Two more divisions to go! This one features the most GIF-worthy pitcher in baseball: the AL Central.
The biggest change in the Tigers lineup from last year is the absence of power hitting first baseman Prince Fielder, who was traded to the Rangers for power hitting second baseman Ian Kinsler (left). Texas's former leadoff hitter will likely vacate his familiar spot in the lineup for a more traditional power position in the middle of the order, as I don't see Austin Jackson or Torii Hunter moving anywhere. This move also allows for a couple key players to return to familiar defensive positions: Miguel Cabrera can shift back across the diamond to first base and top prospect Nick Castellanos can go back to third base. With Castellanos (pronounced "Cast-eh-YAN-os, according to Grapefruit League announcers) vacating left field, GM Dave Dombrowski brought Rajai Davis to Detroit to platoon with Andy Dirks. (Editor's Note: Dirks, the lefty, will likely get more playing time, but I put Davis in the projected lineup because I like to highlight new acquisitions.) Speaking of lefties, Drew Smyly, who excelled in the bullpen last year, will have the unenviable task to try and replace Doug Fister (traded to Washington) in the rotation. Also, I normally like to include a lefty in the projected bullpen, but I just don't trust Phil Coke to produce over a full season, although perhaps having an All-Star closer on the roster will remove some of the pressure.
Cleveland's lineup has some of the more interesting questions I've come across so far, the biggest surrounding Carlos Santana. Based on my points system, Santana was the highest scoring catcher last year, but the emergence of Yan Gomes behind the plate and the inconsistencies of Lonnie Chisenhall at third base, have gotten the Indians seriously considering moving Santana to the hot corner. But if that happens, would Ryan Raburn be the full-time DH? I know you never like to see a 28-year-old athletic guy like Santana become a full-time DH, but I would rather see Mike Aviles at third if Chisenhall struggles. This should be a prime storyline to watch throughout the spring. Based on MLB's rankings, Carlos Carrasco looks like the front runner to win Cleveland's fifth starter spot, but they also brought in former starters Aaron Harang and Shaun Marcum on minor league contracts to provide competition. They also signed former closer John Axford to try to return to his All-Star form he achieved with Milwaukee.
Anyone who read Rob Neyer back when he was in charge of ESPN's Sweetspot blog knows the frustration that comes with following the Royals, but it looks very likely that that frustration might be coming to an end very soon. The core players Alex Gordon, Eric Hosmer, Billy Butler, and Salvador Perez look like they're all reaching their prime together and new acquisitions Nori Aoki and Omar Infante will bolster the top and bottom of Kansas City's lineup, respectively. Jason Vargas wasn't heralded as a top flight pitching acquisition, but he does add depth to a rotation headlined by workhorse James Shields and that has top prospect Yordano Ventura on the way. The deep bullpen, led by the AL's top closer Greg Holland, could include Wade Davis, who seriously disappointed in his brief time as a starter last year, provided Danny Duffy can hold down the fifth starter spot. Look at this club as a sleeper Wild Card contender.
What is it with AL Central and All-Star catchers vacating their positions? The $23 million question for the Twins is whether Joe Mauer can hit like a first baseman after signing a huge contract as a catcher. The $2.75 million question, namely when rookie Josmil Pinto will be ready to take over as the new backstop of the future. Minnesota was willing to bet that it's not until at least part way through 2014, as they signed Kurt Suzuki as a stopgap for the above sum. Expect a spring competition for starting DH between Chris Parmelee, Chris Colabello, and even Aaron Hicks, who could push Alex Presley to left and Josh Willingham to DH if he wins a starting spot like he did last year. Upgrades to a laughably bad rotation came in the form of Ricky Nolasco (who wasn't even a #1 starter with the Marlins) and Phil Hughes (for whom they're desperately hoping that a change of scenery is the answer).
The White Sox made a couple of big moves that significantly changed the face of their last place lineup from last year. The first was the signing of Cuban slugger Jose Abreu, which pushes Paul Konerko, the face of the franchise for the last 15 years, into a bench role. I guess not everyone can ride off into the sunset as gracefully as Todd Helton. The other move brought in a new leadoff hitter and third baseman, both former Diamondbacks prospects. Rookie 3B Matt Davidson transfers his prospect status to Chicago (he was MVP of the Futures Game last year) while CF Adam Eaton (not to be confused with the former Padres pitcher) had his two potential breakout years spoiled due to injury. If (goffabid) he goes down again, Alejandro De Aza could shift back to center: right now he's projected to platoon with Dayan Viciedo in left field in order to give former Tigers prospect Avisail Garcia a shot in right. The second above mentioned move also sent LHP Hector Santiago to the Angels, which opens up a spot in the rotation for Erik Johnson (not to be confused with the "Cliffs of Dover" guitarist).
Alright, past the halfway point! Let's go ahead and jump right into the lineups:
The utter lack of yellow in this lineup highlights Braves GM Frank Wren's "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" philosophy. The only major league acquisition liable to get significant playing time is Ryan Doumit, the third catcher on the roster (or second, if you count Evan Gattis as primarily an outfielder) with Wren instead opting to dole out long term extensions to no fewer than four of his key organizational building blocks - Freddie Freeman (right) got eight years, Andrelton Simmons seven, Julio Teheran six, and Craig Kimbrel four. And why should he tinker too much with a roster that won 96 games last year and could possibly improve on that number with full seasons from Jason Heyward and Brandon Beachy, and with B.J. Upton and Dan Uggla embodying the lyric from the Damn Yankees song Heart: "We gotta get better, cuz we can't get woise." Sometimes regression towards the mean can be a good thing.
The team's most glaring lack (although it might not be a statistically significant lack) is a prototypical leadoff hitter. B.J. Upton has led off in the past, but he's not going to bat anywhere but 8th until he can improve on that .557 OPS from last year. Andrelton Simmons has flashed 20-steal speed in the minors, but an OBP under .300 (.296) is not gonna cut it at the top of the order. You'd like to have Jason Heyward's left-handed bat in a more traditional power position, but I don't see many other options for manager Fredi Gonzalez in this spot. Even at age 23, Alex Wood has shown that he has little left to prove in the minors and should have every opportunity to lock down the fifth starter spot. But if he struggles come mid-May, the Braves should have Gavin Floyd back from Tommy John surgery and ready to contribute, plus there's non-roster invitee Freddy Garcia to provide additional depth.
Unlike the Braves, the Nationals disappointed in the season after they decided to shut down their best pitcher for their first postseason appearance in more than 30 years. But like Atlanta, Washington didn't make any significant changes to their lineup. Their biggest offensive acquisition was bringing in Nate McLouth from across the beltway to ride the bench and provide insurance in case Bryce Harper can't keep his face away from those pesky outfield walls. The pitching staff was another story, as a pair of trades brought in big time SP4 upgrade Doug Fister and former Oakland fan favorite Jerry Blevins, who will get most of the bullpen work against lefties, joining former closers Tyler Clippard and Drew Storen in setting up current closer Rafael Soriano. I think Tanner Roark's strong end to 2013 will make him the front runner for the ever elusive fifth starter spot, but don't count out left-hander Ross Detwiler who has more experience in the position.
I went back and forth for a while about New York's first base situation: the alternative to what's presented above is to have Ike Davis - the poster child for "struggled mightily" in 2013 - at first, with Lucas Duda shifting to left field, and one of the Youngs (Chris or Eric) returning to a the fourth outfielder role they experienced before coming to the Mets (with Oakland and Colorado, respectively). My gut tells me though that if Davis has any kind of a strong spring - he's off to a good start with this sweet shot in his spring debut - the Mets will trade him (maybe to the Pirates?) rather than risk another demotion-worthy slow start. But I have been wrong before. Again, the fifth starter spot is a bit of a mess - I gave the nod to Jenrry Mejia because of his strong showing in five starts last year, but it could just as easily go to swingman Carlos Torres or minor league invitees Jeremy Hefner, Daisuke Matsuzaka, or John Lannan. Likewise for spots in the bullpen, with such established veterans as Jose Valverde and Kyle Farnsworth signed to minor league deals with invites to big league camp. Let the spring competition begin!
It's always a bit of a letdown for me when a free agent signs with a team he's played for in the past, but the Phillies needed a right-handed bat to break up all those lefties, so GM Ruben Amaro Jr. (left) brought back Marlon Byrd after the breakout year that never came when he was with Philadelphia. He also signed a right-handed starter to supplement their two lefty aces, although A.J. Burnett will likely slot in after both Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels in the rotation, at least as soon as the latter recovers from his biceps issue. Unlike most teams, it appears that Philly's rotation is pretty much set, barring a surge from Cuban star Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez. The same cannot be said for the bullpen - remember when Mike Adams was their second-highest paid reliever? Cuz it's happening now. It could be a longer bridge than the Ben Franklin to get from this team's starters to closer Jonathan Papelbon.
If it looks like the 2013 statistics from some of the key Marlins players are missing, that's because converting second baseman Rafael Furcal missed the entire year due to injury and world traveller Casey McGehee spent last season in Japan, where he parlayed his 28 home runs and 891 OPS into a major league contract. (Fun fact: his replacement at 3B for the Rakuten Golden Eagles will be former Yankees 3B Kevin Youkilis, who will hope to make a similar stateside comeback in 2015.) Miami certainly has some youthful promise in the lineup, with 2013 top-100 prospects Christian Yelich (age 22) and Marcell Ozuna (23) lined up for regular spots. The rotation is just as young with the average age clocking in just above or just below 24, depending on whether the fifth starter spot goes to 27-year-old Tom Koehler or 29-year-old Kevin Slowey. My advice to Marlins fans: get used to the divisional basement for the foreseeable future.
One team from this division won the World Series last year. Another spent nearly $440 million on big ticket free agents this off-season. If you want excitement and headlines, there's no better place to turn than the AL East. First up, your world champion BAHSTAHN REHD SUOHX!
This lineup doesn't look all that incredibly different than the one that many pundits predicted to finish in last place at this time last year. It might even look a little worse, with the losses of Jacoby Ellsbury, Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Stephen Drew (stay tuned) via free agency. However, the addition of A.J. Pierzynski and a full season from #2 prospect Xander Bogaerts should help the cause. Jackie Bradley Jr. flamed out after being in the projected starting lineup last year, and if he has a repeat performance (and if Grady Sizemore's comeback attempt fizzles), New Englanders might be seeing a lot of Jonny Gomes and Mike Carp while Daniel Nava does his best impression of a center fielder. With Mike Napoli's two-year extension, he's only two years away from the original five year deal he signed with the Red Sox last off-season, before a physical revealed his degenerative hip disease. Just ask his 23 homers and gigantic beard if that's slowed him down at all...
With a full season of Clay Buchholz and Jake Peavy, this rotation could look pretty formidable. Its overall depth took a hit when Ryan Dempster announced he would not play in 2014, but the BoSox brass quickly addressed that issue by signing Chris Capuano to compete with Felix Doubront for the fifth starter spot. My theory though is that Capuano, a New England native, will be doing plenty of long relief this year, and loving it. If you're concerned about Koji Uehara entering his first year at the top of any team's relief depth chart (last year he was behind Joel Hanrahan and Andrew Bailey before injuries pushed him into the spotlight, where he spun a 1.09 ERA in 74.1 innings), you're not alone. Boston signed the Cardinals' ad hoc 2013 closer Edward Mujica in case the 38-year-old Japan native struggles with the pressure.
Hey look who's still at the top of Tampa Bay's rotation! It's David "I didn't get traded, because no team would meet the Rays' asking" Price! If this team wasn't in "win now" mode already, the non-move of holding onto former Cy Young winner Price did more to accentuate that and energize the clubhouse than any blockbuster trade could have. Note that I still put Jeremy Hellickson in the SP5 slot even though he just had elbow surgery and will be out for probably two months, which means we could see a competition between top prospect Jake Odorizzi and minor league acquisition Erik Bedard for his early replacement. I'm sure this will be one of the more fluid batting orders in the league, but I think it makes the most sense to put rookie of the year Wil Myers in the two-hole to maximize his plate appearances and let us see what he can do over a full season.
The two big changes in the Orioles lineup are the bulging biceps of Nelson Cruz in the middle of the order and the lanky inconsistency of Ubaldo Jimenez at the top of their rotation. Sneaking in and snatching up two of the more prized free agents on the market moments before the start of Spring Training ensured that no one would speak of Baltimore as a 2013-14 also-ran, while building some serious headline momentum. However, they have failed to conjure up a viable replacement at second base when Brian Roberts left via free agency, as they have failed to do for many previous seasons when Brian Roberts was unavailable due to injury. Ryan Flaherty is the prime candidate to make the jump from utility infielder, but he could have some competition from Jemile Weeks, looking to rediscover his rookie form from 2011 in Oakland, and from top prospect and Team Netherlands veteran Jonathan Schoop. The current rotation setup doesn't leave room for Korean All-Star Suk-Min Yoon, but extra pitchers tend to find a way to be needed over the course of a long season.
Let's do some math: 155 + 153 + 85 + 45 = 438. Now multiply those numbers by one million (1,000,000) and put a dollar sign ($) in front of it. That's how much money New York spent on their newest starting pitcher (Masahiro Tanaka), center fielder (Jacoby Ellsbury), catcher (Brian McCann) and right fielder (Carlos Beltran). Big spending like that has prompted oft-injured first baseman Mark Teixeira to conjecture that the Yankees have gone "back to being the Yankees." If he can get his OPS closer to .800 than .600 and if longtime shortstop Derek Jeter can play like he was 25 (or even 35) again, that'll at least make up for the suspension of third baseman Alex Rodriguez for the whole season. Again in the fifth starter uncertainty department (who doesn't have it these days?), if Michael Pineda doesn't get healthy enough to justify the 2012 trade of Jesus Montero, we can expect to see more David Phelps spot starts. David Robertson is the division's second middle reliever trying to make the jump to closer (along with Tommy Hunter of the Orioles), but he's the only one that will have to replace a future first ballot Hall of Famer. Outs in the ninth inning are just like outs in any other inning, right?
In a mirror image of the Red Sox's 2013/2014 outlooks, this lineup is very similar to the one many pundits predicted would finish first at this time last year. With no meaningful acquisitions (sorry Dioner Navarro), I don't see this team taking a big step forward, even granted that they'll have much lower expectations this time around without the blockbuster trades of last off-season. In addition to starting a rookie at second base (although Maicer Izturis is always there to drain at-bats for John Gibbons the same way he did for Mike Scioscia back in Anaheim), their fifth starter spot is also a mess. In addition to the underwhelming but probably most consistent choice Todd Redmond, there's also swingman Esmil Rogers, Twins castoff Liam Hendriks, and young right handers Drew Hutchison and Kyle Drabek. It looks like it's going to be a long, cold spring north of the border this year.
Let's jump right into things with my hometown team, the Los Angeles Dodgers:
Wears 13 and was ranked 13. Coincidence?
A lot of this lineup is health dependent, as it features two oft-injureds - Matt Kemp and Hanley Ramirez - in crucial spots. Incredibly expensive fourth outfielder Andre Ethier (he's making $13mm in 2014 and is under contract for three more years after that) is around in case Kemp's ankle/shoulder/something else flares up. Former top 30 prospect Dee Gordon and LA's newest Cuban import Erisbel Arruebarr(u)ena provide options at shortstop - although it's possible we might see one of them take over anyway with Ramirez shifting to 3B like he tried to do in Miami a couple of years ago. We might also see one of them try the shift to 2B if LA's next-most-recent Cuban import Alex Guerrero can't handle the position.
Josh Beckett is ostensibly healthy going into the spring, but his inconsistencies over the last four years prompted the Dodgers to pick up lefty Paul Maholm on the cheap as insurance, causing his fantasy rankings to plummet from 283 to 456 now that he's not guaranteed a rotation spot. But given the injury history of the Dodgers in general, I wouldn't be surprised if Maholm made more than a few starts this year. The bullpen looks downright scary with not two, but FOUR former closers backing up Kenley Jansen. In addition to Wilson and Howell listed above (who closed for the Giants and the Rays, respectively), the team also has Chris Perez (Indians) and Brandon League (Mariners), plus burgeoning youngsters Paco Rodriguez and Chris Withrow. I don't predict a lot of late leads slipping away from this squad.
I mentioned the competition swirling around Arizona's shortstop and bullpen in my intro to this Projected Lineups series, but the real story about this team is the Mark Trumbo experiment. Sure his right handed power bat will provide protection for Paul Goldschmidt in the lineup, but does he have what it takes to play the outfield every day? Gerardo Parra might just have enough range for both of them, but he's better suited in right field. I wouldn't be surprised if Cody Ross had a lot of late-inning replacements. On the pitching side, last year's stats would suggest a 5th starter spot battle between Brandon McCarthy and Randall Delgado, but seeing as McCarthy is both more expensive and a free agent after this season, it makes sense for the D-Backs to let him build up some value for a potential mid-season trade.
Remember when the Giants won two of the last four World Series titles? If things go right for them this year, they might be able to make another deep playoff run. The protection is there for Buster Posey, Pablo Sandoval, and Angel Pagan (if they can all turn out full healthy seasons), with Hunter Pence signed to a long-term contract and Brandon Belt developing into a very solid hitter. San Francisco also needs a return to form of their former star pitchers Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum, plus they're banking on Tim Hudson (left) (replacing his former Big Three teammate from Oakland, Barry Zito) and Ryan Vogelsong to recover quickly from injuries that ended their respective seasons last year. Everything has to go perfectly, but I could see this team having a good chance to compete.
Although they tied with the Giants last year, I would not say the same about the Padres' ability to compete, even if everything goes right. I know San Diego is a popular sleeper pick this year, and I do see a lot of upside in a rotation with two former aces that also share the last names of one of the country's most recognizable presidential tickets (Ian Kennedy and Josh Johnson). But I just can't get past that mess of an outfield. Will Venable is the only must-start of the bunch ever since he started hitting against both lefties and righties. Carlos Quentin has big power upside, but his injury history and sometimes troublesome temperament are red flags. Ditto Cameron Maybin, except add in defensive upside, and omit the thing about temperament. If manager Bud Black wanted to go with a platoon at a corner outfield spot (with Venable possibly shifting to center field), Seth Smith and Chris Denorfia fit the bill, but neither are very exciting players. I feel like the best scenario they can hope for in 2014 is that Chase Headley returns to his 2012 form and can fetch a good return via trade. Rumor has it the Yankees are looking for someone to play there...
Ouch. Just, ouch. This team is living, breathing proof that a couple of fantasy studs does not an effective major league roster make. Beyond CarGo and Tulo (and the occasional homer from Wilin Rosario), this team doesn't have much that shines out. And to make matters worse, both of their top two pitchers have joined the perpetually-hurt Brett Anderson in dealing with injury concerns. At least they have Boone Logan to get those tough lefties, though, am I right? Going back to the top of the order, I firmly believe that Drew Stubbs will win the centerfield/leadoff battle over Charlie Blackmon and Corey Dickerson. But a better course of action might have been to NOT try and re-create the 2009 Minnesota Twins by signing Justin Morneau, which would allow them to move Michael Cuddyer to 1B and let two of those promising young outfielders play. But hey, I'm just a guy with opinions on the internet...
Tune in next time, as we travel across the country and look at the biggest-spending division in the league!
I've decided to start with the AL West, not because my unabashed favorite team plays there, but because the Non-Roster Invitee dropdown menu starts with three teams from the division. Going in order of last year's standings, here's my projected lineup (with 2013 stats and pre-2014 rankings) for a team I've spent a lot of the off-season thinking about: the Oakland Athletics:
Coco Crisp just signed a decent extension, which at his age might lay the groundwork for him ending his career as an Athletic, which I for one would thrilled to see, given the energy he's provided at the top of their lineup these last four years. I know the prevailing statistical theory is to bat your best hitter in the 2 hole, and last year that was definitely Josh Donaldson, but I'm not so sure some regression towards the mean isn't in his future. Plus, I think Donaldson plays with a lot of emotion, and I think he gets a mental boost out of being the guy in the prototypical power spot. I think it's for the opposite side of that same reason (i.e. keeping the pressure off) that Bob Melvin keeps Yoenis Cespedes out of the cleanup spot. That and the splitting up lefties and righties, and the fact that Brandon Moss is no slouch himself, what with the 30 HR and .337 average last year.
You like to see John Jaso at catcher rather than DH to optimize his bat, but even if you completely disregard positional scarcity, Jaso is a very talented hitter who gets on base prolifically. Also if Tommy Milone indeed fails to make the rotation, having Derek Norris play regularly is the only way to justify the 2011 trade for Gio Gonzalez. I would personally have the offensively minded Alberto Callaspo spend most of the time at 2B with Eric Sogard serving as a frequent defensive replacement, but I have a feeling we're going to see more of a straight platoon.
With Ron Washington's penchant for putting power in the leadoff spot (cf. Ian Kinsler until he was traded this off-season) I don't think there's much chance new acquisition #1 Shin-Soo Choo moves from the top of the order. But however the Rangers organize their 1-5, this is an extremely formidable lineup. Then again, I thought the same thing when it was A-Rod, Rafael Palmeiro, Andres Galarraga, and Ken Caminiti instead of Adrian Beltre, Prince Fielder (new acquisition #2) and Alex Rios. 2001 taught us that you can't win without pitching, and without a healthy Derek Holland and possibly Matt Harrison to start the year, there might be a lot of spot starts for Nick Tepesch and Tommy Hanson. I guess it's not too late for Texas to sign Ervin Santana, but I hope it doesn't come to that...
Where's this year's splashy free agent signing from the Angels? Joe Smith is a very capable bullpen arm and Raul Ibanez might hit the occasional home run, but they're no Josh Hamilton, Albert Pujols, or C.J. Wilson. Maybe Los Angeles (or is it Anaheim?) are taking the smarter, more subtle approach. They certainly are with Mike Trout's placement in the order, assuming he stays at #2 like he did last year. The MLB.com player preview certainly believes Pujols can stay healthy enough to play 1B, which would give relative unknown Kole Calhoun the chance to start in the outfield, since they pegged him with a ridiculously high ranking (in my opinion) for a player with just 247 MLB at-bats. Some people have also made some noise about Calhoun batting leadoff, but he would have to have an incredible spring for Mike Scioscia to trust him with that responsibility.
Seattle has one big new face and two rookies in high positions. Robinson Cano's monster 10-year free agent deal was undoubtedly the roster move news of the winter, but as I asked of the Rangers, do the Mariners have enough pitching to support their $240 million man? James Paxton and Taijuan Walker are two of the biggest names in pitching prospect-dom, and they performed very well in limited action last year. (Plus their buddy Danny Hultzen might join them in at some point in 2015 after he recovers from shoulder surgery.) But with Hisashi Iwakuma facing some injury issues (in addition to the dreaded regression towards the mean) and the built-in uncertainty with rookie pitchers, King Felix might have to rule a kingdom of one. Health is also a question for this team's next two big offensive acquisitions, Cory Hart and Logan Morrison. Both of whom are recovering from knee injuries, and with Franklin Gutierrez out for the year, one of them will be asked to play the outfield regularly.
The Astros have the hardest lineup to figure, but in a sense, they're also the team for which it matters the least. Moving unknowns like Robbie Grossman or spare parts like Jesus Guzman up or down in the batting order won't make the difference between 90 or 100 losses. The upside is that before too long we might see such talented prospects as George Springer (OF) and/or Jonathan Singleton (1B) take over and contribute before long. Going by the rankings on the pitching side, I must be missing something, because MLB has Dallas Keuchel (490, 20.8 ppg last year) ranked way above Jarred Cosart (624, 47.9 ppg and with more upside)... Unless the thing I'm missing is that Houston wants to keep the bigger prospect from hitting early arbitration by letting other folks start meaningless major league games. If so, then I am missing it no longer.
There you have it! Next time I will switch leagues but stay in the same geographical area for the NL West.
It's finally happening. After almost four long months without any baseball, all 30 teams have reported to their Spring Training camps (I'm looking at you, Colorado Rockies, the last team to have to show up) and start playing honest-to-goodness games tomorrow. Well, actually it's just the Yankees and the Tigers taking on a couple of college teams tomorrow, but the NEXT day, teams start playing honest-to-goodness games against each other. And that's a good enough reason for me to finalize my first 40-Man Rosters document of 2014. And in conjunction with this document, I will return to blogging with a series of posts outlining my take on what each team's lineup might look like.
I know that rosters aren't anywhere close to being finalized, as there are still some high-ish profile free agents out there (I'm looking at you, Ervin Santana, Stephen Drew, and Kendrys Morales). But if David Schoenfield at ESPN's SweetSpot blog can conjecture about starting lineups, I see no reason why I shouldn't give it a shot. But before getting into the lineups, I'd like to talk a little bit about the recent trends in fantasy rankings. Not a lot has changed since I first looked at MLB.com's Player Preview (which was, not coincidentally, the day they were released), but the movement of players up and down the hierarchy can tell us a lot about how the season might play out, even in the early going.
Here's a rudimentary chart of the top 30 players to show a statistically significant trend:
As you can see, the highest ranked player on this list - both in his old and new rank - is Matt Kemp, whose gimpy ankle will likely keep him from being ready for opening day in Australia... not that anyone is excited about the trip anyway. Kemp remains the team's #2 ranked outfielder - he was behind Cuban phenom Yasiel Puig either way - and while a change of 8 spots doesn't seem like much, it's a lot more telling when no one else around him changed at all. Depending on his health, Kemp is still a top 50 player, but this recent trend should give potential drafters pause. Cole Hamels, another high profile #2 (pitcher, behind Cliff Lee on the Phillies) dropped some ranks after it was revealed that shoulder troubles will keep him from starting on Opening Day. My prediction is that overall he'll do just fine pitching between Lee and newly acquired A.J. Burnett.
The top player to trend up is Nelson Cruz who just recently agreed to terms with the Orioles (although the deal has yet to be officially announced). My guess is that the gain of more than 20 ranks is due to the assumption that he was going to sign with the Mariners and play his home games at spacious Safeco field rather than the much more forgiving Camden Yards in Baltimore. Cruz's fellow new Oriole Ubaldo Jimenez actually LOST 10 ranks upon ending his 2014 Free Agency. I don't know if that also had anything to do with the park factors of his projected location vs. his actual location, but it seems curious nonetheless. Staying with Baltimore, projected closer Tommy Hunter got a bump of more than 40 ranks, presumably because the pundits believe that he'll have more opportunities to save games with a Cruz-enhanced offense.
I mentioned Seattle earlier as being linked to Nelson Cruz, and it seems like his signing elsewhere has affected the makeup of Seattle's outfield - that and the announcement that Franklin Gutierrez will sit out all of 2014 to nurse an ailing stomach. The two most likely candidates to take over center field, Dustin Ackley and Michael Saunders, both jumped nearly 30 ranks, although corner outfield/DH candidate Corey Hart dropped more than double that as his surgically repaired knee is still giving him some trouble. Barring a re-signing of Morales, look for Justin Smoak to start the season at 1B with Logan Morrison doing most of the DHing.
On the pitching side, Seattle's new closer Fernando Rodney jumped 20 spots in the rankings upon his signing, which pushed potential incumbent Danny Farquhar down a staggering 285 spots from 244 to 529, the largest difference not counting players who will miss all of 2014 due to injury (Cory Luebke) or voluntary choice (Ryan Dempster). Meanwhile, Seattle's top 2013 point scorer Hisashi Iwakuma lost nearly 50 ranks due to a finger issue. I personally think his new spot more accurately represents his value, as one terrific season shouldn't be enough to place anyone in the top 100.
It looks like there might be a battle for the closer's role in Arizona this year, based on the dramatic slide in rank of trade acquisition Addison Reed (who cost the Diamondbacks the 2013 Futures Game MVP Matt Davidson (-126 ranks), who is himself losing significant ground to Conor Gillaspie (+151) in the battle for the White Sox 3B job... but I digress). Reed's loss of 59 ranks coincides with J.J. Putz going up 47 and Brad Ziegler gaining 67. Neither setup man is within 200 ranks of the former White Sox closer, but it's surprising to see his bullpen mates gaining such significant ground. Another positional battle in the desert is taking place at shortstop, where incumbent Didi Gregorius is closing in on challenger Chris Owings. While the rankings still suggest that the job is Owings's to lose, what was once a 239 point gap (653 - 414) is now down to just 75 (545 - 470). Neither of these players are fantasy draftable at this stage, but it's an interesting competition between prospects to keep an eye on.
Jerry Crasnick recently wrote an article on ESPN's Spring Training blog entitled "Rangers' rotation one big jumble" and the rankings seem to reflect that opinion. Yu Darvish is solid at the top, but his #2 from last year, Derek Holland, will be out for most of the first half with a fluky knee injury, and fellow lefty Matt Harrison's back issues will likely keep him from being ready to start the season. None of the above pitchers moved at all in the rankings (ditto recently extended Martin Perez), but the same cannot be said of the placeholders behind them. The rankers seem to see a lot of upside in Alexi Ogando's move back to the rotation (he jumped more than 100 spots to be the team's clear number 2 starter), but the drops of 2013 spot starter Nick Tepesch (-59) and new acquisition Tommy Hanson (-97) do not bode well for the bottom 3/5ths of Texas's rotation. The jump in Neftali Feliz's value (along with the corresponding drop in Joakim Soria's) reflects the former starter turned closer turned starter's return to the 9th inning role.
I hope these findings help some fantasy players avoid some downwardly trending pitfalls and/or draft some upwardly trending sleepers. Now if you'll excuse me it's time to bury my head in some rosters and analysis until I have some lineups ready to post!
If it wasn't clear enough already that the completion of the Super Bowl signals the unofficial start of the baseball season, MLB.com on Monday released its 2014 Player Preview. This comprehensive list ranks more than 850 players who can be expected to contribute to a major league team in some way. Needless to say, as soon as the list was released, I was hard at work crunching these numbers with an eye toward maximizing the value in my upcoming fantasy draft, since at the end of the day, these rankings really cater to fantasy managers. (At least I hope no real life general managers have to rely on them for player evaluation...) Based on my first run through the data, here's a preliminary position-by-position breakdown of how I will try to fill my roster come draft day.
But before we get into the actual positions, let's go over the top-ranked players overall. When making your first round pick in the draft, you generally want to grab whichever top 10 (or 12) player is available without worrying too much about positional scarcity. It's in the later rounds where you have to look more carefully at what's out there, what positions you need, and how you can get the most value in those picks. So firstly, here's a look at the "ideal" fantasy lineup, consisting of the top-ranked player in each position.
On a side note, this will likely be very similar to my first user-generated lineup on MLB 14: The Show, at least until I get a feel for the controls and all that. That will be followed by an All-Acquired team for each league (the AL squad being headlined by Robinson Cano, the only player on this best-of chart to have changed teams in the off-season), then Divisional All-Stars, and finally Astrology teams, if I'm feeling bold. But moving back to the chart, I've done two things for the sake of comparison. On the left side of the chart, I've put each player's 2014 ranking next to his 2013 ranking as of Opening Day (in italics to avoid confusion). On the right side, I've put each player's actual 2013 points (in bold) next to ESPN Fantasy's projected points for 2014.
Starting on the left side, a couple trends are evident at first glance. One is that things at the very top haven't changed much since last year: Mike Trout and Miguel Cabrera are still firmly entrenched as the most talented players in the sport, with three other members of last year's top ten remaining in the top ten. Another is that pitchers have taken a significant jump forward in draftability from last year. The recently richly rewarded Clayton Kershaw was the top-ranked pitcher both years, but this time around he's squarely in the top ten, while his 2013 rank (21) would have placed him FOURTH among all pitchers in 2014.
But after the top guys are off the board, who should you go for first (aside from NOT catchers)? To try to shed some light on this problem, I looked at the top potential starters at each position and did a little averaging. For the infield positions, of which there are usually only one spot per team, I looked at the top 30 players, one for each Major League team, as opposed to one for each team in the typical fantasy league (10 to 12). For outfielders, I took the top 90, with a special insert for the top 30 center fielders, as I know some leagues differentiate between them and the corner spots (as they should, in my opinion). I modeled the sample size of pitchers after the info given in the Sports Illustrated Baseball Preview issues in recent years: five starting pitchers (for a total of 150, with inserts for five groups of 30) and two relievers.
So without further ado, here's a breakdown of the baseball positions organized by draftability. Analysis to come later:
1. Outfield
Average Rank: 184.5
Median Rank: 194 (Michael Brantley)
Range: 1 - 369 (90 players)
2. First Base
Average Rank: 190.3
Median Rank: 221 (Brandon Moss)
Range: 3 - 427 (30 players)
3. Shortstop
Average Rank: 227.9
Median Rank: 222 (Andrelton Simmons*)
Range: 13 - 472 (30 players)
4. Second Base
Average Rank: 232.5
Median Rank: 218 (Chase Utley)
Range: 7 - 502 (30 players)
5. Third Base
Average Rank: 236.3
Median Rank: 245 (Todd Frazier)
Range: 2 - 547 (30 players)
6. Starting Pitcher
Average Rank: 250.0
Median Rank: 241 (Travis Wood)
Range: 6 - 510 (150 players)
7. Relief Pitcher
Average Rank: 272.1
Median Rank: 257 (Huston Street*)
Range: 42 - 473 (60 players)
8. Catcher
Average Rank: 295.5
Median Rank: 340 (Russell Martin)
Range: 53 - 500 (30 players)
First of all, outfielders are a little tricky because they comprise three distinct roster spots, but since they are all three taken from the same player pool, I grouped them all together above. But suppose you wanted to look at each outfield spot individually, ordering them by total rank, we can do that too:
1a. OF1
Average Rank: 44.4
Median Rank: 40 (Jose Bautista)
Range: 1 - 102 (30 players)
1b. OF2
Average Rank: 189.7
Median Rank: 194 (Michael Brantley, you guessed it)
Range: 103 - 263 (30 players)
1c. OF3
Average Rank: 319.4
Median Rank: 318 (David Murphy)
Range: 272 - 369 (30 players)
A pretty consistent distribution: the gap between the median overall rank and the median top 3rd rank is 140, while the gap between the overall and bottom 3rd is 135. What these a, b, and c numbers should tell us is that your first outfielder should absolutely be a top priority - no surprise given that four of the top ten players are outfielders. Also, to speak to another point, three of those top four are center fielders, a position with a better average ranking than all outfielders taken as a whole (171.3), albeit with a much smaller sample size.
Again, keep in mind that these ranks deal with the depth of the real Major Leagues rather than the depth of a fantasy league (it's hard to imagine a fantasy player being content with Michael Brantley or David Murphy on their opening day squad), but I think it's important to keep track of the bigger picture.
It makes sense that first base is next, given that it's the easiest position to master defensively, leaving the door open for offensively-minded players, and good shortstops generally have a lot of value for the exact opposite reason (i.e. positional scarcity). But the rest of the infield and the entire starting pitcher category are grouped fairly close together. Perhaps we can get into more detail if we break down the starters from 1-5:
6a. SP1
Average Rank: 65.8
Median Rank: 64 (Anibal Sanchez)
Range: 6 - 119 (30 players)
6b. SP2
Average Rank: 156.8
Median Rank: 158 (John Lackey)
Range: 122 - 189 (30 players)
6c. SP3
Average Rank: 241.2
Median Rank: 241 (Travis Wood, sensing a theme?)
Range: 190 - 297 (30 players)
6d. SP4
Average Rank: 341.1
Median Rank: 333 (Trevor Cahill)
Range: 301 - 389 (30 players)
6e. SP5
Average Rank: 445.1
Median Rank: 444 (Jake Arrieta*)
Range: 392 - 510 (30 players)
This breakdown seems to suggest that your staff ace should be your next priority after a slugging everyday outfielder to build your team around. And why not, after all? Based on the huge numbers put up by the top pitchers each year, I've been a big proponent of making my second overall pick a pitcher, even when they were ranked in the 20's rather than the teens. I'm not sure if the system scales properly as we go down the starting rotation, because there's no way I'm taking my second pitcher before a top tier first baseman. But then again, maybe I should be... I mean, the numbers are there, right?
Just to finish it off, here's the breakdown of the two reliever spots, just so we can insure that every roster spot (except DH) gets a blurb:
7a. RP1
Average Rank: 148.4
Median Rank: 134 (Addison Reed)
Range: 42 - 257 (30 players)
7b. RP2
Average Rank: 395.7
Median Rank: 398 (Luke Gregerson*)
Range: 273 - 473 (30 players)
Look, obviously any set of data as vast and complex as fantasy rankings requires more than a cursory look through the numbers before any conclusions can be drawn, and the rankings are changing every day. But luckily, we still have a couple months until the baseball season gets started in earnest. Let the statistical geekiness commence!
As anyone who pays attention to the dueling statistics of Baseball Reference and FanGraphs knows, a big part of evaluation in baseball is the concept of a replacement level player, the hypothetical average minor leaguer against whom all other players can be measured. At this point in the season, teams generally amass a stockpile of guys, most of whom profile as replacement level players, in the form of non-roster invitees. These are either players signed to minor league deals trying to earn a roster spot with their play in Arizona and Florida or top prospects getting their first action playing with big leaguers.
Teams have been sporadically announcing their list of NRI's and I've been more than sporadically keeping track of these announcements. I specifically noticed that the Yankees announced which 26 players they're inviting to spring training because last year New York brought a whopping 43 players to camp, more than would fit on a single page of a standard Excel spreadsheet. Of course, there are still two weeks until pitchers and catchers report to spring training for them to hand out more invitations to new signees or members of their organization, but for now, here is a much more manageable list of this year's invitees with some accompanying information.
Let's start with the far left-hand column, noting rankings on MLB.com's list of 100 prospects. Note that there's only one: outfielder Mason Williams (not to be confused with the composer responsible for the soft 70's pop tune Classical Gas). He didn't put up great offensive numbers mostly for the class A advanced Tampa Yankees in the Florida State League, but according to MLB's Bernie Pleskoff, his defense is his best tool currently. It's a lock that Williams won't make the big league roster out of spring training at age 22, both because he still needs some minor league seasoning and because New York's outfield is chock full of more experienced and more expensive options.
Moving to the right, a green highlight in the Position column denotes whether the player was a rookie in 2013, while a yellow highlight in the names column represents a player signed during the off-season. Obviously only a handful of players on this list saw big league action last year (as is normally the case), which is why I included minor league stats as well. Of the 2013 major leaguers, the most interesting might be Scott Sizemore (pictured above), not just because he played for the A's, but because of what's going on with New York's third base situation given Alex Rodriguez's suspension. If the former Detroit prospect can stay healthy (his two games in 2013 constituted his only action since 2011), he could pick up a bunch of playing time as new infield additions Kelly Johnson and Brendan Ryan have only 45 games at 3B between them.
Honestly, looking at this list, I'm finding it not that impressive. The highest offensive output came from catcher/infielder Peter O'Brien, and he played in a couple of pretty low levels of the minors. None of these pitchers will likely compete for a rotation spot, as only one of them (Bruce Billings, signed away from the Oakland organization) was a full time starter last year. It's just nice to grab onto anything remotely interesting that's happening in the baseball world in the dark winter months.
In other news, both active players named ChadTracy signed minor league contracts today. Isn't that something?
I can't believe it's been almost two months since my last activity on this blog, but anyone who's checked out my YouTube page recently should have a good idea of what I've been up to during that time. That's right, my Movie Scores Power Hour is now online and ready to view! Unlike my previous effort - chronicling some of the best moments in Batman: The Animated Series - this one needs only the audio to fulfill its function. The video portion, while not entirely necessary, includes provides useful information about each minute-long clip - title, year, director and composer of the movie from which it was taken, along with a piece of key art (i.e. a poster) and a screenshot or two. Below is the full video for your viewing / listening enjoyment:
Rather than go through clip by clip, as I did in my multipart companion to the Batman: TAS Power Hour, I'll just give some overall thoughts and bits of clarifying information that will hopefully make the experience more enjoyable (and thus drive up views). First, here's a leaderboard of composers who appear on the list more than once. Please keep in mind that while I think I got a great deal of the most iconic scores in film history, this was by no means meant to be an objective "best of" list - there's no such thing as a creative work that's completely separate from its creator, and my personal preferences often and proudly come to the fore throughout this hour.
John Williams - 11
Hans Zimmer - 4
Howard Shore - 4
Bernard Herrmann - 3
Jerry Goldsmith - 3
Nino Rota - 3
Elmer Bernstein - 2
Ennio Morricone - 2
James Horner - 2
Randy Edelman - 2
That's right, a whopping ELEVEN (this one goes to 11) clips from the modern day master of film music John Williams. And what's more, six of those eleven are paired with director Steven Spielberg. (No wonder two of those pairings show up in the top 10.) Fittingly, Mr. Williams is represented in the leadoff track, the opening title from the original Star Wars, for a long time my favorite movie and still my favorite film score (when taken over over the whole trilogy). My second favorite score appears all throughout this power hour as the cue to drink / introduce the next clip. I'm a sucker for a good leitmotif, and the different themes that Howard Shore crafted for the Lord of the Rings trilogy perfectly set the tone for a deep fantasy universe. In fact, three of his four appearances in this power hour are Middle Earth related, which happen to mark the halfway point.
Before we reach that milestone, however, we hear all four entries from Hans Zimmer, a composer who is as prolific as he is bombastic. The placement of Zimmer's contributions highlights the "block" structure around which I formatted this power hour. We hear from him first in the "superhero block" where his collaboration with James Newton Howard on The Dark Knight is contrasted directly with Danny Elfman's seminal theme from 1989's Batman. (The relatively short block is finished off by the Superman theme by, who else, John Williams.) Zimmer and Lisa Gerrard (the power hour's only female contributor) then start off the "epic/war movie block" with Gladiator. This block goes in chronological order going by subject matter, featuring the Roman Empire, 13th century Scotland, the American Civil War, World War I, and three entries from World War II. This block segues flawlessly into the "music you've heard in every trailer ever" block, starting with Zimmer's unforgettable Crimson Tide theme followed by Randy Edelman's ubiquitous Dragonheart (see if you don't have an "oh, THAT one!" reaction halfway through, and ending with Clint Mansell's haunting orchestral anthem (played by the Kronos Quartet, yes like the winter storm) for Requiem for a Dream. (Remember the trailer for Two Towers? Are you getting the LotR theme?)
I haven't seen Hans Zimmer's score for Inception (his second collaboration with Christopher Nolan on this power hour) show up in any trailers yet; even though it definitely has the proper triumphant epic tense feel, it might just be too recognizable on its own. As we head towards the halfway point, I tried to stick with the triumphant theme, grouping a couple of inspiring sports movies (the third sports-related film, the unmistakable and used-everywhere Chariots of Fire, earned a spot in the top 10) with a couple of inspiring John Williams scores based on space (including the second track from a Star Wars film). The halfway point is marked by repeats, as we see the second appearance of The Godfather - the haunting opening waltz is easily a top 10 track, but the melodious love theme is a distinct motif that also merits consideration. (Andy Williams's version also serves as a warning not to attempt to transform movie scores into pop ballads by adding lyrics. Don't listen unless you want your impressions of this great piece of music forever shaken...)
After the aforementioned trip to Middle Earth (with a detour to Hogwarts, making it a true "fantasy block"), we get the "Hitchcock block" made up of two of the three collaborations between the master of suspense and composer Bernard Herrmann that are featured in this power hour. The first of the three - the revolutionary staccato strings from Psycho - occurs in the top 10 as it's just too genre-defining to relegate to the second half. A bit of trivia that I have to mention every time I talk about Psycho (and stop me if you've heard this before) is that Hitchcock originally wanted the shower scene to play without any music at all. But that was before Herrmann showed the director what he was cooking up.
Next, the "western block" segues into the "Italian block" - one of the two Sergio Leone-directed / Ennio Morricone-scored "spaghetti westerns" in the hour appears here, the other (The Good, the Bad and the Ugly) absolutely merited top 10 honors. Then we're back into scary movie land, where John Williams also makes an appearance with the driving strings of Jaws, followed by the score John Carpenter wrote for his own movie Halloween, and Jerry Goldsmith's extensively researched inversion of a high mass for The Omen. I actually lost some sleep over editing this clip, not because I was anxious about getting it just right, but because it would get in my head and I would be too scared to drift off.
Now a few clips from here is where I made the only glaring mistake in play order that I would like to have back. I got into some noir with Chinatown (also Jerry Goldsmith) and The Third Man (same lead actors as Citizen Kane, but with a much more fun musical theme), it would make perfect sense to go right to another dark story like On the Waterfront before starting to inject some fun as we head into the final 10, but instead I broke the tension with the jaunty Adventures of Robin Hood (which, at 1938, is the oldest film on the list, beating Gone With the Wind by one year). But like the weavers of Persian rugs who purposely included an imperfection because no one should be perfect but Allah, so I will graciously endure my error.
After a track from Titanic gets us back in the excited and hopeful mood (the addition of that movie was the biggest note I received from my fiancee / executive producer upon screening the first cut for her), we enter the final stretch by getting into some more groovy tracks from the 60's (The Pink Panther), 70's (Enter the Dragon, written by Mission: Impossible! composer Lalo Schiffrin), and 80's (Ghostbusters, which I know is not technically part of the score, but if it's in the movie, it's fair game [cf. the next track MORTAL KOMBAT]). In the final five is the only track from the 2013 movie season, Pacific Rim, which I included because, although I haven't heard many of the Oscar-nominated scores, I can't imagine any of them being more fun than Ramin Djawadi's (Game of Thrones, anyone?) heroic rock anthem.
A double dose of John Williams ends the hour, including the third track from the Star Wars series and the second track from Jurassic Park. Some might question the inclusion of two tracks from the same movie when so many great scores and composers went unrepresented (an unfortunate side effect when working in a 60-song format). But first of all, it's a distinct musical theme, and second of all, I've spent hours of his life waiting in line at Universal Studios listening to this particular riff on repeat, and I couldn't think of a better backdrop for a roll of credits of any kind.
So there you have it: a few words to supplement a few of my favorite movie scores of all time, arranged in a fun and interesting way. Watch it a few times and then tell all your friends! Enjoy!!!
