For a few years now, the ESPN magazine has eschewed projected lineups from their baseball preview, so I haven't had the chance to compare the thoughts of my two most trusted baseball authorities. But this year, ESPN.com has called on the bloggers of the Sweet Spot network to post their projected lineups online. I've been diligently following both publications (while also doing some of my own analysis) and what follows are the notable discrepancies between the two. I'm starting with the West divisions of both leagues since two of their representatives are kicking off the season this evening.
AL WEST
Los Angeles Angels
Texas Rangers
I'm putting these teams in order based on Sports Illustrated's projected finish, but I'd like to note that ESPN has my A's finishing in second place. There are two discrepancies in this team, and both have to do with differing philosophies regarding injured players. SI has the rookie Martin Perez listed as Texas's 5th starter even though he will be out of action for a while after breaking his arm in training camp. ESPN has in his place Nick Tepesch, the organization's #18 ranked prospect (according to MLB.com) and a non-roster invitee this year who split time with the Rangers' A+ and AA teams in 2012, just his second year in professional ball. In a flip-flop of those philosophies, SI has Tanner Scheppers as the second bullpen arm behind Joe Nathan, while ESPN has another injured hurler Joakim Soria. Scheppers made his major league debut last year and posted a pedestrian 4.45 ERA, but he's still just 25 years old and a rookie. Soria made a name for himself as one of the best relievers in the game while with the Royals, but missed all of 2012 due to Tommy John surgery and won't be back with the big leagues until at least the end of May.
Infield depth is the first issue here for the A's - too much depth that is. They have so many capable players that the two publications are at odds with who will start and who will be on the bench. They agree that new addition Jed Lowrie will play the infield every day, but whether it's at second base (leaving converted catcher Josh Donaldson to man the hot corner) or third base (with Scott Sizemore at second coming off a lost season due to a freak knee injury) is anybody's guess. BREAKING NEWS: The A's placed Japanese import Hiroyuki Nakajima on the DL yesterday with a strained hamstring, which allows Lowrie to start at shortstop and opens the door for both aforementioned players. Young pitching depth is another issue, as SI favors sophomore A.J. Griffin while ESPN goes with rookie Dan Straily. In reality, both will open the season in the rotation, as veteran Bartolo Colon still has some suspension to serve for PED use.
Aside from drastic differences in the projected batting order (which I will ignore for now, since batting order is so nebulous throughout the season), bench and bullpen were the only discrepancies. ESPN gave the second bench spot (behind Raul Ibanez) to backup catcher Kelly Shoppach while SI thought it was more important to showcase fifth outfielder Jason Bay. Bay has a lot to prove, coming off a renegotiated early exit from his contract with the Mets, but Shoppach will likely see a lot of playing time due to the well-documented defensive woes of former catching prospect Jesus Montero. The two publications disagree which rookie reliever (Stephen Pryor or Carter Capps) will back up closer Tom Wilhelmsen - although I would personally tab lefty Charlie Furbush as the M's most talented RP2 option.
Houston Astros
What a disaster this team will be, huh? The SI article profiling the American League basically just went on and on about how embarrassed AL GMs would be if their clubs went .500 or worse against Houston. This team is so bad that they signed Ronny Cedeno to be their starting shortstop after he was released from a minor league deal with the Cardinals. Only SI got this right, though, as ESPN still had Tyler Greene slotted in there, who was released upon Cedeno's signing. ESPN also had J.D. Martinez as the starting right fielder (who is left out of SI's lineup), which will turn out to be true, only because prospect Fernando Martinez went on the DL yesterday with a strained oblique.
NL WEST
Showing classic bias toward last year's world champions, SI projects this team as the first place finishers while ESPN favors the recently free-spending Dodgers. I will say that the Giants are a much more consistent ballclub, with their playoff lineup and rotation returning intact and the same on paper across both publications. The bench is a point of contention, as SI thinks that newcomers Tony Abreu (IF) and Andres Torres (OF) will have more impact on the big club than backup catcher Hector Sanchez. They are also in disagreement on the primary lefty setup man: SI says Javier Lopez while ESPN has Jeremy Affeldt. Personally, I might have picked fireballer Santiago Casilla as their RP2, seeing as he did close quite a few games for San Francisco last year, but what do I know...
Los Angeles Dodgers
The boys in blue spent a ton of money stockpiling starting pitchers, and the only issue these two publications have is who will round out that rotation. SI says it will be new Korean right-hander Ryu Hyun-Jin while ESPN has its money on lefty Chris Capuano, a holdover from last year. Whoever loses this battle will join other starters from last year Aaron Harang and Ted Lilly (when healthy) in a very good, versatile, and expensive bullpen.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Both ESPN and SI have exactly the same projected lineup, rotation, and projected finish for this team. Well done, fellas. Way to be on the same page.
Who will be this team's fifth starter? Will it be new addition from the A's Tyson Ross (he of the negative fantasy points in the bigs last year, despite a pretty good performance in AAA)? Or will it be the main haul from the Cubs in the trade for Anthony Rizzo last year Andrew Cashner (he spent most of last year coming out of the bullpen, possibly to build up arm strength after missing most of 2011 with a shoulder injury)? Who can know? SI also left outfielder Chris Denorfia off the projected bench, which I took issue with seeing as I see him getting more playing time than Jesus Guzman in the very likely eventuality that Carlos Quentin goes down with some kind of injury.
Colorado Rockies
Another fifth starter question! Could it be lefty Drew Pomeranz (acquired from the Indians in the Ubaldo Jimenez deal)? Or how about veteran Jon Garland (who didn't pitch at all in any level in 2012 due to shoulder surgery)? Here's a hint: On the same day that the Rox signed Garland last week, they optioned Pomeranz to AAA Colorado Springs. That doesn't necessarily prove anything (the Mariners optioned their 5th starter, Erasmo Ramirez, two days later and the Rangers aren't even going to call up Tepesch from the minors until his first scheduled start comes around next week, despite naming him the fifth starter in the press) and in a very weak Colorado rotation, I can see them both getting plenty of work.
So who will it be next? The Central divisions? The East divisions? Leave your suggestions in the comments section and that's who I'll do next! I'm just so excited for baseball!
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