Tuesday, February 25, 2020

Non-Roster Invitees 2020 - NL East

Jumping across leagues from the last batch of Non-Roster Invitees I profiled, here are some highlights of the non-roster players invited to Spring Training by teams in the National League East division. As a recap, for each team, I'll highlight how many total NRI's will be in big league camp, which of them appeared in the majors in 2019, which were ranked in MLB.com's top 800 fantasy player rankings, and which appeared on MLB.com's Top 100 Prospect list. (All player statuses are current as of February 18, 2020, the first day when full squads were present for workouts for all 30 teams.)


Atlanta Braves
Total NRI: 26
MLB 19: 6
Ranked: 2
Top 100: 3

The back-to-back NL East champion Braves don't have a ton of holes to fill on their roster, but a couple of those holes have the chance to be occupied by non-roster players in big league camp. Starting with the top player ranked by MLB, we have Ian Anderson, a pitching prospect who has yet to make his major league debut. Based on his ranking (#448), he actually projects as Atlanta's fifth starter: their locks at one-thru-four rank between 114 and 233, although the usage of Sean Newcomb (#404), a reliever in 2019, could change that calculus. Another rotation candidate at the polar opposite of his career trajectory to Anderson is 15-year veteran Felix Hernandez (#587), who is trying to recapture his Cy Young award-winning form after finishing out a big contract with Seattle.

Aside from King Felix, some notable players who saw major league time in 2019 are returning Braves Charlie Culberson and Rafael Ortega, veteran utility journeyman Yangervis Solarte, and rave-review-getter Peter O'Brien. Turning our gaze to members of MLB's top 100 prospects, outfielder Drew Waters leads the pack at #26, which is the same amount of career games he has at the Triple-A level (all coming in 2019). The above-mentioned Anderson is next in line at #37 - he also split his 2019 season between Double-A and Triple-A, with about the same ratio as Waters. The ninth overall pick in last year's draft, catcher Shea Langeliers, falls in at #70, even though his professional career consists of 54 games at the Single-A level.

UPDATE: One particular characteristic of minor league deals with invitations to spring training is that they tend to fly under the radar as far as MLB.com's official transaction log is concerned. For example, Atlanta's transaction log currently shows two such signings of 2019 big leaguers: returning Brave Josh Tomlin (on February 12th) and first baseman Yonder Alonso (on February 14th). However, I downloaded a version of that same transaction log on February 18th (my self-professed cutoff date), and those two transactions are nowhere to be found therein. It's an idiosyncrasy that I doubt matters to anyone but the most fastidious roster-obsessed folks like myself, but it occupies a fair amount of my attention every winter/spring.


Miami Marlins
Total NRI: 25
MLB 19: 6
Ranked: 1
Top 100: 1

This is not a stat I'm keeping track of throughout all teams, but a whopping 11 of Miami's 25 non-roster invitees were signed to minor league deals from outside the organization (rather than culled from existing minor league depth), showing how seriously the Marlins are about camp battles for roster spots. The only one ranked in MLB's top 800 fantasy players is former MVP candidate Matt Kemp, although his ranking of #754 shows that his chances of being a meaningful contributor are rather low. Other former MLB players include infielder Sean Rodriguez, catcher Ryan Lavarnway, former closer Brad Boxberger, and switch pitcher Pat Venditte. Their one top-100 prospect was another 2019 first round pick (fourth overall), outfielder JJ Bleday (ranked #28).


New York Mets
Total NRI: 23
MLB 19: 11
Ranked: 1
Top 100: 0

Of the teams we've looked at so far, the Mets trail only the Yankees and the Rays in total number of 2020 NRI's, but just under half of them saw action in the big leagues last year. The only one ranked by MLB is first baseman and hopeful outfielder Matt Adams (#613), fresh off a World Series winning 2019 campaign with the Nationals. His chances of making the roster will depend on both his aptitude in the grass and the injury status of one Yoenis Cespedes (ranked #493, but still seemingly not close to game action). Former White Sox outfielder Ryan Cordell, iron gloved infielder Eduardo Nunez (late of the Red Sox), and returning backup catcher candidate Rene Rivera make up the rest of the most notable 2019 major leaguers. While New York NL doesn't have a single NRI ranked within MLB's top 100 prospects, it's interesting to note that former NFL quarterback Tim Tebow is still trying to make the transition from the gridiron to the diamond.



Philadelphia Phillies
Total NRI: 28
MLB 19: 10
Ranked: 4
Top 100: 2

The Phillies NRI's with the top 2020 fantasy rankings from MLB.com are also the two players included in MLB.com's top 100 list. Based solely on the rankings, #34 overall prospect Spencer Howard (#317) projects as the third best starter on Philadelphia's staff (50 to 75 spots in front of rotation candidates Jake Arrieta, Vince Velasquez, and Zach Eflin), despite the fact that Howard has not pitched above Double-A. Likewise, #30 overall prospect Alec Bohm (#414) is ranked as the top third base option in the organization - assuming Scott Kingery (#206) beats out Adam Haseley (#556) for the center field job. Of course, that's not taking into account veterans Neil Walker (#733), Josh Harrison (#774), Logan Forsythe, Phil Gosselin, and Ronald Torreyes (all unranked), who could factor into the infield picture. Shifting to the bullpen, returning Phillie Blake Parker, starter-turned-lefty specialist Francisco Liriano, journeyman Anthony Swarzak, and bounceback candidates Bud Norris and Drew Storen could all potentially see some high-leverage innings.


Washington Nationals
Total NRI: 22
MLB 19: 7
Ranked: 1
Top 100: 1

The reigning world champions were the last team to publicly announce their non-roster invitees, publishing the list on February 12th, but there are a few notable names among them. The only one with a rank from MLB.com is backup catcher candidate Welington Castillo (#710), who has already technically been a member of three teams since the 2019 season ended, as the White Sox traded his contract to the Rangers, who then declined his option the next day. However, the Nats also brought in several options to bolster both their outfield mix (Mac Williamson, JB Shuck) and their bullpen (Javy Guerra, David Hernandez, Fernando Abad). Their lone appearance on the top 100 prospects list just barely made it as Luis (V.) Garcia (not to be confused with Luis (A.) Garcia, the established right handed reliever who is in camp with the Rangers) clocked in at #97 according to MLB.com.

Saturday, February 22, 2020

Non-Roster Invitees 2020 - AL East

It's finally here! Spring Training games are being broadcast on MLB Network! The long arduous baseball offseason is coming to an end! Which means that it's one of the busiest times of year for those of us who are unhealthily obsessed with baseball rosters: Non-Roster Invitation Season! At around this time every year, each MLB franchise supplements the players on its roster with a group of non-roster invitees (NRI's), whose goals are either to a) compete for a roster spot, or b) gain valuable experience by being around MLB players and staff for a month before returning to the minor leagues.

Since today's first game on the MLB Network docket features the Yankees and the Blue Jays, I'm starting this analysis with the AL East teams. For each team, I'll highlight how many total NRI's will be in big league camp, which of them appeared in the majors in 2019, which were ranked in MLB.com's top 800 fantasy player rankings, and which appeared on MLB.com's Top 100 Prospect list. (All player statuses are current as of February 18, 2020, the first day when full squads were present for workouts for all 30 teams.)


Baltimore Orioles
Total NRI: 27
MLB 19: 12
Ranked: 1
Top 100: 1

As a team in the middle of a lengthy rebuild, the Orioles are in a position to let plenty of non-roster players compete for significant time in the big leagues this year. However, the only player ranked in MLB.com's top 800 is lefty swing-pitcher Wade LeBlanc (#709), who put up 521 points and 20.0 points per game for the Mariners last year. Seattle declined a team option they held over the pitcher known as "Frenchy," which led to a minor league deal with Baltimore, where he'll compete with rostered players David Hess, Kohl Stewart, and possibly prospects like Dean Kremer (#691), Keegan Akin (#720), and Brandon Bailey (#721) for a spot in the O's rotation. Other players who saw MLB action in 2019 include Tommy Milone (who also saw action in Seattle last year), Stevie Wilkerson (Baltimore's regular center fielder last year, who was outrighted off the roster after the season), and Bryan Holaday (signed out of Miami to compete for the backup catching job). As for the one member of MLB's top 100 prospects, that honor goes to the first overall pick in last year's draft, catcher of the future Adley Rutschman (#4).


Boston Red Sox
Total NRI: 26
MLB 19: 6
Ranked: 0
Top 100: 1

The results of the league's investigation into Boston's alleged sign stealing in 2018 is still pending, the team lost incumbent manager Alex Cora because of his role in Houston's sign stealing scandal from the year prior, their new general manager traded away their best player in a blatant cost-saving move, and there are essentially no players of note in Red Sox camp. Cesar Puello (an outfielder who split his 2019 between Anaheim and Miami) and Marco Hernandez (a former Red Sox infielder who was non-tendered and re-signed) represent the only players who put up more than 40 fantasy points in the majors last year, and none of Boston's NRI's were ranked by MLB. Adding insult to injury, the one member of MLB's top 100 prospects (Jeter Downs, #44) was acquired in the above-mentioned Mookie Betts trade, and is named after Yankees Hall of Fame shortstop Derek Jeter.

UPDATE: I set the cutoff date of this particular analysis as Feb 18, 2020 (the date when full squads for all teams have reported to camp), but minor league deals with NRI's will continue to trickle in for the remainder of Spring Training. One such deal was the Red Sox signing Jonathan Lucroy (ranked #722 by MLB) to compete with Kevin Plawecki (#725) for the backup catcher position. Despite his offensive drop-off in recent years, I'd say Luc has a decent shot of winning the camp battle, not least because Boston's new interim manager Ron Roenicke managed the veteran backstop during his heyday in Milwaukee.


New York Yankees
Total NRI: 21
MLB 19: 9
Ranked: 1
Top 100: 1

According to broadcaster Michael Kay (who, in my opinion, did his best work in All-Star Baseball 2000 for the Nintendo 64), Yankees players missed more than 2,000 player-games due to injuries last year, so they clearly know the importance of organizational depth. That said, the only ranked player among New York's NRI's is Chris Iannetta (#760) who will provide some veteran competition to presumed backup catcher Kyle Higashioka (#734). (That's the same purpose served by fellow veteran backstops Erik Kratz and Josh Thole.) Otherwise, the  majority of MLB veterans in camp are pitchers: David Hale, Luis Avilan, Chad Bettis, Dan Otero, and Tyler Lyons. Their one top 100 prospect is right handed pitcher Clarke Schmidt (#88), who spent the majority of the 2019 season with the class A-advanced Tampa Tarpons.


Tampa Bay Rays
Total NRI: 21
MLB 19: 7
Ranked: 1
Top 100: 0

Speaking of Tampa, the Rays didn't invite a lot of heat to their MLB camp this year, focusing, as many teams do, on the catching position. One of Kevan Smith (ranked #740, late of the Angels) or Chris Herrmann (fresh off a deal with the A's) is a good bet to land the big league backup catching position behind Mike Zunino. Ryan LaMarre saw a handful of games in Minnesota's outfield last year, but Tampa Bay already has a deep group there. The only other real player of note is the 6'10" right-hander Aaron Slegers, who is the second-tallest player invited to a Spring Training camp in 2020 (behind only Giants hurler Sean Hjelle, by a single inch).


Toronto Blue Jays
Total NRI: 24
MLB 19: 9
Ranked: 1
Top 100: 1

The Blue Jays just closed out this first 2020 Spring Training broadcast over the Yankees, despite a rocky ninth inning by Jake Petricka, one of six pitchers who saw MLB action in 2019. However, the one player who was ranked by MLB heading into the season - who is also the same player to appear on the top 100 prospects list - hasn't yet gotten his first call to the show. Based on his ranking, pitching prospect Nate Pearson (ranked #276, and named as the game's #8 prospect) is widely expected to contribute heavily to Toronto's pitching staff: the only pitchers ranked above him on the Blue Jays roster are free agent acquisition Hyun-Jin Ryu (#119) and closer Ken Giles (#129). Does that mean Pearson is likely to beat out the likes of Tanner Roark (#388), Matt Shoemaker (#418), Chase Anderson (#426), or even today's starter Trent Thornton (#518) for an opening day rotation spot? Unlikely, given both service time considerations and the fact that he only has three games above the Double-A level. But keep your eyes on that transaction log as the summer rolls around.

Sunday, February 16, 2020

Aquarius - Astrology 2020 Valentine's Day Preview

If Valentine's Day falls during Aquarius season, does that mean Aquarius is the most romantic astrological sign? I know that it's the first sign, both alphabetically and also according to the calendar, going by the months in which each sign starts. I also know that it has historically been the worst sign by far at producing quality major league baseball players born under its constellation. At least in the past two decades for which I have data: it might surprise you to know that both Babe Ruth and Hank Aaron are Aquarians, so there was a time when the sign had some respectability. But then again, so were Vladimir Guerrero and Roberto Alomar, and the sign still faltered in the late 90's.

Either way, the 2020 Aquarius Water Carriers (or Water Bearers? Is that better?) look to continue the trend of Fantasy Astrology Baseball bottom feeders. This fact is illustrated in AQU's current 40-player roster, as determined by me, the commissioner of the only known Fantasy Astrology Baseball league on the Internet. As a Valentine's Day present to myself, I reactivated the league and started work on the rosters for 2020, the first results of which you'll see below.


First, the Aquarius pitchers, sorted by 2019 position (i.e. starter or reliever) and then MLB.com's fantasy player rankings. The first thing to note is that the top two scoring starters from 2019 (Jeff Samardzija and Marco Gonzales) don't even project to make the rotation based on the rankings. I'm honestly not sure what the pundits see in Adrian Houser to make them rank him ahead of those two, plus recent injury-returnee Johnny Cueto. While he's slated for a rotation spot this coming year, the "Position 2" column shows that he split last year between the rotation and the bullpen, and it's not like he performed better as a starter - 4.57 ERA in 18 starts (80 innings), vs. a 1.47 ERA in 17 relief appearances (30 innings). But for a sign that's been as hard up as Aquarius has been in the recent past, they surprisingly have plenty of starting pitching depth.

The relief pitching depth, on the other hand, isn't quite as impressive, but it doesn't need to be, since the starting lineups in my league are set up with five starters and just two relievers. Some signs don't even have two dedicated closers, let alone two star closers such as Roberto Osuna and Liam Hendriks, so AQU is very well set up in that respect. Of course it all falls apart if one of them were to get injured or suspended for some reason... but that's the case for many positions for many signs around the Fantasy Astrology league.


And now the Water Carrier batters, which is where things really start to slide downhill. A cursory glance will reveal just two position players in the top 100, and just one in the top half of the top 100: Whit Merrifield, who will likely spend most of his time in the outfield to make room for Rougned Odor at second base. Joining Whitley in the outfield are two center field capable players, Max Kepler and Bryan Reynolds, with former platoon player Mark Canha able to step in. As an A's fan, I hope the top brass gives Canha more regular playing time, even against southpaws, as opposed to throwing plate appearances to replacement level lefties like Robbie Grossman (ranked a toothless 766).

2020 is especially interesting for AQU, since it will be the first year with their "new" starting shortstop, Didi Gregorius - the resources I had previously been using to determine birth signs had incorrectly identified him as a Pisces. It's not like this sign has been lacking help up the middle, with Dansby Swanson and Brandon Crawford as mainstays, but it never hurts to have more talent on hand. Speaking of supplanted infield stalwarts, it seems likely that long time third baseman Todd Frazier might lose playing time to 2019 breakout performer Tommy La Stella, super utility type Jon Berti, or even up-and-coming prospect Ke'Bryan Hayes before the season is over.

* Baseball Tarot *

Many years ago, when I was going through a Tarot phase, I was gifted a Baseball Tarot deck, which replaces the arcane and occult imagery of the traditional Tarot with baseball concepts and metaphors. For example, the Major and Minor Arcana are renamed the Major and Minor Leagues, and the four suits comprising the latter are changed from Cups, Swords, Wands, and Coins to Mitts, Balls, Bats, and Bases. One of the most basic two-card layouts is called "Pitch and Swing" where the first card represents the situation you're facing and the second card represents your best course of action or attitude in response. Since fantasy baseball rankings and Tarot both share aspects of Divination, I've decided to do a reading as part my analysis of each sign's upcoming season.


For Aquarius, the Pitch was Assist (Twelve of Bases) while the Swing was Shake-Off (Three of Balls). My first impressions of these cards are that they're both defensive (a fielder makes an assist and the pitcher shakes off a sign from their catcher), indicating that now might not be the year that Aquarius will storm to the top of the Fantasy Astrology league. Referring to the book included with the deck, the entry under Assist starts with the heading "demonstrating reliability," which in this situation calls to mind the lyric in the song "Heart" from the musical Damn Yankees: "The team has been consistent." "Yeah, we always lose!" One aspect of this card is understanding expectations, which, for Aquarius, are understandably low. On the other hand, the entry for Shake-Off starts with "admitting unhappiness," knowing something is wrong, and realizing you must make a change. Something has decidedly been wrong with Aquarius's performance, based on their place in the Fantasy Astrology standings... but what exactly must change to turn them into contenders will have to come to light over the course of a long season.

Thursday, February 13, 2020

Astrology 2020 Top Ranked Players

As of today, pitchers and catchers from all but two MLB teams will have reported to Spring Training camps. The Dodgers and the Reds are the last to officially summon their battery-mates, which they do on Friday and Saturday, respectively. Given we're taking our first tentative steps into the 2020 baseball season, I thought this would be a good time to emerge from my offseason blog-cation, and look at the Astrology Baseball landscape, through the lens of MLB.com's fantasy player rankings.

Below you'll find a brief analysis of the top-ranked player in each sign - or more, in the special case of a sign having multiple players in the top 10 overall. Next to each player's name, you'll see his 2019 fantasy point totals and points per game average (the latter in parenthesis).


Sagittarius
1. Christian Yelich - 2,709 (20.8)
2. Ronald Acuna Jr. - 2,674 (17.1)

This special case applies to the top two players in the sport, according to MLB.com, as superstar outfielders Yelich and Acuna were both born under the Sagittrarius star sign. Yelich won the 2018 NL MVP award, and a late-season injury was likely the biggest factor that prevented him from taking home back-to-back trophies. Acuna also got some hardware in 2018, earning Rookie of the Year honors, and he followed up that performance with three stolen bases shy of a 40-40 season. With such a dynamic duo roaming the grass, could this be the year where the Archers win it all?


Leo
3. Mike Trout - 2,568 (19.1)

For years, Trout hasbeen the consensus best player in MLB, which is why this ranking is a bit perlexing to me. He doesn't seem to be showing any signs of slowing down, as the 28-year-old won the AL MVP last year (his third time in the last six seasons), although he has missed  time due to injuries in each of the past three seasons. Honorable mention for the Lions goes to starting pitcher Max Scherzer, who was ranked #11 overall, fresh off a World Series winning season.


Cancer
4. Cody Bellinger - 2,849 (18.2)

Bellinger won the NL MVP over Yelich last year, not only because of his legit offensive breakout, but because he was able to stay on the field for 26 more games than the defending champion. Belli settled into right field for the Dodgers, but his eligibility at first base and in center field will help a Crabs roster that is not particularly deep at either position. One position where the Decapods are particularly deep is shortstop, where Trea Turner leads the field at #13.


Aries
5. Nolan Arenado - 2,525 (16.1)
8. Alex Bregman - 2,739 (17.5)

The only other sign with two players in the top 10 is Aries, where Arenado and Bregman once again comprise the left half of the Rams infield. Despite his displeasure with his current organization, a trade sending Arenado away from the Rockies (and thus hitter-friendly Coors Field) seems unlikely, so his park factors should remain in place this season. If Carlos Correa ever has a full, healthy season aside Bregman in Houston, it would be bad news for Aries's ability to maximize its best players positionally: without the shortstop eligibility Bregman has from serving as a frequent backup, he would have to take up the DH slot.


Libra
6. Mookie Betts - 2,560 (17.0)

Bellinger's newest teammate in Los Angeles, Betts was involved the most dramatic blockbuster trade of the offseason, which not only helped the Red Sox duck under the luxury tax threshold, but also delivered a second MVP-caliber outfielder to the Dodgers (Betts won the AL MVP in 2018). The only thing that would make this saga complete is if Betts pulled a Paul Goldschmidt and signed a long term extension with Los Angeles after spurning multiple attempts from Boston. Libra has a fairly large gap between their top fantasy talents: the next Scales players on the list are Betts's former teammate Xander Bogaerts and Cardinals ace Jack Flaherty at #25 and #26, respectively.


Virgo
7. Gerrit Cole - 3,148 (95.3)

Before the Astros became mired in the infamous sign-stealing scandal, they had to watch arguably their best pitcher Cole depart for the Yankees, who forked over the largest ever contract for a pitcher in free agency to land the 2019 Cy Young award runner-up. Cole's durability (he made at least 32 starts in four of the last five seasons) and ability to miss bats (he led the AL with 326 strikeouts and 13.8 K/9) will be welcome for a New York team that saw a record number of injuries in 2019. Next after Cole on the Maidens list of top players is Atlanta's slugging first baseman Freddie Freeman at #14.


Scorpio
9. Francisco Lindor - 2,232 (15.6)

Like Betts, Lindor has shown no willingness to engage his current club in extension talks, so it's not unreasonable to predict that the Indians will ship him to another team sometime between now and the end of the 2021 season, his final year of team control. The switch hitter known as "Mr. Smile" will continue to lead the way for both the Tribe and the Scorpions with his electric style of play. In perhaps the worst positional logjam in the Astrology Baseball landscape, Scorpio's top two players are shortstops: Colorado's Trevor Story follows Lindor closely at #12.


Pisces
10. Justin Verlander - 3,235 (95.1)

Houston Astros teammates Verlander and Cole put up nearly identical numbers in the 2019 season, but it was  the veteran J-V who came away with second Cy Young award (the other was in 2011), while the Cole Train had to content himself with a huge bag full of money. Verlander turns 37 years old in a week, but he'll be counted on to lead a Houston staff and change the narrative from investigations into cheating to winning ballgames. His co-ace on the Fish for years has been Clayton Kershaw, although the Dodgers lefty has fallen on some inconsistent times as he approaches his early-mid 30's, dropping all the way to #42 in the rankings.


Gemini
15. Jacob deGrom - 2,495 (77.9)
16. Anthony Rendon - 2,673 (18.3)

The first of the signs to not have a player in the top 10, Gemini nevertheless has a very strong one-two punch in back-to-back NL Cy Young award winner deGrom and Mike Trout's newest supporting cast member Rendon. Both will play for their current real-world teams for the foreseeable future, as deGrom signed a five-year extension (plus an option) with the Mets prior to last year, and Rendon got a massive seven-year free agent deal to play in Anaheim.


Taurus
18. Jose Altuve - 1,915 (15.4)

I guess allegations of using an electronic buzzer to receive signs from his teammates didn't affect Altuve's fantasy standing, as the diminutive second baseman still finds himself ranked within the top 20. That was absolutely an unfair dig, as Altuve has been one of the best hitters in the sport long before the shadow of scandal darkened Houston's doorstep, even winning the MVP award in 2017, the year that the trash can scheme reached its zenith... wait a minute... maybe that dig wasn't so unfair after all! Looking down the Bulls roster, we have Aaron Judge next at #30, who won Rookie of the Year the same year that Altuve took home his MVP.


Capricorn
31. Fernando Tatis Jr. - 1,437 (17.1)

The son of the former major league third baseman with the same name never really got much Rookie of the Year consideration due to an injury-shortened debut season - Tatis Jr. only managed 84 games, despite the fact that the Padres bucked the service time manipulation trend and put him on the active roster to start the year. Unfortunately, the Mets used the same strategy with Sagittarius slugger Pete Alonso, and he went on to set the rookie record for home runs in a season. Next on the Goats hierarchy is Tatis's double play partner Ozzie Albies at #38.


Aquarius
49. Whit Merrifield - 2,154 (13.2)

Bringing up the rear, we have the always-hapless Aquarius, which has just one player in the top 50. Whit Merrifield is a tremendously talented player, with some versatility built in, but experienced fantasy drafters wouldn't pick him until the fourth or fifth round. Jose Abreu is next at #60, but neither is the type of player around whom you'd want to build a team. On an interesting historical note, this year I learned that not only are baseball legends Babe Ruth and Hank Aaron both Aquarians, but their birthdays are one day apart! (One calendar day, that is - Hammerin' Hank was born the day before the Babe's 39th birthday.) While the 2019 Water Carriers don't look too exciting, Aquarian baseball fans can look at this fact and dream of a time when their sign will once again rule the Astrological diamond.