FANTASY DRAFT RESULTS

Well, it's too late to do a piece on Fantasy pitchers, as we conducted our draft yesterday. Even if it wasn't too late, I looked at a couple of ways to do it, and I'm not even sure how to produce a meaningful graph on the subject - pitchers don't break down into neat, easy-to-color-code categories like position players do. If I come up with something in the near future, I'll be sure to post it.

In the meantime, I have something much more fun to report, analyze in-depth, and otherwise fiend on:

OUR FANTASY DRAFT RESULTS!!! WOOOO!!!!1

Here's how my team broke down, round by round:

ROUND 1 - I was randomly selected for the first pick! What a boon! I naturally decided to pick the best overall player in all of baseball, Albert Pujols. Sure he plays in a deep position, but there's no one else who even comes close to putting up his kind of numbers with his consistency.

ROUNDS 2 & 3 - From here on out, because we had selected the snake-draft system (where the draft order alternates every round, first to last for odd rounds, last to first for even rounds), I got to make two choices in a row. Since there were 10 teams in our draft, my next two picks were numbers 20 and 21.

With these picks, I took AL Cy Young winner Zack Greinke and shorstop Troy Tulowitski. Greinke is arguably the league's best pitcher (next to Felix Hernandez), and I decided he was too good to pass up, even though the experts all say that you should usually gravitate towards NL pitchers, who get to face the opposing pitcher rather than the opposing DH. Tulo was basically MLB's second best shortstop last year, and puts up numbers comparable to an elite left fielder or third baseman at a much scarcer position.

ROUNDS 4 & 5 - Jonathan Broxton and Andre Ethier. Broxton is either the game's best closer or second best, depending on how bullish you are on Mariano Rivera remaining dominant at age 40, so he's a solid foot in the door regarding saves. Ethier, the game's second best right-fielder, should benefit from a full season of Manny Ramirez and another year of maturity.

ROUNDS 6 & 7 - Chone Figgins and Josh Johnson. I needed someone to steal bases and draw walks, and Figgins seemed like the perfect choice, given the possibility that he will spend significant time at second base this year for the M's. Johnson just got a big contract from the Marlins, so he should be pitching free of job security worries.

ROUNDS 8 & 9 - Shane Victorino and Shin-Soo Choo. And with that, my outfield is complete. How, you ask, since both Ethier and Choo played right field last year? Well, my friends, his 20 games in left field (against 124 in right) qualified Choo for the other corner spot, which means I get a right field quality producer for the price of a left fielder. Victorino's just pure scrappy talent: triples and steals abound.

ROUNDS 10 & 11 - Heath Bell and Lance Berkman. I admit it, I panicked here. Bell was a cinch, as it's pretty essential to have two dominant closers, and Papelbon, Joakim Soria, and Andrew Bailey just went in the previous round. For my next pick, I had my sights set on Kurt Suzuki, but I was really uneasy to draft someone ranked so far below slot. I didn't have a good enough awareness of the needs of other teams, and I went with a big bat to fill my DH slot (or so I thought). Had I looked closer, I would have seen that Berkman has barely done any running this spring and is a good bet to start the season on the DL. Suzuki went five picks later.

ROUNDS 12 & 13 - Jorge Posada and Clayton Kershaw. Nervous about my prospects of picking up a useful catcher, I sat biting my nails until I saw that Posada was still available. Kershaw is a good bet to break out and take on the responsibility of being the Dodgers' ace, if Joe Torre's handling of Matt Kemp is any guide.

ROUNDS 14 & 15 - Jose Lopez and Rajai Davis. Lopez was the only really productive second baseman left on the market, and ironically he might switch positions with my starting third baseman Chone Figgins. And if two guys who can steal bases (Figgins and Victorino) is good, why not add Davis and make it three?

ROUNDS 16 through 25 - From here on out I basically drafted a pitcher and a hitter each round. Pitchers: Roy Oswalt and Joe Blanton who I'm banking on to eat some innings. J.A. Happ, who looks like he's developing quite nicely. Octavio Dotel as a sleeper closer; hopefully he's ready for the start of the season. And Matt Guerrier, a setup man; because we have Holds as a scoring category this year.
Batters: Ryan Ludwick, who will likely have Pujols and Matt Holliday on base quite a few times to knock in. Garrett Jones, who can fill in for my IF spot if Berkman falters. Erick Aybar, another scrappy basestealer and backup shortstop. Ian Stewart, to back up the other two infield positions. And Jack Cust who will serve as my full time DH.

I have another thing to admit: I goofed on the rules. I saw the "DH" spot, and I thought that anyone could occupy it. As it turns out, though, you need someone who actually qualifies as a DH (which doesn't leave you a lot of people to work with. Knowing this, I might have passed up Rajai Davis in favor of Julio Borbon, the projected leadoff hitter for the Rangers. He could have been by DH and then my sleeper Ludwick could have been my fourth OF. But the way it works out, I have more A's on my team, which is good, because I want them to succeed unqualifiedly.

Here's a graphical representation of my team. These are the guys I'll be rooting to succeed all season.

POS	Name	swp	swp/g
3B	Chone Figgins	2,108	13.3
CF	Shane Victorino	2,077	13.3
1B	Albert Pujols	3,196	20.0
SS	Troy Tulowitski	2,304	15.3
RF	Andre Ethier	2,223	13.9
LF	Shin-Soo Choo	2,198	14.1
C	Jorge Posada	1,447	13.0
DH	Jack Cust	1,593	10.7
2B	Jose Lopez	1,797	11.7
1B	Lance Berkman*	1,826	13.4
IF	Ian Stewart	1,456	9.9
SS	Erick Aybar	1,481	10.8
CF	Rajai Davis	1,477	11.8
RF	Ryan Ludwick	1,584	11.4
1B/RF	Garrett Jones	1,239	15.1
SP	Zack Greinke	2,726	82.6
	Josh Johnson	2,093	63.4
	Clayton Kershaw	1,655	53.4
	Roy Oswalt	1,289	43.0
	Joe Blanton	1,454	46.9
	J.A. Happ	1,557	44.5
RP	Jonathan Broxton	2,152	29.5
	Heath Bell	2,062	30.3
	Octavio Dotel*	525	8.5
	Matt Guerrier	861	10.9

Fantasy Breakdown: Position Players

In an effort to better prepare myself for my upcoming Fantasy Draft, I've analyzed the top-ten ranked players in each position (ranked by swp) and plotted them all on a graph for easy comparison. This method makes it easier to determine which positions are more valuable to draft in the early rounds, and which you can hold off on until later. First things first, here's the graph: explanation to follow:


Except for a couple of outliers, it kind of follows a nice-looking pattern, doesn't it? Regression to the mean is a powerful force.

Next, here's the legend, in descending order from average swp. Some of the colors are difficult to differentiate; I apologize - my graph-making sensibilities haven't progressed much beyond the third grade.

[1B] - RED = First Basemen (avg. swp = 2,455)
[LF] - BROWN = Left Fielders (2,194)
[2B] - BLUE = Second Basemen (2,168)
[RF] - ORANGE = Right Fielders (2,092)
[3B] - GREEN = Third Basemen (2,040)
[SS] - BLACK = Shortstops (1,998)
[CF] - PURPLE = Center Fielders (1,976)
[DH] - YELLOW = Designated Hitters (1,879)
[C] - GRAY = Catchers (1,577)

As expected, first basemen lead the pack in every rank. Led by such powerhouses as Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, Ryan Howard, and Mark Teixeira, first base proves again that it's the most reliable spot to find offense on the diamond. It's no coincidence that first base is also one of the least demanding defensive positions in the game, so it's easier to find a big bat without much athletic ability, teach him how to dig the occasional low throw out of the dirt, and watch him swing away.

DRAFT VERDICT: whenever in the draft you chance to draft a first baseman, chances are he'll produce for you. Also a good position with which to fill your DH slot.

The next least-demanding fielding position, left field, is next on the list. The far and away leader is Ryan Braun, a guy who converted to left after committing too many errors at his original position (third base) during a campaign in which he nevertheless won Rookie of the Year honors (2007). Two guys who made big free agent splashes this year (Jason Bay and Matt Holliday) flank someone who will likely make a big splash next year (Carl Crawford), then there's a sharp decline.

VERDICT: If you can get a good one fast, jump on it. Otherwise, don't depend on a left fielder to carry your offense.

Second base was anomalous this year, plain and simple. Among the top guys, Chase Utley, Ian Kinsler, and Dustin Pedroia are the only good bets to repeat their top-flite performances. Aaron Hill was a straight-up fluke (there, I said it), Ben Zobrist and Robinson Cano will almost certainly regress toward the mean, and Brian Roberts has been dealing with a balky back. There's still a lot of potential here, just don't expect them to reach the same level as last year.

VERDICT: Considering these guys play in the middle infield, they've been pretty darn consistent, and promise to carry that trend through 2010.

One look at the line of right fielders from 2009 is enough to show us that we're no longer in the mid-to-late-90's, when guys like Manny Ramirez, Juan Gonzalez, and Vladimir Guerrero absolutely dominated the sport. Right field has become a picture of consistency, featuring stars like Jayson Werth, Andre Ethier, and Bobby Abreu. These guys can still definitely carry your lineup, but they won't knock your socks off like the previous stalwarts of the position.

VERDICT: Right fielders are so consistent that you're bound to get a solid player no matter where you draft one.

The hot corner is not only one of the more dependable positions, it's also one of the more diverse. You have power guys like Evan Longoria, Ryan Zimmerman, and Mark Reynolds, but you also have leadoff-type hitters Chone Figgins (although he may move to second base in 2010) and Michael Young (who moved from second base, and then later shortstop). With Alex Rodriguez and Aramis Ramirez slated to play full seasons and David Wright hopefully turning back into David Wright, there should be a glut of good third basemen to choose from.

VERDICT: Go big or go home. There's a lot of talent here, but a good one can make your franchise, and a bad one will leave you wondering why you didn't pick up a good one in the early rounds.

A shortstop's main role is to be the captain of the infield, so skills with the glove have always taken the forefront over skills with the bat. That being said, the past couple of decades have always featured an elite group of shorstops: A-Rod and Nomar in the 90's, Rollins and Reyes in the 00's, and Hanley Ramirez and Troy Tulowitski headlining the group heading into the 10's.

VERDICT: Unless you get one of the two or three superstars (Derek Jeter qualified here last year, but his age is bound to catch up to him), you're more likely than not to field an offensive placeholder at this position.

You run into the same problem with center fielders that you do with shortstops: your CF's main role is to take charge of your defense, and everything else is a bonus. Because of the speed necessary to cover a lot of ground in the outfield, you'll usually see center fielders steal a lot of bases (Jacoby Ellsbury, Shane Victorino), but occasionally you'll see one with a little pop as well (Matt Kemp, Curtis Granderson).

VERDICT: Try to get a fast one, but don't sweat it if he's not a five-tool kind of guy.

If you have an eye for detail, you probably noticed that there's only five DH candidates. That's because less than half the teams in the majors feature the DH spot in their lineup, and of those teams, few employ a full-time DH. Two of the guys on this list (Jason Kubel and Jack Cust) played significant time in the outfield for their clubs, and a third (Adam Lind) could play left field in a pinch. The Angels will supposedly give Hideki Matsui a try in the outfield. David Ortiz, however, is not going anywhere.

VERDICT: Not at all important to focus on one of these guys, as you can plug any player into the DH slot. Only go after a full-time DH if he's a superstar and you have backups at all your other positions.

Last but not least, we have the catchers. Wait a minute - they're last and least. The top couple of guys (Joe Mauer and Victor Martinez) compare with the leaders of other positions, and there are a couple of serviceable guys below them (Brian McCann and Kurt Suzuki). But other than that, it's kind of an embarrassing crop of players.

VERDICT: If you have a choice between an elite catcher and a good infielder or a decent outfielder, definitely go for it. But don't pass up a chance to pick up a player who spends more time practicing the art of hitting than working with pitchers and studying the habits of opposing batters.

So there you have it: a graphical representation of the best position players in 2009. Looking at it closely, I'm not sure how much it really edifies the economics of the fantasy draft. But I had fun doing it, and I hope you had fun reading about it.

Next time (or eventually): A similar Graph, featuring Pitchers rather than Position Players.

Dynamics of a Spring Training game

These games don't feel like regular nine-inning baseball affairs. They're not played the same way. They're not managed the same way. And they don't have the same purpose.

During the regular season, a baseball team tries to win as many games as they can. They have, for the most part, a set roster for which to accomplish this rather straightforward (yet, far from simple) goal. Coming into Spring Training, a team has a somewhat different set of goals; all with the final regular season goal in mind. Some of these goals include...

1) Warming up the regulars. Most teams have the majority of their starting positions filled before Spring Training even starts. For example, the St. Louis Cardinals know that Albert Pujols will be manning first base, and the Twins know that Joe Mauer will be behind the plate. The Yankees have four-fifths of their starting rotation all planned out: Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Andy Pettitte, and Javier Vazquez.

For these guys who are basically assured of a starting spot, Spring Training is a time to put in some regular work, get back in the groove of real-time game situations, and generally shake off some of the cobwebs from a long off-season. Pitchers are usually held to a strict schedule: one to three innings per start, just enough to work on velocity and location without getting fatigued. Batters will usually play only a handful of innings - again, just enough to work on the timing of their swings - before giving way to the replacements. Which brings me to the next goal...

2) Filling up all the roster spots. Some teams enter Spring Training with various roles yet to be filled. For instance, the Dodgers aren't exactly sure who will play second base. The Blue Jays have about three guys who could potentially close games. Nearly all 30 teams have at least some level of competition for at least one spot in the rotation. (Possible exceptions in this category: the Rays, provided David Price and Wade Davis turn out to be the real thing, the Braves, if Kenshin Kawakami's arm holds out, and the Giants, provided Madison Bumgarner meets expectations.)

For the players competing for starting jobs (or backup types competing for roster spots), Spring Training is an opportunity for them to show their stuff and prove they belong in the big leagues. And even though it's only preseason, the pressure's always on, since players generally don't get a lot of spring at-bats. These players who are on the fence have to show up to camp sharp and ready to play to the best of their abilities in a relatively small sample size.

3) Give the young kids a taste of the action. During the first part of Spring Training, you'll usually see a lot of players in major league camp who are basically guaranteed to either start the season - or play the entire season - in the minor leagues. After a couple of weeks, these guys will generally be sent down to minor league camp.

Teams let these kids play with the big boys for a couple of reasons. One is that when the regular starters are still on strict schedules or limitations, they need warm bodies to replace them during the late innings. And another reason is to give these minor leaguers some time playing against actual big league talent. Granted it's during the spring when nobody's at full strength. But players (good ones, at least) learn a little bit more about the game with each at-bat, and the more experience they get, the better players they will be in the long run. And better players help a team score more runs (and thus win more games) than worse ones...


With these different goals in mind, it's useful to look at Spring Training games not as a single contest between two teams, but as several mini-contests between two organizations. The first few innings resemble a regular season games, what with most of the regular starters on the field (or roughly half of them if it's a split-squad game) and a starting pitcher who's at least in the running for a rotation spot. As these guys get their regular work in and start coming out of the game for replacements, we can start to reevaluate the statuses of the players in the game: In the 4th or 5th innings, you could see a lineup entirely made up of projected bench players. Come the 7th or 8th innings, they'll mostly be either minor league veterans who have continually struggled to make the major leagues or greenhorns who are seeing their first action against the big boys.

If you want to learn about a particular organization's depth, and you're willing to keep every player and his role in proper context, watching a Spring Training game all the way through can be a fun and rewarding experience... but only for those of us with True Baseball Grit.

Spring Training Week 1

Well, Spring Training is finally here! I happened to catch a few innings of various spring training games throughout this week, and I had some reactions. Here are some of them:


* Jason Heyward looks fantastic. I don't know if you've heard the stories about this guy, but I have: how he hits the ball so hard that Braves manager Bobby Cox says it sounds like it used to sound when Hank Aaron hit the ball. Or how he hits batting practice home runs so far - like, out of the stadium far - that the Braves had to install a safety net over the parking lot to keep cars from getting dented. He stands 6'4" and 220 lbs, and he's only 20 years old. 20 years old! Imagine how tall he'll be when he loses all his baby teeth.

In the first nationally televised game this spring (Braves vs. Mets on MLB Network) Heyward was 1-for-1 with two walks and a stolen base. The Braves' starting right field job is his to lose, and he's going to turn a lot of heads this season.

* The New York Mets are pussies. In that same game, the Mets were supposed to trot out most of their regular players to kick off spring training: third baseman David Wright, right fielder Jeff Francoeur, left fielder Jason Bay... you know, all the interesting guys. Instead, due to slightly muddy field conditions following a rainstorm the previous night, the Mets top brass got worried that one of their stars might slip in the mud, and instad pencilled in a starting lineup of all second/third stringers.

I mean, I know Mets players lost approximately a gazillion man-hours of playing time due to catastrophic injuries last year, but come on! It's the first game of Spring Training, you're up against one of your division rivals. At least give your regulars a couple of innings to start off Spring Training for everyone at home. Brian McCann and Nate McLouth and Yunel Escobar and Jason Heyward all came to play for the opposing team.

Carlos Beltran and Jose Reyes weren't going to play anyway because they're recovering from surgeries, which actually made for kind of an important start for center fielder Gary Matthews Jr. At the end of Januray, Matthews was acquired from the Angels as a fourth outfielder. But seeing as starting CF Beltran won't be ready by opening day, Matthews can basically audition to hold his place for the first part of the season. So far he's made the most of his opportunities, competing with the likes of Angel Pagan and Fernando Martinez. We'll see how his job search continues.


* Roy Halladay will lead the Phillies' rotation. In a marquee matchup on Thursday, the Phillies faced off against the Yankees in a World Series rematch. The game featured an ace vs. ace matchup: big lefty power-horse (part powerhouse, part workhorse) C.C. Sabathia vs. newly acquired (from the Blue Jays, by way of the Seattle Mariners) Roy Halladay.

C.C. was a little shaky, allowing two hits and two walks in his two innings, which is to be expected after a long off-season, following a playoffs process during which he was a member of a three-man rotation. But Doc Halladay, by contrast, looked absolutely flawless: two innings, no hits, no walks, three strikeouts. His location was just spot on, even in his Spring Training debut. This guy is a special talent, and he will make the Phillies stronger.

I'm wondering how strong, though. Sure they got ace pitcher Roy Halladay, but they gave up ace pitcher Cliff Lee to get him. Pound for pound, Doc's probably a better, more valuable pitcher than Lee. But if they had somehow managed to net both of them, their starting rotation would be Halladay, Lee, Cole Hamels, Joe Blanton, J.A. Happ. I don't want to say "unprecedented," but that would have been a veritable pantsload of talent there. As they stand now, three guys are competing for the Phillies' fifth starter spot: Kyle Kendrick, Antonio Bastardo, and Jamie Moyer (who does have another year on his contract). I guess GM Ruben Amaro Jr. didn't want to totally deplete the farm system by using prospects instead of Cliff Lee to trade for Halladay.

* Ben Sheets faces live batters for the first time in almost a year and a half. Oh, please let him stay healthy for the whole season. Ohplesae ohplease ohplease!

These storylines and more are just some of what makes Baseball such a compelling sport.

Fantasy Baseball 2010!

So with the first Spring Training game less than a week away, it's time to start getting serious about Fantasy Baseball! I've already joined a league: the same group in which I finished just inches away from last place in 2009. But it's a new service (sure, I'll send a plug to ESPN's FREE Fantasy games) with a new layout and new statistical categories, so I'll have a chance to start somewhat fresh.

I've already performed in-depth analysis of last year's stats, including breaking all the top players down by position. I'm currently working on draft strategies that will help me make the most of my roster spots. For example, the pool of top-ranked players in such offensively-light positions such as catcher or shortstop is significantly shallower than positions such as first base. When you're drafting, do you use a higher pick to snag one of the top guys in a lower-depth position, banking on the fact that you can usually get decent production from a middle of the road first baseman? Or do you just write off catchers and middle infielders as a wash (except for the power players like Joe Mauer, Chase Utley, and Hanley Ramirez) and spend your top picks on the best of the best - first basemen like Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder who are just one of a very deep field of talent at their position, but who are guaranteed to put up stronger numbers than any other player?

And to top if all off, how should you distribute picks between hitters and pitchers?

Most of these calculations have to be done on draft day itself, because everything changes due to who's available and what position you're in. But we do the diligence to keep as little as possible up to ... CHANCE.

HEADLINES

* MANNY RAMIREZ will not return to the Dodgers in 2011!
Everyone is freaking out about a comment made by Manny Ramirez (remember, guys, this is Manny Ramirez we're talking about here) this Monday that he likely will not return to play left field for the Dodgers after this season. The organization responded with as quick a "no comment" as possible, his teammates wrote it all off as a joke, while rational baseball people with knowledge of the situation just rolled their eyes and wondered why everyone's making such a big deal about a passing comment from one of the game's best-established goofballs. And what's more, a comment that's pretty sure to be accurate. Consider the facts:

Ramirez will be two months away from turning 39 by opening day 2011. He already requires periodic rest for his aching legs and back. Who knows if he'll be able to man left field regularly and the Dodgers, a National League team, won't be able to give him at-bats in the DH spot. It might just make perfect sense for an American League team with deep pockets to pick up Manny for his bat without having to worry about his suspect defense or durability.

Ballplaying abilities aside, this next season will be the last in Manny's contract, which means if the Dodgers want to retain his services for another year, they'll have to embark on another epic negotiation session with Manny's agent Scott Boras. Lest we forget the 2008-09 offseason in which the Ramirez/Boras petulance-fest resulted in a late arrival to Spring Training due to months of holding out and trying to leverage Frank McCourt and Ned Colletti with stories of fictional interest from other teams. Manny eventually got a one year contract in excess of $20 million with a player option for a second year at pretty much the same price... and that was when he was about to turn 37. If you think Boras is gonna be any more forgiving next year, or that the Dodgers brass are at all looking forward to dealing with him again, you're got another thing comin' on both counts.

Unless Manny wants to both take a massive pay cut and call off his dog of an agent before next off-season, I'd say there's a pretty good chance he's right about it being his last year in Dodger Blue.


* JUSTIN DUCHSCHERER is more machine now than man!

Remember Just Duchscherer? Really good reliever with Oakland for three years in the mid-2000's. In 2008 they converted him to a starter, and he responded with an All-Star season, despite only making 22 starts due to injury. He missed all of 2009 with problems with his elbow, hip, and clinical depression.

As an A's fan, it was great to see him take the hill when he was healthy, but because he was so prone to injury, it just wasn't worth it to keep him on the roster (or on the DL more often than not). So when he became a free agent after the 2009 season, I was kind of excited to see another team deal with his troubles. Then imagine my chagrin when Oakland signed Duky to a one-year, incentive-laden contract.

Everything seemed to be going fine until about a week ago when he felt pain in his lower back. He went under the knife to relieve the pain, and now there's no set timetable for his return. At least there's a slew of 20-somethings ready to take his place.


* Hey, check it out, JOHNNY DAMON signed with the Tigers!

The Detroit Tigers have a new left fielder and he's someone I just recently wrote about. What does this mean for the team that came just one game short of making the playoffs in 2009?

Magglio Ordonez is cemented in right field because of the mammoth contract he "earned" by reaching a certain number of plate appearances last year. Former Yankees prospect Austin Jackson (acquired in a three team deal with the Diamondbacks) will man center field. Damon will take left, pushing out the contingent of Ryan Raburn and Clete Thomas who were previously penciled in to the spot. Damon's at the point in his career where he would benefit from some time at DH, especially in Comerica Park's spacious outfield, but manager Jim Leyland is strangely obsessed with trotting Carlos Guillen out there game after game.

Will Damon's acquisition be enough to edge the Tigers past the Twins for a spot in this year's big Fall tournament? It's probably a wash considering they lost Curtis Granderson and Edwin Jackson, but the chips will fall where they may.

I Can't Believe He's Still a Free Agent Profiles: Johnny Damon

Johnny David Damon was born on November 5, 1973 (Scorpio) in Fort Riley, KS, an army base about 50 miles west of Topeka. After shuttling around the world army-brat style for most of his childhood, his family eventually settled in the Orlando area, where he attended Dr. Phillips High School. (Other notable baseball grads: White Sox catcher A.J. Pierzynski.) He was drafted in the first round (35th overall pick) by the Kansas City Royals in 1992 at age 18.

He blew through the minor leagues in just four years, swinging a quick stick (.318 average), displaying good patience at the plate (212 walks to 194 strikeouts; .401 OBP), and flashing a lot of speed on the basepaths (152 SB, 48 CS). He didn't hit for a great deal of power, amassing just 31 HR over the four seasons, but showed an ability for finding the gap, collecting 44 triples.

On August 12, 1995, after 111 games at AA Wichita, he skipped AAA entirely and broke into the majors as Kansas City's starting center fielder. For the next five years with the Royals, Damon would shuffle around all three outfield positions. In '96 he played about 60% of his games in center and the rest in right. In '97 he played almost evenly everywhere. In '98 he played center regularly with a smattering of games in right. In '99 he played left field pretty much exclusively. In '00 he spent equal time in center and left with a handful of games as DH.

Despite inconsistency regarding his defensive positioning, Damon's offense was extremely solid during his stay in KC. It took him a couple of years to get his sea legs, during which time his average hovered around the .270 mark. Then in '98 he started hitting for some power, in '99 his average and stolen base totals started climbing. His career arguably peaked in 2000, when he set (still applicable) career highs with a .327 avg, an .877 OPS, 214 hits, 136 runs, and 46 steals (he also led the league in the last two categories).

In 2001, at the height of his market value and coming into the final year of a contract in which he was owed $7.1 million, Damon was traded to the Oakland Athletics as part of a three team blockbuster trade. Billy Beane's A's were the clear winners here: Oakland also received Mark Ellis (who is still their starting second baseman) and starting pitcher Cory Lidle (who tragically passed away after the 2006 season). Kansas City got future Rookie of the Year Angel Berroa, washed up catcher A.J. Hinch, and marginally useful veteran reliever Roberto Hernandez. Tampa Bay received only promising outfielder Ben Grieve, who never really panned out.

Damon didn't perform at all well in his contract year, playing center and left field in spacious Oakland Coliseum. He hit just .256 with 9 HR and 27 SB. Granted, he was playing for a team that sent its runners less frequently than any other in the game, and the unfriendly dimensions of the A's's home ballpark may help explain the dropoff in his other offensive stats. Damon did, however, knock the cover off the ball in the 2001 AL Division Series against the Yankees, hitting at a .409 clip with 2 steals over five games.

Maybe it was this impressive performance against the rival Yankees rather than his disappointing 2001 season that netted Damon a pretty decent free agency payoff: 4 years and $32 million from the Boston Red Sox. For those four years, Boston top brass entrusted Damon with center field full time, despite evidence that he might have been better suited to a corner spot. Nevertheless, he more than earned his paycheck in the batter's box, scoring a ton of runs hitting leadoff for a legendarily powerful lineup. He even developed a power stroke at the expense of some of his speed - in 2004, he hit 20 home runs, drove in 94 runs, but stole only 19 bases (as opposed to 30 and 31 the two previous years).

2004 also saw the introduction of Damon's caveman-esque long hair and shaggy beard. His new 'do was a morale booster during Boston's historical curse-breaking run, in which they rallied from a near impossible deficit to defeat the Yankees in the ALCS and went on to defeat the St. Louis Cardinals to win their first World Series since Babe Ruth became left Boston 84 years ago.

In 2005, Damon again struggled during his contract year, hitting only 10 home runs and not improving on his low SB totals (18). Despite his lost power, Damon signed a mammoth 4-year, $52 million contract with the Yankees, where he was forced to shave his trademark beard. Red Sox Nation promptly spurned the turncoat Damon, who went on to hit a career-high 24 homers while slowly transitioning from center field to left.

In '07 and '08, Damon shied away from the longball (12 and 17) choosing to concentrate on getting on base and subsequently stealing them (27 and 29). But just as it appeared that Damon's big Boston-era bat was on the decline, he switched up his game again in 2009, tying his career-high 24 homers, but stealing only 12 bases.

At age 36, Damon and his superagent Scott Boras appear to have fallen into the Greedy Trap of holding out for a contract with too much money and too many years. He still has a very useful set of skills for a major leaguer, but no team seems willing to commit on a deal, the end of which would see them paying top dollar for a 39 or 40-year-old left field/DH type with limited defensive capabilities.

The Tigers have expressed interest. The Braves have expressed interest. We'll just have to wait and see what the market says.

Below is a graphical representation of Johnny Damon's career measured by swp/time.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY, BAMBINO!!!

So today is Babe Ruth's birthday. The Great Bambino. The Sultan of Swat. George Herman.

This day seems a fine time for me to expound on an opinion of mine: that Babe Ruth is the greatest player to ever play the game of baseball (so far).

The argument over the greatest baseball player of all time always reminds me of the argument over the best rock 'n roll guitarist of all time - you can narrow the field to a top five or ten, and talk about the individual merits of each, but Jimi Hendrix will always have an unnatural edge over all competitors. There's just something intangible about how he plays and what he plays that can't be described except by saying that he exudes greatness.

Some say that he was a one-sided player. He hit a ton of home runs and got on base like he couldn't help it, but he didn't run the bases well with any consistency, and he never made any noise with his glove while playing one of the least-demanding positions on the field. These are definitely points against him, but before we condemn Ruth for his beer belly and lack of defensive reflexes, let's remember two things: 1) that Ruth spent the first five seasons of his career as a pitcher (a damn good pitcher, no less), and 2) just how dominant he was at the one aspect of offense at which he excelled.

First, let's look at his pitching. Granted, in the early part of the 20th century, baseball was a very different game for pitchers. He had two seasons as Boston's ace pitcher, 1916 and '17. Over those two seasons he was 1st & 7th in ERA (1.75 and 2.01, respectively), 3rd & 2nd in wins (23 and 24), and 3rd & 2nd in innings pitched (323.2 and 326.1). In '16 he led the league with 9 shutouts and 41 games started (he completed 23 of them). In '17, he allowed a few more runs (6 shutouts, tied for 5th in the league), but he completed a league leading 35 games out of 38 starts.

Remember, it was a very different game for pitchers back then, but think about that: Ruth left the game for a reliever only three times the entire season. Most starting pitchers nowadays don't even complete three games all season. Ruth also came in as a reliever himself six times over those two seasons, finishing five games. Now, it was a very different game for hitters too back then, but check out this incredible feat: over those two ace-caliber seasons, comprising over 1600 batters faced, Babe Ruth allowed exactly two home runs. TWO HOME RUNS! That's three fewer home runs than he hit in those two seasons combined, in less than 300 plate appearances.

1918 and 1919 saw his slow conversion into an outfielder, because Boston wanted his bat in the lineup more frequently. In those two years, Ruth led the league in home runs: the first year with 11, the second year with 29, a then-major league record. He would set another major league record the next year with 54, then again the following year with 59. He would eventually get that record up to 60, then we all know what happened with Roger Maris and Mickey Mantle and Billy Crystal.

For the next ten years after his 59 HR record-setting 1921, Ruth would lead the league in the category all but two years. He led the league in OPS all but one of those years, his injury-shortened 1925. He would routinely draw 130 to 140 walks, topping out at 170 in 1923. Not even Barry Bonds - despite all those seasons when he drew thousands of walks - comes close in the career OPS rankings. (The records on intentional walks from way back then are spotty at best, so we don't know how many times Ruth was given a true free pass to first base, but my guess is that it's probably nowhere close to the 120 IBBs given to Bonds in his historic 2004 season.)

Not only did the Babe completely revolutionize the way hitters approach the game of baseball, he embodied the spirit of the American baseball player, nay, the ideal American in general. He guzzled beer, scarfed down hot dogs, and gave generously to charity. I guess that stuff shouldn't figure in when we're discussing whether he's the greatest baseball player of all time. But then again, if baseball is a microcosm of life, shouldn't one's life choices also reflect on his status as a professional baseball player? Maybe not. But I'll always be in awe of the Babe's tremendous baseball skills and his winning personality.

Happy Birthday, Bambino.

The A's in 2010

Ah, I'm finally free of the mammoth project I set aside for myself, and now I can indulge in one of my favorite activities of the baseball off-season: Rank Speculation!

But before this, a word on my Divisional All-Stars project. Sure it went on too long, and I may have run my mouth a little too much about each player on each team. But when taken together, as an overview, I believe my eight lineup cards provide a pretty complete overview of the best players and biggest difference-makers in the game right now. So for those who might like to gain some background knowledge of the major people in baseball, I'd definitely suggest familiarizing themselves with the guys on these lists.

That being said, I kind of like how the A's are looking this coming year.

Last year, every single bat that was brought in to bolster the offense floundered. Plus the extra-young rotation showed a lot of promise (4th lowest ERA in the league), but failed to deliver solidly enough to make up for the team not scoring any runs.

Well, next year's offense won't have any big surprises. 2009 saw the acquisition of big-timer Matt Holliday via trade (he was eventually traded for a prize outfield prospect*); 2010 will see the addition of speedy center fielder Coco Crisp. This move will push Ryan Sweeney over to right field, and Rajai Davis over to left - which gives the A's three guys in the outfield with the athletic ability to play center field. It will also push Travis Buck to the bench, maybe taking some pressure off the hopefully-still-soon-to-be-stellar corner outfielder.

*He was actually traded directly for a third-base prospect, who was in turn spun off for the outfield prospect.

All this could change if the A's acquire dedicated left fielder Johnny Damon (the rumors are swirling), or if Jack Cust (resigned after becoming a free agent) spends some time in right field to make room for newly acquired (from the Cubs) Jake Fox at DH. Fox doesn't really have a natural position - he can play a little third and a little first base, but neither very well) - but he can hit well enough to merit some attention here.

Why not just let Fox try his hand at first base? Because Billy Beane knows that defense is just as good as offense. And because he's still hoping that Daric Barton will pan out at the plate. And why not put Fox at third? Because Eric Chavez has a lifetime reservation at the hot corner for the A's...

No, just kidding, thankfully. The truth is, not even counting Chavez, the A's have two solid options that come before Fox on the depth chart at third base: Kevin Kouzmanoff (acquired from the Padres for Scott Hairston and a prospect), whose slick fielding makes up for his mediocre bat, and Dallas McPherson, an ex-prospect for the Angels who slugged 42 home runs for the Marlins' AAA Minor League affiliate in 2008. But McPherson missed all of '07 and all of '09, so they may be in the same position with him as they are with Chavez.

The pitching staff's hopes rest on two factors. 1) The maturation of their youngsters (21-year-olds Brett Anderson and Trevor Cahill, Vin Mazzaro (22), Gio Gonzalez (23), and Josh Outman (24 but coming off an injury) come to mind).

2) The durability of a couple of oft-injureds. Neither Justin Duchscherer (resigned after not being offered arbitration) nor Ben Sheets (just signed yesterday) threw a single pitch in the majors in 2009. But both are signed to incentive-laden, 1-year deals. These kinds of contracts are great for pitchers with something to prove: if you perform well, they'll not only get their payday, but they'll have some stats to show prospective buyers the following off-season. But if they don't perform, they get paid either slightly more than or right around what they deserve.

Most of the bullpen's key players will return: Rookie of the Year closer Andrew Bailey, setup men Brad Ziegler and Michael Wuertz, and lefty specialist Craig Breslow will all sport the green & gold in 2010. Also, former-potential-closer Joey Devine should bounce back from his surgery that cause him to miss all of '09. And the departures of Santiago Casilla, Edgar Gonzalez, and Russ Springer definitely count as additions-through-subtraction.

Are they gonna beat the Angels? Probably not. Will they finish 2010 in the basement of their division again? I wouldn't count on it. But they'll have a tough row to hoe in a division with a lot of improvement.

AL Wild Card Divisional All-Stars

Here it is, finally: the very last one of these interminable Divisional All-Star squads. It's the American League Wild Card. I've put it off long enough, so no more, here they are:

POS	NAME	swp	swp/g		TEAM
2B	Brian Roberts	2,275	14.3		BAL
LF	Carl Crawford	2,337	15.0		TB
3B	Alex Rodriguez	2,032	16.4		NYY
1B	Kevin Youkilis	2,168	15.9		BOS
C	Victor Martinez	2,127	13.7		CLE/BOS
DH	Ben Zobrist	2,215	14.6		TB	2B
RF	Nick Swisher	1,848	12.3		NYY
SS	Jason Bartlett	1,998	14.6		TB
CF	Denard Span	1,923	13.3		MIN
SP	John Danks	1,527	47.7		CHW
	Mark Buerhle	1,485	45.0		CHW
	Gavin Floyd	1,484	49.5		CHW
	James Shields	1,476	44.7		TB
	Matt Garza	1,447	45.2		TB
CL	Jonathan Papelbon	1,853	28.1		BOS
RP	Brad Ziegler	667	9.7		OAK
	Mark Lowe	662	8.8		SEA
	Lance Cormier	588	11.1		TB
	Sean White	579	11.1		SEA
	Phil Coke	557	7.7		NYY
P	Justin Masterson	637	15.2		BOS/CLE

Aaron Hill on the Blue Jays had a monster season, which pushed the four other AL East second basemen down into the wild card hunt. The fact that this team includes not one, but two of those four runners up (Brian Roberts at leadoff and Ben Zobrist the DH) is a testament to the unusual strength of second sackers in the league this year. Roberts was a doubles machine, as usual, using his tremendous speed more to leg out extra-base hits rather than to steal bases (his SB totals has dropped by 10 in each of the last three years: 50 to 40 to 30 in '09).

Carl Crawford batted second for most of the year with the Rays, despite spending most of his career as a leadoff hitter, so he fits in nicely here behind Roberts. Back for a full season after missing significant time in '08, he ran for a career-high 60 stolen bases and was on base a career-high 36.4% of the time. Add to that his terrific defense in an underrated position, Crawford absolutely deserved this spot over runner-up Johnny Damon.

After the fabulous season he had, the only reason Alex Rodriguez missed out on a spot on the AL East team is because he missed the first month of the season recovering from hip surgery. Just barely cracking 30 HR and 100 RBI for the 12th straight season, A-Rod added an elusive feather into his cap by excelling in the 2009 playoffs, something he had been unable to do for most of his career. Sure he was embroiled in some steroid controversy, but who wasn't this year? And for all that he's accomplished in his career, he's still relatively young. Who knows if his recent reform will shed some kinder light on him if he eventually surpasses Barry Bonds as the all-time home run leader.

Kevin Youkilis has yet to stay healthy for more than 150 games in a season, but his mid- to upper-range power and his talent for getting on base has earned him a spot in the upper echelon of first basemen. His versatility is also a plus - if the Mike Lowell trade had gone through for Boston, Youk would have likely shifted across the diamond to third base.

Speaking of versatile Red Sox players, Victor Martinez, who will catch all year for Boston but who also has the ability to play first base, bats fifth for this team. He won't hit 30 home runs, but he will hit 20 to 25, drive in 100 runs and walk about as much as he strikes out. He's not an above average defender behind the plate, but he's a veteran and a team leader who fit in very well at Fenway Park after being acquired by the Indians part way through the season. The Red Sox should definitely benefit from a full year of this guy.

Ben Zobrist made a splash in his first year with regular playing time, spending significant time at both second base and right field. He was exceptional at every aspect of his game, putting up impressive power numbers (27 HR), getting on base (.405 OBP), showing some speed on the basepaths (17 SB), and playing above average defense all over the field (5.8 runs above average at second, 13.0 runs in the outfield). At age 28, Zorilla should have a long and eventful career ahead of him.

Nick Swisher is, quite frankly, somewhat of a disappointing choice for the starting right fielder for this club. Sure he walks a ton and has some pretty good power, but he was a wash in the field and he doesn't make as much contact as he should, hitting for just .249 on the season. Just behind him in points was Texas's Nelson Cruz, who flashed power and speed, but didn't come close to Swish in terms of plate discipline. I almost bent the rules and slotted Minnesota's Jason Kubel as the right fielder, but seeing as he played only 30 games in right field (plus another 29 in left) versus 80 games as the DH, it just didn't seem right.

The most surprising player on this team has to be Tampa Bay's Jason Bartlett, who somehow found he could use his bat extremely effectively at age 29. 14 home runs (his previous career-high was 5), 66 RBI (43), and an .879 OPS (.760, but in nearly 200 fewer plate appearances). If he can keep away from injuries AND keep up this kind of All-Star caliber production, he could find himself getting a lot of positive attention. And rounding out the order is Minnesota's sophomore leadoff man Denard Span, who played all the outfield positions in '09. He's an old school slappy hitter who doesn't have much power, but shows great discipline and plays a great center field.

This pitching staff is a little unbalanced, with all five pitchers coming from only two teams. The first three guys are from the White Sox: John Danks and soft-tossing lefty Mark Buerhle each won 13 games with low ERA's (3.77 and 3.84 respectively), but the latter also threw a perfect game. Their teammate, Gavin Floyd, led his team in strikeouts (163), but had just a .500 winning percentage and an average ERA (4.06). The next two guys are from the Devil Rays: James Shields had the highest K/BB ratio of the staff (3.21), but couldn't get his ERA under 4.00 (4.14). Matt Garza struck out the most batters (189), but only picked up 8 wins and 12 losses. Nothing too exciting from this group this year, which was an unimpressive year for pitchers in general, which almost makes one question if all this steroid testing hullabaloo is really doing anything to temper the recent offensive explosion.

Jonathan Papelbon gets this spot, despite his meltdown in the ALDS against the Angels. He had an ERA under 2 (1.85) for the third times in the last four years and saved 38 games, but struggled with his command, walking more batters than ever before. Hot on his trail is Seattle's closer David Aardsma who also saved 38 - including earning the first save of his career - in his first year as a ninth inning specialist.

Oakland's Brad Ziegler leads the middle relievers with his funky submarine delivery and low strikeout rates. A pair of Seattle right-handers, the durable Mark Lowe and Sean White, make up another two spots, continuing the trend of relievers with sub-8.0 strikeout/9 innings rates. Rays' long man Lance Cormier also didn't miss many bats, but he racked up a lot of innings and stayed away from the long ball. Lone lefty Phil Coke didn't post an extremely low ERA, but you need someone to take advantage of that platoon split.

This team's swingman, Justin Masterson, spent time with two different AL teams this year: Boston, for which he mostly pitched from the bullpen, and Cleveland, for which he mostly started. Maybe having a full season as a starter next year will allow Masterson to focus and hone some of his skills. Or perhaps he'll struggle again and find himself without a well-defined role once again.

Well that's all I've got. Hope you've enjoyed my lengthy and indulgent way to provide an overview of some of the best players in the game. But now it's time to move on to some more thoughts about different things.