Wednesday, December 1, 2010

NL Central Divisional All-Stars

Going geographically, the NL Central stars are next:





























(Does the center alignment of all the names look strange to you? It usually looks more professional, more "baseball," if the names are aligned left. And maybe if the stats were aligned right...)

Among these players - all of whom are among the best in the NL Central - we can recognize a few players who are among the best in the Game right now.

First of all, the 1B / DH / really just another 1B combination of MVP Joey Votto and MVP-runner-up Albert Pujols. Interestingly enough, you can see that the eventual winner was outscored in swp by the loser - and baseball-reference's version of WAR (wins above replacement, remember those?) agrees: 7.4 for Pujols, 6.9 for Votto. But here's the real kicker: when determining how swp relates to WAR, Pujols and Votto had exactly the same swp/WAR ratio.

Votto: 2,650 / 6.9 = 384
Pujols: 2,843 / 7.4 = 384

Coincidence...? YOU DECIDE!

Matt Holliday may very well turn out to be one of the game's best outfielders, but he doesn't do everything particularly well enough for him to be considered one of the greats. Rickie Weeks had a fantastic season, but he's been inconsistent because of injuries. Andrew McCutchen has the "tools" to become a star, but he's not quite there yet.

On the pitching side, Adam Wainwright has blossomed into an absolute staff ace. Four years since converting from a reliever, he's shown that he has the staying power to lead a competitive rotation. Roy Oswalt pitched like one of the best in the game during his 11 starts for Philadelphia... but he didn't pitch nearly that well for the Astros, or overall. If Chris Carpenter once was one of the best in the game, he's not pitching like it now.

Given what's out there now, Carlos Marmol certainly looks like one of the top 6-8 closers in the game right now. Evan Meek had a deserved All-Star season as a rookie, but we know how volatile the middle relief position can be... or we soon will be.

One more thing of note: a possible catching snub - of defensive whiz Yadier Molina in favor of more offensively-minded Geovany Soto. The race was reasonably close: Soto had 1,157 swp with Molina at 1,058. We all know that swp takes no account of defensive stats... so when comparing swp to WAR, I've used only offensive WAR. Molina, the fan-voted All-Star starter by a landslide, picked up 1.7 defensive WAR in '010. Soto, who struggled mightily last year, but bounced back after slimming down, is sitting pretty at 0.0 - he is exactly a replacement level defensive catcher. But in terms of offense, Soto's 3.2 oWAR blow Molina's 1.4 out of the water.

One has to admit: when factoring WAR into swp, a clear winner emerges. Soto actually had the lowest swp/WAR ratio of anyone on this NL Central team:

Soto: 1,157 / 3.2 = 362
Molina: 1,058 / 1.4 = 756

The next highest is Evan Meek: a middle reliever whose swp isn't inflated by saves:

Meek: 990 / 2.6 = 381

Then come Votto and Pujols with 384. What this means is that swp scored by players with low ratios are somewhat undervalued and points scored by players with high ratios are overvalued. What does that mean, in the big picture? I haven't the slightest idea. Ask me again next off-season.

No comments:

Post a Comment