NL All-Stars: this one's worth at least a nickel

I did some more work on the analysis of these votes. Unfortunately, I didn't do said work until after I cast my first 25 votes. Even though I gave some dudes some undeserved recognition, it was a learning experience for me - I learned a lot more about traditional vs. meaningful statistics by evaluating these players two different ways than I could have by taking an online course.

For the first round, I used the MLB.com All-Star voting helper, which lists all the players from each position in a sortable chart. You can sort by At-Bats, AVG, HR, RBI, and SB. Keep that in mind when I say who I voted for.

For the next round of analysis, I delved a little deeper: all 3 "slash stats" (AVG/OBP/SLG), OPS, HR/RBI, BB/K, SB-CS, WAR (wins above replacement), and fielding runs above average. This is a good mix of mainstream and newfangled stats that covers pretty much all bases (offensive production, basepath prowess, and defensive skills).

Here's what I found:

NL 1B: Albert Pujols
Is there really any other alternative? Well, yes, actually. Adrian Gonzalez, while none of his at-the-plate (.978 to .908 OPS) or on-the-bases (6 to 0 SB) stats measure up, the Padres slugger plays good enough defense to outfield Phat Albert by 7 runs above average (+6 to -1). What does defense really matter? you might ask. Well, according to WAR, it makes a great deal of difference: Gonzalez currently has a 2.8 WAR with Pujols at 2.3 WAR. Pujols is a beast though; I stand by my choice.

NL 2B: Chase Utley
He's been caught stealing this year, for the first time since 2008. He doesn't blow his competition away in terms of power (.478 SLG to Dan Uggla's .505 and Kelly Johnson's absurd .550), or walks (they're all three hovering in the low 30s) - but in the middle of June, he's already got at least 20 fewer strikeouts than those other two. He's also 8 runs better in the field (+5 to -3 for both other guys). Total package: he's a good pick.

NL SS: Hanley Ramirez
If I had this vote to do over again, I would have absolutely picked Troy Tulowitzki. Even looking at the traditional stats, it was pretty much a toss-up. But when you factor in SLG (.493 to .473) and defense (+5 to -5; both stats in favor of Tulo), it's no contest. Oh, if I could turn back time...

NL 3B: Ryan Zimmerman
He's head and shoulders ahead of everyone else as far as I'm concerned. OPS over 1, just about as many walks as strikeouts (which makes for a .416 OBP, .45 points higher than his best competitor Scott Rolen). Rolen does beat the Z-Man in terms of SLG (.613 to .594), but Zimmerman gets bonus points for playing on the same team with Stephen Strasburg. So there.

NL C: Rod Barajas
Of all the choices I made in the first round of voting, this is the one I regret the most. Looking back, I can pinpoint two reasons for making this choice: home runs (there was just something so tantalizing about a catcher with double digit home runs (11) before the break) and Rob Neyer. The catcher for whom I should have voted - Miguel Olivo - plays for the Rockies. He had started the season barely ahead of Chris Iannetta on the depth chart, but with the general understanding Iannetta's a better player and that he would surely take over when he got his sea-legs back. This caused the sabermetric community to frame Olivo's situation as somewhat of a pretender to the throne.
I didn't want to honor someone like that with an All-Star spot. But look at the numbers, offensive and defensive: an OPS .140 points higher than Barajas (.944 to .803), and a difference of 9 fielding runs (+7 to -2). WAR backs up this new analysis: 2.1 to 0.8 in favor of Olivo. Never again...

NL OF: Andre Ethier, Jason Heyward, Ryan Braun
Even though the ballot lets you select three general outfielders, I usually like to try to pick one from each position. This year I didn't do that, plain and simple. Ethier was an easy pick, as he leads all outfielders in HR, even after missing significant time with a broken finger. His defense is a little suspect (-6), but his league-leading OPS (1.088) more than makes up for it.
I voted for Jason Heyward because I was enamored of his .400 OBP - .20 points higher than any other outfielder except Ethier (.422) - and his .510 SLG - surpassed only by Alfonso Soriano (.550), Jayson Werth (.552) and Ethier (.667!).
After Barajas and Hanley Ramirez, Ryan Braun's my pick that mystifies the most. I was looking too much at his AVG (.306) and his steals (11-0!) and not enough at his OPS (.859) or his defense (-9!). What can I say? I like players who hit for power and steal bases with high regularity (see my vote for Alex Rios).

Here's who else I considered:
Jayson Werth (mentioned above) has knocked the cover off the ball (10 HR, .552 SLG) and played an average right field (0 runs above average... but also 0 below). Matt Kemp has a lot of home runs (most of which he got early, so they're considerably less impressive now), but he's on-base less than 34% of the time (.338), he fields below average in center field (-4), and he's caught stealing as much as he's successful (9-9). Andrew McCutchen doesn't have high production stats (7 HR, 17 RBI), but that's mostly due to batting leadoff and playing for the Pirates. But look at the other facets of his game: 14-4 stolen base record and an astounding 13 fielding runs above average! Michael Bourn was in contention solely because of his speed and defense: 20-6 SB-CS and 11 fielding runs above average. He's what they call a "two-tool player."

If you've been paying attention to the patterns, you might notice that Wins Above Replacement (WAR) favors a good defender more than a fast guy (high SB) or a guy who has a talent for getting his bat on the ball (high AVG). With that in mind, here's how my contenders ranked in terms of WAR (an * represents those players for whom I cast my votes):

2.3 - Andrew McCutchen
1.9 - *Andre Ethier
1.9 - *Jayson Werth
1.9 - Michael Bourn
1.7 - Jason Heyward
0.9 - Matt Kemp
0.8 - *Ryan Braun

I'm really sad that I may have slighted a great all-around player like McCutchen, just as he was slighted last year in the NL Rookie of the Year voting. I promise to make it up to him next time around.

AL All-Stars: My Two Cents

This week was all about the young kids: two high-profile prospects had their major league debuts, one decidedly more impressive than the other. Meanwhile the amateur draft is ongoing, with third round action taking place today. (There's a cool reminder on MLB.com urging people to keep watching by listing all the functional major leaguers who were drafted after the 30th round. Spoiler alert: there aren't many.)

But before I talk about the future stars, I want to take a moment to focus on the current stars.

A few weeks ago I started evaluating All-Star candidates from all the divisions. After getting one-third of the way through, I abandoned the project, due mainly to boredom and an increasingly busy work schedule. But luckily I've decided to revisit the 2010 All-Star game on a slightly more manageable scale: by voting!

Last week I did my part and voted 25 times for the players I deemed most worthy to represent their clubs in the midsummer classic. Once some of the statistics solidify, I plan on voting 25 more times from a second personal email, then 25 additional times from my work email, and 25 times apiece for whatever other email addresses I can scrounge up. It's not that I have particularly strong opinions about All-Star hitters (cuz fans don't vote on pitchers, they're selected by the managers) - I just like to know that I'm getting my voice heard.

So without further ado, here's my best guess at who should start for the 2010 AL All-Star Team:

AL 1B: Justin Morneau
I picked Morneau above Miguel Cabrera because of his rate stats: not only does he lead all AL first basemen in AVG, he leads the entire AL in OPS (and it's two component stats, OBP and SLG). Cabrera also has an impressive OPS and he's driven in a bunch of runs, but Morneau's got the edge in walks and defense - that's right, we can now measure this kind of stuff midseason! This year Morneau is 8 runs above average, Cabrera is 2 runs below average.

AL 2B: Robinson Cano
This one is pretty much a no-brainer. Leads all second basemen in traditional stats (.370 AVG, 12 HR, 45 RBI), has an OPS above 1, and is playing a pretty good second sack to boot. Not a hard decision to justify.

AL SS: Elvis Andrus
I couldn't vote for Derek Jeter. I just couldn't. The sole reason for that: I don't think he's having a better season than Andrus. Elvis gets on base more (.397 to .349), steals more (18 to 6), hits better (.311 to .299), and fields better (although neither fields particularly well: -1 to -6). Jeter hits more home runs (6 to 0) and has played for longer (15 full seasons to 1). In terms of WAR (wins above replacement - a complicated formula that figures how much better a particular player is than an average Triple-A hitter), they're basically equal: 1.2 for EA, 1.3 for DJ. I stand by my choice, if for no other reason than web gems.

AL 3B: Evan Longoria
Of all hot-cornerers, only Adrian Beltre has a better .AVG, but Longo beats the pants off everyone in terms of OPS. He's out-produced his closest competitor (10 HR, 46 RBI to A-Rod's 8 and 43), and he's out-ran the field by half (10 SB, Nick Punto has 5 and doesn't bring much of anything else to the table). He's got the total package, and he's got my vote.

AL C: Joe Mauer
I voted for Mauer mainly on the strength of his batting average and his MVP season last year. Not a strong foundation, I know. I thought Jorge Posada might have deserved a spot due to his power bat, but his availability is questionable due to injury (which has also limited his playing time), so I was torn. I also like Kurt Suzuki (despite his on-base inefficiencies) and Victor Martinez (despite his defensive inefficiencies). But despite all this deliberation, Mauer still has the highest WAR of the group (1.8). So sabermetrics backs me up.

AL DH: Vladimir Guerrero
Since the game's in an AL stadium, we get to vote on a starting DH! (But only for the AL team; this might change in future years, as the DH-in-the-All-Star-Game is expanding to all stadiums.) This is another no-contest: David Ortiz and Jose Guillen and Andruw Jones all brought their home run sticks this season, but their peripherals don't compare: he's the only full time DH candidate with a WAR over 1.0.

AL OF: Ichiro Suzuki, Nelson Cruz, Alex Rios
I like Ichiro's AVG/OBP/SB combo. Even though he's fielding below average, his presence on the basepaths makes him a force to be reckoned with.
Nelson Cruz also as questionable availability due to injury, but I just couldn't resist voting for that monstrous OPS (1.134!). He's also a perfectly average defender, so you don't lose anything there.
Alex Rios won't win a starting spot. He's not a big enough name. But look at that power/speed combo: 12 HR, 18 SB, while playing a perfectly average centerfield, which is a new position for him. Despite his lack or recognition, Rios actually has the highest WAR of all the outfielders I considered in WAR (2.2).

The only outfielder with a higher WAR is Seattle's Franklin Gutierrez (2.6), which is mostly because his defense (9 runs above average) is good enough to offset his anemic bat (.794 OPS)... and because he hasn't yet been caught on the basepaths (7-0 in steals).
Here are the others I considered: Jose Bautista, who somehow leads the majors with 18 HR. He doesn't get his bat on the ball nearly enough (.246 AVG), but he walks a ton (39), and his raw power has earned him a WAR of 2.0.
Vernon Wells, who has found some long-missed power (15 HR, 40 RBI). His defense is still a pretty sorry sight (-8), and his OBP is subpar.
On the other end of the spectrum, Carl Crawford is as good in the field as Wells is bad (8 runs above average). He's got very little power, but he makes up for a lot of that deficit with real good speed.

It's a weird crop of outfielders this year. But I suppose I stand by my choices. If Cruz's return doesn't look promising by the time I get around to voting again, I'll probably replace him with Bautista or Wells.

My picks for NL All-Stars later in the week.

New Manager Watch: Baltimore Orioles

Woo, it's draft day! I'm gonna wait until some of the dust settles for commentary, since I'm not liveblogging. Instead, I'll pick up on a piece of news from a few days ago.

In the midst of an abysmal season, the Baltimore Orioles fired their manager (Dave Trembley) and replaced him with a rookie (Juan Samuel). The problems with the Orioles this year don't have much to do with the way they're managed: new ace Kevin Millwood hasn't won a game (0-6), their first basemen and shortstops have hit a combined zero (0) home runs, and Ty Wigginton is the club's lone offensive producer.

But when a team struggles, one of the classic strategies is to oust the guy in charge rather than enter into a full-on roster overhaul. Which got me thinking about how well the practice has worked out in the past. I did some digging and here's what I came up with.

Since the start of the Wild Card Era (1994), 51 teams have replaced their managers mid-season. The obvious first question is: How well did these teams fare? Of the 49 teams that have played complete seasons (we're not counting the '010 Orioles or Royals, both of whom underwent managerial changes this year), only 12 finished with overall winning records (24.4%). Of those 12, six made it to the playoffs. Of those six, only two have won playoff serieses: the '04 Astros beat the Braves before falling to the Cardinals in the NLCS, and the '03 Marlins took the World Series against the Yankees.

How did the new managers compare to the guys they replaced? 37 out of 49 replacements led their teams to better records than their predecessors, for a pretty impressive 75.5% success rate. Beware of sample size alert here, because I didn't do as dutiful due diligence as I might have. I didn't count the replacements who managed just one or two games before being replaced themselves - six teams of the 49 (12.2%) used three managers in a single season. The Royals have done it twice and counting - 2010 is still relatively young after all.

Who have changed their managers in this way? Four teams have changed managers four times in this span: the Reds, the Royals (and counting), the Astros, and the Blue Jays. Three teams have changed three times: the Brewers, the Mariners, and the Orioles (and counting). The pattern does not continue, with eight teams changing two times - I'm counting the Expos/Nationals as one team for the purposes of this exercise. Nine teams have had one change. I haven't listed them all to avoid just rattling off all the teams.

If you've been doing the math, you'll see that not every team has undergone a mid-season managerial change. The following six teams have been well-managed enough to avoid replacing their skippers on the fly: the Yankees, the Twins, the A's, the Braves, the Padres, and the Giants.

When did these mid-season managerial changes occur? Well, they mostly occurred in 2002, when seven teams changed the man in charge. That's 1/7th of the total changes over the 16 year span I'm measuring. The next most changes-per-year is five (2001). Then six years had four managerial changes ('09, '08, '07, '05, '04, and '96). Two years had three changes, four years had two changes, and one year had one change. Only in 2006 did no teams find it necessary to fire their manager in the middle of the year.*

*When counting the number of managerial changes per year, I'm counting the number of teams that changed their managers rather than the number of actual managerial changes.

Who has been replaced the most? That honor goes to Phil Garner who was unseated three times ('07 Astros, '02 Tigers, and '99 Brewers). Three managers have been replaced twice: Jimy Williams , Buddy Bell, and Bob Boone. Five managers have done double replacement duty: Pete Mackanin, Joe Maddon (both for the Angels), Jim Riggleman, Jerry Narron, and Jack McKeon.

I'm not going to list everyone here, but this is an interesting statistic: there are an astounding 21 managers who have both replaced someone and have been replaced. Some of that is because a guy replaces someone, fills the position for several years, and then is replaced himself (e.g. Clint Hurdle, Dave Trembley). Some of it might be because some people just have a knack for being in the right place at the right time.

What can we learn from all this? Questionable. It's more trivia than evidence for anything. The factors that go into making a team perform well or poorly are so expansive and encompass so much more than just the manager that you can't really pin a dramatic turnaround or collapse on just the man in charge. But it was at least fun for me to sift through the stats to mine some percentage sound-bytes.

Back to Baseball

Wow, it's been a while.

In the days and weeks and month since I've last posted, a lot has happened in the great sport of baseball. Another perfect game (after this one). An absolute gem that would have been the season's third perfect game, were it not for a blown call (the key players have since kissed and made up). A baseball legend has left the show (and not a moment too soon). A future star is on the verge of making it to the show. And a top prospect is just days away from making his first splash.

I've also attended two games (this one here and that one there) that I haven't had a chance to write about. But I've been so frazzled and busy with other things that I haven't even had time to vote on the All-Star game. I couldn't even tell you who's in first place across the divisions.

I don't have much to say here now. I just want to acknowledge the news, put some words up here and hope that posts will beget posts.

So in conclusion, loyal readers, keep watching for my contributions to the blogosphere, but don't hold your collective breaths.

NL West's projected All-Stars

Let's jump right in with the hottest/most surprising team in the division:

Everyone's been talking about Adrian Gonzalez: whether he'll be traded, to whom, for how much, etc. All this buzz might generate more All-Star talk than his 2010 performance has garnered, but just based on his walks and reputation, I wouldn't be surprised if he gets a vote just to be polite. Meanwhile, across the diamond, Chase Headley has been productive, but I don't know about All-Star caliber.

Aside from a couple of very impressive ERA's (Jon Garland's 1.71 and Wade LeBlanc's 1.61), the Friars pitchers have been generally underwhelming. Closer Heath Bell (9 saves, 1.20 ERA) might very well get a nod over the brilliantly-performing relief staff, both long (Tim Stauffer) and middle (Luke Gregerson), the game's true unsung heroes.

Quite frankly, no one on the Giants offense deserves a second look. But their pitchers are a different story: Tim Lincecum's basically a lock, with his miniscule 1.71 ERA and league-leading 64 K's. Barry Zito has an impressive ERA (1.91), but hasn't missed nearly as many bats. Even Matt Cain and Jonathan Sanchez are putting up impressive numbers, but, again, probably nothing All-Star worthy. Closer Brian Wilson is throwing hard, and with 34 spots, there's more room than ever for an extra one-inning guy.

The only real no-brainer for the Dodgers is Andre Ethier who's currently leading the league in triple-crown categories - in fact, I'll be surprised if he doesn't start in right field. Matt Kemp got off to a good start, but has since slowed down, and apparently stopped trying. Manny's hitting close to .400, and if he can stay hot since coming off the DL, he'll have a shot too. On the pitching side, Hiroki Kuroda's been lights out and Jonathan Broxton has struck out about a bathousand-per-nine-innings, so I wouldn't be surprised if we heard "Iron Man" blaring out of Anaheim's PA system at some point on 7/13/10.

Wow, the Rockies' offense sure fell asleep, huh? The only one with even decent numbers is Carlos Gonzalez, who has a bunch of RBIs and a fair average, but little power/speed. Top brass won't have any trouble filling that one-spot quota, as Ubaldo Jimenez (and his 0.93 ERA) is basically guaranteed a spot - he might even compete with reigning Cy Young-er Tim Lincecum to start the game.

A couple of big power threats hang out in Arizona: surprising 2B Kelly Johnson and 3B Mark Reynolds are tied (with Ethier) for the league lead with 10 HR apiece. Surprisingly enough, Reynolds (who set a major league record with 223 K's last year) doesn't even have the most on his team - he currently trails RF Justin Upton (45 to 42). With Dan Haren struggling, Brandon Webb on the DL, and their bullpen in the midst of an epic collapse, one of the previous two batters will have to go to Anaheim.

It's a bigger All-Star Game, but Who's Playing???

The 2010 All-Star Game will be bigger than any before it, at least Roster-ically speaking. Rosters have been expanded to 34 players, allowing for yet another pitcher just in case we get stuck in one of those embarrassing 7-7 tie (2002) or another 15-inning nailbiter (2009). The fans will continue to vote on the final player, as they have since 2002... except back then they were voting for the 30th member of the squad.

That's all well and good. If the powers that be want to make more people All-Stars, so be it. Pregame introductions will just take a little bit longer. And certain players will be getting more bonuses for being named All-Stars. Which will force owners to pay more to players, which could cause ticket prices to rise. Whatever. Not like that hasn't been the trend for the past decade...

With the ever-expanding roster, the convention of including at least one All-Star from each team won't be enough. I'd say that once the rosters reach 40, they'll have to amend it to include at least two All-Stars per team. But that's all speculation.

Seeing as the current rule still stands, I'd like to take some time and evaluate each roster for the players most likely to be selected by Messrs. Girardi and Manuel to back up the fans' selections. A month-and-a-half into the season's not too early for such an evaluation, right? I mean, it's not too early to vote on the actual All-Star starters, so there you go.

Let's start with the host team, the Anaheim (they're in Anaheim, so that's what we'll call them) Angels, and their division, the AL West.

Offensively for Anaheim, there's only one candidate: 1B Kendry Morales. Bobby Abreu hasn't taught him how to walk yet, a feat he supposedly performed on teammates Chone Figgins (last year) and Erick Aybar (this year). But he's got 7 home runs and a team-high .821 OPS (just edging Torii Hunter's .820). On the mound, Jered Weaver looks like a pretty strong candidate with a 2.66 ERA and a K/BB ratio of 4.70. New closer Fernando Rodney has been deceptively unimpressive (2.87 ERA, 0.91 K/BB) thus far.

Texas has a few batters that would be good fits. Elvis Andrus: defensive whiz of a shortstop, speedster (13 SB), walks as much as he strikes out (21/22) - no sophomore slump for this ROY-runner-up. Vladimir Guerrero has a chance now that every ASG (even when the NL hosts) will now feature a starting DH; fans love a good comeback story featuring a gimpy 35-year-old with bad knees who drives in runs (26). And Nelson Cruz has an OPS over 1.000 (he'll likely be recovered from his hamstring strain by Friday).

C.J. Wilson, in his first season as a full-time starter, has avoided giving up too many runs (1.51 ERA), but that's mostly due to his not having given up a home run yet, as his peripherals aren't great. His successor in the bullpen - phenom Neftali Feliz - has 9 saves and has struck out nearly 10 batters per nine innings.

The Oakland A's's anemic offense doesn't deserve to send anyone to the ASG this year. Their pitching is a different story. Dallas Braden has all but earned his spot with a WHIP under 1.000 and a perfect game under his belt. Their next most consistent starter, Brett Anderson, might have landed a spot (2.35 ERA) had he not been placed on the DL after just 4 starts. And closer Andrew Bailey hasn't allowed a run yet (fingers crossed, knock on wood) over 11+ innings and 6 saves.

I don't know how much they usually reward defense in the ASG, but Mariners CF Franklin Gutierrez (who's mostly known for his glovework) is also getting on base at close to a .400 clip this year. Ichiro has stolen 9 bases, but hits only singles (.326 avg, .388 slg). Doug Fister's such a surprise/no-name that I wouldn't be surprised if he was passed up this year (despite his league-leading 0.881 WHIP). If Cliff Lee continues to pitch well (he's made only 2 starts this year due to injury) his name recognition could propel him above his more-deserving teammate.

There's my prognosis. I'd be surprised if the West is represented by anyone not among this group. Anyone want to take bets?

Perfect Game Watch: No. 19

I must admit that I've been in a sort of Baseball-funk lately. Disasters dominate the news - both man made and natural. Work gets more and more demanding. Other personal projects take precedence. And as much as I try to make this blog about baseball in general, and not just the Oakland A's, my first and foremost team for which to root, when you're boys are slumping in the early goings, it makes it that much harder to pay attention to other stuff around the league. A flurry of disabled list moves (including catcher Kurt Suzuki and lefty starter Brett Anderson), the failure to notch any hit bigger than a single for games on end - these things wear on the casual and devoted fan alike.

So imagine my surprise when I walked into a restaurant for a nice Mother's Day dinner and saw the TV showing a recap of today's A's/Rays game... which ended in Dallas Braden completing the 19th perfect game in Major League history! Just a couple of weeks after going toe-to-toe with one of the game's biggest (and highest-paid) stars (on the mound and via press conference), Braden retired 27 Rays in a row on the day devoted to mothers. A date that's all the more poignant considering Braden's mother passed away while he was in high school.

His grandmother was one the scene to congratulate him, after his teammates finished their barrage of bearhugs and high-fives. What better way to bring your team up to .500 on the season?

Congratulations, Dallas! Let's hope this act of perfection can act as a jump-start not only for a middling A's team, but also for my attention in this our nation's greatest pastime.

Speed Never Goes Into a Slump...

Ever hear an announcer say that? I have. Was it confusing to you? It was to me. Until I saw it in action. What just happened in the Angels vs. Tigers game is a perfect example.

Austin Jackson, Detroit's rookie centerfielder, lays down a perfect bunt that just died off the end of the bat a few feet down the third base line. Angels catcher Mike Napoli tries to make a play: he overruns it a little, expecting it to keep rolling, lunges out with his glove, grabs the ball, makes a quick transfer and a strong throw... but unfortunately the throw was aimed at the ground just wide of the first baseman, and Jackson gets to second. Jackson made it to second, and was credited with a base hit, while Napoli was charged with an error.

Now, Jackson wasn't necessarily in a slump, as he came into the game hitting .311, but the point is: speed always gives you another way to get on base. If you're fast, you can drop a bunt down and hope to beat it out... no matter what your batting average/on base percentage happens to be at the time. And it's the curious case of slumps that if you get on base in any way - be it a line drive or a walk or a bloop single - it helps you get out of the slump. Like John Lennon said: it's all in your mind.

So Jackson's great speed allowed him to get to first, and Napoli's failed throw to first allowed him to advance to second. But speed on the basepaths is a double-edged sword - no sooner had Johnny Damon stepped into the batter's box, but Jackson breaks for third... and is thrown out by Napoli: 2-5 caught stealing.

So after screwing up a play at first base, Mike Napoli gets a chance to redeem himself... or did he? Replays show that, although the throw clearly beat Jackson to the base, Angels third baseman Brandon Wood, never actually tagged the would-be basestealer out. But apparently, for the umpire, seeing that the fielder has the ball before the runner arrives at the base is enough to call the runner out.

Unjust? Certainly! Derek Jeter had a similar issue with a similar (failed) tag by Scott Rolen last year.

Likely to change any time in the future? Almost certainly not. This seems to be a theme with umpires, that they let fielders get away with "shortcuts" - such as the shortstop not quite toe-tapping second base as he completes a double play. But as frustrating as these gaffes/allowances are, it used to be much worse. Watching the occasional MLB Network old-timey game preview, those umps in the '70s and '80s let players get away with much more than they do now. And not just fielders: you know those borderline check-swing calls nowadays, where the first/third base ump will call a strike if the bat just barely sneaks across the plate? Back in the day, those were pretty much exclusively called balls. And they call this making progress.

Speaking of speed, Reggie Willits just showed off his speed in center field for the Angels, barely reaching a sinking line drive off the bat of Magglio Ordonez... or did he just trap it? No one can really know. I guess it's better than doing the whole thing with computers...

Grand Slams and Guitar Licks: Dodgers vs. Giants 4/16/10

Hey, did you see that guy from Colorado pitched a no-hitter last night? Exciting stuff. And Cal Ripken feels slighted by the Orioles? For no apparent reason, according to Peter Angelos? This is all great stuff for the Macro-Baseball world, but two nights ago I spent some time observing and absorbing details from the Micro-Baseball world. Here's a rundown of what happened.

The Commute on the LA freeways wasn't all that bad - it's just that I had to leave so late from work that I missed the entire first inning. I was close enough that as I walked up I could hear the stadium erupt after Matt Kemp & Andre Ethier's back-to-back home runs. The preferred parking pass helped (shout out to StubHub with their cool packages, and to my friend who put the whole thing together), because it let me off right next to our seats (Loge Level, down the left field line, just foul of the foul pole). But even so, when I got in the stadium, it was already 3-0 Dodgers.

But the excitement soon started up again as Ethier hit a grand slam in the second inning! The crowd goes wild! Everyone's on their feet cheering! High fives all around with the new friends I made in the stands! It was a slam indeed, and a grand one at that.

As the dust settles, I sit back down and take stock of the game so far: 7-0 Dodgers. The Giants have yet to record a hit. And my friends have yet to arrive. Their plan was to take the Metro from the Valley to Downtown, and then take a free Dodger Stadium shuttle from there. But a late start and unexpected gameday traffic slowed them down, and they didn't show up until the 4th.

I know public transit would be great for traffic into/out of downtown, and a light rail down Wilshire would revolutionize beach traffic. But what about the instant rise in crime, such as what the Baltimore suburbs experienced with the introduction of their rail system. Plus it takes fans over an hour to get to the game!

By the time my friends did get there, Manny had already left the game. It's as if he asked his teammates, "Are we really gonna let them score more than 7 runs? No? Okay, then, I want out." But I later learned from Inside Sources that Manny has had some quad trouble since their series in Pittsburgh. I guess it's as good a time to give him some rest as any.

Padilla's no-hitter lasted until we got up to get beers. ($12.25 for a large beer?!?!?!?!!!? It would have been cheaper at the actual counter rather than the express lane, but even $10 would have been more than extravagant.) But he got himself his "Quality Start" by getting thru 7 innings while allowing 3 runs or fewer. He looked good, hitting 93-94 on his fastball with his big slow curve working very well. He even pulled out his knuckle-esque looper, which topped out at about 59 mph. It's just that he works so insufferably slow that I was surprised that the nine-inning affair didn't last much longer than three hours.

During the 7th-inning stretch, we were graced by a virtuoso performance of "God Bless America" by none other than legendary guitarist Slash of Guns N' Roses! He had a backwards baseball cap on in place of his signature top hat, but his axe sounded just the same as ever. Jack Nicholson may go to every Lakers game, but the only place to catch rock gods in action is Chavez Ravine.

Things got a little rocky for the Dodgers' pen after Slash's performance, as starter turned failed-starter turned (soon to be failed) reliever Russ Ortiz gave up two runs and two additional baserunners before coming out of the game. Those runners scored (plus one more) when Ramon Troncoso, who came in to bail out Ortiz, gave up a homer. I don't even remember who hit it, that's how eager we all were to see this thing over with. But our boys in blue hung on to beat the hated rival Giants in the two teams' first meeting of the year.

Walking out of the ballpark, to the strains of the Dodgers' victory song - Randy Newman's "I Love LA" - I was reminded of why Tommy Lasorda refers to Dodger Stadium as "Blue Heaven on Earth."

Live VIEWING OF A GAME!

I recently made arrangements to see my first live game of the 2010 season: Dodgers vs. Giants, the first time the teams will meet in '010. Since I'm neither hip enough to be on Twitter nor savvy enough to own a smartphone, I won't be sending out real time updates from the stadium. Instead, I'll just sit back, relax, take in the sights/sounds/smells, and try to catch a Manny Ramirez foul ball.

Before I go to a game, I like to build up as much background information as I can. That way I'll have all the trends, slumps, streaks, and storylines at my fingertips so I don't have to devote valuable energy to thinking while I'm at the ballpark - I feel like I'm not truly comfortable unless I'm multitasking, but trying to do too many things at once (watch the game, eat a hot dog, AND rack my brain to try and remember Edgar Renteria's batting average) can get a little hectic. So here's a rundown.

Who's Hot:

- The Dodgers' outfield: Now that Ethier's back from a minor ankle injury, the Dodgers outfield is hitting .369 with 5 HR and 24 RBI over a combined 21 games. All three have OPS's over 1.000. And with Friday's game the first of a three game series against the hated rival Giants, AND taking place after an off-day, you can bet that all three will be in the lineup.

- The Giants' infield: Of the four guys around the horn, first baseman Aubrey Huff is the only one with an average below .340. If you count catcher Bengie Molina, they look even better: Molina's been hitting the ball at a .455 clip over the first < 2 weeks. They're kind of a motley crew of veterans, but if they continue hitting, they're a fine group - just don't plan on building a franchise around them.

Who's Not:

- Either starting pitcher. Vicente Padilla shocked the world when he was named the Dodgers' Opening Day starter, and shocked far fewer citizens when he faltered in his first two starts. Not that Padilla is a bad starter - it's just that he's not the guy who's ever really projected the "number 1 starter" mentality (if that even exists). But it's becoming clear that the numbers placed on starting pitchers in the rotation (barring your clear "No. 1's" such as Lincecum, Greinke, Halladay, Sabathia, etc.) matter less than who ends up pitching the most effective innings.

Todd Wellemeyer had exactly one decent full season as a starter, and it came during a period (2008 with the Cardinals) when maverick manager Tony LaRussa had the maverick idea to play fast and loose with the pitchers on his staff. Veteran late reliever Braden Looper hadn't started a game in his MLB career until 2007 under LaRussa. Ditto Adam Wainwright - just replace "veteran" with "young and promising." At the same time, the Cardinals' closer - Ryan Franklin - was just recently converted from a starter in 2006 (by Philadelphia and Cincinnati combined).

My point is, it's not out of the question to suggest that Wellemeyer's out of his element starting games. Don't get me wrong, he's a fine fifth starter when your top four are Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Barry Zito, and Jonathan Sanchez. But Giants fans shouldn't have a high degree of optimism when he pitches.


Rest assured I'll let everyone know what happens during the game... not in real-time, but not necessarily in fake-time either.