Monday, October 20, 2014

Handicapping the 2014 World Series

Will Scott McKenzie's "San Francisco" be
the next song banned from the radio?
Well, here we are, nearing the end of the MLB postseason when excitement for baseball is supposed to reach a fever pitch, and what do we get? The longest amount of time with no baseball games since opening day. Seriously, when was the last game of the NLCS? Thursday? That's a layoff as long as the All-Star Break, but this time we don't get the All-Star Game in the middle of it. I know the precious TV programmers must know their schedules 500 days in advance, regardless of the outcome of the playoffs, but I don't think it's fair to make the fans wait almost a full work week between playoff rounds. And that's not counting the fringe fans who might have tuned in to a game or two over the weekend but who have lost interest after four long days off.

And not only is it unfair to the fans, it's a serious drawback to the players as well. MLB's reporters are doing all they can to convince us that the time off won't hurt the Royals (who have been sitting for one more day than the Giants). But past results are not encouraging for playoff teams coming off long rest periods facing up against hot opponents. Last week, my friend brought up the 2007 Rockies who, like the Royals, won their play-in game and swept the first two rounds of the playoffs. Then they sat for a week and got steamrolled by a Red Sox team coming off one of the most exciting ALCS's in recent memory. I would add to that the 2012 Tigers, who swept the Yankees in the ALCS, sat for a week, then got swept by (who else?) the Giants after their dramatic come-from-behind NLCS against (who else?) the Cardinals.

I'm not saying this situation is exactly analogous to those two examples since these Giants will have been off for almost as much time as their opponents and the Cardinals never really seemed like a big threat in this year's NLCS. But did you see the energy in San Francisco after they won Game 5 on that walk-off home run? The players were going nuts, the fans were going nuts, much more so than when Jarrod Dyson's prediction came true in Kansas City a day earlier. I know the time off allows both teams to line up their ideal pitching rotations for the World Series, but the Giants also get to carry all that momentum with them into the next round.

They say baseball is a marathon, not a sprint, and the Royals' postseason so far has seemed an awful lot like a sprint - and not just because of all those stolen bases, heyo! For all Grant Brisbee's reasons and more, I'm rooting for the Royals to take home this year's World Series trophy - even though I don't subscribe to the theory that you should support the team that eliminated your favorite team on principle. But honestly, with how the playoffs have been shaping up so far I'm not sure if the speedy upstarts are in a great position. Although perhaps the radio stations of San Francisco's anti-Lorde antics will be enough to shift the karmic tide back to the underdogs. Tune in to the World Series starting tomorrow at 8pm ET on Fox to find out!

Thursday, October 16, 2014

Divisional All-Stars 2014: National League

So I made a mistake on the chart from Tuesday's post. Did anybody notice? I'll reveal it at the end in case anybody wants to take a stab at guessing what it was. I'll give you a hint: it happened when I was rearranging the bullpens in order to give everyone a lefty. I'm not changing it because it's too much of a pain to re-screen grab those charts and upload everything again. Plus, I think people should own up to their mistakes on the internet, even though I have been known to use the "Update" button if I find a particularly glaring error.

Anyway, on to the National League, going west to east, here are your Divisional All-Stars!


A pair of injuries made this team a lot worse than it might have been. If Paul Goldschmidt (1,693 / 15.5) and Troy Tulowitzki (1,455 / 16.0) had not missed the ends of their seasons (or if I put more stock in average PPG than overall fantasy points), the two of them would likely be holding down the first base and shortstop positions (as well as the 3 and 4 spots in the batting order), respectively. But as it stands, Adrian Gonzalez's penchant for driving in runs and Hanley Ramirez's last year before free agency stand front and center. Well, actually not too center for Hanley, whose own injury-shortened season was not bad, but neither was it spectacular enough to overshadow any of the four star outfielders who hit above him in my batting order. Other than one of those outfielders, this offense is made up entirely of Dodgers and Giants, which is not surprising considering one of those teams won the second-most games in the league and the other very well might be heading to its third world series in five years.

Speaking of the Dodgers and the Giants, this top three doesn't quite rival the AL Central team, but it comes close. Well, maybe less close if you take the playoff version of Clayton Kershaw as opposed to his regular season variety, but he's still undeniably the best pitcher in the sport right now. Meanwhile, Petco Park continues to revitalize the careers of marginal pitchers, both in the rotation and the bullpen. While it's not a requirement for me to have these teams feature a player from each club in their respective divisions (the AL Central was notably Twins-absent, but both Brian Dozier and Phil Hughes showed up in the AL Wild Card squad), the Diamondbacks do get a representative in Brad Ziegler, who just barely squeaked in over Tim Stauffer (616 / 14.0), who was cut to make room for the lefty Jeremy Affeldt.


This team is pretty self-explanatory, except that it might seem weird to have Josh Harrison, a guy who qualified at three different positions last year, listed as the DH. In fact, it might seem weird to have a DH listed at all on a National League team, but I always prefer getting a ninth batter in there so we can more easily compare the two leagues to each other. Notable exceptions include rookie base stealing phenom Billy Hamilton and reputation rebuilding slugger Ryan Braun, who haven't yet become / aren't anymore considered to be one of the elite central division players. Also, Cubs franchise shortstop Starlin Castro narrowly missed inclusion in favor of the formerly steroid-aided power of Jhonny Peralta, making him the second Divisional All-Star who was suspended in 2013 due to Biogenesis related issues.

Before looking at this post, I wondered who would have guessed that 2014's highest overall fantasy point scorer was Reds ace Johnny Cueto, but that was indeed the case. He didn't quite reach Kershaw's point per game totals, but remember the Dodgers' top pitcher also missed most of the first month of the season due to injury. Like Kershaw, Adam Wainwright is another guy whose regular season far outshines his playoff performance, plus it's pretty much thanks to him that the NL won't receive home field advantage in this year's World Series, but you can't get a much more solid number 2 starter. But do you know who actually (very slightly) outperformed Waino in PPG? The surprisingly successful Jake Arrieta, who might be a reason for Cubs fans to have some hope for the future - that and the roughly 1,000 promising offensive prospects they have moments away from the majors.

K-Rod is back, and just in time for him to hit free agency again! His last couple of go-rounds, he's signed with the Brewers at a discounted rate, but with Jim Henderson due back from shoulder surgery and Jonathan Broxton still under contract, the need might not be great in Milwaukee. Pat Neshek and Tony Watson present what might be the best righty/lefty combo in this little experiment (their main competition being Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller in the AL East).


This lineup is a little top-heavy, with Giancarlo Stanton's season-ending injury coming later enough than those of his fellow MVP candidates from the NL West that he still easily leads this club in points. Anthony Rendon did give him a run for his money, however, which is all the more impressive considering he did it while playing two different positions, and that he's still playing out the contract he signed out of the draft in 2011. (The questionable nature of the 5th year option in that deal is the reason for the question mark in his Free Agency status column.) With Denard Span's club option a virtual lock to be picked up following a season in which he set a Nationals franchise record in hits, this team has a staggering zero players slated to hit the open market next year.

Looking at Tanner Roark's numbers and the way they match up with the other powerhouse starters in this rotation, it's a crying shame that he wasn't utilized more in this year's postseason. Not that it there's a guarantee that it would have made a difference in the Nationals' chances, but he's too talented to be used as an occasional short reliever. Speaking of short relievers, the ones on this club leave a little to be desired. Carlos Torres pitched a ton of innings and Tyler Clippard is a former closer, but if I were Craig Kimbrel, arguably the best closer in the game, I would hope for a slightly better bridge from my starters.  It might be a little unfair to have Alex Wood in the swingman slot here, since his point total would put him as the number 2 starter on the NL Wild Card team, but he did relieve in enough games to qualify, so in a way he justifies the lack of a true setup ace.


Unlike his middle infield partner in Philadelphia, Jimmy Rollins has showed some signs of slowing these last few years, but he brought just enough speed and pop to beat out Tulo's injury shortened season for the Wild Card shortstop honors. Ditto for both Lucas Duda and Adam LaRoche, except replace Tulo with Goldy and omit the part about the speed. Overall, this lineup is a little bit awkward looking, not only because it's overwhelmingly left-handed, but because it lacks a clear established middle of the order thumper. Devin Mesoraco's season was a revelation when healthy, but neither he nor Corey Dickerson have a track record to think that they won't seriously regress toward the mean. But the same thing happened to Matt Carpenter from last year and he still ended up on this team, so perhaps there is hope yet.

Speaking of regression, there is no way that fill-in starter Alfredo Simon comes close to the dominance that he showed in the first half of this season, but I can picture him morphing into a very valuable bullpen piece if he struggles as the innings pile up. Doug Fister on the other hand is only getting better, as he looks to have figured things out in his first year in the NL. Jonathan Papelbon doesn't exactly inspire confidence in the back end of the bullpen, but as it happens they have an insurance policy in Mets closer Jenrry Mejia, who started enough games to qualify for swingman status. Plus Philly's closer-in-waiting Ken Giles is also waiting in the wings.


So there you have it: four teams made up of the best of the NL organized by division and position, to go with the AL's four similar teams. Speaking of the AL, the answer to my above trivia question as to what mistake I made on Tuesday: Yankees reliever Adam Warren was mistakenly placed on the Wild Card team when he really should have been on the AL East squad, switching place with Blue Jays lefty Brett Cecil. Riveting stuff, I know. At least you know that someone is paying attention...

Tuesday, October 14, 2014

Divisional All-Stars 2014: American League

I know the playoffs are in full swing, but now that the A's are out of it, I'll leave the day-to-day commentary to the beat reporters and analysts that spend more time following the games themselves (or at least to the bloggers who have access to cable TV on which to watch the games). Instead, I'll publish the first fruits of my exhaustive 2014 baseball database in the form of an age-old project of mine: Divisional All-Stars! For those of you who haven't seen any of the other times I've done this project in the past, it basically consists of eight lineups - one for each division plus one wild card team in each league - made up of the best players at each respective position in that division.

The format in each year has been slightly different, but what gave me the most consistent tsuris was figuring out how to place players who changed teams (or, more specifically, divisions) mid-season. I've tried it where a player belongs to the division in which he received the most plate appearances or scored the most fantasy points. But this year, seeing as I spent so much time keeping up to date 40 man rosters this season, I'd just have each player belong to the team with which he finished the season. That might be a blatant bias towards the AL West, who gets two top of the line starting pitchers and an elite closer while losing just Yoenis Cespedes. But we'll see how it works, and if it's terribly overpowered, we can always try another pass. It's not baseball blogging unless you have to do it twice!

Since I was just talking about the AL West, that seems like a perfect place to start:


Starting your lineup with the AL batting champion and following that up with the universally-agreed-upon best player in baseball is not a bad place to be as far as this little thought experiment is concerned. Second string second baseman Cano performed just a tick below the next couple people in the lineup, but I thought it was important to get a lefty in there (if only so we could have someone to pinch hit Jonny Gomes for in a crucial situation), plus I've heard that lineup construction doesn't matter much anyway. Second base was obviously deep in this division - Howie Kendrick had a great season but remains on the bench - but third base was even deeper, with both Adrian Beltre and Kyle Seager showing up on the AL Wild Card team (see below).

The presence of Brandon Moss in the outfield is a good reason to say a word about positional eligibility: in order to be play at a certain position, a player needed at least 20 games at that position during the regular season, with the exception of corner outfielders (who I allow to play either corner outfield spot) and center fielders (who I allow to play any outfield spot). Moss qualified in both right and left field, as he filled in for the injured Josh Reddick and the departed Yoenis Cespedes, respectively. It's interesting that Moss scored higher than his nearest competition (Dustin Ackley) by nearly 200 points despite his abysmal second half, which was caused by either the departure of his beloved lineup protector Cespedes or the torn cartilage in his hip that required offseason surgery... YOU DECIDE!

I mentioned that Lester and Samardzija would not have belonged to this team if I had used the formula from years past, but this starting staff would still have been pretty darned impressive without them: Jered Weaver would have taken the fourth slot with one of either Dallas Keuchel or Hisashi Iwakuma to follow. As it stands, all three of them ended up on the Wild Card team. The same goes for the closer position: Wild Card stopper Fernando Rodney did almost as well as Street in his first season with the Mariners, while David Robertson of the Yankees would easily finish games for the best-of-the-rest. Just for a minute, look at Otero's numbers vs. Gregerson's (even not accounting for the blown saves) and tell me who you think should have been pitching in late and close situations.


Remember the days when Victor Martinez qualified as a catcher? Or when Miguel Cabrera was a third baseman? If either of those was still the case, this team could have had those two plus rookie sensation Jose Abreu holding down the 3-4-5 spots in the batting order. I feel like it's a little ironic that the reason Carlos Santana no longer qualifies behind the plate is the emergence of Yan Gomes, who is no slouch, but at least the Santana at third base experiment worked well enough to avoid having Trevor Plouffe start at the hot corner. Meanwhile, if breakout star Michael Brantley hadn't qualified in center field, this team would have had to put up with Rajai Davis instead of Torii Hunter. Speaking of Hunter, I made a somewhat sentimental decision to start him rather than his teammate who had another breakout year, J.D. Martinez (1,592 points / 12.9 PPG) because a) Hunter has a stronger track record of success than one partial season and b) it might be his last year if he decides to retire.

There's no doubt that this squad has the strongest starting rotation out of all the Divisional All-Star teams, and it wouldn't even have been close if David Price were disqualified and replaced with Phil Hughes, the Wild Card's staff ace. I don't believe that Corey Kluber should win the Cy Young over Felix Hernandez, but he did have a season for the ages, Chris Sale was dominant, even having missed time in the beginning of the year, and both Max Scherzer and James Shields likely pitched themselves into supermassive free agent contracts. The bullpen is basically the same thing that Royals fans got to watch all season long with a couple guys from Cleveland thrown in. I also fudged the numbers to get Phil Coke in there instead of Al Alburquerque, because studies have shown that it's good to have at least one lefty in the pen for those tough matchups.


At first glance, it isn't hard to tell that this team is all about the Dominican Republic: the first five spots in the lineup are filled with guys who the Dominicans would LOVE to trot out there in the next World Baseball Classic. But cultural solidarity was not the only reason for arranging the lineup thus: even though a guy like Zobrist profiles more as a prototypical #2 hitter while Bautista would normally hit in a middle of the order power position, I took a page out of the Mike Scioscia/Sabermetrics book and bat the team's strongest hitter second (he actually started 21 games at that spot in the batting order this year, enough to qualify there if I used the same system as defensive positions).

The rotation definitely looks a little weak, especially considering the other two divisions we've seen so far. Tanaka obviously has lights-out stuff, but the status of his partially torn UCL has got to be troubling to the Yankees, even though his long term doesn't necessarily enter into this project. In the meantime, it feels like none of these other four guys would be aces on the majority of contending teams. The bullpen is rock solid though, with a first year closer who's really blossomed in the role, three well-publicized middle relief aces, and a rookie who totally flew under everybody's radar to put up an awesome season. It looks like this team's strategy would be to out-slug its opponents early while holding on for dear life in the late game.


With the Wild Card team, I like to start off with a quick breakdown of what divisions were deep enough to supply an overflow. In this case, we have five from the central, six from the east, and a whopping 10 from the west. Most of those western folks are pitchers, as I mentioned earlier. Most of the central folks are batters, including the two top offensive scorers Dozier and Abreu. And the east fills in the outfield and bullpen cracks. It's interesting to see that almost all these starters outmatch the starters on the AL East team, but where this team is at a huge disadvantage is in the bullpen, where none of the ace setup men are available. There seems to be a good mix of impact power hitters and scrappy contact/speed guys in the lineup, which could prove for some frustrating matchups for opposing clubs.


Next time I'll come back with the NL teams. Until then, go back to watching the actual playoffs.

Friday, October 10, 2014

ALCS 2014: Position-by-Position Preview

I started my position-by-position previews with the NLCS because my last post was about one of the participating teams, even though the AL's championship series will start before the NL's. But there's still time before tonight's ALCS opener between the Royals and the Orioles (say those names five times fast) to examine which team has the advantage, positionally speaking.

Royals vs. Orioles

C: Salvador Perez vs. Caleb Joseph/Nick Hundley
Salvador PerezAll-Star starter vs. replacement level... well, replacements. It doesn't take a degree in Sabermetrics to figure this one out. It would have been much more of a contest if Baltimore's opening day catcher and franchise player Matt Wieters (who was actually elected to start the All-Star game with 13.0 fantasy points per game in the season's first month) had not missed most of the season with Tommy John surgery. But if "if's" and "but's" were candy and nuts, then... how does the rest of that go?
ADVANTAGE: KCR

1B: Eric Hosmer vs. Steve Pearce
Eric HosmerPearce's 2014 was a feel-good story about perseverance and a great attitude towards the game, while Hosmer's was that of a much-hyped prospect who has failed to live up to expectations. I might be reading this wrong, but baseball-reference claims that Pearce was worth 6 (six) wins above replacement while Hosmer tallied just 0.8 in 2014. But all that goes out the window in the postseason: Pearce did hit a respectable .300 in 10 ALDS AB's, but Hosmer has that total beat by a full .100 with two HR's added to the mix and a key triple in the Wild Card game. Baseball might be a marathon, not a sprint, but it's also a game of momentum, and it's clear where that lies right now.
ADVANTAGE: KCR

2B: Omar Infante vs. Jonathan Schoop
Neither of these players are what you'd call offensive powerhouses: Schoop has the upside of youth (he's only 22 and a rookie) and more power in his bat, but Infante has veteran scrappiness and postseason experience (albeit with an unimpressive track record - .557 OPS in 34 games).
ADVANTAGE: KCR (but it's close)

3B: Mike Moustakas vs. Ryan Flaherty/Kelly Johnson
Again, this one wouldn't be close if Baltimore's preternaturally talented third baseman Manny Machado had not gone down for the year with a knee injury. Moustakas was on the same prospect clock as Hosmer, and like his counterpart across the diamond, he's made up for a lackluster 2014 season by blasting a couple of long balls in the division series. Also, Moose was the starting third baseman on a playoff team for the whole season, which is more than replacement-level types Flaherty and Johnson can say.
ADVANTAGE: KCR

SS: Alcides Escobar vs. J.J. Hardy
J.J. HardyExcept for his two curious power outages (2010 and 2014), Hardy has been one of the most consistent power hitting shortstops in the game for the last 8 years. And apparently his career-low power numbers this year didn't keep the Baltimore brass from signing him to a three-year extension between the two playoff serieses. Escobar has a lot of speed and is adept at laying down bunts (he was in the top 10 in sacrifice hits each of the last four years), which is clearly the most important skill to have in a Ned Yost offense.
ADVANTAGE: BAL

LF: Alex Gordon vs. Alejandro De Aza
Alex GordonThe story of Alex Gordon is the reason Kansas City fans have to still be optimistic about Eric Hosmer/Mike Moustakas types. Gordon was a number 2 overall draft pick in 2005 who struggled at his original position of third base, but once he moved to the outfield, he finally became the middle of the order bat (and gold glove defender) they were looking for. Left field has been somewhat of a revolving door for the Orioles: Steve Pearce spent some time there before first baseman Chris Davis was suspended for attention-enhancing drugs, Nelson Cruz and Delmon Young were stashed there when not DH'ing, and David Lough is a popular defensive replacement type. De Aza was deemed expendable by the White Sox after OPS'ing .663 for them through his first 122 games, but after the trade, he busted out to the tune of and .877 OPS and hitting 3 of his 5 2014 HR's in just 20 games. A high upside player for sure, but not nearly as dependable.
ADVANTAGE: KCR

CF: Lorenzo Cain vs. Adam Jones
Adam JonesCain was just recently promoted to the #3 spot in the batting order, but his main assets are his speed (28 SB in 33 tries) and defense (2.7 defensive rWAR). Meanwhile, Adam Jones is coming off three straight All-Star appearances, and while he won gold glove awards the last two years, the metrics say that he really didn't deserve them. In fact, the two are neck and neck in overall rWAR (5.0 for Cain, 4.9 for Jones), but as I mentioned above, more than half of Cain's were because of his glove whereas all but 0.3 came from Jones's bat. And a right-handed hitter who can threaten 30 homers a year while playing a difficult defensive position is a rare talent indeed.
ADVANTAGE: BAL

RF: Nori Aoki vs. Nick Markakis
Nick MarkakisBoth of these guys were their teams' leadoff hitters for most of the year, until Aoki was bumped to second in the order in favor of Alcides Escobar. I'm not holding that move against him (even though I'm not sure why a guy with 1 home run and a .710 OPS should hit in a spot where you probably should have your best hitter on the team), I'm just not really sure what Aoki brings to the table except a strong hitting for average tool and (wait for it) the ability to lay down bunts. Markakis gets on base at about the same clip (.342 against Aoki's .349) and he at least has some power (he hit 14 home runs this year, pretty close to his 162 game average of 17, plus one in the division series). He also out-WAR'd the competition 2 to 1.
ADVANTAGE: BAL

DH: Billy Butler vs. Nelson Cruz
Nelson CruzNelson Cruz is living proof that you can make the most out of your second chance. Just a year after being suspended for using actual performance enhancing drugs, he signed a one year deal to prove he can play un-juiced and responded by leading the AL in home runs. Butler made a lot of headlines when he stole his first base since 2012 in the playoffs, but if you're a DH and you're clogging up the basepaths and you're not hitting home runs, then you're doing it wrong.
ADVANTAGE: BAL

SP1: James Shields vs. Chris Tillman
James ShieldsAlthough Chris Tillman has had a very consistent last couple of years (he averaged 33 starts, 206 innings, and a 3.52 ERA since 2013), he's honestly not an ace on many teams, let alone many of these playoff teams. Plus, James Shields has been averaging 33 starts, 223 innings, and a 3.64 ERA for the past 8 (eight) years. He is the very model of consistency, has a reputation for coming up big in the clutch (when he's not being pulled for a reliever in head-scratching situations), and will enjoy making many millions of dollars while pitching for the Yankees or Red Sox next year.
ADVANTAGE: KCR

SP2: Yordano Ventura vs. Wei-Yin Chen
Yordano VenturaHere we have a battle between the electrifying rookie fireballer and the command and control soft-tossing lefty. Not that 91 mph is Jamie Moyer-esque, but neither is it 97 mph. As you might imagine, the 23-year-old Ventura has struggled with the walk (69 allowed vs. just 35), while the 28-year-old Chen has struggled with the long ball (23 allowed, or 1.1 per nine innings, vs. 14 - 0.7 per 9). Of course Kansas City doesn't hit a lot of home runs (their 95 on the year was last in the league), but neither does Baltimore take a lot of walks (their 401 was ahead of only the Mariners and... the Royals). It's a very tough decision, but I think I have to go with the upside of the young phenom.
ADVANTAGE: KCR

SP3: Jason Vargas vs. Bud Norris
Bud NorrisVargas is another soft-tossing lefty (I think an 87.3 mph average fastball velocity definitely qualifies) and while Norris is by no means an electrifying rookie fireballer, he still throws hard (93.4 mph average) with a good slider and has seemed to respond well to his first taste of playing in the postseason, having shut out the powerful Tigers over 6 innings in his only playoff appearance. Vargas also pitched 6 innings against the Angels, but he gave up two runs and struck out only two, while Norris punched out one per inning. By the way, I always feel like "Bud" should be short for something like "Budrick" - but it turns out Budrick is not a real thing and Norris's first name is actually David.
ADVANTAGE: BAL

SP4: Danny Duffy/Jeremy Guthrie vs. Miguel Gonzalez/Kevin Gausman
I listed both the fourth and fifth starters under this heading because, as you know, I'm totally obsessed with the short starter/long reliever strategy when you don't have four dominant pitchers in your rotation, which I would say is definitely the norm. But even though no major league managers seem to share my views, I'm going to evaluate them as a team. Duffy and Gonzalez both severely outperformed their FIP's (Duffy's 2.53 ERA should have been closer to 3.83, but Gonzalez 3.23 should have been 4.89) and they both have pretty similar peripherals. Also, Duffy is coming off some missed time in September, so it's not clear how long he'll be able to go in a start. If we start getting into Guthrie territory, the choice is clear.
ADVANTAGE: BAL

CL: Greg Holland vs. Zach Britton
Greg HollandBritton has pitched brilliantly since winning the closer's spot from Tommy Hunter in early May (37 saves with a 1.65 ERA and 60 strikeouts). But Greg Holland is the best right handed closer in the game, no questions asked: he saved 9 more games, with an ERA 21 points lower (yes, LOWER than 1.65), and struck out 30 more batters.
ADVANTAGE: KCR

RP: Wade Davis/Kelvin Herrera/Brandon Finnegan vs. Darren O'Day/Tommy Hunter/Justin Miller
I thought this would be an easy pick, since Wade Davis had one of the most dominant seasons for a relief pitcher maybe ever (1.00 ERA, 72 innings pitched, 13.6 strikeouts per nine innings, better than Holland), but Darren O'Day has been no slouch himself (1.71 ERA in 68 innings with 9.6 K/9). Tommy Hunter obviously flamed out in the closer's role, but he has been very serviceable since, and while Kelvin Herrera throws gas, he has shown some vulnerability in the playoffs. Andrew Miller might be one of the most desirable relief pitching commodities going into the offseason free agent fest, but 2014 first round pick Brandon Finnegan, despite only 7 innings in 2014, is looking like he might turn into this year's Francisco Rodriguez. Plus, come on, Wade Davis, man. Unfair.
ADVANTAGE: KCR

Pretty one-sided in terms of which team has the best positional matchups, but as you know, baseball is not a game of matchups. It is a game of moments and momentum, of making the right plays at the right times and having everyone on the team rise to the occasion together. Either way, this series promises to be a lot of fun, and I will definitely be pulling for whoever wins here to go on and win the World Series. Hopefully my support doesn't curse them like it has seemed to curse the A's, but I figure it's better to speak my mind than to be superstitious.

Enjoy the ALCS tonight at 8pm ET on TBS: Very Funny!

Thursday, October 9, 2014

NLCS 2014: Position-by-Position Preview

For two brief outs, it looked as if at least one of my predictions for Game 4 of the NLDS would prove accurate. Gio Gonzalez had made it through four strong innings for the Nationals, and in came Tanner Roark - by all accounts the superior pitcher this year - for some (ostensibly) long relief. Roark could not hold down the fort, however, giving up two hits and loading the bases before giving way to lefty Jerry Blevins after just 2/3 of an inning. Who knows if Washington manager had planned to leave Roark in for multiple innings as I suspected he would, but sometimes the best laid plans don't turn out how you expect.

Meanwhile, on the other side of the coin, Bruce Bochy yanked his starter Ryan Vogelsong with two outs and nobody on in the sixth for lefty specialist Javier Lopez, who did his job. But then rather than giving 2014 no-hitter author Tim Lincecum the shot at a three-inning save, he went with rookie Hunter Strickland, who promptly gave up a game-tying home run to Bryce Harper. The Giants ended up winning on a wild pitch by Washington's fifth pitcher of the night Aaron Barrett, and advance to the NLCS without The Freak having thrown a single pitch in the Division Series. Have we seen some of the weirdest deployments of bullpen weapons of all time in this postseason so far or am I imagining it all? Either way, let's look ahead at the National League's championship series by doing one of my favorite playoff tropes: going position by position.

Cardinals vs. Giants

C: Yadier Molina vs. Buster Posey
Buster PoseyIt's not really fair to compare these two players either offensively or defensively, because they are very likely the best at their positions in those respective categories. Molina has had a tough injury-plagued year, but both his pitch framing skills and ability to throw out potential base stealers (he led the league with 48% of runners gunned down) can have a big impact on a game. Posey's offensive production can be favorably compared to Matt Holliday, by far the Cardinals' most dangerous hitter, and that's coming from a typically offense-light position. It's close, but I'm going to have to give it to the bat here.
ADVANTAGE: SFG

1B: Matt Adams vs. Brandon Belt
Talk about tough injury-plagued years: Belt got off to a hot start to the year, but was never the same after breaking his thumb in May. Adams, meanwhile, just singlehandedly put his team into the next round by doing the unthinkable: hitting a home run off a Clayton Kershaw curveball as a left-handed hitter. In this case, both the momentum and the full-season track record are clear.
ADVANTAGE: STL

2B: Kolten Wong vs. Joe Panik
It's the battle of the rookies! Both of these youngsters unseated veteran counterparts - although most pundits believed Wong would start for St. Louis over Mark Ellis, and Marco Scutaro played exactly five games for the Giants - and both performed well down the stretch. But here the stats speak for themselves: though Panik has a stronger OPS (.711 to .680), Wong has advantage in HR (12 to 1), SB (20 to 0), and rWAR (2.2 to 1.1).
ADVANTAGE: STL

3B: Matt Carpenter vs. Pablo Sandoval
Matt CarpenterThese guys have both been incredibly clutch throughout this entire postseason. Carpenter hit three home runs against the Dodgers, but Sandoval had that huge ninth-inning RBI double to send game 2 into extra innings. This one is also close, but I have to give it to Carpenter based on his recent power surge and eye-popping plate discipline (he led the league with 95 walks).
ADVANTAGE: STL

SS: Jhonny Peralta vs. Brandon Crawford
Crawford did hit that grand slam that pretty much locked down the Wild Card game, but isn't known for hitting home runs in general (also his hair is kind of gross, but that's just one blogger's opinion). Peralta does have a (rather infamous) track record as a power hitter, and definitely is in a position to contribute more for his club as the playoffs continue.
ADVANTAGE: STL

LF: Matt Holliday vs. Travis Ishikawa/Juan Perez/Michael Morse maybe?
Matt HollidayAs I mentioned earlier, Holliday is clearly St. Louis's biggest offensive threat, so there's no question he beats out whatever replacement level scrubs the Giants can trot out while Morse recovers from his oblique strain. Even if San Francisco's opening day left fielder is be ready to play in the NLCS, he still doesn't bring the same production that Holliday does.
ADVANTAGE: STL

CF: Jon Jay vs. Gregor Blanco
In a perfect world, the Giants would have Angel Pagan out here and in the leadoff spot with Blanco filling in for Morse in left. As it stands though, these two are basically the same exact player: they both hit (and throw) left handed, they're both glove-first fourth outfielder types, they both hit for decent average but very little power, and they even ranked within 10 spots of each other according to MLB's preseason rankings (441 for Jay, 433 for Blanco). Jay has slightly more offensive prowess (.750 OPS vs. .707) but Blanco has more speed (16 SB in 21 tries vs. 6 in 9), and based on the fact that San Francisco trusts him enough to fill in as their leadoff hitter, I'm gonna have to give him the nod here.
ADVANTAGE: SFG

RF: Hunter Pence vs. Randal Grichuk
Hunter PenceAh, the David Freese trade is immediately paying dividends. After trading Allen Craig to the Red Sox and watching Oscar Taveras struggle at the plate, the Cardinals slotted the rookie (and #12 on the organizational prospects list) Grichuk into RF, where he put up three home runs and a .678 OPS in 47 games. Pence vs. Holliday would have been close, but this matchup is quite figuratively a no-brainer.
ADVANTAGE: SFG

SP1: Adam Wainwright vs. Madison Bumgarner
Adam WainwrightThe Giants haven't announced whether Bumgarner will start on Saturday after having pitched the Wild Card game and Game 3 of the NLDS last Monday, but either way, these are the two staff aces and deserve to be compared as such. It's hard to put any NL pitcher not named Kershaw or Cueto up against the likes of Wainwright and expect them to come out on top, but MadBum has quietly turned himself into an elite starter. Wainwright has a 200 point edge in swp (to the tune of 10 ppg) and a full 2 more rWAR (6.1 to 4.0), but Bumgarner has a better K/BB ratio (5.09 to 3.58) and nearly as many complete games/shutouts (4/2 to 5/3). If these two do square up against each other in Game 1, that will be a marquee matchup indeed.
ADVANTAGE: STL

SP2: Lance Lynn vs. Jake Peavy
Jake PeavyDid you see Peavy pitch Game 1 of the NLDS? He looked not only sharp stuff-wise, but fired up as can be. I mean, this is a guy who is excited to be back in the postseason and it shows. Lynn has flown under the radar to put up some great numbers this year (2.74 ERA, 181 strikeouts in more than 200 innings), but Peavy was dominant since he came over to the Giants at the deadline (2.17 ERA, 6 of his 7 wins on the year), and I think you have to tip your hat to the veteran exuberance on this one.
ADVANTAGE: SFG

SP3: John Lackey vs. Tim Hudson
John LackeyHere's another ex-Red Sox pitcher brought in specifically for the playoff push, but this time he's playing for St. Louis. Lackey's numbers haven't been as eye-popping as Peavy's since coming to his new team (4.30 ERA, 3-3 record), but he is the PPP to end all PPP's with a career 2.92 postseason ERA in 17 starts, including the seven innings of one-run ball he threw against Los Angeles in the NLDS. Believe it or not, Tim Hudson just won his first ever postseason series at age 38 (remember he played on those famous-for-choking early 2000's Oakland A's teams) and he definitely contributed with his own seven inning, one-run performance against Washington. I think in this battle of veterans, I'm going to give advantage to the one who's slightly younger and has slightly more postseason experience.
ADVANTAGE: STL

SP4: Shelby Miller vs. Ryan Vogelsong
I guess Mike Matheny has determined that Michael Wacha hasn't sufficiently recovered from his late season injury to earn a starting spot here, despite the fact that he was lights out in the 2013 playoffs (4-1 with a 2.63 ERA in 5 starts). Shelby Miller was the opposite of that, giving up a run in his only postseason inning last year, but he pitched decently enough in the NLDS, and he did have a solid year in 2014. Ryan Vogelsong is nothing special, but Bruce Bochy does have long man Tim Lincecum waiting in the 'pen for a potential short start/long relief situation that... oh, never mind, you've heard this before.
ADVANTAGE: SFG

CL: Trevor Rosenthal vs. Santiago Casilla
Trevor RosenthalEvery time Rosenthal gets on the mound he just exudes the feeling that he's going to give up some baserunners. I know that the ninth inning is no joke and the pressure must be even more insane in the postseason, and I know he saved 45 games this year, but there is something to be said about that lights-out confidence that a great closer *cough Greg Holland* should have. But on the other hand it's not like Santiago Casilla inspires that much great confidence: if he did, he likely would have started the season as the Giants closer over Sergio Romo. When in doubt, I have to give the nod to the guy who's had the job all year.
ADVANTAGE: STL

RP's: Pat Neshek, Seth Maness, Randy Choate vs. Sergio Romo, Jean Machi, Jeremy Affeldt
This is a close matchup too. Romo is the former closer but Neshek is the All-Star with an ERA under 2. Maness and Machi are basically the RP versions of Jay and Blanco: both righties with much better ERA's than FIP's (2.91 vs. 3.38 for Maness, 2.58 vs. 3.43 for Machi). Choate and Affeldt are LOOGYs to the extreme. It's even a push when it comes to the long relievers: San Francisco has erstwhile starter Yusmeiro Petit, but St. Louis can counter with hard throwing Carlos Martinez.
ADVANTAGE: PUSH

So these are my opinions on how the two teams facing off for the NL Pennant stack up against one another. Stay tuned tomorrow as I try to complete a preview for the AL version before the game starts at 8pm ET.

Tuesday, October 7, 2014

The Gio Gonzalez/Ryan Vogelsong Matchup we Need

But not the Gio Gonzalez/Ryan Vogelsong matchup we deserve, will be what we see tomorrow, when the Giants and the Nationals face off in San Francisco in another win-or-go-home game for Washington. The Dodgers, meanwhile, have opted to throw their ace / best pitcher in baseball Clayton Kershaw to the mound on short rest against the Cardinals' Shelby Miller in an effort just to survive. There was a time (2012) when Gio Gonzalez was a top tier pitcher, a 20-game winner, a Cy Young candidate, and an unquestioned staff ace. That same year, Ryan Vogelsong - who just the year before had returned to the majors after a five year absence to start 28 games with a sub-3.00 ERA for the Giants - continued his heartwarming comeback story by helping to pitch his club to a World Series championship.

That is not how things turned out this year. To put it in fantasy point terms, in 2012 Gio Gonzalez scored 2,356 points with an average of 73.6 per game. In 2014, his totals dropped to 1,436 and 53.2. Vogelsong's 2012 vs. 2014: 1,729 / 55.8 vs. 1,268 / 39.6. Not necessarily terrible seasons for a pair of #4 starters, but also not the dominant presence you want to finish out a playoff series or keep yourselves alive. In the first three games Bumgarner/Peavy/Hudson matched up well with Strasburg/Zimmermann/Fister, and both managers have chosen to stay the course rather than shake up the routines of their top guys.


But what if there's more to this matchup than meets the eye? Remember, we saw Detroit start Justin Verlander (1,357 / 42.4) in game 2 of their ALDS with Anibal Sanchez (1,191 / 54.1) waiting on the bench. Or, as it turns out, in the bullpen. Verlander was a proven postseason performer (PPP) so he was given the start, but was unceremoniously pulled after five innings with the lead in favor of the better-performing Sanchez. What you see here is the employment of what I like to call the short starter/long reliever strategy, such as we saw with Venezuela in my home town tournament when Carlos Carrasco and Yusmeiro Petit combined to pitch most of the game. (IRL, Petit was just used in a similar long relief capacity during Saturday's 18-inning game, in which he ended up getting the win.)

Where Brad Ausmus got it wrong was that he left Sanchez in the game for only two innings before turning things over to his "bullpen proper," which only served to give up the lead. Where I think Bruce Bochy and Matt Williams will get it right is that they each have formidable pitching weapons at their disposal, and they won't be afraid to use them. Tim Lincecum (1,087 / 32.9) had 2014 stats that took a tumble after a demotion to the bullpen, but keep in mind that demotion came just after he pitched a no-hitter, so his electrifying stuff can't be doubted. Lincecum has also been a dominant PPP both as a starter and out of the pen, with a combined 5-2 record, 2.47 ERA, and WHIP of .878 in his two World Championship runs. Tanner Roark (1,979 / 63.8) made his postseason debut in the aforementioned 18-inning marathon and took the loss, but his stats show that he has been great in the regular season, remaining on a hot streak that started at the end of 2013, where he was also successful in a relief role.

I could be wrong, but pairing a mediocre starter with a potentially lights-out long reliever seems like the perfect game 4 strategy, not only to rest relievers who may have all been a part of a super long game and heinous travel situation recently, but also to get the most out of the most talented members of a pitching staff. That is, unless one team jumps out in front of the other early, but given that these two just played (I'll say it again) 18 INNINGS against each other, that seems like a little too much to hope for. Keep your eye on the box score to see if my predictions come true!

Friday, October 3, 2014

MLB 2014 Postseason: NLDS's

So I did most of the research for these projected lineups a few days ago, but it turns out some of these teams had posted their starting pitchers for the next few games, and Justin Verlander was indeed slated to be Detroit's game 2 starter, despite an underwhelming season in every way. But I know David Price was unavailable after the Tigers needed him to fend off the Royals on the last day of the season, and it's currently turning out OK for Brad Ausmus as Verlander pitched five innings of three-run ball and has turned a two-run lead over to fellow starter Anibal Sanchez. But now it's time to focus on the division serieses of the senior circuit.


The Washington Nationals locked down the best record in the NL, so they will host the wild card Giants this evening. I have to say, without Madison Bumgarner available to start game 1, I'm liking the Nats' chances. We all know the impressive feats that Stephen Strasburg is capable of, Jordan Zimmermann has some major momentum coming off a game 162 no-hitter, Doug Fister actually had the highest points-per-game average on the team (in part due to the smaller sample size after missing the first month of the season with a lat strain), and Tanner Roark has been a revelation since joining the big league club last year. The only inconsistent part of this team has been the back end of the bullpen, as Rafael Soriano lost the closer job to Drew Storen in September. But Tyler Clippard and Aaron Barret have been solid and Matt Thornton was brought in to take care of lefties given the struggles of Jerry Blevins, so in short, the pitchers are looking fine.

The offense, however, is also looking fine. Anthony Rendon has broken out in a big way after once again being asked to fill in at his unnatural position of second base (before the acquisition of Asdrubal Cabrera), Denard Span set a new club record for hits, shortstop Ian Desmond continues to provide power and speed out of a typically light-hitting position on the field, and Adam LaRoche is making a strong case for the team to pick up it's side of his mutual option for 2015. The only disappointments have been injury related: Bryce Harper has been serviceable, despite missing May and June with a thumb injury, just not the offensive force we expected him to be when he broke on the scene at age 19. Ryan Zimmerman, who added a hamstring strain to a similar thumb injury, has basically played himself off third base and is settling in to the next step of his career as a left fielder. The only problem is that Washington has Harper and Jayson Werth at the corners for the foreseeable future, so they might have to get creative in order to get Zimmerman his at bats. But that's a challenge for next year and beyond.


Hosting the other DS is YOUR LOS ANGELES DODGERS! The first thing you notice when looking at this starting lineup is its incredible offensive consistency: the first five hitters have all averaged between 12 and 13 points per game. As you can imagine, it's better to have this kind of batting order than one that's built around one particular big hitter because it's much harder to pitch around people in this situation. The next thing to notice is the incredible financial commitment this team has made to its star players/inherited from the Red Sox: $20 million each to Adrian Gonzalez (who did lead the league in RBI), Matt Kemp, and Carl Crawford (who did heat up at just the right times). But hey at least there's breakout second baseman Dee Gordon making the league minimum.

Things don't look any cheaper on the pitching side with Zack Greinke also making $20 mil and Clayton Kershaw slated to earn a whopping $30 million next year and for the next five years after that. Whether or not the best 1-2 pitching punch in the NL (or possibly all of baseball) is worth that kind of cash is irrelevant: all that matters is that these two take the team on their back and lead them deep into October. Dan Haren has been wildly inconsistent this year and Hyun-jin Ryu is coming off a bout of shoulder inflammation, so it's going to fall squarely on the top two guys to shoulder the load (pun only retroactively intended). I'll bet no one saw veteran Jamey Wright being the most effective right handed reliever in a Dodgers bullpen full of former closers (Brian Wilson, Chris Perez, Brandon League), but that just goes to show the volatility of relief pitchers in this game of ours.


Which brings us to the Cardinals who always seem to show up in the playoffs and who always seem to find new ways to be boringly consistent. This particular St. Louis team did it with solid pitching and just enough offensive contributions to get by. Adam Wainwright might be the best right handed pitcher in the NL (despite the pitch he "grooved" to Cap'n Jeets in the All-Star Game), Lance Lynn has blossomed into a real life #2 starter, the trade for John Lackey worked out very well (or at least better than the trade for Justin Masterson), and Michael Wacha should be mostly back to full strength... mostly. On the back end, Trevor Rosenthal's 45 saves played a meaningful part in helping me win my fantasy championship this year, and All-Star Pat Neshek leads a very versatile setup staff: Carlos Martinez, Marco Gonzales, and Tyler Lyons all started at least 4 games while also coming out of the bullpen.

On the offensive side, Matt Holliday is the only performer who really stands out. Matt Carpenter has regressed HARD to the mean (remember when he racked up like 2,300 fantasy points last year?), Matt Adams has looked awful against lefties (.318 AVG vs. RHP, .190 vs. LHP), Yadier Molina was slowed by injuries, and the trade of Allen Craig has forced guys like Peter Bourjos and Randal Grichuk to be regular contributors in the outfield while we all wait for Oscar Taveras to develop. Offseason acquisition Jhonny Peralta led the team with 21 home runs. This is definitely a scrappy, small-ball, run-manufacturing team (much like the other baseball team from Missouri), and we'll see if they can keep the "best fans in baseball" happy throughout the postseason.


So those are all 10 teams that either participated or are currently participating in the 2014 MLB Postseason. One of these teams will be your next world champion. The others will spend the winter crying into their pillows/golf bags/millions of dollars. Who will it be? The only way to find out is to watch!

Thursday, October 2, 2014

MLB 2014 Postseason: ALDS's

Well, it's time for the American League Division Serieses, and although neither of them will include the A's, my sense of duty as a fan of baseball more than a fan of one team forces me to press on and provide some analysis for the upcoming games. Let's start with the best team in baseball, the one who would have been playing the A's had things turned out differently that fateful Tuesday night: the Anaheim Angels of Orange County which is a different county than Los Angeles County:


It's easy to see why this team was so dominant this year: Mike Scioscia was able to trot out a consistent and devastating offensive attack that couldn't be matched by anyone in their division. They scored the most runs per game in the league (4.77), tied for 3rd in batting average (.259), came in fourth in OPS (.728), and tied for the league in OPS+ (109). Mike Trout is easily the most impressive player in the game right now (even more so since Derek Jeter is retiring), Albert Pujols has shown that he can still mash when his foot's not injured, Erick Aybar can do no wrong, Kole Calhoun had a breakout season when healthy, and Josh Hamilton is still a home run threat when he's in the lineup. Things change a bit if that last guy is not available, because then you have guys like Collin Cowgill and Efren Navarro competing for time in left field, and I'm not sure if rookie C.J. Cron has nailed down the DH spot, but this lineup is still potent enough to deal some damage to any opposing pitcher.

The issue I have with the Angels is their starting pitching. Breakout ace Garrett Richards went down for the year in a freak fielding accident, and while de facto ace Jered Weaver has more experience being an ace, he's not the shut down top of the rotation presence he was in years past (three straight top 5 finishes in Cy Young voting from 2010-12). Somewhat hidden behind Richards's brilliance was the breakout campaign of rookie Matt Shoemaker, who has also been dealing with some injury issues and is completely untested in postseason atmosphere. Lefties C.J. Wilson and Hector Santiago have been pretty mediocre, and it's a good thing teams typically use four-man rotations in the playoffs, because they don't have a fifth starter to speak of. The bullpen is an uncommon strength (even if it might quite match up to the Royals' lights out staff) thanks to the acquisitions of Huston Street and Jason Grilli.

My prediction is that this team allows some stolen bases but otherwise blows Kansas City out of the water. Now onto the other ALDS which starts in approximately 1.5 hours.


The lineups have already been posted for tonight's game, so I didn't even have a chance to believe I got the Orioles one right, but the changes were minor - Nick Hundley in for Caleb Joseph behind the plate and Ryan Flaherty instead of Kelly Johnson at the hot corner. Otherwise you've got your stalwarts such as non-traditional leadoff hitter Nick Markakis setting the table for all around talent Adam Jones and pure masher Nelson Cruz. Alejandro De Aza was a particularly savvy acquisition because it gets a left handed bat in the lineup without forcing either Nelson Cruz or Delmon Young to play in the field. This team will obviously get a lot stronger when Chris Davis returns from his suspension for using Adderall and slots into the #5 slot playing 3B, but until then I certainly hope Buck Showalter's O's can hold off the playoff mainstay Tigers.

It will be a tall order for Baltimore's pitching staff, however, as they have an impressively deep starting five, but no one stopper they can rely on when the chips are down. All four of the pitchers who will presumably be a part of this team's playoff rotation won at least 10 games this year, which is an impressive feat, but it means less over the span of a short series. After the failed Tommy Hunter as closer experiment (which my fantasy team unfortunately bought into), Zach Britton has emerged as a top of the line bullpen threat (1.65 ERA with 37 saves) and Darren O'Day has continued his dominance in the setup role (1.70 ERA, 9.6 K/9). Add to that the acquisition of Andrew Miller for tough lefties (do the Tigers have any tough lefties?) and you have yourself the makings of a team that's hard to beat in the late innings.


Studies have shown that no, the Tigers do not in fact have any tough lefties in their lineup, unless you count switch hitting Victor Martinez, who is only a lefty when he wants to be. They do have one of the toughest righties of all time in Miguel Cabrera, whose injury-riddled season would be a career year for most other hitters in the game. Ian Kinsler was 100% more effective than Prince Fielder (for whom he was traded) this year, Nick Castellanos put up fine numbers as a rookie, Torii Hunter continues to do his thing, and the emergence of J.D. Martinez as a potent middle of the order bat was a big part of why this team was able to trade center fielder Austin Jackson for second ace David Price. The only change from my projected lineup is at shortstop where the recently-heating-up Andrew Romine will play over the more defensively consistent Eugenio Suarez. Let's just say that Detroit will be very excited when Jose Iglesias returns from his shin splints next year.

Where this team is nearly unmatched is in the starting pitching department. Max Scherzer and David Price might be the most intimidating 1-2 punch in baseball, and following them up with Anibal Sanchez and Rick Porcello is nothing less than a savage beatdown. Let's also not forget about Justin Verlander, whose season has not gone according to plan (both on the mound and in front of the bathroom mirror, posing for nude pics with his girlfriend), but we've seen him turn up the gas in the playoffs too many times to count him out from being a strong factor here. This is a slightly bizarre suggestion, but where Verlander actually might be most useful in the 2014 playoffs is coming out of the bullpen, since Joe Nathan hardly inspires the confidence he used to and I think Joba Chamberlain's mountain man beard will make him too top-heavy to be truly effective. We'll see what first-year manager Brad Ausmus does in late and close situations.

Wednesday, October 1, 2014

Why I'm Glad the A's Lost

Who or what does one root for when one roots for a baseball team? My first instinct is to say the players, because they're the ones who actually make up the team. They're the ones that you cheer on the field and it's their level of play that determines whether the team wins or loses. But it's also more than that, because most fans of a specific team will support any player who wears that team's uniform. In fact I know there are some fans who root for the more abstract concept of organizational identity regardless of who's on the field. But behind every organization is another group of people: there's an owner who makes the financial decisions, a whole suite of front office executives who make the personnel decisions, and a coaching staff to make the on-the-field strategic decisions.

So now that we've identified three distinct aspects that make up a baseball team - the roster, the franchise, and the management - the question is, can someone be considered a true fan of a "team" if one or more of these aspects are completely at odds with each other in that person's mind?

This is the question that I - and hopefully many Oakland Athletics fans - are asking themselves this morning, after the A's suffered a heartbreaking(ly mismanaged) loss to the Kansas City Royals in last night's AL Wild Card Game. If you've followed the A's for the past couple years, you'd see an extremely likable group of guys on the field every day. The home run tunnel they do in the dugout? Pure class! That All-Star Game video that Josh Donaldson, Sean Doolittle, and Derek Norris did? Hilarious! Josh Reddick exposing himself in a celebratory picture when they finally clinched a playoff spot? You can't teach this stuff in the minor leagues and it makes them a heckuva lot of fun to watch.

http://i.kinja-img.com/gawker-media/image/upload/s--NVtizwjl--/c_fit,fl_progressive,q_80,w_636/vcsagb7tppoin8vitgu7.jpg
I have all the respect and affection in the world for the A's players and they deserve a heckuva lot better than the managerial situation they had to endure last night. I find Monday-morning-quarterbacking to be a fruitless and frustrating venture for the most part, but when there were this many outrage-inducing decisions in a win-or-go-home playoff game, a little second guessing is in order. I would like to talk about two such decisions, the first of which is the obvious elephant (or perhaps donkey?) in the room: why didn't Adam Dunn start this game? I know he has hit poorly against James Shields (.586 OPS against him with 5 walks and 16 strikeouts), but Brandon Moss's OPS vs. Shields was even worse (.429) and he ended up hitting two home runs. It was a head scratcher to say the least, especially when all anyone could talk about before the game was how 14-year veteran Adam Dunn had finally made it to the playoffs for the first time in his last season before retirement.

It seemed as though this move would be overlooked, however, when the A's took a commanding four run lead into the 8th inning. That lead became three runs when Jon Lester started to struggle and was pulled after 7 1/3 innings, leaving two runners on base. And who should come in to pitch? Not lights out closer Sean Doolittle - who is perfectly capable of a five-out save, as he proved by pitching two full innings later in this game - but setup man Luke Gregerson who blew 8 (eight [EIGHT]) saves this season. As you hear all the time when you listen to investors, "past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results," but this guy pitched in 11 save opportunities in 2014 and fucked up in nearly three quarters of them. What's more, he allowed 43% of his inherited runners to score this year (14% higher than league average). And what did he do? Allowed two more runs, cutting the lead to one. Big surprise. Welcome to free agency, dude.

Sean Doolittle gave up the tying run in the ninth (which of course would have still resulted in a save had Gregerson somehow not been so Gregerson-esque), which at least provided the promise of seeing Adam Dunn get a pinch hitting appearance. But when light-hitting second baseman Eric Sogard came up to bat in the bottom of the 10th with two outs and nobody on base, who should step up to the on-deck circle but ... light-hitting second baseman Nick Punto. I figuratively lost my shit when I saw this move take place. Literally, that's the figurative reaction I had. Don't get me wrong, I love me some Puntissimo, but he's a clubhouse presence/defensive replacement kind of guy, not the one you bring up to pinch hit with the season on the line.

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Punto strikes out looking, but that's not necessarily terrible (even though Sogard could have done that himself) since the A's weren't threatening and you want to save your best weapon for when you have the best chance to score. The A's had just that chance in the 12th inning with Josh Reddick on third and a righty coming up against a righty pitcher... and Alberto Callaspo comes in to pinch hit. It's hard to second guess this move since Callaspo got a base hit to give the A's the lead - and because Bob Melvin claimed he thought Dunn would just have been walked in that situation, setting up a double play for Derek Norris (who hit into 12 of them this year). But after Norris struck out, first base was not open for Nick Punto... who was allowed to bat a second time. Against a right handed pitcher (Jason Frasor) who has given up a .500 lifetime batting average to... Adam Dunn (albeit in only two at bats - one RBI single and one strikeout).

To not start Dunn against a pitcher who has owned him in the past, I can almost understand. But to not even give him a pinch hitting appearance, against a right handed pitcher, in the middle of a game-altering rally, in the only chance he would ever have to play in a postseason game, is indefensible and unconscionable. It's a complete and utter lack of respect for a player who was acquired FOR THE SOLE PURPOSE of playing in this one game. Not only that, it's a slap in the face to all of Dunn's fans, anyone who tweeted that he had played in 2,001 games without a playoff appearance, and anyone who enjoys watching games in which a team's best players actually get a chance to play. It bespeaks a smug, dismissive attitude toward any decision-making process, either analytical or emotional. So unless it comes out that Adam Dunn had a legitimate reason for being unavailable last night - he was injured, he was sick, he made a Brad Pitt joke within earshot of Billy Beane - there has got to be some serious explanation and accountability for this ignominious end to his career.

"What are we going to do tonight, Breane?"
"Same thing we do every night, Melvy:
LEAVE OUR BEST PLAYERS ON THE BENCH!"
But as much flack as Bob Melvin took last night - and trust me, he deserved all of it and more - it's simply not possible that he was the sole person responsible for this fiasco. It's well documented that Billy Beane is an aggressively hands-on general manager, and I don't believe for a minute that Melvin was able to make such a controversial starting lineup decision before running it upstairs. If he didn't, you can bet the next press release coming out of Oakland will be announcing the second managerial firing in three days. If he did and it turns out that Beane was behind it all, maybe we should see a press release announcing the second general managerial firing in nine days. Even before last night, I would argue that the A's need some new leadership. Billy Beane has stated before that his "shit doesn't work in the playoffs" and that was true even when he had sound strategies, such as pursuing on-base percentage. The pitching-and-defense kick resulted in a long fallow period, and two years into the platoon-split obsession, we've seen nothing but heartbreaking losses so far. Of course the one constant obsession Beane has had throughout his tenure was trading away all his best players for the sake of making headlines and cementing his legacy as the most electrifying general manager in all of sports. ("Watch closely as I turn Matt Holliday into... Michael Taylor!") So why am I happy the A's lost? Beyond the usual sour grapes reasons - an offense with a one-legged Josh Donaldson, a one-handed Geovany Soto, and minus Coco Crisp altogether would not get far in the upcoming tournament - I think it's important that people take notice of this farce that's going on in Oakland's front office right now (most aspects of which would be overlooked had the A's won last night), which will hopefully inspire some changes for next season.

Keep in mind, these are all the angry ramblings of a heartbroken and disgruntled fan, and after a few months of obsessing over the rest of the playoffs, the winter meetings, the hot stove season, and spring training, I'll be ready to cheer on the green and gold again. I just need some time to grieve.