ALDS OAK vs. DET Analysis

Well, the Oakland Athletics' tremendous unexpected season is now on the verge of coming to an end. Even going back home, it's nearly impossible to come back from a two-game deficit and win three in a row, especially knowing that Justin "I bribe every home plate umpire in the league" Verlander is gonna pitch in the last game. Might as well see how these two ALDS teams stack up, because I might not get another chance to...

If you compare the overall total points scored of these two teams, things look a little bleak for the A's. But then when you see that the A's won six more games in a much more competitive decision, and you see that there's more magic at work here than the numbers can express. Let's see how that magic descends position by position.

C: Derek Norris vs. Alex Avila
Avila was an All-Star last year, but his OPS is down .159 points and his HR totals have dropped by more than half. But I'd still take him over a rookie who barely cracked the Mendoza line this season.
ADVANTAGE: TIGERS

1B: Brandon Moss vs. Prince Fielder

Moss has been one of the great feel-good stories of the year, finally making some noise in the majors after being a well-regarded prospect since 2005. Three teams and an open batting stance later, he is a big reason why the A's led the majors in home runs after the All-Star break. But it's hard to top Fielder (below) who's cleared 30 HR in six straight seasons and who just signed for $214mm over nine years, regardless of how loose-fitting his jersey is.
ADVANTAGE: TIGERS

2B: Cliff Pennington vs. Omar Infante
Infante was originally developed by the Tigers, but found his way back into the fold after spending some time with the Braves and Marlins. He doesn't have a lot of pop in his bat, but he's the kind of guy who profiles as a No. 2 hitter. What Pennington brings to the table is SS-caliber defense - that's where he played until the midseason acquisition of Stephen Drew - cuz he's certainly not turning many heads with a .215 AVG.
ADVANTAGE: TIGERS

3B: Josh Donaldson vs. Miguel Cabrera

Donaldson is a converted C who was moved to 3B in a hurry prior to the start of the season due to a freak workout injury to projected starter Scott Sizemore. He spent most of the year in AAA, but he elevated his game, and when he came back down the stretch, he came up with some big hits. As for Cabrera, two words: Triple Crown.
ADVANTAGE: TIGERS

SS: Stephen Drew vs. Jhonny Peralta
Drew played an abbreviated season after recovering from a gnarly ankle injury he sustained last year with the Diamondbacks, but his raw skills were never in doubt. Peralta is known more for the nontradition spelling of his first name than for anything outstanding on the field.
ADVANTAGE: PUSH

LF: Yoenis Cespedes vs. Quintin Berry
Two rookies here, one known for his amazing success on the basepaths (Berry was 21 for 21 in SBs this year) and one known for this YouTube video showcasing his awesome talents. Despite a rash of unfortunate injuries, Cespedes has impressed in every aspect of his game and might have gotten some serious Rookie of the Year consideration were it not for that 21-year-old who plays in Anaheim.
ADVANTAGE: ATHLETICS

CF: Coco Crisp vs. Austin Jackson
An amazing contact hitter, Jackson's fantasy numbers were certainly impressive - .300 AVG, 103 R scored, a league-leading 12 triples. But he doesn't bring to the table nearly what Crisp does in terms of defense or danger on the basepaths. And had Crisp not been bitten by the injury bug, I don't doubt his season would have been just as impressive if not more so.
ADVANTAGE: ATHLETICS

RF: Josh Reddick vs. Andy Dirks/Avisail Garcia
Reddick was acquired from the Red Sox in the offseason in a trade for closer Andrew Bailey, and it's been no question which team got the better of that deal, at least in 2012. The wiry Reddick brings 30 HR power, Gold Glove-quality defense in RF (he led the league with 14 OF assists), and great taste in which professional wrestler to cheer for. Meanwhile, Jim Leyland can't even find an outfielder solid enough to play against both lefties and righties.
ADVANTAGE: ATHLETICS

SP1: Jarrod Parker vs. Justin Verlander

Changeup artist Parker has put together an amazing rookie performance after coming over from Arizona, leading the team with 13 wins. But how can you compete with Verlander, the reigning Cy Young award winner, especially when he has every umpire in the league in his pocket, handing out called strike three's like so many flyers on a street corner. I hope he and his stupid double butt-chin never gets to hang out with Kate Upton in that damn dumb perfect game club.
ADVANTAGE: TIGERS

SP2: Tommy Milone vs. Doug Fister
Is there an echo in here? Crafty lefty Milone also put together an amazing rookie performance, and also led the team with 13 wins. Fister is 6'8" and has a name that probably got him some flak as an adolescent, as soon as his schoolmates got mature enough to understand the possibilities.
ADVANTAGE: PUSH

SP3: Brett Anderson vs. Anibal Sanchez
Anderson looked like he had recovered really well from his Tommy John surgery for his six starts this year, until he sustained an oblique injury just from throwing a pitch. If he's ready and available, he's one of the nastiest lefties in the game right now. Sanchez pitched poorly at first after coming over from the Marlins in a trade, but has righted the ship and has gotten back to the pitcher we knew he could be.
ADVANTAGE: ATHLETICS

SP4: A.J. Griffin vs. Max Scherzer
Another rookie, Griffin actually led the A's in points per game among starters A's pitchers with at least 10 games started. But it's hard to match up against the pitcher who struck out the second most batters in the league, no matter how badly he hurt his ankle in the Tigers' division-winning celebration.
ADVANTAGE: TIGERS

RP: Grant Balfour vs. Jose Valverde

Valverde is a completely different pitcher than the one who was 49 for 49 in save opportunities in 2011, but he still brings the same theatricality and flare to the mound. Balfour is one of the most fiery pitchers in the game right now, sacrificing pure rage for theatricality. He started and finished the year as Oakland's closer, giving way to Ryan Cook in the midsummer months, but his role is set in stone now after appearing in five games in a row to close out the season.
ADVANTAGE: ATHLETICS


The A's have their work cut out for them, but as we've seen seven times before, this is not an impossible hole out from which to crawl. But the A's won an improbable three games in a row to take the AL West on the last day of the season, so they can DO IT AGAIN, DAMMIT! It's been a season full of remarkable comebacks (14 walk-off wins to lead the league), so why should the trend stop now? LET'S GO A'S! WOOO!

2012 (Inaugural) AL Wild Card Preview

What a surprising collapse for the Texas Rangers, am I right? To hold first place in their division EVERY DAY of the season except for two days in April and 1 day in October... and then to have to settle for a Wild Card spot. But that's what happens when you don't take a magical team like the Oakland A's seriously enough, which is a lesson the Tigers will learn starting tomorrow. Meanwhile, to continue into the traditional playoffs, the Rangers have to face an equally surprising (but for the opposite reason) Baltimore Orioles team, who has defied all odds and earned a spot in the inaugural AL Wild Card Game. Let's take a look at this matchup:

C: Matt Wieters (3.2) vs. Mike Napoli (1.4)

Power hitting catchers are rare commodities indeed, and we've got two of the best facing off against each other in this matchup (Napoli has slugged 24 HR to Wieters's 23). But power hitting catchers that can also contribute on defense (Wieters has thrown out 39% of potential base stealers  as opposed to Napoli's 21%)? That is truly a special player.
ADVANTAGE: ORIOLES

1B: Mark Reynolds (-0.1) vs. Mitch Moreland (0.2)
Reynolds moved over to 1B after his defense at 3B was too much for the O's to stomach, so a lot of his negative defensive WAR has been negated by that position switch. And he didn't lead the league in strikeouts for the first time in five years! Meanwhile Moreland split time at 1B with Michael Young when one of Texas's bigger hitters needed some time at DH.
ADVANTAGE: ORIOLES

2B: Robert Andino (0.0) vs. Ian Kinsler (2.0)
Baltimore has nothing but replacement level folks to trot out here, whereas Kinsler is a two-time 30/30 player who came one HR short of his fourth 20/20 season.
ADVANTAGE: RANGERS

3B: Manny Machado (1.5) vs. Adrian Beltre (6.6)

Machado making his debut and helping his team reach the playoffs for the first time in 15 years is a great story... but Beltre is straight up a great player. It's unclear whether he'll play at 3B in this game, ceding the hot corner to Michael Young in the last few contests of the regular season. But he will be sure to make a difference in this game, whether it's with his bat or his glove or both.
ADVANTAGE: RANGERS

SS: J.J. Hardy (3.0) vs. Elvis Andrus (3.4)
Power hitting shortstops with soft hands in the field are almost as rare as power hitting catchers who can throw out baserunners, but Baltimore has one of each! But unfortunately for the Orioles, power does not a complete hitter make. Despite the lack of pop in his bat, Andrus has a higher OPS than Hardy by nearly .060 points, and that coupled with what he brings on the basepaths (21 steals in 31 attempts vs. 0 steals in 0 attempts) gives Andrus the edge.
ADVANTAGE: RANGERS

LF: Nate McLouth (0.8) vs. David Murphy (3.2)
Murphy spent a lot of time on the bench when Josh Hamilton's fragile body prevents him from playing in CF. But McLouth spent a lot of time languishing in Pittsburgh putting up -0.5 WAR. He's been a great table setter since coming over to the Orioles and his intangibles are through the roof, but there's no question who puts up the better production.
ADVANTAGE: RANGERS

CF: Adam Jones (3.4) vs. Josh Hamilton (3.3)

Conventional wisdom would say to pick Hamilton here because of his monster offensive numbers, but given his recent performance I'm not so sure. After a crazy start to the season, he hit only one HR over the crucial final two weeks of the season, and while neither of these players are exactly assets on defense, Jones didn't drop a routine fly ball that very opened the door to costing his team the division title. Then there's durability, which doesn't come into play much for a one-game playoff, but Jones played all 162 games, whereas Hamilton missed games because he had too much caffeine - what does he think this is Marcy Playground circa 1997?
ADVANTAGE: PUSH

RF: Chris Davis (1.3) vs. Nelson Cruz (0.1)
Ask the Rangers how they feel about that trade that sent Davis and SP Tommy Hunter to the O's for RP Koji Uehara now that Davis has erupted with 33 HR on the year and a 1.057 OPS in the season's final months, and you'll likely hear some wringing of hands and gnashing of teeth in response. Cruz still puts up good power numbers, but he's completely fallen apart defensively - not that Davis is a stud in the field, but at least he can play three different positions with moderate competency.
ADVANTAGE: ORIOLES

DH: Jim Thome (-0.1) vs. Michael Young (-2.4)
Thome is the second starting Oriole to have spent time with a Pennsylvania team before heading south to help Baltimore with its playoff push. He's a hitting legend and sure Hall of Famer, but clearly on his way out and it's questionable how much he can contribute at age 41. Young got absolutely no love in terms of baseball reference WAR, both offensively (-1.0) and defensively (-2.1, again not sure how the math works out), definitely a far cry from the guy who led the league in hits last year. But there is something to be said for a veteran who can step in and play any infield position when called upon to do so.
ADVANTAGE: RANGERS

SP: Joe Saunders (0.7) vs. Yu Darvish (4.0)

Darvish technically qualifies as a rookie, despite five dominant seasons in the Japanese league (76-21 record (.731 win pct), 1.72 ERA, 0.890 WHIP). He racked up a lot of innings overseas, but the rigors of the longer MLB season might have been getting to him towards the end there. Saunders has pitched decently for the Birds after being acquired in late August from the D-Backs (3-3, 3.63 ERA, 1.276 WHIP), but not as strongly as say Wei-Yin Chen (another import from the Japanese leagues) or Chris Tillman (who was used in the last game of the season two days ago). Maybe Showalter tabbed the lefty because he's had the most postseason experience of any starter on his staff (with the Angels in 08-09 and with the D-Backs last year) but whatever the reasoning, the talent level looks a little skewed in one direction.
ADVANTAGE: RANGERS

RP: Jim Johnson (1.3) vs. Joe Nathan (1.9)
In Johnson's first year as a closer he did not disappoint, leading the league with 51 saves, a 2.49 ERA, and a 1.019 WHIP - but only 5.4 K/9IP. Nathan returned to form in his first full season after missing all of 2010 due to Tommy John surgery (37 saves, 2.80 ERA, 1.057 WHIP, 10.9 K/9). As much as the concept of a pitch-to-contact closer worries me, I don't think there's a big difference between these two as far as who I'd rather have closing down a big game.
ADVANTAGE: PUSH

2012 (Inaugural) NL Wild Card Round Preview

What an incredible end of the 2012 regular season, especially for us A's fans! I tell you what, if you're only gonna be in first place for one day in the entire season, the last day is the right day to pick! This great comeback story featuring a roster full of rookies and castoffs is one for the ages, and I'm looking forward to seeing the boys in green and gold take on the Tigers in a rematch of the 2006 ALCS. We'll see if they can build on this improbable run to the division title and surpass the success of the famed Moneyball season.

But before we enter that chapter, we still have a whole round of playoffs to get through! I use the term "round" lightly, because a one-game playoff seems pretty scant for fans who are used to kicking off the playoffs with a best of five series. The new format is essentially adding a tiebreaker game to each league to determine the wild card spots. The funny thing is that in the AL, this one game matchup between the Rangers and the Orioles would have happened even in the old format, because they both finished the season with the same record! In the NL, however, the Cardinals have a chance to make their seven fewer wins than the Braves completely disappear in one game. Let's see how their two lineups stack up.

A quick word about my chart, as usual: The rank column represents where that player stands in relation to the other batters or pitchers on his team. I've written enough about swp that you all should be pretty familiar with it by now. Also, since the above chart includes swp, I've included each player's WAR next to their names below. And for those fantasy-relevant players (i.e. owned in more than 40% of ESPN leagues) I've included the player's astrological sign, just for kicks. We'll see if any patterns develop among playoff teams. Now let's get to the position-by-position rankings I love so well...

C: Brian McCann (0.6) vs. Yadier Molina (6.7)
I don't know if McCann is still considered an elite catcher, but he sure didn't have an elite season this year. He still has some pop in his bat (20 HR), but his 2012 OPS was more than .125 points off his career average. We'll see how the Braves approach his $12.5m option going into the offseason. The Cardinals on the other hand won't have to worry about Yadier Molina's contract option until 2018, and they couldn't be happier with how the 29-year-old defensive wiz has been progressing at the plate as well. This one is the no-brainerest decision of this whole endeavor.
ADVANTAGE: CARDINALS

1B: Freddie Freeman (2.1) vs. Allen Craig (2.2)
I can tell you right now, we're looking at a push. Freeman has delivered on the promise he showed when the Braves made him the second rookie in as many years to start the season at a key offensive position in 2011. When Craig was finally given a starting role - after recovering from knee surgery, battling back from a hamstring strain, and thanks to an injury to Lance Berkman - he picked up right where he left off from his 3 HR performance in last year's World Series. I was tempted to give the edge to Craig because he put up comparable totals in less playing time, but I think what they bring to the table is about equal.
ADVANTAGE: PUSH

2B: Dan Uggla (2.7) vs. Daniel Descalso (-0.2)
Despite Uggla's highly-publicized benching in September, he still brings infinitely more to the plate than Descalso, who's a backup utility infielder on most teams.
ADVANTAGE: BRAVES

3B: Chipper Jones (2.6) vs. David Freese (3.6)
These two players put up very similar fantasy production in two very different stages of their careers. Freese is just now entering his prime (2012 was his first season playing in more than 100 games) while Jones is famously retiring after this season. Their rate stats are almost identical, but I'm going to have to give the edge to Freese here due to his upside and his ability to stay on the field (Jones made two trips to the DL15 with a meniscus tear and a calf bruise). Plus, being a postseason hero last year is enough to push him over the edge.
ADVANTAGE: CARDINALS

SS: Andrelton Simmons (2.8) vs. Pete Kozma (1.1)
Both of these SS's are backup plans for their respective clubs: the Cardinals re-signed veteran Rafael Furcal for this season, and the Braves hoped that rookie Tyler Pastornicky could shoulder the starting SS role. Kozma appears more polished with the bat (.952 OPS in his 26 games) while Simmons is a rock star in the field (2.4 WAR with his glove alone), but they're both very much works in progress.
ADVANTAGE: PUSH

LF: Martin Prado (5.4) vs. Matt Holliday (3.8)
Let me make this clear: WAR takes defense into account, and defense is NOT Matt Holliday's strong suit. Offensively, he's got the clear advantage with 4.4 oWAR to Prado's 3.2 - it's the difference between a middle of the order power bat and a prototypical No. 2 hitter. But Prado's defensive versatility (he played every non-battery position except the other two outfield spots) give him the edge in the advanced metrics. But there's no question who I'd rather have at the plate in a key situation.
ADVANTAGE: CARDINALS

CF: Michael Bourn (6.0) vs. Jon Jay (3.2)
Talk about the prototypical leadoff hitter... and you'd be talking about Michael Bourn. Great speed (that more often than not also translates into good outfield defense at a key position - his WAR is pretty evenly split between offense and defense), pretty good plate discipline, and the willingness to attempt a steal in any situation (he was caught stealing a league leading 13 times, against 42 successful tries). Jay had the leadoff role thrust upon him with Furcal's injury, and he responded fairly well, keeping his average right around his career .300 mark. But it's clear who's more of a difference-maker at the top of the order.
ADVANTAGE: BRAVES

RF: Jason Heyward (5.5) vs. Carlos Beltran (3.6)
Like Prado, Heyward's WAR is also skewed because of defense, but here's the thing: he's got a slight edge on Beltran even considering only oWAR (3.2 to 3.0, although Beltran is also listed as having -0.0 dWAR, so it looks like baseball reference's calculations break down slightly on this one). After losing out to Buster Posey in the 2010 Rookie of the Year voting (I mean, the first-year catcher did lead his team to a World Championship), Heyward rebounded from a 2011 sophomore slump with a 20/20 season. Beltran is doing his best Lance Berkman comeback-with-the-Cardinals impression with his first 30 HR season in five years.
ADVANTAGE: BRAVES (but it's close)

SP: Kris Medlen (4.4) vs. Kyle Lohse (3.9)
Which strategy for nursing a pitcher back to health following a major surgery do you support? Trotting him out to the mound every five days to start, and then shutting him down when he reaches his prescribed innings limit? Or pitching him out of the bullpen for the first four months of the season, then moving him to the rotation when the games count, leaving him well short of any potential innings limit by the time the playoffs role around? The Nationals followed the first strategy with Stephen Strasburg, and now he's unavailable for the postseason. Meanwhile the Braves followed the second strategy with Kris Medlen, and now he's scheduled to pitch in the Wild Card Game. Not only that, but despite Strasburg's electric stuff, Medlen actually outperformed the phenom by a whole 1.7 WAR. So we'll see whose strategy wins out.

Meanwhile, Kyle Lohse has been the Cardinals' most consistent starter all season. He led the league in starts (he tallied as many as his age, 33) and win pct. (16-3, .842), and beat his career low ERA by more than half a point. He is coming into a contract year and the Cardinals have hinted that they're going to let him test the market, so any team signing him should beware of Adrian-Beltre-in-2004-itis. I thought rookie manager Mike Matheny might have gone with playoff veteran Adam Wainwright or even the newly-returned Chris Carpenter for this game, but he chose to go with the stats here. But if you want to talk about stats: in Medlen's 12 starts since joining the rotation he's gone 9-0 with 112.7 swp/g. He's on track to become a household name, and it might start with a win in the first ever Wild Card Game.
ADVANTAGE: BRAVES

RP: Craig Kimbrel (3.2) vs. Jason Motte (1.4)
Last year's Rookie of the Year might be on his way to becoming this year's Cy Young winner. Never mind that the last reliever to win the award was Eric Gagne back in 2003 (who had some choice words to say about Adrian Beltre circa 2004, and they didn't have anything to do with his dropoff in production following a big free agent deal). Never mind that Gio Gonzalez won 21 games and that R.A. Dickey turned in a magical season even while allegedly pitching with a torn right abdominal for most of the year. Kimbrel has had one of the all-time most absolutely dominant seasons out of the bullpen. Don't get me wrong, Jason Motte is nothing to sneeze at, but this is a guy who wasn't even the official "Closer" during last year's playoff run.
ADVANTAGE: BRAVES


I know from doing a bunch of these that position-by-position previews amount to a hill of beans when predicting who's going to win an actual matchup, but it's fun nevertheless to be able to say a little bit about all the pieces that make a roster work. This promises to be a great game, and I hope everyone tunes in at 5:07pm ET to see which of these great teams advances to the next round!

Star Wolf Appraises my Fantasy Football Team

I know this is first and foremost a baseball blog, and there is obviously no shortage of baseball to blog about, as there are still 2 out of 3 AL division winners to be determined. But there is something that I have to get off my chest.

As I may have mentioned, I have joined the ranks of the thousands upon thousands of Americans who enjoy fantasy football for the first time this season. In my preparations for the season, I read some articles by Matthew "The Talented Mr. Roto" Berry, and in one of which he admonished fantasy players not to be "that guy" - the kind of guy who gloats and roots for players to get injured and won't shut up about his team. Because, in the words of TMR, "Nobody wants to hear about your fantasy team."

However, after the three Chicago Bears on my squad put up an astonishing 45 points to overcome a 38-point deficit heading into MNF, which gave my team - the Cajun Outlaw Rat Bastards - a 4-0 record to start my rookie fantasy football season, the immortal words of Wolf O'Donnell, leader of the famed Star Wolf team of space mercenaries, came to my mind:

Scoreboard Watching in the American League

As we enter the final two serieses of the 2012 baseball season, NOT ONE of the American League playoff spots have been finalized. So while the only drama in the NL consists of the Cardinals trying to hold off the Dodgers and (surprisingly surging) Brewers for the second wild card spot, 6 of the 7 junior circuit matchups are going significantly impact the playoff race. Here's what's going on in the various divisions.

AL EAST

The Yankees have had a share of first place since mid-June, but they've watched their lead over the upstart Orioles dwindle to just 1 game going into this crucial last week's worth of games. In that last week, each of those teams has a series against the unimpressive Red Sox. But the O's have to finish the season against the red-hot Rays, only 2 games behind the A's for the second wild card spot and in the midst of an 8-game winning streak.

AL CENTRAL

Before taking on the O's, the Rays finish up their 4-game series against White Sox, a team that has been as cold as the Rays have been hot. Having lost 8 of their last 9 games, the Southsiders fell to second place in their division for the first time since July 24. The team that supplanted them - the Tigers, whom pundits everywhere had picked to win the division hands down - follows up its two serieses against the Royals and the Twins with... two more serieses against the Royals and the Twins. A favorable schedule looks like it might seal the deal for Detroit.

AL WEST

The Rangers' 4-game lead over the second wild card leading A's represents the most comfortable lead in the AL. Splitting a 4-game series against their closest competition helped maintain the status quo, but those two teams will meet up for 3 more games to close out the season. Before that happens though, the Rangers have 3 games against the surging Angels, who just had their 5-game winning streak snapped by the Mariners. Their recent success has tied them with the Rays at just 2 games back in the race for the second wild card.


I'm sure everyone in the Commissioner's Office is hoping and praying for clear leaders to emerge, because (as I linked to before) the tiebreaker scenarios built into the last-minute decision to add another team to the playoffs are absolutely nightmarish. The fans and the broadcasters, however, want everything to go down to the wire, to keep the fans as interested as possible. As for me, I'm just hoping the A's can keep their heads down and power through after a rash of freak injuries, bad luck, and bad decisions has left them to subside on a starting rotation made up entirely of rookies. I think that story would surpass even Moneyball, and perhaps spawn another Oscar-nominated film.

First to Clinch!

Wow, nothing opens your eyes to how close we are to the end of the regular season like seeing that first playoff spot get locked up. With manager Dusty Baker sidelined with an irregular heartbeat, his Cincinnati Reds beat the Cubs to ensure themselves at least a Wild Card spot. Their ace Johnny Cueto was on the mound, which would have made me excited about five weeks ago when my fantasy team (of which he is a member) was still in contention. But now it's just another W tacked onto an impressive season.

The Reds will likely clinch their division - they need another two wins - leaving the Cardinals as the most likely contenders to battle with the Braves in the Wild Card game. The Dodgers could always pull off an impressive 11th hour comeback, but nothing seems to go right for them lately. In the other divisions, it's looking like the Giants and Nationals have no intention of slowing down for the rest of the pennant race.

In the AL version of the nothing-seems-to-go-right category, the A's just lost another pitcher for the year, despite pulling into a tie with the Orioles for the first Wild Card spot. I think it's only fitting to support the A's and celebrate their unexpected run by checking out this new music video from a very talented A's fan. Nothing is safe for the AL division leaders, as the White Sox, Yankees, and (especially) Rangers need to be constantly looking over their shoulders.

On a personal note, I've been so caught up in the inner workings of the playoff race that I completely forgot that the NFL plays on Thursday these days, and that some key players won't play due to injury. So now I have to hope my Fantasy Football team can subsist on just one RB for this week's matchup...

Oh the trials and tribulations of trying to be a two-sport fan. /sigh

Astrology Baseball Championship Preview

What an exciting September this has been! No divisional leader in the AL has a lead of more than two games. Six teams separated by less than five games in the NL Wild Card, including two surprise contenders who were both on the wrong side of big sales at the trade deadline. And the best team in baseball shut down their best pitcher for the remainder of the season. But perhaps the most exciting event that's been going on is the PLAYOFFS FOR MY ASTROLOGY BASEBALL FANTASY LEAGUE!!! GET EXCITED!!1~

For the last two weeks, the first round (also the semifinals) has been taking place. The two interdivisional matchups were the Capricorn Sea-Goats (#1 seed, Negative division) vs. the Libra Scales (#4, Positive) and the Aries Rams (#2, Positive) vs. the Cancer Crabs (#3, Negative). Below is a position by position analysis of the teams. The point totals date back to the start of the playoffs, and the winner at each position is highlighted in bold:

You'll notice right away that we have two battles of pitching vs. batting. Check out these comparisons:

- Capricorn leads Libra in all batting positions but two.

- Aries leads Cancer in all batting positions but two.

- Libra leads Capricorn in ALL pitching positions.

- Cancer leads Aries in all pitching positions but two.

In the latter case, it would turn out to be those two that made all the difference. You always hear that good pitching wins championships. In fantasy (at least the system that I use, which is also the most similar to the system used in fantasy football), the most points wins championships. Now it stands to reason that, since there are more spots for hitters than pitchers, your lineup would be a higher priority than your pitching staff. But pitchers have much higher points per game averages, so they're very important, especially in the short term (cf. Kris Medlen, below). It's a complex situation, but if it weren't complex, it wouldn't hold the interest of thousands of fans each year.

These astrology-based teams, of course, didn't get a chance to pick their players in a draft - the players were assigned based on their cosmic personalities / choices made by their parents of a conceptual (i.e. when to conceive) nature. And yet the teams in these two matchups embody two very different conceptual (i.e. the concept of team strategy) choices - whether to focus on pitching or hitting.

In Libra's case, their pitching-heavy approach is working well: they're leading a very comfortable 2,468 to 1,621 as of this writing, with only one day to go in the two-week long matchup. But there's also something very special happening with this pitching staff. Not only do they have owner of a 2012 perfect game Matt Cain, former Cy Young Award winner Zack Greinke, former Cy Young Award runner-up Jered Weaver, and the breakout pitching story of the year in free agent-to-be Kyle Lohse, but one of the hottest starters right now, Kris Medlen, is currently eligible to pitch out of an RP slot. He's currently filling in as RP2, since Kenley Jansen is on the shelf for the Dodgers until at least Tuesday. Medlen's three starts accounted for 359 points, the most of any player over the same time period. When the best competition Capricorn can send against these powerhouses is Cole Hamels followed by a steep dropoff, they're gonna be in some trouble.

On the offensive side, Robinson Cano and Andrew McCutchen are no slouches, especially at key positions on the diamond. But it's impressive that Libra could hold off Capricorn's onslaught by the likes of Albert Pujols, Edwin Encarnacion, Matt Holliday, and even the underrated Hanley Ramirez. All the more so considering Libra had nothing more than backup John McDonald to subsist on at SS (he's played in just seven games out of the last 13). Their regular star at the position (and #5 average draft pick) Troy Tulowitzki has been out since late May with a groin injury, and it's doubtful he'll return this year. Also on the injury front: dual-eligible 3B/OF Jose Bautista (#4 average draft pick) has seen his last action of 2012. Luckily two strong rookies - Yoenis Cespedes and Bryce Harper - have been able to pick up the slack in that department. 1B is also weak, with Michael Young their only eligible player there, but C got a shot in the arm when Kurt Suzuki was traded to the Nationals and regained a starting spot.

The Aries offense is not only staggeringly talented, it's also staggeringly deep, helping them to a lead of 2,383 to 1,382. Just take a look at this team's BENCH options: Joe Mauer, Hunter Pence, Jason Kipnis, and Mark Teixeira (once he returns from his calf issue). If you were going to search for cosmic patterns or tendencies regarding players born under specific signs, it would have to start with Aries, because this veritable army of fantasy stalwarts is just unfair. Aside from two legitimate MVP candidates in Miguel Cabrera and Buster Posey, Aries also boasts the top 3B who actually plays 3B Adrian Beltre, 8th ranked OF Jay Bruce, and up-and-coming star SS Starlin Castro. Derek Jeter is showing his agelessness for Cancer and Brandon Phillips and Yadier Molina are some of the game's best at weak positions, but overall the offenses don't compare.

And while Cancer's pitching staff has the depth and bullpen strength, very few can compare to Aries' 1-2 punch of Felix Hernandez (another perfect gamer this year) and Chris Sale (who's eligible to pitch as an RP, but it's actually more strategic to pitch him out of an SP slot). And even though Aries' SP3 (Mark Buehrle) scored less points on the year than Cancer's SP5 (Paul Maholm), and despite the fact that Cancer has the RP depth to keep two legitimate closers on its bench (Jason Motte and Ernesto Frieri), the loss of Stephen Strasburg was too much to overcome. I guess the Aries team proves that a couple of star pitchers coupled with an out-of-this-world impressive offense is the clear strategy to winning. Now the only issue for the rest of us is how to draft that type of team...

I'll leave you with another graphic, this one showing the two teams now almost certain to face off in the finals, along with current stats, and (because ESPN also calculates these) most recent stats:

The final playoff matchup of the fantasy season also signals the final two weeks of actual baseball's regular season (barring all the very scary and very real tiebreaker scenarios). It's been, and continues to be, a fun and awesome season, and it's been an honor to be a part of it, if only through the blogosphere.

Leo Lions: In-Depth Analysis

With a week of regular fantasy season left until the four-team Astrology Division playoffs, the Leo Lions' pedestrian 9-9 record doesn't look like it'll get them a ticket to the postseason. But since we just finished their birthday month, it's time for their In-Depth Analysis feature. I don't know much about the Leo sign, as it has one of the least informative Wikipedia articles around (maybe the stars have aligned to make everyone born in late summer collectively inept at IT), but I do know that they have one of only four astrological signs whose Zodiac symbol corresponds to an actual major sports team. (Bonus points if you can name the other three - I'll give you a hint: they've all been covered by this feature.)

The biggest piece of recent news involving Leo was when their second-highest offensive scorer was suspended two weeks ago after testing positive for PEDs. I wish I could say that Melky Cabrera was the latest player to fall into the synthetic testosterone trap, but the problem is apparently more widespread than anyone but Victor Conte could have possibly imagined. The Melk Man ends his season with a respectable 1,755 points, and up until this weekend he was still leading the NL in hits (Andrew McCutchen just now overtook him by one). Luckily for the Leos, their highest offensive scorer is also the highest scorer in all of MLB - despite the fact that he spent most of the first month of the season hitting .402 for the AAA Salt Lake Bees. (Bees?) Yes, not only is Mike Trout (2,253) the only batter to maintain an average of 20 or more points per game (21.5), but he's also the youngest player ever to have a 20 HR, 40 SB season, plus he leads the AL in the latter category - along with runs scored, AVG, SLG, OPS and OPS+. (He trails Joe Mauer by .004 in the last of the triple slash triple crown categories.) A ROY/MVP season is not out of the question, even if the Angels (hopefully) remain out of the playoff hunt.

Even without Cabrera, the Leo team still has plenty of viable outfielders ready to contribute. The first, pushing Trout to LF (cuz he's eligible there too) is Adam Jones (1,684), a pillar of the Baltimore community who's working hard to justify his megadeal with the Orioles both on and off the field. Playing across the outfield from Trout, is fellow top prospect Jason Heyward (1,744), whose bounceback season couldn't have come at a better time for the surprise-contender Braves. The next two outfielders, and thus the best candidates for DH, are also both centerfielders, giving Leo four such players on their active roster. B.J. Upton (1,296) is a more complete hitter but Colby Rasmus (1,259) has slightly more power (while also playing a slightly better centerfield). While they do hit from opposite sides of the plate, both struggle against lefties, so a platoon doesn't seem all that viable.

While the outfield is deep, the Leo infield is not without its stars as well. Two former AL MVPs line up at 2B and 3B: Dustin Pedroia (1,431) won the award in 2008 and Alex Rodriguez (1,160) took it the year before. While waiting for A-Rod to recover from a fractured left hand (suffered at the hand of recently-perfect Felix Rodriguez a month ago), the Lions will have to rely on Pablo Sandoval (893), known as Kung Fu Panda, but I like to refer to him as Undeserving All-Star. They've also got some depth at SS, with reds rookie Zack Cozart (1,140) and the second Oriole on the team J.J. Hardy (1,184) vying for the positional lead in points. The team is in somewhat of a transitional state at 1B, where the injured Todd Helton's (715) star is falling. Mark Reynolds (869) has struggled at the position, but Anthony Rizzo (584) is quickly on his way towards taking that mantle.

On paper, before the start of 2012, the Leo starting rotation looked a lot less intimidating than it looks now. Madison Bumgarner (1,980) was the only starter ranked under 100 and was projecting as a No. 3 starter at best for the Giants, but he's already eclipsed his 2011 point total by over 100 points and is pitching like a No. 1 even on a pitching staff that includes Matt Cain. All-Star Matt Harrison (1,578) has blossomed into the Rangers' most consistent starter overtaking fellow Leos Yu Darvish (1,166, struggles transitioning to America) and Colby Lewis (979, injury). No one could have predicted that Chris Capuano (1,500) would post the best ERA of his career at age 33, and Max Scherzer (1,480) has really stepped up his game for the Tigers, as he's leading the AL in K/9IP rate. Rounding out the rotation is another Dodger Chad Billingsley (1,239), who has continued his trend of starting slow and ramping it up as the season goes on (he has a 1.80 ERA in 7 second-half starts, as opposed to a 4.30 ERA in his 18 tries before the break).

Leo's best closer on paper, Drew Storen (142), missed most of the season following surgery to remove bone chips in his right elbow, and found his closer's role successfully taken over by Tyler Clippard upon his return. That puts Huston Street (1,240) as the team's top stopper, but he's been battling his own series of injuries this year, the latest being a strained calf that's kept him out of action since early August. Then their second backup option for saves was basically neutralized when Brett Myers (884) was traded from the Astros to the White Sox. Without a proven healthy closer, the team has limped into last place in the league in saves - but surprisingly their pitching staff leads the league in strikeouts. They're a middle of the road team in pretty much every other category.

Looking at the numbers, I think it's mathematically impossible for Leo to secure a post-season berth. Libra and Aries are 3 wins ahead in the Positive division, ditto for Capricorn in the Negative division, and it looks like Cancer will secure the 4th seed this week with a win over Scorpio - the two teams are currently tied with 10 wins apiece, and Cancer has a sizable lead in points... over everybody, strange as it seems. The astrology playoffs start the week after the first round of my actual fantasy playoffs end, so if I get eliminated, I'll spend more time tracking these rosters through the post-season. If I'm still in the hunt, though, expect these posts to be somewhat less frequent.

Cancer Crabs: In-Depth Analysis

Those of you who follow both the Zodiacal calendar and this blog will know that I'm far behind schedule for an In-Depth Analysis profile on a fantasy team very close to my heart: the Cancer Crabs. Besides having two of the most unfortunate names in all of astrology (plus a hilariously suggestive symbol), the Cancer team represents the top major league players born under the same sun sign as your humble blogger. According to the literature on the sign, Cancerians could be either helpful or annoying to have in the clubhouse - they can have a kind, sympathetic, and nurturing character, but they also tend towards being overly-emotional, moody, and hypersensitive. I guess that's what comes from the combined aspects of changeability from a water sign that's ruled by the moon. Let's see what kind of depth chart comes from such a sign.

This team has some more productive batters than I thought would be the case at the beginning of the season, but I'd like to begin by focusing on the real area of strength: the pitching staff - as of this writing, the team's top three scorers are all starting pitchers. Stephen Strasburg leads the NL in strikeouts (and strikeouts per 9 innings) as he approaches his controversial Shutdown Day. All-Star snub Ryan Vogelsong leads the same league in ERA, as the 34-year-old is doing a good job proving that his breakout 2011 season (following a four-year absence from the majors) was no fluke. And although CC Sabathia is trailing the Yankees staff ace Hiroki Kuroda by 2.0 full WAR, he's not a bad fantasy SP3 by any means.

Before rounding out the rotation, let's take a look at this dominant bullpen, which, thanks to injuries and ineffectiveness, now features five (5) relievers who have spent most of the season racking up saves for their clubs. Jim Johnson had been a revelation for the Orioles through mid-July (including a scoreless April), Chris Perez just secured his second straight season with 30+ saves last night, and Jason Motte is the only pitcher on this staff to sport a WHIP under 1. Meanwhile, in San Francisco, Brian Wilson's injury catapulted Santiago Casilla into the closer's role (although his job has since been in flux of late), and in Anaheim, the struggles of Jordan Walden (an All-Star last year and 7th in Rookie of the Year voting) prompted the Angels to trade for Ernesto Frieri.

Luckily the rest of the rotation is deep enough to have effective pitchers to replace Strasburg if/when he goes down, although no one can hope to emulate his performance. Recent trade chip Paul Maholm has ramped up his value since going undrafted to start the season and Taiwanese import Wei-Yin Chen been solid for the Orioles. Strasburg's replacement will likely come from a group including Phil Hughes, Tim Hudson, and Edinson Volquez, whose combined 3.99 ERA is a full 1.2 runs above the young phenom's. However Brandon McCarthy's (2.68 ERA in 13 injury-plagued starts) return from the disabled list should make the situation a little easier to swallow.

With the lack of a true first-round pick fantasy stud to anchor the offense, any conversation about this lineup has to start with star power, and for that we turn to Derek Jeter. The 38 year-old Yankee captain might not turn in solid defense at shortstop anymore (if he ever did to begin with), but he does lead the AL in both at bats and hits (80% of them singles). Among other Cancer players known for their positive clubhouse presence are Jeter's double play partner Brandon "Dat Dude" Phillips and Torii Hunter, who doesn't have a starting spot in this crowded outfield.

The leading outfield scorer is Cleveland's Shin-Soo Choo, who, if he hadn't earned an exemption by helping his native South Korean team win a gold medal at the 2010 Asian Games, would right now be serving a mandatory military service. Flanking him in the second corner outfield spot is Nelson Cruz, who prior to the season was ranked just one spot behind teammate and first-half fantasy machine Josh Hamilton. Manning center field (because any contender has to prove it's good up the middle) is Angel Pagan, whose days of batting 5th for the Giants are likely over due to their acquisition of a legitimate power hitter in Hunter Pence (his .140 average for the team notwithstanding). But the top offensive scorer overall is third baseman Aramis Ramirez, whose league-leading 37 doubles don't quite make up for the lost production from Prince Fielder, but at least he comes quite a bit cheaper.

Cancer is lucky enough to have two of fantasy's best behind the plate: Yadier Molina (who has recently started making noise with his bat in addition to his well-regarded glovework) and Miguel Montero (whose role as DH is probably on par with starting a tight end as your flex in fantasy football, a sport I'm trying to learn this year). First base was a mess for this team early on following Adam Lind's demotion to the minor leagues. For a while Juan Rivera's backup work for the Dodgers was their best bet, but when Allen Craig came off the DL and started playing at the Pujols-vacated first base for the Cardinals, Cancer had found its man.

In my Astrology Baseball fantasy league that I set up, Cancer is in a 4-way tie for 5th place overall in the standings with an even .500 record. With 3+ weeks to go, they're not assured of a playoff spot, but they've actually scored the most fantasy points out of any team: their 18,346 points are currently 246 points ahead of the Aries Rams. Granted I haven't been changing the rosters regularly - it's enough work maintaining my fantasy team in the league where I actually drafted and am, you know, competing with real people - but neither have I shown Cancer any favoritism, so their performance has to do at least somewhat with the merit of the players. I don't know about you, but I'm pulling for the Crabs to go all the way this year.

Trade Deadline Recap

We can now clearly see both headlights of the 2012 non-waiver trade deadline in our rear-view mirrors and it's now time to get on with the final two months of the regular season. But before we put this eventful and exciting milestone to bed, I'd like to present a recap of the proceedings in the form of (what else) a fantasy baseball list. What follows is a 25-man roster comprised of the best players to be moved via trade before Tuesday's deadline. The list includes each player's primary position, their old and new teams, and their fantasy points at the time they were traded.

Of the five teams that show up the most often on this roster (four times apiece), only one of them - the Los Angeles Dodgers - could be considered buyers. The Boys in Blue are the only team to notch three acquisitions on this roster: 1) a top of the order hitter (Shane Victorino) who is now assured to bat near the top of the order since he's no longer blocked by Jimmy Rollins - the Flyin' Hawaiian has spent only 8 games in the leadoff spot this year. 2) a power bat (Hanley Ramirez) who, despite a general disappointing pall that has fallen on everything Miami this year, has quietly put together a fine season. And 3) a bullpen piece (Brandon League) to replace the one they gave up to get the player #1 on this list (Josh Lindblom). They also recently made the first POST-deadline acquisition (pitcher Joe Blanton, also from the Phillies) but that's a different. Those two hitters they acquired are the 2nd and 3rd highest-scoring batters to change hands pre-deadline this year, trailing only Hunter Pence (yet ANOTHER Philly) who went to division-rival Giants. The Giants also got versatile infielder Marco Scutaro, with the only Major League talent they parted with being backup outfielder Nate Schierholtz (who went to... you guessed it, the Phillies).

The highest-scoring pitcher to be moved went to a team whose only major deal was to acquire the highest-scoring pitcher available at the deadline - however Zack Greinke has failed to win either of his two starts with the Angels - in fact, the temperamental starter hasn't won since June. I'm considering trying to sell him high from my fantasy team before the general negativity of Anaheim causes him to combust. Greinke wasn't the only chip Milwaukee moved; they also sent backup catcher George Kottaras to the A's, the only move made by Billy Beane's club in the first post-Moneyball (2011 film) trade deadline, failing to capitalize on the momentum of a franchise-best July to improve the team in any meaningful way. Meanwhile, in a similar situation to the Giants and the Dodgers in the NL West, the Rangers have matched Anaheim SP for SP, with the acquisition of former NL ERA leader Ryan Dempster (although the fact that his FIP is nearly a run higher than his ERA doesn't bode well for his smoke and mirrors act continuing in Arlington).

Dempster wasn't the only player the Cubs shipped to the Rangers - the two clubs connected earlier on deadline day in a trade for Geovany Soto, whose main purpose it seems will be to leech at bats from Mike Napoli (just another way the AL West is conspiring to undermine my fantasy team). Nor was Dempster the only starter dealt by the Cubs - two days before the deadline, they shipped Paul Maholm to Atlanta (along with fourth outfielder Reed Johnson) after the Braves were spurned by Dempster, who invoked his no-trade protection rights after a deal had been worked out between the two clubs.

Along with the Phillies and Cubs, Miami and Houston were the biggest sellers this year. In addition to the Hanley Ramirez deal, Miami also sent two key players to the Tigers: first time free agent to be Anibal Sanchez and returning 2B Omar Infante, who has cooled off in the last month and a half after swinging a hot stick to start the season. I still bat him second in my projected order because even though his .305 OBP is nothing special, it's better than Ichiro's .287, which shouldn't even earn him the "second leadoff" 6th spot, but he does have a bit of a track record on his side.

In their last year in the NL, the Astros have taken the predictable step of purging themselves of 30-something veterans making $10 million-plus per year: Wandy Rodriguez went to shore up the upstart Pirates rotation and Brett Myers hasn't given up a run yet for the White Sox... they even managed to pull off the rare sell-to-the-sellers trick, sending Carlos Lee to the Marlins before the Fish realized they were fighting a losing battle in 2012. They did receive highly touted 3B prospect Matt Dominguez in the deal, prompting them to trade Chris Johnson to the Diamondbacks to clear up a path for him. They also sent honorable mention J.A. Happ to the Blue Jays in a blockbuster deal, getting some return from the now twice-traded lefty before he hits the open market for the first time. The only other player worth honorably mentioning has to be Francisco Liriano, who is starting tomorrow for the White Sox.

One of the most surprising deals of the deadline had to be the Reds acquiring rejuvenated closer Jonathan Broxton from the Royals, since Cincinnati already features the hardest-throwing closer in the game right now. I wonder if this move will pave the way for Aroldis Chapman to head into the rotation, or if J-Brox will simply languish as a setup man for the rest of 2012. I wonder what would have been better for his 2013 free agent value: setting up for a playoff contender or closing for a team who's dead in the water.