Tuesday, January 26, 2010

The A's in 2010

Ah, I'm finally free of the mammoth project I set aside for myself, and now I can indulge in one of my favorite activities of the baseball off-season: Rank Speculation!

But before this, a word on my Divisional All-Stars project. Sure it went on too long, and I may have run my mouth a little too much about each player on each team. But when taken together, as an overview, I believe my eight lineup cards provide a pretty complete overview of the best players and biggest difference-makers in the game right now. So for those who might like to gain some background knowledge of the major people in baseball, I'd definitely suggest familiarizing themselves with the guys on these lists.

That being said, I kind of like how the A's are looking this coming year.

Last year, every single bat that was brought in to bolster the offense floundered. Plus the extra-young rotation showed a lot of promise (4th lowest ERA in the league), but failed to deliver solidly enough to make up for the team not scoring any runs.

Well, next year's offense won't have any big surprises. 2009 saw the acquisition of big-timer Matt Holliday via trade (he was eventually traded for a prize outfield prospect*); 2010 will see the addition of speedy center fielder Coco Crisp. This move will push Ryan Sweeney over to right field, and Rajai Davis over to left - which gives the A's three guys in the outfield with the athletic ability to play center field. It will also push Travis Buck to the bench, maybe taking some pressure off the hopefully-still-soon-to-be-stellar corner outfielder.

*He was actually traded directly for a third-base prospect, who was in turn spun off for the outfield prospect.

All this could change if the A's acquire dedicated left fielder Johnny Damon (the rumors are swirling), or if Jack Cust (resigned after becoming a free agent) spends some time in right field to make room for newly acquired (from the Cubs) Jake Fox at DH. Fox doesn't really have a natural position - he can play a little third and a little first base, but neither very well) - but he can hit well enough to merit some attention here.

Why not just let Fox try his hand at first base? Because Billy Beane knows that defense is just as good as offense. And because he's still hoping that Daric Barton will pan out at the plate. And why not put Fox at third? Because Eric Chavez has a lifetime reservation at the hot corner for the A's...

No, just kidding, thankfully. The truth is, not even counting Chavez, the A's have two solid options that come before Fox on the depth chart at third base: Kevin Kouzmanoff (acquired from the Padres for Scott Hairston and a prospect), whose slick fielding makes up for his mediocre bat, and Dallas McPherson, an ex-prospect for the Angels who slugged 42 home runs for the Marlins' AAA Minor League affiliate in 2008. But McPherson missed all of '07 and all of '09, so they may be in the same position with him as they are with Chavez.

The pitching staff's hopes rest on two factors. 1) The maturation of their youngsters (21-year-olds Brett Anderson and Trevor Cahill, Vin Mazzaro (22), Gio Gonzalez (23), and Josh Outman (24 but coming off an injury) come to mind).

2) The durability of a couple of oft-injureds. Neither Justin Duchscherer (resigned after not being offered arbitration) nor Ben Sheets (just signed yesterday) threw a single pitch in the majors in 2009. But both are signed to incentive-laden, 1-year deals. These kinds of contracts are great for pitchers with something to prove: if you perform well, they'll not only get their payday, but they'll have some stats to show prospective buyers the following off-season. But if they don't perform, they get paid either slightly more than or right around what they deserve.

Most of the bullpen's key players will return: Rookie of the Year closer Andrew Bailey, setup men Brad Ziegler and Michael Wuertz, and lefty specialist Craig Breslow will all sport the green & gold in 2010. Also, former-potential-closer Joey Devine should bounce back from his surgery that cause him to miss all of '09. And the departures of Santiago Casilla, Edgar Gonzalez, and Russ Springer definitely count as additions-through-subtraction.

Are they gonna beat the Angels? Probably not. Will they finish 2010 in the basement of their division again? I wouldn't count on it. But they'll have a tough row to hoe in a division with a lot of improvement.

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