This week was all about the young kids: two high-profile prospects had their major league debuts, one decidedly more impressive than the other. Meanwhile the amateur draft is ongoing, with third round action taking place today. (There's a cool reminder on MLB.com urging people to keep watching by listing all the functional major leaguers who were drafted after the 30th round. Spoiler alert: there aren't many.)
But before I talk about the future stars, I want to take a moment to focus on the current stars.
A few weeks ago I started evaluating All-Star candidates from all the divisions. After getting one-third of the way through, I abandoned the project, due mainly to boredom and an increasingly busy work schedule. But luckily I've decided to revisit the 2010 All-Star game on a slightly more manageable scale: by voting!
Last week I did my part and voted 25 times for the players I deemed most worthy to represent their clubs in the midsummer classic. Once some of the statistics solidify, I plan on voting 25 more times from a second personal email, then 25 additional times from my work email, and 25 times apiece for whatever other email addresses I can scrounge up. It's not that I have particularly strong opinions about All-Star hitters (cuz fans don't vote on pitchers, they're selected by the managers) - I just like to know that I'm getting my voice heard.
So without further ado, here's my best guess at who should start for the 2010 AL All-Star Team:
AL 1B: Justin Morneau
I picked Morneau above Miguel Cabrera because of his rate stats: not only does he lead all AL first basemen in AVG, he leads the entire AL in OPS (and it's two component stats, OBP and SLG). Cabrera also has an impressive OPS and he's driven in a bunch of runs, but Morneau's got the edge in walks and defense - that's right, we can now measure this kind of stuff midseason! This year Morneau is 8 runs above average, Cabrera is 2 runs below average.
AL 2B: Robinson Cano
This one is pretty much a no-brainer. Leads all second basemen in traditional stats (.370 AVG, 12 HR, 45 RBI), has an OPS above 1, and is playing a pretty good second sack to boot. Not a hard decision to justify.
AL SS: Elvis Andrus
I couldn't vote for Derek Jeter. I just couldn't. The sole reason for that: I don't think he's having a better season than Andrus. Elvis gets on base more (.397 to .349), steals more (18 to 6), hits better (.311 to .299), and fields better (although neither fields particularly well: -1 to -6). Jeter hits more home runs (6 to 0) and has played for longer (15 full seasons to 1). In terms of WAR (wins above replacement - a complicated formula that figures how much better a particular player is than an average Triple-A hitter), they're basically equal: 1.2 for EA, 1.3 for DJ. I stand by my choice, if for no other reason than web gems.
AL 3B: Evan Longoria
Of all hot-cornerers, only Adrian Beltre has a better .AVG, but Longo beats the pants off everyone in terms of OPS. He's out-produced his closest competitor (10 HR, 46 RBI to A-Rod's 8 and 43), and he's out-ran the field by half (10 SB, Nick Punto has 5 and doesn't bring much of anything else to the table). He's got the total package, and he's got my vote.
AL C: Joe Mauer
I voted for Mauer mainly on the strength of his batting average and his MVP season last year. Not a strong foundation, I know. I thought Jorge Posada might have deserved a spot due to his power bat, but his availability is questionable due to injury (which has also limited his playing time), so I was torn. I also like Kurt Suzuki (despite his on-base inefficiencies) and Victor Martinez (despite his defensive inefficiencies). But despite all this deliberation, Mauer still has the highest WAR of the group (1.8). So sabermetrics backs me up.
AL DH: Vladimir Guerrero
Since the game's in an AL stadium, we get to vote on a starting DH! (But only for the AL team; this might change in future years, as the DH-in-the-All-Star-Game is expanding to all stadiums.) This is another no-contest: David Ortiz and Jose Guillen and Andruw Jones all brought their home run sticks this season, but their peripherals don't compare: he's the only full time DH candidate with a WAR over 1.0.
AL OF: Ichiro Suzuki, Nelson Cruz, Alex Rios
I like Ichiro's AVG/OBP/SB combo. Even though he's fielding below average, his presence on the basepaths makes him a force to be reckoned with.
Nelson Cruz also as questionable availability due to injury, but I just couldn't resist voting for that monstrous OPS (1.134!). He's also a perfectly average defender, so you don't lose anything there.
Alex Rios won't win a starting spot. He's not a big enough name. But look at that power/speed combo: 12 HR, 18 SB, while playing a perfectly average centerfield, which is a new position for him. Despite his lack or recognition, Rios actually has the highest WAR of all the outfielders I considered in WAR (2.2).
The only outfielder with a higher WAR is Seattle's Franklin Gutierrez (2.6), which is mostly because his defense (9 runs above average) is good enough to offset his anemic bat (.794 OPS)... and because he hasn't yet been caught on the basepaths (7-0 in steals).
Here are the others I considered: Jose Bautista, who somehow leads the majors with 18 HR. He doesn't get his bat on the ball nearly enough (.246 AVG), but he walks a ton (39), and his raw power has earned him a WAR of 2.0.
Vernon Wells, who has found some long-missed power (15 HR, 40 RBI). His defense is still a pretty sorry sight (-8), and his OBP is subpar.
On the other end of the spectrum, Carl Crawford is as good in the field as Wells is bad (8 runs above average). He's got very little power, but he makes up for a lot of that deficit with real good speed.
It's a weird crop of outfielders this year. But I suppose I stand by my choices. If Cruz's return doesn't look promising by the time I get around to voting again, I'll probably replace him with Bautista or Wells.
My picks for NL All-Stars later in the week.
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