Wednesday, October 24, 2018

World Series 2018 Rosters - Dodgers Offense

Welcome back to the second installment of this sneak peak into my Fantasy Point By Player Database, featuring the visiting team in the World Series, the Los Angeles Dodgers. While this is scheduled to go up prior to Game 2 of the Fall Classic, in which LA will be looking to even the series, most of the commentary was written prior to Game 1, so some of these storylines will have been advanced or altered a bit. The order of the players is based on the most common Dodgers lineups throughout the 2018 postseason so far.



Did you know that out of all the offensive stars on the 2017 Dodgers, Joc Pederson was the team's top fantasy scorer during last year's World Series? You would have known that if you saw the first and only part of my Fantasy Astrology World Series Recap from last offseason. Yung Joc's star has fallen a bit since his All-Star rookie season and his even stronger sophomore campaign, as he's been shifted from center field to left (he was worth more than one defensive win BELOW replacement level in an abbreviated 2017), and basically relegated to a platoon role (he's got a career .842 OPS against right-handed pitchers, but only .583 against lefties). However, you can't discount a return of the #Joctober excitement that came from three home runs in last year's Fall Classic.


Rather than continue with the Dodgers' projected starting lineup - because with all manager Dave Roberts's roster machinations, any projections are futile - I'd like to jump to Pederson's leadoff/left field platoon mate Chris Taylor. Taylor had three years in the big leagues before his first qualifying season (at least 200 plate appearances) where he mostly served as a little-used utility piece with the Mariners. But last year's breakout performance saw him qualify at three different positions (center field, left field, and second base), hit 21 homers with an .850 OPS, and take home NLCS co-MVP honors against the Cubs. CT3 spent the majority of his 2018 season at shortstop, filling in for the injured Corey Seager (until reinforcements arrived on the trade market), but in the playoffs he's shuttled between LF and 2B, mostly against left handed pitchers.


We've heard so much about Justin Turner's historic level of excellence when it comes to clutch hitting in the playoffs, that it's easy to forget his unremarkable start as a utility infielder for the Mets. Well, actually he had a cup of coffee with the Orioles before the season where he was picked off waivers by New York NL, but he spent most of his minor league development in the Reds farm system. It wasn't until he signed with Los Angeles as a free agent that he really took off with the bat and the glove and turned himself into a legit postseason hero. A series of injuries has kept RedTurn2 from putting up the full season fantasy point totals that he truly deserves, but he does have an All-Star appearance (in 2017) and two top-10 MVP voting finishes (2016 and '17) to his credit, in addition to sharing NLCS co-MVP honors with Taylor last year.


What doesn't appear on this database is the two years Max Muncy spent with the Oakland Athletics (2014-15), where he hit .195 across an average of 120 plate appearances per year. After being released and spending 2017 in the Dodgers' minor league system, he inexplicably broke out with 35 home runs and a .973 OPS this year. The left handed hitting Muncy has been aggressively platooned over the course of the postseason, despite putting up an .891 OPS in 119 PA against lefties this year... but who can fathom the strategic mind of Dave Roberts?


Starting at first base against left handed pitchers is celebrated postseason veteran David Freese, although he spent most of 2018 acting as a platoon partner at third base for Colin Moran in Pittsburgh. Freese took home both NLCS and World Series MVP honors during the Cardinals' championship season in 2011, and he returned to the playoffs in the three subsequent years - two with St. Louis and one following his trade to the Angels. His usage in the 2018 NLCS has been brief and curious (i.e. being substituted out after hitting a home run and a double and driving in two runs), but his veteran leadership is a plus, whether on the field or in the dugout.


Another midseason acquisition, Manny Machado to the Dodgers was a widely anticipated transaction, given both the early season-ending elbow injury to starting shortstop Corey Seager and Machado's insistence (and the Orioles' acquiescence) on moving from third base this season. In fact, very few people were surprised when news broke during the All-Star break (where Manny was enjoying his fourth trip to the Midsummer Classic) that he would be on his way to Los Angeles to finish the season. While El Ministro's defense at shortstop is questionable at best, he improved since coming to LA (1.2 defense-only-WAR with LAD, compared to -1.2 dWAR with BAL), along with continuing his career-best pace, in both fantasy points and offense-only-WAR. A lot has been made of Machado's quirky (some would say "dirty") style of play, and how that might impact his impending trip to free agency, but for the next week, his focus will (should) be solely on securing a championship in his third trip to the postseason.


Cody Bellinger followed up his Rookie of the Year showing in 2017 with an NLCS MVP award this year, thanks mostly to two key hits (a game-winner in the 13th inning of Game 4 and a go-ahead two-run shot in Game 7). While Codylove is primarily a first baseman, he can also play a pretty decent center field due to his athleticism, which in turn allowed the Dodgers to get Max Muncy's bat into the lineup with more regularity... at least against right handed pitchers. On a fun sidenote, Cody's father Clay Bellinger had a brief career as a utility player for the Yankees (from 1999 thru 2001) and the Angels (in 2002), which means that every MLB team on which a Bellinger played has reached the World Series (h/t to the official MLB Instagram account for that factoid).


Like him or not, it's hard to argue that Yasiel Puig is not one of the most eminently watchable players in MLB right now. Whether it's bat flips, bat licks, or bat breaking-over-his-knees, the high-octane Cuban always plays with his emotions on full display. This has not always worked in the Wild Horse's favor, as his MLB performance has been about as uneven as his temperament, with flashes of brilliance mixed in with prolonged slumps and even a brief demotion to the minor leagues in 2016, which put his future with the Dodgers in doubt. But with two more years left on his contract and some big numbers in the 2018 postseason so far, it appears as though the Dodgers still view Puig as their friend for the foreseeable future.


Versatility has been the calling card of Enrique "Kiké" Hernandez since he first made it to the big leagues in 2014, a year he split between the Astros and the Marlins before his first qualifying season with the Dodgers in '15. In fact, Hernandez has appeared at every position except catcher in his career, including a third of an inning on the mound... in which he gave up two walks and a three-run homer, but it's the thought that counts. In 2018, the fan-favorite Kiké added power hitting to his resumé, with 21 homers, solidifying him as one of the few players to be immune from Dave Roberts' frantic platooning, as he's started all but two of LA's playoff games this year.


For the last two years (and for two cups of coffee before that), Austin Barnes has served the Dodgers strictly in the role of backup catcher... until the playoffs start. I don't know what happens to Yasmani Grandal when the calendar flips to October, but despite very solid regular season numbers (see below), he just can't seem to put things together on the game's biggest stage. Not that Barnes lights the world on fire with his own production, but he's been anointed the catcher of choice for roughly 1 and 2/3's postseasons now.


A prodigal longtime Dodger stalwart, Matt Kemp returned to his former team almost by accident this offseason. The homegrown Oklahoman left after nine seasons (eight qualifying) with the Dodgers, which included two All-Star berths (2011 and 2012), two Gold Glove/Silver Slugger combo years (2009 and 2011), and a near MVP award (that great 2011 season). Matt then spent three years split almost 60/40 with the Padres and the Braves, before returning to Los Angeles in a contract-restructuring trade (a very different type of roster machination than the ones Dave Roberts is responsible for). After having to win a spot in Spring Training, all Kemp did was make his third All-Star team and slug 21 homers, before suffering a second-half dropoff that has kept him out of the starting lineup for most of the postseason.


The second, and less impactful, half of the Los Angeles's middle infield makeover came in the form of Brian Dozier from the Twins, formerly one of the game's top power hitting second baseman. The timing wasn't great, as he put up his worst oWAR total since becoming a regular in 2013 and has been relegated mostly to a bench role against lefties, he has seen his fair share of pinch hitting appearances, and his veteran leadership is surely much appreciated, especially with Chase Utley off the roster.


Yasmani Grandal had a strange path to the majors, as reflected in his "Developed" status line: CIN*/sdp. The capitals in Cincinnati's abbreviation means that he got the majority of his minor league development in the Reds organization, but the "*" means that he never saw the majors with them. San Diego has no asterisk (i.e. he made his debut with that team), but the Padres are in lowercase, indicating that Grandal didn't need as much seasoning with his acquired team. Who knows if this has anything to do with the reasons why the Yazmanian Devil seems to struggle so much in the playoffs, but it's food for thought nonetheless.

No comments:

Post a Comment