If the Season Ended Today: All-Star Break 2015 - Wild Card Round

When the All-Star Break comes around, all of my baseball attention (and most of my life attention) is spent on updating the massive Excel spreadsheet that tracks the roster status and fantasy progess of every player in the major leagues. The existence of this database gives the lie to a piece of advice from The Dark Knight Joker: If you're good at something, never do it for free. Problem is, I don't have any time to find someone to pay for the creation of such a database - because I've spent all my time on creating the database itself.

But that's fine, because creating the database is a complete labor of love, what some would probably describe as flow activity, whatever that means. It's also something I do pretty compulsively, so I try to find ways to spread it out, timewise, to prevent overflow of influx of information. One such way is to whittle the database down into a manageable size, e.g. a playoff bracket constructed as if the season ended today - although rather than today, I'll use the All-Star Break.

First is the Wild Card round in the NL, cuz it's the closest contest - not between the two participants, but rather between the contestants for the second wild card spot. As of the All-Star Break, the Chicago Cubs just beat out the New York Mets by mere percentage points for the right to face the Pittsburgh Pirates. Below is an infographic featuring a selection from my database showing projected lineups of each team, along with all the copious information contained for each player.

The first thing to look at when analyzing a Wild Card Game is the starting pitcher, because each team only gets one. On paper, both number one starters are nearly equal, at least according to the super accurate fantasy point scoring system I like to use. But Pittsburgh's Gerrit Cole just carries himself more like a dominating ace - he's a former #1 overall draft pick, and for the first time he's starting to pitch like it. The Cubs would also have somewhat of a moral dilemma in choosing a starter for this game, since they do have October legend Jon Lester on the roster. But if I were in Joe Maddon's shoes, I'd most likely give the nod to Jake Arrieta, since he's been better at getting opposing batters out over the last four months.

These two clubs have a similar skill profile at the top end of their offenses with Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant matching up rather well with Andrew McCutchen and Starling Marte. As of this image capture, the Pirates were already dealing with some injury issues, with Josh Harrison suffering from a thumb injury and their #1 DH option Corey Hart down for the long haul with a shoulder impingement. But in the following days, things would only get worse for both teams, with Pittsburgh shortsop Jordy Mercer going down with an MCL sprain and Chicago catcher Miguel Montero dealing with a thumb injury of his own. The difference is that the Cubs have yet another top prospect Kyle Schwarber waiting in the wings, while the Pirates will have a hard time finding the necessary depth to plug their holes. But again, since in this situation the season's ending at the All-Star Break, these later developments are moot points.

On the AL side of the equation, this could be the least-predicted matchup in the history of midseason playoff projections as the Twins and Astros combined to lose 184 games last year. But a couple of top prospect promotions, an overhaul of both bullpens, and just the right amount of veteran leadership brought the future to the present for these two young clubs. Again, looking at the starting pitchers first, AL All-Star starter and highest scoring pitcher in the AL Dallas Keuchel might be a tall order for Minnesota, especially considering the Twins don't have a bona fide ace to throw into the mix against him. Kyle Gibson has put up the best numbers so far, but Phil Hughes is the bigger name and Ervin Santana just returned from his suspension, so this rotation situation is very much up in the air.

Both of these teams have an All-Star second baseman leading off: Brian Dozier and Jose Altuve have vastly different skillsets, but they are both extremely valuable players. Both teams are also dealing with offensive injuries: George Springer has a fractured wrist (he's being replaced by rookie Preston Tucker), and top prospect (literally) Byron Buxton has a sprained thumb (his roster spot goes to Aaron Hicks). Additionally, both teams have a recently promoted top prospect holding down their lineup: Houston has had Carlos Correa playing shortsop since the beginning of June, while Minnesota called up Miguel Sano a month later to be their primary DH, since Trevor Plouffe is both entrenched at third base and out of minor league options.

Once I finish all the teams in my database, I'll probably pick up a copy of MLB 15: The Show and run a simulation of this projected playoff bracket - either that or I'll move right into creating rosters based on fantasy astrology or a redux of my developed teams project. Until then, I'll keep doing these write-ups for the next few days.