Aries - Fantasy Astrology 2020 Preview

A few days ago, the Karmic Wheel began a new rotation as the sun entered Aries. This is of course the sign under which are born the members of the Aries Rams Fantasy Astrology team. I previewed  the last two signs with projected rosters of my upcoming Fantasy Astrology League (courtesy of ESPN), which are now all done; but two major things happened since then. First, the delay of the 2020 MLB season due to COVID-19, rendering said fantasy league irrelevant in the near future. Second, the release of the newest entrant in the MLB The Show franchise, allowing me to create fantasy astrology simulations with in-game lineups. What follows is an Aries-centered comparison of the player RANKING system developed by MLB.com (i.e. 1st is best, etc), and the player RATING system used by the video game's algorithm (on a 1 to 100 scale).

Aries is represented by the Phillies, mostly because of the uniforms' red color scheme.

First, the unquestioned top end. There are only four players who receive a 99 overall rating in MLB The Show 2020: Mike Trout, Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom, and Nolan Arenado, the latter of which is the Aries third baseman. (Two of those are Leos, but that's a post for August, when we'll HOPEFULLy have some actual baseball going on.) Arenado is ranked in MLB's top 10, along with the player who is #2 on the Rams depth chart, Alex Bregman. Thankfully, Bregman and his 95 rating are also eligible at shortstop, due to Carlos Correa's frequent injuries. Matt Olson has proved himself a powerhouse on both sides of the ball, and the fact that he plays a great first base makes it even more palatable for switch-hitting Carlos Santana to occupy the DH slot. David Dahl is developing into a very solid player anywhere in the outfield, but Lorenzo Cain is the best choice to roam center field. He may even be more valuable in the game setting, where his fabulous defense counts for something.

Now to the discrepancies between the game and the fantasy rankings. Jeff McNeil carries an 89 rating into the game, making him the top option to handle second base. His ranking of 77 also affords him that honor, but given his ability to play all over the diamond, McNeil's better suited shoring up an outfield that is weak beyond the Dahl/Cain duo. This is especially true when you consider former top prospect Cavan Biggio is ranked 94 by MLB.com, so you would want that configuration to maximize a lineup with the best-ranked players (actually HIGHEST-ranked in terms of quality, but lowest sum of of ranked players). But either MLB.com is overrating young former prospects, or the game is underrating them, because Biggio has to settle for a 75 overall rating. We see a similar situation behind the plate: Buster Posey was undoubtedly one of the best catchers of the last decade, which is reflected in his 83 overall game rating. Such high marks certainly aren't reflected by Posely's 2019 production (a meager average of 7.7 points per game), which helped him fall all the way to 303 in the rankings. Much higher (at 102) is Dodgers catcher Will Smith (not to be confused with the Braves (Cancer) reliever of the same name), and he's not that far behind Posey, with a 79 rating... but he technically wouldn't win the backup catcher's job due to Tom Murphy's 82 and Mike Zunino's 81. (To be fair, if this were a real-life situation where a manager REALLY trusts Posey, you'd want Smith to get regular reps in Triple-A.

I actually did some in-depth calculations to link astrology signs to real life teams. You can read about it here:
https://thoughtsaboutbaseball.blogspot.com/2018/11/astrology-signs-to-mlb-teams.html

One thing that makes a simulation simpler than a real-world-reflecting fantasy league is the lack of injuries... at least to start the season. Red Sox ace lefty Chris Sale is rated 93 in the game, even though his ranking had been plummeting: down to 144 when play was suspended on March 10 (Pisces season). This was due due to an arm problem that led to Tommy John surgery, wiping out any of Sale's potential 2020 campaign. Another former top Aries pitcher had a lost 2019 season, as two-time Cy Young winner Corey Kluber - whose 87 ranking almost exactly mirrors his 88 rating - is newly recovered from a broken pitching arm. Even though that was injury was the result of a comebacker hit to the mound, that reminds me of the injury notification from All-Star Baseball 2001 for the Nintendo 64: "Corey Kluber is injured with a br. arm." Talk about ominous...

I give each simulated team the option of carrying up to seven (7) starting pitchers, including two in long relief roles. One of these might be an especially good option for Kenta Maeda - even though he out-rates (however slightly) the likes of Eduardo Rodriguez and Jake Odorizzi - since the Dodgers have utilized Maeda that way in the later parts of recent seasons. Another big discrepancy in rankings vs. ratings happens in the person of Frankie Montas: the suspension returnee is ranked a strong 130, but enjoys just a 76 rating in the game.

If you've looked at analysis of Aries in past fantasy astrology seasons, you may recognize the lack of an important bullpen piece: a study I did after the close of last season suggests that Indians closer Brad Hand may actually be a Pisces. However even a Hand-less Rams bullpen is still an unmistakable strength, with arguably the best reliever in the game, Josh Hader, joining with breakout closer Kirby Yates to create a lefty-righty one-two punch. And it doesn't stop there, with top setup reliever Dellin Betances, potential Pirates closer Keone Kela, the upside of Edwin Diaz, and the injured David Robertson waiting in the wings.

* Baseball Tarot *
Many years ago, when I was going through a Tarot phase, I was gifted a Baseball Tarot deck, which replaces the arcane and occult imagery of the traditional Tarot with baseball concepts and metaphors. One of the most basic two-card layouts is called "Pitch and Swing" where the first card represents the situation you're facing and the second card represents your best course of action or attitude in response. Since fantasy baseball rankings and Tarot both share aspects of Divination, I've decided to do a reading as part my analysis of each sign's upcoming season.

As with Pisces, we have one of the Major Arcana as the first card - and we finally get a reading that doesn't include the Three of Bases. The Aries "Pitch" is XII The Slump, although it is notable that this card came out inverted. Aries won the Fantasy Astrology championship back in 2017, and no team except Libra has multiple victories (since I started this project in 2012), so a two-year drought would not exactly qualify as a slump, at least not relative to the rest of the league. That might be where the inverted factor comes into play: this card corresponds to The Hanged Man in a traditional Tarot deck, and THAT card has a very different connotation when inverted (since the man is hanged upside down).

The book that comes with the Baseball Tarot deck explains that when the Slump card appears in a reading, "You are probably in a rut, experiencing self-doubts or a wave of depression, confronting difficulties that just won't go away." I wouldn't say that this outlook applies specifically to the Aries roster, excepting of course ace pitcher Chris Sale's season-ending injury. But it's an understatement to say that the sport of baseball (and the world in general) is experiencing "difficulties that just won't go away" due to the Coronavirus pandemic. Seen from this wider perspective, the Aries "Swing" card, The MVP of Mitts (Cups in traditional Tarot), can be viewed as a guide to action for everyone in this global crisis. The "Accomplishments of the Heart and Spirit" subtitle references internal awareness, trusting your emotions, and compassion, something that we could all stand to focus on during these times of quarantines and social distancing. The book describes the upside of this card's meaning as "Success in an endeavor requiring love, giving, sensitivity, or intuition," which I think is a good way to describe how we should be approaching life right now.

As I mentioned above, Aries represents the start of a new rotation of the Karmic Wheel, thus the Tarot reading associated with this sign can be expected to have wider-reaching implications than some other signs. I've given up trying to assess what this reading might say about the particular outlook of the Aries Rams team in the potential upcoming season, choosing instead to focus on the bigger picture. With that in mind, I'd like to close with one more quote from the Baseball Tarot book by Mark Lerner and Laura Phillips: "The outcome will be influenced most by your ability to recognize and experience your feelings, tap into your intuition, and act with compassion toward everyone in the situation, including yourself." Easier said than done, obviously, but good advice to keep in mind. Stay safe and stay at home, everyone!

Pisces - Fantasy Astrology 2020 Preview

As the calendar turns to the month of March, we also march into the biggest month of Pisces season. Thus, Pisces will be the next sign I'll profile in my preview of the 2020 Fantasy Astrology Baseball season. For details on this particular preview series, please check out the previous post about Aquarius. Although unlike the Water Carriers, the Fish have had some Fantasy Astrology success, winning the championship back in 2015, unseating threepeat champions Libra team, thanks to the performances of Clayton Kershaw, Jake Arrieta, and Chris Davis. I'll bet you'll be able to guess which two of those three players will start the 2020 season on the Pisces projected 40-player roster:

Remember that the fantasy rankings displayed here are current as of Valentine's Day, which is why Luis Severino is listed here, despite the fact that he will miss the entire 2020 season due to Tommy John surgery. While it surely hurts to lose a pitcher of Sevy's caliber, the Fish still have a high quality rotation, with a top end of Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw, and German Marquez. The depth falls off somewhat after that, at least considering established starters, despite the fact that Anibal Sanchez was an integral part of the World Champion Nationals last season. But in terms of replacing Severino's production, the best shots might be pitching prospect Mackenzie Gore, depending on when the Padres see fit to bring him up to the Show.

But while the Fish have lost a starter (due to injury), they actually gain a reliever (due to some bookkeeping corrections). Players aren't supposed to change teams in the Fantasy Astrology landscape, but some research I did this offseason shows that I had misclassified Brad Hand as an Aries in previous versions of this project. Hand joins the Pisces player pool prior to 2020, joining flamethrowing Cuban Aroldis Chapman to form arguably the best lefty-lefty bullpen duo in the league. The bullpen is deep too, with former/potential closers Scott Oberg, Daniel Hudson, Sergio Romo, and Emmanuel Clase.

The same bookkeeping corrections that delivered Brad Hand also took away longtime shortstop Didi Gregorius, who is in fact an Aquarius. The incumbent shortstop, Jean Segura, will maintain his eligibility, even though he is moving over to second base in Philadelphia to make room for... you guessed it, Didi Gregorius. But as soon as Segura does qualify at the keystone, he'll move to make room for Blue Jays recent prospect graduate Bo Bichette. Speaking of infielders north of the border, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. didn't break out last year like we all hoped, but everyone believes the potential is there. Still, he might need to look over his shoulder at Miguel Andujar, depending on his role/production with the Yankees.

As far as locks for the roster, J.T. Realmuto is arguably the best catcher in the game. Jorge Soler, Nick Castellanos, and Tommy Pham should fill up the corner OF/DH slots, leaving center field for Michael Conforto, and creating a camp battle at first base between Trey Mancini and Rhys Hoskins. That leaves Kyle Schwarber to fight for a bench spot against two of baseball's most versatile utility players: Marwin Gonzalez and Niko Goodrum.


* Baseball Tarot *
Many years ago, when I was going through a Tarot phase, I was gifted a Baseball Tarot deck, which replaces the arcane and occult imagery of the traditional Tarot with baseball concepts and metaphors. One of the most basic two-card layouts is called "Pitch and Swing" where the first card represents the situation you're facing and the second card represents your best course of action or attitude in response. Since fantasy baseball rankings and Tarot both share aspects of Divination, I've decided to do a reading as part my analysis of each sign's upcoming season.

Divination really sucks sometimes. All the excitement after pulling one of the Major Arcana for the "Pitch" (XVI: Whole New Ballgame), only to be totally crestfallen when the "Swing" turned out to be the same card I pulled for Aquarius (Three of Bases: Shake-Off). However, this time it was inverted? That's gotta count for something? But back to that momentous first card: in the traditional Tarot deck, Whole New Ball Game corresponds to The Tower, a card that represents a period of great upheaval. While lightning striking a scoreboard depicting a dramatic comeback by the home team doesn't evoke the same catastrophe as the traditional art (where the eponymous tower is literally crumbling and its denizens are falling to their dooms), it's clear that a shocking change is in store.

The biggest change that comes to mind between when I made the above charts and now is Luis Severino's elbow injury. The book that comes with the deck features the bullet point "The Deeper Truth Comes Out" in its entry for this card, and in this case, the deeper truth could refer to the rotation depth that will be necessary to get through the season. Another change in the Pisces roster involves the departing/arriving players (i.e. Didi Gregorius and Brad Hand, respectively), which could correspond to the "Chaos Leading to New Knowledge" bullet point in the book. In either case, the important thing Pisces should focus on is staying grounded so as best to cope with surprises: either the ones that already happened, or the ones that are in store.

As for the inverted Three of Balls, I wrote about that one last time, saying that it represents "admitting unhappiness," knowing something is wrong, and realizing you must make a change. Obviously this dovetails nicely with the catastrophic change that's depicted in the first card, but the fact that the Shake-Off is inverted could represent an unwillingness to accept this change (kind of like the GM who says the team will "rely on internal options" in the wake of a significant injury). Or it could mean that an unorthodox, out-of-the-box solution is necessary in this case (e.g. the opener strategy). Either way, big things are clearly on the horizon for Pisces in 2020.

Aquarius - Astrology 2020 Valentine's Day Preview

If Valentine's Day falls during Aquarius season, does that mean Aquarius is the most romantic astrological sign? I know that it's the first sign, both alphabetically and also according to the calendar, going by the months in which each sign starts. I also know that it has historically been the worst sign by far at producing quality major league baseball players born under its constellation. At least in the past two decades for which I have data: it might surprise you to know that both Babe Ruth and Hank Aaron are Aquarians, so there was a time when the sign had some respectability. But then again, so were Vladimir Guerrero and Roberto Alomar, and the sign still faltered in the late 90's.

Either way, the 2020 Aquarius Water Carriers (or Water Bearers? Is that better?) look to continue the trend of Fantasy Astrology Baseball bottom feeders. This fact is illustrated in AQU's current 40-player roster, as determined by me, the commissioner of the only known Fantasy Astrology Baseball league on the Internet. As a Valentine's Day present to myself, I reactivated the league and started work on the rosters for 2020, the first results of which you'll see below.

First, the Aquarius pitchers, sorted by 2019 position (i.e. starter or reliever) and then MLB.com's fantasy player rankings. The first thing to note is that the top two scoring starters from 2019 (Jeff Samardzija and Marco Gonzales) don't even project to make the rotation based on the rankings. I'm honestly not sure what the pundits see in Adrian Houser to make them rank him ahead of those two, plus recent injury-returnee Johnny Cueto. While he's slated for a rotation spot this coming year, the "Position 2" column shows that he split last year between the rotation and the bullpen, and it's not like he performed better as a starter - 4.57 ERA in 18 starts (80 innings), vs. a 1.47 ERA in 17 relief appearances (30 innings). But for a sign that's been as hard up as Aquarius has been in the recent past, they surprisingly have plenty of starting pitching depth.

The relief pitching depth, on the other hand, isn't quite as impressive, but it doesn't need to be, since the starting lineups in my league are set up with five starters and just two relievers. Some signs don't even have two dedicated closers, let alone two star closers such as Roberto Osuna and Liam Hendriks, so AQU is very well set up in that respect. Of course it all falls apart if one of them were to get injured or suspended for some reason... but that's the case for many positions for many signs around the Fantasy Astrology league.

And now the Water Carrier batters, which is where things really start to slide downhill. A cursory glance will reveal just two position players in the top 100, and just one in the top half of the top 100: Whit Merrifield, who will likely spend most of his time in the outfield to make room for Rougned Odor at second base. Joining Whitley in the outfield are two center field capable players, Max Kepler and Bryan Reynolds, with former platoon player Mark Canha able to step in. As an A's fan, I hope the top brass gives Canha more regular playing time, even against southpaws, as opposed to throwing plate appearances to replacement level lefties like Robbie Grossman (ranked a toothless 766).

2020 is especially interesting for AQU, since it will be the first year with their "new" starting shortstop, Didi Gregorius - the resources I had previously been using to determine birth signs had incorrectly identified him as a Pisces. It's not like this sign has been lacking help up the middle, with Dansby Swanson and Brandon Crawford as mainstays, but it never hurts to have more talent on hand. Speaking of supplanted infield stalwarts, it seems likely that long time third baseman Todd Frazier might lose playing time to 2019 breakout performer Tommy La Stella, super utility type Jon Berti, or even up-and-coming prospect Ke'Bryan Hayes before the season is over.

* Baseball Tarot *

Many years ago, when I was going through a Tarot phase, I was gifted a Baseball Tarot deck, which replaces the arcane and occult imagery of the traditional Tarot with baseball concepts and metaphors. For example, the Major and Minor Arcana are renamed the Major and Minor Leagues, and the four suits comprising the latter are changed from Cups, Swords, Wands, and Coins to Mitts, Balls, Bats, and Bases. One of the most basic two-card layouts is called "Pitch and Swing" where the first card represents the situation you're facing and the second card represents your best course of action or attitude in response. Since fantasy baseball rankings and Tarot both share aspects of Divination, I've decided to do a reading as part my analysis of each sign's upcoming season.

For Aquarius, the Pitch was Assist (Twelve of Bases) while the Swing was Shake-Off (Three of Balls). My first impressions of these cards are that they're both defensive (a fielder makes an assist and the pitcher shakes off a sign from their catcher), indicating that now might not be the year that Aquarius will storm to the top of the Fantasy Astrology league. Referring to the book included with the deck, the entry under Assist starts with the heading "demonstrating reliability," which in this situation calls to mind the lyric in the song "Heart" from the musical Damn Yankees: "The team has been consistent." "Yeah, we always lose!" One aspect of this card is understanding expectations, which, for Aquarius, are understandably low. On the other hand, the entry for Shake-Off starts with "admitting unhappiness," knowing something is wrong, and realizing you must make a change. Something has decidedly been wrong with Aquarius's performance, based on their place in the Fantasy Astrology standings... but what exactly must change to turn them into contenders will have to come to light over the course of a long season.