Preliminary All-Star Ballot 2017

While watching MLB.tv's free game yesterday - a Florida Fight between the Marlins and the Rays - I saw Miami's closer AJ Ramos do several promos reminding fans to fill out their 2017 All-Star Ballots. If you're like me and think that one month into a six-month season is a bit too soon to determine who should represent their leagues in the midsummer display of baseball excellence, then you'll refrain from casting too many votes at this juncture (each individual is allowed 35 total votes, but the new rules state that you can vote no more than five times in a 24-hour period). However, I had just taken a statistical snapshot of the most fantasy relevant players for the monthly lineup rebalancing of my Fantasy Astrology project, so I thought I'd fill out a preliminary ballot with the top performers thru the month of April. Here's the NL team first:

Going in order of fantasy points scored, we find three members of the red-hot Washington Nationals, led by MLB's overall offensive point leader Bryce Harper, who should have no problem reprising his role from last year as the NL's starting right fielder. (The only higher scoring player in 2017 so far is Astros ace Dallas Keuchel, who has put up 688 points with a whopping 114.7 points per game, but we all know that fans have no say in All-Star pitchers.) To see Ryan Zimmerman as the next name on this list is a complete surprise, given how his struggles last year (a career-low .642 OPS) prompted the Nats to bring in a potential left-handed-hitting platoon partner for him this offseason in Adam Lind. Zimm's 1.345 OPS in 2017 is bound to fall back to earth, but his 11 home runs, 29 RBI, and .420 average (all four of which are league-leading figures) put him on top of a very talented crop of NL first basemen. I would argue that two 2016 All-Star reserves deserve to start this time around: Daniel Murphy, who continues the hot-hitting ways that saw him fall one percentage point shy of a batting title last year, despite spending most of Spring Training on Team USA's bench in the WBC, and Matt Wieters, the only player on either of my ballots who changed teams during the last offseason.

Another National who arguably deserves a starting spot is shortstop Trea Turner (306 points / 20.4 PPG), who very well might have eclipsed 2016 Rookie of the Year Corey Seager's point total had he not missed some time already this year with a hamstring strain. But interestingly enough, it's multi-positional threat Chris Owings (391 / 15.6) who is right on Seager's heels in terms of fantasy points, although the humidor they recently installed in Phoenix's Chase Field shows that we may have to apply the same offensive caveat to Diamondbacks as we do to those who play their home games at Coors Field in Denver. Speaking of which, Rockies Charlie Blackmon and Nolan Arenado have earned spots on my ballot, but while Blackmon looks fully deserving, the difference between 2017 Team USA member Arenado and 2016 NL MVP / All-Star starter Kris Bryant (399 / 16.6) looks fairly negligible when we account for the Coors effect. Ryan Braun rounds out my outfield picks, with his (extremely) closest competition being Diamondbacks center fielder A.J. Pollock (413 / 16.5), who hasn't lost a step after his mostly-lost 2016 season.

It's no surprise to see Mike Trout leading all AL batters in fantasy points, as it was no surprise to see him start in center field for the AL in last year's All-Star Game. The only other repeat starter I have on my AL ballot is catcher Salvador Perez, which is ironic because there's probably no player in the majors who would better deserve a prolonged rest in the middle of the season, due to his high volume of games caught and the injury he sustained while playing for his native Venezuela in the WBC. Sticking with WBC participants, Puerto Rican shortstop Francisco Lindor has been on fire for the Indians, outpacing his nearest competition (Elvis Andrus, 283 / 11.8) by more than 150 points already this year. The Dominican Republic's Nelson Cruz is far and away the top DH candidate, as he's seemingly ready to take up the mantle of his retired countryman David Ortiz. And Cruz's WBC teammate Carlos Santana has distinguished himself as the top first baseman in the AL so far, despite spending most of his 2016 as Cleveland's DH.

I'd like to take this opportunity to say a little bit about the discrepancy in first base talent across the two leagues. Santana's 306 points are tops among AL first basemen, with Mitch Moreland and Logan Morrison coming in second, both with 271 points (with 11.3 and 10.8 points per game, respectively). Meanwhile, over in the NL, you have to go nine (9!) deep before you get to someone with the same point total as the AL leader: after the aforementioned Ryan Zimmerman, we have Korean re-import Eric Thames (546 / 22.8), Canadian-American Freddie Freeman (525 / 22.8), Team USA benchwarmer Paul Goldschmidt (494 / 18.3), last year's NL All-Star DH Wil Myers (429 / 15.9), write-in candidate Mark Reynolds (411 / 15.8), Canadian-Canadian Joey Votto (398 / 16.6), Italian-American Anthony Rizzo (394 / 16.4), and burgeoning left fielder Brandon Belt (306 / 12.2). I can't account for this talent gap, especially since the NL is supposed to be a pitcher's league, what with the absence of the DH and all, but it's something to look into as the season progresses. Now back to my AL ballot.

The only rookie on either of my ballots, towering Yankees right fielder Aaron Judge, is coincidentally the AL's #2 point scorer behind Trout. After him is long-vaunted third base prospect Miguel Sano (he topped out at #4 overall prior to the 2014 season, according to MLB.com), who finally looks to be breaking out now that the Twins have abandoned the experiment of using him in the outfield. If I were voting today, I would check the box for Yankees second baseman Starlin Castro, because he's the top performer among the available choices (although I could see last year's starter Jose Altuve (330 /13.8) eclipsing him statistically by the time most of the votes come in). However, if we were going by actual 2017 playing time, rather than where players appear on the ballot, I would definitely vote for Jose Ramirez (404 / 16.8), who has spent the majority of this season so far at the keystone filling in for the injured Jason Kipnis. And even though I'm normally totally biased towards the Oakland Athletics, my decision to round out my AL outfield with A's left fielder Khris Davis is completely justified by the numbers, as he currently leads the AL with 10 homers. Although if breakout Seattle outfielder Mitch Haniger (402 / 19.1) hadn't recently gone down with an oblique strain, I would have had to deal with a big-time crisis of conscience...


So while I'm not casting any of my 35 All-Star votes this early in the season, the above players are who I would have voted for if I wanted to be hasty. Nevertheless, I think it's a worthwhile exercise to note the top performers at the start of the voting season in order to keep track of whether the same players can maintain the same level of excellence as we approach a more reasonable All-Star voting time. Until then, I'll continue to watch as many of MLB's free games as I can, where I will hopefully see All-Star voting promos from more teams.