Thursday, October 22, 2015

Developed Teams 2015: Chicago Cubs

After dispatching their division (series) rival Cardinals in four games, the Chicago Cubs were beaten handily by the Mets - they never even once had a lead in the four game sweep. But with a savvy front office ready to supplement a crop of some of the game's best prospects, the real-life Cubs could find themselves at the top of the NL Central for years to come. Let's see how they stack up with their developed counterparts:



The presence of four rookies at key positions in this starting lineup is evidence of how weak this developed Cubs team was until recently. Kris Bryant should run away with the NL Rookie of the Year award and should also get serious consideration in the MVP conversation. Kyle Schwarber has shown a seriously potent bat in his first callup to the majors this year, but although he was a catcher throughout most of his minor league career, the Cubs used him primarily as an outfielder (and exclusively so during the playoffs). Maybe management wanted to let the pitching staff throw to familiar receivers behind the plate in such high stakes situations. Either way, with catching options such as the well-traveled Welington Castillo, Rangers projected starter Robinson Chirinos, and non-rostered options Geovany Soto and Steve Clevenger, leaving Schwarber in the developed outfield seems to make sense. Jorge Soler showed a knack for postseason performance in his rookie campaign, and could develop into the next Cuban slugging sensation. And fellow powerfully-built rookie Justin Bour (both have 6'4" frames) has hit for the same power he showed as a minor leaguer in Chicago since being giving a chance to start in Miami.

The former All-Star Starlin Castro was forced from shortstop to second base in the real-life Cubs' infield by prospect Addison Russell, but he's only the developed Cubs' second-best second sacker behind breakout first time All-Star DJ LeMahieu. This means Castro could be shifted back to short, unless he is pushed to the DH spot by prospect Javier Baez. And that's not even factoring in fellow stalled but potent prospect Arismendy Alcantara. Either way, this infield outside of Bryant is filled with enigmatic characters with high upsides but short and/or questionable track records. But fortunately they've also got two of the most versatile and competent backups (Marwin Gonzalez and Ryan Flaherty) should things go amiss.

Things have an even greater chance of going amiss in the rotation, and with a significantly weaker backup plan. The rotation set forth above assumes the top two arms will revert back to the mean between their excellent 2014's and disappointing 2015's. Prior to this season, Jeff Samardzija was ranked inside the top 100 players in baseball, and the previous summer he was valued highly enough by Oakland to give up 6 seasons of above-average projected production at SS (the above-mentioned Russell) for just 1.5 seasons of the Shark's work. And Andrew Cashner showed top of the rotation stuff for San Diego in 2014, averaging an amount of points per game that would have placed him in the top 40 in 2015. But both struggled mightily this year, resulting in mid-rotation stalwart Kyle Hendricks to emerge as this team's top pitching scorer. This is not an inspiring staff ace, as I would compare Hendricks's production to that of a healthy Ricky Nolasco type, who's on this team, but who hasn't been effective in a couple of years. But the most unexpected 2015 bright spot in this rotation was Rich Hill's magnificent four-start stretch, which could possibly have earned him a major league deal this offseason after being inked to two different minor league pacts in 2015.

Rotation depth is not pretty, as rookie Zack Godley had some encouraging results in his debut stint with the Diamondbacks, but Chris Rusin looked just as bad with the Rockies. Maybe these Chicago guys should stay away from the West Coast. Although that's not the case for rookie reliever Tony Zych who had another great debut for the Mariners. He doesn't, however, profile as a closer, which gives him something in common with all the other relievers on this staff. The one with the most MLB experience is longtime Tigers setup man Al Alburquerque, but he's hardly ever gotten a chance to prove himself in late and close situations with only 1 Save (in 2 opportunities) in his 5-year career. But despite its inconsistencies, this squad has a lot of personality and a lot of talent, and I predict big things for some of these ex-Cubs as we move past the failed prediction of Back to the Future.

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