The Gio Gonzalez/Ryan Vogelsong Matchup we Need

But not the Gio Gonzalez/Ryan Vogelsong matchup we deserve, will be what we see tomorrow, when the Giants and the Nationals face off in San Francisco in another win-or-go-home game for Washington. The Dodgers, meanwhile, have opted to throw their ace / best pitcher in baseball Clayton Kershaw to the mound on short rest against the Cardinals' Shelby Miller in an effort just to survive. There was a time (2012) when Gio Gonzalez was a top tier pitcher, a 20-game winner, a Cy Young candidate, and an unquestioned staff ace. That same year, Ryan Vogelsong - who just the year before had returned to the majors after a five year absence to start 28 games with a sub-3.00 ERA for the Giants - continued his heartwarming comeback story by helping to pitch his club to a World Series championship.

That is not how things turned out this year. To put it in fantasy point terms, in 2012 Gio Gonzalez scored 2,356 points with an average of 73.6 per game. In 2014, his totals dropped to 1,436 and 53.2. Vogelsong's 2012 vs. 2014: 1,729 / 55.8 vs. 1,268 / 39.6. Not necessarily terrible seasons for a pair of #4 starters, but also not the dominant presence you want to finish out a playoff series or keep yourselves alive. In the first three games Bumgarner/Peavy/Hudson matched up well with Strasburg/Zimmermann/Fister, and both managers have chosen to stay the course rather than shake up the routines of their top guys.


But what if there's more to this matchup than meets the eye? Remember, we saw Detroit start Justin Verlander (1,357 / 42.4) in game 2 of their ALDS with Anibal Sanchez (1,191 / 54.1) waiting on the bench. Or, as it turns out, in the bullpen. Verlander was a proven postseason performer (PPP) so he was given the start, but was unceremoniously pulled after five innings with the lead in favor of the better-performing Sanchez. What you see here is the employment of what I like to call the short starter/long reliever strategy, such as we saw with Venezuela in my home town tournament when Carlos Carrasco and Yusmeiro Petit combined to pitch most of the game. (IRL, Petit was just used in a similar long relief capacity during Saturday's 18-inning game, in which he ended up getting the win.)

Where Brad Ausmus got it wrong was that he left Sanchez in the game for only two innings before turning things over to his "bullpen proper," which only served to give up the lead. Where I think Bruce Bochy and Matt Williams will get it right is that they each have formidable pitching weapons at their disposal, and they won't be afraid to use them. Tim Lincecum (1,087 / 32.9) had 2014 stats that took a tumble after a demotion to the bullpen, but keep in mind that demotion came just after he pitched a no-hitter, so his electrifying stuff can't be doubted. Lincecum has also been a dominant PPP both as a starter and out of the pen, with a combined 5-2 record, 2.47 ERA, and WHIP of .878 in his two World Championship runs. Tanner Roark (1,979 / 63.8) made his postseason debut in the aforementioned 18-inning marathon and took the loss, but his stats show that he has been great in the regular season, remaining on a hot streak that started at the end of 2013, where he was also successful in a relief role.

I could be wrong, but pairing a mediocre starter with a potentially lights-out long reliever seems like the perfect game 4 strategy, not only to rest relievers who may have all been a part of a super long game and heinous travel situation recently, but also to get the most out of the most talented members of a pitching staff. That is, unless one team jumps out in front of the other early, but given that these two just played (I'll say it again) 18 INNINGS against each other, that seems like a little too much to hope for. Keep your eye on the box score to see if my predictions come true!