Leo Lions: In-Depth Analysis

With a week of regular fantasy season left until the four-team Astrology Division playoffs, the Leo Lions' pedestrian 9-9 record doesn't look like it'll get them a ticket to the postseason. But since we just finished their birthday month, it's time for their In-Depth Analysis feature. I don't know much about the Leo sign, as it has one of the least informative Wikipedia articles around (maybe the stars have aligned to make everyone born in late summer collectively inept at IT), but I do know that they have one of only four astrological signs whose Zodiac symbol corresponds to an actual major sports team. (Bonus points if you can name the other three - I'll give you a hint: they've all been covered by this feature.)

The biggest piece of recent news involving Leo was when their second-highest offensive scorer was suspended two weeks ago after testing positive for PEDs. I wish I could say that Melky Cabrera was the latest player to fall into the synthetic testosterone trap, but the problem is apparently more widespread than anyone but Victor Conte could have possibly imagined. The Melk Man ends his season with a respectable 1,755 points, and up until this weekend he was still leading the NL in hits (Andrew McCutchen just now overtook him by one). Luckily for the Leos, their highest offensive scorer is also the highest scorer in all of MLB - despite the fact that he spent most of the first month of the season hitting .402 for the AAA Salt Lake Bees. (Bees?) Yes, not only is Mike Trout (2,253) the only batter to maintain an average of 20 or more points per game (21.5), but he's also the youngest player ever to have a 20 HR, 40 SB season, plus he leads the AL in the latter category - along with runs scored, AVG, SLG, OPS and OPS+. (He trails Joe Mauer by .004 in the last of the triple slash triple crown categories.) A ROY/MVP season is not out of the question, even if the Angels (hopefully) remain out of the playoff hunt.

Even without Cabrera, the Leo team still has plenty of viable outfielders ready to contribute. The first, pushing Trout to LF (cuz he's eligible there too) is Adam Jones (1,684), a pillar of the Baltimore community who's working hard to justify his megadeal with the Orioles both on and off the field. Playing across the outfield from Trout, is fellow top prospect Jason Heyward (1,744), whose bounceback season couldn't have come at a better time for the surprise-contender Braves. The next two outfielders, and thus the best candidates for DH, are also both centerfielders, giving Leo four such players on their active roster. B.J. Upton (1,296) is a more complete hitter but Colby Rasmus (1,259) has slightly more power (while also playing a slightly better centerfield). While they do hit from opposite sides of the plate, both struggle against lefties, so a platoon doesn't seem all that viable.

While the outfield is deep, the Leo infield is not without its stars as well. Two former AL MVPs line up at 2B and 3B: Dustin Pedroia (1,431) won the award in 2008 and Alex Rodriguez (1,160) took it the year before. While waiting for A-Rod to recover from a fractured left hand (suffered at the hand of recently-perfect Felix Rodriguez a month ago), the Lions will have to rely on Pablo Sandoval (893), known as Kung Fu Panda, but I like to refer to him as Undeserving All-Star. They've also got some depth at SS, with reds rookie Zack Cozart (1,140) and the second Oriole on the team J.J. Hardy (1,184) vying for the positional lead in points. The team is in somewhat of a transitional state at 1B, where the injured Todd Helton's (715) star is falling. Mark Reynolds (869) has struggled at the position, but Anthony Rizzo (584) is quickly on his way towards taking that mantle.

On paper, before the start of 2012, the Leo starting rotation looked a lot less intimidating than it looks now. Madison Bumgarner (1,980) was the only starter ranked under 100 and was projecting as a No. 3 starter at best for the Giants, but he's already eclipsed his 2011 point total by over 100 points and is pitching like a No. 1 even on a pitching staff that includes Matt Cain. All-Star Matt Harrison (1,578) has blossomed into the Rangers' most consistent starter overtaking fellow Leos Yu Darvish (1,166, struggles transitioning to America) and Colby Lewis (979, injury). No one could have predicted that Chris Capuano (1,500) would post the best ERA of his career at age 33, and Max Scherzer (1,480) has really stepped up his game for the Tigers, as he's leading the AL in K/9IP rate. Rounding out the rotation is another Dodger Chad Billingsley (1,239), who has continued his trend of starting slow and ramping it up as the season goes on (he has a 1.80 ERA in 7 second-half starts, as opposed to a 4.30 ERA in his 18 tries before the break).

Leo's best closer on paper, Drew Storen (142), missed most of the season following surgery to remove bone chips in his right elbow, and found his closer's role successfully taken over by Tyler Clippard upon his return. That puts Huston Street (1,240) as the team's top stopper, but he's been battling his own series of injuries this year, the latest being a strained calf that's kept him out of action since early August. Then their second backup option for saves was basically neutralized when Brett Myers (884) was traded from the Astros to the White Sox. Without a proven healthy closer, the team has limped into last place in the league in saves - but surprisingly their pitching staff leads the league in strikeouts. They're a middle of the road team in pretty much every other category.

Looking at the numbers, I think it's mathematically impossible for Leo to secure a post-season berth. Libra and Aries are 3 wins ahead in the Positive division, ditto for Capricorn in the Negative division, and it looks like Cancer will secure the 4th seed this week with a win over Scorpio - the two teams are currently tied with 10 wins apiece, and Cancer has a sizable lead in points... over everybody, strange as it seems. The astrology playoffs start the week after the first round of my actual fantasy playoffs end, so if I get eliminated, I'll spend more time tracking these rosters through the post-season. If I'm still in the hunt, though, expect these posts to be somewhat less frequent.

Cancer Crabs: In-Depth Analysis

Those of you who follow both the Zodiacal calendar and this blog will know that I'm far behind schedule for an In-Depth Analysis profile on a fantasy team very close to my heart: the Cancer Crabs. Besides having two of the most unfortunate names in all of astrology (plus a hilariously suggestive symbol), the Cancer team represents the top major league players born under the same sun sign as your humble blogger. According to the literature on the sign, Cancerians could be either helpful or annoying to have in the clubhouse - they can have a kind, sympathetic, and nurturing character, but they also tend towards being overly-emotional, moody, and hypersensitive. I guess that's what comes from the combined aspects of changeability from a water sign that's ruled by the moon. Let's see what kind of depth chart comes from such a sign.

This team has some more productive batters than I thought would be the case at the beginning of the season, but I'd like to begin by focusing on the real area of strength: the pitching staff - as of this writing, the team's top three scorers are all starting pitchers. Stephen Strasburg leads the NL in strikeouts (and strikeouts per 9 innings) as he approaches his controversial Shutdown Day. All-Star snub Ryan Vogelsong leads the same league in ERA, as the 34-year-old is doing a good job proving that his breakout 2011 season (following a four-year absence from the majors) was no fluke. And although CC Sabathia is trailing the Yankees staff ace Hiroki Kuroda by 2.0 full WAR, he's not a bad fantasy SP3 by any means.

Before rounding out the rotation, let's take a look at this dominant bullpen, which, thanks to injuries and ineffectiveness, now features five (5) relievers who have spent most of the season racking up saves for their clubs. Jim Johnson had been a revelation for the Orioles through mid-July (including a scoreless April), Chris Perez just secured his second straight season with 30+ saves last night, and Jason Motte is the only pitcher on this staff to sport a WHIP under 1. Meanwhile, in San Francisco, Brian Wilson's injury catapulted Santiago Casilla into the closer's role (although his job has since been in flux of late), and in Anaheim, the struggles of Jordan Walden (an All-Star last year and 7th in Rookie of the Year voting) prompted the Angels to trade for Ernesto Frieri.

Luckily the rest of the rotation is deep enough to have effective pitchers to replace Strasburg if/when he goes down, although no one can hope to emulate his performance. Recent trade chip Paul Maholm has ramped up his value since going undrafted to start the season and Taiwanese import Wei-Yin Chen been solid for the Orioles. Strasburg's replacement will likely come from a group including Phil Hughes, Tim Hudson, and Edinson Volquez, whose combined 3.99 ERA is a full 1.2 runs above the young phenom's. However Brandon McCarthy's (2.68 ERA in 13 injury-plagued starts) return from the disabled list should make the situation a little easier to swallow.

With the lack of a true first-round pick fantasy stud to anchor the offense, any conversation about this lineup has to start with star power, and for that we turn to Derek Jeter. The 38 year-old Yankee captain might not turn in solid defense at shortstop anymore (if he ever did to begin with), but he does lead the AL in both at bats and hits (80% of them singles). Among other Cancer players known for their positive clubhouse presence are Jeter's double play partner Brandon "Dat Dude" Phillips and Torii Hunter, who doesn't have a starting spot in this crowded outfield.

The leading outfield scorer is Cleveland's Shin-Soo Choo, who, if he hadn't earned an exemption by helping his native South Korean team win a gold medal at the 2010 Asian Games, would right now be serving a mandatory military service. Flanking him in the second corner outfield spot is Nelson Cruz, who prior to the season was ranked just one spot behind teammate and first-half fantasy machine Josh Hamilton. Manning center field (because any contender has to prove it's good up the middle) is Angel Pagan, whose days of batting 5th for the Giants are likely over due to their acquisition of a legitimate power hitter in Hunter Pence (his .140 average for the team notwithstanding). But the top offensive scorer overall is third baseman Aramis Ramirez, whose league-leading 37 doubles don't quite make up for the lost production from Prince Fielder, but at least he comes quite a bit cheaper.

Cancer is lucky enough to have two of fantasy's best behind the plate: Yadier Molina (who has recently started making noise with his bat in addition to his well-regarded glovework) and Miguel Montero (whose role as DH is probably on par with starting a tight end as your flex in fantasy football, a sport I'm trying to learn this year). First base was a mess for this team early on following Adam Lind's demotion to the minor leagues. For a while Juan Rivera's backup work for the Dodgers was their best bet, but when Allen Craig came off the DL and started playing at the Pujols-vacated first base for the Cardinals, Cancer had found its man.

In my Astrology Baseball fantasy league that I set up, Cancer is in a 4-way tie for 5th place overall in the standings with an even .500 record. With 3+ weeks to go, they're not assured of a playoff spot, but they've actually scored the most fantasy points out of any team: their 18,346 points are currently 246 points ahead of the Aries Rams. Granted I haven't been changing the rosters regularly - it's enough work maintaining my fantasy team in the league where I actually drafted and am, you know, competing with real people - but neither have I shown Cancer any favoritism, so their performance has to do at least somewhat with the merit of the players. I don't know about you, but I'm pulling for the Crabs to go all the way this year.

Trade Deadline Recap

We can now clearly see both headlights of the 2012 non-waiver trade deadline in our rear-view mirrors and it's now time to get on with the final two months of the regular season. But before we put this eventful and exciting milestone to bed, I'd like to present a recap of the proceedings in the form of (what else) a fantasy baseball list. What follows is a 25-man roster comprised of the best players to be moved via trade before Tuesday's deadline. The list includes each player's primary position, their old and new teams, and their fantasy points at the time they were traded.

Of the five teams that show up the most often on this roster (four times apiece), only one of them - the Los Angeles Dodgers - could be considered buyers. The Boys in Blue are the only team to notch three acquisitions on this roster: 1) a top of the order hitter (Shane Victorino) who is now assured to bat near the top of the order since he's no longer blocked by Jimmy Rollins - the Flyin' Hawaiian has spent only 8 games in the leadoff spot this year. 2) a power bat (Hanley Ramirez) who, despite a general disappointing pall that has fallen on everything Miami this year, has quietly put together a fine season. And 3) a bullpen piece (Brandon League) to replace the one they gave up to get the player #1 on this list (Josh Lindblom). They also recently made the first POST-deadline acquisition (pitcher Joe Blanton, also from the Phillies) but that's a different. Those two hitters they acquired are the 2nd and 3rd highest-scoring batters to change hands pre-deadline this year, trailing only Hunter Pence (yet ANOTHER Philly) who went to division-rival Giants. The Giants also got versatile infielder Marco Scutaro, with the only Major League talent they parted with being backup outfielder Nate Schierholtz (who went to... you guessed it, the Phillies).

The highest-scoring pitcher to be moved went to a team whose only major deal was to acquire the highest-scoring pitcher available at the deadline - however Zack Greinke has failed to win either of his two starts with the Angels - in fact, the temperamental starter hasn't won since June. I'm considering trying to sell him high from my fantasy team before the general negativity of Anaheim causes him to combust. Greinke wasn't the only chip Milwaukee moved; they also sent backup catcher George Kottaras to the A's, the only move made by Billy Beane's club in the first post-Moneyball (2011 film) trade deadline, failing to capitalize on the momentum of a franchise-best July to improve the team in any meaningful way. Meanwhile, in a similar situation to the Giants and the Dodgers in the NL West, the Rangers have matched Anaheim SP for SP, with the acquisition of former NL ERA leader Ryan Dempster (although the fact that his FIP is nearly a run higher than his ERA doesn't bode well for his smoke and mirrors act continuing in Arlington).

Dempster wasn't the only player the Cubs shipped to the Rangers - the two clubs connected earlier on deadline day in a trade for Geovany Soto, whose main purpose it seems will be to leech at bats from Mike Napoli (just another way the AL West is conspiring to undermine my fantasy team). Nor was Dempster the only starter dealt by the Cubs - two days before the deadline, they shipped Paul Maholm to Atlanta (along with fourth outfielder Reed Johnson) after the Braves were spurned by Dempster, who invoked his no-trade protection rights after a deal had been worked out between the two clubs.

Along with the Phillies and Cubs, Miami and Houston were the biggest sellers this year. In addition to the Hanley Ramirez deal, Miami also sent two key players to the Tigers: first time free agent to be Anibal Sanchez and returning 2B Omar Infante, who has cooled off in the last month and a half after swinging a hot stick to start the season. I still bat him second in my projected order because even though his .305 OBP is nothing special, it's better than Ichiro's .287, which shouldn't even earn him the "second leadoff" 6th spot, but he does have a bit of a track record on his side.

In their last year in the NL, the Astros have taken the predictable step of purging themselves of 30-something veterans making $10 million-plus per year: Wandy Rodriguez went to shore up the upstart Pirates rotation and Brett Myers hasn't given up a run yet for the White Sox... they even managed to pull off the rare sell-to-the-sellers trick, sending Carlos Lee to the Marlins before the Fish realized they were fighting a losing battle in 2012. They did receive highly touted 3B prospect Matt Dominguez in the deal, prompting them to trade Chris Johnson to the Diamondbacks to clear up a path for him. They also sent honorable mention J.A. Happ to the Blue Jays in a blockbuster deal, getting some return from the now twice-traded lefty before he hits the open market for the first time. The only other player worth honorably mentioning has to be Francisco Liriano, who is starting tomorrow for the White Sox.

One of the most surprising deals of the deadline had to be the Reds acquiring rejuvenated closer Jonathan Broxton from the Royals, since Cincinnati already features the hardest-throwing closer in the game right now. I wonder if this move will pave the way for Aroldis Chapman to head into the rotation, or if J-Brox will simply languish as a setup man for the rest of 2012. I wonder what would have been better for his 2013 free agent value: setting up for a playoff contender or closing for a team who's dead in the water.