I did some more work on the analysis of these votes. Unfortunately, I didn't do said work until after I cast my first 25 votes. Even though I gave some dudes some undeserved recognition, it was a learning experience for me - I learned a lot more about traditional vs. meaningful statistics by evaluating these players two different ways than I could have by taking an online course.
For the first round, I used the MLB.com All-Star voting helper, which lists all the players from each position in a sortable chart. You can sort by At-Bats, AVG, HR, RBI, and SB. Keep that in mind when I say who I voted for.
For the next round of analysis, I delved a little deeper: all 3 "slash stats" (AVG/OBP/SLG), OPS, HR/RBI, BB/K, SB-CS, WAR (wins above replacement), and fielding runs above average. This is a good mix of mainstream and newfangled stats that covers pretty much all bases (offensive production, basepath prowess, and defensive skills).
Here's what I found:
NL 1B: Albert Pujols
Is there really any other alternative? Well, yes, actually. Adrian Gonzalez, while none of his at-the-plate (.978 to .908 OPS) or on-the-bases (6 to 0 SB) stats measure up, the Padres slugger plays good enough defense to outfield Phat Albert by 7 runs above average (+6 to -1). What does defense really matter? you might ask. Well, according to WAR, it makes a great deal of difference: Gonzalez currently has a 2.8 WAR with Pujols at 2.3 WAR. Pujols is a beast though; I stand by my choice.
NL 2B: Chase Utley
He's been caught stealing this year, for the first time since 2008. He doesn't blow his competition away in terms of power (.478 SLG to Dan Uggla's .505 and Kelly Johnson's absurd .550), or walks (they're all three hovering in the low 30s) - but in the middle of June, he's already got at least 20 fewer strikeouts than those other two. He's also 8 runs better in the field (+5 to -3 for both other guys). Total package: he's a good pick.
NL SS: Hanley Ramirez
If I had this vote to do over again, I would have absolutely picked Troy Tulowitzki. Even looking at the traditional stats, it was pretty much a toss-up. But when you factor in SLG (.493 to .473) and defense (+5 to -5; both stats in favor of Tulo), it's no contest. Oh, if I could turn back time...
NL 3B: Ryan Zimmerman
He's head and shoulders ahead of everyone else as far as I'm concerned. OPS over 1, just about as many walks as strikeouts (which makes for a .416 OBP, .45 points higher than his best competitor Scott Rolen). Rolen does beat the Z-Man in terms of SLG (.613 to .594), but Zimmerman gets bonus points for playing on the same team with Stephen Strasburg. So there.
NL C: Rod Barajas
Of all the choices I made in the first round of voting, this is the one I regret the most. Looking back, I can pinpoint two reasons for making this choice: home runs (there was just something so tantalizing about a catcher with double digit home runs (11) before the break) and Rob Neyer. The catcher for whom I should have voted - Miguel Olivo - plays for the Rockies. He had started the season barely ahead of Chris Iannetta on the depth chart, but with the general understanding Iannetta's a better player and that he would surely take over when he got his sea-legs back. This caused the sabermetric community to frame Olivo's situation as somewhat of a pretender to the throne.
I didn't want to honor someone like that with an All-Star spot. But look at the numbers, offensive and defensive: an OPS .140 points higher than Barajas (.944 to .803), and a difference of 9 fielding runs (+7 to -2). WAR backs up this new analysis: 2.1 to 0.8 in favor of Olivo. Never again...
NL OF: Andre Ethier, Jason Heyward, Ryan Braun
Even though the ballot lets you select three general outfielders, I usually like to try to pick one from each position. This year I didn't do that, plain and simple. Ethier was an easy pick, as he leads all outfielders in HR, even after missing significant time with a broken finger. His defense is a little suspect (-6), but his league-leading OPS (1.088) more than makes up for it.
I voted for Jason Heyward because I was enamored of his .400 OBP - .20 points higher than any other outfielder except Ethier (.422) - and his .510 SLG - surpassed only by Alfonso Soriano (.550), Jayson Werth (.552) and Ethier (.667!).
After Barajas and Hanley Ramirez, Ryan Braun's my pick that mystifies the most. I was looking too much at his AVG (.306) and his steals (11-0!) and not enough at his OPS (.859) or his defense (-9!). What can I say? I like players who hit for power and steal bases with high regularity (see my vote for Alex Rios).
Here's who else I considered:
Jayson Werth (mentioned above) has knocked the cover off the ball (10 HR, .552 SLG) and played an average right field (0 runs above average... but also 0 below). Matt Kemp has a lot of home runs (most of which he got early, so they're considerably less impressive now), but he's on-base less than 34% of the time (.338), he fields below average in center field (-4), and he's caught stealing as much as he's successful (9-9). Andrew McCutchen doesn't have high production stats (7 HR, 17 RBI), but that's mostly due to batting leadoff and playing for the Pirates. But look at the other facets of his game: 14-4 stolen base record and an astounding 13 fielding runs above average! Michael Bourn was in contention solely because of his speed and defense: 20-6 SB-CS and 11 fielding runs above average. He's what they call a "two-tool player."
If you've been paying attention to the patterns, you might notice that Wins Above Replacement (WAR) favors a good defender more than a fast guy (high SB) or a guy who has a talent for getting his bat on the ball (high AVG). With that in mind, here's how my contenders ranked in terms of WAR (an * represents those players for whom I cast my votes):
2.3 - Andrew McCutchen
1.9 - *Andre Ethier
1.9 - *Jayson Werth
1.9 - Michael Bourn
1.7 - Jason Heyward
0.9 - Matt Kemp
0.8 - *Ryan Braun
I'm really sad that I may have slighted a great all-around player like McCutchen, just as he was slighted last year in the NL Rookie of the Year voting. I promise to make it up to him next time around.
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