundsen, sets the card on the plane of Ixalan, as The Belligerent is the ship captained by the Golgari gorgon Vraska, as chronicled in the DailyMTG stories published during that block.


Through the Breach was first seen in the Japanese-inspired Champions of Kamigawa, with art by Hugh Jamieson depicting an otherworldly kami (i.e. vengeful spirit) emerging into the material plane. The ornate frame in the card's second unique art printing (accompanying art by Darek Zabrocki) is unique to the Amonkhet Invocations, the somewhat ill-defined entry of the Masterpiece Series that goes with the ancient Egyptian-themed Amonkhet block. In our third example of an Ultimate Masters box topper, Randy Vargas's art shows a scene from the Shadows over Innistrad block, wherein the Kor planeswalker Nahiri summons the plane-destroying Eldrazi titan Emrakul onto the gothic horror-themed plane of Innistrad as revenge against the vampire Sorin Markov.


Eternal Witness has perhaps the most utility of any card getting its third new art reprint in this set, especially considering that UMA has a strong graveyard recursion theme, at least in Black. Four years after she illustrated the card's first printing in Fifth Dawn, Terese Nielsen created another piece of art for one of the Friday Night Magic promo cards in 2008, which essentially depicts the same character in the same pose, just with slightly different lighting and shading. Chris Rahn goes in a decidedly different direction in his art for the Ultimate Masters box topper, showing the shaman actually using magic to reconstitute a creature, apparently using autumn leaves to stand in for any material that was lost upon its initial death.


Tarmogoyf represents the exact point at which tournament competitiveness takes a backseat to real world monetary value. You can buy a copy of the original "futureshifted" version of the card from the Future Sight expansion (with art by Justin Murray) for just under $100 online. However, the stamped foil version of the card from Modern Masters 2015 that Pascal Maynard selected during a high-profile draft tournament sold for nearly $15,000 on eBay. Given that financial windfall, it's understandable that Maynard would have picked that card (which uses the same art by Ryan Barger from the initial Modern Masters set) instead of taking a card that would have helped his deck. In his art for the Ultimate Masters version, Filip Burburan pushes the limit of how many teeth he can fit into the special box topper card frame.


I always found it strange that Gnomes refer to certain Artifact Creatures in Magic, while they are a flesh and blood race in Dungeons and Dragons. The distinction becomes less clear when you look at the art for the first two printings of Patchwork Gnomes: Mike Raabe's metal contraptions on the Tempest version are decidedly artifactual, while Jerry Tiritilli's illustration from the Odyssey expansion shows more anthropomorphic figures... despite the windup cranks and replaceable limbs. Filip Burburan's art from Ultimate Masters gravitates back to the machinery-focused look, while moving in a more scarecrow-ish direction overall.


And to round things out, Ancient Tomb is another card that made its first appearance in the Tempest expansion, this time with a quite spooky illustration by Colin MacNeil. The next time this double-painland got a new piece of art was from Howard Lyon as part of the Zendikar Expeditions, the first ever Masterpiece Series, which stayed on-theme by including only lands. In yet another UMA box-topper entry, Yeong-Hao Han eschewed the ghostly undertones of his predecessors, instead emphasizing the foreboding elements of the eponymous tomb.


I'm sure I will get back to baseball content soon enough, because I feel no need to punish the players and other employees of an organization just because of stupid decisions by the people at the top. It's also notable that MLB tried to reverse course, but only after intense public backlash. And who knows, maybe the top brass at Wizards of the Coast will make (or have already made) some insensitive political donations of their own, and I'll have to focus exclusively on Batman-related content. Which shouldn't be a problem in a few weeks, given what I have in the pipeline...