Saturday, July 28, 2018

If the Season Ended Today 2018 AL Wild Card

Previous Post: NL Wild Card

The American League Wild Card situation was somewhat more settled than the National League at the All-Star Break, with the Yankees and the Mariners trailing two of the league's most powerful superteams (the Red Sox and the Astros, respectively). If we were using today's date as the cutoff (as opposed to the All-Star Break), things would have tightened up a little, given the otherworldly play of the A's recently, but this would still be the matchup if the season ended TODAY today.



The Yankees had four players selected to the 2018 AL All-Star Team, but only two appeared in the game: starting outfielder Aaron Judge and ace pitcher Luis Severino. Closer Aroldis Chapman and star rookie infielder Gleyber Torres (816 points on the year, 13.0 points per game) were also elected via the player ballot, but were deemed unavailable for the proceedings. Torres was replaced on the All-Star roster by Oakland second baseman Jed Lowrie (1,196 / 12.7), whose team is currently just 1.5 games behind Seattle for the right to face New York in this game. In real-life, Torres has since been activated, but while he was on the shelf, offseason acquisition Neil Walker covered second base. Another injured starter who has been activated since the All-Star Break is catcher Gary Sanchez (728 / 11.6), but he was actually since placed BACK on the DL just days later, so it's going to be more Andrew Romine for the Bronx Bombers. Speaking of bombers, perhaps the biggest blockbuster acquisition of the offseason, Giancarlo Stanton, hasn't exactly lived up to the expectations since arriving in New York, but he's still a formidable force in the middle of the lineup.

While I'm sure every Yankee would prefer that their team surge forward and win the AL East rather than having to fight their way through a one game playoff, I'll bet Luis Severino would relish a second chance at a Wild Card Game, after making it through just 1/3 of an inning in last year's contest against the Twins. If New York should so happen to make it into the divisional round again, their best bet to start Game 1 would be Masahiro Tanaka, who has shown flashes of brilliance this year, or CC Sabathia, an 18-year veteran whose knee has given him so much trouble that he has at times contemplated retirement. As of the All-Star Break, manager Aaron Boone's best option for a number four starter would be the extremely disappointing Sonny Gray, but the trade market has been active since play resumed, and GM Brian Cashman just swung a deal with the Blue Jays two days ago to net lefty starter J.A. Happ (1,038 / 54.6) to shore up the middle/back of the rotation. Similarly, in the bullpen, if we extend the cutoff from the All-Star Break to Present Day, the Yankees would have access to a SECOND shutdown lefty reliever behind Chapman: former Orioles closer Zach Britton (249 / 16.6), whose numbers are less impressive than normal due to his recovery from offseason knee surgery.



Like New York, Seattle also had four All-Stars on the 2018 AL roster, but unlike New York, all four of them played in the game. Closer Edwin Diaz earned ("earned") the win, after also blowing the save in the ninth inning. (Incidentally, the game was closed up by the newest member of the Yankees, J.A. Happ, who was representing Toronto in the game.) Final Vote winner Jean Segura hit a big pinch hit home run that likely would have earned him All-Star Game MVP, if not for his teammate's late inning collapse. And Player Ballot recipients Mitch Haniger and Nelson Cruz combined for three plate appearances with one time reaching base between them (a walk by Cruz). The two players with cyan shading in their Last Name column shows that the game's busiest GM Jerry Dipoto has been at it again, striking an early deal with the Rays to net an outfielder and a late inning reliever.

The addition of Denard Span is especially important since the PED suspension of Robinson Cano (488 / 12.5) forced offseason acquisition Dee Gordon to move from center field back to his old position of second base, thinning out the outfield depth - although that still hasn't tempted manager Scott Servais to deploy Cruz in the outfield for even a single inning, causing his fantasy stock to suffer. On the injury front, the Mariners have seen significant losses, both on the mound and behind the plate. As impressive as Marco Gonzales has been this year, all things being equal (i.e. healthy), the clear choice to start a one-game playoff would be James Paxton (1,295 / 64.8). And of course possible Hall of Famer Felix Hernandez (656 / 34.5) would be a much better option to round out a playoff rotation (or even serve as a tag-team long reliever, given Wade LeBlanc's strong season) than whatever replacement level minor leaguers happen to be hanging around. And lastly (at least alphabetically), catcher Mike Zunino (435 / 7.3) has been activated in real life, but he remains sadly unavailable for this particular thought experiment.


National League Division Series coming up next!

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