Tuesday, January 26, 2010

The A's in 2010

Ah, I'm finally free of the mammoth project I set aside for myself, and now I can indulge in one of my favorite activities of the baseball off-season: Rank Speculation!

But before this, a word on my Divisional All-Stars project. Sure it went on too long, and I may have run my mouth a little too much about each player on each team. But when taken together, as an overview, I believe my eight lineup cards provide a pretty complete overview of the best players and biggest difference-makers in the game right now. So for those who might like to gain some background knowledge of the major people in baseball, I'd definitely suggest familiarizing themselves with the guys on these lists.

That being said, I kind of like how the A's are looking this coming year.

Last year, every single bat that was brought in to bolster the offense floundered. Plus the extra-young rotation showed a lot of promise (4th lowest ERA in the league), but failed to deliver solidly enough to make up for the team not scoring any runs.

Well, next year's offense won't have any big surprises. 2009 saw the acquisition of big-timer Matt Holliday via trade (he was eventually traded for a prize outfield prospect*); 2010 will see the addition of speedy center fielder Coco Crisp. This move will push Ryan Sweeney over to right field, and Rajai Davis over to left - which gives the A's three guys in the outfield with the athletic ability to play center field. It will also push Travis Buck to the bench, maybe taking some pressure off the hopefully-still-soon-to-be-stellar corner outfielder.

*He was actually traded directly for a third-base prospect, who was in turn spun off for the outfield prospect.

All this could change if the A's acquire dedicated left fielder Johnny Damon (the rumors are swirling), or if Jack Cust (resigned after becoming a free agent) spends some time in right field to make room for newly acquired (from the Cubs) Jake Fox at DH. Fox doesn't really have a natural position - he can play a little third and a little first base, but neither very well) - but he can hit well enough to merit some attention here.

Why not just let Fox try his hand at first base? Because Billy Beane knows that defense is just as good as offense. And because he's still hoping that Daric Barton will pan out at the plate. And why not put Fox at third? Because Eric Chavez has a lifetime reservation at the hot corner for the A's...

No, just kidding, thankfully. The truth is, not even counting Chavez, the A's have two solid options that come before Fox on the depth chart at third base: Kevin Kouzmanoff (acquired from the Padres for Scott Hairston and a prospect), whose slick fielding makes up for his mediocre bat, and Dallas McPherson, an ex-prospect for the Angels who slugged 42 home runs for the Marlins' AAA Minor League affiliate in 2008. But McPherson missed all of '07 and all of '09, so they may be in the same position with him as they are with Chavez.

The pitching staff's hopes rest on two factors. 1) The maturation of their youngsters (21-year-olds Brett Anderson and Trevor Cahill, Vin Mazzaro (22), Gio Gonzalez (23), and Josh Outman (24 but coming off an injury) come to mind).

2) The durability of a couple of oft-injureds. Neither Justin Duchscherer (resigned after not being offered arbitration) nor Ben Sheets (just signed yesterday) threw a single pitch in the majors in 2009. But both are signed to incentive-laden, 1-year deals. These kinds of contracts are great for pitchers with something to prove: if you perform well, they'll not only get their payday, but they'll have some stats to show prospective buyers the following off-season. But if they don't perform, they get paid either slightly more than or right around what they deserve.

Most of the bullpen's key players will return: Rookie of the Year closer Andrew Bailey, setup men Brad Ziegler and Michael Wuertz, and lefty specialist Craig Breslow will all sport the green & gold in 2010. Also, former-potential-closer Joey Devine should bounce back from his surgery that cause him to miss all of '09. And the departures of Santiago Casilla, Edgar Gonzalez, and Russ Springer definitely count as additions-through-subtraction.

Are they gonna beat the Angels? Probably not. Will they finish 2010 in the basement of their division again? I wouldn't count on it. But they'll have a tough row to hoe in a division with a lot of improvement.

Sunday, January 24, 2010

AL Wild Card Divisional All-Stars

Here it is, finally: the very last one of these interminable Divisional All-Star squads. It's the American League Wild Card. I've put it off long enough, so no more, here they are:

POS NAME swp swp/g
TEAM
2B Brian Roberts 2,275 14.3
BAL
LF Carl Crawford 2,337 15.0
TB
3B Alex Rodriguez 2,032 16.4
NYY
1B Kevin Youkilis 2,168 15.9
BOS
C Victor Martinez 2,127 13.7
CLE/BOS
DH Ben Zobrist 2,215 14.6
TB 2B
RF Nick Swisher 1,848 12.3
NYY
SS Jason Bartlett 1,998 14.6
TB
CF Denard Span 1,923 13.3
MIN







SP John Danks 1,527 47.7
CHW

Mark Buerhle 1,485 45.0
CHW

Gavin Floyd 1,484 49.5
CHW

James Shields 1,476 44.7
TB

Matt Garza 1,447 45.2
TB







CL Jonathan Papelbon 1,853 28.1
BOS
RP Brad Ziegler 667 9.7
OAK

Mark Lowe 662 8.8
SEA

Lance Cormier 588 11.1
TB

Sean White 579 11.1
SEA

Phil Coke 557 7.7
NYY







P Justin Masterson 637 15.2
BOS/CLE

Aaron Hill on the Blue Jays had a monster season, which pushed the four other AL East second basemen down into the wild card hunt. The fact that this team includes not one, but two of those four runners up (Brian Roberts at leadoff and Ben Zobrist the DH) is a testament to the unusual strength of second sackers in the league this year. Roberts was a doubles machine, as usual, using his tremendous speed more to leg out extra-base hits rather than to steal bases (his SB totals has dropped by 10 in each of the last three years: 50 to 40 to 30 in '09).

Carl Crawford batted second for most of the year with the Rays, despite spending most of his career as a leadoff hitter, so he fits in nicely here behind Roberts. Back for a full season after missing significant time in '08, he ran for a career-high 60 stolen bases and was on base a career-high 36.4% of the time. Add to that his terrific defense in an underrated position, Crawford absolutely deserved this spot over runner-up Johnny Damon.

After the fabulous season he had, the only reason Alex Rodriguez missed out on a spot on the AL East team is because he missed the first month of the season recovering from hip surgery. Just barely cracking 30 HR and 100 RBI for the 12th straight season, A-Rod added an elusive feather into his cap by excelling in the 2009 playoffs, something he had been unable to do for most of his career. Sure he was embroiled in some steroid controversy, but who wasn't this year? And for all that he's accomplished in his career, he's still relatively young. Who knows if his recent reform will shed some kinder light on him if he eventually surpasses Barry Bonds as the all-time home run leader.

Kevin Youkilis has yet to stay healthy for more than 150 games in a season, but his mid- to upper-range power and his talent for getting on base has earned him a spot in the upper echelon of first basemen. His versatility is also a plus - if the Mike Lowell trade had gone through for Boston, Youk would have likely shifted across the diamond to third base.

Speaking of versatile Red Sox players, Victor Martinez, who will catch all year for Boston but who also has the ability to play first base, bats fifth for this team. He won't hit 30 home runs, but he will hit 20 to 25, drive in 100 runs and walk about as much as he strikes out. He's not an above average defender behind the plate, but he's a veteran and a team leader who fit in very well at Fenway Park after being acquired by the Indians part way through the season. The Red Sox should definitely benefit from a full year of this guy.

Ben Zobrist made a splash in his first year with regular playing time, spending significant time at both second base and right field. He was exceptional at every aspect of his game, putting up impressive power numbers (27 HR), getting on base (.405 OBP), showing some speed on the basepaths (17 SB), and playing above average defense all over the field (5.8 runs above average at second, 13.0 runs in the outfield). At age 28, Zorilla should have a long and eventful career ahead of him.

Nick Swisher is, quite frankly, somewhat of a disappointing choice for the starting right fielder for this club. Sure he walks a ton and has some pretty good power, but he was a wash in the field and he doesn't make as much contact as he should, hitting for just .249 on the season. Just behind him in points was Texas's Nelson Cruz, who flashed power and speed, but didn't come close to Swish in terms of plate discipline. I almost bent the rules and slotted Minnesota's Jason Kubel as the right fielder, but seeing as he played only 30 games in right field (plus another 29 in left) versus 80 games as the DH, it just didn't seem right.

The most surprising player on this team has to be Tampa Bay's Jason Bartlett, who somehow found he could use his bat extremely effectively at age 29. 14 home runs (his previous career-high was 5), 66 RBI (43), and an .879 OPS (.760, but in nearly 200 fewer plate appearances). If he can keep away from injuries AND keep up this kind of All-Star caliber production, he could find himself getting a lot of positive attention. And rounding out the order is Minnesota's sophomore leadoff man Denard Span, who played all the outfield positions in '09. He's an old school slappy hitter who doesn't have much power, but shows great discipline and plays a great center field.

This pitching staff is a little unbalanced, with all five pitchers coming from only two teams. The first three guys are from the White Sox: John Danks and soft-tossing lefty Mark Buerhle each won 13 games with low ERA's (3.77 and 3.84 respectively), but the latter also threw a perfect game. Their teammate, Gavin Floyd, led his team in strikeouts (163), but had just a .500 winning percentage and an average ERA (4.06). The next two guys are from the Devil Rays: James Shields had the highest K/BB ratio of the staff (3.21), but couldn't get his ERA under 4.00 (4.14). Matt Garza struck out the most batters (189), but only picked up 8 wins and 12 losses. Nothing too exciting from this group this year, which was an unimpressive year for pitchers in general, which almost makes one question if all this steroid testing hullabaloo is really doing anything to temper the recent offensive explosion.

Jonathan Papelbon gets this spot, despite his meltdown in the ALDS against the Angels. He had an ERA under 2 (1.85) for the third times in the last four years and saved 38 games, but struggled with his command, walking more batters than ever before. Hot on his trail is Seattle's closer David Aardsma who also saved 38 - including earning the first save of his career - in his first year as a ninth inning specialist.

Oakland's Brad Ziegler leads the middle relievers with his funky submarine delivery and low strikeout rates. A pair of Seattle right-handers, the durable Mark Lowe and Sean White, make up another two spots, continuing the trend of relievers with sub-8.0 strikeout/9 innings rates. Rays' long man Lance Cormier also didn't miss many bats, but he racked up a lot of innings and stayed away from the long ball. Lone lefty Phil Coke didn't post an extremely low ERA, but you need someone to take advantage of that platoon split.

This team's swingman, Justin Masterson, spent time with two different AL teams this year: Boston, for which he mostly pitched from the bullpen, and Cleveland, for which he mostly started. Maybe having a full season as a starter next year will allow Masterson to focus and hone some of his skills. Or perhaps he'll struggle again and find himself without a well-defined role once again.

Well that's all I've got. Hope you've enjoyed my lengthy and indulgent way to provide an overview of some of the best players in the game. But now it's time to move on to some more thoughts about different things.

Monday, January 4, 2010

AL West Divisional All-Stars

Yes, I'm still continuing this project, even after days and days of inactivity. Darn those spotty internet connections!

Anyway, here are the AL West Divisional All-Stars:

POS NAME swp swp/g
TEAM
RF Ichiro Suzuki 1,980 13.6
SEA
3B Chone Figgins 2,108 13.3
LAA
2B Ian Kinsler 2,272 15.8
TEX
LF Matt Holliday 2,334 15.0
OAK/stl
DH Bobby Abreu 2,222 14.6
LAA RF
1B Kendry Morales 2,179 14.3
LAA
CF Torii Hunter 1,849 15.5
LAA
C Kurt Suzuki 1,691 11.5
OAK
SS Orlando Cabrera 1,710 10.7
OAK/min







SP Felix Hernandez 2,671 78.6
SEA

Jered Weaver 1,837 55.7
LAA

Scott Feldman 1,454 42.8
TEX

Kevin Millwood 1,394 45.0
TEX

John Lackey 1,357 50.3
LAA







CL Andrew Bailey 1,903 28.0
OAK
RP Michael Wuertz 1,166 15.8
OAK

Darren Oliver 765 12.1
LAA

Jason Bulger 739 11.5
LAA

Darren O'Day 708 10.4
nym/TEX

Craig Breslow 685 8.9
min/OAK







P Matt Palmer 977 24.4
LAA


Notice how the first three guys in the lineup batted leadoff for their respective clubs. Ichiro led the league in hits, in addition to earning a spot in his ninth straight All-Star game, and winning his ninth straight gold glove. He stole only 26 bases - down 13 whole bases from his per-year average - but at age 35, a little slowdown is understandable. Chone Figgins suddenly learned how to walk, leading the AL with 101, further increasing his capability at the top of the order. Kinsler's not the prototypical leadoff hitter, as he sports an impressive power stroke as well as good speed on the basepaths. But 30-30 season aside, Kinsler's pedestrian .327 on-base percentage (60 points lower than Ichiro; 70 below Figgins) doesn't make him a great fit for the top spot. In the third slot, his power stroke should lead to higher RBI totals, and he should see some time there with Texas next year.

Matt Holliday essentially had two 2009 seasons: the quiet one stuck in the basement with the A's and the loud one in the playoff hunt with the Cardinals. There could be several explanations for the discrepancy: the relative weakness of the National League compared to the American, the notorious pitcher-friendly dimensions of the A's home ballpark, or the motivation of having something to play for with a post-season bound team. If you're a Cardinals fan, I hope for your sake that the allure of playing in St. Louis will keep Holliday motivated to produce for seven more years, the length of his new contract.

Bobby Abreu, one of last off-season's absolute steals at $5-mil, played right field for the Angels (he was actually supposed to play left for the first time in his career, but Vlad Guerrero's gimpy knees opened up Abreu's usual right field slot), but he's our DH since Ichiro plays a much more competent right field. Everyone made a big deal about how his notoriously free-swinging Angels walked so much more than ever before, but if you crunch the numbers, you'll find that there was not really a team-wide increase. Abreu's and Figgins's legendary patience in '09 brought up the team average, while the walk rates of most of their teammates actually declined last year.

Abreu opens up a trio of Angels, which includes switch-hitting Cuban first baseman Kendry Morales having a breakout year, and center fielder Torii Hunter apparently showing no signs of age... except of course for playing in the fewest number of games in five years. But his defense, according to some advanced metrics, seems to have been better than it was in nearly 10 years, showing that he's finally living up to his reputation again.

Two swingin' A's round out the batting order: catcher of the future and (sadly) Oakland's only real remaining offensive threat Kurt Suzuki, and trade fodder Orlando Cabrera. In just his second full season, Suzuki showed real improvement in his power game, although his plate discipline suffered a little bit from the previous year. He's still young enough (25) that there's hope that all elements of his game will come together and make him quite formidable with the bat. Cabrera left for greener pastures after 101 games with the A's, and got to play in the post-season with the Twins, but he's still a Type-A free agent without an offer.

The rotation includes Felix Hernandez and not much else. He tied for the league lead with 19 wins and struck out over 200 batters for the first time, and at age 23, he has nowhere to go but up (or, I suppose, down, but it doesn't seem likely for someone of his talent and poise). Jered Weaver had a solid season - maybe his best season - and was a pretty decent #1 starter for a team with a stellar offense and bullpen. John Lackey luckily squeaked by onto this team with a season plagued by injury (ahead of A's rookie Brett Anderson), which is fortunate since he should have put up some more raw numbers if healthy.

A couple of Texas Rangers pitchers surprised by making this list, as they're usually known as a purely offensive team. Kevin Millwood was their de facto ace, with the most experience (13 seasons, four playoff appearances) and lowest ERA (he finally got it below 5 with the Rangers). But as he was recently traded to the Orioles, Scott Feldman looks to pick up his mantle. In his second season as a full time starter, Feldman won 17 games with a respectable ERA. Although his peripherals aren't stunning - a strikeout-to-walk ratio under 2 (113 to 65) - the Rangers are very optimistic about his continued success.

A's Rookie of the Year Andrew Bailey will close out games for this squad, holding his own statistically over the likes of Brian Fuentes and David Aardsma. Extremely underrated short reliever Michael Wuertz will set up. It's very rare to see a non-closer relief pitcher crack the 1,000 swp mark, and to see Wuertz in that category, especially while only picking up 4 saves the whole year, bespeaks some very impressive underlying numbers (including 102 strikeouts in just under 80 innings). The Angels' go-to guy Jason Bulger, and the Rangers' early season acquisition Darren O'Day make up the other two righties in the bullpen.

Southpaw long man Darren Oliver and A's acquisition Craig Breslow give this team some lefty depth. Oliver continues to thrive 4+ years since making the transition from starting to relieving at age 35. After struggling with the Twins, Breslow posted an ERA under 3 after being acquired by the western division club. Angels swingman Matt Palmer rounds out the staff; he'll likely get a starting spot with the Halos next year.

The last and final divisional All-Star squad is next. Maybe you'll see it soon, maybe I'll go on another month long break. Who can tell?

Then maybe I'll finally be able to move on to some new projects...