ALCS 2014: Position-by-Position Preview

I started my position-by-position previews with the NLCS because my last post was about one of the participating teams, even though the AL's championship series will start before the NL's. But there's still time before tonight's ALCS opener between the Royals and the Orioles (say those names five times fast) to examine which team has the advantage, positionally speaking.

Royals vs. Orioles

C: Salvador Perez vs. Caleb Joseph/Nick Hundley
All-Star starter vs. replacement level... well, replacements. It doesn't take a degree in Sabermetrics to figure this one out. It would have been much more of a contest if Baltimore's opening day catcher and franchise player Matt Wieters (who was actually elected to start the All-Star game with 13.0 fantasy points per game in the season's first month) had not missed most of the season with Tommy John surgery. But if "if's" and "but's" were candy and nuts, then... how does the rest of that go?
ADVANTAGE: KCR

1B: Eric Hosmer vs. Steve Pearce
Pearce's 2014 was a feel-good story about perseverance and a great attitude towards the game, while Hosmer's was that of a much-hyped prospect who has failed to live up to expectations. I might be reading this wrong, but baseball-reference claims that Pearce was worth 6 (six) wins above replacement while Hosmer tallied just 0.8 in 2014. But all that goes out the window in the postseason: Pearce did hit a respectable .300 in 10 ALDS AB's, but Hosmer has that total beat by a full .100 with two HR's added to the mix and a key triple in the Wild Card game. Baseball might be a marathon, not a sprint, but it's also a game of momentum, and it's clear where that lies right now.
ADVANTAGE: KCR

2B: Omar Infante vs. Jonathan Schoop
Neither of these players are what you'd call offensive powerhouses: Schoop has the upside of youth (he's only 22 and a rookie) and more power in his bat, but Infante has veteran scrappiness and postseason experience (albeit with an unimpressive track record - .557 OPS in 34 games).
ADVANTAGE: KCR (but it's close)

3B: Mike Moustakas vs. Ryan Flaherty/Kelly Johnson
Again, this one wouldn't be close if Baltimore's preternaturally talented third baseman Manny Machado had not gone down for the year with a knee injury. Moustakas was on the same prospect clock as Hosmer, and like his counterpart across the diamond, he's made up for a lackluster 2014 season by blasting a couple of long balls in the division series. Also, Moose was the starting third baseman on a playoff team for the whole season, which is more than replacement-level types Flaherty and Johnson can say.
ADVANTAGE: KCR

SS: Alcides Escobar vs. J.J. Hardy
Except for his two curious power outages (2010 and 2014), Hardy has been one of the most consistent power hitting shortstops in the game for the last 8 years. And apparently his career-low power numbers this year didn't keep the Baltimore brass from signing him to a three-year extension between the two playoff serieses. Escobar has a lot of speed and is adept at laying down bunts (he was in the top 10 in sacrifice hits each of the last four years), which is clearly the most important skill to have in a Ned Yost offense.
ADVANTAGE: BAL

LF: Alex Gordon vs. Alejandro De Aza
The story of Alex Gordon is the reason Kansas City fans have to still be optimistic about Eric Hosmer/Mike Moustakas types. Gordon was a number 2 overall draft pick in 2005 who struggled at his original position of third base, but once he moved to the outfield, he finally became the middle of the order bat (and gold glove defender) they were looking for. Left field has been somewhat of a revolving door for the Orioles: Steve Pearce spent some time there before first baseman Chris Davis was suspended for attention-enhancing drugs, Nelson Cruz and Delmon Young were stashed there when not DH'ing, and David Lough is a popular defensive replacement type. De Aza was deemed expendable by the White Sox after OPS'ing .663 for them through his first 122 games, but after the trade, he busted out to the tune of and .877 OPS and hitting 3 of his 5 2014 HR's in just 20 games. A high upside player for sure, but not nearly as dependable.
ADVANTAGE: KCR

CF: Lorenzo Cain vs. Adam Jones
Cain was just recently promoted to the #3 spot in the batting order, but his main assets are his speed (28 SB in 33 tries) and defense (2.7 defensive rWAR). Meanwhile, Adam Jones is coming off three straight All-Star appearances, and while he won gold glove awards the last two years, the metrics say that he really didn't deserve them. In fact, the two are neck and neck in overall rWAR (5.0 for Cain, 4.9 for Jones), but as I mentioned above, more than half of Cain's were because of his glove whereas all but 0.3 came from Jones's bat. And a right-handed hitter who can threaten 30 homers a year while playing a difficult defensive position is a rare talent indeed.
ADVANTAGE: BAL

RF: Nori Aoki vs. Nick Markakis
Both of these guys were their teams' leadoff hitters for most of the year, until Aoki was bumped to second in the order in favor of Alcides Escobar. I'm not holding that move against him (even though I'm not sure why a guy with 1 home run and a .710 OPS should hit in a spot where you probably should have your best hitter on the team), I'm just not really sure what Aoki brings to the table except a strong hitting for average tool and (wait for it) the ability to lay down bunts. Markakis gets on base at about the same clip (.342 against Aoki's .349) and he at least has some power (he hit 14 home runs this year, pretty close to his 162 game average of 17, plus one in the division series). He also out-WAR'd the competition 2 to 1.
ADVANTAGE: BAL

DH: Billy Butler vs. Nelson Cruz
Nelson Cruz is living proof that you can make the most out of your second chance. Just a year after being suspended for using actual performance enhancing drugs, he signed a one year deal to prove he can play un-juiced and responded by leading the AL in home runs. Butler made a lot of headlines when he stole his first base since 2012 in the playoffs, but if you're a DH and you're clogging up the basepaths and you're not hitting home runs, then you're doing it wrong.
ADVANTAGE: BAL

SP1: James Shields vs. Chris Tillman
Although Chris Tillman has had a very consistent last couple of years (he averaged 33 starts, 206 innings, and a 3.52 ERA since 2013), he's honestly not an ace on many teams, let alone many of these playoff teams. Plus, James Shields has been averaging 33 starts, 223 innings, and a 3.64 ERA for the past 8 (eight) years. He is the very model of consistency, has a reputation for coming up big in the clutch (when he's not being pulled for a reliever in head-scratching situations), and will enjoy making many millions of dollars while pitching for the Yankees or Red Sox next year.
ADVANTAGE: KCR

SP2: Yordano Ventura vs. Wei-Yin Chen
Here we have a battle between the electrifying rookie fireballer and the command and control soft-tossing lefty. Not that 91 mph is Jamie Moyer-esque, but neither is it 97 mph. As you might imagine, the 23-year-old Ventura has struggled with the walk (69 allowed vs. just 35), while the 28-year-old Chen has struggled with the long ball (23 allowed, or 1.1 per nine innings, vs. 14 - 0.7 per 9). Of course Kansas City doesn't hit a lot of home runs (their 95 on the year was last in the league), but neither does Baltimore take a lot of walks (their 401 was ahead of only the Mariners and... the Royals). It's a very tough decision, but I think I have to go with the upside of the young phenom.
ADVANTAGE: KCR

SP3: Jason Vargas vs. Bud Norris
Vargas is another soft-tossing lefty (I think an 87.3 mph average fastball velocity definitely qualifies) and while Norris is by no means an electrifying rookie fireballer, he still throws hard (93.4 mph average) with a good slider and has seemed to respond well to his first taste of playing in the postseason, having shut out the powerful Tigers over 6 innings in his only playoff appearance. Vargas also pitched 6 innings against the Angels, but he gave up two runs and struck out only two, while Norris punched out one per inning. By the way, I always feel like "Bud" should be short for something like "Budrick" - but it turns out Budrick is not a real thing and Norris's first name is actually David.
ADVANTAGE: BAL

SP4: Danny Duffy/Jeremy Guthrie vs. Miguel Gonzalez/Kevin Gausman
I listed both the fourth and fifth starters under this heading because, as you know, I'm totally obsessed with the short starter/long reliever strategy when you don't have four dominant pitchers in your rotation, which I would say is definitely the norm. But even though no major league managers seem to share my views, I'm going to evaluate them as a team. Duffy and Gonzalez both severely outperformed their FIP's (Duffy's 2.53 ERA should have been closer to 3.83, but Gonzalez 3.23 should have been 4.89) and they both have pretty similar peripherals. Also, Duffy is coming off some missed time in September, so it's not clear how long he'll be able to go in a start. If we start getting into Guthrie territory, the choice is clear.
ADVANTAGE: BAL

CL: Greg Holland vs. Zach Britton
Britton has pitched brilliantly since winning the closer's spot from Tommy Hunter in early May (37 saves with a 1.65 ERA and 60 strikeouts). But Greg Holland is the best right handed closer in the game, no questions asked: he saved 9 more games, with an ERA 21 points lower (yes, LOWER than 1.65), and struck out 30 more batters.
ADVANTAGE: KCR

RP: Wade Davis/Kelvin Herrera/Brandon Finnegan vs. Darren O'Day/Tommy Hunter/Justin Miller
I thought this would be an easy pick, since Wade Davis had one of the most dominant seasons for a relief pitcher maybe ever (1.00 ERA, 72 innings pitched, 13.6 strikeouts per nine innings, better than Holland), but Darren O'Day has been no slouch himself (1.71 ERA in 68 innings with 9.6 K/9). Tommy Hunter obviously flamed out in the closer's role, but he has been very serviceable since, and while Kelvin Herrera throws gas, he has shown some vulnerability in the playoffs. Andrew Miller might be one of the most desirable relief pitching commodities going into the offseason free agent fest, but 2014 first round pick Brandon Finnegan, despite only 7 innings in 2014, is looking like he might turn into this year's Francisco Rodriguez. Plus, come on, Wade Davis, man. Unfair.
ADVANTAGE: KCR

Pretty one-sided in terms of which team has the best positional matchups, but as you know, baseball is not a game of matchups. It is a game of moments and momentum, of making the right plays at the right times and having everyone on the team rise to the occasion together. Either way, this series promises to be a lot of fun, and I will definitely be pulling for whoever wins here to go on and win the World Series. Hopefully my support doesn't curse them like it has seemed to curse the A's, but I figure it's better to speak my mind than to be superstitious.

Enjoy the ALCS tonight at 8pm ET on TBS: Very Funny!