Projections vs. Reality: St. Louis Cardinals

Just under the wire with a post about the Cardinals again, as they could be one win away tonight from knocking the Brewers out of the postseason and reaching the World Series for the first time since 2006.  I personally hope the Brewers win two at home to advance, partly because I like the Brewers, but partly because it would be too much of an underdog story to have a team projected to finish 4th in the division play in the Fall Classic.  However, the first comment the scout makes in "Enemy Lines" is that you can never count this team out because of their pitching staff and Manager Tony LaRussa's impeccable ability to strategically run his bullpen in the ground.

The next comment is that "there's nothing not to like about Chris Carpenter."  Well obviously this scout never consulted the Brewers - who have their own set of issues with the hurler - or examined Carp's injury history, which caused him to miss two of the past five seasons.  Keep in mind, their plan was to have Carpenter as the #2 starter behind Adam Wainwright, before the latter went down for the year with Tommy John surgery.  The scout praises replacement Kyle McClellan's curveball, which nevertheless wasn't enough to keep him in the rotation for the full year.  He also claimed

The scout also comments on Albert Pujols' apparent lack of focus throughout the spring.  Perhaps the looming promise of free agency and the potential of a $30m a year contract distracted him a bit.  This distraction apparently continued to the regular season, as 2011 was the first time in his 11 year career that Pujols failed to hit .300 or reach 100 RBI (he missed both  by 1).  Another thing the scout got right was that the Cardinals would not be happy with Ryan Theriot's defense - he cost his team between 8 and 12 runs with his glove at SS... but was anywhere from 3 to 6 runs above average at 2B (where he moved after the acquisition of Rafael Furcal).

One mis-judgment by the scout was that "Colby Rasmus is way too good a player to trade" - tell that to the Toronto Blue Jays, who acquired the potential star centerfielder in a blockbuster trade.  I don't think the scout writes the "Modest Proposal" section, but that includes another mis-judgment: play Allen Craig in RF over newcoming veteran Lance Berkman.  Tell that to his 31 HR, .959 OPS, and 5.2 WAR.  (That WAR includes 5.9 offensively and -0.7 on defense, as he's definitely better suited as a 1B/DH type.)  Craig played well in 75 games (2.1 WAR), and was better in the field (1 to 8 runs saved), but even when they needed another outfielder, the Redbirds went with Jon Jay (1.3 WAR) more often than not, so they must think less highly of Craig than the editors of SI.

"The Number" is 10 blown saves by the 2010 Cardinals' bullpen, "the fewest in the NL since 2004."  All that changed in 2011, where the team blew 26 late-inning leads.  Ryan Franklin (he of the 93.1% success rate last year) blew 4 of his 5 chances, and was promptly replaced by youngster Fernando Salas (and later in the playoffs by Jason Motte, who doesn't even figure as the ONE non-closer reliever in the SI preview.  That spot goes to Mitchell Boggs, who was good, but didn't figure nearly as much into the team's bullpen.  This is one grievance I have with the SI Baseball preview: the bullpen is such a big part of a team's strategy and success, and they leave room for a closer and ONE other reliever?  When the football preview leaves room for the entire defense and offensive line?  Where's the respect to America's true pastime.  OK rant over.  Enjoy the NLCS tonight...).