Looking at the top three scoring players on this roster, it's easy to see why they were so successful last year: pitching, pitching, and more pitching. Jacob deGrom and Aaron Nola were both Cy Young Award finalists (with deGrom taking home the trophy), and Craig Kimbrel, fresh off his run closing games for the real life World Series Champion Red Sox, has a chance to break the record for the richest free agent contract ever given to a relief pitcher. The top batter on this team, third baseman Anthony Rendon, has quietly put up superstar-level numbers in four of the last five years, and does a nice job of anchoring this underwhelming offense. Jumping right back to the starting staff, Zack Wheeler has finally begun to deliver on the promise that he showed as a top prospect in the early part of this decade (first with the Giants, and later (and now) with the Mets), while Jose Berrios has taken a quicker and more straightforward path to MLB All-Stardom in Minnesota.
Cesar Hernandez fills two important roles on this team: starting second baseman, and possible leadoff hitter. The latter of those of course only matters in a simulation (rather than fantasy) setting, but it's an important aspect to keep in mind for our purposes. Yuli Gurriel brings some infield diversity to the table, but with Rendon on hand to play third, and in a generally weak year for first basemen, Gurriel is firmly entrenched at the less demanding side of the diamond. Rounding out the starting five, Mike Fiers padded his stats with a tremendous performance after being acquired by the Athletics in a Trade Deadline 2.0 deal, even though he was left off the roster for the Wild Card game (don't even get me started... *cough cough* Adam Dunn 2014 *cough cough*). It's rare to see an astrology team fill out its entire starting rotation in its top ten overall point scorers, but I wasn't kidding when I said pitching was a strength for Gemini. Conversely, it's not ideal to see a sign's top scoring outfielder clock in at #10 overall, but Corey Dickerson put up a decent season in his first year after being traded to Pittsburgh.
Yoan Moncada, GEM's #11 overall point scorer, is our first example of positional redundancy. But since I've given each team a DH slot - because it's unfair to penalize half the signs just because their associated color is similar to a National League team's uniform - the former #2 overall prospect still gets a place in the starting lineup. After Moncada, we see our first example of pitching depth in lefty Andrew Heaney, who was finally able to stay healthy over a full season. Next we have yet another second baseman, although Ben Zobrist's versatility means that he's actually the sign's #2 highest scoring outfield eligible player. When I build out these active rosters, I will likely set a limit of two bullpen slots that can be filled by starters, since I want to showcase pitchers of all roles, but going by the numbers, Gemini's two non-starting-starters would be lefties Heaney and Sean Newcomb.
This is less of an issue in simulated 25-player rosters (where teams need six or seven non-closer-relief-pitchers to fill out a bullpen) than in fantasy lineups (which typically include only two dedicated RP slots), but Brad Boxberger is technically this sign's #2 ranked reliever, thanks to his saves-inflated stats from the first half, before he lost his job as Diamondbacks closer. Conversely, Cubs reliever Pedro Strop had an opposite yearly trajectory as Boxberger, as he began the year as a middle reliever, but took over for an injured closer towards the end of the year... before subsequently getting injured while running the bases. Kendrys Morales's lack of a true position puts him at a disadvantage in terms of earning a roster spot, but if the team needs a pinch-hitting only option, his ability to switch-hit means he could compete with Justin Bour (who quite possibly could have outscored Gurriel at 1B had he not been traded to the Phillies and relegated to a bench role... and subsequently waived in the offseason). Unheralded rookie Dereck Rodriguez (son of Hall of Fame catcher Ivan) burst onto the scene when pressed into duty for an injury-ravaged Giants rotation, and unexpectedly became a building block for years to come. And despite his World Series heroics, Eduardo Nunez would be limited to a potential bench role on this astrology team.
While there's nothing too special about Harrison Bader's stats, the fact that he emerged as a viable center field option is huge for Gemini, who went without a single active qualifier there for much of 2017. Skipping over Steven Matz and Joey Lucchesi - yet more pieces of starting pitching depth - we have Gemini's starting catcher, Robinson Chirinos, who was curiously just cut loose by the Rangers after putting up a solid offensive performance. Collin McHugh successfully transitioned to the Astros bullpen last year, but might have to move back to the rotation in 2019 thanks to Lance McCullers Jr.'s Tommy John surgery (which will surely hurt the Libra team's chances next year). Blake Parker is fourth on Gemini's "spent-time-as-a-closer" depth chart, as he was the Angels' primary ninth inning specialist, while Chad Green had his second straight tremendous season out of the Yankees bullpen, despite not picking up any saves at all.
If you've been following along, you might have noticed that there is still a starting position player who doesn't fall into Gemini's top 30 point scorers. That honor goes to Brock Holt, whose 936 points (and 8.6 points per game) checks in at #33 overall. While he spent the majority of his 2018 games at second base, he picked up the requisite 20 games at shortstop (23, in fact) to qualify for the position. This gives the "Twins" a better option up the middle than the fading Jose Reyes or midseason release victim Eric Sogard. Other names to keep in mind: former lefty relief ace Justin Miller figures to land a large contract in free agency despite a weak 2018 season. Garrett Richards has great stuff and big upside, but he'll miss all of 2019 due to TJS. A pair of Brewers pitchers have promising outlooks for next year: Freddy Peralta as a still-developing youngster, and Jimmy Nelson who will hope to return from injury. And Bartolo Colon just completed his 21st year in the majors at the tender age of 45.
The Sagittarius Archers - here represented by the Chicago Cubs - have a ton of very talented players on their roster, but just can't seem to find a way to put things together in the fantasy realm. Perhaps things will be different in a season-long simulation environment.
We start things off with the near-unanimous NL MVP choice Christian Yelich, who would be fantasy first-overall-pickable, even if he didn't have center field eligibility. (SPOILER ALERT: He won't have to use it for our purposes here.) Following him closely in points is just-crowned AL Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell, who at times seemed like the only traditional starting pitcher in a highly unorthodox Rays pitching staff. NL MVP runner-up Javier Baez not only unlocked his full potential with the bat this past season, but he also helps the Cubs and his fantasy owners alike by playing solid defense at all the infield positions that matter. On the opposite end of the defensive spectrum, Khris Davis is limited to DH (the "/" in his POS 2 column indicates that he had more than 10, but fewer than the requisite 20 games to qualify in left field), but his bat more than justifies a spot in this lineup. Let's hope A's GM Billy Beane swallows his pride and tenders him a contract in arbitration... (*cough cough* sometimes you have to pay for dingers *cough*) Matt Carpenter had another typically strong offensive season while qualifying at both infield corners, but for reasons that will become clear in the next segment, he's better suited at his primary position of first base on this roster.
Mike Clevinger broke out this year with the stats to serve as most anyone's fantasy ace, but he's relegated to SP3 or 4 on a stacked Indians rotation. Kyle Hendricks has slipped a bit from his peak in 2016, but he's more than qualified to serve as the mid-rotation workhorse that this SAG team will need him to be. NL Rookie of the Year winner Ronald Acuna Jr. adds a strong personality to tremendous skills with the bat and the ability (if not the qualifications) to play center field. If you notice that I haven't listed either of the next two batters as starters (bold/underline text in the SIGN column), you might have a couple of questions. Such as: "Why don't you shift Matt Carpenter to third base to make room for Justin Smoak? Or if you insist on keeping Carpenter at first, why wouldn't Yohan Camargo serve as the starting third baseman?" The answer has to do with total points vs. average points per game, and it'll come in the next segment.
But first, the team's #11 overall scorer might raise another question: "Why isn't Yasiel Puig starting in right field with Christian Yelich making use of his vaunted center field eligibility?" This one is easier to answer when you look at the very next player on the list, as quite frankly, a healthy A.J. Pollock has a higher upside (not to mention less chance for on-field drama) than Puig, and better center field defense than Yelich. But the beauty part of a season-long simulation is that you can keep all three on the roster and use them as situations/matchups dictate. The defensive profile of 3rd place AL ROY finisher Gleyber Torres means that it doesn't technically matter how the two middle infield positions are divided between him and Javier Baez; but I would put Torres at second and Baez at short, just because that's where they played in the postseason. And NOW, at #14 in overall points, do we get the reason why I was so deadset on keeping Matt Carpenter at first base: not only is a healthy Justin Turner one of the most clutch postseason performers of all time, he's also a great team leader who excels in nearly every aspect of the game. He's so good, and given Camargo's versatility, that I'm not even going to consider putting Jeimer Candelario on the active roster.
The de facto ace of the Reds pitching staff, Luis Castillo (that's Luis M. Castillo, not to be confused with the former Marlins infielder Luis A. Castillo) is really more suited to the fourth starter role which he would fill here. And rounding out the rotation, Chase Anderson had a fine year with the Brewers, but was subsequently left off their playoff roster. The same is true for Ross Stripling with the other NLCS participant, although he pitched well enough as a starter and out of the bullpen for the Dodgers, that he could fill one of those two long relief spots I mentioned before. With this particular group of SAG relief pitchers, we might catch a glimpse into why this sign is a perennial fantasy bottom feeder. Adam Ottavino has some of the nastiest stuff in the league, but he hasn't been able to pad his stats with saves, instead serving as a setup reliever for Wade Davis (a Virgo). Ditto for Jose Leclerc's stuff, but he didn't take over closing duties for the Rangers until August, which he will presumably hold onto next year. Depending on where Ottavino signs, and in what role, this could be a sneaky good bullpen in 2019.
In somewhat of a resurgent season, James Shields pitched himself into consideration for an active roster bullpen slot. But moving right along, we see two more relievers that had bad luck/timing in terms of getting those ever important saves. Corey Knebel got hurt in April, then came back to basically an even three-way split of save opportunities for the Brewers; but it worked well enough for Milwaukee, so he should fit in well as the third-ranked relief pitcher on this roster. Seranthony Dominguez, despite the knightly-sounding name, didn't start consistently closing games for the Phillies until Hector Neris's ouster. Filling out the last spot in the bullpen is good old fashioned multi-inning weapon Yusmeiro Petit, adding a little diversity into this bullpen filled with part-time closers. Adam Eaton and Wil Myers are outfielders (well, one is currently masquerading as a third baseman) who are yet more examples of Sagittarians who have had troubles with injuries lately. But perhaps the roughest example of this theme in 2018 is Yankees catcher Gary Sanchez, who was out for nearly 60 games last season and never really got into a groove. If he bounces back from offseason shoulder surgery - and health permitting elsewhere - this could be a lineup without any holes whatsoever.
Looking into names beyond the top 30, middle reliever Ryan Pressly has significant fantasy point splits before and after his trade to the Astros, and I would likely consider him instead of Dominguez. Also Joe Musgrove outpaced James Shields in PPG (46.1), and would likely beat him in the battle for a roster spot, despite his consistency. Big Game James will remain stretched out in AAA, along with Carlos Rodon and Dan Straily. But the biggest SAG X-factor is former AL MVP Josh Donaldson, whose injury-marred 2018 likely won't prevent him from signing a huge contract (perhaps even a "megadeal"?) in free agency in the coming weeks/months. Luminary second baseman Chase Utley just retired, officially closing the books on what is presumably one of the top middle infield Sagittarius pairs in Phillies history (if not all time) with Jimmy Rollins. Even further down, extreme bounceback candidates include 2018 World Series champion Drew Pomeranz and former #1 overall prospect Byron Buxton.
No comments:
Post a Comment