Adam Wainwright's Injury, and what it means for pitchers everywhere

It's official: Adam Wainwright, arguably one of the top 3 pitchers in all of baseball, will be shut down for the entire 2011 season following Tommy John ligament replacement surgery. This is a sad story, no matter what Jonny Gomes may think of it. Nobody likes to see young athletes in the prime of their physical careers cut down due to injury, predictable or otherwise.

A number things come to mind with this news; among them how it affects the Cardinals' chance to win the NL Central, and how that in turn affects Albert Pujols's contract status for next season. For the contemplative among us, it brings up myriad questions about Wainwright himself - how old is he? (29) What's his previous injury history? (One 2 1/2 month stint in 2008.) And what about his development could have caused this flameout after 2 absolutely dominant seasons?

We can shed some light on the last question by referring to an article by Craig Wright found in this year's Hardball Times Annual, which I picked up recently in preparation for the new season. In order to understand this piece, I need to first say a few words about how pitchers are commonly handled and Wright's radical (rational?) theories about how they should be handled.

These days, you hear a lot about pitch counts - i.e. for individual games. The agreed-upon limit for pitches a starting pitcher can throw in any given game is set somewhere around 100. Except in the case of potential no-hitters or shutouts, any pitch beyond the hundredth is carefully monitored, and any mistake can get the pitcher yanked.

Some team executives - most notably Nolan Ryan - have railed against such a strategy, and has encouraged his pitchers (those on the team he owns, the Texas Rangers) to work deeper into games and throw more pitches; just like pitchers did in Ryan's day. (Interestingly enough, starters on Ryan's 2010 Rangers averaged 98 pitches per game, exactly the league average.)

Craig Wright has a novel way of looking at pitch counts for individual games: he thinks that a) a standard, fixed pitch limit for all pitchers regardless of experience or maturity is a potentially harmful practice and b) that determining a pitcher's proper workload requires a detailed examination of not only the pitcher's aggregate work over the entire season, but also knowledge of the pitcher's developmental period.

According to Wright's research, the joints are among the last parts of the human body to develop - the extremely crucial (in life as well as in pitching) elbow and shoulder joints may not reach maturity until age 25. Thus any pitcher younger than 25 is still developing, not only as an athlete, but as a human being. Wright separates the developmental years into three stages: 1) the teenage years, 2) age 20-22, and 3) age 23 and 24.

If a pitcher can get through those crucial developmental stages without putting too much stress on his arm or showing signs of trouble, he will generally be able to enjoy a longer career and rack up more innings than if he was abused as a youngster. If a pitcher is adequately nurtured and brought along slowly enough, increasing his workload at the proper increments, he can build up enough arm strength and stamina to regularly put together 130-140 pitch outings.

In the article, Wright points out how Nolan Ryan, thanks to non-serious injuries and military obligation, was able to put together a picture-perfect developmental profile, allowing him to pitch effectively into his mid-40s. He contrasts Ryan to Bobby Witt, a star prospect whose career fell flat due to an unhealthy workload during the years before his arm was fully mature.

I don't want to repeat the whole article, but the whole theory made so much sense to me, that I vowed to pay extra close attention to pitchers in their developmental years and see which are being used correctly and which are being pushed too far. Expect that to be a common thread in this blog heading into 2011.

Oh, back to Wainwright: looking at his developmental profile, we see something like this:

His move to reliever in his first years in the majors (2005-06) helped limit his innings in his last developmental, although it looks like he missed some significant time in 2004 (my knowledge of minor league injury history is not exactly up to par). Other than that blip, it looks like he had a pretty measured workload for those formative years. Each major league player is different, and sometimes they have issues that their history cannot point out. I don't know what caused Wainwright's injury, although it seems like the Cardinals brass was expecting this to happen. I wish him the best in his recovery - he is one of the best after all.

Top Off-Season Trades

Judging by the news that Michael Young has requested a trade from Texas after being relegated to the DH spot (a roster move that apparently has nothing to do with the request... yeah, I'm sure, just like when one spouse's cheating has nothing to do with the other asking for a divorce...), we might not be done with big trades in the 2010-11 off-season. But with pitchers and catchers about a week from reporting to camp, I feel like it's late enough to give a rundown of the

TOP 10 OFF-SEASON TRADED PLAYERS (+1 Extra Bonus Pick)

The R-Sox fell from contention in 2010, but aim to get right back in it with a couple of big personnel moves between seasons: they signed speed with Crawford and traded for power in Gonzalez. A-Gon was pretty darn good even playing in Petco Park, the most pitcher-friendly stadium in the game, so he should really thrive in the much comfier Fenway Park.

Dan Uggla should bolster the Braves' lineup as only the heaviest-hitting second baseman in the league can. Atlanta struggled to score runs last year, with rookie Jason Heyward and perennial All-Star Brian McCann the team's only big offensive threats. He's sure to boot a few balls hit his way (which I'm sure ground-ball machine Tim Hudson will take some issue with), but he'll more than make up for it at the plate.

Marcum was one of two big pitcher acquisitions by the Brewers this off-season (see below). I guess they're making a push for Prince Fielder's last season before free agency. Marcum's kind of a risk, coming off a good season, but having missed the entire year before. But if his 2010 is any indication of his true ability, he should absolutely thrive in the National League.

It's unclear exactly where Wells will play, since the Angels already have erstwhile defensive whiz Torii Hunter manning the 8 spot... but judging by the latest defensive metrics, a move to left field might not be such a bad thing. Wells returned to form at the plate in 2010 following a 3-season-long power outage, and should help the Angels field a more well-rounded team.

Greinke fell far short of his 2009 Cy Young performance, which is the only reason he's below fellow Brewer acquisition Sean Marcum on this list. He still shows a lot of upside heading into his age 27 season, especially if he can keep his hits and earned runs down, and the move to the National League won't hurt. Now's Greinke's big chance to prove that his breakout season wasn't a fluke - and to partly justify my wasting my third pick on him in last year's fantasy draft.

This is just good baseball economics: the Rays had a surplus of starting pitchers, and they got the most they could for one of their mid-level guys off a career-high in wins, but not much else. He should help a Cubs pitching staff that ranked near the bottom of the league in ERA last season. However, perhaps they shouldn't have given up five top prospects on the basis of an outdated, meaningless statistic.

Former Angel catcher Bengie Molina is out and former Angel catcher Mike Napoli is in... but this one also plays first base to boot. He can back up both Yorvit Torrealba and Mitch Moreland, neither of whom project as above-average full-time major league starters. Napoli's big time power should also be better served by the Ballpark in Arlington than by Angel Stadium in ANAHEIM NOT AT ALL LOS ANGELES.

Davis has it all: speed on the basepaths, speed in the outfield... okay, so maybe he doesn't have it all, but he's good at what he does have: speed, speed, and more speed. If nothing else, he should cover a lot of ground taking over for former franchise player Vernon Wells in Toronto.

Infante is on this list almost solely due to his selection to last year's All-Star team. He has durability, he has versatility, and he can rack up a lot of base hits if given the opportunity. Despite his lack of any apparent baseball skills that lead to immediately scoring or preventing runs, he's pretty much tops on the Marlins' depth chart for second base, third base, and even maybe center field.

Some people might remember Frank Francisco from his one year setting up for C.J. Wilson, some may remember his one year tenure as Texas's closer... I remember him for tossing a chair at a fan in a fabled fight at the Oakland Coliseum. He'll take his aggression north of the border where he'll join a duo of sometime-relievers-sometime-closers at the back end of the Blue Jays bullpen.

Who can tell if Reynolds will cut down on his strikeouts on a new team in a new league with a new manager, but if he can, then the American League East had better watch out. He's got legendary power, but also owns the major league record for most strikeouts in a season ever, and last year he even failed to crack the Mendoza line. He'll have his work cut out for him in a division that includes Evan Longoria, Alex Rodriguez, and Kevin Youkilis.

Top Off-Season Free Agent Resignings

The Baseball Off-Season is not all about big name players changing hands. Sometimes players hit free agency, test the waters, and then decide that they're better off staying put where they played the year before. Here are some such players who chose not to abandon their former employers for the promise of greener pastures.

TOP 5 (+1 Bonus) FREE AGENT RESIGNINGS

Konerko broke out with perhaps his biggest season ever after a couple of years of mediocrity. At age 34, he scored the highest OPS of his career (.977), missed his career highs in average by .001, in homers by 2, and in RBI by 5. His 5.0 WAR eclipsed his previous career mark by 1.5. He made his fourth All-Star team (as a bonus 39th man selection, or whatever, but still). The White Sox rewarded him with a 3-year deal AND a big bat to protect him in the lineup (see #7 of the previous entry).

Huff was by far the biggest bat on a San Francisco team that won the World Series mostly on the strength of pitching - he led the team in homers, RBI, and OPS. He also contributed by manning both corner outfield spots when his team was in need. He'll have at least two more years with the Giants (plus a possible third year with a team option), and with no significant offensive upgrades (despite an offense nicknamed "Torture" by Giants fans, they only managed to add aging shortstop Miguel Tejada and hold on to aging leftfielder Pat Burrell) Huff looks to continue as the team's brightest star at the plate for quite some time.

After being acquired in 2009, Pavano stuck around for a full season with Minnesota and worked wonders. Rejuvenating a career that almost stopped short with the Yankees in 2005, Pavano pitched even better than his breakout 2004 season (which netted him that big contract with New York in the first place), leading the league with both 7 complete games and 2 shutouts. How the 34-year-old managed so many innings and wins with such a (relatively) low strikeout rate (3.16 for every walk) we may never know... but the Twins are banking on him to repeat the feat for two more years.

Any year you can hang onto perhaps the best living relief pitcher has to be considered a winner, even though Rivera, a lifelong Yankee, wasn't likely to sign anywhere else. The Yanks stuck with Rivera's $15 mil per annum price tag for two more years, the same they'd been paying him the previous three. Some may question whether 60 innings a year is worth so much money - and we all know that saves are the most overvalued statistic in all of baseball - but there's also that tangible intimidation factor and the relative assurance of an 8-inning game for those 60 or so games in which he does appear.

Perhaps no one was more useful off the bench last year than Thome was for the Minnesota Twins. They've got him back for a year at age 40, but the only question is where to put him. He got a chance to play last year when first baseman Justin Morneau went down with an injury, but he's back at first base, All-Underrated team member Michael Cuddyer and imminent arbitration case Delmon Young occupy the outfield corners, and Jason "The Future" Kubel is the full-time DH. I don't know if he'll earn his $3 mil as a full-time pinch-hitter, but his '011 salary, as low as it seems, is a full 100% increase from what he was paid in '010, which should give you some idea of his value.

And finally, what list of resignings would be complete without the product of the year's most talked about negotiation period, Captain Derek Sanderson Jeter, Shortstop, Esq.? He only squeaks by on a bonus pick because a) he wasn't really that productive last year, b) he's in his mid-30s and likely won't stay at his customary position for long, and c) I really didn't want to revisit those agonizing few weeks towards the end of 2010 when it looked like Cap'n Jetes might be seen wearing anything other than pinstripes.

So that's pretty much it. A lot more action in the finding-a-new-job market than in keeping-your-old-job. The best honorable mention is the aforementioned Pat Burrell, who isn't even slated to start for the Giants, pending Mark DeRosa's return to relevancy. As you'll see next time, there was much more news in the trade department...

100th Post Spectacular: 2010-11 Off-Season Review

100 Posts, can you believe it? It seems like only yesterday that I started this blog with nothing but a concept and a positive attitude. And now look at it: pretty much the same as when it started, but with slightly more content in the archives. And now, with Spring Training less than a month away and with the last of the big name free agents having found a home, what better way to celebrate getting into triple digits than by kicking off a three-part series overviewing some of the biggest action that took place over the off-season.

The Baseball Off-Season is all about free agents. The market becomes flooded with them immediately after the World Series, and they generally represent the quickest way to add new talent without giving up any existing talent (not counting sacrificing draft picks for Type A or B free agents). But just as important as giving a new home to a player with wanderlust is holding onto your own free agency-eligible players. And although trades can happen at any time during the season, off-season trades have a somewhat different character - they are made with the idea of preparing for the coming season rather than bolstering an already-existing lineup.

So here is the first list:

TOP 10 NEW FREE AGENT SIGNINGS (+1 Extra Bonus Pick!)

Without using baseball-reference.com, could you guess who played the majority of games in left field for the Boston Red Sox in 2010? Now be honest, who here would have said Daniel Nava, the 27-year-old rookie who hadn't seen any major league action before last year? Doesn't sound like a starting corner outfielder on a championship caliber team, does it? Well it wasn't, but boy do they have one lined up for next year - and for six years thereafter. Crawford is one of the fastest players in the game, he's flashed some decent power, and he doesn't embarrass himself in the field.

But for the grace of God, Beltre could have been flashing his awesome glove at the hot corner for the Oakland A's, representing a massive step toward helping their fans forget the injury woes of Eric Chavez - just as Beltre's phenomenal 2010 in Boston helped his supporters forget his woes in Seattle. But instead he signed with the Rangers, a team who already had a perfectly viable third baseman (in Michael Young) AND who failed to re-sign their best starting pitcher.

Lee is the above-mentioned pitcher that the Rangers failed to sign - he was picked up by the Philadelphia Phillies in a surprising move, since many saw his negotiations as a two-horse race between the Rangers and the Yankees. That race has left both runners up clawing at each others' throats, while the winner came away with four staff ace-caliber pitchers (Roy Halladay, Lee, Roy Oswalt, and Cole Hamels). If there was any doubt about the National League team to beat in 2011, I'd like to consider that doubt dispelled.

He hits for more raw power than Crawford and draws more walks, but Werth is all but guaranteed to be nowhere near the 2011 playoffs, seeing as he's locked up with the perpetually basement dwelling Washington Nationals. I know Stephen Strasburg is on the way back from surgery and Bryce Harper is s'posed to be one heck of a hitter, but will Werth and his gargantuan contract still be around when those youngsters are ready to participate at the big league level?

You got to hand it to the Tigers, making a couple of moves to try and stay competitive in what could be a weak AL Central. Experts say that V-Mart will likely spend most of his time as Detroit's DH, although he does have the ability to play both catcher and first base. His value goes down a bit considering his production won't be coming from the game's weakest offensive position, but he might perform better without the physical strain that comes from playing behind the plate.

Soriano put up really impressive numbers as the Rays' closer, yet he will spend 2011 setting up for perhaps the greatest living closer ever in Mariano Rivera. Perhaps the Yankees committed too much cash for such a fungible position, and it seems almost wasteful NOT to have one of last year's most effective closers actually closing out games, but, as I've noted before, relief pitchers play a valuable role in their teams' success, and a deep bullpen never hurt anyone.

Dunn is a one-sided talent, but since he was signed by the White Sox, who already have an All-Star first baseman in Paul Konerko, Dunn won't even have to play the field at all. (He used to be an outfielder, but last year his manager finally gave up on sending him out there, opting instead to plant him at first base.) This is one of those picture-perfect scenarios: big hit, no field player signs with an American League team to finish up his career as a DH. They happen so rarely that it's a situation worth keeping an eye on to see if it actually pans out as planned.

This spot was somewhat of a toss-up between Uribe and Miguel Tejada. Both put up very similar numbers playing shortstop for contending NL West teams, but it was Tejada's poor play at third base for the Orioles during the first half of his season that gave me pause. Uribe is slated to play second base for the Dodgers in 2011 while Tejada should move back to short for the Giants, so Tejada has a higher expected value next season, but I think Uribe has the better chance to succeed.

Matsui will represent not only the best, but the ONLY power bat on a pitching-and-defense oriented Oakland A's roster. He hit decently in 2010, and as long as the A's keep him OUT of the outfield, he should be able to contribute more than he did last year with the Angels (he represented a full 0.4 wins BELOW replacement last year in the field). But perhaps more important than how he performs with the bat is whether "Godzilla" will attract more fans of the Japanese persuasion to attend games at the dilapidated Oakland Coliseum.

It seems like no former closers are being signed to actually be closers this year: lefty reliever Brian Fuentes will be setting up for former Rookie of the Year Andrew Bailey. He excelled in this role with the Twins last year after spending the previous 5.5 years closing for first the Rockies, then the Angels. The A's bullpen should definitely be able to protect leads... if the offense ends up scoring any runs.

I added an extra spot for the O-Dog, and since he's signed for three years, this should be his last appearance on this list for a while (after two straight one-year deals). We'll see if he, along with new double play partner Jason Bartlett, can reinvigorate a San Diego lineup suffering from the loss of franchise player Adrian Gonzalez.

Next Time: A significantly shorter list, comprised of the best Free Agent Re-Signings... STAY TUNED!

Everything I Know about Salary Arbitration

We've just reached a very important day in the Major League Baseball off-season: That's right, you guessed it, it's time for players and teams to exchange numbers for Salary Arbitration! Yay!

What is Salary Arbitration, you ask? I'm very glad you did! In order to understand it, you have to know a little bit about free agency and how Major League contracts work.

The minimum salary for a year of service in Major League Baseball is around $400,000. (It was exactly $400,000 last year, but I think it got a little bump going into the 2011 season.) A player is not eligible for Free Agency until after six (6) years of service in the majors. But that doesn't mean players are stuck making a measly $400k per annum (plus nominal raises) for six full years - because after three (3) years, a player becomes eligible for Salary Arbitration.*

* There is an exception: If a player plays for two FULL years, he can become a "Super Two" player and become arbitration eligible immediately after his second season in the Majors. In 2010, only 20 players qualified for Super Two status. After 2011, barring injury, you'll likely see Jason Heyward (among others) achieve this milestone.

When a player becomes arbitration eligible, that player's team has two options: it (they?) can offer arbitration, or they can decline to tender a contract to that player. If the player is thus non-tendered, the player becomes a Free Agent (see Russell Martin or John Maine). A player can also elect free agency (see Casey Kotchman or Gabe Gross). I don't know all the details about/loopholes involved in this process.

If a player is offered arbitration and declines, he becomes a Free Agent, and the player's former team might receive some compensation in the form of draft picks (if the player in question has a high enough profile). If a player is offered arbitration and accepts, then the real negotiations begin. But before we hit the tables with the players, agents, GMs, and team execs, let's outline the actual process of an arbitration hearing.

In such a hearing, the player submits his ideal salary for next season: what he thinks he's worth (or what he'd like to get paid). Then the team makes a counter offer of a lower salary: what they think he's worth (or what they are willing to pay him). These two figures then go before a third party - an arbitrator - who picks one number or the other; in an arbitration hearing there is no middle ground. Thus there are clear winners and losers in the process and it fits in very nicely with the American concept of sport.

Let me make one thing clear: arbitration cases very rarely go to the hearing stage. The Cleveland Indians, for example, have not had an arbitration case go to a hearing in 20 years. They're generally pretty unpleasant and leave bad tastes in the mouth of both the players and the teams involved. For the most part, arbitration hearings hang in the distance like threatening storm clouds, lending an air of urgency to the negotiation period.

Because for the whole period of time between when a player is offered arbitration and when he files (i.e. formally submits his salary figures), he can negotiate with his former team. Actually, negotiations can continue even during the period between when he files and the hearing actually occurs. So more often than not, teams and players come to some kind of compromise before the law gets involved.

119 players filed for arbitration this year. Significantly fewer got to the stage where each side submitted numbers. It's hard to find a unified list of which players/teams are where in the arbitration process, but as always some interesting cases stand out as far as teams and players not being able to come to an agreement:

* AL MVP Josh Hamilton was not satisfied with the $8.7 million offered by the AL Champion Texas Rangers, asking for a whopping $12 million. Considering the Rangers avoided arbitration with outfielders Nelson Cruz and David Murphy, and pitcher C.J. Wilson, it's a shame they couldn't wrap something up with their franchise player. Either figure would be a significant raise over Hamilton's 2010 salary of $3.25 million.

* The Angels couldn't agree to a contact with their ace Jered Weaver, who led the league in strikeouts and games started. The difference between their respective salaries is less than $1.5 million ($8.8 proposed by Weaver, $7.37 countered by the team), but I suspect this is more of a grand gesture by a pitcher just entering his prime who wants to reap the most benefits out of his most productive years as possible. In a weak AL West, I'd say Weaver's worth at least what he's asking for.

* Similarly, Twins ace Francisco Liriano filed for arbitration, but the scale is a little smaller - he wants $5 mil, the Twins want to pay him $3.6. He's just about the same age as Weaver, and he had a solid season in '010, but it was his first time being adequate in almost four years. I'm sure both parties want to tread lightly and pray for no more injuries.

* Cubs closer Carlos Marmol, one of only 5 relief pitchers to top 3 WAR, also filed. I don't think the numbers have been published, but experts are predicting somewhere in the $4 - $5 million range.

Other key players whose arbitration numbers haven't been officially published: 2010's home run leader Jose Bautista, Milwaukee second baseman Rickie Weeks who had a breakout season last year, Baltimore's politically inflammatory DH Luke Scott, and rookie phenom starter Jaime Garcia.

I honestly probably won't update when new information comes out. At this point, we know all these players will be with the same team next year, now it's just a matter of deciding what they'll be paid. Don't get me wrong, it's helpful and interesting to have a handle on a team's payroll, especially in the middle of January when there's absolutely no other baseball news going on. But now at least maybe you won't immediately tune out when a sportscaster mentions "arbitration."

Relief Pitchers

Most Baseball games these days last 9 innings. Starting Pitchers during the 2010 MLB season averaged exactly 6.0 innings pitched per start. Closers usually only pitch one inning, and then only in close games where their team has the lead.

So who makes up for the rest of those innings?

You guessed it: Relief Pitchers.

Relief Pitchers inhabit that transitional space between when the starter can simply go no further and either a) the end of the game or b) the Closer is called in to protect a lead. They have no set schedule when they'll pitch. They have no set roles (save for LOOGYs and loosely-categorized "setup men"). As a group, they probably receive the least attention of any "position" in the game. And yet - since Starting Pitchers are showing no indication of becoming more like starting Quarterbacks - they play a necessary part for any team that hopes to be successful.

In 2010, the Year of the Pitcher, three dedicated relievers (Hong-Chih Kuo, Evan Meek, and Matt Thornton) were selected as All-Star reserves by the managers, which to me indicates some interesting recognition for Relief Pitchers qua position rather than just failed starters, or potential Closers who aren't quite good enough to close. Just as the position itself has an element of transience, many relief pitchers find themselves in that role as they're transitioning to or from a more defined role in their careers, which is reflected in the extremely high turnover rate among relievers from year to year. But that doesn't mean that particular pitchers can't excel in that role while they're in it.

Below is a chart of the Relief Pitchers who most excelled (according to swp) in 2010:

Only two dedicated Relievers scored over 20 points per game: Hong-Chih Kuo and Koji Uehara. Both of these guys spent some time as closers in 2010, each recording at least 10 saves, but neither pitched in enough save opportunities to get a CL next to their name. By the numbers: Kuo appeared in 13 of his team's 59 SVOpps (22%) - Uehara appeared in 15/62 (24.2%). As you may recall, my cutoff to qualify someone as a Closer is 25%, so both of these are extremely marginal cases.

As for the other two 1,000 point-scorers who didn't have saves to pad their stats (Tyler Clippard and Matt Belisle each had just one save), you can isolate three similar factors in their performances: innings pitched, earned runs, and strikeouts.

When you jump down to the next three, taking us through the 980s (Rookie Evan Meek, lefty specialist and future closer Matt Thornton, and Clay Hensley, bouncing back after a year off) we see some different trends. There's a wider range in innings and strikeouts, earned runs are still similar, but certain rate stats (namely H/9, HR/9, and BB/9) are almost identical.

But SWP are so variable, since there are many different ways to achieve the same "score" - even among players of the same position - that it's futile to try to find any kind of true correlation. Or rather at least MY efforts have proved futile. Perhaps more astute minds than mine will/would have more success.

So to avoid this pitfall, let's use a more reliable (or at least a more trendy) one-number statistic: Wins Above Replacement. Here's the top Relieves according to WAR:

A lot of the top guys in SWP are still ranked toward the top. But what, for instance, makes Daniel Bard so special that he's worth more "wins" than any of his compatriots while scoring so many fewer "points?" Thornton is within 0.001 points in WHIP. Clippard and Belisle have him way beat in strikeouts and innings. Kuo and Joaquin Benoit have lower ERA.

And what is it about Darren O'Day and Sean Burnett that make them more "valuable" than our 1,000 point powerhouses? What's the secret?

Do they factor in salary to the WAR equation? Seems like that's not totally intuitive or productive.

I suppose there's just too many variables. So many things go into evaluating a player's performance, and it only gets harder with such a nebulous position as Relievers, who basically only have one stat (holds, MAYBE inherited runner scored percentage) to separate them from their other more durable, effective, or specialized pitching colleagues.

But as long as starters continue the trend of not completing every game and closers don't all morph into multiple inning monsters a la Bruce Sutter, we're going to see plenty of action from Relief Pitchers. And until they go away, I will continue to show my appreciation by learning everything I possibly can about them.

AL Wild Card Divisional All-Stars

With this eight-part series drawing to a close, I find myself ready and yet reluctant to let it fade. It's been great to give myself an overview of the best performers of 2010, but on the other hand, my left brain is so swamped with stats and numbers and rankings that it's hard to keep everything straight. I'll attempt to provide a little perspective along with the numbers when I present this "Best of the Rest" Wild Card lineup:

Wow, look at Juan Pierre's swp/WAR ratio: unsightly much? This is probably a perfect storm of one metric drastically overvaluing (probably due to steals being worth 30 swp each) and one metric drastically undervaluing (probably because of the lack of extra base hits, which we all know produce lots of runs). He was the AL's fourth highest scoring left fielder to Delmon Young by just 1 swp, which is funny because the best and second best (by far) left fielders came from the East and West respectively: Carl Crawford of the New Big Contract and Josh Hamilton of the MVP honors.

Like Pierre, John Buck was another "True Wild Card" candidate: fourth place in the league in terms of stats. The Twins' Joe Mauer was obviously the best, the Red Sox's Victor Martinez was next (although he will be playing next season with the Tigers), and then the Angels' Mike Napoli (who actually spent the majority of his time at first base... no one has to know...). Billy Butler was likewise the fourth best first baseman, but his case is slightly different because the four teams actually feature five first basemen: Detroit's Miguel Cabrera is #1, his runner-up, Paul Konerko, serves as the AL Central's DH, the Yankees' Mark Teixeira led his division, and Butler is sandwiched between him and the A's' Daric Barton.

Despite his Wild Card berth, Nick Swisher amassed the third best swp as a right fielder, behind Jose Bautista and Shin-Soo Choo, but just edging out Bobby Abreu in the West. Same circumstances for B.J. Upton, who again fell behind his Central and Eastern center field counterparts (Alex Rios and Vernon Wells respectively), but finished ahead of Torii Hunter (again from the West and again playing for the Angels).

It's deja vu all over again for Alex Gonzalez despite the fact that he split his time between leagues: behind Derek Jeter (Yankees, East) and Alexei Ramirez (White Sox, Central), but ahead of Cliff Pennington (A's, West). Aaron Hill somehow finished ahead of Orlando Hudson in swp (but behind Robinson Cano and Howard Kendrick), despite failing to crack even a single WAR. Much better choices would be Chone Figgins (1,364 swp / 2.0 WAR) or even the injury-shortened season of Ian Kinsler (1,351 swp / 2.7 WAR).

Alex Rodriguez of the Yankees was the third best third baseman, but like first base, he is out of five players of his position represented. Strange piece of trivia: all three of the AL's top third basemen came from the East: Evan Longoria from the Rays, Adrian Beltre from the Red Sox (East's DH), then A-Rod. Michael Young (who may be moving to DH to make room for aforementioned Beltre when the Rangers sign him), and Jhonny Peralta fell far short.

David Ortiz was one of two full-time DH's represented - the other being Vladimir Guerrero, an erstwhile right fielder. What's the difference between these two? The Red Sox picked up Ortiz's option whereas the Rangers declined Guerrero's. He remains unsigned at the date of this writing.

Starting pitchers are a little easier to rank because there aren't any positions to deal with; it's just straight stats right down the line. The top three Wild Card starters come from the West: Gio Gonzalez (A's), Colby Lewis (Rangers, late of Japan), and Ervin Santana (Angels). Gio would be the #2 starter for the Central and the #5 starter in the East - the only Wild Card starter to crack a spot in the Eastern rotation. Any of the next three (starter #4 is Toronto's Ricky Romero, representing the East) could pitch #5 for the Central team. The Wild Card's #5 starter, Matt Garza, is the lowest scoring pitcher to make it into one of these Divisional rotations.

Mariano Rivera's age seems to have finally caught up to him, as he only pitched well enough to be a True Wild Card candidate. Rafael Soriano (Rays), Joakim Soria (Royals), and Rookie of the Year Neftali Feliz (Rangers) surpassed the great Mo. He narrowly surpassed Jonathan Papelbon, who had a rotten year by his standards. We'll have to wait and see if he can regain extra-human status next season.

Oh boy relief pitchers. I wanted to do a study on them specifically, but that's going to have to wait until after the imminent announcement of who gets into the class of 2011 of the Baseball Hall of Fame. Is it wrong that I'm more excited about these ultimately meaningless announcements than I am about the entire Football/Basketball seasons combined?

AL West Divisional All-Stars

Finally, some teams to which we can relate! In the Year of the Pitcher, check out how many A's are present on the offensive end...

Two! Two A's! Ah ah ah!

(That was Count von Count from Sesame Street, by the way...)

Yes, just two, and pretty near the bottom of the lineup, but they are the only two representatives from teams not the Angels or Rangers. Two more A's appear on the team, one starter and one reliever, the latter surrounded by THE ENTIRE TEXAS RANGERS BULLPEN! I mean, seriously, right? I know they went to the World Series, but were their relievers really THAT badass?

As far as holdovers from last year, only a pair of Angels in the Outfield (haha, remember that one?): Bobby Abreu and Torii Hunter. Abreu didn't even have to compete with Ichiro this year and took the right field spot outright. Last year's top two pitchers - Hernandez and Weaver - returned for another go-round, as did three relievers: the '010 Rangers' two Darren O's (although Oliver pitched for the Angels in '09 and O'Day's time was split with the Mets) and Craig Breslow.

Notice how last year's bullpen was dominated by the A's in not quite as dramatic a way that this year's is dominated by the Rangers. Also notice how both teams featured the AL Rookie of the Year in the Closer's spot. Strange how these things match up...

All this talk about the bullpen draws focus away from the sad sad state of the offense in this division. Looking for some oWAR above 4? Josh Hamilton's your man, and no one else. Even Vlad Guerrero, with his impressive swp-measured stats, couldn't crack a measly 3 wins above replacement. The starters make up for it, as you won't find a starter with a WAR below 4.

Only one more team to go after this one. As I near the end of this project, I find it hard to keep track of the scope of it and what it all means. With the AL Wild Card I'll also do some big picture wrapping up in general. I don't know how much all you readers out there in readerland are absorbing of any of this, but it sure was a fun way for me to spend the offseason. Much more productive than agonizing about who's going to sign the next big free agent...

AL Central Divisional All-Stars

With the completion of this list, I will be 3/4 of the way through the Divisional All-Stars project. Starting to get a little burned out on the lists? Me too, kind of. When dealing with so many fantastic players, there becomes less and less to say about each one of them in terms of commentary. For the AL Central, I'd like to focus on repeat honorees, folks who were good enough to make the list two years in a row. But first, the raw numbers:

Right away we can see some of the best hitters to appear in this project followed directly by some of the very worst. Not that guys like Jhonny Peralta are bad athletes - he was just rewarded with a new contract from the Tigers - but put him up next to some of his competition (Evan Longoria, Adrian Beltre, Alex Rodriguez, Michael Young), and it's easy to see that we're dealing with one of the weaker divisions in the sport right now.

As far as holdovers, there's only six: three batters, one starter, and two relievers. At the plate, we have Mauer, Cabrera, and Choo, with the supporting cast around them just as lackluster as this year's bunch, minus the DH spot, of course (last year occupied by Michael Cuddyer, spending most of his playing time in right field). On the mound, Verlander is the starter to appear on last year's team, although Danks did headline last year's AL Wild Card starting staff. The two reliever Matt's (Thornton & Guerrier) showed up on both teams.

A weak offense, the loss of both Zack Greinke and Cliff Lee from the rotation; this AL Central is but a shadow of its former self. Consider the WAR of their starting staff: four 4's and a 3, compared to the AL East's four 5's and a 3. The story of Francisco Liriano's comeback is an inspiring one, but great teams are made by great players, not great stories.

I must admit, I'm a little baffled by what makes a high WAR score. If it were strikeouts, Verlander would be way ahead. Pavano has a big lead in complete games. Danks didn't seem to do anything that special. I don't know what crazy algorithm they've got going, but it escapes me. However they're calculated, they sure make the Royals look smart for locking up Joakim Soria for a multiyear deal - as I hinted at last time, he scored the most WAR of any reliever in the game.

While comparing these teams to one another, I found myself wishing that I had access to some fancy simulation software, where I could plug in all these players and their stats, and "watch" what would happen if they faced off in a fictional Playoff situation. Then I realized that such software does in fact exist - in the form of video games on our most powerful consoles!

I haven't played a baseball game regularly since MVP '05 for the PS2... and by regularly, I mean obsessively. Heck, I'd still be playing it, if the lag created by plugging my older system into my schmancy new HDTV didn't make the game unplayable. Maybe if I gift myself a PS3 for Christmas, I'll consider buying one of the new games, adjusting the rosters, and setting in motion a simulated series. I'd feel like Aristotle's Unmoved Mover as I watched the pixelated teams that I created run and jump and swing and slide all over a computer-generated field.

Wouldn't that be exciting? Now I just have to decide which game throw my support behind: the MLB "The Show" series or the 2K_ series. Any suggestions from baseball gamers out there?

AL East Divisional All-Stars

Alright, time to forget about recent developments like the close of the Winter Meetings, the Golden Globe nominations, and the announcement of Time's Person of the Year, and jump right in to the American League Divisional All-Stars!

Not to always harp on this newfangled swp/WAR ratio I've started calculating, but let's start with our duo of overrated Yankees in the starting lineup. Mark Teixeira struggled to the lowest slash stats since his age 23 rookie season, but somehow put up good enough numbers (mostly through runs and walks - he had the lowest extra base hit percentage of his career) to rack up an impressive amount of points. Derek Jeter didn't necessarily earn his new $51 million contract, putting up an offensive win percentage below .500 for the first time ever since taking over as regular shortstop in 1996. Despite being a totally offensive-minded metric, swp seems to more accurately predict Gold Glove winners than valuable batters - both of the above players were recipients of the defensive award last season.

Now let's take a minute to marvel at Jose Bautista's season. 54 home runs OUT OF NOWHERE. 124 RBI to go with them. .86 BB/K ratio, compared to his career mark of .58. And all this with a .233 batting average on balls in play, which suggests that he was immensely UNlucky in terms of hits/outs this season. A season for the ages, just as next season will undoubtedly be in the running for one of the biggest season-to-season dropoffs of all time...

I lost many nights of sleep trying to determine who should occupy the DH spot: whether it should be the best runner-up out of all the position players or the best player who played the majority of his games as the DH. If there weren't two very good candidates, it would have been much tougher, but David Ortiz (2,017 / 13.9) gave Adrian Beltre a run for his money, especially considering just swp and also that as the DH his defensive prowess means less.

Overall, this team is remarkably economical with their swp. Aside from the two Yankees mentioned before and Carl Crawford - who had a remarkably impressive season, but played in an uncharacteristically deep position - not a single ratio above 500 on the lineup or the starting staff. Speaking of the starting staff, check out the league leaders included in that bunch: Sabathia in wins (21), Lester in K/9 innings (9.7), and Buchholz in adjusted ERA+ (187). The pitcher with the lowest WAR (Shaun Marcum) actually had the highest K/BB ratio of the bunch (3.65) - plus he just came back from a full season of not pitching, so we should cut him some slack.

Look at how much WAR likes setup man Daniel Bard: his 3.3 wins above replacement is the highest among all non-closer relievers. (It's also good for second overall among ALL relievers, tied with Brian Wilson and behind... well, you'll find out next time!) On the other end of the spectrum, look at how little WAR appreciates the unique talent of the swingman: David Hernandez, who started roughly 20% of his games, sits pretty with less than 1 win above replacement. Although we might find that's not the norm next week...

Also, as a point of trivia, check out Koji Uehara's swp/g: 20.1! As (technically) a reliever! He's an example of a fringe reliever: my criteria for distinguishing CL's from RP's is that a Closer must have appeared in at least 25% of his team's save opportunities (SVOpp's). Guess Uehara's percentage: that's right, 24.2%. At least WAR puts him in his place as far as effectiveness goes.

Next Week: AL Central.