Thoughts About Primaries...

Last night, CNN hosted the final debate to take place before the Florida Republican Primary, which is on Tuesday 1/31.  The debate featured the four remaining candidates: Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, and Rick Santorum - a pool that has been significantly narrowed over the previous three contests in the primary process.  By all accounts Romney, the once and future frontrunner, stood his ground against Newt Gingrich, who is generally considered the better debater.  Each candidate's performance in the debate says a lot about their chances of winning the Republican nomination for President, and about their chances of challenging incumbent Barack Obama.  But rather than picking apart their responses to questions about the hot-button issues or analyzing their speech patterns and facial expressions for insight into such crucial intangibles as confidence and leadership qualities, let's take a look at how they all got here.

Mitt Romney and Ron Paul are the only two holdover candidates from the 2008 Republican primaries.  Last election cycle, Romney had some epic clashes with eventual nominee John McCain during the debates, and eventually dropped out of the race in early February.  The former Massachusetts Governor can be recognized by his decidedly Mormon family (an endless stream of smiling, healthy-looking offspring, all dressed in white) and his eerily Manchurian Candidate-esque appearance and mannerisms.  Ron Paul resembles your friend's hip grandpa: he's the oldest candidate on the ballot (even a year older than McCain, although he doesn't look it), he wears a lot of sweaters, and he's never shy about rambling on about his crazy ideas.  The former gynecologist's politics lean more towards Libertarian than Republican, but the GOP has been kind to him during his 20+ years serving in the House of Representatives for Texas, so he remains on the party's ticket.

In his first ever presidential campaign, Newt Gingrich was surging after his double digit victory in last weekend's South Carolina primary, but after last night's debate, pundits are quick to announce that his momentum is waning.  Gingrich served as speaker of the House during the Clinton administration, and is quick to take a bunch of credit for the period of peacetime and economic expansion that Clinton presided over during that time, the longest in the country's history.  Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum is still hanging in this race, refusing to throw in the towel mostly based on his win in Iowa.  He won by just 34 votes over Romney, and the contest would have instantly been headed to recount-town were it anything but a non-binding caucus.

The most talked-about candidate who didn't even make it to the primaries has to be Herman Cain, he of the questionable sexual history and policy plans taken straight out of a videogame.  Michele Bachmann took her haunting stare out of the race after Iowa, and Rick Perry and Jon Huntsman followed suit after New Hampshire (despite the latter candidate garnering a strong 3rd place finish with 17% of the vote).  Huntsman - who was a member of a band called The Wizards while growing up in Palo Alto, CA - endorsed fellow Mormon Mitt Romney, while Texas Governor Perry endorsed Gingrich, setting the stage for their all-out battle in South Carolina.

Pundits claimed that South Carolina primary voters pride themselves on voting for the eventual nominee.  With Romney looking like the clear favorite leaving New Hampshire, it's interesting that they didn't jump on the bandwagon and effectively wrap this thing up before Florida.  The fact that they picked Gingrich says a lot about the importance of debates and drives home the point that a poor or effective performance can make or break an election - as if Nixon didn't teach us that lesson effectively enough back in 1960.  But with Romney leading in delegates and in the polls, coupled with his triumph at last night's debates, puts him in a pretty darn good position going forward.  That is, unless the Ron Paul Revolution spreads across the nation (as we all know is inevitable, even if it takes a different name).  If you live in Florida, make sure to vote this coming Tuesday.  And if you hail from anywhere else, just clap your hands if you believe...