Monday, November 19, 2018

Astrology 2018 Recap: Negative Mutable

In my last post recapping the 2018 fantasy astrology rosters, I covered the Positive Mutable division, which I've linked to the NL Central, mostly on the fact that the yellow uniforms worn by the Pirates share a color with the defending champion Gemini "Twins." This time we'll jump over to the other league and look at the Negative Mutable division, which for our purposes will be represented by the AL East. If it's confusing that the three astrological qualities (Cardinal, Fixed, Mutable) aren't consistent with MLB's three geographical divisions (East, Central, West) across the two leagues... you'll just have to deal with it. It was an aesthetic choice and I'm sticking to it. Ironically enough, the runner up to Gemini in this year's finals was the Negative/Mutable sign Virgo, whose main color is blue. I chose to represent this sign with the Red Sox because, while they do have a different color than blue in their name, it's important to remember that they do wear blue caps...


Perhaps the only mark against Jose Ramirez's tremendous 2018 campaign (at least from a fantasy perspective) is that he didn't quite get enough games at second base to qualify for the position, which would have helped alleviate a significant positional logjam. Jumping around a bit to the yellow-shaded players, it's interesting to note that the top three Virgo pitchers changed teams in the 2017-18 offseason. Gerrit Cole went from the Pirates to the Astros in a steal of a trade, Miles Mikolas was signed out of Japan by the Cardinals, and the Rockies gave Wade Davis a hefty contract in free agency. These three pitchers exceeded, wildly exceeded, and basically met expectations in 2018 (respectively). Third-starter David Price exorcised his postseason demons on the way to a World Series Championship, cementing his reputation as an ace pitcher who can in fact perform in the clutch.

Going back to the offensive side, we see that the first base and DH spots are filled immediately by Freddie Freeman and Paul Goldschmidt. While it's nice to have two of the top three scoring first basemen in the league, it does somewhat cut down on the team's overall versatility - as you can see, their next three eligible batters fall victim to positional redundancy. I'm almost glad that Ian Desmond barely didn't qualify for outfield eligibility, since now I don't have to justify passing over the higher point-scorer in favor of stronger options. Fantasy Mike Moustakas suffers the most from real world Cleveland's insistence on waiting until the last possible minute to move Ramirez to second base in 2018. And Max Muncy almost qualified for second base himself, which would have uncomplicated a lot of things as far as officially getting as much of the top 10 scorers in the lineup as possible.


Speaking of better outfield options than Desmond, the team's next three top scorers actually go around the horn in the grass. If we were going by 2018 end-of-season availability, Gregory Polanco would be ineligible due to various injuries he suffered that will keep him out into 2019. George Springer fell off quite a bit from his 2017 World Series MVP-winning year, but he's still a solid all around performer with great energy and leadership. Ditto Justin Upton, who mashed in a 2017 split between the Tigers and the Angels, but fell back to Earth spending the full year in Anaheim. Going by the numbers at shortstop, Marcus Semien has the edge on Andrelton Simmons in terms of full season points (although not in points per game average). But taking into consideration that "Simba" missed time with injuries, not to mention the fact that he's one of the most talented defenders on the planet, Simmons likely will have the edge in this simulation-based lineup. Although another injured shortstop in the next segment might make this a moot positional battle.

Sandwiched between those two shortstop options (or shortstoptions for short), is Noah Syndergaard, who has some of the most intimidating raw stuff in the game, but has had his own troubles with health. Joey Votto is not a name you'd expect to see FOURTH on any team's first base depth chart, but that's this strange and beautiful game we love. Jeremy Jeffress was part of that three-headed bullpen monster in Milwaukee that I mentioned last time (thanks to Sagittarius co-co-closer Corey Knebel). The Virgo infield can't catch a break, as not even Dodgers super utility player Chris Taylor qualified for second base - although he does fit the profile as possibly the perfect bench bat. Speaking of bench bats, veteran Brett Gardner has the speed and defense profile that could make for a solid fourth or even fifth outfielder.


You have to get all the way down to the SECOND Dodgers super utility threat Enrique "Kíke" Hernandez before we get someone who ESPN's fantasy baseball client will let us plug in at second base heading into the 2019 season. You could do worse than a 20 home run season from a middle infielder... but you could also have had Mike Moustakas or Max Muncy had the cards played out a little differently. Thankfully for the future of this project, I'm not going to follow such archaic limitations when I make these rosters on a video game. Before Virgo even fills out their pitching staff, we have a pretty solidified Triple-A infield, with Votto at first, Kíke at second, Semien at short, and Franco at third. That alignment considers that Moose will be the starting third baseman, Muncy will be on the 25-player roster as a bench bat, and Ian Desmond can start at AAA LF, since if he makes this team, it's not going to be as a first baseman. Then with Mitch Moreland to DH and Billy Hamilton in center field, all we're missing is one outfielder.

The pitcher that technically slots in at SP5 is Jose Urena, who will get a chance to spit water on a whole new redesigned Marlins jersey next season. However, the pitcher with the most upside is undeniably Carlos Martinez, who finished last year as St. Louis's closer, and could easily fill a long relief, if not a starting role with next year's Virgo squad. And just below him, we have the player who could have been a fantasy difference maker if healthy: Astros wunderkind Carlos Correa. Yeah, this pushes all my bench an minor league shortstoptions down one peg on the depth chart. Oh, also this team needs a catcher: it's between Nick Hundley and John Hicks, and since Hundley is the only primary catcher and Hicks ended the season on the DL60, it's pretty clear. Also, keep in mind that this pitching staff might have access to former Cardinals top prospect Alex Reyes next season when he returns from injury.


The other team in the Negative Mutable category is Pisces, which also has a blue color scheme. Since the Yankees are the older and far more storied franchise than the other blue team (the Jays of the same color), and since New York AL is the biggest rival of the Red Sox, they're the clear choice as the Pisces representative team. It's not ideal that two astrology signs are represented by teams that do not regularly put the names of their players on the backs of their jerseys, but that's what you get sometimes when you go for old and storied.


Like Gemini, Pisces has its greatest strength in its pitching staff. Cy Young Award finalist Justin Verlander turned it up to near superhuman levels last season (like seemingly every Astros pitcher not named Ken Giles, who is coincidentally a Virgo). Luis Severino has been at the unquestionable top of the real life Yankees rotation for two years now. And if you don't think two pitchers is all that intimidating, skip to the last name in the above chart for this segment. Rhys Hoskins is one instance where lack of eligibility at a LESS defensively challenging position will really hurt his sign later on, although his bat plays anywhere on the diamond. Nicholas Castellanos will play opposite Hoskins in the outfield grass, but he's the kind of guy you would love to move to DH in a simulation (as opposed to fantasy where the defense doesn't matter). Speaking of which, Rookie of the Year runner up Miguel Andujar also did all his damage with the bat... unless you're counting damage to his fielding percentage...

With Didi Gregorius, yet another real life Yankee, at shortstop, it's looking like my choice of team is making sense totally randomly. It's almost a shame that I'm implementing the DH for all astrology teams, because otherwise German Marquez would have had the ability to showcase his Silver Slugger winning talent. Tommy Pham jumped from the St. Louis Cardinals to the Tampa Bay Rays, but luckily he can't be traded away from the Pisces Fish. Because of the Rhys Hoskins-in-the-outfield experiment, the versatile Jurickson Profar actually best serves this roster by playing first base. And what else can be said about Clayton Kershaw except that he once again choked it up big time in the playoffs, but once again signed a well-deserved extension with the Dodgers.


It's not often that you see a SS/DH rotation between two players, but Jean Segura makes it possible. If you imagine the VERY SENSIBLE world in which Hoskins plays first and Profar mans second, Michael Conforto would make a very strong third outfielder. Aroldis Chapman is a force out of the bullpen regardless of his injuries last season. J.T. Realmuto is just the best catcher in the game, no big deal. And Kyle Schwarber might be the most powerful left handed late inning defensive replacement a club could hope for. The fact that two veterans, Rich Hill and Anibal Sanchez, would be competing for the fifth starter spot is astounding considering that one was ranked a full 600 points higher than the other heading into 2018. Regardless, the loser (or maybe even German Marquez) will still be on the active roster as a long reliever. The rest of this segment just has Triple-A candidates.


Bud Norris is documentedly not great for clubhouse chemistry (mostly due to his conflict with Virgo relief pitcher Jordan Hicks), but he's probably too good a pitcher not to have on the active roster. Similar to Virgo, the best option to officially qualify at second base is a super versatile utility piece, although Marwin Gonzalez is all but guaranteed to make the Pisces simulated bench. Fernando Rodney and Sergio Romo both spent time as their team's closer last year, but only Romo filled the "Opener" role. (NOTE: was he the first ever Opener, as defined by the 2018 Tampa Bay Rays?) Don't worry, there won't be any Openers in these astrology teams - you don't need one when someone with the talent and upside of Jake Arrieta is your potential SP7. Skipping to the end of this segment, I will say Francisco Cervelli is one heckuva backup catcher, a position that also has legacy option Brian McCann. If this team wants a lefty for its bullpen, it has to go all the way down to Blaine Hardy, the 41st highest scorer in the talent pool.

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