Showing posts with label Developed. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Developed. Show all posts

Wednesday, January 18, 2017

Developed World Series Teams 2016

When writing an email, have you ever MEANT to click "Save as Draft," but instead you clicked "Send?" Something very similar happened to me this past Wednesday on this very blog, when I wrote the title of this post about Developed World Series Teams 2017, then quickly clicked the wrong button before going about the rest of my day. Seeing as three people have already looked at this blank post in bewilderment over the last three days, I suppose I'd better follow through on what I was going to write.

Developed Teams are probably my second favorite of the various baseball rosters project that I do, finishing behind Astrology Teams, just ahead of Divisional All-Stars and All-Acquired Teams, and well ahead of Hometown Teams. As a refresher, players get assigned to a particular developed team if they spent their formative years in that team's minor league system. A team does not have to draft or sign a player to an amateur deal to count as that player's developed team, although I've found that that's usually the case. Nor does it matter with which team a player makes his big league debut, although I do stop each player's "developed clock," so to speak, as soon as he hits the majors for the first time.

I don't like to rehash this project too frequently, because things don't tend to change too much year over year. And while I last devoted significant time to the project after the 2015 season, where I covered roughly 1/3 of the league, I figured it might be fun to see how this year's World Series would have gone if it featured the developed versions of the participating teams. (Ignoring, of course, that if all 30 teams played a full developed SEASON, it's unlikely that the Cubs and Indians would face each other, but you get the point.) One more point: these charts were compiled at the close of the 2016 season, so any offseason transactions will not be covered.

So without further ado, on to the lists, batters first, organized not by a projected batting order, but rather by position on the diamond, from 2 thru 9 + DH (yes, each team gets a DH, deal with it), regardless of each player's primary position in 2016:


The first thing you might notice about the Developed Cubs 2016 roster is that, much like their real life 2016 counterparts, they are carrying three catchers. Well, the FIRST thing you notice is probably the sheer offensive prowess of NL MVP Kris Bryant, and the not-unimpressive performance of NL batting champ DJ LeMahieu. But if you start looking at the Position column, you'll probably notice the three catchers, which is easier to do when one such player (2016 rookie and #2 prospect in the Cubs organization Willson Contreras) is also your starting left fielder. It's also easier to do when you have a player like Marwin Gonzalez on the roster, who will likely take over first base from Justin Bour against lefties, but function as a super utility type the rest of the time. Speaking of that first base platoon, neither Bour nor Gonzalez debuted with Chicago, as evidenced by the * in their "Developed Team" column at the far left. But looking at their pre-MLB careers leaves no doubt which team they belong to: they each played more than 500 minor league games in the Cubs system, compared to just one season with the teams who acquired them and called them up for the first time.

Before moving on, a quick note on the color coding of certain columns. A Green field in the Position 1 column indicates that player had rookie eligibility in 2016, while Green in the Position 2 column denotes a new addition to my database prior to the 2016 season. If a player's Rank is highlighted Red, that means his rank in MLB's preseason player rater has been trending down over the course of the offseason. Even though there are none of the following examples in the Cubs' batters chart, a player whose rank was trending up receives a Green highlight, while a player who was added to MLB's list after it was first published gets a Purple highlight. And for the Name columns, a Yellow highlight indicates an offseason acquisition while a Cyan highlight goes with a player who was traded midseason. Color coding for the Astrology Sign and Contract Status columns should be self explanatory.


It's clear that this lineup kind of falls apart if Victor Martinez isn't able to suit up at first base every day. There's still plenty of pop without him: Francisco Lindor is a budding star, Jason Kipnis is a force either at the top or in the middle of the lineup, and Jose Ramirez had a breakout season in 2016 (while adding some defensive versatility). But Cleveland has such little depth that the next first base option on the depth chart is Jesus Aguilar, who amassed a whopping -7 points in the big leagues in 2016. It should be noted that third catcher Chris Gimenez has played a little first in the minors, but his bat barely plays behind the plate, let alone at the spot where you want your top offensive contributor. Yes, this roster also has three catchers too, but that's largely due to the aforementioned lack of depth at other positions. Plus, Tony Wolters has enough offensive potential to serve as a decent DH, while also logging some innings in the infield.


The developed Cubs rotation is a reminder of how crucial shrewd trades and timely free agent signings are to building a real life major league pitching staff: the only member of Chicago's World Series winning rotation who they technically developed (Kyle Hendricks) only made his way to the franchise via trade (from the Rangers for Ryan Dempster). Three of Hendricks's other four rotation mates pitched for the actual Cubs in some degree: Jeff Samardzija rather effectively as both a reliever and a starter, Rich Hill had about 1.5 strong seasons' worth of good innings over his first four years in the bigs, and Andrew Cashner didn't develop into a starter until he was traded to the Padres (in the deal that brought Anthony Rizzo to Chicago). Ricky Nolasco (who jumped straight from the Cubs' farm system to the Marlins' big club after his 2005 trade) wasn't really on anybody's radar prior to 2016, until he rebuilt his value after a midseason trade with 11 solid starts for the Angels.

The biggest weakness of this team by far is the bullpen. Not only do they lack a proven closer, but you could actually make a case that the pitcher who had the most successful 2016 season (Carl Edwards Jr.) actually belongs to the developed Texas Rangers. (Edwards threw more minor league innings in the Texas system, but he has more minor league appearances in Chicago, where he was converted to a full time reliever in 2015.) In fact, Edwards, Blake Parker, and swingman Chris Rusin are the only members of this relief corps who have actually suited up for the Cubs in real life. And hard throwing Tony Zych didn't even end the 2016 season on the Mariners' active roster, despite the somewhat antiquated tradition of September Call Ups. Unless some minor league reinforcements are on the way in the near future, this team could be in for some nerve wracking late leads.


Unlike the Cubs, 80% of the developed Indians rotation has played a significant role for the team's real-life equivalent. Veterans Bartolo Colon and CC Sabathia both debuted in Cleveland and combined for over 2,500 innings and four All-Star appearances for the team over more than a decade between them. Colon was with the team from 1997 to 2002, Sabathia from 2001 to 2007, and both saw their Indians tenures come to an end via a blockbuster trade.  Meanwhile, Danny Salazar and Josh Tomlin figure to make 2/5ths of the Tribe's starting rotation in 2017 after performing admirably in the 2016 postseason. And although well-heralded prospect Drew Pomeranz didn't pitch for Cleveland's big club, he was the centerpiece in the trade that netted the team Ubaldo Jimenez, who was a pitcher who pitched for the Indians for a number of years. Notably, one of these pitchers (likely Sabathia) would likely be replaced by knuckleballer Steven Wright (who spent five seasons in Cleveland's minor league system before heading to the Red Sox), were it not for Boston manager John Farrell's foolish pinch running decision late in the 2016 season. Wright's hypothetical roster spot would go to Cody Anderson, who would join Ryan Merritt in a long relief / swingman role.

This team is also pretty much the polar opposite of Chicago in terms of shutdown bullpen arms, as the developed Indians employ no fewer than three (3) relievers who closed for a significant portion of 2016. Cody Allen course serves as the team's current closer, assuming manager Terry Francona continues to utilize Andrew Miller in the multi-inning middle-relief role in which he excelled during the 2016 postseason. Jeanmar Gomez finished games for the 2016 Phillies, although no one seems to be particularly bullish on the prospects of him holding onto that privilege going forward. And Hector Rondon (a Rule 5 pick, which means by definition that he didn't spend ANY time in the minors for his new team before making his debut) was the Cubs' go-to for saves from 2014 thru the first half of 2016, when Joe Maddon suddenly lost faith in any reliever not named Aroldis Chapman. The weak link in this bullpen is clearly former Phillies minor league lefty Elvis Araujo, who is an injury replacement for the much more accomplished Zach Putnam.


So there you have it: developed rosters for the 2016 World Series participants. Who do you think would have won the Fall Classic if these were the teams that took the field last October? Sound off in the comments and stay tuned for more posts with actual words this time!

Tuesday, December 1, 2015

Developed Teams 2015 Series

11/10/15
I've revived my Developed Teams project, starting with each team that participated in the 2015 postseason. Modeling myself after the incomparable MLB Trade Rumors, I'm compiling links to all the articles in this handy post, which will be updated to include all the teams (hopefully, eventually).

12/1/15
As it looks less and less likely that I'll continue posting developed teams recaps outside the context of a larger simulation project, I'm amending my divisional list to include fantasy point totals for each of the teams. This could help narrow things down into a playoff situation so I don't have to slog through a whole season's worth of simulations. But maybe I'll do things the long way, depending on how well the progress goes with my Arkhkam Knight Let's Play project. For now, let's see if the numbers tell us anything interesting:


AL East

AL Central
  • Minnesota Twins - 30,939
  • Kansas City Royals - 27,483
  • Cleveland Indians - 24,993
  • Chicago White Sox - 22,402
  • Detroit Tigers - 20,343

AL West

NL East
  • Atlanta Braves - 32,273
  • New York Mets - 30,148
  • Miami Marlins - 25,937
  • Washington Nationals - 25,663
  • Philadelphia Phillies - 24,677

NL Central

NL West
  • Arizona Diamondbacks - 35,806
  • Los Angeles Dodgers - 30,888
  • Colorado Rockies - 23,990
  • San Diego Padres - 23,410
  • San Francisco Giants - 21,641

As of today, these teams all have corresponding rosters in my copy of MLB 15: The Show, ready for some simulations! Based on these numbers, we could project a group of playoff teams based on the 30,000 point threshold, which would allow us to see some of the top teams play each other without having to simulate an entire lengthy season. Even though these results can be skewed by either a) a few extraordinary players or b) a glut of depth that wouldn't contribute to a playoff roster, I'm assuming this is what's happening, because I don't think I have the wherewithal to withstand the rigors of a full 162-game season, even though all the teams have a representative.

This method would give us two league leaders from the west coast: the Angels and Diamondbacks. This is somewhat surprising, not just since neither of these two teams made the playoffs, but also because the D-Backs are one of the two newest teams in baseball, which means they've had the least time to develop players. But adding a perennial Cy Young contender like Max Scherzer to a roster that already includes perennial MVP contender Paul Goldschmidt (plus adding in the breakout performance of A.J. Pollock and the typical solid production from Carlos Gonzalez, a player who I was THIS close to rewarding to the A's, along with pitcher Brett Anderson) gives this team the punch it needs to contend. The only standout performers on the Angels are Mike Trout and John Lackey, who helped the team win a world championship in 2002, but solid numbers all the way through give the Halos a surprising advantage.

That means the ALDS would feature the East champion Yankees, who, as a 2015 playoff team, were profiled earlier in this series of posts, and the Minnesota Twins, who actually came relatively close to a wild card berth last year behind the last season of hometown hero Torii Hunter, who nonetheless figures to play a significant role on this team. The two NL teams to meet in the first round are the St. Louis Cardinals (another 2015 playoff team) and the Atlanta Braves, a team (like the Twins) without a single 2,000 point scorer on the roster (Craig Kimbrel and Jason Heyward help though).

That leaves the Wild Card games, which in the NL takes the form of a rematch of last year's NLDS between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the New York Mets. How sweet does a Kershaw/deGrom one-night-only event sound? Meanwhile, the AL Wild Card game mirrors the situation we saw in the NL last year, where both teams come from the same division. I already gave a sneak peek of how Seattle's fortunes might look, and I'm not necessarily tempering my high expectation for this club, especially given that King Felix can start the one-game playoff. But the power potential of the Rangers lineup means they've got a legitimate chance to go far, even if their pitching strength is more wide than tall.

Look for some combination of recaps with screenshots and videos in the near future, as I'll need a fix of baseball to get through this long and arduous offseason.

Tuesday, November 3, 2015

Developed Teams 2015: Kansas City Royals

Ladies and Gentlemen, without further ado, I give you the developed version of your 2015 World Champion Kansas City Royals! Would this team have been better off holding onto all of their developed prospects, or was the front office able to make the team better through trades and free agent signings? You decide!



Although I usually start with the batting order in these profiles, there's one player whose historic 2015 season jumps to the top of the list, and that's the NL leader in ERA, WHIP, and winning percentage, Zack Greinke. A first round pick back in 2002, the Orlando FL native won a Cy Young award seven years later for his original team, before being part of two high profile trades, first going to the Brewers, then to the Angels. In fact, the first Greinke trade points out an inherent flaw in the either/or statement from my intro paragraph, because it was that deal that netted Kansas City Jake Odorizzi, the number 2 pitcher on this staff (also World Series heroes Alcides Escobar and Lorenzo Cain). Sometimes shrewd roster moves lead to acquiring prospects at an early enough stage in their careers that the acquiring team can also be the developing team. Either way, Greinke and Odorizzi join two homegrown/current Royals, Yordano Ventura and Danny Duffy, to form a very formidable "playoff rotation" - even though Duffy was used out of the pen in the actual 2015 postseason.

The last spot in their "regular season rotation" comes down to a battle between three rookie left handers, all of whom have since left the franchise that drafted them. Mike Montgomery went to the Rays (along with the well-traveled Odorizzi and Wil Myers) in the megadeal for James Shields and Wade Davis, but didn't make his debut until heading to the Mariners in another trade prior to 2015. Meanwhile both Brandon Finnegan and John Lamb were dealt to Cincinnati this season in the Johnny Cueto deal, the results of which contributed in large part to the Royals' 2015 championship. In the bullpen, if Greg Holland can recover from his Tommy John surgery, he could return to elite status sometime in 2017. In the meantime, this club will have to rely on the hotheaded Kelvin Herrera, former Rays closer J.P. Howell, and former prospect Luke Hochevar for save opportunities. And let's also not forget injured reliever Aaron Crow and prospect Sean Manaea when evaluating this staff.

The starting lineup features a "core four" of sorts in super-clutch Eric Hosmer, dugout-yelling Mike Moustakas, World Series MVP Salvador Perez, and free agent to be Alex Gordon, all of whom were well-heralded prospects, and all of whom delivered on their promise. The highest upside position player to have left the team is the above mentioned Wil Myers, whose transition to center field will help create room in the outfield for another former Rookie of the Year Carlos Beltran. And if neither of their defensive skillsets impress you, don't forget about Jarrod Dyson on the bench. Speaking of the bench, one person who's not on it is Christian Colon - I opted for the more experienced Andres Blanco, who played in a career-high 106 games this year - but if Colon's World Series heroics lead to more regular playing time, I could see him eventually eclipsing super utility player Mike Aviles as the starting shortstop. Billy Butler and Johnny Giavotella both went to the AL West prior to 2015 and had disappointing and breakout seasons, respectively, despite the fact that their fantasy production wasn't all that different. It's funny how expectations, contract size, and positional scarcity work, isn't it?

So there are the developed team profiles for all 2015 postseason participants. I'll be continuing this series with no discernible order throughout the offseason, hopefully culminating in a simulated season using MLB 15: The Show. So until then, enjoy the hot stove season and keep obsessively checking MLB Trade Rumors for the latest news. I know I will!

Monday, November 2, 2015

Developed Teams 2015: New York Mets

While the New York Mets did not win the World Series for the first time in 29 years, they were one of the two teams who played in the last game of the season, and that's much better than most pundits predicted for this team, so 2015 can definitely be counted as several steps in the right direction for this franchise. Let's see how the Mets would look if they had somehow kept all the players that were developed in their minor league system:



If they chose to do so, this team could field the same infield that they used for the World Series, with old iron gloves Lucas Duda and Daniel Murphy on the right side, and shortstop of the future Wilmer Flores and "Captain America" David Wright continuing around the horn. But that's not accounting for the return of former face of the franchise Jose Reyes, who immediately slots in at the top of the order and the middle of the infield. Not only that, but he pushes Flores over to second base, allowing either Duda or Murphy to DH (while the other one plays first base), significantly improving the team's overall defense. Speaking of defense, it is also a strength of this outfield, two thirds of which has the defensive chops to play center field - while Carlos Gomez also has the offensive chops to anchor a batting order. I'm assuming Michael Conforto's performance in game 4 of the World Series alone earns him a spot in this lineup, but if you prefer experience and glovework, there's also defensive wiz Juan Lagares on the bench.

But the strength of this team, as with the real life National League Champion version, is its dominating young pitching. The entire playoff rotation of Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, and Steven Matz is present here, except I have Matz in long relief due to his small career sample size of only six starts. Syndergaard is a tough case because he was initially drafted by the Blue Jays and spent three years in their system before being traded to New York in the deal for R.A. Dickey, but he never advanced above Class A ball in Toronto and pitched more games in the Mets system. These four phenoms are joined by two 2015 Houston Astros teammates who helped their team make the playoffs, righty Collin McHugh and lefty Scott Kazmir, the former of which made his debut with the Mets while the latter was traded while still a prospect. In fact, this team could field a six-man rotation while still having plenty of long relief depth with both Jonathon Niese and Mike Pelfrey available out of the pen.

For the save opportunities, the developed Mets can trot out their real life closer in Jeurys Familia, who stepped up in a big way when projected closer Jenrry Mejia was hit with a pair of season-ending suspensions, and who should be able to bounce back after a couple of tough breaks in the playoffs. Joe Smith has been a good setup man for the Angels and Yusmeiro Petit has flourished as both a swingman and a dedicated reliever (despite never pitching for the big league version of the Mets). Overall this team features a solid if unspectacular and injury prone lineup supporting a historically dominant pitching staff. Tune in next time for the World Champion Kansas City Royals and then we can speculate on whether a developed World Series rematch might have gone differently than the actual version.

Saturday, October 24, 2015

Developed Teams 2015: Toronto Blue Jays

Through some smart roster construction, Toronto's front office created an offensive powerhouse, but their ragtag pitching staff couldn't tame the savage beast that is the Royals offense. The developed version of this squad has a very different look, but one that could still find less traditional or exciting ways to win:



The first thing to notice on this team is the predominance of excellent defenders. Ryan Goins routinely turned in gold glove quality plays in the playoffs and his middle infield partner Adeiny Hechavarria similarly turned heads in less meaningful games in Miami. Two of the three starting outfielders have the chops to play center field (Anthony Gose for the Tigers and Kevin Pillar for these Blue Jays) and they've also got one of the game's premier outfield gloves on the bench in Jake Marisnick. Yan Gomes has a sterling defensive reputation behind the plate to go with a solid emerging bat, and since this team has the luxury of two starting caliber backstops, Gomes and Travis d'Arnaud can switch off between catcher and DH. And they've also got enough quality backups (in addition to J.P. Arencibia, they've got non-roster options like Carlos Perez and Erik Kratz) to keep everyone fresh. In fact, the only gaping defensive hole is first baseman Adam Lind, but he's the team's best hitter, which covers all manner of sins.

More than anything, this pitching staff will rely on successful returns from all types of injuries and ailments to key players. Projected ace Marcus Stroman pitched like gangbusters after missing all but a month of the 2015 season with a knee injury. Henderson Alvarez only managed four subpar starts for the Marlins, but the year before he put up 30 starts of sub-3.00 ERA ball pitching behind an electric young ace (sound familiar?). Kendall Graveman ended the year on Oakland's disabled list and Daniel Norris was recently (and tragically) diagnosed with thyroid cancer. The only starter who is injury free is also the most mediocre, as Drew Hutchison severely underperformed his top 200 ranking prior to 2015.

There are depth options, such as veterans Shaun Marcum and Dustin McGowan, youngsters such as Sean Nolin and Matt Boyd, and replacement level types like Brad Mills. But the most intriguing option is Aaron Sanchez, who was used in the rotation early in the season, but then became the postseason long reliever of choice. If he stays in that role, Sanchez would join fellow rookie Roberto Osuna in the bullpen, the 20-year-old closer who I've nicknamed Roberto Poise-una for his staunch unflappable demeanor on the mound, even during intense high pressure situations. Brett Cecil and Sam Dyson had quiet but solid seasons as setup men, but the other two bullpen spots are pure upside plays. Miguel Castro began 2015 on Toronto's active roster with Osuna despite neither of them having any major league experience, but Castro didn't stick, and was later traded to Colorado in the Jose Reyes trade. Marc Rzepczynski is mostly on this roster because of his awesome name, but he does have a long history of being a quality LOOGY - however these last two spots could just as easily have gone to Ryan Tepera (296 / 9.3) and Aaron Loup (278 / 4.6).

Thursday, October 22, 2015

Developed Teams 2015: Chicago Cubs

After dispatching their division (series) rival Cardinals in four games, the Chicago Cubs were beaten handily by the Mets - they never even once had a lead in the four game sweep. But with a savvy front office ready to supplement a crop of some of the game's best prospects, the real-life Cubs could find themselves at the top of the NL Central for years to come. Let's see how they stack up with their developed counterparts:



The presence of four rookies at key positions in this starting lineup is evidence of how weak this developed Cubs team was until recently. Kris Bryant should run away with the NL Rookie of the Year award and should also get serious consideration in the MVP conversation. Kyle Schwarber has shown a seriously potent bat in his first callup to the majors this year, but although he was a catcher throughout most of his minor league career, the Cubs used him primarily as an outfielder (and exclusively so during the playoffs). Maybe management wanted to let the pitching staff throw to familiar receivers behind the plate in such high stakes situations. Either way, with catching options such as the well-traveled Welington Castillo, Rangers projected starter Robinson Chirinos, and non-rostered options Geovany Soto and Steve Clevenger, leaving Schwarber in the developed outfield seems to make sense. Jorge Soler showed a knack for postseason performance in his rookie campaign, and could develop into the next Cuban slugging sensation. And fellow powerfully-built rookie Justin Bour (both have 6'4" frames) has hit for the same power he showed as a minor leaguer in Chicago since being giving a chance to start in Miami.

The former All-Star Starlin Castro was forced from shortstop to second base in the real-life Cubs' infield by prospect Addison Russell, but he's only the developed Cubs' second-best second sacker behind breakout first time All-Star DJ LeMahieu. This means Castro could be shifted back to short, unless he is pushed to the DH spot by prospect Javier Baez. And that's not even factoring in fellow stalled but potent prospect Arismendy Alcantara. Either way, this infield outside of Bryant is filled with enigmatic characters with high upsides but short and/or questionable track records. But fortunately they've also got two of the most versatile and competent backups (Marwin Gonzalez and Ryan Flaherty) should things go amiss.

Things have an even greater chance of going amiss in the rotation, and with a significantly weaker backup plan. The rotation set forth above assumes the top two arms will revert back to the mean between their excellent 2014's and disappointing 2015's. Prior to this season, Jeff Samardzija was ranked inside the top 100 players in baseball, and the previous summer he was valued highly enough by Oakland to give up 6 seasons of above-average projected production at SS (the above-mentioned Russell) for just 1.5 seasons of the Shark's work. And Andrew Cashner showed top of the rotation stuff for San Diego in 2014, averaging an amount of points per game that would have placed him in the top 40 in 2015. But both struggled mightily this year, resulting in mid-rotation stalwart Kyle Hendricks to emerge as this team's top pitching scorer. This is not an inspiring staff ace, as I would compare Hendricks's production to that of a healthy Ricky Nolasco type, who's on this team, but who hasn't been effective in a couple of years. But the most unexpected 2015 bright spot in this rotation was Rich Hill's magnificent four-start stretch, which could possibly have earned him a major league deal this offseason after being inked to two different minor league pacts in 2015.

Rotation depth is not pretty, as rookie Zack Godley had some encouraging results in his debut stint with the Diamondbacks, but Chris Rusin looked just as bad with the Rockies. Maybe these Chicago guys should stay away from the West Coast. Although that's not the case for rookie reliever Tony Zych who had another great debut for the Mariners. He doesn't, however, profile as a closer, which gives him something in common with all the other relievers on this staff. The one with the most MLB experience is longtime Tigers setup man Al Alburquerque, but he's hardly ever gotten a chance to prove himself in late and close situations with only 1 Save (in 2 opportunities) in his 5-year career. But despite its inconsistencies, this squad has a lot of personality and a lot of talent, and I predict big things for some of these ex-Cubs as we move past the failed prediction of Back to the Future.

Saturday, October 17, 2015

Developed Teams 2015: Los Angeles Dodgers

In what could end up being Don Mattingly's final game managing the Dodgers, the only franchise that plays in Los Angeles lost one of the closest and tensest games in recent memory to Jacob deGrom, Daniel Murphy, and the surging New York Mets. Many of the players who contributed to that losing effort were developed by the very same team for which they now play, but many more weren't, so let's take a look at how the developed Dodgers stack up:



Let's start at the top of the order and examine the offseason trade that very well might have cost Los Angeles the chance to advance to the next round of the playoffs. The Dodgers top brass apparently thought Dee Gordon's strategy of slapping singles and using his speed to make a difference on the base paths was unsustainable, so they embarked on a flurry of moves that essentially boiled down to trading Gordon straight up for Howie Kendrick. That move didn't work out quite as planned, as Kendrick's late season injury prompted the acquisition of Chase Utley, who broke Ruben Tejada's leg on a needlessly reckless slide into second base during the division series, effectively poisoning whatever good karma Los Angeles might have stored up. Meanwhile, Dee Gordon won the batting title and led the league in steals for Miami. Another recently departed Dodger is Matt Kemp: he was traded to the Padres this offseason despite two balky knees, but ended up eclipsing the production of all six Dodgers right fielders combined in 2015 (they averaged 1,743 points and 10.8 ppg).

Among the other high profile members of this offense to have left Los Angeles, Adrian Beltre and Russell Martin made solid contributions in a Dodger uniform, making a combined four playoff appearances with the club and a combined $75.5 million on the contracts they signed directly after leaving the club via free agency. Neither Carlos Santana nor Franklin Gutierrez made their debuts with the Dodgers, but received plenty of minor league seasoning in the organization before both being traded to Cleveland for Casey Blake and Milton Bradley, respectively. Gutierrez had a very successful 59 games with Seattle this year after missing all of 2014, which (along with his sterling defensive reputation) earned him a starting outfield spot on this squad, while Santana is slated to play first base. If Gutierrez can't maintain this level of production for a full season, Matt Kemp can shift to the outfield, Santana could DH, and James Loney could slot in at first. And last but not least are the current Dodgers rookies - if you could combine Joc Pederson's first half with Corey Seager's second half, you would have a Rookie of the Year candidate to rival Kris Bryant on the Cubs.

At the top of the rotation, you could not ask for a better pitcher than Clayton Kershaw, but after the lefty from Texas, things get a little dicey. Hyun-Jin Ryu, another special foreign import case, missed all of 2015 due to injury, but he has the talent to slot behind Kershaw in that rotation when healthy. Nathan Eovaldi and Rubby De La Rosa both ranked near the bottom of Baseball America's top 100 prospect list exactly once, and they've filled out into decent mid-rotation talents. I put Carlos Frias in the fifth starter slot because he saw some decent playing time in his rookie campaign, but he would definitely have some competition from former rotation mainstay Chad Billingsley or current Dodgers minor leaguer Eric Stults. Edwin Jackson, a starter for most of his career, found a new lease on life in the bullpen for the Cubs and Braves, so he's probably not an option. Let's just say I'm sure these developed Dodgers wish that Hiroki Kuroda didn't move back to Japan to retire.

Kenley Jansen is currently the Dodgers closer, and one of the best in the game at that. He's set up by Shawn Tolleson who blossomed into the closer for the Rangers this year, supplanting Neftali Feliz about a month before he was traded to the Tigers. Pedro Baez is perhaps better known for unsuccessfully entering playoff games in relief of Clayton Kershaw than for being the 9th-hardest throwing pitcher in 2015, but he could very well blossom into a good setup man as well. One pitcher who's not on this roster but has a good chance to bounce back given the right circumstances is Jonathan Broxton, a former setup man and closer who made his way back to the playoffs with St. Louis this year. Overall, the developed Dodgers look very top heavy in all areas (lineup, rotation, and bullpen), but given the best or near-best case scenarios for some of their prospects, and this team could be a force to be reckoned with.

Friday, October 16, 2015

Developed Teams 2015: Houston Astros

Nobody expected the Astros to be contenders this year, but they surprised the world by nearly winning the AL West and then taking the defending AL Champion Royals to within six outs of elimination before snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. But the point is that Houston's rebuilding effort came to fruition sooner than expected, helped along by some shrewd trades and free agent signings, so we can expect this team to be contenders for the foreseeable future.



The three key pieces of this lineup that are also the backbone of Houston's real life lineup are Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, and George Springer, all of whom have the potential to be perennial All-Stars. The best offensive outfield alignment features the athletic Springer in center field, flanked by recent breakout star J.D. Martinez (whose 38 home runs are all the more impressive when you consider he plays his home games in spacious Comerica Park) and Hunter Pence (who played extremely well for the short time he was able to take the field in 2015 due to injuries). However, given that both Pence and Martinez routinely put up negative defensive WAR, it makes the most sense to use speedy Rule 5 pick Delino DeShields (Jr.) in the outfield with one of the aforementioned sluggers moving to DH. For solid fifth and sixth outfielders, look no further than 2015 rookies Preston Tucker and Domingo Santana, or if you prefer the lower upside veteran route, there are names such as Brandon Barnes and J.B. Shuck.

The spectacular middle infield and corner outfield logjam presents a problem of how to get switch hitting super utility man Ben Zobrist in the lineup, who spent the better part of three years in Houston's minor league system as opposed to just 18 games with Tampa Bay's before making his debut. Zobrist has played everywhere except pitcher and catcher during his eight year career, but the two spots at which he has the least experience are the two open spots in this defensive alignment: first base (17 games) and third base (9 games). But with Chris Johnson and Jon Singleton the next best options at the corners, Zorilla is going to have to learn a relatively new position - something that hasn't been difficult for him in the past. Another trouble spot is catcher, where John Buck would have to come out of retirement in order to provide Jason Castro a backup with any major league experience whatsoever.

After Dallas Keuchel, who should win the AL Cy Young Award this year, this pitching staff is a bit of a mess, but it's not without promise. Lance McCullers took the baseball world by storm with his Batman cleats and solid pitching in his first appearance on my database (hence the green highlight in his Pos 2 column) and he's joined by fellow rookies Nick Tropeano (seven starts for the Angels), Vincent Velasquez (seven starts and 12 relief appearances), and Mike Foltynewicz (15 starts for the Braves). Jarred Cosart and Jordan Lyles are former top 100 prospects whose development has staled somewhat, but the dream is definitely still alive for the Marlins and Rockies, respectively. And then Wandy Rodriguez and Bud Norris are both veterans who lost their rotation spots this year, but who could still eat up innings for an inconsistent staff.

All these pitchers will have to jump back and forth between the rotation and the bullpen, because the handful of full-time relievers developed by the Astros leaves quite a bit to be desired. Matt Albers put up the best stats in 2015, but Chad Qualls is the only one with significant closing experience, and Fernando Abad has proven himself just "A-bad" pitcher... WHATEVER I'M AN A'S FAN, I COULDN'T RESIST. The fortunes of this staff might change if/when prospects such as Mark Appel, Asher Wojciechowski, Michael Feliz, and Rio Ruiz come to fruition, but for now this staff could be a good opportunity to experiment with mixing and matching pitchers in a designated short start/long relief strategy rather than a traditional five-man rotation. Now I just have to figure out how to program that strategy into MLB 15: The Show for my planned simulations using these rosters.

Thursday, October 15, 2015

Developed Teams 2015: Texas Rangers

Both teams from Texas were eliminated from the 2015 postseason within hours of each other, but since the Rangers and Blue Jays played earlier in the day, here's a lineup made from the best homegrown players that came out of the Texas Rangers organization:



The first things to notice are that Texas has developed an abundance of both starting pitchers and first baseman. While you can never have too much of the former, too much of the latter can be a defensive liability, so let's talk about how to get them all in the lineup. Chris Davis is going to be the most talked-about first baseman of the hot stove season as he bounced back from a forgettable 2014 to lead the league in home runs in his walk year, but he's the most likely to spend the least time at first base on this squad. Not only did he play enough right field for the Orioles in 2015 to qualify as a fantasy outfielder (20 games), but if you turn the sample size clock back a year, he also qualified at third base while filling in for the injured Manny Machado in 2014. Even though Machado was healthy (and spectacular) for all 162 games last year, that doesn't mean Davis lost his ability (however questionable) to man the hot corner if necessary. Mark Teixeira was on his way to a season comparable to Davis's when he went down with a shin fracture in September, and he's also the most gifted defensive first baseman of the bunch, so it makes sense for him to get most of the work in the field when healthy. Mitch Moreland has very limited experience in right field (he hasn't played there regularly since 2012), so he'll likely occupy the DH spot for the majority of the time.

Second base is almost as equally stacked: Ian Kinsler is one of the best in the league, Rougned Odor proved that he has a very playable skillset, and there's also oft-injured superprospect Jurickson Profar waiting in the wings. The left side of the infield is spotty in that it relies on prospects that have yet to prove themselves at the big league level. Joey Gallo came up briefly this year when Adrian Beltre was injured, and played almost equal parts third base and left field (though not enough to qualify for either position), while the best option at shortstop is prospect Luis Sardinas who likewise didn't get enough games to qualify at either middle infield spot for the Brewers. There's also the curious case of Odubel Herrera who played primarily middle infield in his minor league career with Texas, but was used exclusively in center field after being taken in the Rule 5 Draft by the Phillies. Moving Herrera back to shortstop could be an option, but the lack of other impact outfield bats (the other three options, at least one of which would have to play, averaged just over 6 fantasy points per game in 2015) makes me question whether that move would be worth it.

Texas's number one developed starter wasn't developed in the minors at all, but rather imported from Japan; but since a healthy Yu Darvish would be an ace on most clubs (with the exception of the Dodgers, the Nationals, both Chicago franchises, and wherever Zack Greinke and David Price end up), he's simply too good to leave out of this project. The rotation after Darvish features a grouping of four pitchers with remarkably similar skill levels, at least where fantasy baseball is concerned: Edinson Volquez, R.A. Dickey, Colby Lewis, and C.J. Wilson all fell within two points per game of the 47.8 average between them. They're similarly stacked in the long relief department, where they have three more legitimate starters ready to take the mound. There is the injury factor to be concerned about - in addition to Darvish, who missed all of 2015, Wilson, Jesse Chavez, and Scott Feldman all ended the season on the DL, while Derek Holland didn't start pitching regularly until August. But just check out the depth this team has waiting in the "Developed Minor Leagues" - veterans John Danks and Aaron Harang, once and future real-life Rangers rotation hopefuls Martin Perez, Nick Martinez, and Chi Chi Gonzalez, and recently departed Jerad Eickhoff, who had a stellar debut for the Phillies after being involved in the Cole Hamels trade.

For the back end of the bullpen, Texas has Joaquin Benoit, who was projected to close in 2015 up until moments before the first game when the Padres made a last minute trade for Craig Kimbrel, and Robbie Ross Jr., who ended the season as Boston's closer, but will likely be relegated to lefty specialist on this team. Keone Kela had a solid rookie season for his homegrown team and Justin Grimm filled up some meaningful innings for the Cubs. And as for veteran depth pieces, they've also got former bullpen stalwarts Neftali Feliz and Alexi Ogando waiting in the wings. But what distinguishes this team is that all but three players on this roster - Rule 5 pick Odubel Herrera, reserve outfielder Jason Bourgeois, and long reliever Jesse Chavez - made their debuts for the actual Rangers, showing this organization's willingness to shepherd their homegrown players up to the majors.

Wednesday, October 14, 2015

Developed Teams 2015: St. Louis Cardinals

The first postseason meeting between longtime rivals Chicago Cubs and St. Louis Cardinals turned out to be the only 2015 Division Series that didn't go the full five games. And that small misstep by the Cardinals makes 2015's only 100-game winning team the next franchise to be profiled for my developed teams project:



Let's start at the top of the order because that's where we'll find the lineup's leading point scorer. Matt Carpenter doesn't profile as a typical leadoff hitter, but he started hitting for more power when he moved to the #1 spot, so I see no reason to change things. If Carpenter and Albert Pujols are the offensive leaders of this team, Yadier Molina is its spiritual leader, providing excellent defense and setting a great example in the clubhouse. Some young players who could benefit from this example (Kolten Wong, Stephen Piscotty, Tommy Pham) will likely be important parts of the Cardinals' real-life lineup for the foreseeable future, even if none of them project as superstars.

In fact, outside those three above-mentioned veterans, there's not a whole lot of star power in this lineup; despite Colby Rasmus's breakout postseason as the Astros' cleanup hitter, for which he'll collect a tidy sum in free agency. But the unspectacular lineup is offset by a consistently strong pitching staff. Each starter, one through five, has ace potential given the right circumstances, but none are without their significant question marks. Michael Wacha and Carlos Martinez both led the real-life Cardinals at points this season, but both also missed time with injuries. Jaime Garcia had the best 2015 of the group, but his inability to stay on the field is well documented. Shelby Miller had a dominant first half with the Braves but faded significantly down the stretch; maybe his lack of run support all season eventually took its toll.

But if (when some of the big names gst injured, there are solid backup options. Whether or not Dan Haren decides to strap on his glove for another year, and despite his propensity for giving up home runs, he's a great option for long relief / spot starter duty for our purposes. Then in the minors behind Joe Kelly (back from the Red Sox) is St. Louis's top actual spot starting option Tyler Lyons. I see a lot of similarities between this pitching staff and the one the Mets are using this postseason in that they have multiple starters available for quality work out of the pen.

These startets only make St. Louis's cadre of capable full time relievers all the more impressive. Very few closers in the game match up favorably against Trevor Rosenthal, including slider specialist Luke Gregerson (who spent the brunt of his minor league seasoning in the Cardinals system before making his debut with San Diego), but that's fine as he's also proved himself a dominant setup man in his career. The rest of the bullpen includes former closer Jason Motte (who rejuvenated his career with the Cubs) and future closer Adam Ottavino (once he gets back to action with the Rockies.) Even lefty setup man Kevin Siegrist closed a few games this year, in addition to leading the league with 81 appearances. I don't foresee a lot of lost leads for this club.

Thursday, October 8, 2015

Developed Teams 2015: Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pittsburgh Pirates are the next team eliminated from the 2015 postseason, falling victim to the brilliance of Jake Arrieta and the Cubs in the NL Wild Card Game. But it wasn't for lack of effort from a mostly homegrown roster, which many pundits believe is the best and most well-rounded in the sport. Check out how similar their developed lineup is to their current lineup in the chart below:



You'll notice that there's only one developed starting position player not currently with the Pirates, but Jose Bautista is a big time threat that can change the shape of any lineup. You'll also notice that there are nine position players in said lineup, despite the fact that Pittsburgh plays in the NL, which is because I've decided to include a DH for each team. I'm not shy about supporting the universal implementation of the DH, despite the protests from certain members of the Giants (which basically boil down to, "We have a good hitting pitcher, so it benefits our team not to change the rules"), and since I did all the work on this project, we're gonna do it my way. Meanwhile, Bautista will slot into the full time DH slot because the Bucs already have three pretty darn good outfielders.

The fact that this lineup is almost exactly the same as what they trotted out on the field for 2015 makes it one of the least interesting to analyze. I could simply refer you to an article such as Grantland's NL Central Preview (and keep in mind that Jordy Mercer would have a spot on this team if it weren't for Jung Ho Kang's emergence this year). They even reacquired third baseman Aramis Ramirez, who was originally a Pirate before spending most of his career as a member of the Cubs. Brock Holt and Rajai Davis are both great additions to the bench because the former can play litrally anywhere on the diamond and the latter's base stealing ability makes him a superb pinch hitting candidate. The only black hole in the lineup is behind the plate, where none of the candidates have even eclipsed 100 games in their respective careers.

The pitching staff is another story, and it's a sad one once you get past bona fide ace Gerrit Cole. Chris Young (the tall white pitcher, not the average-height black outfielder) had somewhat of a resurgence with Seattle last year, but found himself pitching in relief with Kansas City more often than your #2 starter should be. Jeff Locke has shown that he might be able to stick in a major league rotation, and while that doesn't sound like a glowing endorsement, it isn't. After those three, you're stuck with five options who started a combined total of one game in 2015 (Casey Sadler's winning effort on April 12, after which he landed on the 60-day disabled list. That's what the orange highlight in the Bat/Throw column is for, by the way - Tony Sanchez's blue means he is on the 40-man roster, but in the minor leagues). Bronson Arroyo and Brandon Cumpton were injured for the whole year and Tom Gorzelanny hasn't started a major league game since 2013.

One guy who used to start while with the Pirates is Zach Duke, but he moved to the bullpen full time four years ago and hasn't looked back (except for that one spot start he had with the Nationals in 2013). He's one of four lefties in the pen, including projected closer Tony Watson, who has never been a closer in real life, but his 41 holds in 2015 prove that he doesn't crack under pressure. This is not a terrible bullpen by any means, but it's not the type of lights out relief corps you want to support a rotation as spotty as this one.

Wednesday, October 7, 2015

Developed Teams 2015: New York Yankees

It's hard for me to blog regularly during the baseball playoffs. There are a lot of writers who are a lot closer to the action and a lot better equipped to respond to the real time momentum shifts of a tense postseason series than I, who tends to focus more on abstract, big picture topics. One such topic is one that I've explored at length several years ago (and teased briefly earlier this year), the Developed Teams Project. Now with the 2015 regular season in the books and my copy of MLB 15: The Show purchased, I figured this would be the perfect time to reboot this project, using order of elimination from the playoffs as a guide for which teams to profile first. Since the AL Wild Card Game occurred a day before the NL's play-in extravaganza, that puts the New York Yankees in the spotlight first.



Obviously the salary and free agency columns of this chart are irrelevant for our developed team purposes, but it's still nice to get a little perspective on where these players are in their careers. For example Robinson Cano, the heart and soul of this offense, just struck free agency gold, signing the largest contract in Mariners history, and is justifiably the developed Yankees' highest paid player. Number two on that list, Japanese ace Masahiro Tanaka, brings up the same inherent problem with this project that I touched on in the above-linked sneak peek. Seeing as Tanaka was already a star in his home country for seven years before he came stateside, the Yankees didn't have a hand in his development at all. But foreign imports like Tanaka are too important to the baseball landscape to simply leave out, so I've decided to give the importing team the same status as a more traditional player's developing team. So voila: instant $20mm ace.

These Yankees also have a pair of $10mm outfielders - Brett Gardner and Melky Cabrera (a star of this year's AL All-Acquired team) who would solidify the top of any batting order. The positions in left hand columns are based on actual 2015 stats, so you'll have to use your imagination to populate the depth chart sometimes - in this case placing Gardner and Austin Jackson to their secondary positions. Another brief word on the outfield, and to explain why I put three catchers on the roster: slugging DH Jimmy Paredes has played some RF and 3B in his brief career (neither of them well), but putting up with his weak defense would allow Dioner Navarro to log more time at DH.

If I were taking on this project prior to 2015 as opposed to after it, the infield corners would constitute gaping black holes, with failed catching prospect Jesus Montero the best option at first and Paredes basically forced into playing third. But two rookies - prospect Greg Bird for the Yanks and longtime minor league outfielder Adonis Garcia for the Braves, making his first appearance in my baseball database - stepped up and logged some pretty solid innings. Meanwhile Eduardo Nunez will be the first shortstop to start on a developed Yankees team in nearly two decades.

But rather than dwell on Yankees history, let's talk about the elements of New York's future that appear on this team. In addition to Greg Bird, whose immediate future is unclear with Mark Teixeira under contract for another year, Rob Refsnyder and Luis Severino look to be important cogs in the Yankees machine for years to come at 2B and SP, respectively. Severino will likely slot behind lefty Jose Quintana, who is an interesting case because he was neither initially signed nor did he make his MLB debut with the Yankees. However, given that he only managed 3 games in relief in the Mets system then spent four whole years in the Yankees farm system before debuting with the White Sox the same year in which he was acquired, his presence on this team is perfectly justified.

Once-vaunted prospects Ian Kennedy and Phil Hughes underperformed expectations this year, but given that they occupy the four and five spots in the rotation with ample spot starter / long relief options lined up behind them, the starting staff looks pretty solid. But the real strength of this club is the bullpen, which features the legitimate three-headed monster of Mark Melancon, David Robertson, and Dellin Betances. There's no way all three of these relief aces equal their 2015 fantasy point totals with just one team's worth of save chances to go around, but they will give the starters an immense amount of confidence knowing that they only have to go six innings in a close game.

Tuesday, May 12, 2015

Developed Teams 2015 SNEAK PEEK: Seattle Mariners

Last night, I made a the decision that I would preorder a bundle including a brand new PS4 and the much-anticipated title Batman: Arkham Knight (Arkham KUUUUHHHHH-neegit in Monty Python speak). I made this decision because I cannot, in good conscience, live in a world where this game exists and is within my reasonable grasp, and for some reason choose to deny myself the experience of playing it. For better or worse, that's not the person I want to be in 2015. This is arguably the culmination of most impressive depiction of the character of Batman that we've ever seen in a video game universe, and I would like my front-row seats, please.

This game doesn't come out until June 23, which also happens to be one day after my wedding anniversary, which I took as a good omen - also making it a day I'm sure not to forget. That means I have a little over a month to finish up all my outstanding business with the PS3 games: not only the journey of Hunter S. Batman, professional baseball player (his picture is at the top of this blog), but also a spousal run through of The LEGO Movie: The Video Game, and a recent spousal gift of Mortal Kombat vs. DC Universe - a veritable blast from the past that I somehow missed and am excited to finally check out.

But with the new system comes the possibility of new games on which to stage new baseball related projects. This is the area of my social media space that usually gets the least traffic, but it's the topic about which I'm most compelled to write, for some reason. I guess not all amateur journalists are created equal. In any event, the project I am envisioning is a rehashing of my Developed Teams project, presented on the shiny new stage of MLB 15: The Show.

As a preliminary first step, I created projected lineups for all 30 Major League teams, in preparation for simulating a season (or at least a postseason) with all (or at least 10) of these teams. I'm providing this sneak peek because it seems right to riff on my findings so far, even though this project is weeks from phase 2, so to speak - I likely won't get started building rosters or simulating games until after the All-Star Break, using the half-season's worth of sample size to inform my choices, somewhat like my Hometown project last year. Plus I'll need time to finish Arkham Knight, hopefully with a blog-related project attached! But for now, here's the first look at this year's version of the project: the developed starting lineup for the Seattle Mariners:


As a spoiler alert for my whole project: this team might not just be the strongest developed team in the AL West, but it might even have what it takes to win it all. Every player on this squad except one has spent time with Seattle’s big league club, but it’s that one who might tip the scales in this team’s favor. Most baseball fans know that David Ortiz made his major league debut with the Twins before becoming a star with the Red Sox. But I’ll bet a lot fewer people know that Big Papi spent his first three professional seasons in Seattle’s minor league system (where he was known as David Arias), as opposed to just part of one in Minnesota before his first call up to the majors.

A great deal of this team’s success, however, hinges on Ortiz being able to strap on the glove regularly, because after him on the 1B depth chart are guys like Willie Bloomquist (who will be around until he’s Jamie Moyer’s age), Jesus Guzman (currently playing in Japan), and Greg Dobbs (currently unemployed). One other option is to slide Alex Rodriguez across the diamond - he has one game at 1B this year (or one fewer than Ortiz), plus two more in Spring Training, but his superior athleticism could make him a better fit for the position.

The fact that Ortiz was traded for just 28 games of Dave Hollins in 1996 is just slightly less cringe-worthy than looking at the deal that sent Adam Jones and Chris Tillman (among others) to the Orioles for Erik Bedard, who managed just 46 games for Seattle. Tillman spent enough time in the O’s system before making his debut that I awarded him to Baltimore, but at least the Mariners get the AL’s batting leader Jones back into the fold for this project.

Felix Hernandez is a legitimate homegrown talent, but the presence of Hisashi Iwakuma brings up an inherent problem with the Developed Teams project. Iwakuma was already a known quantity with 11 seasons in Nippon Professional Baseball before being signed by the Mariners, and he didn’t need any “development” in the minors. But guys like him and Ichiro (on this team’s bench) and Masahiro Tanaka are too talented to leave off any roster, so I guess I’ll just have to reward the teams that are savvy enough to import them.

The fact that Rafael Soriano doesn't have a team for which to play right now (although that might change soon as he's reportedly in discussions with the Marlins) doesn't change the fact that he still has shut-down ninth-inning stuff. It's also a deep group behind him: Tom Wilhelmsen has closed before, and he's joined by such solid yet lesser-known arms as Yoervis Medina, Shawn Kelley, Scott Atchison, Dominic Leone. There's even another plus lefty (Eric O'Flaherty) in case Thornton falters. The rotation also has some upside if top prospects James Paxton and Taijuan Walker ever get their acts together.

So there you have it: your first taste of my Developed Teams project updated for 2015. Stay tuned for more analysis leading up to the actual game simulation!

Monday, September 26, 2011

Developed Teams 2011: St. Louis Cardinals

As of this writing, the Cardinals are the only team in contention that I have not yet profiled for this project.  And they're surging fast, as Wild Card teams in both leagues have faltered to the point of coming within a hair's breadth of giving up their leads.  And with only two days left in the season, I just slipped under the wire with this, the profile of the St. Louis Cardinals' developed roster:




Talk about a well-rounded squad: except for the back end of the rotation, this team has everything.  The lineup has a nice mix of power, average, speed and defense.  The rotation has a good mix of established stars, up-and-comers, and washed-out no-names.  And a couple of star setup men back up two guys who are currently closing in the majors (but only one of which was projected to do so).  Their one weakness is starting pitching depth, as they weren't able to furnish even one contestant for long relief, but the prognosis gets slightly better when we recall that Kyle McClellan did some starting this year (however ineffectively) to fill in for the injured Adam Wainwright.

As this is likely the last of these I will complete before the end of the regular season, let's harken back to my old practices and start with the players still on the club.  Starting with perennial All-Star Albert Pujols, even though there's not much I can say about his greatness that hasn't already been said... including the possibility of him leaving the team next year via Free Agency.  (To me, it doesn't seem likely, but I've been wrong before.)  Then there's also perennial All-Star Yadier Molina, the center of this team where heart and grit are concerned.  Skip Schumaker made the transition from OF to 2B three years ago, but his offensive production hasn't really justified him starting in either position.  And Jon Jay gets the backup outfielder spot, although it could just have easily gone to Allen Craig (they were ranked precisely two spots away from each other according to MLB's pre-season projections).  Incidentally, both have had very good years, although Jay has seen more at-bats.

On the mound, the only starter to remain with the team is Jaime Garcia (who, incidentally, shares a birth day and date with your humble narrator, the only current major leaguer to do so... probably shouldn't have said that, for identity-theft protection reasons... but it's a nice piece of trivia).  Out of the bullpen, we've got McClellan, who's making his bid to contribute as a swingman; righty-righty combo Boggs and Motte; and the kid who unexpectedly got a chance to close for the Redbirds, Fernando Salas.  (On a side-note, what is it about pitchers of Mexican descent who became surprise closers this year?  Not only has Salas been extremely effective, with a WHIP under 1 and a strikeout per inning, but Javy Guerra (although he was born in Texas) has put up an ERA under 2 while amassing 20 saves for the Dodgers.  Something to think about...)

Where's the beard!?
As far as players who have struck out on their own, we've got the ever-solid Dan Haren... about whom everyone scoffed when Billy Beane acquired him for Mark Mulder back in 2004, but just you go ahead and compare the careers of those two pitchers after the trade.  J.D. Drew has struggled recently, his fall to mediocrity occurring as fast as his rise to stardom was supposed to be meteoric.  Placido Polanco started the All-Star game at 3B this year (due in large part to a non-competitive field of players at the hot corner), but he remains one of the game's premier contact hitters.  Speaking of premier players, Coco Crisp is right up there in the stolen base category: he trails only Brett Gardner in the AL and Michael Bourn in the NL.  He's also not bad with the glove.  But the most heralded defender on the team has to be Brendan Ryan, who's currently at SS for the Mariners.

Also on the Mariners are my backup infielder (Adam Kennedy) and his runner-up (Jack Wilson).  Wilson is renowned for his glove, but I felt that Kennedy has more versatility and could contribute more coming off the bench.  Also with him on the bench is pitcher-turned-outfielder Rick Ankiel.  Nope, he hasn't gone back to pitching.  Nope, he also doesn't routinely post OBP's well above .300.  Brett Wallace was supposed to hit big starting at 1B for the Astros, but his individual performance has been roughly as disappointing as his team's as a whole.  We know Luke Gregerson has talent setting up for Heath Bell, but we'll see if the righty gets a chance to close if/when the big guy hits Free Agency this winter.

A couple of players started the year with the Cardinals, but found themselves on the way to Toronto at the trade deadline.  These are CF Colby Rasmus (whose relationship with manager Tony LaRussa supposedly played him off the team) and pitcher P.J. Walters (who has struggled in the minors as a starter for both clubs).  Speaking of struggling in the minors as a starter, that statement also accurately describes Clayton Mortensen, who rounds out a cringe-worthy bottom 40% of the rotation.  As for #3 starter Chris Narveson, what he lacks in name recognition, he makes up with almost exactly league-average statistical output.

Well, there you have it!  I have written a developed team profile for every team now currently in the hunt for the playoffs, and then some.  I don't know what exactly these findings tell us about these teams' chances of making the playoffs or how they'll fare therein, but I do hope they are as fun to read as they were to write.  Next up:  profiles of the developed rosters of the WORST teams around the league.

Wednesday, September 21, 2011

Developed Teams 2011: Tampa Bay Rays

Remember way back in the beginning of September when the Rays trailed the Red Sox by upwards of 7 or 8 games in the Wild Card race? Well in the recent weeks, they've pulled to within 2 games, and are in very real danger of making the playoffs. In celebration of their upstart success, here's a team made up of players developed by the Tampa Bay Rays:




Hamilton, during his "working
through some issues" phase
This is one of the most solid top two-thirds of a lineup you'll find anywhere, real or fantasy. We all remember what Carl Crawford was capable of doing just one year ago - i.e. serving as one of the most electric table-setters in modern leadoff history. B.J. Upton has developed into a legitimate power/speed threat after finally settling into a position. We all know about Josh Hamilton's MVP award, batting title, and former career-threatening drug habits. Evan Longoria hits home runs and does commercials (he's a double threat!). Aubrey Huff has slowed down a bit, but let's not forget (let's not forget, Dude) how he all-but carried the meager offense of the world champs last year. And Delmon Young took a few big steps back after a potential breakout season last year, but hopes of heading back to the playoffs after a trade has seemingly put some bounce back in his step.

The glut of outfielders makes for a somewhat imbalanced bench, but there really wasn't anything else to choose from. All the developed infielders are on the field in the starting lineup, with the exception of another first baseman, which doesn't help anybody. It's cool to have an established power hitter in Gomes and a future star in Jennings, but I'm sure any fantasy developed manager would like to have a little more versatility out there. But remember that this team has only been around for 13 years, so it's impressive they have such a star-studded roster as it is.

Speaking of stars, check out that rotation - every member of which still pitches for the Rays today. It includes rookies and All-Star starters, and includes some of the best young pitching talent under 30. The bullpen has a few question marks, including the role of closer, which is occupied by the rookie who was projected to close until the acquisition and subsequent rebirth of Kyle Farnsworth. But Wheeler is a veteran presence and Veras has proven his adequacy. But then there's the corps of spot starters, all of whom seem to have settled nicely into that role in real life, after tasting slight success in major league rotations.

Overall, this is one of the most well-rounded teams out there. If there was such thing as a Developed Team Tournament (hint hint for those friends of Rob Neyer who put together the virtual showdowns between those various All-Time Teams), I'd definitely put the Rays among the top contenders. That is, if every member of the infield stays healthy and the bench depth isn't tested at all. That could prove problematic. But in terms of top-shelf talent on paper, these youngsters will be hard to beat.