While Aries and Virgo were locks for the Fire and Earth divisions, respectively, the other two were each in a dead heat. Over in the Water division, Cancer and Scorpio were sporting identical 13-7 records, while in a completely unexpected situation, four-time champion Libra had the same .500 record as Gemini in the Air division. It didn't help matters that the former two teams both won their final matchups, while the latter two teams both lost theirs. Thus, half of this league's postseason participants were determined by ESPN.com's proprietary "Points For" and "Points Against" system, which crowned Cancer (my home sign) and Gemini (a first time playoff team) as the winners of their divisions. So with these matchups underway, let's check out the lineups of these four teams and go over what changes I made (as league commissioner) heading into the year-end tournament.
Back during Spring Training, I looked at the four Fantasy Astrology playoff teams from the previous year, starting with defending champion Aries. While the Rams managed the league's best record, their playoff lineup somewhat remarkably has only three players from their projected season opener: Lorenzo Cain, Nolan Arenado, and Alex Bregman (who has already insured shortstop eligibility for next season). Buster Posey (1,017 points on the year, 9.7 points per game, as of the start of the playoffs) was the starting catcher until he underwent a planned season ending hip surgery at the end of last month. All-Star Jed Lowrie has stayed hot all season, supplanting the recently traded (and until-recently injured) Daniel Murphy (723 / 10.6). Travis Shaw has been on a tear recently, even performing better than fellow third baseman Arenado in the last month, but I couldn't justify subbing out such a proven performer - instead Shaw takes over from Starlin Castro (1396 / 10.3), who had been occupying the DH spot.
The 10-day DL placement of Chris Sale (2,207 / 96.0) definitely hurts this pitching rotation in a big way, but the return of fellow Red Sock Eduardo Rodriguez from his injury helps make up for the loss. Likewise, when Kenta Maeda (1,047 / 37.4) was demoted to the bullpen, his Dodgers teammate Hyun-Jin Ryu was ready to step in. Also, Anthony DeSclafani has been pitching better of late than Zach Eflin (951 / 47.6) and Jake Odorizzi (927 / 33.1), despite those two putting up better numbers over the course of the season. With the trade of Keone Kela (1,253 / 23.2) to the Pirates, he saw his save chances evaporate, and thus his fantasy usefulness. I picked Brad Hand to fill his RP2 spot, despite the presence of Scorpio closer Cody Allen on the Indians, over the Yankees' closer committee comprised of two Aries relievers to fill in for the injured Aroldis Chapman : David Robertson (1,000 / 16.9) and Dellin Betances (853 / 15.0).
Virgo has not had quite as much turnover as Aries compared to their preseason projections, with just five position players from the Maidens' projected starting nine in the playoff lineup. Most importantly, they had two key Astros players back from injury: center fielder George Springer (displacing Brett Gardner - 1,374 / 11.1) and shortstop Carlos Correa (coming in for utility player Chris Taylor - 1,339 / 10.1). Two other shortstops on the roster actually had better overall production than Correa - Marcus Semien (1,479 / 10.9) and Andrelton Simmons (1,398 / 11.2), but Correa definitely has the best upside when healthy. Virgo's famed first base trio of Paul Goldschmidt, Freddie Freeman, and Joey Votto (1,380 / 11.1) is now down to two, as Votto has both missed time due to injury and also clearly lagged behind his counterparts. While Justin Upton (1,553 / 12.4) isn't technically on the disabled list, he did recently suffer a concussion, so he may be eligible to return when the matchup reaches its second week.
The biggest loss from the season opening pitching staff was David Price (1,581 / 60.8), who was day-to-day when I was putting together these lineups, after his wrist was hit by a batted ball. He's another candidate to come back if I decide to make lineup changes midway through this matchup. Cardinals ace Carlos Martinez (913 / 38.0) is in a similar situation to Kenta Maeda, re: being moved to the bullpen, but another pitcher who calls Missouri home, Jakob Junis of the Royals, has been pitching well enough of late to take his spot. And with Gio Gonzalez (753 / 27.9) slumping lately, journeyman Edwin Jackson rounds out this rotation for the playoffs.
The last step of my monthly "lineup rebalancing" process - after I put together the highest scoring lineup based on full season fantasy points, then look at how each player performed over the last 30 days and adjust for slumps or hot streaks - is to check the waiver wire to see if it's worth adding anyone who was left off the season opening roster. These factors came into play with the Cancer pitching rotation, so I will start with that part of the Decapods roster. While reinstalling Stephen Strasburg into the rotation after he came back from injury was a no brainer (replacing the now-injured Tyler Skaggs (984 / 46.9)), Lucas Giolito and Wei-Yin Chen weren't even on the team prior to the playoffs. But with Jaime Barria (923 / 44.0) struggling of late and Mike Montgomery (676 / 19.9) potentially moving back to the bullpen, I decided to go with the hot hands.
Not much has changed on the offensive side, except for DJ LeMahieu returning from injury to supplant fill-in Ian Kinsler (1,195 / 10.8). There is a bit of inefficiency what with Nelson Cruz (1,615 / 13.2) only eligible for DH - which is currently being held down by Trea Turner - although it's questionable whether Cruz would even be the best fit for an outfield spot given Cody Bellinger's newfound eligibility and Shin-Soo Choo's (1,630 / 12.6) resurgent season. The big question mark on this roster is Shohei Ohtani, whose fantasy point total has been a bit of a mystery all season. ESPN claims that he only gets credited with either batting or pitching points (not both) depending on his position in the lineup, but the interface shows the same point total whether you plug him in as a pitcher or a batter: 1,538 points and 19.0 PPG. According to my calculations, that is in fact the total of his batting and pitching points - 974 / 12.0 for the former and 564 / 56.4 for the latter - but it's hard to say how the points are actually being calculated in a game setting. Of course now that Ohtani's storyline has ended in the MOST PREDICTABLE WAY POSSIBLE (i.e. Tommy John Surgery), we won't have to figure out this issue until 2020 at the earliest.
When you look at the Gemini pitching staff, it's no mystery why the Twins have forced their way into the playoffs (albeit with a sub-.500 win percentage). Any rotation led by NL Cy Young candidates Jacob deGrom and Aaron Nola will rack up some mondo fantasy points, and that's before factoring in the streaking Mike Fiers and Zack Wheeler, plus rookie sensation Dereck Rodriguez, a group that pushes standout performers Jose Berrios (1,513 / 54.0), Andrew Heaney (1,242 / 49.7), Sean Newcomb (1,234 / 47.5), and Vince Velasquez (1,124 / 41.6) to the bench. And with a legitimate two-headed closer monster of Craig Kimbrel and Brad Boxberger (who also has the most creative Player's Weekend nickname by far), it's almost enough to make you forget that Andrew Miller (259 / 9.6) has been a shade of his former self this year and that Hector Neris (571 / 13.0) lost his hold on the Phillies ninth inning job. And that's not even counting rookies Joey Lucchesi (970 / 44.1), Freddy Peralta (713 / 50.9), and Shane Bieber (711 / 47.4), who I picked up off the waiver wire JUST IN CASE.
Speaking of the waiver wire, adding Kendrys Morales and his suddenly hot bat is the only thing that gives this lineup a semblance of respectability. When the most impactful substitution is to bring in Harrison Bader for Joey Rickard (453 / 7.2) in the center field spot, you know you're not dealing with many world beaters on the offensive side of things. Sure Yoan Moncada (1,266 / 9.8) has been quite good, despite a recent slump, and the team does have two outfielders who are either injured or not performing at present - Avisail Garcia (781 / 10.4) and Corey Dickerson (1,226 / 10.4), respectively - and they would look a lot stronger if Justin Bour (1,126 / 9.2) wasn't relegated to a bench role with his recent trade. But it's still a bit of a surprise to see them battling for the championship given the talent on hand.
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