MLB Fantasy Ranks Changes and Trends v1

Last night the American motion picture industry gave out its most prestigious bunch of awards, with Mad Max: Fury Road impressed with its technical wizardry, Emmanuel "Chivo" Lubezki made history by winning the cinematography prize three years in a row for his work on The Revenant (director Alejandro G. Iñárritu won his branch's award in back to back years), legendary composer Ennio Morricone took home his first competitive Oscar for The Hateful Eight, and Spotlight won the biggest prize of them all. But something even more momentous also went down yesterday: a Major League baseball team suited up and took the field in competitive action for the first time in 2016!

True it was a pure exhibition matchup between the Philadelphia Phillies and the University of Tampa Spartans, but it symbolically signals the start of Spring Training and time for everyone to care about baseball again! To commemorate this joyous day, I plugged a new set of rankings into my baseball database and compared the results to the last time I did such a thing, which happened to be Valentine's Day. However, rather than revising my updated depth charts for all the teams, I decided to focus on which players had significant changes in their rankings, whether positive or negative, and examine some of the reasons behind these changes. Here are some of the notable changes, grouped by team/transaction.

Baltimore Orioles

A change of three ranks one way or another is never all that significant, but when it involves a new member of the overall top ten (such as when Manny Machado improved from 11 to 8), I feel like it's worth mentioning. The other positive change for Baltimore, Mark Trumbo's improvement of 19 ranks from 147 to 128, seems to be directly related to the O's failing to follow through on their reported free agent deal with Dexter Fowler. One of the trickle down effects of that non-transaction is that Trumbo is now in line to receive most of the playing time in right field as opposed to DH/backup 1B duties, much to the chagrin of Orioles pitchers. Speaking of Orioles pitchers, the actually-completed free agent deal with Yovani Gallardo means that folks who were once in line to compete for Baltimore's fifth starter spot (most notably Vance Worley, who dropped a staggering 84 spots in the rankings from 537 to 621, but also Odrisamer Despaigne and Mike Wright) are now ticketed to the bullpen or the minors.


Chicago Cubs

Speaking of Dexter Fowler, his surprise decision to re-sign with the Cubs had some natural implications on their outfield alignment. First, catcher-turned-outfielder Kyle Schwarber dropped 11 ranks (from 49 to a still very respectable 60), which probably represents the shorter leash the youngster will be on with Jason Heyward now occupying the other corner outfield spot in Chicago. But the real impacts of this move are on Jorge Soler, who suffered a full 237-rank dropoff (from 188 to 425) when he was effectively demoted from projected starting right fielder to fourth outfielder/minor league depth, and Javier Baez (a 159-rank drop, from 483 to 634), who had been slated as a super utility type until Fowler returned to the fold. I don't know if this promising kid is ever gonna get a chance to play...


Oakland Athletics

Speaking of super utility types, the Fowler signing also made Chris Coghlan somewhat superfluous in Chicago, so the Cubs dealt him to the Athletics, where he'll back up all three outfield spots and also probably see some time at second and third base. Strangely enough, while this move would likely grant him more playing time, Coghlan's rank dropped by 61 places (from 471 to 532) upon being traded. Maybe this change reflects the less friendly offensive environment in Oakland, but that doesn't explain why Khris Davis went UP 73 ranks (from 277 to 204) after his trade to the A's. What does make sense is that infield and outfield depth pieces Eric Sogard, Sam Fuld, and Jake Smolinski all took rankings tumbles due to those two moves.


Tampa Bay Rays

Another move that had far reaching rankings implications was the trade of DH/LF/1B Corey Dickerson from the Rockies to the Rays for RP Jake McGee. The centerpiece of that deal for Tampa Bay himself dropped 22 spots (from 114 to 136), which pretty accurately reflects what happens when a slugger leaves Coors Field. This move directly led to the loss of 133 ranking spots between James Loney (395 to 454, loss of 59) and Logan Morrison (401 to 475, loss of 74), the two 1B/DH candidates who Dickerson effectively replaced. The only player to benefit from the trade was right fielder Steven Souza who jumped 87 ranks (from 413 to 326), reinforcing the value of right-handed power - the three other players affected in this transaction all swing from the left side.


Texas Rangers

Josh Hamilton's injury that will cause him to start the year on the disabled list - and which caused him to drop 138 spots in the rankings, from 421 to 559 - has sent ripples through the entire remaining free agent class. However, the above rankings were captured one day before the Rangers made the unorthodox decision to sign shortstop Ian Desmond and move him left field. Prior to the signing, his rankings understandably took a tumble due to his increased time on the open market (he fell 31 spots from 96 to 127), but then curiously CONTINUED to drop (another 14 spots to 141) even after the transaction was announced. Texas's in-house candidates Joey Gallo and Ryan Rua had brief jumps in the rankings before Desmond's signing, but if you check back today, you'll see that they've since dropped back to their Valentine's Day levels.


Chicago White Sox

When Chicago signed Jimmy Rollins to a minor league deal, which effectively amounted to a handshake agreement that the starting shortstop job is his to lose, he saw his stock increase a modest 22 ranks (from 322 to 290). This transaction caused a precipitous drop in the stock of Tyler Saladino (159 spots, from 369 to 528), as he essentially became a utility infielder, and Carlos Sanchez (42 spots, from the already pretty irrelevant 703 to the nail-in-the-coffin-of-his-playing-time 745), as he is now essentially minor league depth. Of note: new third baseman Todd Frazier dropped 9 spots (from 59 to 68), which would normally not be significant, but no one else in that rank range had negative movement.


Cleveland Indians

Similarly, when Cleveland announced the signing of veteran infielder Juan Uribe (who jumped 120 spots, from 561 to 441), incumbent starter Giovanny Urshela dropped 145 spots (485 to 630) when he was relegated to a utility role. Strangely enough, potential platoon partner Jose Ramirez IMPROVED by 53 spots (from 558 to 505) upon Uribe's signing, even though he would presumably have the played the same role with Urshela. Abraham Almonte's 80 game suspension obviously caused him to lose ground (to the tune of 187 spots, dropping all the way from 500 to 687), but curiously Will Venable, the guy they brought in to replace him, dropped 39 spots upon signing his a minor league deal with the club (from 492 to 531). On a seemingly unrelated note, apparently Michael Brantley's injury got less severe, as he was upgraded 106 spots from just outside the top 300 (303) to just inside the top 200 (197).


Colorado Rockies

Speaking of suspensions, Jose Reyes dropped 154 spots (from 171 to 325) when the Rockies placed him on administrative leave due to his pending trial. Top prospect Trevor Story jumped 122 spots (from 607 to 485) with the expectation that he'll be fast tracked to the majors in the meantime.


And lastly, a handful of positional battles:

- Trea Turner (up 42 spots from 439 to 397) has apparently edged out Danny Espinosa (dropped 31 spots from 415 to 446) in the battle for the Nationals starting shortstop gig.

- While A.J. Ramos (down 29 spots, from 179 to 208) still has the inside track on the Marlins closer role, hard throwing Carter Capps (up 44 spots from 269 to 225) is on an upward trajectory.

- In the Angels rotation, Hector Santiago is trending up (up 42 spots, from 354 to 312) and Matt Shoemaker is trending down (down 51 spots, from 323 to 374).

- Veteran A.J. Pierzynski (down 20 spots, from 447 to 467) is still ranked ahead of Tyler Flowers (up 15 spots, from 554 to 539) on the Braves depth chart at catcher, but it is interesting to note the trends.


Spring Training games start up in earnest tomorrow, so these rankings are sure to fluctuate depending on how players perform in Arizona and Florida. Keep watching the diamonds!

MLB Fantasy Ranks Analysis 2016

Baseball is a team sport, but in order for a team to be successful, it must be comprised of several successful players. Preseason fantasy rankings are a good tool for determining how successful any given player will be in the upcoming season. None of this is new information -- the new information is contained in the 2016 preseason fantasy rankings first posted on MLB.com last week! Now, when you compulsively keep a database of each team's 40 man roster like I do, it's easy to plug these rankings into it and project a pretty decent starting lineup/roster. This was how I spent my Valentine's Day in 2016...

Rather than analyze any one team in depth (for now) I looked at how the rankings were distributed across positional lines, as I did at this time in the offseason last year. I took each team 19 players deep, which sounds like a random number, until you realize it's one of each position player, five starters, three relievers, and three of either a) one DH and two bench players, or b) three bench players. I've determined a purely numerical list of power rankings based on the aggregate ranks of those 19 players, and then made a huge color tapestry style spreadsheet out of the raw data, and posted all of it below:

Click on the image to expand. I recommend opening it in a new window for a side-by-side experience!

Wow, that's a lot of numbers. Good thing I'm here to explain them all, huh? First of all, for the abridged version of the chart, direct your eyes to the three columns on the left. These show all 30 teams (each one crudely color-coded, no less), arranged from best to worst, by the sum total of the fantasy rankings of their projected top 19 contributors. If you follow one team's column all the way across, you'll see the rank for each of that team's projected top contributors at each position.  Now while it might seem inhumane to reduce a living breathing baseball player to a number, think of how big this chart would have been if I used names (not too mention how much harder to sort it would be). I've also included a column for each team's rotation and bullpen -- these columns were of course left out of the total aggregate rank for each team.

As for the color-coding within the positional boxes, it's pretty self-explanatory: green is the top-ranked player at each position and red is the bottom-ranked one. Some of the outfield rankings might not totally reflect the actual rosters, because I treated the two corner outfield spots as interchangeable, but we're really measuring player quality rather than realistic accuracy. I added two extra colors in the DH column as well, to separate between the 15 AL teams that must field a DH position (using the traditional green and red system) from the 15 NL teams for which this column represents essentially another bench spot (muted green and orange). The magenta highlighted spots represent ranks of players that are not currently on a team's 40-man roster (i.e. non-roster invitees or minor league depth).

If you want to see which players correspond to which positions, you can use MLB's 2016 fantasy player preview, but I'll provide some highlights below.

Starting Pitcher (BEST)
1. Clayton Kershaw, LAD (5)
2. Jacob deGrom, NYM (38)
3. Noah Syndergaard, NYM (54)
4. Steven Matz, NYM (137)
5. Jason Hammel, CHC (183)

Kershaw is once again the only pitcher ranked in the top 10 (he also held down number 5 last year), despite losing out on the Cy Young award to Jake Arrieta (the next-highest ranked pitcher at 16; followed by Max Scherzer at 17). The next three spots in the rotation are all filled by members of the New York Mets: deGrom, Syndergaard, and Matz played significant roles in helping the New York NL get to the World Series next year, and they're all young enough to show some improvement, which is a scary thought. On a side note, Mets ace Matt Harvey ranks fifth behind the above-mentioned three aces, plus Chris Sale, and Madison Bumgarner. Jason Hammel of the Cubs is the only fifth starter ranked in the top 200 players, so it's no surprise that Chicago's depth makes them the best overall staff.

Starting Pitcher (WORST)
26. Jon Gray, COL (356)
27. Matt Wisler, ATL (466)
28. Bud Norris, ATL (514)
29. Jordan Lyles, COL (588)
30. David Hale, COL (683)

The Rockies and the Braves are locked into a competition for the game's worst starting pitching, with all five of the bottom ranked starters coming from one of these two clubs. Interestingly enough, Colorado got the reverse-honors on the last two rotation slots, even though Atlanta's projected 4th and 5th starters aren't even on their 40-man roster -- they project as newly-acquired rookie Aaron Blair and former Rockies starter Jhoulys Chacin, both invited to big league Spring Training camp this year.

Relief Pitcher (BEST)
1. Wade Davis, KCR (55)
2. Dellin Betances, NYY (201)
3. Andrew Miller, NYY (254)

It's a little scary (for opposing hitters, that is) to project what Wade Davis might do with a full season as closer now that incumbent Greg Holland has been non-tendered by Kansas City following Tommy John surgery. He narrowly beats out twice-traded Craig Kimbrel (60, acquired by the Red Sox) and once-traded Aroldis Chapman (71, acquired by the Yankees) for the top spot. Speaking of theYankees, the addition of Chapman pushes their 2015 pair of closers, Miller and Betances, into setup roles, giving them easily the top-ranked bullpen in the game (no team was within 300 ranks of them -- Baltimore was next with 841).

Relief Pitcher (WORST)
28. Fernando Rodney, SDP (359)
29. Bronson Arroyo, WAS NRI (527)
30. N/A, WAS (UNRANKED)

I don't know if the Padres are officially tanking 2016, but after trading away Craig Kimbrel (60) and Joaquin Benoit (309), the best option they could come up with to close games was veteran castoff Fernando Rodney. Maybe spacious Petco Park will help, but he didn't do too hot in his last years in spacious Safeco Field. Let's just say that Kevin Quackenbush (367) will be waiting eagerly in the wings all year. I firmly believe that the only reason that the Nationals are so far down this list is due to oversight: after the five starters and closer Jonathan Papelbon (132), the only other pitcher in the Washington organization to receive a rank by MLB is non-roster invitee Bronson Arroyo. MLB has ranked 820 players, so when calculating the aggregate rankings, I added 821 to Washington's total. However if I were compiling these rankings, I would have ranked newcomers Yusmeiro Petit (ranked 302 in 2015) and Shawn Kelley (529 in 2015) significantly higher than UNRANKED...

Catcher
1. Buster Posey, SFG (29)
30. Hank Conger, TBR (534)

Posey has been leading the way for catchers for years now, and if he continues to stay fresh with regular at-bats at first base, there's no reason to believe that the 28-year-old's production will slow down. // The Rays went out and picked up the switch-hitting Conger, and while he's an improvement over incumbent Rene Rivera, he won't be putting on any batting practice shows in Tampa Bay (or maybe Tampa Bay / Montreal? Have you heard about this plan?)

First Base
1. Paul Goldschmidt, ARI (3)
30. John Jaso, PIT (520)

No surprise at the top here, as Goldschmidt took over the top spot from Miguel Cabrera (15) last year, and never looked back. // John Jaso has played all of two games (and just five innings) at first base in his career, and yet Pittsburgh is planning on using him as the left-handed side of a platoon at that position this year. Maybe we'll see more starts by defensive minded Sean Rodriguez that only last until he's scheduled to come to the plate...

Second Base
1. Jose Altuve, HOU (10)
30. Johnny Giavotella, LAA (486)

When you hit atop a lineup that had an unexpected run to the playoffs, you're bound to attract some attention, despite your size, and the 5'6" Altuve is ready to go for his third straight Silver Slugger award at the keystone. // The Angels didn't bring back former homegrown star Howie Kendrick (145) because owner Arte Moreno was squeamish about keeping his payroll under the luxury tax threshold.

Third Base
1. Josh Donaldson, TOR (4)
30. Giovanny Urshela, CLE (485)

Donaldson won a well-deserved AL MVP award last season, leading his new team to another unexpected run to the playoffs. He and the Jays avoided another arbitration hearing this offseason (with the extension also covering the 2017 season), but I doubt if he'll take any discounts to remain in Toronto when he hits free agency after 2018. // Urshela won't be as big a bust in Cleveland as his fantasy rank suggests because he is a gifted defender, but there's a reason that free agents like David Freese (374) should maybe be on the Indians' radar.

Shortstop
1. Carlos Correa, HOU (6)
30. Jordy Mercer, PIT (457)

The top-ten ranking of incumbent AL Rookie of the Year Carlos Correa gives Houston the best-ranked middle infield in the sport, and it's not particularly close. Cleveland is the only other team with both middle infielders ranked in the top 100 -- Jason Kipins is 88, while Francisco Lindor is 63. // Pittsburgh finds itself on this list after the trade of Neil Walker (175) to the Mets pushed Josh Harrison (219) to second base, which required Jung Ho Kang (294) to play third rather than shortstop. Hey, everyone knows that Ian Desmond (96) is still available, but fellow free agent Jimmy Rollins (322) might also provide a decent stopgap solution.

Center Field
1. Mike Trout, LAA (2)
30. Jon Jay, SDP (408)

Trout has occupied the top spot in these rankings for the past two years, and while he was knocked off the throne by the leader in the next category, he's still one heck of a ballplayer. Now if only the Angels were willing to spend some money to build a good roster around him. // Did I mention that San Diego might be going down the tanking route? They actually traded FOR Jon Jay this offseason...

Corner Outfield 1
1. Bryce Harper, WAS (1)
30. Aaron Altherr, PHI (384)

This is the year of Bryce Harper, as he earns the top spot in these rankings for the first time after taking home the NL MVP award in 2016. He has three years left before hitting the open market, where he will look to pull down a contract in the neighborhood of $500 million. // If there is a fine line between tanking and rebuilding, the Phillies might have found it. They've got some exciting young talent making their way to the majors this year, but they still promise to perform pretty poorly on the field.

Corner Outfield 2
1. Justin Upton, DET (34)
30. Kirk Nieuwenhuis, MIL (597)

Upton narrowly lost this spot to his future 2016 corner outfield mate J.D. Martinez (33), illustrating how one signing can dramatically boost a team's outfield. (Upton is the only new acquisition on this best-of list, hence his picture in a Padres cap.) It remains to be seen whether Detroit will be able to get enough punch out of an aging, expensive lineup to support an expensive, uneven pitching staff to contend with young guns Kansas City and Cleveland. // The Brewers clearly didn't have a plan for who will replace the recently-traded Khris Davis (277) in the outfield, but as the Milwaukee's fire sale continues, these issues become less and less important.

Designated Hitter
1. Edwin Encarnacion, TOR (22)
15. Mike Napoli, CLE (425)

Encarnacion does have eligibility at first base going into the season, and if he were to occupy that spot in Toronto's lineup, then the top DH honors would go to Boston's David Ortiz (70) in his final season. However it looks like Encarnacion does not have a path to lots of playing time in the field this year with Chris Colabello (343) and Justin Smoak (502) forming a platoon at first base for the Blue Jays. // Conversely, Napoli will probably take most of his at-bats at first bast in Cleveland, pushing Carlos Santana (200) to full-time DH duties. If my chart reflected reality in this way, than Adam LaRoche (390) of the White Sox would rank as the worst DH in the AL. \\ Looking at the NL side of the equation, Carl Crawford (382) is the top ranked NL bench player, as he and Andre Ethier (365) will likely split much of the playing time in left field for the Dodgers, barring a trade to the White Sox.

The Colorless Mana of Zendikar

I generally don’t like it when blog posts are self-referential about how infrequently they appear on any given blog. That being said, I haven’t been posting a lot recently because I’ve been involved in an in-depth, very time-consuming project - i.e. editing together a playthrough/let’s play/episodic watching someone play a video game experience starring Batman: Arkham Knight. My version of the game’s story runs 15 episodes, each under 30 minutes (except the premiere and the finale, which are both under 32.5 minutes), which equals just under 7 hours of footage. I just finished rough cuts of all 15, which means all the content is cut, complete with music (most of it custom-picked), but I have yet to record voice-over commentary, which will explain both my gameplay and creative choices in real time. 

At this point, I have essentially edited a short season’s worth of content for a television show - i.e. a show that you could watch on your television set, (via streaming or otherwise) rather than in a movie theater. And I did this all on spec - i.e. for free - using content owned completely by Warner Bros., DC Comics, and Rocksteady Games (but with gameplay and creative decisions owned by me). The whole project is essentially meant as a gift, a gift to all those on the Internet who enjoy stories that happen in video games and stories about Batman. I readily admit that I am a member of both camps, so this project is a gift to myself, first and foremost, a gift that I will gladly accept, just as soon as I’ve wrapped it up in a neat little package.

But now that I’ve hit this milestone, I’m taking some time for another gift to myself: musings about another of my in-depth, time consuming hobbies, Magic: The Gathering. The good folks at Wizards of the Coast (don’t even get me started on their OTHER in-depth, time-consuming game, Dungeons and Dragons) have just changed the format of how Magic products are released. And the latest set to come out is Oath of the Gatewatch, the second set in the Battle for Zendikar block, which is the first block under the new system to feature only two sets instead of three. Didja get all that? BFZ-OGW is only two sets, but those two sets constitute an entire block.

In honor of this format-breaking event, Oath of the Gatewatch includes a format-breaking new mechanic - i.e. they’ve added a sixth basic land type* to go along with the traditional WUBRG (White, blUe, Black, Red, Green) structure. This type is called Wastes and produces only colorless mana. It is one of the more on-flavor mechanics, as these lands represent the Plane of Zendikar’s destruction and subversion by the mysterious and terrifying Eldrazi. These Eldrazi are represented by cards that REQUIRE colorless mana, another Magic first. Think more mindless than the effects of a Phyrexian invasion, but more personal than an Ob Nixilis-esque planar destruction.

* Wastes function as basic lands in some ways - i.e. you can feature multiples in Commander/Singleton decks and you can search for them with cards like Evolving Wilds. However, they differ in that you can’t add them to your deck for free in Limited formats - i.e. you have to draft them out of packs just like you would any other spell or nonbasic land.

But looking back at historical Zendikar sets, the Wastes land type is not the plane’s first encounter with creating colorless mana. The first set in the original Zendikar block had no cards that produced colorless mana, lands or otherwise. The second and middle set Worldwake, back when blocks used to have THREE sets each, had only four such cards: lands Dread Statuary (a land that can become an Golem artifact creature), Quicksand, and Tectonic Edge (both representing volatile geographic features), and the artifact Everflowing Chalice (which is just good solid ramping).

But with the third set Rise of the Eldrazi, we see a whopping 18 cards that can create colorless mana, but in a new and unique way. With the exception of one land (the fittingly named Eldrazi Temple) and one artifact (the also on-flavor Dreamstone Hedron), the mana from these cards comes from 0/1 Eldrazi Spawn tokens, that can be sacrificed to add 1 colorless mana (or {C} as it’s now known) to your mana pool. These 16 cards, which are confined to the colors Black, Green, and Red, exist solely for ramping purposes, rather than to fill a need for colorless mana.

The same can be said about the significantly more powerful 1/1 Eldrazi Scion tokens produced by 16 cards (coincidence?) from Battle for Zendikar - about the ramping, that is, not about the colors, because in BFZ Blue replaces Red in the token producing color identity. From a flavor perspective, I see this change as follows: when enough colorless mana was created by Eldrazi Spawn, these lesser tokens mutated or evolved into the far superior Scions. This change would have happened in the downtime between ROE and BFZ.

Following this ilne of thought to its logical conclusion, when enough colorless mana is created from the Scions, it starts affecting the very lands themselves, transforming them into Wastes. This problem has become so pervasive in the time between BFZ and OGW that we need both a new basic land and a new mana symbol to represent it. It’s a great way to use mechanics to tell a story, to which the MTG crew has really been paying special attention since the Khans of Tarkir block. Your efforts have not been unnoticed!

I don’t know what this ultimately means for the Plane of Zendikar, except I do know that the decks based on that plane will continue to have significantly more color-producing basic lands in them than not. And that is an encouraging thought.