Tuesday, December 26, 2017

All-Acquired 2018 Pitchers - Christmas Update

Well, the gifts have been exchanged, the traditional Christmas hams / lasagnas / Chinese takeouts have been consumed, and the Scrooge-like world of business is preparing to start up again.  So what better time to continue my dive into baseball's All-Acquired landscape and examine the top pitchers who have landed with new teams so far this offseason.

* STARTING PITCHER #1


- AL: Shohei Ohtani (Angels, posted from Japan, minor league deal)
The market for starting pitchers has been notably slow this year, due in no small part to the time it took for the Shohei Ohtani situation to develop.  The particularities of the rules governing both how players from Japan's Nippon Professional Baseball can transition to the Major Leagues and the signing of international amateurs ensured that pretty much all 30 MLB clubs were on fairly equal financial footing when it came to signing this two way superstar.  After narrowing the field down to seven (mostly west coast) teams, Ohtani ultimately decided to sign with the Angels, because of Anaheim's relative proximity to his home country and for the chance to play on the same team as (arguably) the best player in the world, Mike Trout.

All the hype surrounding Ohtani doesn't mean that he's without question marks.  An ankle injury limited him to just five starts on the mound and just over 200 at bats in NPB last year, although he played well in limited duty, posting a 3.20 ERA and a .942 OPS (which translates to 55.4 fantasy points per game as a pitcher and 10.6 PPG as a batter).  It was also revealed (i.e. leaked) that the 23-year-old (24 in July) has a sprained UCL in his pitching elbow, but apparently this information was known to teams during the negotiating process and hasn't impacted his value.  It'll be interesting to see if Ohtani gets the opening day start for the Angels over a more established option such as Garret Richards, or if they instead choose to utilize him as the DH in his first MLB appearance.

- NL: Jhoulys Chacin (Brewers, 2-year deal)
Earlier in the offseason, MLB Trade Rumors published a piece suggesting that the Brewers were in a good position to make a play for some of the top pitching talent on the free agent market, but to this point, the biggest action they've been involved in was this relatively modest mid-rotation pickup.  After bouncing around the league over the last three seasons, Chacin rebuilt his value in the pitcher's haven of San Diego last year, earning himself a deal worth twice the length and nearly nine times the dollar amount than the one he signed with the Padres last year.  Even though Chacin pitched notably worse outside pitcher friendly PetCo Park in 2017, let's not forget that he had good success in the first half of his career pitching for the Rockies.


* STARTING PITCHER #2


- AL: Mike Minor (Rangers, 3-year deal)
Mike Minor broke into the big leagues as a starting pitcher with the Braves, and had a couple of really solid years, culminating in a Divisional All-Star appearance in 2013.  But then shoulder problems derailed his career, until he resurfaced in 2017 with the Royals as a shutdown reliever, even taking over as the team's closer late in the year.  Given the fact that the market for relief pitching has been robust this offseason, Minor might have been able to maximize his earnings had he chosen to sign in that role, but he apparently preferred the opportunity to compete for a rotation spot.

- NL: Tyler Chatwood (Cubs, 3-year deal)
With the addition of Chatwood, it appears that the Cubs now have a full rotation (if you count swingman Mike Montgomery, who also reportedly prefers to start), but I wouldn't say that has necessarily taken them out of the running for the winter's top free agent starters.  Quite the contrary, in fact, since Chatwood also spent some time pitching out of the bullpen in 2017 and could return to that role next year in a worst case scenario situation.


* STARTING PITCHER #3

- AL: Mike Fiers (Tigers, 1-year deal)
Fiers struggled through the worst full season of his career in 2017 pitching for the World Champion Houston Astros, and then was not tendered an arbitration contract after being left off the playoff roster.  The rebuilding Tigers took a shot at the hard thrower, undoubtedly with the hope that he'll improve his performance enough that he'll draw the attention of a contender and fetch back some useful prospects at the trade deadline.

- NL: Brandon McCarthy (Braves, trade with Dodgers)
McCarthy represented the main return for the Braves when they shipped Matt Kemp to the Dodgers in a piece of luxury tax payroll manipulation.  The lanky mid-rotation arm with a silver tongue on Twitter is also controllable through the 2019 season via on option on the deal he signed with Los Angeles back in 2015.




* STARTING PITCHER #4

- AL: Matt Moore (Rangers, trade with Giants)
In acquiring Moore, Texas was able to buy low on a promising rotation option while also helping San Francisco clear some payroll from their books for more acquisitions of their own.  The lefty's disappointing 2017 season was still enough for the Giants to exercise their $9mm club option over Moore, and if he performs well, he will be controllable through 2019 through yet another club option left over from the 2012 extension he signed with his original team the Rays.

- NL: Yovani Gallardo (Brewers, 1-year deal)
Based on the incentives built into Gallardo's contract, it's not clear whether Milwaukee will use him as a starter or as a reliever next year.  (For what it's worth, Roster Resource has the homegrown Brewer in the fourth spot of their projected 2018 rotation as of this writing.)  It's all but certain that Gallardo won't approach the heights he reached during his first stint with the Brewers, but the club is in need of rotation depth, as they'll be without staff ace Jimmy Nelson for the early part of next season due to injury.


* STARTING PITCHER #5

- AL: Doug Fister (Rangers, 1-year deal w/club option)
In yet another move by the Texas Rangers, Fister was the first notable free agent to be signed during the 2017-18 offseason, inking his deal two days before the close of November.  Fister hasn't put up good numbers since a brilliant 2014 campaign with the Nationals and his velocity has been steadily declining for years, but you could definitely do worse as a flier on a low-risk, back of the rotation option.
Honorable Mention: Asher Wojciechowski (Orioles, minor league deal)

- NL: Albert Suarez (Diamondbacks, Rule 5 Draft from Giants)
Suarez served as an unremarkable rookie swingman for San Francisco in 2016, starting 12 of 22 games and racking up 84 innings.  But after posting an ERA over 5.00 in 18 relief appearances last year, the Giants non-tendered him and re-signed him to a minor league deal, only to see him get plucked by Arizona in the Rule 5 Draft.  It's far more likely that the Diamondbacks will use Suarez out of the bullpen than as a starter, but like I said, the market for starting pitching has been extremely thin this year.
Honorable Mention: Jacob Turner (Marlins, unspecified deal, unconfirmed)


* CLOSER

- AL: Fernando Rodney (Twins, 1-year deal w/club option)
The arrow-shooting veteran reliever surprised many when he emerged as a solid ninth inning option for the playoff bound Diamondbacks last year, but even at the age of 40, Rodney shows no signs of slowing down.  The three-time representative for the Dominic Rebublic in the World Baseball Classic will now head to another 2017 Wild Card team in hopes of anchoring the bullpen of a Minnesota team that has aspirations on becoming a perennial contender.

- NL: Yoshihisa Hirano (Diamondbacks, 2-year deal)
I don't know if Hirano will begin his MLB career by closing games for Arizona, but the 33-year-old has occupied that role for the NPB's Orix Buffaloes for the last six years.  While he's a distant second in the hype department as far as players coming over from Japan this offseason, Hirano actually had a superior season to Shohei Ohtani in 2017, posting a 2.67 ERA over 57.1 relief innings and racking up 29 saves in the process.


* RELIEF PITCHER #1

- AL: Yusmeiro Petit (Athletics, 2-year deal w/ club option)
Even as multi-inning bullpen weapons are becoming more popular than ever, Petit garnered precious little attention while leading all relief pitchers with 90.1 innings over just 60 appearances in 2017 (which includes one start).  The Venezuelan long man was one of the first relievers to come off the board, signing just one day after Fister, and one can't help but wonder if he could have earned a larger payday by waiting until the veritable run on relief pitchers that took place during the Winter Meetings in December.

- NL: Anthony Swarzak (Mets, 2-year deal)
After signing what could only be described as one of last offseason's most successful minor league deals (for team AND player), former Twins swingman Anthony Swarzak not only netted the White Sox a decent prospect from Milwaukee at the 2017 trade deadline, but he also earned himself a pretty good free agent contract in the process.  Mets ownership has taken some flak recently for not communicating a clear offseason plan to their front office, but bringing Swarzy into the fold seems like a pretty strong way to start this offseason.


* RELIEF PITCHER #2

- AL: Jim Johnson (Angels, trade with Braves)
Given his history as a closer, the sinkerballing Johnson won't come close to filling the multi-inning hole left in Anaheim by Yusmeiro Petit's departure, but he should definitely... throw some innings for the Angels in 2018.  Interestingly enough, it was also Johnson's part time role as Atlanta's ninth inning man last year that placed him so high on this list, since I've arranged it by 2017 fantasy points, and we all know how much saves tend to pad point totals.

- NL: Pat Neshek (Phillies, 2-year deal w/ club option)
This offseason marks the second consecutive year that Neshek has been acquired by Philadelphia, only last year it was via a trade with the Astros.  He qualifies for the All-Acquired team once again because the sidearmer was traded to Colorado at the 2017 deadline, where he pitched excellently and appeared in the NL Wild Card game before hitting the open market.  With a couple of other win-now acquisitions to Philly's name so far this offseason, it's distinctly possible that Neshek could be a part of Philadelphia's next contending roster.

* RELIEF PITCHER #3

- AL: Juan Nicasio (Mariners, 2-year deal)
Juan Nicasio has the rare distinction of signing a contract worth fewer years than the number of teams he played for in his platform year.  In his first successful season as a full time reliever, Nicasio was curiously shipped from the Pirates to the Phillies, since Pittsburgh ownership reportedly didn't want to see him help a fellow NL Central playoff contender, but he nevertheless was flipped to the Cardinals, despite the fact that it was too late for him to be eligible for the playoffs.  Nicasio likely won't challenge the electric Edwin Diaz for Seattle's closer position, but his live arm definitely makes for a plus bullpen piece.

- NL: Brandon Morrow (Cubs, 2-year deal w/ vesting option)
After the way Morrow was abused in the 2017 playoffs by Dodgers manager Dave Roberts, I'm surprised any team was willing to offer him anything longer than a one-year, make-good, let's-see-if-your-arm-doesn't-fall-off contract.  But the former reliever turned swingman turned starter turned back to reliever will have another chance to pitch near the top of a playoff contender's bullen in 2018 on the north side of Chicago.


* RELIEF PITCHER #4

- AL: Joe Smith (Astros, 2-year deal)
After performing very well for both the Blue Jays and the Indians in 2017 - completing a two-year stretch where he pitched for four different teams - the sidearming Smith has latched on with the defending champs to help bolster a bullpen that lost such supporting pieces as Luke Gregerson, Tyler Clippard, and Francisco Liriano.


- NL: Bryan Shaw (Rockies, 3-year deal w/ vesting option)
Shaw is one of those pitchers whose great stuff for some reason doesn't translate well to fantasy points.  From 2014 thru '16, he averaged 1.4 rWAR per season (Wins Above Replacement, per Baseball Reference), yet he averaged just 8.8 fantasy points per year during that span.  Either way, his real world talents were recognized by the Rockies, and rewarded by the longest contract bestowed upon a relief pitcher so far during this offseason.


* RELIEF PITCHER HONORABLE MENTIONS

- AL
Hector Rondon (Astros, 2-year deal)
Emilio Pagan (Athletics, trade with Mariners)
Zack Duke (Twins, 1-year deal)
Jhan Marinez (Orioles, minor league deal)
Josh Edgin (Orioles, minor league deal)


- NL
Tommy Hunter (Phillies, 2-year deal, unconfirmed)
Steve Cishek (Cubs, 2-year deal)
Chase Whitley (Braves, waiver claim from Rays)
Luke Gregerson (Cardinals, 2-year deal w/ vesting option)
Jared Hughes (Reds, 2-year deal w/ option)
Brad Boxberger (Diamondbacks, trade with Rays)


Sunday, December 24, 2017

All-Acquired 2018 Batters - Christmas Update

For many people, the holiday season is an opportunity to enjoy some time off from work, reconnect with rarely-seen relatives, and indulge in a little shameless capitalism.  But for the baseball fan in the midst of a tedious offseason, it's the perfect time to fire up the Hot Stove and take stock of which players have changed teams so far.  So as Santa Claus hitches up his reindeer to deliver gifts to Baby Jesus, or something, here's the first preliminary version of the All-Acquired Rosters for 2018.

* CATCHER

- AL: Welington Castillo (White Sox, 2-year deal w/ club option)
The man known as "Beef" played well enough with the Orioles in 2017 to opt against exercising his player option to stick around with the club for a second year.  Castillo's next trip to the open market netted him a two year deal with an option from the rebuilding White Sox, which could possibly provide a glimpse into their projected window of contention.
Honorable Mention: Derek Norris (Tigers, minors deal, suspended)



- NL: Chris Iannetta (Rockies, 2-year deal w/ vesting/club option)
When the Rockies brought back a catcher who played the first half of his career in Colorado, they quite possibly took themselves out of the running for a reunion with the offseason's top free agent backstop Jonathan Lucroy.  Iannetta should welcome his insertion into a rather unsettled situation behind the plate at Coors Field after being a member of a three-part timeshare in Arizona.
Honorable Mention: Jose Lobaton (Mets, minors deal)


* FIRST BASE

- AL: Yonder Alonso (Indians, 2-year deal w/ vesting/club option)
After watching their longtime first baseman sign with the Phillies (see below), the Indians struck a deal with the breakout former top prospect who embraced the fly ball revolution and more than tripled his career high home run total in 2017, even while playing at a pair of spacious home parks.  Alonso's production did tail off significantly during the second half (right after he made his first All-Star team), and he does have a significant platoon split, but Cleveland is in the unique position of having an All-World DH who can play first against left handed starters.
Honorable Mention: Ryon Healy (Mariners, trade with Athletics, see below)

Image from NBC Sports

- NL: Carlos Santana
(Phillies, 3-year deal w/ club option)
The Phillies, like the White Sox, are another club in the midst of a rebuild who nevertheless embarked on a fairly sizeable free agent outlay.  Santana got one more year on his contract than Castillo got in Chicago, but he's also a much more significant force in the lineup, given his power bat, excellent plate discipline, and prized defense, and should serve as a clear sign that Philadelphia has plans to be relevant again in the near future.  "Slamtana's" acquisition is also a clear sign that 2017 rookie phenom Rhys Hoskins's future is as an outfielder rather than a first baseman.
Honorable Mention: Matt Adams (Nationals, 1-year deal)


* SECOND BASE

- AL: Ian Kinsler (Angels, trade with Tigers)
Here we have the first All-Acquried player to change teams via trade rather than free agent signing.  The acquisition of Kinsler fills a gaping hole in Anaheim's keystone position, and was one of four big ticket moves the Angels made to try and put themselves in a position to chase down the Astros in the AL West, three of which we'll cover here. (The first move, chronologically speaking, was to re-sign oufielder Justin Upton, who was acquired during the 2017 season.)
Honorable Mention: Andrew Romine (Mariners, waiver claim, also from Tigers)


- NL: Starlin Castro (Marlins, trade with Yankees)
While Castro went to Miami largely as a way to offset some of the salary changing hands in the massive Giancarlo Stanton blockbuster (see below), he also fills a need for the Marlins after they shipped out their incumbent second baseman Dee Gordon in a separate trade (see a different section below).  It's unclear whether the powerful Castro will ever suit up for Miami or if he'll be flipped to try and shed more payroll, but unless he goes to an AL club, it's likely that he'll maintain his position on this list.
Honorable Mention: Alen Hanson (Giants, minors deal, unconfirmed, see a third section below)


* THIRD BASE

- AL: Ryon Healy (Mariners, trade from Athletics)
When Seattle acquired the power hitting Healy from the A's in what proved to be the offseason's first major transaction, they brought him in to play first base, despite the fact that he spent almost as much time at the hot corner (34 games) as he did at first (39 games) in 2017.  Of course, he's not a great defender in either spot, as evidenced by his 78 games at DH in 2017, but for this All-Acquired thought experiment, it simply makes the most sense to put him here, iron glove be damned.

Honorable Mention 1: Ryan Schimpf (Rays, trade with Padres)
Honorable Mention 2: Christian Arroyo (Rays, trade with Giants, the main return for...)

Image from MLB Trade Rumors

- NL: Evan Longoria (Giants, trade with Rays)
One of the big storylines heading into the 2017-18 offseason was whether the Rays would try to add to their roster and push for contention or sell off some of their highly desirable controllable players and embark on a rebuild.  I'd say that trading the longtime face of their franchise Evan Longoria (who remains under contract until at least 2022) is a pretty clear sign of their intentions.  Whether this leads to trades of coveted starters Chris Archer and/or Jake Odorizzi, we can only guess, but for now, it's safe to say that San Francisco has a better option at the hot corner than hoping for a career resurgence from Pablo Sandoval...

Rather than bury him in an "Honorable Mention" tag, I'd like to point out that Chase Headley would be first in line to serve as the NL All-Acquired team's DH, in the event that the Senior Circuit ever decides to adopt the 20th century way of playing baseball.  I was a little surprised when the Yankees shipped Headley back to the Padres, his original team, since it created yet another hole in New York's infield, but it also saves Brian Cashman's team roughly $13mm in their all important quest to stay under the luxury tax threshold.


* SHORTSTOP

- AL: Zack Cozart (Angels, 3-year deal)
It was often speculated that Cozart, the brilliant defensive shortstop who also broke out with the bat last year, would have to consider a position change in order to maximize his earnings in free agency.  And that's exactly what happened, since there's no way that the Angels will even consider moving Andrelton Simmons, who is arguably the game's best defender.  Instead, Cozart will slot in at third base, where, even if his offense regresses, he should still provide surplus value with his glove.  However, given the players acquired by the AL so far, it makes sense to keep him at his natural position for our purposes.
Honorable Mention: Aledmys Diaz (Blue Jays, trade with Cardinals)

- NL: Freddy Galvis (Padres, trade with Phillies)
It's no secret that Galvis is meant solely as a placeholder to keep the shortstop position warm in San Diego until highly touted 18-year-old prospect Fernando Tatis Jr. is ready to step in full time.  And considering Philadelphia has its own MLB-ready shortstop prospect (J.P. Crawford) waiting in the wings, this trade made tremendous sense for everyone involved.  It's unlikely that Galvis will approach the power numbers he put up over the last two years now that he's moving to spacious PetCo Park, but he should at least provide passable defense at a fairly reasonable salary.
Honorable Mention: Charlie Culberson (Braves, trade with Dodgers)


* OUTFIELD (CORNER)

Image from CBS New York

- AL1: Giancarlo Stanton (Yankees, trade with Marlins)
- AL2: Denard Span (Rays, trade with Giants)

Without a doubt, the biggest move of this offseason so far has been the trade of NL MVP Giancarlo Stanton, and his record-setting contract, in a blatant cost-cutting move by the new Marlins ownership, continuing a tried and true tradition of fan-enraging fire sales in South Florida.  Seriously, if you have any doubts about how fans in Miami feel about how their team has been run, you need to listen to this interview (hat tip Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors).  But back to the baseball side of things, this trade puts two of the top three fantasy point scorers in the same lineup for 2018: #1 overall batter Charlie Blackmon (2,859) barely beat out Stanton (2,833), who finished just above his new teammate (and AL Rookie of the Year) Aaron Judge (2,765).  It's no question the Yankees are going to be a force to be reckoned with next year.

In a similar situation to Starlin Castro in Miami, Denard Span went to Tampa Bay mainly as a means of offsetting some of Evan Longoria's salary.  But if the Rays continue to sell, Span could be a useful roster piece, despite the fact that he really shouldn't play center field anymore, or Tampa could try to flip him to try to get some of his salary off the books.  Looking ahead to my Honorable Mentions, Stephen Piscotty had a pretty disappointing season with St. Louis last year, but if you're looking for more of a long term building block than a declining veteran, he could be a good corner option.
Honorable Mention 1: Stephen Piscotty (Athletics, trade with Cardinals)
Honorable Mention 2: Jabari Blash (Yankees, trade with Padres)


- NL1: Marcell Ozuna (Cardinals, trade with Marlins)
- NL2: Matt Kemp (Dodgers, trade with Braves)

Given their "everything must go" attitude, it's no surprise that the Marlins have provided each league with their top-scoring All-Acquired player so far.  Marcell Ozuna fulfills the Cardinal's search for an impact bat, while also allowing them to deal away some of their outfield surplus for prospects (see above).  It's unclear whether "The Big Bear" will be able to maintain his 150-point increase in OPS from last year, but he's got two more years of control through arbitration, which should help put St. Louis right back into the fight for the NL Central.

Matt Kemp is yet another player whose acquisition was strictly financially based, as the extremely complicated five-player swap between Los Angeles and Atlanta was engineered purely to help get the Dodgers under the luxury tax threshold.  But until LA is able to flip Kemp elsewhere (which should include a pretty big "if"), he places here in a weak all-acquired outfield market.
Honorable Mention: Shane Peterson (Padres, minors deal, unconfirmed)


* CENTER FIELD

- AL: Dee Gordon (Mariners, trade with Marlins)
While Gordon has spent his entire career to date as a middle infielder, he wasn't about to bump superstar Robinson Cano off the keystone position upon his acquisition by Seattle, so a position change was going to be in the cards.  I'm not personally a fan of the inconsistency in terms of established/projected new positions in this All-Acquired list (given that I've placed Zack Cozart at shortstop rather than third base), but sometimes you need to do some clever maneuvering in order to maximize potential production.

Honorable Mention 1: Leonys Martin (Tigers, 1-year deal)
Honorable Mention 2: Jaycob Brugman (Orioles, trade with Athletics)

- NL: Magneuris Sierra (Marlins, trade with Cardinals)
The center field market in the NL has been virtually nonexistent - Sierra patrolled center for just seven games of his 22-game cup of coffee in 2017 (which was also his MLB debut), but has spent the majority of his minor league career there.  The next best option is former Yankees farmhand Mason Williams, who reportedly joined the Reds on a minor league deal, but he has just 25 MLB games on his resume, spread out over the last three years.  Another interesting option is to move slugger Marcell Ozuna back to center, where he has spent the majority of his MLB games, and was a regular as recently as 2016, which would open up the second corner outfield spot to utility option Alen Hanson, who played a just-enough-to-qualify 20 games in right field, split between the PIrates and the White Sox.  Hanson's deal with the Giants has not technically been confirmed (I'm not counting the post on his instagram), but I find that MLB TR is rarely wrong about these things.


* DESIGNATED HITTER

- AL: Shohei Ohtani (Angels, posted from Japan, minors deal)
Outside of the Giancarlo Stanton trade saga (or maybe even said trade saga included), the pursuit of Japanese two-way star Shohei Ohtani was the biggest story of this offseason.  The implications of whether he'll be allowed to develop as both a hitter and a pitcher are fascinating, but what's perhaps even more so is Ohtani's willingness to sacrifice a possibly historic payday by choosing to make the jump to MLB now, rather than waiting a few short years to qualify for international free agency.  While he has the chance to log some significant playing time at DH for the Angels in addition to serving as their ace pitcher (which would throw my baseball database into complete disarray), I'll cover his story more completely in my next post, dealing with All-Acquired pitchers.