Friday, October 16, 2015

Developed Teams 2015: Houston Astros

Nobody expected the Astros to be contenders this year, but they surprised the world by nearly winning the AL West and then taking the defending AL Champion Royals to within six outs of elimination before snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. But the point is that Houston's rebuilding effort came to fruition sooner than expected, helped along by some shrewd trades and free agent signings, so we can expect this team to be contenders for the foreseeable future.



The three key pieces of this lineup that are also the backbone of Houston's real life lineup are Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, and George Springer, all of whom have the potential to be perennial All-Stars. The best offensive outfield alignment features the athletic Springer in center field, flanked by recent breakout star J.D. Martinez (whose 38 home runs are all the more impressive when you consider he plays his home games in spacious Comerica Park) and Hunter Pence (who played extremely well for the short time he was able to take the field in 2015 due to injuries). However, given that both Pence and Martinez routinely put up negative defensive WAR, it makes the most sense to use speedy Rule 5 pick Delino DeShields (Jr.) in the outfield with one of the aforementioned sluggers moving to DH. For solid fifth and sixth outfielders, look no further than 2015 rookies Preston Tucker and Domingo Santana, or if you prefer the lower upside veteran route, there are names such as Brandon Barnes and J.B. Shuck.

The spectacular middle infield and corner outfield logjam presents a problem of how to get switch hitting super utility man Ben Zobrist in the lineup, who spent the better part of three years in Houston's minor league system as opposed to just 18 games with Tampa Bay's before making his debut. Zobrist has played everywhere except pitcher and catcher during his eight year career, but the two spots at which he has the least experience are the two open spots in this defensive alignment: first base (17 games) and third base (9 games). But with Chris Johnson and Jon Singleton the next best options at the corners, Zorilla is going to have to learn a relatively new position - something that hasn't been difficult for him in the past. Another trouble spot is catcher, where John Buck would have to come out of retirement in order to provide Jason Castro a backup with any major league experience whatsoever.

After Dallas Keuchel, who should win the AL Cy Young Award this year, this pitching staff is a bit of a mess, but it's not without promise. Lance McCullers took the baseball world by storm with his Batman cleats and solid pitching in his first appearance on my database (hence the green highlight in his Pos 2 column) and he's joined by fellow rookies Nick Tropeano (seven starts for the Angels), Vincent Velasquez (seven starts and 12 relief appearances), and Mike Foltynewicz (15 starts for the Braves). Jarred Cosart and Jordan Lyles are former top 100 prospects whose development has staled somewhat, but the dream is definitely still alive for the Marlins and Rockies, respectively. And then Wandy Rodriguez and Bud Norris are both veterans who lost their rotation spots this year, but who could still eat up innings for an inconsistent staff.

All these pitchers will have to jump back and forth between the rotation and the bullpen, because the handful of full-time relievers developed by the Astros leaves quite a bit to be desired. Matt Albers put up the best stats in 2015, but Chad Qualls is the only one with significant closing experience, and Fernando Abad has proven himself just "A-bad" pitcher... WHATEVER I'M AN A'S FAN, I COULDN'T RESIST. The fortunes of this staff might change if/when prospects such as Mark Appel, Asher Wojciechowski, Michael Feliz, and Rio Ruiz come to fruition, but for now this staff could be a good opportunity to experiment with mixing and matching pitchers in a designated short start/long relief strategy rather than a traditional five-man rotation. Now I just have to figure out how to program that strategy into MLB 15: The Show for my planned simulations using these rosters.

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