Rather than analyze any one team in depth (for now) I looked at how the rankings were distributed across positional lines, as I did at this time in the offseason last year. I took each team 19 players deep, which sounds like a random number, until you realize it's one of each position player, five starters, three relievers, and three of either a) one DH and two bench players, or b) three bench players. I've determined a purely numerical list of power rankings based on the aggregate ranks of those 19 players, and then made a huge color tapestry style spreadsheet out of the raw data, and posted all of it below:
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| Click on the image to expand. I recommend opening it in a new window for a side-by-side experience! |
Wow, that's a lot of numbers. Good thing I'm here to explain them all, huh? First of all, for the abridged version of the chart, direct your eyes to the three columns on the left. These show all 30 teams (each one crudely color-coded, no less), arranged from best to worst, by the sum total of the fantasy rankings of their projected top 19 contributors. If you follow one team's column all the way across, you'll see the rank for each of that team's projected top contributors at each position. Now while it might seem inhumane to reduce a living breathing baseball player to a number, think of how big this chart would have been if I used names (not too mention how much harder to sort it would be). I've also included a column for each team's rotation and bullpen -- these columns were of course left out of the total aggregate rank for each team.
As for the color-coding within the positional boxes, it's pretty self-explanatory: green is the top-ranked player at each position and red is the bottom-ranked one. Some of the outfield rankings might not totally reflect the actual rosters, because I treated the two corner outfield spots as interchangeable, but we're really measuring player quality rather than realistic accuracy. I added two extra colors in the DH column as well, to separate between the 15 AL teams that must field a DH position (using the traditional green and red system) from the 15 NL teams for which this column represents essentially another bench spot (muted green and orange). The magenta highlighted spots represent ranks of players that are not currently on a team's 40-man roster (i.e. non-roster invitees or minor league depth).
If you want to see which players correspond to which positions, you can use MLB's 2016 fantasy player preview, but I'll provide some highlights below.
Starting Pitcher (BEST)1. Clayton Kershaw, LAD (5)
2. Jacob deGrom, NYM (38)
3. Noah Syndergaard, NYM (54)
4. Steven Matz, NYM (137)
5. Jason Hammel, CHC (183)
Kershaw is once again the only pitcher ranked in the top 10 (he also held down number 5 last year), despite losing out on the Cy Young award to Jake Arrieta (the next-highest ranked pitcher at 16; followed by Max Scherzer at 17). The next three spots in the rotation are all filled by members of the New York Mets: deGrom, Syndergaard, and Matz played significant roles in helping the New York NL get to the World Series next year, and they're all young enough to show some improvement, which is a scary thought. On a side note, Mets ace Matt Harvey ranks fifth behind the above-mentioned three aces, plus Chris Sale, and Madison Bumgarner. Jason Hammel of the Cubs is the only fifth starter ranked in the top 200 players, so it's no surprise that Chicago's depth makes them the best overall staff.
Starting Pitcher (WORST)
26. Jon Gray, COL (356)
27. Matt Wisler, ATL (466)
28. Bud Norris, ATL (514)
29. Jordan Lyles, COL (588)
30. David Hale, COL (683)
The Rockies and the Braves are locked into a competition for the game's worst starting pitching, with all five of the bottom ranked starters coming from one of these two clubs. Interestingly enough, Colorado got the reverse-honors on the last two rotation slots, even though Atlanta's projected 4th and 5th starters aren't even on their 40-man roster -- they project as newly-acquired rookie Aaron Blair and former Rockies starter Jhoulys Chacin, both invited to big league Spring Training camp this year.
Relief Pitcher (BEST)1. Wade Davis, KCR (55)
2. Dellin Betances, NYY (201)
3. Andrew Miller, NYY (254)
It's a little scary (for opposing hitters, that is) to project what Wade Davis might do with a full season as closer now that incumbent Greg Holland has been non-tendered by Kansas City following Tommy John surgery. He narrowly beats out twice-traded Craig Kimbrel (60, acquired by the Red Sox) and once-traded Aroldis Chapman (71, acquired by the Yankees) for the top spot. Speaking of theYankees, the addition of Chapman pushes their 2015 pair of closers, Miller and Betances, into setup roles, giving them easily the top-ranked bullpen in the game (no team was within 300 ranks of them -- Baltimore was next with 841).
Relief Pitcher (WORST)
28. Fernando Rodney, SDP (359)
29. Bronson Arroyo, WAS NRI (527)
30. N/A, WAS (UNRANKED)
I don't know if the Padres are officially tanking 2016, but after trading away Craig Kimbrel (60) and Joaquin Benoit (309), the best option they could come up with to close games was veteran castoff Fernando Rodney. Maybe spacious Petco Park will help, but he didn't do too hot in his last years in spacious Safeco Field. Let's just say that Kevin Quackenbush (367) will be waiting eagerly in the wings all year. I firmly believe that the only reason that the Nationals are so far down this list is due to oversight: after the five starters and closer Jonathan Papelbon (132), the only other pitcher in the Washington organization to receive a rank by MLB is non-roster invitee Bronson Arroyo. MLB has ranked 820 players, so when calculating the aggregate rankings, I added 821 to Washington's total. However if I were compiling these rankings, I would have ranked newcomers Yusmeiro Petit (ranked 302 in 2015) and Shawn Kelley (529 in 2015) significantly higher than UNRANKED...
Catcher1. Buster Posey, SFG (29)
30. Hank Conger, TBR (534)
Posey has been leading the way for catchers for years now, and if he continues to stay fresh with regular at-bats at first base, there's no reason to believe that the 28-year-old's production will slow down. // The Rays went out and picked up the switch-hitting Conger, and while he's an improvement over incumbent Rene Rivera, he won't be putting on any batting practice shows in Tampa Bay (or maybe Tampa Bay / Montreal? Have you heard about this plan?)
First Base1. Paul Goldschmidt, ARI (3)
30. John Jaso, PIT (520)
No surprise at the top here, as Goldschmidt took over the top spot from Miguel Cabrera (15) last year, and never looked back. // John Jaso has played all of two games (and just five innings) at first base in his career, and yet Pittsburgh is planning on using him as the left-handed side of a platoon at that position this year. Maybe we'll see more starts by defensive minded Sean Rodriguez that only last until he's scheduled to come to the plate...
1. Jose Altuve, HOU (10)
30. Johnny Giavotella, LAA (486)
When you hit atop a lineup that had an unexpected run to the playoffs, you're bound to attract some attention, despite your size, and the 5'6" Altuve is ready to go for his third straight Silver Slugger award at the keystone. // The Angels didn't bring back former homegrown star Howie Kendrick (145) because owner Arte Moreno was squeamish about keeping his payroll under the luxury tax threshold.
1. Josh Donaldson, TOR (4)
30. Giovanny Urshela, CLE (485)
Donaldson won a well-deserved AL MVP award last season, leading his new team to another unexpected run to the playoffs. He and the Jays avoided another arbitration hearing this offseason (with the extension also covering the 2017 season), but I doubt if he'll take any discounts to remain in Toronto when he hits free agency after 2018. // Urshela won't be as big a bust in Cleveland as his fantasy rank suggests because he is a gifted defender, but there's a reason that free agents like David Freese (374) should maybe be on the Indians' radar.
1. Carlos Correa, HOU (6)
30. Jordy Mercer, PIT (457)
The top-ten ranking of incumbent AL Rookie of the Year Carlos Correa gives Houston the best-ranked middle infield in the sport, and it's not particularly close. Cleveland is the only other team with both middle infielders ranked in the top 100 -- Jason Kipins is 88, while Francisco Lindor is 63. // Pittsburgh finds itself on this list after the trade of Neil Walker (175) to the Mets pushed Josh Harrison (219) to second base, which required Jung Ho Kang (294) to play third rather than shortstop. Hey, everyone knows that Ian Desmond (96) is still available, but fellow free agent Jimmy Rollins (322) might also provide a decent stopgap solution.
1. Mike Trout, LAA (2)
30. Jon Jay, SDP (408)
Trout has occupied the top spot in these rankings for the past two years, and while he was knocked off the throne by the leader in the next category, he's still one heck of a ballplayer. Now if only the Angels were willing to spend some money to build a good roster around him. // Did I mention that San Diego might be going down the tanking route? They actually traded FOR Jon Jay this offseason...
1. Bryce Harper, WAS (1)
30. Aaron Altherr, PHI (384)
This is the year of Bryce Harper, as he earns the top spot in these rankings for the first time after taking home the NL MVP award in 2016. He has three years left before hitting the open market, where he will look to pull down a contract in the neighborhood of $500 million. // If there is a fine line between tanking and rebuilding, the Phillies might have found it. They've got some exciting young talent making their way to the majors this year, but they still promise to perform pretty poorly on the field.
1. Justin Upton, DET (34)
30. Kirk Nieuwenhuis, MIL (597)
Upton narrowly lost this spot to his future 2016 corner outfield mate J.D. Martinez (33), illustrating how one signing can dramatically boost a team's outfield. (Upton is the only new acquisition on this best-of list, hence his picture in a Padres cap.) It remains to be seen whether Detroit will be able to get enough punch out of an aging, expensive lineup to support an expensive, uneven pitching staff to contend with young guns Kansas City and Cleveland. // The Brewers clearly didn't have a plan for who will replace the recently-traded Khris Davis (277) in the outfield, but as the Milwaukee's fire sale continues, these issues become less and less important.
1. Edwin Encarnacion, TOR (22)
15. Mike Napoli, CLE (425)
Encarnacion does have eligibility at first base going into the season, and if he were to occupy that spot in Toronto's lineup, then the top DH honors would go to Boston's David Ortiz (70) in his final season. However it looks like Encarnacion does not have a path to lots of playing time in the field this year with Chris Colabello (343) and Justin Smoak (502) forming a platoon at first base for the Blue Jays. // Conversely, Napoli will probably take most of his at-bats at first bast in Cleveland, pushing Carlos Santana (200) to full-time DH duties. If my chart reflected reality in this way, than Adam LaRoche (390) of the White Sox would rank as the worst DH in the AL. \\ Looking at the NL side of the equation, Carl Crawford (382) is the top ranked NL bench player, as he and Andre Ethier (365) will likely split much of the playing time in left field for the Dodgers, barring a trade to the White Sox.
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