I'm starting with the NL Wild Card game because it involved some of the closest playoff race at the break. The Brewers, who challenged for a wild card spot last year, had secured a one game lead, but behind them were four teams contending for three spots that were separated by less than a full game in the standings. In the NL East, the division of two of the season's most surprising contenders, the Phillies led the Braves by just a half game, while out west, the Diamondbacks trailed the Dodgers by the same amount. But given the precise winning percentages as of the 2018 All-Star Break, the NL Wild Card Game would be Milwaukee vs. Atlanta. Let's start with the Braves because a) they come first alphabetically, b) they would be the away team in this scenario, and c) however else I want to justify starting with the Braves.
Since this experiment is all about the All-Star Break, it's worth noting that the Atlanta roster has four All-Stars: fan-elected starters Freddie Freeman and Nick Markakis (making his first All-Star appearance) join fun-loving second baseman Ozzie Albies and staff ace Mike Foltynewicz, who made it via the player ballot. The green shading in superprospect Ronald Acuna's Position 1 column denotes his rookie status, the green in Pos 2 indicates that he was just added to my database this previous offseason (as a non-roster invitee to Spring Training), and the italic type shows that this is his first year in the majors. The only notable offseason acquisition on the Braves offense (yellow shading in the Name columns) is Charlie Culberson, the guy who would serve as the DH if the National League would get its act together; as it stands, he has manned left field, while Acuna was a) having his service time repressed, or b) injured.
If Atlanta managed to get past this hypothetical play-in game, they would be well positioned in terms of starting pitchers for a Division Series. Julio Teheran is a former ace himself, Sean Newcomb is living up to his top-prospect billing, and Anibal Sanchez is pitching near his peak career levels at age 34. Teams don't usually utilize a fifth starter in the playoffs, but that honor would go to now-injured Brandon McCarthy (505 points on the year, 33.7 PPG, or points-per-game). Speaking of injuries, closer Arodys Vizcaino (827 / 25.1) has been dealing with shoulder issues all season long, leaving a group of surprisingly effective, yet not at all recognizable rookies to hold down in the relief corps. A.J. Minter was seen by many as a successor to Vizcaino (hence his moderate preseason ranking), Shane Carle is a reclamation project from the Rockies (by way of the Pirates), Dan Winkler is ... (checks notes) arbitration eligible two more times, and Jesse Biddle (407 / 13.6) had some top prospect fanfare back in 2012-14 with the Phillies, but is just this year making his MLB debut. This strikes me as a team that could stand to add a shutdown arm to the back of their bullpen down the stretch.
If you thought Atlanta's four All-Stars were impressive, how about FIVE for the Brewers!? Player ballot honorees Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain happen to be two of the most significant offseason acquisitions league wide (one via trade, the other signed as a free agent). Breakout first baseman Jesus Aguilar won the NL's Final Vote (TM) competition. And then we have quite possibly the most controversial bullpen duo in the game: former hate-Tweet spewer Josh Hader (player ballot) and multiple substance abuse suspension server Jeremy Jeffress (chosen as a replacement for injured Nationals closer Sean Doolittle, who has racked up 1,267 points and 36.2 PPG on the year). It's been rumored that Milwaukee has been on the lookout for pitching help, so it's possible that the pitcher who might start a hypothetical Wild Card game might not yet be on the roster. But as things stand now, they're looking at the somewhat unimpressive Jhoulys Chacin, or Chase Anderson, or perhaps a combination of the two.
Injuries have really hit the Brewers hard this year, causing them to do a significant amount of midseason tinkering (represented by the light blue shading in the Name columns). Were they not each on the 10-day DL, Ryan Braun (702 / 9.9) and Eric Thames (670 / 13.4) would have helped shore up the outfield/first base situation. Jonathan Villar (642 / 7.4) wasn't playing great before he got hurt, prompting GM David Stearns to pick up Brad Miller from the Rays. And the catching situation has been in such disarray - with Manny Pina (430 / 7.3) on the DL and Stephen Vogt suffering a career-threatening shoulder injury - that they have to rely on journeyman Erik Kratz. And that's not even counting projected starting outfielder Domingo Santana (343 / 5.5), who played so poorly to start the year that he was optioned to the minors, and then bypassed by Keon Broxton when the team needed outfield reinforcements. That's the same fate suffered by former shortstop-of-the-future Orlando Arcia (228 / 3.5), whose poor play (combined with that of the since-released Eric Sogard, 84 / 1.5) led to the acquisition of utility infielder Tyler Saladino from the White Sox.
The Brew Crew's rotation has had its share of issues as well, with Junior Guerra (868 / 48.2) and Zack Davies (163 / 20.4) also on the disabled list at the time of the All-Star Break. It's worth noting that Guerra and the three above-mentioned position players have since been activated from their DL stints, but remember, it's not technically if the season ended ON TODAY'S DATE, but rather as of the All-Star Break. Of course, if we did extend the cutoff to today, starter Brent Suter would replace Guerra on the DL (he's out for the year with an elbow injury), and the team would also have access to former White Sox closer Joakim Soria (730 / 19.7), who was acquired just moments ago.
Stay tuned for more hypothetical mid(ish)-season playoff series projections!
If Atlanta managed to get past this hypothetical play-in game, they would be well positioned in terms of starting pitchers for a Division Series. Julio Teheran is a former ace himself, Sean Newcomb is living up to his top-prospect billing, and Anibal Sanchez is pitching near his peak career levels at age 34. Teams don't usually utilize a fifth starter in the playoffs, but that honor would go to now-injured Brandon McCarthy (505 points on the year, 33.7 PPG, or points-per-game). Speaking of injuries, closer Arodys Vizcaino (827 / 25.1) has been dealing with shoulder issues all season long, leaving a group of surprisingly effective, yet not at all recognizable rookies to hold down in the relief corps. A.J. Minter was seen by many as a successor to Vizcaino (hence his moderate preseason ranking), Shane Carle is a reclamation project from the Rockies (by way of the Pirates), Dan Winkler is ... (checks notes) arbitration eligible two more times, and Jesse Biddle (407 / 13.6) had some top prospect fanfare back in 2012-14 with the Phillies, but is just this year making his MLB debut. This strikes me as a team that could stand to add a shutdown arm to the back of their bullpen down the stretch.
If you thought Atlanta's four All-Stars were impressive, how about FIVE for the Brewers!? Player ballot honorees Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain happen to be two of the most significant offseason acquisitions league wide (one via trade, the other signed as a free agent). Breakout first baseman Jesus Aguilar won the NL's Final Vote (TM) competition. And then we have quite possibly the most controversial bullpen duo in the game: former hate-Tweet spewer Josh Hader (player ballot) and multiple substance abuse suspension server Jeremy Jeffress (chosen as a replacement for injured Nationals closer Sean Doolittle, who has racked up 1,267 points and 36.2 PPG on the year). It's been rumored that Milwaukee has been on the lookout for pitching help, so it's possible that the pitcher who might start a hypothetical Wild Card game might not yet be on the roster. But as things stand now, they're looking at the somewhat unimpressive Jhoulys Chacin, or Chase Anderson, or perhaps a combination of the two.
Injuries have really hit the Brewers hard this year, causing them to do a significant amount of midseason tinkering (represented by the light blue shading in the Name columns). Were they not each on the 10-day DL, Ryan Braun (702 / 9.9) and Eric Thames (670 / 13.4) would have helped shore up the outfield/first base situation. Jonathan Villar (642 / 7.4) wasn't playing great before he got hurt, prompting GM David Stearns to pick up Brad Miller from the Rays. And the catching situation has been in such disarray - with Manny Pina (430 / 7.3) on the DL and Stephen Vogt suffering a career-threatening shoulder injury - that they have to rely on journeyman Erik Kratz. And that's not even counting projected starting outfielder Domingo Santana (343 / 5.5), who played so poorly to start the year that he was optioned to the minors, and then bypassed by Keon Broxton when the team needed outfield reinforcements. That's the same fate suffered by former shortstop-of-the-future Orlando Arcia (228 / 3.5), whose poor play (combined with that of the since-released Eric Sogard, 84 / 1.5) led to the acquisition of utility infielder Tyler Saladino from the White Sox.
The Brew Crew's rotation has had its share of issues as well, with Junior Guerra (868 / 48.2) and Zack Davies (163 / 20.4) also on the disabled list at the time of the All-Star Break. It's worth noting that Guerra and the three above-mentioned position players have since been activated from their DL stints, but remember, it's not technically if the season ended ON TODAY'S DATE, but rather as of the All-Star Break. Of course, if we did extend the cutoff to today, starter Brent Suter would replace Guerra on the DL (he's out for the year with an elbow injury), and the team would also have access to former White Sox closer Joakim Soria (730 / 19.7), who was acquired just moments ago.
Stay tuned for more hypothetical mid(ish)-season playoff series projections!
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