Don't get me wrong, I still keep up to date on MLB's prospect watch and dutifully enter the rankings in my 40-Man Roster Excel spreadsheets. But they don't provide nearly as much insight about what might actually happen in 2015 as the fantasy player rankings. I like using MLB.com's rating system not because I've done any extensive research to show that they're the most accurate, but I know they're kept up to date through Opening Day, they're easily sortable, and they come with nice visuals. I spent the last couple of days updating my above-mentioned document with all 830 players ranked by MLB.com, just in time for the first pitchers and catchers to report to Spring Training. It's at this point in the baseball season that I like to first take stock of how every team is doing - hence all the document updating. Using this document, I plotted out each team's projected starting lineup and rotation, based on MLB's fantasy rankings, with an eye towards determining both the raw talent level of each team and also the average strength of each position.
Basically, for each team, I took the top five ranked starting pitchers, the top two ranked relief pitchers, and the highest ranked player from each position and added their ranks together. I then divided that total by the number of players on the team to get a per player average. I used this number to sort the table at left, which also mitigates the unfair advantage that NL teams receive due to the lack of the DH spot in their lineups. As you can see, both the total and the average measurements identify the Washington Nationals as the best team in baseball - not surprising given their three aces on the pitching staff and above average position players across the board. St. Louis is the only other team with an average player rank of less than 200, a level of excellence we should be used to from an organization that has won four straight division titles (and five of the last six). With the type of payroll the Dodgers have, it would be sad if they weren't among the top five teams, and Toronto has made enough high profile moves to look super impressive on paper. But I was really surprised by the presence of the Cleveland Indians, a team that finished above .500 last year but missed out on a wild card spot by four games. Maybe it wasn't such a stretch when David Schoenfield ranked the Tribe fourth in his offseason power rankings last week.In addition to finding out average player rankings by team, the work I did also allows me to arrange the rankings by position. This amounts to a slightly more targeted version of a project I did last year, where I simply took the top 30 players in each position rather than fleshing out actual projected lineups. And because it's more targeted, perhaps the following analysis will say more about the status of each team's regular players. But first, let's take a look at just the average ranking broken down by position, in both list and graph form!
Starting Pitcher 1
Average: 105.6 (Alex Wood)
Median: 77 (Tyson Ross)
Range: 5 (Clayton Kershaw) - 429 (Jorge De La Rosa)
I put example players next to each rank for reference purposes. So even though Alex Wood is technically Atlanta's #2 SP, he still exemplifies the skill level of the average staff ace. Julio Teheran, also of the Braves, comes in right below this position's median (65), so the moral of the story is that Atlanta's pitching staff is pretty mediocre overall. Speaking of the median, it's interesting that Tyson Ross ranks above San Diego's highest profile offseason acquisition even though it will likely be James Shields pitching on opening day. One person whose opening day status won't be in doubt for a long time to come is Clayton Kershaw, the only pitcher in the top 10 and deservedly so. On the other side of the range, the fact that Jorge De La Rosa is ranked 150 spots below the next staff ace (Josh Collmenter of the Diamondbacks) is evidence how little the Rockies have prioritized the pitching side of their game.
Starting Pitcher 2Average: 174.2 (Drew Hutchison)
Median: 164 (Homer Bailey)
Range: 27 (Stephen Strasburg) - 488 (Jhoulys Chacin)
We see the continuation of a trend here as Hutchison is #3 on the Blue Jays rotational depth chart but he has the profile of a typical SP2. Speaking of continuing the trend, Jhoulys Chacin, also a Rockie, clocks in 185 ranks below the next competitor - Jeremy Hellickson, also of the Diamondbacks. As is evident from his super high rank, Stephen Strasburg would be an ace on all but five major league teams. It'll be interesting to see how he fares on the open market in a couple years, because with the presence of Max Scherzer, Tanner Roark, and some top shelf prospects in Washington, he doesn't seem to be part of their long term plans.
Starting Pitcher 3
Average: 254.6 (Justin Verlander / Jose Fernandez)
Median: 242 (Wei-Yin Chen)
Range: 49 (Jordan Zimmermann) - 566 (Jordan Lyles)
Maybe it's because the SP3 spot is the middle of the positional triangle, but the two average SP3's are actually their team's third ranked starters. Although in Fernandez's case, his ranking (and thus his placement) is deceptive because he will likely assume the role of ace for the Marlins whenever he's able to return from last year's Tommy John surgery. Some trends remain in place, however, namely the excellence and terribleness of Washington's and Colorado's rotation, respectively, only this time Lyles finished a full 150 spots behind Ricky Nolasco of the Twins. It's also worth noting that both the previous two Nationals pitchers finished in front of Zack Greinke (48) and Hyun-Jin Ryu (100) of the Dodgers.
Starting Pitcher 4
Average: 320.1 (Kyle Hendricks / Yovani Gallardo)
Median: 301 (J.A. Happ)
Range: 85 (Gio Gonzalez) - 572 (Kyle Kendrick)
Things are starting to even out here as Hendricks is #4 on a deep Cubs staff while Gallardo is slated to be #3 on a Rangers staff that is in a state of flux. This Washington rotation is so unfair that I feel like I need to mention that John Lackey (170) was next in line and more representative of the average team's fourth starter. Likewise, Colorado's pitching staff is so bad that David Buchanan of the Phillies deserves a dishonorable mention here as the next-to-worst SP4 in the league.
Starting Pitcher 5
Average: 434.0 (Travis Wood)
Median: 421 (Tsuyoshi Wada)
Range: 159 (Doug Fister) - 613 (Mike Foltynewicz) or 624 (Eric Stults)
It's interesting that the two pitchers that best exemplify the fifth starter spot are the two pitchers who will be battling it out to be the actual fifth starter for the Cubs. Of course Felix Doubront, Edwin Jackson, and Jacob Turner will be around as well, and it wouldn't be a surprise if one of these arms finds themselves dealt before the start of the season, but Wood and Wada definitely have the inside track. Again with this Washington rotation so let's give a shout out to Jon Niese of the Mets (305). For once, Colorado does not find itself on the low end of the range, and the reason for two potential Braves SP5's is that I'm not sure whether top prospect (and the fruit of the Evan Gattis trade) Mike Foltynewicz will be deployed in the bullpen as he was last year or whether Eric Stults will make the team out of Spring Training.
Average: 173.8 (Jonathan Papelbon)
Median: 149 (Joaquin Benoit)
Range: 46 (Aroldis Chapman) - 369 (Jenrry Mejia)
Papelbon's placement on this list ensures that roughly half the general managers in the sport are closely monitoring his situation with a trade in mind. Well, actually slightly less than half, as Benoit's median ranking proves. I don't want to surmise, but I wonder if Aroldis Chapman's comeback from a horrific line drive to the face last spring cemented his spot 10 places above other elite closers Craig Kimbrel (56) and Greg Holland (57).
Relief Pitcher 2
Average: 420.2 (Chad Qualls)
Median: 434 (Kevin Quackenbush)
Range: 204 (Andrew Miller) - 626 (Sam LeCure)
The real reason that RP2 is important in fantasy is for depth reasons - they usually don't come into play unless a closer gets injured and saves are up for grabs. I like keeping track of the top setup men because the deeper bullpen pieces play an important part over the course of a long season, but then again I have been known to be obsessive about certain baseball related facts. It makes sense that an established lefty like Andrew Miller would be at the top of the range here, not necessarily because he'll justify his historic four-year deal, but because he's coming to a storied franchise that's trying to break in a new closer. It also makes sense that the team with the top ranked reliever in baseball would also have the lowest-ranked second stringer.
Catcher
Average: 266.3 (Miguel Montero)
Median: 292 (Wilin Rosario)
Range: 23 (Buster Posey) - 532 (Tuffy Gosewisch)
It appears that league average catchers are hot commodities this year, given the trade rumors swirling around Colorado's Wilin Rosario and the fact that Miguel Montero was already acquired by the Cubs. It's interesting that both these players will contribute to their clubs in virtually opposite ways: Rosario's defensive limitations are well documented but he still swings a big stick, while Montero's above average pitch framing skills make up for his declining bat. Given the defensive necessity of this position, it's rare to find an offensive powerhouse such as Buster Posey who ranks more than 30 spots above his nearest competitor - Milwaukee's Jonathan Lucroy - although it's all but certain he will finish his career at first base. Arizona's lack of a viable major league catching option to replace Montero is well documented, and if they don't make a trade for someone like Toronto's Dioner Navarro, we could see a lot of replacement level at bats from the likes of Gerald Laird, Jordan Pacheco, and Rule 5 pick Oscar Hernandez.
Average: 201.2 (Lucas Duda / Eric Hosmer)
Median: 189 (Brandon Belt)
Range: 4 (Paul Goldschmidt) - 646 (Jon Singleton)
First base is a classic power position with the strongest high end except the outfield (three of the top 10 ranked players) and very solid fantasy contributors most of the way through. Looking at the top of the spectrum, I'd say it's about time that someone unseated Miguel Cabrera as the top infielder in the sport. He lost third base eligibility last year, and while he's still in his prime (just 31 years old), he's a full three years older than Arizona's star slugger. True, they both had 2014's marred by injury, but while Goldy's was a fluke hit-by-pitch that broke his hand and ended his season on August 1, Cabrera played through his ankle issues that eventually required offseason surgery. Don't get me wrong, the difference between #4 and #6 is basically nonexistent in the fantasy world and either one would be a blockbuster first pick, but it's a symbolic changing of the guard for sure. Also of note is how dejectedly low MLB is on former Astros 1B prospect Jon Singleton who's a full 200 ranks lower than the next first sacker: Oakland's Ike Davis. He could be an intriguing buy low candidate, especially since Chris Carter no longer has 1B eligibility.
Second Base
Average: 218.9 (Omar Infante)
Median: 203 (Jedd Gyorko)
Range: 9 (Jose Altuve) - 526 (Alberto Callaspo)
Looking at the above graph, you'll see a steady decline from the four infield positions starting at first base, so that means the top ranked infielders are extremely high value picks, but they drop off as you get towards the middle of the pack. We've got a changing of the guard at second base too with MLB banking on Jose Altuve building his breakout season rather than Robinson Cano continuing his quiet consistency. Personally I would go for a player with more than a one-year track record of excellence, but then again I wouldn't draft a second baseman in the first or second round anyway.
Third Base
Average: 242.8 (Brett Lawrie)
Median: 223 (Kris Bryant)
Range: 24 (Anthony Rendon) - 540 (Luis Valbuena)
There are a lot of interesting names in this blurb, whether because of their top prospect status, multi-positional eligibility, or the offseason transactions in which they were involved. Kris Bryant, baseball's consensus #2 prospect behind Byron Buxton, represents by far the highest rank for someone not currently on a 40-man roster. It's super impressive that a first year player is projected to step in and immediately perform at a league average clip. With the presence of Bryant, the Cubs were able to trade Luis Valbuena to the Astros, who now have the lowest ranked projected corner infielders. It's almost certain that Anthony Rendon will man the hot corner for the Nationals, but if he plays second base (where he's also eligible), then Josh Donaldson (31) and Adrian Beltre (32) would battle as the top third baseman in the league. Looking at these numbers only makes it even more depressing that the A's only received a league average talent in return for one of the best.
Shortstop
Average: 246.0 (Danny Santana / Javier Baez)
Median: 236 (Jed Lowrie)
Range: 15 (Troy Tulowitzki) - 599 (Freddy Galvis)
Interestingly enough, neither of the two shortstop-eligible players closest to the average shortstop rank spent significant times at positions other than shortstop last season. Javier Baez will play second base for the Cubs with Starlin Castro firmly entrenched at short and it's unclear whether Danny Santana will remain at center field until Buxton is ready for Minnesota. Troy Tulowitzki once again takes home the top prize, injury history be damned. On the low end of the range, Philadelphia fell into the same trap as Arizona in that they traded away a big league regular with no viable replacement - Freddy Galvis is more than 160 ranks below the next closest competitor (Adeiny Hechavarria at 436).
Average: 84.3 (J.D. Martinez)
Median: 41 (Billy Hamilton)
Range: 1 (Mike Trout) - 342 (Nick Markakis)
No group of players is so top heavy as first outfielders (five of the top 10 and 20 of the top 100), but that's mostly because we're basically picking from a group three times the size of any other position. The fact that the average is more than twice the median shows that there's quite a drop off in the later teams who don't prioritize having an offensive outfield. Mike Trout is obviously at the top of his game (and at the top of everyone's game), but almost as impressive are the guys right behind him: Giancarlo Stanton and Andrew McCutchen. I was also happy to see Adam Jones round out the top ten, who also serves as a sobering reminder of the Braves' situation, since his former teammate Nick Markakis was much more attractive as a number two or three outfielder.
Outfield 2
Average: 168.2 (Austin Jackson)
Median: 143 (Mookie Betts)
Range: 26 (Starling Marte) - 426 (B.J. Upton)
This group is similar to what we saw with SP3 where the average lines up almost exactly with the median - Austin Jackson, Seattle's #2 outfielder, since I'm counting Nelson Cruz as an outfielder even though he'll likely DH most of the time, is the next player down from Mookie Betts. Call me crazy, and I mean no disrespect to Pittsburgh since I like the Pirates a lot, but I think 26 is way to high a rank for Starling Marte. He's got a lot of talent, but to put him ahead of such proven superstars as Ryan Braun or even catcher-eligible outfielder Evan Gattis seems totally wrongheaded to me. I will still probably draft him super early because I'm a self-professed slave to the rankings, but I won't be happy about it...
Outfield 3
Average: 294.9 (Rajai Davis)
Median: 293 (Colby Rasmus)
Range: 104 (Charlie Blackmon) - 568 (Eric Young Jr.)
These, on the other hand, are rankings I can totally get behind. The median/mean guys profile basically the same: they're both center field eligible, neither will light up the leaderboards, but neither will they embarrass you in a fantasy setting. Last year I rode Charlie Blackmon to a great fantasy first half but then used him to acquire a more consistent player at the deadline (I used him as part of a package to acquire Sonny Gray), so it's clear that I see him as a regression candidate. We're seeing a definite trend with the sad state of the Braves outfield, and what's really scary is that it could be even worse if Eric Young Jr. doesn't win the third outfield spot out of spring training - Zoilo Almonte or Jonny Gomes would be next on the depth chart at 606 and 639, respectively.
Designated Hitter
Average: 293.6 (Rajai Davis)
Median: 285 (Kendrys Morales)
Range: 91 (David Ortiz) - 448 (Garrett Jones)
Do me a favor and scroll back up to the graph near the top of this post. Do you see how the average DH is almost exactly on par with the average third outfielder? I know there's a smaller sample size for these players, but I still find it fascinating how much the DH spot correlates to just being able to play an extra outfielder (even though most DH's really profile as first basemen).
Wow, that was a lot of information, but that's just how excited I get when it's time for Spring Training!
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