Saturday, April 12, 2014

Video Game Review: MLB 14 The Show

When I put my new (for me) copy of MLB 14 The Show into my PS3 for the first time (it won't hit shelves for the PS4 for about another month), the first thing I saw was... a screen prompting me to download and install the latest updates, which took upwards of 20 minutes. It's loading times like these that make me nostalgic for All-Star Baseball 2001, the crowning achievement of baseball video gaming in the cartridge (i.e. no waiting) era. As it turns out, the default hitting mode makes the gameplay feel a lot like a clunkier version of that same game, but more on that later. First, I should mention the second thing I saw (and the first thing I heard) - an intricate opening movie showcasing gameplay footage highlight reels of the six major award winners from 2013 (Rookie of the Year, Cy Young, and MVP, one for each league) set to the song "Rival" by Black Rebel Motorcycle Club.

This opening title sequence gave me a lot of emotions to digest. First was disappointment, in that the polygonal character models and choppy swing animations still remind me too much of the early 2000's PS1 version of the same series (remember when it was Andruw Jones on the box art instead of Miguel Cabrera?). Then admiration, for the sheer level of detail in aspects such as stadium design, uniform variety (Jose Fernandez was shown in no fewer than four distinct jersey styles) and even stitching (the D in Detroit never looked so fancy). Then quizzicalness, as I was trying to figure out what the title song was. The only knowledge I have of BRMC is their song from Batman: Arkham City - The Album. Although it's nice that they have a video game track record, it's a decidedly less baseball-centric theme song than "Tessie" from EA's MVP Baseball 2005, the gold standard of both baseball video games and baseball video game soundtracks, in my (admittedly somewhat limited) opinion.

How little has changed from 2001 to 2013, except the aspect ratio and pixel count...

As it turns out, I was digesting these emotions long enough after the movie was over for the game to launch into demo mode, before I even selected a preferred difficulty level (my choices were Beginner or Experienced). As fate would have it, the two teams that the AI chose to pit against each other were two teams to which I have an extra special attachment: the Oakland Athletics (personal) and the New York Yankees (family). The initial introduction of the teams and stadium by play by play caller Matt Vasgersian was just as impressive and detailed (in its own way) as the intricate uniform stitching - they've even got the names and likenesses of the base coaches! Watching the gameplay itself is very reminiscent of watching a regular MLB game, especially in the pacing - I counted an average of about 15 seconds between pitches, but at least in the early innings, these seconds were filled not only with player animations (batters stepping out of the box, pitchers wandering around the mound) but also fun infographics about the matchup/weather/etc. Changing the mode to "Fast Play" reduces the between pitch time by about 10 seconds, making the proceedings feel slightly more like the old days of baseball gaming.

I only got through watching one full inning of the game before I was tempted to hit the Select button on my controller to join in the game. Somehow it knew to put me in control of the A's, my favorite team in all the major leagues (maybe this was because they were the home team). However, there was something notably out of date about the pitcher I was to control - it was Jarrod Parker, who WAS slated to be Oakland's Opening Day starter, until he went down for the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery (the second of his career) which was announced on March 17. His presence at the top of the rotation brings up two interesting questions about how the game: 1) what date were the default rosters finalized and 2) how it handles injuries to key players. In a game that lets you control a dynasty for multiple years, it doesn't seem right to leave players out of the game entirely just because they're slated to miss one season, but I have to believe that if the programmers knew about Parker's injury, they would have moved him out of the Opening Day slot. More research is needed to find this out - it's only been a couple hours of gameplay after all.

Parker faced a Yankees starting lineup that was accurate, to a man, to my projected lineup for them (which was the same as ESPN's AL preview, but slightly different than Sports Illustrated's - but only in Brett Gardner's spot in the batting order). The only notable change for the A's lineup (not including batting order) was probably due to the presence of left handed pitcher CC Sabathia on the mound - they have Nate Freiman in there as the DH, as if this were still 2013 and the Rule 5 pick had to stay on the major league roster all season. In reality, Freiman started the year in the minors, but I don't begrudge the game this inconsistency. After all, there was no way to predict Daric Barton's hot spring (that sounds like a late night Skinemax TV show, doesn't it?) or that the A's would carry TWO left-handed hitting first basemen on their roster in this day of platoons.

The pitching interface no longer follows EA's model of holding down the button corresponding to the pitch you want until it fills up a power meter, and then releasing/re-pressing it just at the right moment. Instead, you only need a single button press, corresponding to the smallest point on a rapidly expanding and contracting circle, like shooting free throws in old timey basketball video games. I walked a couple batters, but also struck out two, in my first inning of work. Coming up to the plate, I was surprised to see a moveable target in the strike zone, presumably representing where I wanted to swing. This is the same setup as the All-Star Baseball's of the late 90's, but with one extremely important difference - in the old N64 classics, they showed you where the ball was heading, giving you a point of reference for your own target. In this system, you just have to guess. I ended up hitting a home run in my first ever at bat - a lined shot from Yoenis Cespedes that literally hit off the right field foul pole - but my next three batters proceeded to strike out swinging. Then when I gave up a home run to Jacoby Ellsbury in the next inning, I knew it was time to leave this gameplay stuff for the birds and try out a little roster construction.

The layout of the roster management section is insanely in-depth. You can sort players not only by position, league (you can/must set lineups for all levels all the way down to A-ball), and overall rating, but by advanced statistics such as RC and WAR, salary, and how many option years that player has remaining. I knew right away that my All-Acquired exhibition series is not only going to look awesome to watch, but the teams will also be super fun to put together with this new and improved user interface. I'm still in the dark as far as when the rosters were finalized judging by the top two players in the Free Agent category: Johan Santana didn't sign with the Orioles until March 4, which makes sense, but Chris Getz caught on with the Blue Jays back on January 20. Could it be that there are just some inconsistencies when it comes to non-roster invitees? Or maybe not even baseball video game programmers pay as much attention to the MLB transactions column as I do...

While I might be done with trying to actually play the baseball aspect of the game (I'm not the first to complain about the offensive woes of this series), the overall experience looks like a lot of fun. I'm definitely looking forward to hours of roster tinkering and to getting more familiar with the songs on the soundtrack, and to using the game as a simulation engine to preview alternate realities. It would have been nice to experience the game in the full graphical splendor of the PS4, but knowing me, I won't get around to buying a baseball game for that system until the PS5 is released.

Thursday, April 10, 2014

Non-FastCast Hero: Victor Martinez

I made a snarky tweet last night that was poorly-timed, inadequately researched and which might have contributed to taking the karmic wind out of the Dodgers' sails in the late going. It was the middle of the 10th inning, Tigers catcher/first baseman Victor Martinez had just hit a go-ahead home run, Los Angeles's pitcher slot was coming up first in the inning (at least according to MLB.com's Gameday app) and Yasiel Puig was not in the starting lineup. So I made the strategic suggestion that he might pinch hit to lead off the inning, if he promised not to slide. Had I looked at the game summary, I would have known that a) Gameday gave me some wrong information and it was actually Hanley Ramirez due to hit first, and b) the speculation was all moot anyway because Puig had already come in to pinch hit in the 9th inning. Well, now my mistake is forever enshrined in a server deep in the Library of Congress... but it's from mistakes that you learn the most, right?

Speaking of learning, "watching" the Tigers shift their lineup construction to play in Dodger Stadium bespeaks a competitive spirit that is hard not to admire, despite how much I want to see them not win any more playoff games (especially against the A's, but also in general - because of their history against the A's). Victor Martinez, primarily a DH since signing with Detroit in 2011, has expressed a willingness to move back behind the plate on a more regular basis, specifically for series in NL ballparks such as this one. What's more, when the game went into extra innings, first baseman Miguel Cabrera shifted from first to third, allowing V-Mart to remove his mask and pads, and finish the game at a less strenuous position (he is 35 years old and missed all of 2012 with a knee injury, after all).

#DigTheDreads
I put "watching" in quotes in the previous paragraph because without cable (or satellite) or MLB.tv, it's difficult to really watch any baseball action except the highlights, which is why I pay so much attention to MLB.com's FastCast. Speaking of which, Martinez's heroic extra-inning performance didn't even merit the cold-open highlight spot on yesterday's FastCast. That honor went to Jayson Werth, whose 8th inning grand slam put the Nationals on top of the Marlins. I guess Detroit's win makes more sense if you see it in the context of Los Angeles mounting an impressive comeback against Joe Nathan to tie the game in the 9th, only to have their own closer Kenley Jansen give up the lead they would never regain. Also featured in yesterday's FastCast was Ervin Santana's Braves debut, in which he's showing off some pretty groovy dreads.

While browsing around MLB's media archive after watching this morning's show, I discovered that MLB puts out a FastCast not just every day of the major league season, or even every day of spring training, but every day of the year! I had previously resisted signing up for MLB.tv because it's seriously doubtful that I'd do anything else with my time if I had access to every pitch of the MLB season at my fingertips. But knowing that there is an archive of daily highlight reels, documenting not only in-game events, but also off-the-field news, is a slippery slope in itself. I still need to leave some time in the day to play MLB 14: The Show...

Tuesday, April 1, 2014

FastCast Hero #1: Neil Walker

Every day (or at least every day that I've cared to check) the good folks at MLB Advanced Media put out a nifty video recap of the day's baseball action called the FastCast. Each of these expertly narrated pieces generally feature one highlight (or a group of related highlights) as a cold open before going through the rest of the games. The cold open highlight yesterday (Opening Day, 3/31/14) featured Pirates 2B Neil Walker hitting a walk-off home run. On the surface, this event bodes well in terms of momentum for a Pittsburgh team/fan base that had been without a winning season for two decades before last year.

But now I'd like to talk a little more about Neil himself. He's a hometown hero of sorts, born in Pittsburgh in 1985 and drafted by the Pirates in the first round in 2004. His best offensive season was 2010, in which an .811 OPS and 12.0 fantasy points per game earned him top 5 of Rookie of the Year voting. Last year, he actually scored the highest rWAR of his career (4.0, after averaging 2.4 his first three years) due to a drastic improvement with his defense (according to baseball reference, his glove was worth 1.2 wins alone). According to MLB, Walker was ranked 228 overall, or roughly 15th among second basemen, making him not draftworthy in most leagues.

However, Walker does end up on at least one fantasy team of note this year: the Virgo Maidens. His big Opening Day performance helped put his astrological team pretty even in their matchup with the Pisces Fish as the second day of the season draws to a close. Pisces had some 2B trouble themselves with their projected opening day starter Jurickson Profar going down with an injury. The absence of Profar (who dropped from 126 to 380 in MLB's ranks after the injury) is not nearly as troubling for the Fish as it is for the Rangers because a) Texas has to deal with his absence in real life, and b) Pisces has Dustin Ackley (ranked 283) and Dan Uggla (340) in the depth chart as opposed to Josh Wilson (unranked) and Donnie Murphy (824, but who incidentally is also a Pisces, but not on their 40-man roster).

Pisces is also of course dealing with the extended absence of Mr. ESPN the Magazine cover story himself Clayton Kershaw, who went on the DL for the first time in his career after signing a record breaking deal. Coincidence? Probably not, considering he was shuttled back and forth to Australia in a publicity stunt, resulting in a shortened spring training and unfamiliar preparation rhythms. But maybe as the new face of the storied Dodgers franchise, he should be able to be a durable warrior and pitch through any kind of adversity. But then again, just ask how well that worked out for Los Angeles's previous poster boy, Matt Kemp. Kemp (53), meanwhile, wouldn't even help his astrology team, the Libra Scales, if he weren't on the DL - currently he's behind Andrew McCutchen (4), Carlos Gonzalez (5), Bryce Harper (19), and Jose Bautista (40) for the available OF/DH spots (not to mention neck and neck with Yoenis Cespedes (49) and Starling Marte (56) on the bench). But before you gawk at how unfair that offensive force is for one Astrological sign, keep in mind that their only 1B eligible player within MLB's top 860 is free agent Ty Wigginton. Funny how the universe has it's own way of working things out.

Tying it all back together to yesterday's (it is almost not even yesterday's) MLB FastCast, the final highlight unfurled a fact that I was sadly already aware of: that Oakland's loss to Cleveland makes it a record 10 straight opening day losses for the A's. But hey, even Jason Giambi's A's (in fact especially Jason Giambi's A's) were famous for starting off slow and heating up in the second half. Now that Giambi's on the Indians, let's see if the traditions collide... but not until tomorrow, on account of all the rain.

Thursday, March 20, 2014

The Harsh Reality of Fantasy Ranks

Photo from Sporting News, via Twitter
Yesterday afternoon, the baseball community saw something nobody ever wants to see: a pitcher getting struck in the face with a line drive. The pitcher was Aroldis Chapman, star closer for the Cincinnati Reds, and everyone involved in the sport is (or should be) sending their thoughts and prayers to him and his friends/family. Word is that the Cuban fireballer will need facial surgery that will keep him out of action for 6-8 weeks, on top of any concussion-related concerns, and I'm sure he's getting the best medical care Bob Castellini's money can buy.

But what happens next is part of the harsh reality of baseball as a business (and the reason why we have depth charts), since someone has to close for the Reds for the next two months. Manager Bryan Price and GM Walt Jocketty still have a week and a half to make that decision, in which they will evaluate their options, both internal and external (I'm looking at you, Kevin Gregg). But another group of people, somewhat further removed from the game itself and with considerably less at stake in the matter, will be doing their own evaluations of Cincinnati's bullpen prospects. This group of course are the people who compile fantasy baseball rankings.

http://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/headshots/mlb/players/full/32557.png&w=350&h=254
In my last sounding of MLB.com's rankings (the weekend of 3/15, for my fantasy draft) Chapman ranked 56th overall - fourth among relief pitchers - and was designated by ESPN's fantasy staff as part of the "Cream of the Crop" at his position. Since his freak injury, the once and future closer's stock has fallen by a factor of more than 2, all the way to 117. Interestingly enough, this still makes him Cincinnati's highest-ranked reliever, as 2/3 of a season from Chapman is preferable to a full campaign from any of his prospective replacements. Assuming the Reds stay in-house, the most viable of these options looks to be 2013 rookie J.J. Hoover - acquired from the Braves for Juan Francisco in 2012 - who jumped in the rankings as much as Chapman fell: 55 spots, from 516 to 461. Two of the Reds' other three ranked relievers don't figure to play into the closer competition - Sean Marshall will remain the lefty specialist when he's ready to play regularly, while Sam LeCure will be relegated to middle relief work. But an interesting name to keep in mind is Jonathan Broxton, who recently rose more than 100 spots in the rankings. True it was from 731 to 628, but the big right hander has closed as recently as 2012, and if his surgically repaired right forearm is fully healed, he could be a prime candidate to return to that role.

While the process of transforming projected games missed into lost spots in the rankings may seem dehumanizing, remember that every crisis is also an opportunity. While I'm sure no one in the Reds bullpen has any positive feelings about this unfortunate injury befalling their leader, I'm also sure that one (or more) of them will jump at the chance to excel in his place. So here's hoping that Aroldis Champan's fractures heal quickly, the metal plate they're putting in his head holds steady, and that he doesn't have any residual effects from the minor concussion he sustained. And until that happens, here's hoping that another future star emerges from Cincinnati's relief corps.

Wednesday, March 19, 2014

Babe: Puig In The City

More on this later, but I need to reference an image from the web for my new fantasy team this year, so what better place to showcase that than on my blog! I know it's probably not the most original fantasy name this year, but I've gotta get some points for the picture, right?



UPDATE: The weekend before the first games of the MLB season has come and gone. Why is that date important? Because it's when my lone 2014 fantasy baseball team - Babe: Puig in the City - was drafted into being. I know fantasy guru Matthew Berry is fond of saying that no one wants to hear about your fantasy team, but I'm going to write about it anyway because a) I have a blog and b) I'm pretty happy about how things went. So please check out this graphical representation of my team's projected starting depth chart, headlined by (you guessed it) the Wild Horse himself, Yasiel Puig!


Well, technically the team is headlined by Paul Goldschmidt and Felix Hernandez, my first two picks, but Puig is the spiritual leader. This is only my second fantasy team with a name based on a particular player - my fantasy football entry last year, Keepin Up w the Kaeperdashians, finished last in my division after I didn't pick up Colin Kaepernick - so I figured I could only do better by reaching slightly for the team's namesake in the top of the third round. Well, technically it wasn't a reach, as both MLB.com and ESPN have Puig ranked within the top 10 outfielders, and he was the ninth player at his position taken in our draft. But it felt like a reach to me, spending such a high pick on someone with less than 400 MLB at-bats to his credit. There are concerns about his full season projectability, what with his questionable plate discipline and all-out, no-brakes style of play. But no one can deny the upside presented by his electrifying rookie season, and if he does end up batting leadoff, hopefully the Dodgers brass will emphasize on base percentage in his continuing development.

The other two starting outfielders I drafted (plus one more on the bench) also show tremendous upside, while, coincidentally, all being projected as their teams' leadoff hitters. Jason Heyward has already fulfilled his 20-20 potential in the past, but has had trouble staying on the field due to injuries. Billy Hamilton has dazzled the minor leagues with his speed over the past four years, but there are questions about whether he will be able to get on base enough to steal the bases necessary to make him valuable. Heyward's CF eligibility allowed me to grab Kole Calhoun as an insurance policy in case Hamilton falters (goffabid). Calhoun first caught my eye when a) I heard that he was the frontrunner to bat leadoff for the Angels and b) I saw that he was ranked nearly 100 spots better by MLB than by ESPN, while also being named in the positive side of the latter publication's sleeper/busts column.

Speaking of sleepers, check out this color-coded representation of my lineup in list format. The light blue in the T100 column (short for Top 100 Prospects, of which only Billy Hamilton is a member) represents sleeper status - just Calhoun and Doug Fister, whose stock should increase with a move to the NL. I wouldn't draft a potential bust, but if I did, that column would be shaded orange. But what I really want to highlight (no pun intended) is what's going on in the very first column. The number indicates the player's rank on 3/15/14, the day before our draft, while the color represents the player's positional status, as determined by the ESPN fantasy staff. Let's take a look:


A green highlight designates the "Cream of the Crop," for which there are an average of less than three players per position. Again, that's just my 2nd and 1st round picks: "King" Felix Hernandez and Paul "Muad-Dib" Goldschmidt, respectively. (Okay, I just made up that nickname, but Dune has been in the public consciousness lately.) Blue represents "Next Best Thing," a category in which only my SP2 Chris Sale belongs. Brown is "Steady As He Goes," a rather boring but dependable category that describes two of my infielders, Aaron Hill and Kyle Seager. But the color that holds the overwhelming majority on my team is purple, which asks the question "Where's the Ceiling?" (This is opposed by the question "Where's the Basement?" a question you can ask of none of my fantasy players.) I've already mentioned all three outfielders, but to that list we can add catcher Wilin Rosario, who jumped 34 points in MLB's rankings since the start of spring training to pass the likes of Joe Mauer, Brian McCann, and Carlos Santana. There's also Giants 1B Brandon Belt, who is developing into a fine young hitter indeed, and two Cardinals 2013 rookie pitchers - Trevor Rosenthal and Michael Wacha - who will occupy the closer and fifth starter spot for the defending NL champions in 2014.

As you can see, I've made mostly strong upside plays this year, hoping for breakout seasons from those poised for them. And for the most part, I'm very optimistic about my choices, as my extensive research and super reliable gut feelings give me good reason to believe that enough of my choices have a good probability of panning out in my favor. The only regret I have is passing over A's phenom Sonny Gray in the 15th round, opting instead to fill my shortstop slot with Asdrubal Cabrera. Now, all the ranking systems that I've seen have Cabrera ranked better than Gray - he even projects to earn more points in my Astrology league - but something about the move made me instantly remorseful. This feeling was augmented upon reading what might be Matthew Berry's final fantasy baseball related Love/Hate column, which was released slightly too late for me to make use of it in my draft. I still hope Sonny Gray has a great season; he needs to after the announcement that Oakland's projected opening day starter Jarrod Parker will be out for the year. But I can only hope that A. Cabrera does even better in his contract year!

And here's also hoping that everybody in the major leagues stays healthy, plays to the best of their abilities, and has a great time doing it, while also putting on an entertaining show for the fans, all season long. Because the bottom line is, it's almost time for another baseball season. And whether you follow the action at the ballpark, in the newspapers, or through the digital lens of your fantasy team, there's no greater way to spend the warm-weather half of the year.

Friday, March 7, 2014

The Clock King presents: A Math Problem

Watch This Clip, from my Batman: TAS Video Power Hour, just from 59:02 and pay attention to the lines:

"Not that it matters anymore," the Clock King gloats over Hamilton Hill in. The two of them are balanced on the nearly-level hour hand of Gotham City's largest clock tower. The mayor is in a supine position with his arms and legs tied behind him.

"Now that you have an appointment to keep, at three-fifteen precisely. With the Grim Reaper! (maniacal laugh)"

Temple Fugate's nefariously clever plan might be gruesomely effective - (from earlier in the episode) "At three fifteen on the dot those hands will come together and you'll be crushed like an insect" - depending on how the clock was constructed, and of course what type of insect you're talking about. It's of course a reference to when, years ago, haggard efficiency expert Temple Fugate lost a court case that sent him into financial ruin, caused when disaster struck after young lawyer Hamilton Hill told him to break out of his routine by taking his coffee break fifteen minutes later than usual... at 3:15pm.

But, ironically enough, what "the creep with the clocks" - as he is first referred to by Batman - is wrong about, is THE TIME when those two hands would come together. By 3:15, the hour hand would have already moved about a quarter of the way between 3 and 4, still quite far from the imposing minute hand of doom. Can anybody tell me what time Mayor Hill's untimely demise ACTUALLY WOULD HAVE OCCURRED, had Batman not heroically saved the day? No seriously, I don't know the answer. I never was able to grasp the practical applications of trigonometry.


Additional Episode Note: The Clock King made a second appearance in this Season 2 episode Time Out of Joint. In this go-round, he has a disgustingly too overpowered weapon that lets him slow down time. (It's unclear as to whether it allows him to turn back time... or TURN BACK TAIOME as Cher would sing.) Either way, it was from a time towards the end of the original run of the series when the episodes got a little more fantastical, but there are also some of my all-time favorites on the third DVD collection. Not to do any corporate shout-outs in this innocent primarily sports and entertainment blog, but as Google already knows, there are a lot of YouTube users who would love to see this show available on NetFlix. Or maybe at the very least on Amazon Prime? I mean you can buy it on Amazon regular. I just think making any kind of Batman more widely available is a good thing for our culture in general.


The Shakespeare reference in the title clearly implies
that our villain has run out of things to smoke...

Tuesday, March 4, 2014

Thoughts About NL Central Lineups

Well, here they are, 2014 projected lineups the final five teams. I can't believe it's already time to wave goodbye to this series, seeing as we're still three weeks away from faux-pening day in Australia, which leaves plenty of time for Spring Training ups and downs to throw my predictions into disarray. Not one or two, but three playoff teams came out of this division, so it's a fittingly powerful way to go out. Let's start with the NL Champion St. Louis Cardinals:


New acquisition Peter Bourjos will likely push John Jay out of center field and might very well push Matt Carpenter out of the leadoff spot, since I don't know who else would bat second. Plus I'd rather have him there anyway, a lefty doubles machine in front of the big power hitters like Matt Holliday and Yadier Molina. GM John Mozeliak brought in some new faces for the middle infield: convicted cheater Jhonny Peralta will take on the full-time shortstop job after playing some left field for the Tigers in last year's postseason, while Mark Ellis will provide backup at second base for MLB's #58 prospect Kolten Wong. Even after his strong performance last year, Michael Wacha isn't taking his spot in the rotation for granted, which is wise with swingman Joe Kelly hanging around and pornography enthusiast Carlos Martinez potentially able to start in the near future. Overall this is a very strong team with very few weaknesses that only looks to get better in the future (exhibit A: #3 prospect Oscar Taveras on the 40 man roster).


After the Pirates had their first winning season in 20 years, they didn't do too much to improve the team during the off-season. But with a superstar like Andrew McCutchen anchoring the lineup and strong talented up-and-comers like Starling Marte and Gerrit Cole working their way towards stardom, you don't necessarily have to do too much. Gaby Sanchez and Jose Tabata will try to replace departed midseason acquisitions Justin Morneau and Marlon Byrd, although Chris McGuinness and Andrew Lambo are potential left-handed platoon partners. According to MLB's player rankings, Edinson Volquez has the inside track on the fifth starter spot, although he'll have competition (what else is new?) from 2013 rookie Jeff Locke (who would likely have much better chances if he hadn't flamed out down the stretch last year), swingman Jeanmar Gomez, and youngster Brandon Cumpton.


However few moves Pittsburgh made to improve the lineup, Cincinnati made fewer. Which means they're counting on big injury comebacks from Johnny Cueto in the rotation and Ryan Ludwick in the outfield. The Reds are also betting big on #37 prospect Billy Hamilton to get on base enough in the leadoff spot to make use of his blazing speed. It's a lot of pressure to put on a 23-year-old, but if you steal 155 bases in the minors, people are going to have some expectations. Unlike Michael Wacha, after filling in for Cueto for the brunt of last season, Tony Cingrani can look forward to a full year starting every fifth day. Like the other teams in this division, Cincinnati has a pretty strong swingman/long reliever in Alfredo Simon, but in my lineup I put the guys who are most likely to get a lot of appearances setting up rather than the ones who might rack up more points throwing lower leverage innings.


The biggest question surrounding the Brewers is how Ryan Braun will perform after his yearlong suspension from baseball. The next biggest question for Milwaukee is who will play first base. Juan Francisco is the best option on the roster, but NRI's Mark Reynolds and Lyle Overbay likely have a better shot of holding down the job. Speaking of holding down the job, this could be the first season in almost a decade that Rickie Weeks doesn't start at second base, although he might platoon with Scooter Gennett against lefties. New acquisition Matt Garza might get the chance to start on opening day, but he's pretty similar statistically to Marco Estrada and Kyle Lohse. Meanwhile, Yovani Gallardo's stock has really fallen since his days as the team's ace just a few years ago. This is another deep bullpen thanks to the acquisitions of former closer Francisco Rodriguez and lefty Will Smith. And if anything should happen to any of their starters, Tom Gorzelanny, Tyler Thornburg, and Alfredo Figaro can all start in a pinch.


I really wasn't sure who would bat leadoff for the Cubs. Junior Lake would stole some bases in the minors and I recently saw that he was listed as a Topps 2014 "Power Player" so he's as good a choice as any I guess. If/when non-roster invitee Emilio Bonifacio makes the team, he could see some time at the top of the order as well, as he can play just about anywhere and is much more accomplished offensively than Darwin Barney. Chicago has the distinction of likely having not one but two rotation spots up for competition during the spring. Hammel and Arrieta are the frontrunners, but they brought in James McDonald to provide competition and former Rangers prospect Justin Grimm pitched very well after coming over in the trade for Matt Garza. The Cubs are also the only team in the division to bring in a new closer in Jose Veras, not that a) Kevin Gregg will be such a tough act to follow or b) there will be a surplus of leads to save. Them's those lovable losers for ya.


So those are my predictions that I made to the best of my ability with the not insignificant amount of information I gathered for the purpose, and I'm sticking to them, whether I like it or not, cuz they're on the Internet now. That is, until someone gets hurt or one of the few remaining important free agents get signed. So there's nothing left to do now but watch the spring games and see how things shape up before opening day.

Monday, March 3, 2014

Thoughts About AL Central Lineups

Two more divisions to go! This one features the most GIF-worthy pitcher in baseball: the AL Central.


The biggest change in the Tigers lineup from last year is the absence of power hitting first baseman Prince Fielder, who was traded to the Rangers for power hitting second baseman Ian Kinsler (left). Texas's former leadoff hitter will likely vacate his familiar spot in the lineup for a more traditional power position in the middle of the order, as I don't see Austin Jackson or Torii Hunter moving anywhere. This move also allows for a couple key players to return to familiar defensive positions: Miguel Cabrera can shift back across the diamond to first base and top prospect Nick Castellanos can go back to third base. With Castellanos (pronounced "Cast-eh-YAN-os, according to Grapefruit League announcers) vacating left field, GM Dave Dombrowski brought Rajai Davis to Detroit to platoon with Andy Dirks. (Editor's Note: Dirks, the lefty, will likely get more playing time, but I put Davis in the projected lineup because I like to highlight new acquisitions.) Speaking of lefties, Drew Smyly, who excelled in the bullpen last year, will have the unenviable task to try and replace Doug Fister (traded to Washington) in the rotation. Also, I normally like to include a lefty in the projected bullpen, but I just don't trust Phil Coke to produce over a full season, although perhaps having an All-Star closer on the roster will remove some of the pressure.


Cleveland's lineup has some of the more interesting questions I've come across so far, the biggest surrounding Carlos Santana. Based on my points system, Santana was the highest scoring catcher last year, but the emergence of Yan Gomes behind the plate and the inconsistencies of Lonnie Chisenhall at third base, have gotten the Indians seriously considering moving Santana to the hot corner. But if that happens, would Ryan Raburn be the full-time DH? I know you never like to see a 28-year-old athletic guy like Santana become a full-time DH, but I would rather see Mike Aviles at third if Chisenhall struggles. This should be a prime storyline to watch throughout the spring. Based on MLB's rankings, Carlos Carrasco looks like the front runner to win Cleveland's fifth starter spot, but they also brought in former starters Aaron Harang and Shaun Marcum on minor league contracts to provide competition. They also signed former closer John Axford to try to return to his All-Star form he achieved with Milwaukee.


Anyone who read Rob Neyer back when he was in charge of ESPN's Sweetspot blog knows the frustration that comes with following the Royals, but it looks very likely that that frustration might be coming to an end very soon. The core players Alex Gordon, Eric Hosmer, Billy Butler, and Salvador Perez look like they're all reaching their prime together and new acquisitions Nori Aoki and Omar Infante will bolster the top and bottom of Kansas City's lineup, respectively. Jason Vargas wasn't heralded as a top flight pitching acquisition, but he does add depth to a rotation headlined by workhorse James Shields and that has top prospect Yordano Ventura on the way. The deep bullpen, led by the AL's top closer Greg Holland, could include Wade Davis, who seriously disappointed in his brief time as a starter last year, provided Danny Duffy can hold down the fifth starter spot. Look at this club as a sleeper Wild Card contender.


What is it with AL Central and All-Star catchers vacating their positions? The $23 million question for the Twins is whether Joe Mauer can hit like a first baseman after signing a huge contract as a catcher. The $2.75 million question, namely when rookie Josmil Pinto will be ready to take over as the new backstop of the future. Minnesota was willing to bet that it's not until at least part way through 2014, as they signed Kurt Suzuki as a stopgap for the above sum. Expect a spring competition for starting DH between Chris Parmelee, Chris Colabello, and even Aaron Hicks, who could push Alex Presley to left and Josh Willingham to DH if he wins a starting spot like he did last year. Upgrades to a laughably bad rotation came in the form of Ricky Nolasco (who wasn't even a #1 starter with the Marlins) and Phil Hughes (for whom they're desperately hoping that a change of scenery is the answer).


The White Sox made a couple of big moves that significantly changed the face of their last place lineup from last year. The first was the signing of Cuban slugger Jose Abreu, which pushes Paul Konerko, the face of the franchise for the last 15 years, into a bench role. I guess not everyone can ride off into the sunset as gracefully as Todd Helton. The other move brought in a new leadoff hitter and third baseman, both former Diamondbacks prospects. Rookie 3B Matt Davidson transfers his prospect status to Chicago (he was MVP of the Futures Game last year) while CF Adam Eaton (not to be confused with the former Padres pitcher) had his two potential breakout years spoiled due to injury. If (goffabid) he goes down again, Alejandro De Aza could shift back to center: right now he's projected to platoon with Dayan Viciedo in left field in order to give former Tigers prospect Avisail Garcia a shot in right. The second above mentioned move also sent LHP Hector Santiago to the Angels, which opens up a spot in the rotation for Erik Johnson (not to be confused with the "Cliffs of Dover" guitarist).

Saturday, March 1, 2014

Thoughts About NL East Lineups

Alright, past the halfway point! Let's go ahead and jump right into the lineups:


The utter lack of yellow in this lineup highlights Braves GM Frank Wren's "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" philosophy. The only major league acquisition liable to get significant playing time is Ryan Doumit, the third catcher on the roster (or second, if you count Evan Gattis as primarily an outfielder) with Wren instead opting to dole out long term extensions to no fewer than four of his key organizational building blocks - Freddie Freeman (right) got eight years, Andrelton Simmons seven, Julio Teheran six, and Craig Kimbrel four. And why should he tinker too much with a roster that won 96 games last year and could possibly improve on that number with full seasons from Jason Heyward and Brandon Beachy, and with B.J. Upton and Dan Uggla embodying the lyric from the Damn Yankees song Heart: "We gotta get better, cuz we can't get woise." Sometimes regression towards the mean can be a good thing.

The team's most glaring lack (although it might not be a statistically significant lack) is a prototypical leadoff hitter. B.J. Upton has led off in the past, but he's not going to bat anywhere but 8th until he can improve on that .557 OPS from last year. Andrelton Simmons has flashed 20-steal speed in the minors, but an OBP under .300 (.296) is not gonna cut it at the top of the order. You'd like to have Jason Heyward's left-handed bat in a more traditional power position, but I don't see many other options for manager Fredi Gonzalez in this spot. Even at age 23, Alex Wood has shown that he has little left to prove in the minors and should have every opportunity to lock down the fifth starter spot. But if he struggles come mid-May, the Braves should have Gavin Floyd back from Tommy John surgery and ready to contribute, plus there's non-roster invitee Freddy Garcia to provide additional depth.


Unlike the Braves, the Nationals disappointed in the season after they decided to shut down their best pitcher for their first postseason appearance in more than 30 years. But like Atlanta, Washington didn't make any significant changes to their lineup. Their biggest offensive acquisition was bringing in Nate McLouth from across the beltway to ride the bench and provide insurance in case Bryce Harper can't keep his face away from those pesky outfield walls. The pitching staff was another story, as a pair of trades brought in big time SP4 upgrade Doug Fister and former Oakland fan favorite Jerry Blevins, who will get most of the bullpen work against lefties, joining former closers Tyler Clippard and Drew Storen in setting up current closer Rafael Soriano. I think Tanner Roark's strong end to 2013 will make him the front runner for the ever elusive fifth starter spot, but don't count out left-hander Ross Detwiler who has more experience in the position.


I went back and forth for a while about New York's first base situation: the alternative to what's presented above is to have Ike Davis - the poster child for "struggled mightily" in 2013 - at first, with Lucas Duda shifting to left field, and one of the Youngs (Chris or Eric) returning to a the fourth outfielder role they experienced before coming to the Mets (with Oakland and Colorado, respectively). My gut tells me though that if Davis has any kind of a strong spring - he's off to a good start with this sweet shot in his spring debut - the Mets will trade him (maybe to the Pirates?) rather than risk another demotion-worthy slow start. But I have been wrong before. Again, the fifth starter spot is a bit of a mess - I gave the nod to Jenrry Mejia because of his strong showing in five starts last year, but it could just as easily go to swingman Carlos Torres or minor league invitees Jeremy Hefner, Daisuke Matsuzaka, or John Lannan. Likewise for spots in the bullpen, with such established veterans as Jose Valverde and Kyle Farnsworth signed to minor league deals with invites to big league camp. Let the spring competition begin!


It's always a bit of a letdown for me when a free agent signs with a team he's played for in the past, but the Phillies needed a right-handed bat to break up all those lefties, so GM Ruben Amaro Jr. (left) brought back Marlon Byrd after the breakout year that never came when he was with Philadelphia. He also signed a right-handed starter to supplement their two lefty aces, although A.J. Burnett will likely slot in after both Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels in the rotation, at least as soon as the latter recovers from his biceps issue. Unlike most teams, it appears that Philly's rotation is pretty much set, barring a surge from Cuban star Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez. The same cannot be said for the bullpen - remember when Mike Adams was their second-highest paid reliever? Cuz it's happening now. It could be a longer bridge than the Ben Franklin to get from this team's starters to closer Jonathan Papelbon.


If it looks like the 2013 statistics from some of the key Marlins players are missing, that's because converting second baseman Rafael Furcal missed the entire year due to injury and world traveller Casey McGehee spent last season in Japan, where he parlayed his 28 home runs and 891 OPS into a major league contract. (Fun fact: his replacement at 3B for the Rakuten Golden Eagles will be former Yankees 3B Kevin Youkilis, who will hope to make a similar stateside comeback in 2015.) Miami certainly has some youthful promise in the lineup, with 2013 top-100 prospects Christian Yelich (age 22) and Marcell Ozuna (23) lined up for regular spots. The rotation is just as young with the average age clocking in just above or just below 24, depending on whether the fifth starter spot goes to 27-year-old Tom Koehler or 29-year-old Kevin Slowey. My advice to Marlins fans: get used to the divisional basement for the foreseeable future.

Friday, February 28, 2014

Thoughts About AL East Lineups

One team from this division won the World Series last year. Another spent nearly $440 million on  big ticket free agents this off-season. If you want excitement and headlines, there's no better place to turn than the AL East. First up, your world champion BAHSTAHN REHD SUOHX!


This lineup doesn't look all that incredibly different than the one that many pundits predicted to finish in last place at this time last year. It might even look a little worse, with the losses of Jacoby Ellsbury, Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Stephen Drew (stay tuned) via free agency. However, the addition of A.J. Pierzynski and a full season from #2 prospect Xander Bogaerts should help the cause. Jackie Bradley Jr. flamed out after being in the projected starting lineup last year, and if he has a repeat performance (and if Grady Sizemore's comeback attempt fizzles), New Englanders might be seeing a lot of Jonny Gomes and Mike Carp while Daniel Nava does his best impression of a center fielder. With Mike Napoli's two-year extension, he's only two years away from the original five year deal he signed with the Red Sox last off-season, before a physical revealed his degenerative hip disease. Just ask his 23 homers and gigantic beard if that's slowed him down at all...

With a full season of Clay Buchholz and Jake Peavy, this rotation could look pretty formidable. Its overall depth took a hit when Ryan Dempster announced he would not play in 2014, but the BoSox brass quickly addressed that issue by signing Chris Capuano to compete with Felix Doubront for the fifth starter spot. My theory though is that Capuano, a New England native, will be doing plenty of long relief this year, and loving it. If you're concerned about Koji Uehara entering his first year at the top of any team's relief depth chart (last year he was behind Joel Hanrahan and Andrew Bailey before injuries pushed him into the spotlight, where he spun a 1.09 ERA in 74.1 innings), you're not alone. Boston signed the Cardinals' ad hoc 2013 closer Edward Mujica in case the 38-year-old Japan native struggles with the pressure.


Hey look who's still at the top of Tampa Bay's rotation! It's David "I didn't get traded, because no team would meet the Rays' asking" Price! If this team wasn't in "win now" mode already, the non-move of holding onto former Cy Young winner Price did more to accentuate that and energize the clubhouse than any blockbuster trade could have. Note that I still put Jeremy Hellickson in the SP5 slot even though he just had elbow surgery and will be out for probably two months, which means we could see a competition between top prospect Jake Odorizzi and minor league acquisition Erik Bedard for his early replacement. I'm sure this will be one of the more fluid batting orders in the league, but I think it makes the most sense to put rookie of the year Wil Myers in the two-hole to maximize his plate appearances and let us see what he can do over a full season.


The two big changes in the Orioles lineup are the bulging biceps of Nelson Cruz in the middle of the order and the lanky inconsistency of Ubaldo Jimenez at the top of their rotation. Sneaking in and snatching up two of the more prized free agents on the market moments before the start of Spring Training ensured that no one would speak of Baltimore as a 2013-14 also-ran, while building some serious headline momentum. However, they have failed to conjure up a viable replacement at second base when Brian Roberts left via free agency, as they have failed to do for many previous seasons when Brian Roberts was unavailable due to injury. Ryan Flaherty is the prime candidate to make the jump from utility infielder, but he could have some competition from Jemile Weeks, looking to rediscover his rookie form from 2011 in Oakland, and from top prospect and Team Netherlands veteran Jonathan Schoop. The current rotation setup doesn't leave room for Korean All-Star Suk-Min Yoon, but extra pitchers tend to find a way to be needed over the course of a long season.


Let's do some math: 155 + 153 + 85 + 45 = 438. Now multiply those numbers by one million (1,000,000) and put a dollar sign ($) in front of it. That's how much money New York spent on their newest starting pitcher (Masahiro Tanaka), center fielder (Jacoby Ellsbury), catcher (Brian McCann) and right fielder (Carlos Beltran). Big spending like that has prompted oft-injured first baseman Mark Teixeira to conjecture that the Yankees have gone "back to being the Yankees." If he can get his OPS closer to .800 than .600 and if longtime shortstop Derek Jeter can play like he was 25 (or even 35) again, that'll at least make up for the suspension of third baseman Alex Rodriguez for the whole season. Again in the fifth starter uncertainty department (who doesn't have it these days?), if Michael Pineda doesn't get healthy enough to justify the 2012 trade of Jesus Montero, we can expect to see more David Phelps spot starts. David Robertson is the division's second middle reliever trying to make the jump to closer (along with Tommy Hunter of the Orioles), but he's the only one that will have to replace a future first ballot Hall of Famer. Outs in the ninth inning are just like outs in any other inning, right?


In a mirror image of the Red Sox's 2013/2014 outlooks, this lineup is very similar to the one many pundits predicted would finish first at this time last year. With no meaningful acquisitions (sorry Dioner Navarro), I don't see this team taking a big step forward, even granted that they'll have much lower expectations this time around without the blockbuster trades of last off-season. In addition to starting a rookie at second base (although Maicer Izturis is always there to drain at-bats for John Gibbons the same way he did for Mike Scioscia back in Anaheim), their fifth starter spot is also a mess. In addition to the underwhelming but probably most consistent choice Todd Redmond, there's also swingman Esmil Rogers, Twins castoff Liam Hendriks, and young right handers Drew Hutchison and Kyle Drabek. It looks like it's going to be a long, cold spring north of the border this year.