NLCS 2014: Position-by-Position Preview

For two brief outs, it looked as if at least one of my predictions for Game 4 of the NLDS would prove accurate. Gio Gonzalez had made it through four strong innings for the Nationals, and in came Tanner Roark - by all accounts the superior pitcher this year - for some (ostensibly) long relief. Roark could not hold down the fort, however, giving up two hits and loading the bases before giving way to lefty Jerry Blevins after just 2/3 of an inning. Who knows if Washington manager had planned to leave Roark in for multiple innings as I suspected he would, but sometimes the best laid plans don't turn out how you expect.

Meanwhile, on the other side of the coin, Bruce Bochy yanked his starter Ryan Vogelsong with two outs and nobody on in the sixth for lefty specialist Javier Lopez, who did his job. But then rather than giving 2014 no-hitter author Tim Lincecum the shot at a three-inning save, he went with rookie Hunter Strickland, who promptly gave up a game-tying home run to Bryce Harper. The Giants ended up winning on a wild pitch by Washington's fifth pitcher of the night Aaron Barrett, and advance to the NLCS without The Freak having thrown a single pitch in the Division Series. Have we seen some of the weirdest deployments of bullpen weapons of all time in this postseason so far or am I imagining it all? Either way, let's look ahead at the National League's championship series by doing one of my favorite playoff tropes: going position by position.

Cardinals vs. Giants

C: Yadier Molina vs. Buster Posey

It's not really fair to compare these two players either offensively or defensively, because they are very likely the best at their positions in those respective categories. Molina has had a tough injury-plagued year, but both his pitch framing skills and ability to throw out potential base stealers (he led the league with 48% of runners gunned down) can have a big impact on a game. Posey's offensive production can be favorably compared to Matt Holliday, by far the Cardinals' most dangerous hitter, and that's coming from a typically offense-light position. It's close, but I'm going to have to give it to the bat here.

ADVANTAGE: SFG

1B: Matt Adams vs. Brandon Belt

Talk about tough injury-plagued years: Belt got off to a hot start to the year, but was never the same after breaking his thumb in May. Adams, meanwhile, just singlehandedly put his team into the next round by doing the unthinkable: hitting a home run off a Clayton Kershaw curveball as a left-handed hitter. In this case, both the momentum and the full-season track record are clear.

ADVANTAGE: STL

2B: Kolten Wong vs. Joe Panik

It's the battle of the rookies! Both of these youngsters unseated veteran counterparts - although most pundits believed Wong would start for St. Louis over Mark Ellis, and Marco Scutaro played exactly five games for the Giants - and both performed well down the stretch. But here the stats speak for themselves: though Panik has a stronger OPS (.711 to .680), Wong has advantage in HR (12 to 1), SB (20 to 0), and rWAR (2.2 to 1.1).

ADVANTAGE: STL

3B: Matt Carpenter vs. Pablo Sandoval

These guys have both been incredibly clutch throughout this entire postseason. Carpenter hit three home runs against the Dodgers, but Sandoval had that huge ninth-inning RBI double to send game 2 into extra innings. This one is also close, but I have to give it to Carpenter based on his recent power surge and eye-popping plate discipline (he led the league with 95 walks).

ADVANTAGE: STL

SS: Jhonny Peralta vs. Brandon Crawford

Crawford did hit that grand slam that pretty much locked down the Wild Card game, but isn't known for hitting home runs in general (also his hair is kind of gross, but that's just one blogger's opinion). Peralta does have a (rather infamous) track record as a power hitter, and definitely is in a position to contribute more for his club as the playoffs continue.

ADVANTAGE: STL

LF: Matt Holliday vs. Travis Ishikawa/Juan Perez/Michael Morse maybe?

As I mentioned earlier, Holliday is clearly St. Louis's biggest offensive threat, so there's no question he beats out whatever replacement level scrubs the Giants can trot out while Morse recovers from his oblique strain. Even if San Francisco's opening day left fielder is be ready to play in the NLCS, he still doesn't bring the same production that Holliday does.

ADVANTAGE: STL

CF: Jon Jay vs. Gregor Blanco

In a perfect world, the Giants would have Angel Pagan out here and in the leadoff spot with Blanco filling in for Morse in left. As it stands though, these two are basically the same exact player: they both hit (and throw) left handed, they're both glove-first fourth outfielder types, they both hit for decent average but very little power, and they even ranked within 10 spots of each other according to MLB's preseason rankings (441 for Jay, 433 for Blanco). Jay has slightly more offensive prowess (.750 OPS vs. .707) but Blanco has more speed (16 SB in 21 tries vs. 6 in 9), and based on the fact that San Francisco trusts him enough to fill in as their leadoff hitter, I'm gonna have to give him the nod here.

ADVANTAGE: SFG

RF: Hunter Pence vs. Randal Grichuk

Ah, the David Freese trade is immediately paying dividends. After trading Allen Craig to the Red Sox and watching Oscar Taveras struggle at the plate, the Cardinals slotted the rookie (and #12 on the organizational prospects list) Grichuk into RF, where he put up three home runs and a .678 OPS in 47 games. Pence vs. Holliday would have been close, but this matchup is quite figuratively a no-brainer.

ADVANTAGE: SFG

SP1: Adam Wainwright vs. Madison Bumgarner

The Giants haven't announced whether Bumgarner will start on Saturday after having pitched the Wild Card game and Game 3 of the NLDS last Monday, but either way, these are the two staff aces and deserve to be compared as such. It's hard to put any NL pitcher not named Kershaw or Cueto up against the likes of Wainwright and expect them to come out on top, but MadBum has quietly turned himself into an elite starter. Wainwright has a 200 point edge in swp (to the tune of 10 ppg) and a full 2 more rWAR (6.1 to 4.0), but Bumgarner has a better K/BB ratio (5.09 to 3.58) and nearly as many complete games/shutouts (4/2 to 5/3). If these two do square up against each other in Game 1, that will be a marquee matchup indeed.

ADVANTAGE: STL

SP2: Lance Lynn vs. Jake Peavy

Did you see Peavy pitch Game 1 of the NLDS? He looked not only sharp stuff-wise, but fired up as can be. I mean, this is a guy who is excited to be back in the postseason and it shows. Lynn has flown under the radar to put up some great numbers this year (2.74 ERA, 181 strikeouts in more than 200 innings), but Peavy was dominant since he came over to the Giants at the deadline (2.17 ERA, 6 of his 7 wins on the year), and I think you have to tip your hat to the veteran exuberance on this one.

ADVANTAGE: SFG

SP3: John Lackey vs. Tim Hudson

Here's another ex-Red Sox pitcher brought in specifically for the playoff push, but this time he's playing for St. Louis. Lackey's numbers haven't been as eye-popping as Peavy's since coming to his new team (4.30 ERA, 3-3 record), but he is the PPP to end all PPP's with a career 2.92 postseason ERA in 17 starts, including the seven innings of one-run ball he threw against Los Angeles in the NLDS. Believe it or not, Tim Hudson just won his first ever postseason series at age 38 (remember he played on those famous-for-choking early 2000's Oakland A's teams) and he definitely contributed with his own seven inning, one-run performance against Washington. I think in this battle of veterans, I'm going to give advantage to the one who's slightly younger and has slightly more postseason experience.

ADVANTAGE: STL

SP4: Shelby Miller vs. Ryan Vogelsong

I guess Mike Matheny has determined that Michael Wacha hasn't sufficiently recovered from his late season injury to earn a starting spot here, despite the fact that he was lights out in the 2013 playoffs (4-1 with a 2.63 ERA in 5 starts). Shelby Miller was the opposite of that, giving up a run in his only postseason inning last year, but he pitched decently enough in the NLDS, and he did have a solid year in 2014. Ryan Vogelsong is nothing special, but Bruce Bochy does have long man Tim Lincecum waiting in the 'pen for a potential short start/long relief situation that... oh, never mind, you've heard this before.

ADVANTAGE: SFG

CL: Trevor Rosenthal vs. Santiago Casilla

Every time Rosenthal gets on the mound he just exudes the feeling that he's going to give up some baserunners. I know that the ninth inning is no joke and the pressure must be even more insane in the postseason, and I know he saved 45 games this year, but there is something to be said about that lights-out confidence that a great closer *cough Greg Holland* should have. But on the other hand it's not like Santiago Casilla inspires that much great confidence: if he did, he likely would have started the season as the Giants closer over Sergio Romo. When in doubt, I have to give the nod to the guy who's had the job all year.

ADVANTAGE: STL

RP's: Pat Neshek, Seth Maness, Randy Choate vs. Sergio Romo, Jean Machi, Jeremy Affeldt

This is a close matchup too. Romo is the former closer but Neshek is the All-Star with an ERA under 2. Maness and Machi are basically the RP versions of Jay and Blanco: both righties with much better ERA's than FIP's (2.91 vs. 3.38 for Maness, 2.58 vs. 3.43 for Machi). Choate and Affeldt are LOOGYs to the extreme. It's even a push when it comes to the long relievers: San Francisco has erstwhile starter Yusmeiro Petit, but St. Louis can counter with hard throwing Carlos Martinez.

ADVANTAGE: PUSH

So these are my opinions on how the two teams facing off for the NL Pennant stack up against one another. Stay tuned tomorrow as I try to complete a preview for the AL version before the game starts at 8pm ET.