Friday, July 9, 2010

Trades! - Cliff Lee!


I was just on my way to wrap up my series about the All-Star rosters until I caught wind of the very first megadeal of the season: Mariners starting pitcher Cliff Lee goes to the Rangers for prospects and cash. This trade bolsters Texas's rotation for their hopeful playoff push and restocks the Mariners' farm system with prospects, while also keeping (arguably) the best left-handed starter in the game away from the superpowers (i.e. Yankees or Red Sox) or the lovable hopefulls (i.e. Dodgers or Rays).

There are a number of things to look at when evaluating a big deal like this.

No. 1 - Who Is Involved?

Who exactly is Cliff Lee, and how well is he doing this year. Maybe you'll remember when he won the Cy Young award in 2008 for the Indians. You might recall his name as the key player in a dramatic deadline to deal that sent him to the Phillies last year. Or you might remember him by his stellar performance in the 2009 Post-Season, where he won all four of his starts, including two in the World Series against the Yankees. Or maybe you remember hearing the name in mid-December, when he was sent to the Mariners in the trade that brought Roy Halladay to the Phillies. Or perhaps you've heard of his genuinely stupid 14.83 strikeout-to-walk ratio (89-6: the major league record is 11.00).

So yeah, the Rangers are getting a pretty formidable weapon. Perhaps even the AL's starter for the 2010 All-Star Game. The Rangers are also getting serviceable reliever Mark Lowe, who was good last year, but made just 11 appearances in 2010 before undergoing back surgery. And some cash - but more on that later.

2. Where Is He Going?

The Rangers are currently tops in the AL West with the 3rd best record in the league. He joins a rotation made up of two solid veterans with storied pasts (Colby Lewis and C.J. Wilson), a struggling former ace (Scott Feldman), and a hot young prospect (Tommy Hunter) taking over for an injured always-hopeful (Rich Harden). Four solid slots. The fifth starter spot has thus far been filled with ragtags (Matt Harrison, Derek Holland, Dustin Nippert, and Omar Beltre).

Lee's arrival makes him the de facto ace. Behind him are C.J. Wilson, who was the team's closer just nine short months ago, and Colby Lewis, fresh off his re-introduction to America from two successful years in Japan. Feldman won 17 games last year, but has struggled to the tune of a 5.51 ERA this year. Rich Harden was even worse when he was healthy (5.68 ERA, 1.677 WHIP), and it was the stellar play of his replacement - 23-year-old Tommy Hunter (2.34 ERA supporting his 5-0 record) - that has kept the Rangers in the hunt.

As you can see, Lee gives the Rangers five solid starting pitchers who can take the mound every five days, four of whom look to have above-average talent. Pretty formidable indeed.

3. What Was the Cost of Acquiring Him?

The Rangers gave up three players to get Lee. They shipped away their erstwhile starting first baseman Justin Smoak, a first-round draft pick from 2008. In this, his first year in the majors, Smoak hasn't been able to get in the groove (.670 OPS, more than 200 points less than his .872 career mark in the minors over 135 games).

21-year-old Blake Beavan, a first-round draft pick from 2007, has racked up a 10-5 record and a 2.78 ERA in 17 AA starts this year. Josh Lueke, a 25-year-old reliever, has torn up A ball, but has come down to earth in AA. Matt Lawson has been taking up space at second base in AA. Basically two players with potential, two less so.

4. What's Up With That Cash?

The Rangers are currently bankrupt, and are in the process of finding a new owner. In the interim, they are owned by the league - a joint committee of representatives from the 13 other teams. The Mariners are sending $2.25 million to help pay for the $4 million owed to Lee. But that extra $1.5 million taken on by the Rangers (while that same amount is nothing more than rounding error for what the Yankees pay Alex Rodriguez alone) might be a snag in the eyes of the bankruptcy court.

If that's the case, we could have a situation similar to what Montreal went through when they traded for Bartolo Colon and Cliff Floyd in 2002. Those deals - the first of which, oddly enough involved Cliff Lee going from the Expos to the Indians - saw the bankrupt and ownerless Expos take on significant portions of Colon's and Floyd's salaries - $4.9 million and $6.5 million respectively. The league nixed the excessive spending, despite the team's playoff hopes, and all but forced them to spin Floyd off to the significantly more financially secure Red Sox after just 15 games in Montreal.

A similar scenario is unlikely, given the Rangers' solid spot in the standings and the relatively small amount of debt changing hands - even in a recession, $1.5 million is not a lot for baseball team owners.

5. Predictions

This deal definitely bolsters the Rangers rotation against any attacks from the defending champion Angels, who seem to have a near-magical knack for scoring runs against all odds. I hope it does: it's time for some new blood atop the AL West Even if it can't be green and gold, anyone is better than that Anaheim scum...

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