Scoreboard Watching in the American League

As we enter the final two serieses of the 2012 baseball season, NOT ONE of the American League playoff spots have been finalized. So while the only drama in the NL consists of the Cardinals trying to hold off the Dodgers and (surprisingly surging) Brewers for the second wild card spot, 6 of the 7 junior circuit matchups are going significantly impact the playoff race. Here's what's going on in the various divisions.

AL EAST

The Yankees have had a share of first place since mid-June, but they've watched their lead over the upstart Orioles dwindle to just 1 game going into this crucial last week's worth of games. In that last week, each of those teams has a series against the unimpressive Red Sox. But the O's have to finish the season against the red-hot Rays, only 2 games behind the A's for the second wild card spot and in the midst of an 8-game winning streak.

AL CENTRAL

Before taking on the O's, the Rays finish up their 4-game series against White Sox, a team that has been as cold as the Rays have been hot. Having lost 8 of their last 9 games, the Southsiders fell to second place in their division for the first time since July 24. The team that supplanted them - the Tigers, whom pundits everywhere had picked to win the division hands down - follows up its two serieses against the Royals and the Twins with... two more serieses against the Royals and the Twins. A favorable schedule looks like it might seal the deal for Detroit.

AL WEST

The Rangers' 4-game lead over the second wild card leading A's represents the most comfortable lead in the AL. Splitting a 4-game series against their closest competition helped maintain the status quo, but those two teams will meet up for 3 more games to close out the season. Before that happens though, the Rangers have 3 games against the surging Angels, who just had their 5-game winning streak snapped by the Mariners. Their recent success has tied them with the Rays at just 2 games back in the race for the second wild card.


I'm sure everyone in the Commissioner's Office is hoping and praying for clear leaders to emerge, because (as I linked to before) the tiebreaker scenarios built into the last-minute decision to add another team to the playoffs are absolutely nightmarish. The fans and the broadcasters, however, want everything to go down to the wire, to keep the fans as interested as possible. As for me, I'm just hoping the A's can keep their heads down and power through after a rash of freak injuries, bad luck, and bad decisions has left them to subside on a starting rotation made up entirely of rookies. I think that story would surpass even Moneyball, and perhaps spawn another Oscar-nominated film.

First to Clinch!

Wow, nothing opens your eyes to how close we are to the end of the regular season like seeing that first playoff spot get locked up. With manager Dusty Baker sidelined with an irregular heartbeat, his Cincinnati Reds beat the Cubs to ensure themselves at least a Wild Card spot. Their ace Johnny Cueto was on the mound, which would have made me excited about five weeks ago when my fantasy team (of which he is a member) was still in contention. But now it's just another W tacked onto an impressive season.

The Reds will likely clinch their division - they need another two wins - leaving the Cardinals as the most likely contenders to battle with the Braves in the Wild Card game. The Dodgers could always pull off an impressive 11th hour comeback, but nothing seems to go right for them lately. In the other divisions, it's looking like the Giants and Nationals have no intention of slowing down for the rest of the pennant race.

In the AL version of the nothing-seems-to-go-right category, the A's just lost another pitcher for the year, despite pulling into a tie with the Orioles for the first Wild Card spot. I think it's only fitting to support the A's and celebrate their unexpected run by checking out this new music video from a very talented A's fan. Nothing is safe for the AL division leaders, as the White Sox, Yankees, and (especially) Rangers need to be constantly looking over their shoulders.

On a personal note, I've been so caught up in the inner workings of the playoff race that I completely forgot that the NFL plays on Thursday these days, and that some key players won't play due to injury. So now I have to hope my Fantasy Football team can subsist on just one RB for this week's matchup...

Oh the trials and tribulations of trying to be a two-sport fan. /sigh

Astrology Baseball Championship Preview

What an exciting September this has been! No divisional leader in the AL has a lead of more than two games. Six teams separated by less than five games in the NL Wild Card, including two surprise contenders who were both on the wrong side of big sales at the trade deadline. And the best team in baseball shut down their best pitcher for the remainder of the season. But perhaps the most exciting event that's been going on is the PLAYOFFS FOR MY ASTROLOGY BASEBALL FANTASY LEAGUE!!! GET EXCITED!!1~

For the last two weeks, the first round (also the semifinals) has been taking place. The two interdivisional matchups were the Capricorn Sea-Goats (#1 seed, Negative division) vs. the Libra Scales (#4, Positive) and the Aries Rams (#2, Positive) vs. the Cancer Crabs (#3, Negative). Below is a position by position analysis of the teams. The point totals date back to the start of the playoffs, and the winner at each position is highlighted in bold:

You'll notice right away that we have two battles of pitching vs. batting. Check out these comparisons:

- Capricorn leads Libra in all batting positions but two.

- Aries leads Cancer in all batting positions but two.

- Libra leads Capricorn in ALL pitching positions.

- Cancer leads Aries in all pitching positions but two.

In the latter case, it would turn out to be those two that made all the difference. You always hear that good pitching wins championships. In fantasy (at least the system that I use, which is also the most similar to the system used in fantasy football), the most points wins championships. Now it stands to reason that, since there are more spots for hitters than pitchers, your lineup would be a higher priority than your pitching staff. But pitchers have much higher points per game averages, so they're very important, especially in the short term (cf. Kris Medlen, below). It's a complex situation, but if it weren't complex, it wouldn't hold the interest of thousands of fans each year.

These astrology-based teams, of course, didn't get a chance to pick their players in a draft - the players were assigned based on their cosmic personalities / choices made by their parents of a conceptual (i.e. when to conceive) nature. And yet the teams in these two matchups embody two very different conceptual (i.e. the concept of team strategy) choices - whether to focus on pitching or hitting.

In Libra's case, their pitching-heavy approach is working well: they're leading a very comfortable 2,468 to 1,621 as of this writing, with only one day to go in the two-week long matchup. But there's also something very special happening with this pitching staff. Not only do they have owner of a 2012 perfect game Matt Cain, former Cy Young Award winner Zack Greinke, former Cy Young Award runner-up Jered Weaver, and the breakout pitching story of the year in free agent-to-be Kyle Lohse, but one of the hottest starters right now, Kris Medlen, is currently eligible to pitch out of an RP slot. He's currently filling in as RP2, since Kenley Jansen is on the shelf for the Dodgers until at least Tuesday. Medlen's three starts accounted for 359 points, the most of any player over the same time period. When the best competition Capricorn can send against these powerhouses is Cole Hamels followed by a steep dropoff, they're gonna be in some trouble.

On the offensive side, Robinson Cano and Andrew McCutchen are no slouches, especially at key positions on the diamond. But it's impressive that Libra could hold off Capricorn's onslaught by the likes of Albert Pujols, Edwin Encarnacion, Matt Holliday, and even the underrated Hanley Ramirez. All the more so considering Libra had nothing more than backup John McDonald to subsist on at SS (he's played in just seven games out of the last 13). Their regular star at the position (and #5 average draft pick) Troy Tulowitzki has been out since late May with a groin injury, and it's doubtful he'll return this year. Also on the injury front: dual-eligible 3B/OF Jose Bautista (#4 average draft pick) has seen his last action of 2012. Luckily two strong rookies - Yoenis Cespedes and Bryce Harper - have been able to pick up the slack in that department. 1B is also weak, with Michael Young their only eligible player there, but C got a shot in the arm when Kurt Suzuki was traded to the Nationals and regained a starting spot.

The Aries offense is not only staggeringly talented, it's also staggeringly deep, helping them to a lead of 2,383 to 1,382. Just take a look at this team's BENCH options: Joe Mauer, Hunter Pence, Jason Kipnis, and Mark Teixeira (once he returns from his calf issue). If you were going to search for cosmic patterns or tendencies regarding players born under specific signs, it would have to start with Aries, because this veritable army of fantasy stalwarts is just unfair. Aside from two legitimate MVP candidates in Miguel Cabrera and Buster Posey, Aries also boasts the top 3B who actually plays 3B Adrian Beltre, 8th ranked OF Jay Bruce, and up-and-coming star SS Starlin Castro. Derek Jeter is showing his agelessness for Cancer and Brandon Phillips and Yadier Molina are some of the game's best at weak positions, but overall the offenses don't compare.

And while Cancer's pitching staff has the depth and bullpen strength, very few can compare to Aries' 1-2 punch of Felix Hernandez (another perfect gamer this year) and Chris Sale (who's eligible to pitch as an RP, but it's actually more strategic to pitch him out of an SP slot). And even though Aries' SP3 (Mark Buehrle) scored less points on the year than Cancer's SP5 (Paul Maholm), and despite the fact that Cancer has the RP depth to keep two legitimate closers on its bench (Jason Motte and Ernesto Frieri), the loss of Stephen Strasburg was too much to overcome. I guess the Aries team proves that a couple of star pitchers coupled with an out-of-this-world impressive offense is the clear strategy to winning. Now the only issue for the rest of us is how to draft that type of team...

I'll leave you with another graphic, this one showing the two teams now almost certain to face off in the finals, along with current stats, and (because ESPN also calculates these) most recent stats:

The final playoff matchup of the fantasy season also signals the final two weeks of actual baseball's regular season (barring all the very scary and very real tiebreaker scenarios). It's been, and continues to be, a fun and awesome season, and it's been an honor to be a part of it, if only through the blogosphere.