Sunday, April 29, 2012
Picture of the Week: 4/28/12
Phil Humber's perfect game actually came at the tail end of LAST week, but it's never too early to relive the celebration of an event so rare as a perfect game! Here's a shot of Humber being interviewed while his teammates play a congratulatory prank, juxtaposed with what the interviewing camera saw.
Saturday, April 28, 2012
Aries Rams: In-Depth Analysis
Aries Rams
A quick look at the depth chart shows that Aries has a lot of depth at RF and C, and floating depth at 1B and 3B. The "floating" aspect has to do with ever-changing positional eligibility: their top-ranked slugger Miguel Cabrera started the season as a first baseman, but after starting all 17 of his appearances at 3B this year he now has eligibility across the diamond. This is good because moving Miggy (once a nickname reserved for Miguel Tejada) opens up a spot at 1B for Mark Teixeira. But it's also complicated (I won't say bad) because it would supplant incumbent 3B Adrian Beltre.
Aries's surprising top scorer is someone who didn't even begin the season on their roster: Corey Hart, who's doing his best to replace the Brewers' former star slugger who left to join Cabrera on the Tigers. Hart started the season an astonishing 5th on the Aries depth chart in RF behind Hunter Pence, Jay Bruce, Michael Cuddyer, and Andre Ethier. Ethier and Cuddyer join Hart and fantasy "tentpole" Cabrera in the coveted top-50 category, along with star-on-the-rise Shorstop Starlin Castro of the Cubs. Speaking of the Cubs, we were all set to watch them take on the Phillies tonight on MLB Network, but the long-anticipated major league debut of #2 Prospect Bryce Harper for the Nationals will apparently take programming precedence. Perhaps I'll have to revamp my proposed schedule after just one day...
RF is not the Rams' only strong position: 3 of the top 5 ranked Catchers were born under the Aries constellation. Interestingly enough, all 3 of these stars have missed significant time due to injuries in recent years: Carlos Santana and Buster Posey were involved in brutal home plate collisions, and Joe Mauer's body just happens to be tied together with string.
Injuries haven't hit this team too hard, unless they happen to be building a roster in a fantasy league that differentiates between corner outfield positions, because Michael Morse hasn't yet played in a game all season. Kyle Farnsworth is a bit of a wild card given all his years not closing, but his return will be welcome, as Axford and Valverde haven't exactly been on point. Also, Jeremy Guthrie just went on the DL this morning, but I'm too lazy to redo my graphic.
I don't know if it's the Aries tendency to be competitive and impulsive that caused Posey and Santana to throw caution to the wind while defending home plate against that one extra run. Has Felix Hernandez blossomed into one of the best young pitchers in the game due to the "prophetic" nature imbued in Aries signs? Maybe the fact that many Aries "lack in social graces" explains Miguel Cabrera's domestic/alcohol troubles. And I wonder if it's a coincidence that Cabrera won Player of the Week honors for the first week of the season, smack-dab in the middle of his sign. Of that helped Beltre and Ethier hit home runs on their birthdays. I guess only the stars will know...
Friday, April 27, 2012
Thoughts About Baseball 2012 Schedule
Last night, I watched MLB Network's broadcast of the Sox Rivalry: the Red variety from Boston roundly trounced the White variety from the south side of Chicago 10-3. This game is notable because it features Phil Humber (whose name everyone will soon know to pronounce with a silent "H") in his first start after pitching a no-hitter last week. It's also notable because this game happened concurrently to the Red Sox' announcement that Carl Crawford has a sprained ulnar collateral ligament in his left elbow and will be shut down for at least 3 months.
The only reason I'm paying such close attention to this game is, quite frankly, that it was on TV. While this might seem an arbitrary reason to care about a particular matchup on a particular day, I had the idea that using the tried and tested method of following the broadcast schedule might be a good way to further narrow down the scope of this blog, since it's naive to think an amateur enthusiast such as myself could adequately cover the enitrety of the sport I love so well.
I say "further" narrow the scope, because I've recently performed some soul-searching and determined that of all 30 major league teams, I'm only really personally connected (through friends and relatives and whatnot) to about half of them. And it's to those 15 teams I will limit my in-depth analysis, of which a correspondingly in-depth post will occur roughly once weekly. To those 15 - the identities of which will be revealed during their special week - add another 6, representing the astrological signs that celebrate their birthdays during the baseball season (or post-season), and I've got myself a nice little schedule to keep myself occupied through the rest of the season.
This week's team will be the aforementioned Aries Rams, who have their very own fantasy baseball team this year. Actually, this "week" (week ending 4/28) is retroactive to the week we're currently in, which encompasses the week after Aries transitioned into Taurus. Expect this post sometime over the weekend.
So that's what's coming up next week, for those of who could care less about the fantasy baseball ramifications of different players' astrological signs. But if you want to follow me down the rabbit hole of the stars, stay tuned for my next post!
Monday, April 23, 2012
PICTURE OF THE WEEK: 4/21/12
The week-ending Saturday 4/21 featured the 100th anniversary of Fenway Park in Boston, and also the opening of All-Star Voting (on Friday 4/20). Seems a little early to me, considering the season started less than a month ago, even taking into account the early start in Japan. I know the All-Star Game is essentially a popularity contest, but popularity among athletes has a tendency to rise and fall with their statistical performance, and I think you need a little more time than 3+ weeks to judge who deserves to be honored with a midsummer trip to Kansas City to represent their teams/leagues.
Monday, April 16, 2012
PICTURE OF THE WEEK: 4/15/12
This cake, based on the Miami Marlins' new park, features a working roof and 3,600 Swarovski crystals making up the logo. This is the same team (albeit with a new name) that came under a lot of flack a couple years ago when their leaked financial reports revealed that they weren't putting quite as much of their revenue-sharing dollars towards their team's payroll as the commissioner would have liked...
Saturday, April 14, 2012
Relievers turned Starter
When compiling my 40-man roster project, I used ESPN.com's fantasy baseball positional eligibility as of opening day to sort the players. I thought this would be a better estimation of the roles people would actually play on their teams during 2012 as opposed to just a summary of where they played in 2011. But as I checked the eligibility requirements (which I admittedly should have done before embarking on this pursuit) I learned that those two factors will be one and the same until players have spent at least 10 days at their 2012 positions. As of now, a player is eligible for any position at which he played at least 20 games in 2011. Thus new position changes - Miguel Cabrera to 3B from 1B, Yonder Alonso to 1B from LF, Marco Scutaro to 2B from SS, etc. - have not yet taken effect.
But perhaps the most telling discrepancies I'm noticing now have to do with which reliever-eligible pitchers will be spending 2012 in the starting rotations. Most fantasy leagues have several "P" spots, into which owners can slot either type of pitcher, so these changes generally shouldn't have too much impact on how people manage their teams. But seeing as it will take these starters 10 starts (or roughly 50 days) to be properly recognized, I thought I'd give a shout to a pitching staff made of some of the more notable ones.
Neftali Feliz, TEX - After saving 72 games over the previous two regular seasons (plus 7 more in the playoffs during that span), he's going to have to work on commanding his secondary pitches. As a closer he was basically fastball/slider, throwing his changeup only 2.6% of the time, but he's already started to reverse that trend: in his one start this year (a 7-inning scoreless gem) he pulled the string on 23% of his pitches.
Daniel Bard, BOS - Bard acted as a setup man for his previous three seasons, but a Boston pitching staff rife with injuries and uncertainty forced him to make the transition to the rotation at age 27. He can reach 100mph, but to make it as a starter, you have to know how to pitch rather than just throw hard. Bard was knocked around by Toronto in his first start of the year, but he might just be keeping with the slow starting tradition of his team.
Chris Sale, CHW - I think it was always assumed that Sale would end up in the White Sox rotation, but he was called on to cut his teeth in the bullpen last year. According to scouting reports, the 6'6" lefty still pitches on adrenaline like a reliever rather than establishing all of his pitches early, but he's got a win in his first start this year and has a commanding presence on the mound.
Jeff Samardzija, CHC - Across the city of Chicago, another setup man who had a dominant season pitching in the 7th and the 8th innings last year will try to pitch into the 7th and 8th innings this year. The Sports Illustrated scout who covers the Cubs this year thinks Samardzija's better suited for the bullpen, but if he can maintain the performance from his first two starts (both wins) for the rest of the season, he'll enjoy proving that scout wrong.
For the fifth starter spot, we have three guys who relieved primarily in the majors but who haven't had enough time to really establish themselves as relievers. Felix Doubront will fill in as the Red Sox's fifth starter after starting 3 out of 23 games in his two-year major league career. Hector Noesi, who came over to Seattle from the Yankees in the trade for Michael Pineda has 2 starts in 30 appearances in his only season last year. Rookie Joel Carreno cracked the Blue Jays rotation after throwing 15.2 innings in relief last year, but he was primarily a starter in his 6 minor league seasons.
On the other side of the equation, Brett Myers of the Astros will make the transition from the team's number 1 starter to its closer this year, returning to the role he filled with the Phillies in 2007 when he compiled 21 saves, the only ones of his career. A similar shift occurred in Texas's other team, where Alexi Ogando moves back to the bullpen to join Mike Adams in setting up Joe Nathan, after spending 2011 as a pretty effective starter.
But perhaps the most telling discrepancies I'm noticing now have to do with which reliever-eligible pitchers will be spending 2012 in the starting rotations. Most fantasy leagues have several "P" spots, into which owners can slot either type of pitcher, so these changes generally shouldn't have too much impact on how people manage their teams. But seeing as it will take these starters 10 starts (or roughly 50 days) to be properly recognized, I thought I'd give a shout to a pitching staff made of some of the more notable ones.
Neftali Feliz, TEX - After saving 72 games over the previous two regular seasons (plus 7 more in the playoffs during that span), he's going to have to work on commanding his secondary pitches. As a closer he was basically fastball/slider, throwing his changeup only 2.6% of the time, but he's already started to reverse that trend: in his one start this year (a 7-inning scoreless gem) he pulled the string on 23% of his pitches.
Daniel Bard, BOS - Bard acted as a setup man for his previous three seasons, but a Boston pitching staff rife with injuries and uncertainty forced him to make the transition to the rotation at age 27. He can reach 100mph, but to make it as a starter, you have to know how to pitch rather than just throw hard. Bard was knocked around by Toronto in his first start of the year, but he might just be keeping with the slow starting tradition of his team.
Chris Sale, CHW - I think it was always assumed that Sale would end up in the White Sox rotation, but he was called on to cut his teeth in the bullpen last year. According to scouting reports, the 6'6" lefty still pitches on adrenaline like a reliever rather than establishing all of his pitches early, but he's got a win in his first start this year and has a commanding presence on the mound.
Jeff Samardzija, CHC - Across the city of Chicago, another setup man who had a dominant season pitching in the 7th and the 8th innings last year will try to pitch into the 7th and 8th innings this year. The Sports Illustrated scout who covers the Cubs this year thinks Samardzija's better suited for the bullpen, but if he can maintain the performance from his first two starts (both wins) for the rest of the season, he'll enjoy proving that scout wrong.
For the fifth starter spot, we have three guys who relieved primarily in the majors but who haven't had enough time to really establish themselves as relievers. Felix Doubront will fill in as the Red Sox's fifth starter after starting 3 out of 23 games in his two-year major league career. Hector Noesi, who came over to Seattle from the Yankees in the trade for Michael Pineda has 2 starts in 30 appearances in his only season last year. Rookie Joel Carreno cracked the Blue Jays rotation after throwing 15.2 innings in relief last year, but he was primarily a starter in his 6 minor league seasons.
On the other side of the equation, Brett Myers of the Astros will make the transition from the team's number 1 starter to its closer this year, returning to the role he filled with the Phillies in 2007 when he compiled 21 saves, the only ones of his career. A similar shift occurred in Texas's other team, where Alexi Ogando moves back to the bullpen to join Mike Adams in setting up Joe Nathan, after spending 2011 as a pretty effective starter.
Thursday, April 12, 2012
Opening Day Rosters
A Major League Roster is a living, breathing thing. Roles are constantly shifting, players are being moved between the active roster, the disabled list, and the minor leagues. With these changes happening daily across all 30 teams, only the stalwart folks in the Commissioner's Office (and to a lesser extent the hard workers at MLB Advanced Media, L.P.) can truly keep up with it all.
But a team's Opening Day Roster has an air of somewhat more permanence to it. It serves as a snapshot that encapsulates all the tireless work put in by the front offices of each team during the winter months to get their squads ready for the long-awaited and much-heralded start of the season. These are the rosters that are approximated in videogames, fantasy baseball projections, and pre-season predictions everywhere. Which is why I've spent the better part of the last week analyzing each team's roster, as it appeared on each team's official website as of 4/6/12 (the day after each team had played at least one game).
I offer here an example of all the hard work I did (although I didn't consider it work) in the form of a 40-man roster especially close to my heart, that of the Oakland Athletics. The roster first, then some explanation to follow:
First, let's go through the columns. Rank is from MLB.com's Fantasy Baseball page, also from 4/6. Prospect (the name is cut off to save room) refers to MLB.com's Prospect Watch page, captured slightly earlier than 4/6, but these numbers are less mutable. Player's positions are listed based on their fantasy eligibility according to ESPN.com's system. (In the cases where a batter has eligibility for multiple positions, the one at which the player logged more innings is listed. Any pitcher with starter eligibility is listed as such.)
If the name in the Team column is in italics, the player didn't have enough at bats (100) or innings pitched (20.0) to qualify for relevance. SWP stands for Small World Points, named for the now-defunct site where I first saw this system implemented, nearly 10 years ago. This system of fantasy scoring reduces each player's performance to a single number taking into account a broad range of statistical categories, and then calculates the player's average point output per game (SWP/G).
The next three columns are the same as the previous three except with statistics from the minor leagues (all levels) or foreign leagues (I think Japan and Cuba are the only ones that come into play here). The most informative thing to do with this column is to compare a player's minor league points per game with their major league points per game to see how likely they are to maintain that level of performance in the majors.
Now a word about the color-coding system. Any player whose position column is highlighted green is listed as a rookie. According to MLB's 2012 Prospect Watch,
A player's Bat/Throw column indicates his status on the various roster types. No fill means the player is on the active roster, aka 25-man roster. These are the players who suit up every day and who you can expect to see in games. A blue highlight means the player is on the expanded roster and can be called up to the majors at any time. (Each major leaguer has three "option years" during which they can be sent up and down between the minors and the active roster without going through waivers, where they can be claimed by any of the other 30 clubs.)
A red highlight means that the player is on the 15-day disabled list. These players remain on the 40-man roster, but are ineligible to play until they've served their time and gotten all healed. An orange highlight indicates a player on the 60-day disabled list, which means they are not on the 40-man roster. Last but not least, if a player's swp column is shaded gray, that player missed all of 2011 and the stats are from 2010.
The A's have a lot of yellow on their 2012 roster - trading away all your highest profile talent should net a fair amount in return, after all. Add to that a couple uncharacteristic free agent signings (not to mention re-signings, which don't have a color associated with them) and you've got a team that looks very different from its 2011 version. Looking at the blue-highlighted players, it's interesting to see that 2 of the A's top 5 starting pitchers (both included on MLB's list of top 100 prospects) aren't on the active roster. Billy Beane is subsisting on four starters for as long as humanly possible before deciding which top prospect to officially anoint with a rotation spot.
In the What a Difference a Week Makes category, Daric Barton has already been reinstated from the DL and Brandon Allen has been designated for assignment, all but assuring that the main prize in last year's trade of Brad Ziegler will be plucked off the waiver wire by some other team willing to take a shot on a promising slugger whose best seasons came in the minors. Also, get ready to see Joey Devine transferred from the 15-day to the 60-day DL following the recent announcement that he will be undergoing his second Tommy John elbow ligament replacement surgery in four years. This will put the A's in uncontested second place for most uses of the 60-day DL behind only the Boston Red Sox with a whopping five players out for two months or more.
So now you all know what I've been doing with my time during the start of the season. You might see some rosters for select other teams up here, depending on how newsworthy these next few weeks prove. But now that I've learned how to make ESPN's fantasy baseball system compute real-time swp - which is so much easier than keeping track of 20 different statistical categories - there's a whole new world of analytics open to me in 2012.
But a team's Opening Day Roster has an air of somewhat more permanence to it. It serves as a snapshot that encapsulates all the tireless work put in by the front offices of each team during the winter months to get their squads ready for the long-awaited and much-heralded start of the season. These are the rosters that are approximated in videogames, fantasy baseball projections, and pre-season predictions everywhere. Which is why I've spent the better part of the last week analyzing each team's roster, as it appeared on each team's official website as of 4/6/12 (the day after each team had played at least one game).
I offer here an example of all the hard work I did (although I didn't consider it work) in the form of a 40-man roster especially close to my heart, that of the Oakland Athletics. The roster first, then some explanation to follow:
First, let's go through the columns. Rank is from MLB.com's Fantasy Baseball page, also from 4/6. Prospect (the name is cut off to save room) refers to MLB.com's Prospect Watch page, captured slightly earlier than 4/6, but these numbers are less mutable. Player's positions are listed based on their fantasy eligibility according to ESPN.com's system. (In the cases where a batter has eligibility for multiple positions, the one at which the player logged more innings is listed. Any pitcher with starter eligibility is listed as such.)
If the name in the Team column is in italics, the player didn't have enough at bats (100) or innings pitched (20.0) to qualify for relevance. SWP stands for Small World Points, named for the now-defunct site where I first saw this system implemented, nearly 10 years ago. This system of fantasy scoring reduces each player's performance to a single number taking into account a broad range of statistical categories, and then calculates the player's average point output per game (SWP/G).
The next three columns are the same as the previous three except with statistics from the minor leagues (all levels) or foreign leagues (I think Japan and Cuba are the only ones that come into play here). The most informative thing to do with this column is to compare a player's minor league points per game with their major league points per game to see how likely they are to maintain that level of performance in the majors.
Now a word about the color-coding system. Any player whose position column is highlighted green is listed as a rookie. According to MLB's 2012 Prospect Watch,
To qualify for rookie status, a player must not have exceeded 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the Major Leagues, or accumulated more than 45 days on the active roster of a Major League club or clubs during the 25-player limit period, excluding time on the disabled list or in military service.This column shows an approximation, because while AB and IP is easy enough to figure out, I don't feel the need to scrub through every young player's game log and transaction history. If a player's name is highlighted in yellow, that player was acquired during the off-season. For a deeper look into these players, please see my previous two posts.
A player's Bat/Throw column indicates his status on the various roster types. No fill means the player is on the active roster, aka 25-man roster. These are the players who suit up every day and who you can expect to see in games. A blue highlight means the player is on the expanded roster and can be called up to the majors at any time. (Each major leaguer has three "option years" during which they can be sent up and down between the minors and the active roster without going through waivers, where they can be claimed by any of the other 30 clubs.)
A red highlight means that the player is on the 15-day disabled list. These players remain on the 40-man roster, but are ineligible to play until they've served their time and gotten all healed. An orange highlight indicates a player on the 60-day disabled list, which means they are not on the 40-man roster. Last but not least, if a player's swp column is shaded gray, that player missed all of 2011 and the stats are from 2010.
The A's have a lot of yellow on their 2012 roster - trading away all your highest profile talent should net a fair amount in return, after all. Add to that a couple uncharacteristic free agent signings (not to mention re-signings, which don't have a color associated with them) and you've got a team that looks very different from its 2011 version. Looking at the blue-highlighted players, it's interesting to see that 2 of the A's top 5 starting pitchers (both included on MLB's list of top 100 prospects) aren't on the active roster. Billy Beane is subsisting on four starters for as long as humanly possible before deciding which top prospect to officially anoint with a rotation spot.
In the What a Difference a Week Makes category, Daric Barton has already been reinstated from the DL and Brandon Allen has been designated for assignment, all but assuring that the main prize in last year's trade of Brad Ziegler will be plucked off the waiver wire by some other team willing to take a shot on a promising slugger whose best seasons came in the minors. Also, get ready to see Joey Devine transferred from the 15-day to the 60-day DL following the recent announcement that he will be undergoing his second Tommy John elbow ligament replacement surgery in four years. This will put the A's in uncontested second place for most uses of the 60-day DL behind only the Boston Red Sox with a whopping five players out for two months or more.
So now you all know what I've been doing with my time during the start of the season. You might see some rosters for select other teams up here, depending on how newsworthy these next few weeks prove. But now that I've learned how to make ESPN's fantasy baseball system compute real-time swp - which is so much easier than keeping track of 20 different statistical categories - there's a whole new world of analytics open to me in 2012.
Monday, April 2, 2012
NL All-Acquired Team 2012
To pick off where I left off, the sum total of the MLB.com fantasy rankings of the NL All-Acquired team's projected lineup comes out to 3078. That's nearly 460 points lower (i.e. better) than the AL team, despite the fact that the AL gained the number 2 ranked player overall. In examining this roster, it'll be fun to keep in mind whether a team built around a few great players is better poised to win than a more well-rounded club.
The best impact bat on this squad is easily Jose Reyes, who signed as a free agent with the new look Miami Marlins. He is set to score a lot of runs batting atop a lineup that also features Hanley Ramirez and Giancarlo Stanton. Behind him in my projected lineup are two of Reyes's former teammates with the Mets: Angel Pagan and Carlos Beltran, in CF and RF respectively. Pagan will hit leadoff for the Giants, but is ideally suited to bat second since he makes a lot of contact (he puts 78% of balls in play, nearly 10 points higher than the MLB average) and he won't be blocked on the basepaths by the speedy Reyes. Beltran is slated to hit second in the Cardinals lineup despite showing a resurgence of his power stroke last season - 11.2% of his hits went for extra bases - but I guess rookie manager Mike Matheny likes how Beltran's line drive swing fits in front of Holliday, Berkman, and Freese.
The next highest-ranking hitter is Brewers new cleanup hitter, Aramis Ramirez. The Sports Illustrated scout thinks he's too far past his prime to protect Ryan Braun in the lineup... but if you've got enough testosterone in your system, who needs protection? The versatile Michael Cuddyer will play 1B for this team, even though he'll start in RF for the Rockies. the next best 1B on the roster - Yonder Alonso, the NL West's "Rookie to Watch" after being traded to the Padres from the Reds - is ranked almost 100 places lower. Melky Cabrera will bat 6th, in the "second leadoff" spot, but Cuddyer's former teammate and new division-mate Jason Kubel will be ready to step in if the Melk Man's uncharacteristically strong 2011 season turns out to be a fluke. A pair of Cuddyer's new teammates (and former teammates on the Moneyball-era A's) Marco Scutaro and Ramon Hernandez round out the lineup.
The top pitcher on this roster was the main prize the Reds got for trading Alonso: Mat Latos. He has shown good stuff in San Diego, but who knows how the transition from the league's most extreme pitcher's park to one that strongly favors hitters will impact his production. The next two hurlers on the staff were supposed to be members of the A's Big Three - and indeed they suffered much the same fate as their predecessors. Trevor Cahill and Gio Gonzalez both made All-Star teams playing in Oakland, but at least they netted Billy Beane three rotation-ready starters and a top catching prospect in trades. It's interesting that 2 of the top 5 starters on the NL team came from the A's, and 3 of the top 10 starters on the AL team came to the A's.
A.J. Burnett would have made the starting rotation if he hadn't taken a foul bunt off his eye early in camp. Instead his new teammate on the Pirates, Erik Bedard, will take his place. Travis Wood is ranked fairly high for someone who was just reassigned to minor league camp - I think a professional veteran lefty like Mark Buehrle would contribute more to this staff. The bullpen is a big strength for this club with Jonathan Papelbon moving 300 miles down the I-84 from Boston to Philadelphia, and Heath Bell moving 2,600 miles east on the I-10 from San Diego to Miami. Their average rank of 77 is a big reason why the NL club has supremacy in the rankings: the AL's two relief pitchers average out to 119.
So there you have it: All-Acquired teams for each league in 2012. I didn't purchase the newest version of MLB: The Show, so I can't set up a simulation like I did last year. But it will be interesting to keep these depth charts in mind as the season progresses to see how the top players are adapting to their new surroundings.
The best impact bat on this squad is easily Jose Reyes, who signed as a free agent with the new look Miami Marlins. He is set to score a lot of runs batting atop a lineup that also features Hanley Ramirez and Giancarlo Stanton. Behind him in my projected lineup are two of Reyes's former teammates with the Mets: Angel Pagan and Carlos Beltran, in CF and RF respectively. Pagan will hit leadoff for the Giants, but is ideally suited to bat second since he makes a lot of contact (he puts 78% of balls in play, nearly 10 points higher than the MLB average) and he won't be blocked on the basepaths by the speedy Reyes. Beltran is slated to hit second in the Cardinals lineup despite showing a resurgence of his power stroke last season - 11.2% of his hits went for extra bases - but I guess rookie manager Mike Matheny likes how Beltran's line drive swing fits in front of Holliday, Berkman, and Freese.
The next highest-ranking hitter is Brewers new cleanup hitter, Aramis Ramirez. The Sports Illustrated scout thinks he's too far past his prime to protect Ryan Braun in the lineup... but if you've got enough testosterone in your system, who needs protection? The versatile Michael Cuddyer will play 1B for this team, even though he'll start in RF for the Rockies. the next best 1B on the roster - Yonder Alonso, the NL West's "Rookie to Watch" after being traded to the Padres from the Reds - is ranked almost 100 places lower. Melky Cabrera will bat 6th, in the "second leadoff" spot, but Cuddyer's former teammate and new division-mate Jason Kubel will be ready to step in if the Melk Man's uncharacteristically strong 2011 season turns out to be a fluke. A pair of Cuddyer's new teammates (and former teammates on the Moneyball-era A's) Marco Scutaro and Ramon Hernandez round out the lineup.
The top pitcher on this roster was the main prize the Reds got for trading Alonso: Mat Latos. He has shown good stuff in San Diego, but who knows how the transition from the league's most extreme pitcher's park to one that strongly favors hitters will impact his production. The next two hurlers on the staff were supposed to be members of the A's Big Three - and indeed they suffered much the same fate as their predecessors. Trevor Cahill and Gio Gonzalez both made All-Star teams playing in Oakland, but at least they netted Billy Beane three rotation-ready starters and a top catching prospect in trades. It's interesting that 2 of the top 5 starters on the NL team came from the A's, and 3 of the top 10 starters on the AL team came to the A's.
A.J. Burnett would have made the starting rotation if he hadn't taken a foul bunt off his eye early in camp. Instead his new teammate on the Pirates, Erik Bedard, will take his place. Travis Wood is ranked fairly high for someone who was just reassigned to minor league camp - I think a professional veteran lefty like Mark Buehrle would contribute more to this staff. The bullpen is a big strength for this club with Jonathan Papelbon moving 300 miles down the I-84 from Boston to Philadelphia, and Heath Bell moving 2,600 miles east on the I-10 from San Diego to Miami. Their average rank of 77 is a big reason why the NL club has supremacy in the rankings: the AL's two relief pitchers average out to 119.
So there you have it: All-Acquired teams for each league in 2012. I didn't purchase the newest version of MLB: The Show, so I can't set up a simulation like I did last year. But it will be interesting to keep these depth charts in mind as the season progresses to see how the top players are adapting to their new surroundings.
Saturday, March 31, 2012
AL All-Acquired Team 2012
With the end of another off-season comes the opportunity to evaluate another off-season. And I'd like to start by looking at some of the best players who will be suiting up for different teams next season. So with the help of MLB.com's fantasy player rankings and the Sports Illustrated Baseball Preview issue here is a graphical representation of the AL All-Acquired Team for 2012.
The top-ranked player to be moved (in fact, the second-top-ranked player anywhere, according to MLB.com) is Albert Pujols, who became the Angels' new first baseman. He's predicted to be the AL West's MVP by SI, even though he had career lows in 3 of the 4 major rate stats last year. The scout that covers the Angels in the magazine seems to think signing Pujols assures them a spot in the playoffs, even giving them the chance to "win a World Series or two." His new teammate C.J. Wilson is the third highest-ranked player on this roster at 51. The left-handed converted closer was the Rangers' ace last season, but he'll pitch third in a strong Angels rotation led by Jered Weaver and Dan Haren. (The SI scout pegs Wilson as the 4th best pitcher on the team, but I can't imagine either Ervin Santana or Jordan Walden ranked above him.)
The player ranked between the two best newest Angels will be the AL's DH: Prince Fielder (the AL Central's projected MVP). Acquired by the Tigers when it became apparent that Victor Martinez would miss the whole season, he's primed to continue his upward trend hitting behind Miguel Cabrera, and also based on how good his bat speed has looked this spring. Another DH candidate is the AL West's "Rookie to Watch" Jesus Montero. Ideally Montero would catch for this squad, cuz he has no other spot in the lineup, but he apparently has big problems with his footwork behind the plate. The AL's next-best hitter, 1B Carlos Pena, who returns to the Rays, also has no spot in the lineup, and will have to be content with sitting at third on the depth chart.
The AL's next-best pitcher was the centerpiece of the Montero trade, sophomore Michael Pineda. For the sake of my fantasy team, I'm hoping he'll pick up where his dominant rookie campaign left off, but there's doubts as to whether his 260 lb. frame and inconsistent delivery can support his 96 mph fastball and nasty breaking ball. His new teammate, Hiroki Kuroda, joins him in this All-Acquired rotation. According to SI's scout, Kuroda has 5 strong pitches: a fastball at 92-93, a good hard cutter, a split, a curve, and a slider - in other words, if you're pitching as him in a PS3 videogame, you'd better be prepared to get familiar with the R1 button.
Between that set of teammates in the rotation is Japanese import - and the AL West's "Star on the Rise" - Rangers new ace Yu Darvish. He's 6'5" and 215, but he throws an assortment of pitches in addition to throwing hard. The guy who should be closing out a fair amount of victories for Darvish, Joe Nathan, joins him in this pitching staff, but the former Twin will play second fiddle in the bullpen to former Athletic Andrew Bailey. The SI scout predicts that Bailey and new setup man Mark Melancon will do a good job replacing Jonathan Papelbon and Daniel Bard (who moves to the rotation) for the Red Sox, but you can never be sure how playing in Boston's pressure-cooker of an environment will affect any player's performance. Their third closer in the bullpen will be Sergio Santos, the second-year closer who moved from the White Sox to the Blue Jays, and who will hopefully rack up a few saves for my fantasy team.
The AL's entire starting outfield is linked to the Athletics in one way or another. Josh Willingham signed with the Twins after proving he can hit a lot of home runs in the pitcher friendly Oakland Coliseum in 2011. The A's traded with the Rockies for Seth Smith and signed Yoenis Cespedes out of Cuba (who has already contributed to the A's first win (and my first Fantasy home run) a couple days ago in Japan). Guys like Jamey Carroll and Nick Punto have a chance to spend a lot of time all over this infield, especially given that their starting 3B is slated to spend 2012 DH'ing with the Orioles (although I have a feeling he might spend some significant time at the hot corner due to Mark Reynolds's shaky defense).
Overall, the rankings of the entire projected lineup as it might appear in the pages of SI's preview issue (9 position players including DH, 2 bench, 5 starting pitchers, and 2 relief pitchers) add up to 3537. Lower numbers are better, since we're dealing with rankings, but I'll have no idea how this number compares to the NL team until I crunch some more numbers. Until then, try to enjoy the next 4 baseball-less days that we have to endure after we got our first brief, sweet taste of MLB 2012.
The top-ranked player to be moved (in fact, the second-top-ranked player anywhere, according to MLB.com) is Albert Pujols, who became the Angels' new first baseman. He's predicted to be the AL West's MVP by SI, even though he had career lows in 3 of the 4 major rate stats last year. The scout that covers the Angels in the magazine seems to think signing Pujols assures them a spot in the playoffs, even giving them the chance to "win a World Series or two." His new teammate C.J. Wilson is the third highest-ranked player on this roster at 51. The left-handed converted closer was the Rangers' ace last season, but he'll pitch third in a strong Angels rotation led by Jered Weaver and Dan Haren. (The SI scout pegs Wilson as the 4th best pitcher on the team, but I can't imagine either Ervin Santana or Jordan Walden ranked above him.)
The player ranked between the two best newest Angels will be the AL's DH: Prince Fielder (the AL Central's projected MVP). Acquired by the Tigers when it became apparent that Victor Martinez would miss the whole season, he's primed to continue his upward trend hitting behind Miguel Cabrera, and also based on how good his bat speed has looked this spring. Another DH candidate is the AL West's "Rookie to Watch" Jesus Montero. Ideally Montero would catch for this squad, cuz he has no other spot in the lineup, but he apparently has big problems with his footwork behind the plate. The AL's next-best hitter, 1B Carlos Pena, who returns to the Rays, also has no spot in the lineup, and will have to be content with sitting at third on the depth chart.
The AL's next-best pitcher was the centerpiece of the Montero trade, sophomore Michael Pineda. For the sake of my fantasy team, I'm hoping he'll pick up where his dominant rookie campaign left off, but there's doubts as to whether his 260 lb. frame and inconsistent delivery can support his 96 mph fastball and nasty breaking ball. His new teammate, Hiroki Kuroda, joins him in this All-Acquired rotation. According to SI's scout, Kuroda has 5 strong pitches: a fastball at 92-93, a good hard cutter, a split, a curve, and a slider - in other words, if you're pitching as him in a PS3 videogame, you'd better be prepared to get familiar with the R1 button.
Between that set of teammates in the rotation is Japanese import - and the AL West's "Star on the Rise" - Rangers new ace Yu Darvish. He's 6'5" and 215, but he throws an assortment of pitches in addition to throwing hard. The guy who should be closing out a fair amount of victories for Darvish, Joe Nathan, joins him in this pitching staff, but the former Twin will play second fiddle in the bullpen to former Athletic Andrew Bailey. The SI scout predicts that Bailey and new setup man Mark Melancon will do a good job replacing Jonathan Papelbon and Daniel Bard (who moves to the rotation) for the Red Sox, but you can never be sure how playing in Boston's pressure-cooker of an environment will affect any player's performance. Their third closer in the bullpen will be Sergio Santos, the second-year closer who moved from the White Sox to the Blue Jays, and who will hopefully rack up a few saves for my fantasy team.
The AL's entire starting outfield is linked to the Athletics in one way or another. Josh Willingham signed with the Twins after proving he can hit a lot of home runs in the pitcher friendly Oakland Coliseum in 2011. The A's traded with the Rockies for Seth Smith and signed Yoenis Cespedes out of Cuba (who has already contributed to the A's first win (and my first Fantasy home run) a couple days ago in Japan). Guys like Jamey Carroll and Nick Punto have a chance to spend a lot of time all over this infield, especially given that their starting 3B is slated to spend 2012 DH'ing with the Orioles (although I have a feeling he might spend some significant time at the hot corner due to Mark Reynolds's shaky defense).
Overall, the rankings of the entire projected lineup as it might appear in the pages of SI's preview issue (9 position players including DH, 2 bench, 5 starting pitchers, and 2 relief pitchers) add up to 3537. Lower numbers are better, since we're dealing with rankings, but I'll have no idea how this number compares to the NL team until I crunch some more numbers. Until then, try to enjoy the next 4 baseball-less days that we have to endure after we got our first brief, sweet taste of MLB 2012.
Saturday, March 10, 2012
Astrology Baseball: Earth Signs Bracket
Here it is, the final bracket! If you recall the intro post, you'll know that this bracket contains the strongest team in the skies - the very last team on the list. It's always good to save the best for last...
Although Capricorn has the second-fewest points of all the teams, those points are so top-heavy that they actually have one of the stronger lineups we've seen. Albert Pujols can anchor any offense, Michael Bourn is sure to score a lot of runs batting in front of him, and he's got some protection in his real-life former teammate Matt Holliday and power/speed threat Jeff Francoeur. Victor Martinez would have solidified the lineup if he weren't in line to miss all of 2012, but Hanley Ramirez could easily replace that production if he can mount a successful bounceback season. Cole Hamels leads a pitching staff that also includes Red Sox ace Jon Lester, Astros ace Wandy Rodriguez, Angels stalwart Ervin Santana, and young phenom Michael Pineda. Francisco Rodriguez still presumably has talent to close games, despite the fact that he'll be spending 2012 racking up holds rather than saves.
At first glance, you would think Taurus's strength is their pitching, what with Roy Halladay, Josh Beckett, and Chris Carpenter filling the 1-2-3 spots in the rotation. But when you look at a lineup that includes Adrian Gonzalez, Prince Fielder, Josh Hamilton, Carlos Beltran, and Jayson Werth, you may be forced to change your tune. After bounceback candidate Joakim Soria, the bullpen features a couple of former closers: Neftali Feliz, who's moving to the rotation, and Francisco Cordero, who will be setting up for the Blue Jays, despite his strong 2011. They've also got a couple of breakout candidates in Matt Wieters and David Freese, and a very talented super-utility type in Emilio Bonifacio. I'll cap off this Taurus profile with Weird Al's faux-roscope from his song "Your Horoscope For Today"
It's no surprise that the sign with the most players also has the most total points scored. Their outfield is absolutely sick, with two MVP runners-up in Matt Kemp and Jacoby Ellsbury, and Justin Upton who finished 4th in the NL voting. They've also got a fair amount of power and speed in their 4th and 5th outfielders Chris Young and Brett Gardner. 1B Joey Votto could go toe-to-toe with any of the other three All-Star first basemen in the bracket, and having Gaby Sanchez backing him up isn't too shabby at all. The middle infield has two solid starters and two solid backups: Neil Walker and Rickie Weeks at 2B, and Elvis Andrus and Alexei Ramirez at SS. Weaknesses do exist at C and 3B where Rod Barajas /Nick Hundley and Ryan Roberts are the best choices, but overall there's more than enough offense to go around.
Cliff Lee is the staff ace, which means each of the three Earth Bracket starting staffs are led by a Phillies pitcher. Dan Haren could be an ace on most clubs and David Price started the All-Star game just one year ago. Gio Gonzalez's presence means the rotation will have more lefties than righties - a rare advantage indeed. They do have a slight weakness in the back-end of the bullpen with untested closer Ryan Madson, but he'll have plenty of support in lefties Antonio Bastardo and Sean Marshall, and Matt Capps, the Twins closer, will also be in the reliever mix. To close out this esteemed project of mine, I once again leave you with what Weird Al has to say about the Virgo sign:
Capricorn Goats
Although Capricorn has the second-fewest points of all the teams, those points are so top-heavy that they actually have one of the stronger lineups we've seen. Albert Pujols can anchor any offense, Michael Bourn is sure to score a lot of runs batting in front of him, and he's got some protection in his real-life former teammate Matt Holliday and power/speed threat Jeff Francoeur. Victor Martinez would have solidified the lineup if he weren't in line to miss all of 2012, but Hanley Ramirez could easily replace that production if he can mount a successful bounceback season. Cole Hamels leads a pitching staff that also includes Red Sox ace Jon Lester, Astros ace Wandy Rodriguez, Angels stalwart Ervin Santana, and young phenom Michael Pineda. Francisco Rodriguez still presumably has talent to close games, despite the fact that he'll be spending 2012 racking up holds rather than saves.
Taurus Bulls
At first glance, you would think Taurus's strength is their pitching, what with Roy Halladay, Josh Beckett, and Chris Carpenter filling the 1-2-3 spots in the rotation. But when you look at a lineup that includes Adrian Gonzalez, Prince Fielder, Josh Hamilton, Carlos Beltran, and Jayson Werth, you may be forced to change your tune. After bounceback candidate Joakim Soria, the bullpen features a couple of former closers: Neftali Feliz, who's moving to the rotation, and Francisco Cordero, who will be setting up for the Blue Jays, despite his strong 2011. They've also got a couple of breakout candidates in Matt Wieters and David Freese, and a very talented super-utility type in Emilio Bonifacio. I'll cap off this Taurus profile with Weird Al's faux-roscope from his song "Your Horoscope For Today"
Taurus: You will never find true happiness - whatcha gonna do, cry about it?
The stars predict tomorrow you'll wake up, do a bunch of stuff, and then go back to sleep.
Virgo Maidens
It's no surprise that the sign with the most players also has the most total points scored. Their outfield is absolutely sick, with two MVP runners-up in Matt Kemp and Jacoby Ellsbury, and Justin Upton who finished 4th in the NL voting. They've also got a fair amount of power and speed in their 4th and 5th outfielders Chris Young and Brett Gardner. 1B Joey Votto could go toe-to-toe with any of the other three All-Star first basemen in the bracket, and having Gaby Sanchez backing him up isn't too shabby at all. The middle infield has two solid starters and two solid backups: Neil Walker and Rickie Weeks at 2B, and Elvis Andrus and Alexei Ramirez at SS. Weaknesses do exist at C and 3B where Rod Barajas /Nick Hundley and Ryan Roberts are the best choices, but overall there's more than enough offense to go around.
Cliff Lee is the staff ace, which means each of the three Earth Bracket starting staffs are led by a Phillies pitcher. Dan Haren could be an ace on most clubs and David Price started the All-Star game just one year ago. Gio Gonzalez's presence means the rotation will have more lefties than righties - a rare advantage indeed. They do have a slight weakness in the back-end of the bullpen with untested closer Ryan Madson, but he'll have plenty of support in lefties Antonio Bastardo and Sean Marshall, and Matt Capps, the Twins closer, will also be in the reliever mix. To close out this esteemed project of mine, I once again leave you with what Weird Al has to say about the Virgo sign:
All Virgos are extremely friendly and intelligent - except for you.
Expect a big surprise today, when you wind up with your head impaled upon a stick.
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