Thursday, October 2, 2014

MLB 2014 Postseason: ALDS's

Well, it's time for the American League Division Serieses, and although neither of them will include the A's, my sense of duty as a fan of baseball more than a fan of one team forces me to press on and provide some analysis for the upcoming games. Let's start with the best team in baseball, the one who would have been playing the A's had things turned out differently that fateful Tuesday night: the Anaheim Angels of Orange County which is a different county than Los Angeles County:


It's easy to see why this team was so dominant this year: Mike Scioscia was able to trot out a consistent and devastating offensive attack that couldn't be matched by anyone in their division. They scored the most runs per game in the league (4.77), tied for 3rd in batting average (.259), came in fourth in OPS (.728), and tied for the league in OPS+ (109). Mike Trout is easily the most impressive player in the game right now (even more so since Derek Jeter is retiring), Albert Pujols has shown that he can still mash when his foot's not injured, Erick Aybar can do no wrong, Kole Calhoun had a breakout season when healthy, and Josh Hamilton is still a home run threat when he's in the lineup. Things change a bit if that last guy is not available, because then you have guys like Collin Cowgill and Efren Navarro competing for time in left field, and I'm not sure if rookie C.J. Cron has nailed down the DH spot, but this lineup is still potent enough to deal some damage to any opposing pitcher.

The issue I have with the Angels is their starting pitching. Breakout ace Garrett Richards went down for the year in a freak fielding accident, and while de facto ace Jered Weaver has more experience being an ace, he's not the shut down top of the rotation presence he was in years past (three straight top 5 finishes in Cy Young voting from 2010-12). Somewhat hidden behind Richards's brilliance was the breakout campaign of rookie Matt Shoemaker, who has also been dealing with some injury issues and is completely untested in postseason atmosphere. Lefties C.J. Wilson and Hector Santiago have been pretty mediocre, and it's a good thing teams typically use four-man rotations in the playoffs, because they don't have a fifth starter to speak of. The bullpen is an uncommon strength (even if it might quite match up to the Royals' lights out staff) thanks to the acquisitions of Huston Street and Jason Grilli.

My prediction is that this team allows some stolen bases but otherwise blows Kansas City out of the water. Now onto the other ALDS which starts in approximately 1.5 hours.


The lineups have already been posted for tonight's game, so I didn't even have a chance to believe I got the Orioles one right, but the changes were minor - Nick Hundley in for Caleb Joseph behind the plate and Ryan Flaherty instead of Kelly Johnson at the hot corner. Otherwise you've got your stalwarts such as non-traditional leadoff hitter Nick Markakis setting the table for all around talent Adam Jones and pure masher Nelson Cruz. Alejandro De Aza was a particularly savvy acquisition because it gets a left handed bat in the lineup without forcing either Nelson Cruz or Delmon Young to play in the field. This team will obviously get a lot stronger when Chris Davis returns from his suspension for using Adderall and slots into the #5 slot playing 3B, but until then I certainly hope Buck Showalter's O's can hold off the playoff mainstay Tigers.

It will be a tall order for Baltimore's pitching staff, however, as they have an impressively deep starting five, but no one stopper they can rely on when the chips are down. All four of the pitchers who will presumably be a part of this team's playoff rotation won at least 10 games this year, which is an impressive feat, but it means less over the span of a short series. After the failed Tommy Hunter as closer experiment (which my fantasy team unfortunately bought into), Zach Britton has emerged as a top of the line bullpen threat (1.65 ERA with 37 saves) and Darren O'Day has continued his dominance in the setup role (1.70 ERA, 9.6 K/9). Add to that the acquisition of Andrew Miller for tough lefties (do the Tigers have any tough lefties?) and you have yourself the makings of a team that's hard to beat in the late innings.


Studies have shown that no, the Tigers do not in fact have any tough lefties in their lineup, unless you count switch hitting Victor Martinez, who is only a lefty when he wants to be. They do have one of the toughest righties of all time in Miguel Cabrera, whose injury-riddled season would be a career year for most other hitters in the game. Ian Kinsler was 100% more effective than Prince Fielder (for whom he was traded) this year, Nick Castellanos put up fine numbers as a rookie, Torii Hunter continues to do his thing, and the emergence of J.D. Martinez as a potent middle of the order bat was a big part of why this team was able to trade center fielder Austin Jackson for second ace David Price. The only change from my projected lineup is at shortstop where the recently-heating-up Andrew Romine will play over the more defensively consistent Eugenio Suarez. Let's just say that Detroit will be very excited when Jose Iglesias returns from his shin splints next year.

Where this team is nearly unmatched is in the starting pitching department. Max Scherzer and David Price might be the most intimidating 1-2 punch in baseball, and following them up with Anibal Sanchez and Rick Porcello is nothing less than a savage beatdown. Let's also not forget about Justin Verlander, whose season has not gone according to plan (both on the mound and in front of the bathroom mirror, posing for nude pics with his girlfriend), but we've seen him turn up the gas in the playoffs too many times to count him out from being a strong factor here. This is a slightly bizarre suggestion, but where Verlander actually might be most useful in the 2014 playoffs is coming out of the bullpen, since Joe Nathan hardly inspires the confidence he used to and I think Joba Chamberlain's mountain man beard will make him too top-heavy to be truly effective. We'll see what first-year manager Brad Ausmus does in late and close situations.

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